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            APPENIDIX 1
            PRECOGNITION - A MEMORY OF THINGS FUTURE?
            G. Feinb--rq
            Department of Physics
            Columbia University, New York, N. Y. 10027
            To be presented at the Confr-:enze on Quantum Physics and Parapsychology
            Geneval Switzerland/ August 26 -27, 1974
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          2.
        is quite different than the above picture would suggest. Instead of forbidding
             p-ccognition from happening, these thoories typically have sufficient symmetry to sug-
        s-, ,nct pr~enomena akin to precognition should occur in a manner qualita.,./ely,
        not necessarily 'quantitatively, similar to the occurronce of retrocognition.
        phenomena involving a reversed time order of cause and effoct are generally
        ('~'C!uoed from consideration on tre ground that they have not been observed, rather
        11-n L;acause the theory forbids them. This exclusion itself introduces an element of
        6~111M;M-:)try into the physical theories, which some physicists have felt was improper,
                          2
        C;i' t-quired further explanation. Thus, if such phenomena indeed occur, no change
        i:1 fundamental equations of physics would b-- needed to describe them. Only a
        01~*,c:nge in the solutions used would be necessary.
        The details of these aspects of physics relevent to this possibility will be
        -iven laalow. However, it is worth noting first that the occurrence of physical effects
        "ropagate backwards in th-ne may be related to precognition very indirectly, To
        this, we -iote that the information about the past that is available to any person
        at a given time does not mainly consist of his sense data at that instant. Indeed, we
        usually do not think of sense data as 9;ving *~I-Dr,-.ction about the past, although
        Strictly speaking if is the past we are observing, because of the finite time required
             ~or any <nown type of signals to Prop--gate acres,. space. Instead, our information about
        past comes either from infe, es ., v e
        -en -ra,<c -,om these observations, or through the
                s
        --.a,.;:s"ood proces , IvL: cc i. w'lich we can brinj into our pr,:;s-
        :,bservation-, tno- w-~, or others, nave; made in the post, and which have
        stored in our brains.
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          3.
          A plausible analogy between information about the past and future would
          ,,u~,qcst that if information about i,-he future is available to a person at all, the main
          .,,)L)rCO Of it Might Well be observations that he'or others will make in the future, and
          will then be stored in his brain. It might L- expected that whatever the mecha-
          ism Of precognition, it could work more easily upon the future state of the percipi-
               n
          ,_%nts own brai than on the world outside. In other words, I am suggesting that pre-
          cognition, if it exists, is basically a remembrance of things future, an analogy to
          mory, rather than a perception of future events, an analogy to sense perceptions
          ~he very recent past. ihis suggestion has at least the merit of being fairly easy to
          through simple experiments, or perhaps ev_~.') through a areful literature sec~ch.
          shall spell out below some of the consequences of this model for precogni-
          'lion, and how to test it. If it is correct, it would not directly indicate th6 physical
          mechanism for precognition, any more thcn the existence of memory indicates its
                                                   a
          -*sical mechanism. However, if it does turn out that memor7 can oper te 'r,:0 the
          Mure as well as into the past, it would suggest that the symmetry of physical laws
          rnentioned above is involved, and that have been premature in discarding
          those solutions to their equations that describe, reversed time order of cause and
          effect.
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4.
1. Time Symmetry of the Equations of Physics
                   equations that describe the evolution in time of physical phenorrana
simple form according to relativity theory. A typical example, which
fl-,o main points, is the wave equation in one space dimension, whose form
2 2
                       a
2 2 P(X t)
C~ x c 3 t
                   I-L the velocity at which the waves move through space. In this equation,
~he amplitude of some wave phenomenon, and a material source for
               p the
_r instance, might represent an electric field strength, and
                     charge or current that pi.-oduces the field. In a physical zpplication of
0
                  T
Tinn, -Yva would take to be a prescribed function of spacu-, _--nd -4-ime, and
to calculate for all values of x and t The values obtained
1- -4 ~j i
\.,~i i 11Arend on the value of but in a rather,complex way. However, gen
a change in jp at one point in space and time, will lead to a change
:;t many points in space and time, in a way -prescribed by the equation. A human
7't or an instrument, sensitive to the value of in some region c,f space-time will
receive different impulses depending on the value of jp in other regions of
cnd hence will know something about what is happening in those other
                Clecrly, relc-;rion between p and is a critical factor in determining
"9ions of space-time are access;~~'3]e to c particular oLserver throigh measurement
vc~ue 0, .'-1:s locc.-"on.
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   5.
   DOCCILISC equation (1) is G S_acon~ order partial differential equation in the
   .."ric it has in general two sets of solutions. The particular form of equation (1) is
   is; I
   Zuch that one set can be obtained from the other set by the change of t into -t
   it) both 0 and in We can study the character of these 'S.olutions by considering
   ,I,e simple case in which p is a transient disturbance, such as a light bulb that is
   turned on and off in a short period of time, and is limited to a.small region of space.
   'If'/e shall call the point at whi ch p is locali.zed' xo, to . The solutions for this case
   ,~:cn then be described as follows. One solution, called retarded, has 9= 0 for all
   everywhere in space. For times after t is non-zero
   i-nes earlier than to r 0 1 0 "
   ct the points x. = x 0 -1 ct . This corresponds to the generation of two pulses
   i.YF radiation, each travelling outward from the source point at velocity c . An ob-
   server at a distance d from the polint x would detect this radiation at a time t ,
   later than t0by d/c , the time taken for the radiation to travel flne distance d
   This retarded solution is the one generally chosen to represent the physical phenomena
   de.scribed by the wave equation.
   The other solution, obtained from the retarded solution by letting t t
   is known as the advanced solution. It has the property that 0= 0 for t later than
   t everywhere in space. For 'l earlier than t is non-zero. at the points
   0 0 r
   x -i ct . This solution may be interpreted either as two puls---s of radiation
   0
   travellirig outwards from the source, but backwards in time, or as two pulses coming
   ;rom spc-,7!al inf,'nity, but forwards in Trne, to meet at the source at t0. With either
   in'lerpretation of the advanced soluficn, there is asLociated with the disturbanc--
   Cffects of times earlier than '-C~thier than later than t as for the retarded
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    6.
    'Dluti~on. An observer all- a distance d from flhe point x would'detect the radiation
    0
      ccri-Osip-nding to the advanced solution at a time t earlier than t by d/c In
    0
    CaSe of an electromagnetic wave, travelling at the speed of light, this time is
    U,UC~;Iy very short. When d corresponds to a distance of a few meters, d/c is about
    !/'M of a microsecond, so that the a0vanced notice of a disturbance available in
    this w')Y would not be'very,useful. If one considers waves propcigatin'g more slowly,
    such as sound waves, the advanced notice would be - somewhat longer, but still too
    s.,,od, to be directly useful for precognition. H
    owever, indirect effects of advanced
    ,-%!~jves ore more promising,and will be discussed below.
    Whatever use we could make of advanced waves, we must first ask whether they
    -:1'ua!Iy occur in the world, as against occurring as mathematical: solutions to equa-
    flons. The general solution to equation (1) is a linear combination of the retarded
                        cnd advanced solutions, with unknown coefficients. As mentioned above, physicists
    2
    11ave usually, although not always, supposed that the coefficient of the advanced
    solution is zero, and only the retarded one is present. The reason for this is that ad-
    vanced effects do not appear to occur, at least within some range of accuracy. The
    evidence for this is simple. If there were advanced effects comparable in size to re-
    tarded ones, many bizarre astronomical phenomena would be observed. For example,
    two images would 6a seen of a planet, or other astronomical objects, displaced by
    the distance that the object moves in 1wice 1"ne time it takes light -to go from the ob-
    iect to earth. For the planet Mc:,-_, these would be displaced by rrnore than
    the planets apparent di ameter, and wou~_-~ h--ve z-_,ar. easily defected. exam-
    j)!c is that p!ienomena that occur 2T a WC-.!,' time at the place of origin, such
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 7.
 s eruption of a solar prominence would appear to occur twice in the same spot,
 n' -orres -
 Ice c sponding to the arrival of the advanced wave, and then later corresponding
 to tl-.e c,,-;J'val of the retarded wave. Since these phenomena have not been reported by
                I
 astroncrners, we may conciude that advanced waves are- not as strongly produced as
 retard-ad waves.
 However, this does not ir,-.ply that they are not produced at all. Conceivably,
 tho raiio of strength of advanced and retarded waves is quite srinall, but not zero.
 This ~,,ould not necessarily make the advanced waves useless for precognition, but
 Would r.-Ither imply that precognition would not be as effective as ordinary percep-
  tion, ar as memory of the past, a conclusion for which there is ample evidence. Ex
 PLt'!r-iants to detect a relatively small amount of advanced light wave are not hard
 to imiagine, and I have suggested some, that may soon bee carried out by Prof. Riley
 t'ifewman of the University of California. In the simplest such experiment, a light
   -9
 source is turned on at a'time that is very sharply defined, say to within 10 seconds.
 A defector is placed at a distance of 10 meters from the source. The detector will
                                                  -8
 Ordinarily indicate the presence of the retarded wave after about 3x 10 seconds
 have passed, corresp:)nding to the transi't ti--- *of the light over the 10 meters. If
                                                         -8
 an advanced wave is also present, the detector would react to it at a time 3x 10
 seconds before the light i,. turned on, and this t1me is large enough that the ad-
 vcnced and retarded signals are easily distinguished. The consequence of not turn-
 ing on the light after the advanced signal is der,~ctecl is left to the reader to con-
 Sider. Professor Newman believes that an advanced wave of intensity as little as
 one part in 10 19 of the retarded wave could cc~~ detected in this way, so we should
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   ~-.,on know it' a6vanced electromagnetic waves occur. Advanced solutions fc. -)ther
   ...inds o'wave motion, such as 5ound can be treated by similar mathematics, How-
   ,,-;vcr, since-these motions generally involve a real medium through which the wave
   Fr~oves, such as the atmosphere, it is unclear whether the interpretation wouid L-- the
   zcmila. 1',Io experimental evidence about such advanced solutions is known to me.
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         9.
         Ill. A Model for Precognition
              In the following, I shall outline' a very speculative model for precognition
         ihat relies on advanced waves. The model is qualitative rather than quantitative,
         1 0 e brain, where detailed physical information is
         Loccuse it involves w rkings of th
              unavailable. Yet I believe that model is sufficiently precise that it can easily be
         providing that precognition can be demonstrated at all.
         We assume that when some sensory input reaches the brain, an oscillatory
         variation of some internal patterns in the brain occurs, which is specific to the input.
         '1:iis oscillation persists for some period of time in at least part of the brain. When
              per on involved remembers the stimulus, what has happened is that the stored
         or,cillatory pattern has influenced another part of the brain, bringing the memory
         Into consciousness, or at least into soma-ming accessible to consciousness. Those
         fami liar with the literature on memory willi recognize that I have given a very sketchy
         description of one model for short term memory. There is some indication that long
         term memory involves rather different mechanisms.
         Suppose now that the oscillc%)ry pattern set up by an external stimulus has
         not only a retarded part, which propagates forward in time, but also an advanced
         part, propagating backwards in time. Althouq~-, we Go not know what equations
         pattern would satisfy, it is not impla~;soble that these equations are sufficiently
         similar ~o Eq. (1) that both types of solution exist. As in the case of light waves,
         ';'t-je relative amounts of the two fhc,~ ;.-volved .-, an actual situation is not de-
         'ermined by the equation, and must ~c decided by experiment. I sholl assume that
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      ih-a advanced part is non-zero, buf Dresurnably smaller thanthe retarded part, since
      Precognition in practice is not a very effective way of getting information. Since
      4",le retarded part of the oscillation, which in this model allows memory of the past
      TO occur, is known to persist for at least some time, without great attenuation, it is
      ,p_-ssible but not certain, that the advanced oscillation would be able to propagate
      i.or a corresponding time into the past before the stimulus occurs. So' of least over
      ,.-,s period of time, by a process similar to nnemory of the past, it could be possible
      lor the advanced pattern to be brought into consciousness, so that the person involved
      'd
      C
      ~ U remember" the future stimulus connected with the advanced pattern.
      This in brief outline is the model or precognition that I wish to consider.
      'Ih~~re are several qualitative features of this model that can be simply recognized.
      1). One can only "remember" things that one will eventually sense, or leaYn about
           someone else's report. At least this is the case if one disregards the possibil-
      iry of extrasensory information to be obtained at a later time and rememLerd by this
      mcchani-sm at an earlier time. While this neglect may not be entirely listified, it
      would seem a useful working hypothesis, since, in.any event, the amount of informa-
      tion obtained by extraspnsory means i~~ small compared to the other sources I am con-
      siderina.
      2). If the retarded oscillctory pafter,n is correlated with short term memory, and if
      t~,e latter has a relatively short term of o,peration, then we will expect that the ad-
      ~'Gnced pattern would also have a similarly short range into the post. This would imply
      tho', Precognition would be 7-:1fective onil for evE~nts in the not very distant future,
      or, the scale hours. Within time period, precognition would be exp~acted
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     lo show a "decay" curve similar to that shown by ordinary memory. Thus precognition
     "Vould become easier as tile percipient approached to events more closely in time.
     However, if precognition became a well controlled ability, it would become
     possible to "pass" information back indefinitely into the past. For example, suppose
     someone were going to observe an earthquake at noon,,and became aware of it pre-
     ~::cqniiiv ely at 11:45. He could Nyrite out the sentence "There will be an earthquake
     at noon", and show it to other people.- The recording of this sentence would then
     iiself become a new stimulus, which could Le recognized precognitively sometime
     ~-:~Fore it was real, or ideally, more than the 15 minutes warning gained by the imag-
     ine-d precognition. This process could be repeated indefinitely, and so the
     v~crning time increased indefinitely. Of course, several paradoxical results can be
     reached in this way, and these will be alluded to L-low.
     There should be little or no correlation between the spofial locati6n of the
     primary event and the ability to precognize it. This is because precognition is oper-
     ofing-on the future state of the percipients own brain, rather than directly oil the dis-
     tant event. For example, if there were a supernova explosion in a distant galaxy,
     Whose light will reach earth 15 minutes from now, precognition would be able to
     joive a warning of that explosion sometime b-efore the light reaches earth, about as
     Well as it could about an event that occurs in the percipients immediate vicinity,
     4). We would expect that the same types of external and internal factors that are
     known to effect ordinary memory, sich as drugs, fatigue, age and training mighi bee
     "POcted to have similar effects on precognition. The demonstration of such differ-
     "fic;l effects would of course be very exciting for parapsychological studies.
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      5). . If we omit from consideration the precognitive "chains" discussed under 2) above,
      ii should not be possible for anyone to precognize about any event that will occur
      c:;Ier thot perso ns death, since no sensory input about that event could ever reach his
      brain. This conclusion is independent of the length of.time that the advanced p t rn
                                                     at e
      can propagate into the past. It is consistent with one old legend to.the effect that
      Ovophets cannot foretell their own death, but inconsistent with other* legends. Of
      course, even if it is true that precognition cannot be used to foresee ones own death,
      other explanations are available to account for this.. and it is therefore not a pre-
      .1icrion very specific to the present model.
      These properties that preecogn-tion should satisfy according to this model
      Suggest a number of experimental tests of the validity of the model. Several of these
      t-,.~sts will be discussed in the next section.
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  13.
  IV. Tests of the Future Memory Model of Precognition
  In order for a model or explanation of any phenomena to have any value, it
  1~-,ust IL2 possible to confront it with experimental tests, or to make new observations
  0 4~ the phenomena about which the model makes specific predictions. This is not
  :Icrd to do for the "future memoryll model of precognition, provided always that we
  I F
  W:.va Tairly definite evidence that precognition is occurring in a specific instance.
  The simplest aspect of the model to test is probably the prediction that a
  i-Ircipient can precognize only those things he will eventually know through ordinary
  ,r:erception.. In order to test this prediction, one might first make a search of the
  ;*'er ature on precognition to see whether accurate predictions have been made under
  conditions that preclude the obtaining of the information by the percipient at anytime
  after the prediction was made. If this turns out to be the case, it would be evidence
  against the model.
  A more convincing test would involve an experiment, designed for the purp.Dse.
  The simplest vers ion of this might bee a precognition test in which the results are not
  ever revealed to the A slightly more sophisticated version would involve a
  randomized deci~"on pattern for revealing tF.-=. data a fixed time after the trial. A
  comparison of the rate of success when the data are revealed as against those in which
  they are not could indicate the validityIor invalidity of the model even if the evel
       F
  ol preco-nition was low.
  A possible objection to such experiments is that it is difficult to ensure that
    the oblect will never have access to the data at any future time. However, if point
  i
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  2) OLove is correct, information obtained long after the trial has taken place would
  useless, because of the decay of the advanced pattern at times long before it is
  ostablished.' A test of this point can also Le carried out along the lines describeed
  ClLove, if it is found that the basic effect exists. To do this, it would be necessary to
  I
  _.ve information about the data to the percipient at various time intervals after the
  cl, and investigate how the success rate of precognition would vary with this -;ime
  d iay. If the model is correct, there should be a dependence on time delay that is
  1:milar to the dependence of short term memory on the time lapse after the initiating
  s~lrnulus. I am assurning here that there is no precognitive equivalent for long term
  r-,,3rnory, as the latter appears to involve a kind of static chemical storage, rather than
  (-..i oscillating pattern in the brain. If this assumption were wrong, the particular test
  just described would give -negative results, and precognition would be possible of any
  event up to the death of the percipient. This possibility, while it should be kept in
  m, ind, seems less likely to me.
  Another testable aspect of the model is that the success rate of precognition
  should not depend on the spatial location, or any other physical attributes of the
  event being precognized. This could be tested by varying such attributes of the tar-
  set, but k&eping the information about it eventually furnished to the percipient, and
  the time advance, constant. Under these condi-ilons the success rate would not be ex-
  Pected to vary, even if th_a target is at astronomical distances, or is extremely well
  shielded. These propertie.- are in qualitative agreement with some onecdoted reports
  Of Precognition. I
  Finally, if the model is c:)rrect, wewouldexpect precognitive ability to vary
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  15.
  ~:-,reatly from person to person, just as short term memory does. In fact, it is possible
  1~-,ct the same people that have' good short term memories would also be good of pro-
  cc-~jnitlon, although that connection is not definite. Nevertheless, it would be worth
  p--ople with good memories for precognitive abilities. Furthermore, it should
  "j. possible to improve precognitive ability by using the techniques that are used to
  Improve short term memory'. Probably, -;nese techniques would im r*
  I p ove the accessibi I
  ify of the advanced pattern to the conscious mind, rather than affecting the absolute
  n;-i-iount of advanced pattern generated by the event. The latter amount is probably
  by the basic laws by which the brain operates, and not subject to altera-
  flon by training.
  I believe that if a series of experiments of the type deicriL--d is carried out
  -iHi a subject who has real precognitive ability, it would definitely decide whether
  ttha r-,iemory model of precognition is valid. Perhaps what is even more important,
     xp-ariments would furnish much new information about precognition, which would
  Le usoful in ony case, even if the model should prove wrong.
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          V. Conclusions and Discussion
               Since I believe in a materialist description of natural phenomena, including
          'chose involving human b--ings, I Lalieve that if advanced effects occur in the human
          ~raln, they must occur elsewhere in the world, since brains are made of the same kind
          or matter as other objects are. It --herofore appears plausible to me that if the future
          memory model of precognition is valid, that it should also be.possible to detect ad-
          vanced effects outside of the human brain, perhaps in the type of experiment that Dr.
          N'ewman plans to carry out. Conversely, if his experiments gave a positive result,
          Showing that advanced effects do occur, it would lead more credence to the idea that
          -,a, yare what is involved in precognition. Even if the advanced effects are very
          sma I Icompared with the retarded ones, this would not rule out theL- playing a role in
          brain proc.esses, pi~ovided that they are larger than the "noise" background. It would
          be interesting to estimate how small the ratio of advanced to retarded effects could
          :~e in the brain, and sti I I ha,,e the advanced effects be useful; but I have not tried to
          do this.
               F'hysicisfs hove sometimes raised the objection that any occurrence of ad-
          vanced effects in nature would lead to unavoidable paradoxes, and causal anomalies.
          Careful analysis of this question has not substantiated this claim,2 but file question
          is not completely closed. However, it should be recognized that if such problems
          exist, they would als o occur just -i7rom the existence of precognition, whatever the
          Physical interpretation of the'phenomenon. The analyses that have been carried out
          Of possible causal anomalies to advanced effects could usefully L,-- applir0d to the
          precognition directly, rather than to its physical interpretation. I believe that file
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        m
   ifed accuracy of precognition, and especially the impossibility of knowing whether
   given precognition will turn out to be accurate until after the 'event has occurred,
   e,iiminafe th.e POS5 ibility of such causal anomalies, but it would be worthwhile to carry
   .,,e analysis through.
   Finally, it would be interesting to follow up on a suggestion that is sometime's
   o%,-de, and investigate the extent 11-o which all valid reports of extrasensory perception
   ~,M L-e explained in forms of ordinary perception, combined with precognition. My
   imPression is that many such reports can bee so explained, but I do not know if they
   'I ran be. If it were possible to do so, this would mark a substantial advance in our
   t:nderstan.ding of those phenomena, and.in linking them to other aspects of the physical
   world that we know better.
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   References
   Sne for example, J. B. Rhine,
           The Reach of the Mind (William Sloane
   Associates/ New York, 1947).
   For example, R. P. Feynman and J. A. Wheeler, Review of Modern Physics,
   17, 157 (1945).
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