S E C R E T
Approved For Release -90VERNMENT
DATE: 10 FEB 1989 memorandum
REPLY TO
ATTN OF: DB- 5C
isuBjEcT.- Evaluation of SUNSTREAK Reporting on U.S. Hostages'(S)
TO: DT
1. (S/NF/SS-3) SUMMARY: While a complete and accurate evaluation of
the use of SUNSTffE-AKreporting on U.S. hostages cannot be conducted until
additional hostage releases occur, 'preliminary findings indicate that
the SUNSTREAK program does, indeed, represent an additional source of
positive, hostage-related information. At a minimum, SUNSTREAK reporting
stimulates analytic deliberation, may help focus and guide collection
efforts, and forces reevaluation of extant theories and methodologies.
Moreover, experience with SUNSTREAK hostage-related reporting over the
past year revealed several instances of startling corroboration of other
intelligence collection disciplines (on both locational and health issues)
and an impressive logical consistency amidst the complex factional morass
that is Lebanon. In short, SUNSTREAK reporting, even in the absence of
corroborating evidence that could be provided by a released hostage, is
assessed to be as reliable and accurate on locational issues as many other
sources of hostage-related information emanating from Lebanon. The
SUNSTREAK program represents yet another source of information and
stimulation for the intelligence analyst.
2. (S/NF SS-3) LOCATIONAL DATA: On the issue of loCational information,
SUNSTREAK reporting has been remarkably logical despite the complex and
dynamic nature of Lebanese territorial and factional strife. The odds
pinpointing a hostage location that would be completely illogical in the
Lebanese context are great. For example a location that fell in an area
3. (S/NF/SS-3) On at least one occasion. SUNSTREAK
SG1C
rting on Higgins'
SGIC
WARNING NOTICE: This information restricted CLASSIFIED BY DT
to those with verified access to SUNSTREAK DECLASSIFY ON OADR OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10
(REV. 1-80)
L@vel 3 (SS-3). OSAFPMR(41CFR) 101-11.0
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4. (S/NF/SS-3) HEALTH INFORMATION: While no accurate assessment can
be made at t h Ts-t i me on SUNSTREAK reports dealing with health
dynamics--swings in physical and mental well-being--the overall picture
presented by SUNSTREAK is consistent with judgments made by the Intelligence
Community. Moreover. the health dvnamic nortraved hv S1lN1.;TRFAK rpnnrtr
SG1 B Despite periodic news and intelligence reports that
certain -hostages had died, SUNSTREAK reports have consistently and
emphatically assessed all the hostages to be alive. DIA agrees with the
assessment, and recent reporting strongly indicates the same.
5. (S/NF/SS-3) COMMENT: Our initial assessment is that SUNSTREAK reporting
shows great pr6-m-iseon the issues of hostage locations, but, much less
potential for predicting future or sequential events. Furthermore, reports
generated as a result of focusing on a single hostage (rather than the
hostage issue as a whole) appear to have a higher degree of accuracy.
S E C R E T
SG1 B
SG1J
SPECIAL ACCESS REQUIRED
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