Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 (S/NF/LIMDIS) TASK @91004): What are the political/military indicators, and possible location of indicators, that would precede an imminent Iraqi attack, if any? (S/NF/LIMDIS BACKGROUND): This tasking was responded to by Sources 018 (A)j' 025 (B), 049 (C), 052 (D),.and 079 (E). S/NF/LIMDIS) response. DT-S RESPONSE: Appendix A provides the DT-S (S/NF/LIMDIS) DB ASSESSMENT OF THE DT-S RESPONSE: Appendix B provides this assessment. In sum, the DB (OICC) assessment was marginal at best, and the feedback provided as to the rationale for the assessment was less than satisfactory. on the other hand, it is difficult to evaluate predictive responses with time frames. In some cases the predictive response may have been reality at the time it was made; however, there may have been mitigating circumstances as to why an event did or did not occur. The value of the DT-S response is that of a tip-off for collectors, somewhat akin to indications and warning. In other words, because a predictive event did not occur does not make the response invalid. Referral Review by NIMA/DoD SG1 H Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 Approved For Release 2003/09/11 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 SECRET DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE AGENCY DT-9-1025-SL SUMMHHY REPORT (U) PROJECT 9 1004 2 4 Januarij 199 1 N0F01W SECRET UNDIS Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 41p,06wk 4 Approved For Release ZU03799/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 PROJECT 91004 REPRODUCTION REQUIRES APPROVAL OF ORIGINATOR OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY. FURTHER DISSEMINATION ONLY AS DIRECTED BY DT OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY. 24 JANUARY 1991 NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS CLASSIFIED BY:. DIA/DT DECLASSIFY ON: OADR. Approved For Release 20QbffV'bm'L-A 0789ROO2900240001-4 0 L. V F\ Tor Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 TABLE OF CONTENTS PURPOSE II BACKGROUND III TASK IV CAVEATS V RESPONSES VI REMARKS Approved For Release 2003/09/11 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 PAGE I I 1 1 1 4 Approved For Release 2003/09/11 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 PROJECT 91004 I. (U) PURPOSE: (U) This report documents follow on to project 90104, task A. II. (U) BACKGROUND: (S/NF/LIMDIS) Project 90104 initiated a series of tasks concerning the Iraqi situation. One of these, task A, requested political/military indicators, and possible location of indicators, that would precede an imminent Iraqi attack, if any. Previous reporting on task A occurred on 30 October 1990. (U) Preliminary data from this task for some of the sources was presented in an MFR on 15 Jan 91. (U) Task completion was delayed due to higher priority tasking received on 15 Jan 91. III. (U) TASK: (U) Tasking was.presented as a direct question as identified in the above request. (U) This task will be updated frequently. IV. (U) CAVEATS: (S) Predictive aspects of this task should be updated frequently (i.e., in 1-2 week periods). V. (U) RESPONSES: a. (U) SOURCE 018: (1) (U) DATE OF INFORMATION (DOI): 16 Jan 91. (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: Preemptive Iraqi strikes are not anticipated in the near future (1-2 weeks). - Weather (rainstorms) will be a problem,in the southern area in 3-5 days (19-21 Jan). Approved For Release 20gMMM 900240001-4 Approved For Release 206197711' CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240001-4 - Some heavy equipment movement (east to west) is anticipated in near term in Kuwait (area A on FIG 1). Within 1-3 days (i.e., 17-19 Jan 91), Iraq will launch missiles (into S Arabia areas): o Front line troops will not advance. - Future potential strikes may occur in area B, FIG 1. - Iraq may have two "special" weapons: o Some type of "interference" device that causes electronic/mechanical equipment to "freeze up" or (lose effectiveness). 0 Some type of energetic/beam-type device may be located in the sand.in area C, FIG 1. b. M SOURCE 025: (1) M DOI-- 16 Jan 91. (2) M DATA SUMMARY: - Iraqi preemptive action is not anticipated until after February 1991: 0 A surprise attack may occur from the Kuwait side in early February. - This conflict will result in a new Iraq leader by the April time frame. C. M SOURCE 049: (1) M DOI: 15 Jan 91. (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS) DATA SUMMARY: - There will be considerable aircraft activity (North, toward Turkey border): o, Some old, slow (transport-like) aircraft are involved. - Large groups of obJects, now buried in the sand, will be uncovered. - Something like communications, or command and control, with lower ranking individuals will be shutdown (or turned off): 2 Approved For Release 20VfflV"^l9ftQ"9"0 02900240001-4 0 CAjKr. I MEM .-4 /V YR A 4 e. p a OP7@_ S Ma qi 06 Ak, r Bal _4111110 IL f9 W A! NIGN 4 9.L" C K _Z Cl q anda S, Mhl" !I.,f r@ f @-- J lp"; Be.%, 1. 73, 'q0baV3 5le'l '7.. Oki Q.ruj on. liat 'd- DO n.z s mm" z E ORAN.... I! 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