Approved For Release 2004/08/25 :CIA-RDP96-007898003600330001-6
 SECFlET
 DT-5- I01~ -5L
 DEFENSE
 INTELLIGENCE
 AGENCY
 5UI1lIRAAY AEPUAT (U)
 PROJECT 9190
 14 Januar~,J 1991
 No~~
 SECRET
 LI~SDIS
 Approved For Release 2004/08/25 :CIA-RDP96-007898003600330001-6
 Approved For Release ~ CI~4~96-007898003600330001-6
 PROJECT 91002
 REPRODUCTION REQUIRES APPROVAL OF
 ORGINATOR OR HIGHER DOD .AUTHORITY.
 FURTHER DISEMINATION ONLY AS DIRECTED
 BY DT OR HIGHER DOD AUTHORITY.
 14 JANUARY 1991
 CLASSIFIED BY:  DIA/DT
 DECLASSIFY BY:  OADR
 1~OT RFL'EASABZE TG FOREIGR RATIOR'A~'
 Approved For Release 20a~~6~0789R003600330001-6
 A  roved For Release ~~ CIRP96-007898003600330001-6
 pp
 PROJECT 91002
 SUMMARY
 1.  (S/NF/LIMDIS)  TASK:   Describe key events/incidents
 significant to the Iraqi situation far the near term period
 (7-31 Jan 91>.
 2.  (U)  PRIOR REPORTING:   This is a general follow-up to
 tasking for project 90104 report on 30 Oct 1990 and on b Nov
 1990.  Project 91002 was initiated on 7 Jan 1991.
 3.  (U)  RESPONSES:
 a.  (U)  SOURCE 025:
 (1)  (U)  DATE OF INFORMATION:  7 Jan 91
 (2)  (S/NF/LIMDIS}  DATA SUMMARY:
 -  Peace talks will fail and will resume in
 the Middle East in the March time frame.
 (b)   War situation:
 -  War will break out in February and last
 2-3 'months:
 o  US casualties will occur (700-2000),
 mostly  in  Kuwait.
 o  Hussein will eventually withdraw from
 Kuwait.
 o  War will be fast and furious.
 -  By April, Iraq will have a new leader.
 -  Some US troops will be in Kuwait through
 August.
 b.  (U)  SOURCE 049:
 <1)  (U)  DATE OF INFORMATION:  12-13 January 1.991.
 (2)  (S/NF/LIMDIS)  DATA SUMMARY:
 <a)  War situation:
 -  War outbreak is imminent.   ,
 Approved For Release 2
 9~00789R003600330001-6
 ~~,,. ,~
 A  roved For Release8125 : CIA-RDP96-007898003600330001-6
 pp
 -  Great indecision or bewilderment mood
 exists (on both sides)
 {b)   Hussein:
 -  There seems to. be an older relative of
 Hussein who may (or should) emerge that is in
 a position to influence and possibly negate
 Hussein's stance.
 -  This person (possibly) an uncle) was very
 adept at maneuvering members of Hussein's
 family, and had great influence on Hussein
 when he was a teenager.
 c.   (U)  SOURCE 079:
 (1>  (U)  DATE OF INFORMATION:  14 January 1991.
 (2) (S/NF/LIMDIS)  DATA SUMMARY:
 {a)  War Situation:
 -  President Bush will announce evening of 14
 January 1991 that there will not be a war
 with Iraq.
 -  Hussein agreed to some type of
 negotiation.
 -  Iraqi troops will remain in Kuwait for the
 near future, but-they will eventually be
 removed within the next 2-3 months.
 -  Some small skirmishes (on water) may occur
 US
 Situation will remain tense.
 Yemen will be a source of trouble for the
 (b)   Terrorist Attacks:
 - None are perceived (in the US) in the near
 future.
 4.  (S/N,S/LIMDIS)  COMMENTS:
 a.  Of above, source 079 is most experienced...
 b.  This pro3ect will be kept current with frequent updates.
 Approved For Release 2004/0 ~ 0~9R003600330001-6