Approved For Release 2000/08/08 =.916-00789R003000W9%_2STATES GOVERNMENT mem-orandum DATE: 12 December 1990 REPLY TO: -490/DT ATTN OF DT S SUBJECT: Project SUN STREAK (U) TO: l.' (S/NF) The attached assessments focus on both the DB and DT-S responses to questions posed by the DD; the DB assessment of the DT-S responses; the overall assessment; and actions required to more fully evaluate the DB/DT-S inputs (enclosures 1 - 8). This process was designed to maximize objectivity and reduce/eliminate subjectivity. 2. (S/NF) Overall, the evaluation of the data presented is mixed. The accuracy of the assessment and the value assigned to the DT-S responses are, in some cases, inconsistent. In order to more fully evaluate the DT-S response, recommendations, where necessary, have been made at each enclosure for DB/DT-S follow-on action. SG1J 9 Enclosures: 1.-S. Assessments (S/NF),l Cy Project Officer 9. Evaluation Summary Directorate for Scientific (S/NF),l Cy and Technical Intelligence Classified by- NOT RELEASABLETO FOREIGN IWIDNALS Approved For Release 2000/08/0 awf96-00789ROO3000230002-2 OPTIONAL FORM NO. 10 (REV. 1-80) GSAFPMR(41CFR) 101-11.5 5010-114 * U.S. GPO: 1990-262-081/90286 SG1C Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 :-S"~T-00789ROO3000230002-2 KEY INTELLIGENCE ASSUMPTION (KIA) 1. (SAF) KIA: An Iraqi preemptive attack is not anticipated in the near future (next 3-4 weeks). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes No 3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? Dil Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (5) No Value (Circle response.) C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) spo". 11~ 7) ~ J )/ IL D . NAME OFFICE ploy P.ELE~'A8ABLF. TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 -qE-CA~1-00789ROO3Qt9o4Q6B4le4~~ SG1A Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : SE~RFET-00789ROO3000230002-2 2. (S/NF) KIA: Terrorist activity against U.S. and coalition forces is not anticipated for the near future. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes U2 No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? .(Circle response.) ORMajor Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional I r, azo f? i -S1 P,QAV 44, D. NAME comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) 0-- ' ~/, 4.." &,-f A uSex io f OFFICE NOT KLWARLE-10 FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 UQZI-00789RO030W Approved For Release 2000/.08/08 '=ET-00789ROO3000230002-2 3. (S/NF) KIA: There may be terrorist support/development activity, or possibly some type of future staging in vicinity of Biji Tikrit - Al Fatha (NW of Baghdad). Activity has: - chemical association - cylindrical objects/equipment involved - sensing/detection equipment involved. A. Is this assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No Unsure J. Are the activities listed above accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No D3) Unsure C. What is the value of the KIA? (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (S)) Low Value .(5) No Value (Circle response.) D. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) E. NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASABLE. TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 A-EDP96-00789ROO SMET SG1C Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Next 1 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 43 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 91 rMT00789R003000230002-2 4. '(S/NF) KIA: Use of chemical weapons by Iraq against U.S. and coalition forces in Saudi Arabia will NOT OCCUR in the near future (3-4 weeks). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No (~ Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1).Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) r0 D. NAME OFFICE ,NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/UQlAArIP96-00789ROO3,,,~, SG1C Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Next 10 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 WM-00789ROO3000230002-2 T 8. '(S/NF) KIA: Hostages have been neither tortured nor well-treated. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No Q:(~3) )nsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance ,~ADi gh Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) f D. NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASABLE TO FOr%EIGN KATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08ZRL16-00789*0M SG1C Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Next 6 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/OESEGRE~96-00789ROO3000230002-2 13. (S/NF) KIA: Fuel-air explosives will not be used in the near future (i.e., next 3-4 weeks). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes 9 No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) ~(I))Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) 9,rL,~ FA t5 M Wj 0'4 D. NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASAUSTO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 W-916-0078369WO0230002-22 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 SUUT6-00789ROO3000230002-2 14.'(S/NF) KIA: There are indications that the Iraqis will possibly use fuel-air explosives in the 8 November 1990 time frame. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes &No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (05 No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) I-V 4 D. NAME OFFICE NOT RELEASABLIE, TO FOREtGN NA'nONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 Q(-AU-00789R10g0V06a300042z-2 SG1C Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08: CIQ-F*%rMC-M789R003000230002-2 V 11-0 L I.. OTHER TASK RESPONSES By DT-S (S/NF) Other Data: On 22 October 1990, the following information was provided that may be of interest, although not directly related to tasking: a. Egypt will play a significant role in future peace negotiations. b. The U.N. will continue to increase its role in negotiations. c. A name "Camaru/Kamaru" is important (presumably in regard to peace negotiations). d. More hostages will be released during November 1990. (U) DB Assessment and DT-3 Evaluation Response: (Appendices A thru D.) Classified b Declassify on-0,4-b. wq P,--,,zPSAI3LET0 FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 :BEONT-OO789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08: SECUST-00789ROO3000230002-2 16. (S/NF) KIA: Egypt will play a significant role in future peace negotiations. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) 8 Yes (2) No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (O)Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) D. NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Confirmed. (U) Follow-on Action: None. NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/08 W-916-007891~ ~3O 02 Approved For Release 2000/08/08STCI"-00789ROO3000230002-2 L P 17.' (S/NF) KIA: The UN will continue to increase its role in negotiations. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No 30 Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value Low Value (5) No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) D. NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Confirmed. (U) Follow-on Action; None. NOT RELEASABLE-70 FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/OSEC P1k&;6-00789R00aAftqA`1 Approved For Release 2000108108: KQRE10078911~03000230002-2 18.,(S/NF) KIA: A name "Camaru/Kamaru" is important (presumably in regard to peace negotiations). A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) (1) Yes (2) No (ff~)Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) D. NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation.: Unconfirmed. (U) Follow-on Action:. None. NOT RELEASABLE TO FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08/OSECRET96-00789ROO39WO24-P6V4(~2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08: SUR900789RO03000230002-2 19.,(S/NF) KIA: More hostages will be released during November 1990. A. Is the assessment accurate? (Circle response.) ~0 )) Yes (2) No (3) Unsure B. What is the value of the KIA? (Circle response.) (1) Major Significance (2) High Value (3) Of Value (4) Low Value (a No Value C. Provide additional comments/rationale, if desired. (Optional) D . NAME OFFICE (U) Evaluation: Confirmed. (S/NF) Follow-on Action: DT-S should be requested to update and to focus on the release of U.S. hostages prior to 15 January 1991 deadline for Iraq to leave Kuwait. NOT RELEASABLE-70 FOREIGN NATIONALS Approved For Release 2000/08J ~QUT96-00789RO03d Cl~~ SG1C Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000230002-2