Research of Anomalous Mental Phenomena Proof-of-Principle and Protocols by Edwin C. May, Ph.D. Science Application International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Menlo Park, California 30 March 1993 LO 0 U- 0 BRIEFING OBJECTIVE Q Q Q Q Lo co Q Q Q m Q Q PROVIDE RETROSPECTIVE VIEW OF EVIDENCE FOR PROOF-OF-PRINCIPLE c0 PROVIDE DETAILED PROTOCOL FOR REPLICATION 2 c0 a a a a N 0 LL 0 r BRIEFING OUTLINE 0 0 to CV) 0 DEFINITION OF TERMS SCHEMATIC PROTOCOL FOR A SINGLE TRIAL -Three Examples of Data CD ANALYSIS - Rank-order Tests P (0 Fuzzy Sets 0 RETROSPECTIVE VIEW N -Statistical Criteria - 7j Literature Reviews D 0 LL 0 L_ CL CL 4F~ I ME I L.-6 BRIEFING OUTLINE 11 CD CD CD W) m CD CD CD m CD CD 00 I- C) C) CD CD CD CD CD 7a') 0 LL 0 L_ CL CL * REQUIREMENTS FOR REPLICATION Power Analysis Personnel Selection Target Pool Selection - Trial Protocol - Analysis /Control Criteria for "*Success Estimated Person-Hours Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Cn CD 4 0 0 Iz C/) > 0 -0 C: (Z) Z 0 :3 m 0 = 3 CD CD 0 3 CD CD 0 =r > z 0 > S C C/) m z - i > -17 m z 0 m z > Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 ANOMALOUS COGNITION -A DEFINITION LO M co U) C9 (1) 7a) 0 LL ANOMALOUS COGNITION. A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are absent. That is, some individuals are able to gain access, by an as yet unknown process, to information that is not available to the known sensorial channels. Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q N 0 LL 'a (1) > 0 L_ CL CL RESEARCH MATERIALS SINGLE TRIAL TARGET -.Outdoor Scene - Photographs - Physical Object - Geometric Shape Symbol RESPONSE - Written/Drawn -AudioNideo Tape ANALYSIS Fuzzy Sets - Rank Order (e.g.,Golden Gate Bridge)., (e.g.,Paris) (e.g.,Feather) (e.g. Star) , (e.g.,7, H) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q N 0 LL 'a (1) > 0 L_ CL CL co C) co C) C) Q C) C*4 0) U) m (1) 7a') w L- 0 LL 'a (1) 0 L- CL a- Approved For Release 20 Z 0 C) m m 0 m m Jj m U) Cf) m Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDIP96-00,7,89ROO3000350001 -0 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Approved Foe Rel6ia- s-e-2000108/08': CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Vol wo OSI wo yo t ,.ja or r 1wifiv 00nmer, 607W % Ole. (0 1 Iri/ . 0 0 . I Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 c Approvr d For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO300035000.1 -0 irk in Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3000350001 -0 RANK-ORDER ANALYSIS OF A SINGLE AC RESPONSE Q Q Q Q 00 I- Q Q Q N THE TARGET WAS SELECTED RANDOMLY FROM 100 -20 Packs of 5 Targets Each- Pack Chosen First -Given the Pack, the Target is Randomly Chosen o This particular pack contains the target and 4 non-targets (Decoys). ANALYST'S TASK Rank-order the 5 Photographs in the pack from the Best to the Worst Match to the Given Response Original Order Rank Order Match Number Target 1 Target 3 1 st Place Target 2 Target 4 2nd Place Target 3 Response - Target 2 3rd Place a7 Target 4 Target I 4th Place Target 5 Target 5 5th Place Q Q Q Q Q 00 I- Q Q 00 Q 00 Q Q Q Q N (D U) C9 0 U_ > 0 FUZZY SET ANALYSIS OF A SINGLE AC RESPONSE ~ 100 TARGETS PREVIOUSLY CODED AS FUZZY SETS OF VISUAL ELEMENTS Intended Target is Selected Randomly ~ RESPONSE IS CODED AGAINST THE SAME UNIVERSAL SET ~ COMPUTATIONS (i.e., Normalized Fuzzy Intersections) Accuracy: The Percent of the Target which is Described Correctly - Reliabilily: The Percent of the Response which is Correct - Figure-of-Merit (FM): Accuracy x Reliability ~ FMs ARE COMPUTED FOR ALL 100 TARGETS AND ORDERED ~ PROBABILITY VALUES ARE DETERMINED BY LOCATION OF THE INTENDED TARGET'S FM IN THE LIST AMMMKAW- MR %IW~ I Q Q Q Q Q Q Q M Q Q Q N 0 U) 0 U- > 0 L- CL CL RETROSPECTIVE: STATISTICAL CRITERIA I CONSIDER THE FOLLOWING TWO EXPERIMENTS Coin Flips(l): n=500, Heads=275 z 2 (Heads - E2) Fn 2.249 p :5 0.01 Coin Flips(2): n=250, Heads=138 Z = 1.589 p :5 0.06 COMBINED RESULTS n=750, Heads=413 Z 2.789 p 0.003 Q Q Q Q Q co I- Q Q co Q co Q Q Q Q N cu (1) 7a') 0 LL 0 L- CL CL A~AF I RETROSPECTIVE: STATISTICAL CRITERIA 11 EFFECT SIZE (ES) co -Coin Flips(l): n=500, Heads=275, Z=2.24, p < 0.01 r Cp IN z ES 0.10 Fn -Coin Flips(2): n=250, Heads=138, Z=1.58, 0.06 c0 Q W ES = 0.10 CD to Z 0 U_ Q c*4 -Combined Results: n=750, Heads=413, Z=2.78, p-< 0.003 ES 0.10 0 LL > /me Y &-6 LITERATURE REVIEWS (META-ANALYSIS) ANOMALOUS COGNITION COMPLEX TARGETS - H. E. Puthoff and R. Targ, Proceedings of the IEEE,. 1976 o n=39, ES=1.13±0.16, Z=7.06, p < 8.5 x 10-13 - 1. L. Child, American Psychologist, 1985 o n =83, ES=0.51 ±0.1 1, Z=4.61, p < 2.0 x 10-6 - D. J. Bem and C. Honorton, Psychological Bulletin, 1993 J. M. Utts, Statistical Sciences., 1991 o n=355, ES=0.20±0.05, Z=3.73, p < 9.6 x 10-5 ANOMALOUS COGNITION -SYMBOL TARGETS C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, Journal of Parapsychology 1989 o nF-,to 2 x 106, ES=0.020±0.002, Z= 10, p < 8 X 10-24 AA~~Affr ---