Tf'WM0WM,F,91 Release 2001/03/8f,~W-RDP96-00789R9Qijp9o~1049plip Iq > C'_ Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition Prepared by: Edwin C. May, Ph.D. and Nevin D. Lantz 2 December 1991 AW Science ApplicatiOnS International Coiporation An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: The Scientific Oversight Committee Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory 1010 El Camino Real, Suite 330 Menlo Park, California 94025 10 10 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P. 0. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 - (415) 325-8292 OthAp~ffftM'PofoRL&FftSL6Pr2ODlM/07,'QsCiALIMF'96~.OMMMIMIV01 T000115 UNEDITED DRAFT TeAWRYM@Wfo%M 10001 -5 DRAFT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................... iii I OBJECTIVE ................................................................ 1 11 INTRODUCTION ........................................................... 2 III APPROACH ................................................................ 4 1. Target-pool Selection ..................................................... 4 2. Target Perparation ....................................................... 4 3. Target Selection ......................................................... 8 4. Receiver Selection ....................................................... 8 5. Sender Selection ......................................................... 9 6. Session Protocol ......................................................... 9 7. Analysis ............................................................... 10 8. Hypotheses ............................................................ 10 IV DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................ 12 1. Null Result ............................................................ 12 2. Significant Deviations ................................................... 12 V GLOSSARY ............................................................... 14 REFERENCES ..................................................................... 15 APPENDIX ........................................................................ 16 Approved For Release 2MWMTfUE7-D &M- ffP96-00789ROO31 00110001 J5 -'I- invWtEm:Ra*Asoci2fiQILQWD~7eacChka INN10 DRAFT 110001-5 LIST OF FIGURES 1. City with a Mosque . ............................................................. 5 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Target (Macro-pixel, 3,3) ...................... 6 3. City with Mosque (I AS I = 1.98 bits/0.25 jn2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 4. Pacific Islands (I AS I = 1.35 bits/0.25 inz) ......................... ................. 7 5. Zener Target Cards (Average I AS 0. 15 hits/0.25 in ............. ................. 7 Approved For Release AW17077 CW'096-00789R@031 00110001 J6 TAWR)&?dqbt@r-%AaA@ ;Map7n@&Ai -J1PR&-9AZ§MQJP01 10001 -5 DRAFT LIST OF TABLES 1. Effect Size as a Function of Target T@rpe ............................................ 3 2. Potential Correlation of AS with Effect Size ......................................... 8 3. Experiment Conditions .......................................................... 9 #D(PW 'b Approved For Release 2MR/T . - P96-00789ROO31 0011 0001@ egplo orl:%erlge 01 03 96-00,789 ,A er @07 ' CWRRPAn@ma 0 Oco eisec&O n,caypd tF end ro an epehdencies us DRAFT I. There are two objectives of this pilot study: (1) Explore the effects of target properties on AC quality. (2) Determine the degree to which anomalous cognition (AQ quality Definitions of terms can be found in Section V (i.e., Glossary) on page 14. )3 00110001-5 n It'i 6 n BJECTIVE upon a sender! Approved For Release 200IM21117- ' Cl A-VEP6-00789R?031 00110001 UNEUITED M Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Technical Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT 11. INTRODUCTION The field of parapsychology has been interested in improving the quality of responses to target material since the 1930's when J. B. Rhine first began systematic laboratory studies of extra sensory perception. Since that time, much of the field's effort has been oriented toward psychological factors that may influ- ence anomalous cognition (AQ. In this section, we review the pertinent literature that describes at- tempts to improve the quality of AC by categorizing target content. At a recent conference, Delanoy reported on a survey of the literature for successful AC experiments, and, she categorized the target material according to perceptual, psychological and physical character- istics.l* Except for trends related to dynamic, multi-sensory targets, she was unable to observe system- atic correlations of AC quality with her target categories. Watt examined the AC-target question from a theoretical perspective.2 She concluded that the "best" AC targets are those that are meaningful, have emotional impact, and contain human interest; those targets that have physical features that stand out from their backgrounds or contain movement, novelty, and incongruity are also good targets. The difficulty with either the survey of the experimental literature or the psychologically oriented theoretical approach is that understanding the sources of the variation in AC quality is problematical. Using a vision analogy, sources of visual material are easily understood (i.e., photons); yet, the percept of vision is riot well understood. Psychological and possibly physiological factors influence what we 49 see." In AC research, the same difficulty arises. Until we understand the influence of these factors on the AC percept, results of systematic studies of AC are difficult to interpret. Yet, in a few cases, some progress has been realized. In 1990, Honorton et al. conducted a careful meta- analysis of the experimental Ganzfeld literature.3 In Gansfeld experiments, receivers are placed in a state of mild sensory isolation and asked to describe their mental imagery. After each trial, the analysis was performed by the receiver, who was asked to rank order four pre-defined targets, which include the actual target and three decoys; the chance first-place rank hitting rate was 0.25. In 355 trails collected from 241 different receivers, Honorton et al. found a hitting rate of 0.31 (z = 3.89, p < 5 x 10 -5) for an effect size of 0.20. In addition, he found that AC quality was significantly enhanced when the targets were video clips from popular movies (i.e., dynamic) as opposed to static photographs (i.e., effect sizes of 0.32 and 0.05, respectively). All trials were conduced with a sender. In a carefully conducted meta-analysis, Honorton and Ferrari report significant hitting in forced- choice, precognition experiments.4t They analyzed 53 years of experiments conducted by 62 different investigators using a limited set of symbols (i.e., called Zener cards) as target material. Fifty thousand * References may be found at the end of the document. t Forced-choice means targets are randomly chosen from a known and limited set of possibilities (e.g., red or black playing cards). Precognition means that the target is generated randontly after the guess has been registered. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 UNEDITED DRAFT 2 ADDroved For-ReleasOO - CIA-R endl/Q3/07 Tectinlcal Protocol: iarget an er Dependencies ii DRAFT subjects contributed a total of approximately X 106 individual trials. The ovei corresponding to a p-value of 6.3 X 10-25. Similarly, in an earlier review arti 7.5 x 105 forced-choice Zener card trials that were collected from 1934 to 1939 overall effect size of 0.016+0.001.' Puthoff and Targ publish the results of 39 AC real-time trials where the targets the San Francisco Bay area.6 The effect size for the 39 trials was 1.15. Table 1 summarizes these results for each target type: Table 1. Effect Size as a FUnction of Target Type 110001-5 effect size was 0.020 Honorton analyzed 1 found a significant natural scenes in Tirget T@pe Trials Effect Size Symbols (Real-Time)7.5 x 105 0.016 @z 1 0.00 Symbols (Precognitive)2.0 X t06 0.020 0.00, 1 Static Photographs165 0.05 0.08 Dynamic Photographs190 0.32 0.07 Static Natural 39 1.15 0.16 Scenes The effect sizes shown in Thble 1 are qualitatively monotonically related to target "complexity;" yet an , pe is currently unknown. 'Yet, t - t "complexity" was appropriate quantitative description for target tv qrge one of the experimentally observed and theoretically conceived target concepts nd by Delanoy and Watt, respectively. @ou A number of confounds exist, however, in this database for the effect-size measu s. For example, in all but the Puthoff and Targ study (i.e., targets were natural scenes), the receivers were unselected. That is, they did not participate in the various experiments on the basis of their known ability as receivers. So, is the large effect size for the Puthoff and Targ study because of the accomplished receivers, the natural- scene targets, or some combination of both? While there are a number of other exceptions, the prepon- derance of the data were from unselected individuals. In many of the trials, a sender was concentrating on the target material, and as in most perception experiments, psychological factbrs and boredom con- tribute to the variance in the effect sizes. In this pilot experiment, we will apply one physical measure to static and dynamic photographs to quan- tify the relationship between target type and AC quality. By careful selection of 'arget content, we will minimize the psychological factors in perception. In addition, we will minimize @ individual differences by conducting many trials with each receiver and by only choosing receivers who have previously dem- onstrated excellent AC skill. Because the previous database included trials with and without senders, we will xplore the effects of a sender on AC quality, as well. I Approved For Release 2%1=117- - MA--nlf96-00789R?031 00110001 LUITED-DR Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Technical Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT Ill. APPROACH 1. Target-pool Selection The static target material for thispilot studywi]] be an existing set of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs. This set has been divided into 20 sets of five photographs that were determined to be visually dissimilar by a fuzzy set analysis.7 The dynamic target material will be approximately 50, 60 to 90 second clips from popular video movies. These clips will be selected because they: ~ are thematically coherent, ~ contain obvious geometric elements (e.g., wings of air craft), and ~ are emotionally neutral. The intent of these selection criteria is to control for cognitive surprise, to provide target elements that are easily sketched, and to control for psychological factors such as perceptual defensiveness. The video segments will be drawn from a variety of themes including adventure, documentary, and fantasy. 2. Target Preparation The target variable that we will consider in this experiment is the total change of entropy per unit area, per unit time. We have chosen this quantity because it is qualitatively related to the "complexity" of target type shown in 1hble 1, and because it represents a potential physical variable that is important in the detection of traditional sensory stimuli. In the case of image data, the entropy is defined as: Nk -1 SA; 7, pjklogz(pjk), j-0 where pjk is the probability of finding image intensityj of color k. In a standard, digitized, true color image, each pixel (i.e., picture element) contains eight binary bits of red, green, and blue intensity, re- spectively. That is, Nk is 256 (i.e., 28) for each k, k r, g, b. The total change of the entropy in differential form is given by: 'dt dSk @ VSk dr + @S_ at We must specify the spatial and temporal resolution before we can compute the total change of entropy for a real image. Henceforth, we drop the color index, k, and assume that all quantities are computed for each color and summed. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 UNEDITED DRAFT 4 )ppp&_ggZ§Nnn§jpo11ooo1_5 TeA M a9,b?Oq & R, r F apjeqa g&j DRAFT 2.1 Static Photographs Each target from the pool of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs will bekanned at 100 dots per inch (dpi) for eight bits of information of red, green. and blue intensity. At 0.25 inch spatial resolution, for example, this scanning density provides 625 pixels for each 0.25 x 0.25 in2 patch tc compute thej@. For a specified resolution, the target photograph is divided into an integral number of macro-pixels ex- cluding a thin border, if necessary. The entropy for the (ij) macro-pixel is computed as: Sij pi log,(Pj j=0 wherepy is computed empirically from the pixels in the (i, j) macro-pixel only. Fo example, consider the target photograph shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. City with a Mosque Figure 2 shows the probability density for green macro-pixel (3,3), which is sho%A,n as a white square in the upper left hand corner of Figure L* The probability density and the photograph indicates that most of the intensity in this patch is near zero value (i.e., no intensity of green in this se). In a similar fash- ion, Sij are calculated for the entire scene. For the photograph show i ranges from zero to 43, andj ranges from zero to 32 for a total of 1,452 macro-pixels. n in Figure C@' The original photograph was 8.5 x I I inches, and we have standardized on 0.25 inch resolution. ] Approved For Release %UW1117- -'CIA--W@?6-00789R@031 00110001 EDITED-13H Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Technical Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT 0.4 0.2- 0.0 --- --- - 0 20 40 60 80 100 Intensity 0) 1 Figure 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Tbxget (Macro-pixel 3,3). We will use a standard algorithm to compute the 2-dimensional spatial gradient of these 1,452 values of the entropy. Figure 3 shows contours of constant change of entropy (calculated from Equation 1) for 2 the city target. The total change per unit area is 1.98 bits/0.25 in . In this formalism, entropy is in units of bits and the maximum entropy is 24 bits. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 - UNEDITED DRAFT 6 Figure 3. City with Mosque (I AS I = 1.98 bits/0.25 in2). T. pg,8ye F r elpaS 1/ J&P ApnRAMMAIRIN00110001-5 rg ncFS'eo 8 @49 7d' n go b es 1hQ rop Oco? TF DRAFT The city target was chosen as an example because it was known (qualitatively) o be a "good" static photograph for AC trials in earlier research. Figure 4 shows contours of constant hange of entropy for a photograph that was known not to be a "good" AC target. Figure 4. Pacific Islands (I AS I = 1.35 bits/0.25 in2). For comparison, we show in, Figure 5, the traditional Zener card set, which forced-choice experiments shown in Table I and described above. Figure 5. Zener Thrget Cards (Average I AS 0.15 bits/0.25 used in most of the Approved For Release 2QOg8jf,7 - 96-00789R?0310011000175 TJN D Uproved For Release-209elfg=7 - CIA&DAP96-1 3100110001-5 c n n 9,07Pffl09 Tech al Protocol: Target and ben r ependencies orna ous ogn, ion DRAFT In Table 2, we modifyMble I to show the values of AS (O.Z in)-2 for two of four target types. Thble 2. Potential Correlation of AS with Effect Size Target 1@pe AS (0.25 in) - 2 Symbols 0.15 Static Photographs1.35 Dynamic Photographs? Static Natural ? Scenes We illustrate in this table the intent of this pilot study. We will compute AS for all the static and dynamic targets and, using accomplished receivers, measure their associated AC effect sizes. 2.2 Dynarnic Photographs The total change of entropy for the dynamic targets will be calculated in much the same way. The video target will be digitized at approximately one frame per second. 'Me spatial term of Equation 1 will be computed exactly as it was for the static targets. The second term, however, will be computed from dif- ferences between adjacent frames. Or, @L @ Sjj(t + A I) - Sjj(t) (2) at At At where At is the one over the digitizing frame rate. We can see immediately that the dynamic targets will have a larger AS than do the static ones becuase Equation 2 is identically zero for all static targets. 2.3 Cluster Analysis As a result of the above calculations, the static and dynamic target sets will have associated sets of AS. Using standard cluster analysis, each set will be grouped into relatively orthoginal clusters of relatively constantJS. Inspection and fuzzy set analysis will be used to construct packets of five visually dissimilar targets from within each cluster. Since we do not yet know how to assign entropy to an AC response, the AC analysis must be performed on the basis of visual discrimination. 3. Target Selection For a specified target type (e.g., static photographs), a target pack will be selected randomly and one target of the five within the that pack will also be chosen randomly. 4. Receiver Selection Six experienced receivers, who have produced significant AC effect sizes in previous investigations, will contribute 40 AC trials each. Each receiver will contribute ten trials in each of the conditions shown in Tkble 3. Approved For Release 20D L01 - %W96-00789R00310011000185 UNOTED D Te&MPN?Xr%YbEd9!A$hq§§8 MYORW 669AAMMM DRAFT Table 3 Experiment Conditions ConditionTarget Sender Type 1 Static Yes 2 Static No 3 Dynamic Ye 4 Dvnamic No 5. Sender Selection The sender for all trials will be the principal investigator (PI). 6. Session Protocol Before the pilot experiment begins, the experiment coordinator will generate, r anced set of 20 dynamic and 20 static targets and, within each target type, gene@ balanced set of sender/no sender conditions. Each of the six receivers will have of targets/conditions. For each receiver, the experiment coordinator wi-11 prep containing the target number and condition for each trial. For the no-sender co ber will be sealed in a smaller internal envelope so that the PI will remain blind in the sender condition, the target number is visible in tile outer envelope. Thei about the dates and times of day when their individual targets are available. For each trial and for each receiver, the PI will perform the following tasks: ~Determine from the above list, the target and sender condition. ~In the sender condition, study the selected target and attempt to "transmif' it to In the no-sender condition, do nothing ~At the conclusion of the 15 minute trial period and after the receipt of the reci simile, send a copy of the target material (i.e., either a photograph or video t over night mail. During each trial, the receiver will perform the following tasks: ~ At a prearranged time, the receiver wfll find a quiet and lighted room in his or her ~ For a period lasting no longer than 15 minutes, the receiver will write and draw of the intended target material, which will be located in Lititz, PA. ~ At the end of the AC trial, the subject wi.11 send the response by facsimfle to the pri ~ By overnight mail, the subject will receive a copy of the actual target as feedb,- We will not provide specific instructions beyond logistical information to the all experienced in this type of task. 110001-5 domly, a counter bal- e randomly a counter eir own individual set -, 40 sealed envelopes ition, the target num- the target choice, but @eivers will be notified intended receiver. .r's response by fac to the receiver by and sit at a desk. or her impressions )a] investigator (PI). for the trial. because they are For each receiver, the 40 trials will occur at a rate of three per week (i.e., one evetY other day) during a five-month period beginning in January 1992. There will be significant breaks Ouring this period for Approved For Release jqfttffiaffi@ - %-RM096-00789R?031 00110001 ia5 N EUfT D rT Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Technical Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT holidays and to allow the receiver to participate in other experiments. The PI will maintain frequent phone contact with them during the experiment. At the end of the study, the PI will remove the receiver's name, date, and time from each response; ran- domize the order within a receiver set; and provide an analyst with a set of responses and associated target packs. The indented target within each pack will not be disclosed. 7. Analysis For each trial, there is a single response and its associated target pack (i.e., either static or dynamic). During the first part of the analysis, a judge, who is blind to the condition and target for the trial, will be asked to rank-order the targets within the given pack. This is a forced rank, so regardless of the quality of match between the response and targets within the pack, the judge must assign a first place match to the response, a second place match to the response, and so on for each of the five targets. The output from this part of the analysis is a rank-order number (i.e., one to five, one corresponding to a first place match) for the correct target. For each receiver, target type, and condition there are 10 such rank-order numbers that constitute a block of data. A rank-order effect size will be computed for a block as: 17ii - 170 A @_ I 12 @ (3) where Aj is the average rank for target type i and sender condition j, and 770 is the expected average rank, which for this study is equal to three for all cases. In Equation 3, N is the number of possible ranks and is equal to five throughout this study. Thus, Equation 3 reduces to: Ki j - 3 r2 During the second part of the analysis, a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) will be computed for each receiver. The main effects are target type and sender condition. In this part of the analysis, we do not plan to combine data across receivers. In the third part of the analysis we will construct a scatter diagram of rank-order number versus AS. Using a logistic transformation on the rank-order numbers, we will compute a linear correlation coeffi- cient to determine the degree to which AC quality linearly depends uponJS. By inspection of the scat- ter diagram, we will determine if higher-order correlations should be calculated. 8. Hypotheses 8.1 Null Hypothesis The overall null hypothesis is that Eij will not be significantly different from zero. Even with only 10 trials in each condition and given that the historical effect size of many of the receivers is approximately 0.8, there is an 80% chance of observing a significant effect size for a given block of data. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 UNEDITED DRAFT 10 TeAR12EWt%~bfo9-.rTBOLq~P#s%99JINR~~egJ&- Win2W9.,J8fflqQ;j001 10001 -5 DRAFT 8.2 Sender and Target Condition Using an F-testwe will test the hypothesis that the qualitvof AC does nott ddependd pon a sender regard- less of target type. Similarly, we will use an F- test to test the hypothesis that the ualityof AC does not depend upon target type regardless of the sender condition. The interaction terms in the ANOVA will test the hypothesis that a sender might irnprove AC quality for only a specific target type. 8.3 Target Entropy The AC quality of each trial is assessed within a given target type and as closely as possible with similar AS. Thus, a significant correlation between target JS and AC quality will be a -valid indication of the primary hypothesis that they are linearly related. Approved For Release 2fflg8@&76 @)A-R-DP96-00789R?031 001100040 UN AFT Appr,oved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Technica Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT IV. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS In this pilot investigation we will study the degree to which the change of target entropy affects the qual- ity of anomalous cognition, and we will explore the relationship of a sender to the AC process. There are a number of potential outcomes to this investigation and a number of post hoc analyses that could yield productive insight. We discuss these outcomes and analyses below. 1. Null Result At the 95% confidence level, no statistically significant deviations are observed for any of the block ef- fect sizes, eij. If a X2 test for homogeneity of effect sizes across receivers demonstrates that the data are homogeneous (i.e., p(X2) > 0.05), then we conclude that the experiment failed to demonstrate signifi- cant AC functioning. In this case we will recommend that a replication be conducted with more trials, because there is a 20% chance the the data produced by a single receiver would not reach statistical significance even if an alternate hypotheses was true. That is, the Type II error is 20%. If, however, the effect sizes across receivers is not homogeneous (i.e., p(X2) :5 0.05), then the data for each receiver will be examined individually. Depending upon available resources and the advice of the SOC, the receivers who may have demonstrated individually significant results might be asked to con- tribute additional data. 2. Significant Deviations The are a number of different ways, in accordance with the analysis described above, that significant deviations could be observed. 2.1 Dependency on Target Type Suppose that the ANOVA demonstrates significant effects for the target type regardless of the sender condition. Suppose further that we observe a significant correlation between AS and AC quality. Inthis case, we would consider that the primary hypothesis (i.e., the change of target entropy is sensed by AQ has been confirmed. We would recommend that we extend the study to include natural scenes as target material. To do this properly, however, we must estimate the potential change of thermodynamic entro- py for real locations. 2.2 Dependency on Sender If the ANOVA demonstrates significant effects in support of a sender regardless of target type and there is no significant interaction terms between target type and sender condition, we would conclude that a sender can significantly improve the quality of AC. Furthermore, we would conclude, as Delanoy before us, that we still do not understand what constitutes an AC target. Approved For Release 200g8ffig - &-RDP96-00789RO0310011000125 UN 1) AFT TeARi~EPiyr%gfo?-rTF?84?§VcPS399e'/B~~gTct'ePJ&- WinRA- QAA00110001-5 DRAFT We would recommend, therefore, that a post hoc analysis be conducted to search @br target systematics in the existing database. If any were found, we would formulate hypotheses to be @ested in later studies. 2.3 Other Post Hoc Analyses Depending upon time and resources, we will re-analyze the AC data. Decoy targets for the blind rank- ing would be selected not on the basis of constant AS, but rather on a visual basis alone; this is the tradi- tional method usually employed in AC studies. Depending upon the content of t le targets, there might be other dimensions that could be used to construct decoy targets (e.g., function, physical proximity of target elements). There has been some indication in the literature that AC quality depends weakly pon the noise in the geomagnetic field. Since we routinely record the time, date, and location of eact trial, we will add the results from this experiment to that analysis. Approved For Release Iftft r'096-00789R?0310011000135 UrqWTib1BWX1rT pproved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 T41nnical Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT V. GLOSSARY Not all the terms defined below are germane to the MEG study, but they are included here for com- pleteness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define: ~ Anomalous Coynition-A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are ab- sent. That is, some individuals are able to gain access, by as yet an unknown process, to information that is not available to the known sensorial channels. ~ Receiver--An individual who attempts to perceive and report information about a target. ~ AgfjA-An individual who attempts to influence a target system. ~ Dr et-An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event). ~ Thrget D kgaajj!2n-A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates). ~ Sender/Beacoji-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended target, acts as a putative transmitter to the receiver. ~ YDni=-An individual who monitors an AC session to facilitate data collection. ~ Slaaim-A time period during which AC data is collected. ~ ProtQcQ-I--A template for conducting a structured data collection session. ~ Response -Material that is produced during an AC session in response to the intended target. ~ Feedback-A era response has been secured, information about the intended target is displayed to the receiver. ~ Analyst-An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. ~ Specialit -A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of targets (e.g., people as opposed to buildings). Approved For Release 200k8ffig - @A-RDP96-00789ROO310011000145 UN D AFT Wa?yp0q0t0qr4aWMgq MjfqA(Wn' e A C T DRAFT 110001-5 REFERENCES 1 .D. L. Delanoy, "Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Expe imental Findings and Observations," Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsycholo ical Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 230-246, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 2. C. Watt, "Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Theoretical Considerations," Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 247-263, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 1 3. C. Honorton, R. E. Berger, M. P. Varvoglis, M. Quant, P. Derr, E. . Sc ec @ter, and D. C. Ferrari, "PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, po. 99-139 (June 1990). 4. C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, "'Future Telling:' A Meta-analysis of Forc,d-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, pp. 282-308 (December 1989). 5. C. Honorton, "Error Some Place! " Journal of Communication, pp. 103-116, (Winter, 1975). 6. H. E. Puthoff and R. Targ, "A Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer over Mometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research," Proceedings of th IEEE,, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 329-354, (March, 1976). 1 7. E. C. May, J. M. Utts, B. S. Humphrey, W, L. W Luke, T J. Frivold, and V Y. Tkask, "Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis," Joumal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 194-228,1 (September, 1990). Approved For Release MQUQ2 --rJLA- 6-00789R@031 0011 0001.t§ UTqEUR:iU17RW A roved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Pepchnical Protocol: Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition DRAFT APPENDIX This appendix contains the full reprints of the following seven papers: (1) Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Experimental Findings and Observations (2) Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Theoretical Considerations (3) PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld (4) "Future Telling:" A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 (5) Error Some Place! (6) A Perceptual Channel for Information T@ansfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research (7) Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis Approved For Release 200@10JS,71 -EMX?f-00789R003100110001_5 16 N T Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789R 03100110001-5 )ougal, S.M. (1986) Subliminal and psi perception: a review of the liter ure. of the Society for Psychical Research, 53, 405-434. Iler, G. (1972) Respice, Adspice, Prospice. in W.G. Roll, R.L Morris .1 J.D. (Eds) proceedings of the Parapsychological Association (197, 8, ,chological Association, Durham, North Carolina. ?n, S.A. (1979a) Analysis of spontaneous cases. Research Letter 9, ,chology Laboratory, University of Utrecht, 55-62. 1 )n, S.A. (19796) Analysis of spontaneous cases as reported in 'Phantas s of ig'. European Journal of Parapsychology, 2, 408-455. 3n, S.A. (1982) Analysing spontaneous cases: a replication based n the .,ollection. European Journal of Parapsychology, 4, 113-158. 13n, S.A. (1986) A different approach for studying psi. In B. Shapin & 14 coly lurrent Trends in Psi Research (1984), Parapsychology Foundation, New York. in, H. (1960) Know Your Own Mind, Anthony, New York. N, N., Braud, L. & Barker, P. (1981) Target qualities and affect measure-@ in an itory psi ganzfeld. Proceedings, 24th Annual Convention o@ the ;ychological Association. id, E. & Canon, L.K. (1972) Social Psychology., A Cognitive Approach. W.B. ars, Philadelphia. -0 987) 1986 Esalen Conference. Parapsychology Review, Is, 6-8. 1 .O.T. (1982) Physiological correlates of psi reception: some methodological lerations. In Proceedings, PA & SPR Combined Jubilee and Ce tenary rence. C.T. (1987) cited in Targ, R. 1986 Esalen Conference. w, 18, 6-8. 1, S.E. & Fiske, S.T. (1978) Salience, attention, and attribution: top of t 9 head )mena. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 11, 249-21 n, M. & Krippner, S. (1973) Dream Telepathy. Penguin, Baltimore. ns, L.B. & Duke, M. (1979) Oualitles of free-response targets arild their inship to psi performance. Proceedings, 22nd Annual Convention of the eychological Association Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CWRDP96-00789R@03100110001.5 263 j Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 CIMACTER=CS CP SUI=SFUL FFEE-RESPONSE MMMM: EX=bMMVAL F7MMGS RM MTICNS Deborah L. Delanoy Psychology Department University of Edinburgh 7 George Square Edinburgh 318 9jZ Scatlandr U.K. Abstract This paper review 1 findings and observations concerning characteristics Of successful free-respcnse targets. on relevant to the follading categories of target characteristics was examined: colour/black and white; ccmplex/isimole; novel/famiLiar; abstract/ ==ete; dynamic/static; form/idea and meaning; emotion; and theme/ 0MI 0 Very few conclusions could be drawn from the data base,, although a tentative finding related dynamic, multi-senscry targets to Esp mxxmqa- Other suggestive findings were reported for mvel and abstract characteristi . The discussim considers possible reasons for the general lack of findings and presents a possible avenue for future research. ACM40WLEEGEMENTS: M. Camline Watt and Professor Janes Crandall contributed lly to the research for this paper, for which I am most grateful. my thanks also to Dr. Julie Milton and ms. watt for helpful comments on the 's content and again to Ms. Mtt for the typing of the references. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 i.I;IA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-00789R903100110001-5 This and the following presented by caroline p represents the findings of a 1' t u review examining what ir, @ r e successful (in terms of being a t e 1 ly -perceived by -the perc y and/or unsuccessful free--respcnse t. The review was unde t to assist the Koestler Lab in cons a a free--respmse target po use in our future research. We thoughtsuch a review was necess t targets we should be loaki- f initial discussions as to what type f e revealed that various researchers in r in our group held dif: res opinions/ideas as to what qualities es su successful target should These differences were further when we started disc. various targets which we had used in ow in own research those of other researchers with whose 0 ts e ts s pools we were familia: i.h;. .. _ ma in initial search through some of the rrajor parapsycholo;ry journa. source books revealed very little coherently arranged infc= regarding free-response targets. viLv was undertaker, in This r_- an a, to remedy this situation. Th t ufs end, we emmdned re": parapsychological and psychological wimental findings and exp theorc modelsr post hoc observations, and lore in hopes of di.swrerinc lab consensus regarding psi-conducive qualities and materials. targe: first paper will present the findingsom parapsychological experir ft findingst including post hoc findingsanecdotal observations. It should be stressed that review is not meant t eidoustive. -We have tried to scout related information in out thE Journals and newsletters (journal American Society for Psyc of Rese47chp Journal of Parapsychology,1 and Proceedings of Society for Psychical Research, Journal of Parapsychc International journal of ParapsycholParapsychology Review, Research letter). We have also various mrnf?xence PrOME (Parapsychological Association and logy Rnuidation) j Parapsychological source books, scammethe popular literature o rega the development of psychic abilitiesrof t:he related pwl&. literature, and Other Prominent bookin our field which we th likely to contain tM information seeking. However, it we Obviously impossible to examine all the possibly related litera o Our survey of the historical literaturewas necessarily quilte limite fact we exwdned only two main sourc es,, - warcollier s writings Phantasm of the Liy"j 1886). Target-related information from forced choice studies has not systematically considered here, the rea on for this (inission pr the two reviews of this literature Conducted by Palmer (1978 alr- Carpenter (1977). However, 1 findings from these scm occasionally will be referred to iate in this review. where r exe a . The most frequent comments gets found in I reg 9 sources were generalizations regardingm choice of target material. t example ccoments might be made that :s were chosen which were targe vit colouredr intrinsically interesting,pleasant, and so On. Mile amMents my be viewed as conveying I - - - ` perspective the e of CMIstItutes an easy-to-perceive target,to list all such cxaments v have been a very tedious task for the author and her audiE both Furthermoref no comment could be 3 upon the utility of mad wiiat parameters were adopted when choosing;ets unless one mere to atter meta-analysis of the relevant studies,project which was far a beyond scope of the present undertaking. such comments were not Thus, incl in this review unless information ovided which related partic was pr target characteristics to the successfailure of the study, or and/ox Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-007q@F903100110001-5 hosen to be unusual in sare respect, fcLAAQPWQM&R003100110001-5 The initial task in this undertaking rec@ finding ScIre Way to organize the target information in a meaningful and useful manner. This proved to be quite problematic, as target materials and content are seldom one-dimensional. Thus it was required to find a means of categorizing a diverse range of target materialsf such as film clips, actual geographical sites, agents' experience of scme sensory stimulus, and a large range of assorted pictorial material, each representing varying degrees of denotative and ccrmotative omplexity. Indeed, even defining the target in mwW studies was not a straight-forward proposition. For example, in telepathic designs, is the target the agent-S experience of the target material or the target material itself? In approaching this task it was thought that the target information could perhaps be divided according to the type of target material used (e.g. art prints, film clips, geographical locations, etc.). However, this approach was rejected as in many cases there was not enough available information about a specific target material to allow sensible generalizaticns to be made. Also explored were various ways of trying to represent and categorize the obtained target information in a multi-dirrensional manneri taking into account both denotative and connotative nmning. To this endr attempts were made to apply to the data various three-dimensional canceptualizations of the sort obtained from the semantic differential. Thust we sought to find cne scale which would categorize the obtained target nformatian taking into consideration various connotative caq=ents such s evaluation (does the information convey something which is good-bad, clean-dirty, sacred- profane, etc.), potency (weak-strang, powerless-powerful, light-heavy, etc.), and acUvity (fast-slowr active-passiver sharp-dull,, etc.). ibis approach of organizing the data was rejected as there was not enough information about most targets to justify a post hoc fitting of the obtained nformation into such a model. Thus, in the end the task was necessarily defined by the type of information obtained in the literature search. Iodcing through the data obtained, it was decided that the information could best be organized according to the following target characteristics: colour / black and white; camplex / simple; novel / familiar; abstract / concrete; dynamic / static; fom / idea and meaning; emotion; and theme / content. The "working definiticnsff of these categories will be delineated in the following ppropriate sections of this paper. 7here were many instances where the same data fitted into several different categorizations. Ebr instance, in Krippner, Ullman, et al. (1972) the target consisted of a randomly chosen word, an art print which portrayed the word,, and then a multi-sensory (auditory,, gustatoryp olfactory, tactile and kinesthetic) environment relating to the word/picture was created for the agent. Such a target could easily be classified as complex, novel, dynamic, emotional, and as having a strong theme. In such situaticnsg, the author has attempted to refer to the information in all the relevant categories, but has only provided details of the study in the category where it was first mentioned. 13olour / Black and White The colour cat-agory referred to all target materials which were coloured, as opposed to black and white. A telepathic dream study by KWippier and Zeichner (1974) obtained a significant degree (p < .002) of psi-hitting using 74 art prints as the targets. A descriptive analysis of 232 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 9 h n3 Approved For ReWsaL-200V03107 : Q#-RqfL9n6.007 100110001-5 R iidihg@ a -19C ation of C er d p n a ap Heilbrun's Adjective Check List. judges evaluated each I ol prints using this list. If two judg s checked the same adjectivF picture, that adjective was deemed t o describe the particulat This analysis revealed that a er percentage of hit gh associated with targets which had blu in them,, whexe targets cc more misses (whether resL W1 orange and yellow were associated significant is not reported). Pu f and Targ (1979),, in tho an a ccalleml 1L. upon their zarko e viewing sn irbes stated that: most h associated with various nonanalytic as, p ercts of a target, such as Howeverf in another rato e viewing st 3 dy (Targ,, Targ, and Lichtarg where colcur was ed aver b lack and wtdte slides of le unable to perceive! the ' col, it was found that the viewers were CaMenting upon these results the s speculated that the a @ ? colour perception may have been due to the restricted nmber o- choices which resulted in making the colcur perception a more e i task than'the free-response Perception Of Possible target site.- of Waroollier's (1938) wcrk used simp e black and white line c as targets. Howevero, he observed inf lly that when colour was targeto, it appeared to be perceived a frequently as was the forr drawing. A nm--psi study by Br,aud,, Da st and CPella (1985) exand frequency of occurrence of different s of imagery in drean ganzfeld states. As this study no targets, the result indicate what types of imagery have a priori probability of mentioned more often than others. relation to this category found that dreaming and ganzfeld ima contain a prediaminance of (affmig other things). These results ld be pertinent to the f discussed in this paper,, in that scmme f these findings could be d simple predminance of certain nnat lly-occurring types of ima, qPPosed to reflecting actual transraissi n of target-related ccntent Possible that the higher frequency of lour Imagery in general com to spurious observations of success wi colour targets unless f( exaMined. This should be borne in mind when considering arx Observations. Many studies have been conducted u ing black and white targets, notably those experiments where the target cansisted of simplE drawings - However, we found no fr esponse work wbich caq= effectiveness of black and white colaared targets. MdftY PI-dne (1947) canducted a forced-choice s using both coloured and and White Zener cards. They found a higher average socre wit Coloured cards than with the black and ite, but the difference w significant. The findings fran this category do not indicate any cle, differences between the success-rate of colour and black and wbite materials. As both have a long track-r of obtaining significm outcames , research specifically I at cimparing the two free-response setting would be needed ore any ccnclusions regardir superiority of me over the other could made. Omplex / Simple Information included in the "ccmpl " category referred to ccir ca and findings about target mater3i7alsr nwt cammnly picb=ial, were ccmplex and/or rich in content. Kri and Zeichner (1974) fc jth@e higher percentage of misses with e CM1PleX targets (whethe finding was significant was not repo Stuart (1946b) stated Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-0078&A 03100110001-5 ,I:eaqW 260 ' 1 l970?*!ge8Cl%iq*ele4W (1970 expressed cmumm thfaTM2Cex'ft4VWt=I"W-C subjects but the judges,? as complex targets could make the evaluation procedure overly problematic, with the creative judge finding numerous Correspondences between marry dream sequences and complex, detailed pictures. ()n the other hue? significant results have been obtained with very complex target material such as film clips (Psychcphysical Research Iaboratcxyl 1985) and the multi-sensOrY target of Krippnerr Tillman, et. al. (1972) described in the introduction. ,iformation, classified as Isinplew included refermums to targets composed of clear, unequivocally definabler common objects and symbols. most frequently these targets were simple line drawings. Both Caringtorl. (1940) and Stuart (1946a) recommended the use of simpler as opposed to compoundr drawings so as not to confuse the subject. Warcollier (1963) noted that. even though his targets were simpler pe=ipients " responses still shawed considerable distortion. As abOver KriPPmr and Zeidmer (1974) fotind a higher percentage of hits associated with more simple targets as measured by the number of adjectives used to describe the target (again,, whether this finding was significant is not reported) ,evex-al forced choice studies have emmined the use of multiple-aspect targets. Generally these targets would be considered to be 'simple' by free-response standards. However, being nulti-asPect by definiticn,, they would represent more complex material than many forced-choice targets. Palmer (1978) in reviewing this work concluded that when multiple-aspect targets were used subjects tended "to score at least as high or higher on the total target than on any of its primary attributes. Such results suggest either that such targets are perceived holistically (even if the overt responses are F - __,mentary) or that a correct guess on one attribute somehow facilitates co=ect guesses on other attributes."(Palmer,, 1978,, p.88) In a review of six studies utilizing dual-aspect targetst Kennedy (1980) examined whether complex target infonmtion was treated as a gestalt or whether the individual parts of the information appeared to be processed separately. No support; for or against eithw mode of information processing was obtained. The above findings do not merit any clear conclusions. Before such conclusions could be drawn direct carparison within studies of complex target material is needed* Novel / Rimiliar relating to ur&xpectedr unfamiliarr unusual arid/or incongruous target material was included in the novel category. Cavanna. and Servadio (1964) conducted a pilot study to investigate suitable methodologies for studying the occurrence of Esp during states induced by taking- hallucinogenic drugs. Their targets were phoitographn consisting of very inccrigruous elements, for example an upside-down footr balancing an artificial eye between the toes. The results were ncrr-significant,, although this outcome could have been due to the difficulties involved in attaiding to a test situation when under the influence Of an hallucinogenic drug. Krippner and Zeichner (1974) obtained a higher percentage (whether or not significant was not reported) of hits when -targets were described as imaginative and interesting (qualities which could be "n, gtrued as novel) - ullman and Krippner (1973) ran a four subject dream study in which the same target was used for half of the testing nights and a different target used for each REM period for the other half . They observed that the the four participants preferred the Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : C3A-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 -5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789R03100110001-5 use of different targets for every drem against a single tE The authors thought this indicative of th e dreamers " attention beinc engaged by novel ESP stimli. In anothm- of the drew studies U subjectse eight nights ESP, eight of cmrtrole, no significant scc Ullman and Krippner (1973) commented th at the subjects felt the target material should be as unusual as p ossible. Roll and Harary , found that winteresting responses" (hits ) were obtained whea spontar unexpected changes were made in the -riment. e*jo examples provided of t1us involved last minute changes being made to the t material. Several forced-,choice studies have Idered the effect of nc of task and/or target material upon ESP, PBX ice. In Mviewing studies Carpenter (1977) concluded that novelty could facil. pisi!-hitting for most subjectsf but cou ld-be countern=do--tive fox subjects used to a specific routine. classified as NfamiljzL; * included references to tz which held varying degrees of recogn.1 -for the percipients. studies have been conducted us .I of emotional significance =g t d have been also rAxr-w sub subject and with which the ject familiar. However, as ena 1signif ce was usually deemed thE i:mportant aspect of such targets, these studies will be considered that section. Irwin (1982) conducted a study em mining the influence of sub- familiarity with the targets. Half o f the targets (Maimmides s! were exposed to the subjects prior to @ est@ingor and half were not. manipulation had no signifi t ze= upon the study-,* '17 s out him to anecdotally conclude Warcollier-'Os (1938) research lea;d that t elements of a target familiar to both e subject and agent. I COL and May (1979) have cannent f successfully transmitted. Targ,, Puthof the basis of informal observations their am researda that u either repetitive target sequences and/or use of target PM113 of whii: subject had prior knowledge would inhibit. remote viewing success. The few findings reported in thi s category do not sql=t drawing of any firm conclusions. There i s awe anecdotal support fic utility of using a different targetv '@I ith which the subject iE familiar, for each testing of that subject. Also, the Krippm Zeichner (1974) findings offer some supp@ t for the use of imaginati,. interesting targets. Abstract / Concrete Abstract information included references to targets which port a potentially realistic scene or object in either an abs;txact. a y recogni unrealistic manner (to varying degrees) or in a not readili fashion. Krippner and Zeichner (1974) found a greater percmtag misses with targets which were as unreallstic (wh this finding was significant was riot Ullman and Kri th (1973) in the series of dream studies 'Erwin", reported that 1: gure abstract pictures which lacked human s gave poorer results targets which cmtained human figures in activity. Information included in the e category would be refer to target material which presented an object or scene in an immedi recognizable,, undistorted manner. MWe a great number oil studies used targets which could be characterl9ted as being ccincrete, we fatz specific reference regarding the utility of this characteristic in free-xespozise studies. Although Krippner and 7Adcbner's , (1974) finding aid Ullma. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789RP03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Kripp-mer's (1973) observation suggest that abstract targets maY not be c=zIucive to psi-hitting, more research is needed before firm canclusions can be drawn. D .yBLnLic / Static The dynamic categorization was used to refer to about targets which portrayed and/or conveyed movement,, a sense of movementr and/or gustatorYr olfactcrYr auditOrYp tactile, and/or kinesthetic Ertimulation. 72ms a wide diversity of target materials fell into this category including pictorial material (showing movement), film clips (C=*zining movwent) F and a variety of non-visual target material such as music e=erptse the taste of a foode etc. In considering this large category perhaps it should first be noted that Braud, Davisr and Opella (1985) in their ncn-pair no target study, found a :edcmu=ce of activity contained in ganzfeld and dreaming imagery. Gurneyr Myers and tbdmore (1886) reporting on the findings of the Society for Psychical Research's census of Hallucinations found that in cases of apparent QW of literal cns of the agent's bodily sensation (pain, smell, touch, etc.) were rarely transmitted. They noted from their own . that while taste was perceived in experimental situations, they received no accounts of such in the spontaneous reports. The spontaneous cases seldom cmtained reports of touchr and when it was reported it was normally associated with auditory and/or visual impressions. music and other auditory stimuli were frequently reported. learcollier (1963) informally observed that moving objects or the ability of the target to suggest movement sewed to be perceived by the subject. Warcollier (1938) also expressed the belief that kinesthetic sensaticns should be easily transmitted, but admitted to having little data to back this up. Reporting on an Esalen Meting on Psi Research,, Schlitz (1984) rel;ported general agreme amcng the participants that kinesthetic, auditory and olfactory images were as important#, if not more sot as visual immges in conveying psi Information. Hanca.-ton and Schechter (1987),, rppnrting on the significant (p 0.027,, 1-t.) outccme of 187 autcmated testing ganzfeld sessions, found that sessicns using dynamic targets (video segments and other 'lifelike' material) were . i I '''ly significant (p, = 0.007,, 1-t)l, while those using static targets (defined as "still pictures") were at chance. 7he between the two was suggestive, but not significant (p = 0.079, 2-0. Likewiser Krippner and Zeicbner (1974) found more hits associated with targets having dynamic content (whether this finding was significant was not reported) . I Altcm and Braud (1976.) ran a pilot study aimed at exploring the idea that right-hemisphere brain activity way be ccnducive to psi. They used four different excerpts of music as targets, which it was thought might encourage right-hemisphere activity. They obtained a significant level of psi scoring (p = 0.05). Kesner and biorris (1978) ccnducted a guided Imagery, precognition study using music from records and their album covers as targets. The subjects " imagery was rated by an mdependent judge who ly rated subjects' visual and auditory imagery. Neither the results from the visual 'or the auditory ratings were indepe@itly significant, however the two carbined were (p, < 0.02)t suggestint sen involved in a target, the better. g that the sen Several dream studies have been ccnducted using dynamic target material. Krippner, Hanortonf and Ullman (1972) obtained significant results (p, < .001) usings therratically related slidesr acomqxLnied by an Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CA&RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 9 R Release 2 1%@- 117 8 9 R 0 JY1 pOeO 11 -5 Approved For VM7t"-RPf C%JJALWJ-I&-L=4 es op?R@get material Kx Honatt=r et. al. (1972) again elic, a significant level of psi-- (P = .004). An even higher level of' ignificant scoring (p = OC obtained by Krippner, Ullmant et. al. (1972) using the multi- 3- target: envixamient described in introduction of this pap previously mentionedr Ullman ane Krip (1973) found tint paint hurans engaged in activity seemed to more successful than a t Paintings in the Ecwin series. Th BeQOnd ' &win h studyt whic obtained a significant degree of psi- i (reported @ effects i I 4 tiing order of a thousand to cne" p.116) ,, used art prints togeth associated objects and activities on part n of the agent. p Dunne and Bisaha (1979),, ' e w ewing seven remote viewing noted that dynamic targets were percel as readily as stationar tin U, Yetr Puthoff and Targ (1979) cmTnentin upon their remote viewt said that motion was very rarely r f even when it was an im component of the scene. Although,, P Puthoffe h and g May (1979) "that real-time activities at the targ t s@ arg site are often perceived" These authors also noted that "in addi add3 . io@ ion to visually observable sme ls subjects scmetires report sounds, sme ls, electrcmagnetic fields, forthr which can be verified as existir g at target locations" (p.9! should be noted that the above three obs ervations were all ancedota'- Two studies made speci fic a mpariscns between static ckynamic target characteristics. Hcno on and Schechter C1987) ol highly significant psi effects with dy c targets,, while static i obtained chance results. Krippner Zeichrv-ar (1974) found mm associated with dynamic targets. findings of Kesner and (1978) and those of the reviewed fti)dies further suggc-- possible benefits of using multi-s target materials. Plorm / Meaning and Idea Camients related to the importance f the shape or fam of the or same of its components are included this category. Puthoff an (1979),, in discussing their remote vi g work stated "most correct that subjects re ate is of a nonanalytic pertaining to form, colour, and terial rather than to funct namew (P. 65). Barrington (1983), revi i g past work with the Stefan Ossowiecki,, found many exampl where the form of the targ been correctly identified but not th meaning, a situation whi( labelled as win=rprehending clairvvo~yr x * Similarly, Warcollier a 1963) observed that frequently the s e of a target would be per without reference to the target's meanin or idea,, although he also that meaning and idea may also be without specific referer shape. Warcollier (1938) also discuss the work of Richonnet reference provided) noting that Richo : net thought that fam wa-- easier to perceive than meaning and woul d be perceived prior to percx of the identity (idea) of the ESP target , The Nmeaning and idea" categoriza includ informaticn refe on to situations where the meaning, ' and or identity w?xe perce without reference to the shape or phys @ ca cal appearance of the tz Carington (1940) believed that the idea a target,, not 'the fonn,, , a _ Gurneyr what would ccm through to the subject. Myers and Podmore ( received reports which indicated that m eaning and idea were the iupc aspects of the target. The exmiple tIx y provide of this is where a in one language is received in another, having been suitably transl Marsh (1960),, in a study using siz ple line drawings as tar cmcmted that subjects tended to reprod Lce the omcept of the t Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-007017@03100110001-5 ]-=roVM FoOftle a L&Jfff : bd .? ME is' a g to Warcoll@" he ieft i t&V ly transmitted than a drawing (i.e. form). As noted abovet Puthoff and Targ U979) believed that most o=ect information provided by subjects pertained to the nmmlytic aspects of targets such as fom, shape and colour. Indeed,, they thought that errors could arise when the subject tried to make sense (i.e. label according to name and function) of such ixmanalytical target r-nnF ments. This category presents some conflicting observations and opinions, all of wftich are anecdotal in nature, regarding the utility of farm, as opposed to meaning and idear in conveying psirrelat-ed information. Given this state of affairst the only conclusion that can be drawn is that research aimed at resolving this question is needed. motion Any ccmments having to do with the emotional content of or emotional reactions to target materials were included in this category, Sam researchers have also made comments about specific target themes/content which could be interpreted as having a strong emotional matEcuient (e.g. war scenes, exotic scenes, religious themes, etc.). However, whether these themes would be regarded as positive or negative would probably vary greatly from subject to subject. Thereforef, these findings will not be referred to in this section unless the author specifies that the emotionality of the target was an important factor in the study's success or failure. Gurney , Myers , and Podmore (1886) observed that in spontaneous cases emotions were frequently received, often with the receiver having no idea why they were experiencing certain feelings. However, the ination by the percipient was later found to be appropriate to the event which was taking place at the tine, unknown to the percipient (e.g. feeling sadness over the death of a close friend). Mrcollier (1938) also catments that in spontaneous cases, the message is almost always emotional. Willi,ams and Duke (1979) conducted a study specifically various target qualities and their relationship to psi ormance. They cknumed a 39-item Target Evaluation Rating which measured various target qualities, including overall emotional impact and positive and negative emotional dimensions, upon which each of 152 targets were rated. 7hey then lodoed at data,, gathered from 174 subjectsr from other fzee-respcnse studies which had used these targets. Flor the purposes of their analysis, they excluded any target which had not been randomly chosen as a target at. least three times in the previous studies. This criterion prxmided. 22 targetsp and ESP data from 91 subjects (overall significant psi-hitting was obtained, p < .047, 2-0. The individual psi g;cores'cbtained for each of these 22 targets were averaged to provide a C I psi so=e for each target. The canposite psi scores were divided into good psi targets and poor psi targets resulting in 12 high psi-s=ing targets and 10 lao-psi scoring targets- Ccirparing these targets to the total emortion score (the mean of the positive and negative euxtion ratings) from the Target Evaluation Ratings, they found that targets containing a stronger emotional content were significantly better (i.e. high psi-scoring targets) than nan-emoticnal targets (p < .001). Sandow, Braud and Barker (1981) conducted a ganzfeld study also aimed at investigating target qualities, which obtained a significant outcome using a sum of ranks (P < .04 1-t), but did not reach significance using direct hits as a measurement. Using the Target Evaluation Rating, Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : e&-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved F0IeW6WrbaD"03*'kt6bURlDftW0 9MOMIDUMe5ed, five hax relatively high miotion rating and five having a low esnotion = Each high emotion pack cmsisted of two p ositive and two ne@;ative en pictures; the low emotion packs omsL- ted of two natural scxmes ar Pictures of material objects. This caq lex study involved many diff meamn-events and analyses, of which on ly those most relevant tc paper will be reported. , The neutral (l ow) emotion target packs E more psi-hitting than the high emotic n picturesg, with the diffE approaching significance (p = .052, 2-t). Using a scale tliey deviE measure emotion which both the subjects a id agents completed, they that when a high emotion picture was :he target, i @rs would more total emotion whilst in the ganzf 31d than did receivers with emotion target pack (p < .04, 2-t). Also receivers felt more em)t:Lcr. senders felt more emotion while sendi- ig (P < .04o, l-Q. Sm Stanford (1984) has pointed out that this latter finding coul artifactual due to cmmmalities of ence between subjects agents (e.g. the weather that day). us' Osgood's Semantic; Differe to measure the r.@xr; of the pictures t r they foLmd there OnFts hits when the receivers and s luation of the targets we i zat-i close agreement than when their Ms widely differed. twenty targets where agreement was close,@ nine were direct hits (p l-Q. Both Williams and Duke (1979) and Sondowr Braud and Barker found significant outcomes in various ' lyses examining bow, well subjects liked (emotionally preferred) the target@. Wil 11mm and (1979), caqparing subjects' ratings of target preference for hit missed targets for two different of subjects (with the r being made prior to 3taining feedba: k as to the target ident found the first group of 101 subjects s ly preferred ta: with which they had obtained a hit (p < .035o, 2-Q# as did the st group of 80 subjects (p < .0038, 2-t). A similar finding was report the Sondow et al. (1981) study, where a between Likin Psi-hit and for psi-missed targets again yielded a outccz < .0096P 2-t). Another analysis in th m study showed that pic- received a significantly higher liking rank (p < .00940, 2-t) when were the target than when they were Control. Braud and laewem- (1982) also found that psi-hitters 1 their targets signifia better than psi-rrdssers (p < .025, Two other significant tz preference findings were presented in ud and Boston (1986). authors replicated the preference (p < .036r 1-t) r and reported similar results fram Braud, akles & Syles (p < .045, Hwever, these findings say be - ted due to raspcxm problena. To quote Stanford (198 "these findings couk artifactual;... Because of their desire or su sp subjects may ter like pictures which correspond to ganzfeld mentation, and correspondence tends to be greater and e detailed when ESP has actr occurred. Thus such pictures may be 1 ppreciably an (p. I Many forced-choice studies have a role of target prefere These findings have been reviewed by er (1977) and Palmer (1.c, In drawing some cmclusions about these Palmer c%zments while a preferential effect has been most often Owith respec: response type rather than target typer i (the -- erence hypothe offers our best hope to date of intergrati ng a very messy and incansis body of data ----Brning the effect o f target type on MW scorin, cz-icied-mro,ho.ce ts." (p. 87). Krippner, honorton, et al. (1972 ) considered their tar Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00MR@03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 -5 (thdaiatically related slides and appz xciate sound tracks) to be emotionally arousing, and t1xmight that their significant results provided support for the use of such material. Ullnian and Krippier (1973) also felt "that an important ingredient in the success of s in dream telepathy over waking telepathy ... is the use of potent, vivid,, emotionally impressive human interest pictures to which both agent and subject Can relate." (p. 210). moss (1968; also see: Moss, 1969; and Moss & Gengerelli, 1968) described the evolution of her wiperimental methodology over a series of six experimnts. Ew#wizing the ip@ance of using emotionally arousing targets, her targets evolved to consist of slides accompanied by appmpriate scumid effects paired so as to present cmtrasting emotions. 7he results from these studies were very sketchily presented, although significant outcomes were described for some of the studies. However , no was made between either emotionally arousing targets and neutral ones, or between the effectiveness of the different contrasting emotions. :En a series of studies Preiser (1986) found that ESP perfczmnce was highly dependent on the emotional loading of the target material. 7he n about this study is limited as it was obtained from an abstract. Howevere while no overall significance was obtained, one part of the series did get a significant ESP outcome. Cavanna and Servadio (1964) stressed the careful choosing of targets which they considered to have definite am icnal significance. Mile they did not obtain significant psi-scoringr they did express the belief that their future targets should be chosen to be even stronger, emotionally. Some studies utilizing physiological measurements have used targets chosen to have specific emotional significance for individual subjects. Esser, Etter, and Chamberlain (1967) used pl ysmographic responses to personalized target material,, devised from initial interviews with the participants. The resulting targets, designed to have greater emotional significance for either the percipient or the agent, were either names of importance to the subject or sentences or quotes describing a emotiona.1 conflict of relevance to the Participants. No significant outcows were obtained, but the results were suggestive in -that there was some - lence between onset of the sending period and ]plesdxIq=xjraph responses. Dean (1971) contrasted pl recordings of vasoconstriction examining the reaction of subjects to targets consisting of either a blank card or a card upon which was written a name of a person who has emotional significance to the subject. He found larger vasoccnstricticns (i.e. more emotional arousal) for the names than for the blanks. 7his study also had a-group of control subjects for whom the names would have had no special relevance. Interestingly,, he found that: the control subjects displayed a greater level of reaction to the names than did the subjects for whom the names had emotional significance. Haraldsom (1983) again used s of emotional significance to the participants as the target in a study using a ples . I AlycauLitJi AL cataNo overall significant results were obtained,, however, he did obtain a significant outcome in the first 20 sessions of the study (p < .003). with results declining later. Several studies have compared targets having positive emotional qualities to those having negative emotional stics. Williams and Duke (1979), comparing good psi targets to poor psi targetst found that targets which contained a positive emotion were s . y better targets (p < .02) than those which did not and that targets which contained negative emotion were significantly worse (p < .047) than those which did not. Sondowr Braud and Barker (1981) found no significant Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : F4@4-RDP96.00789RO03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789RP03100110001-5 difference between positive and nega . emotional targets., Eisenb Donderi (1979) used 7 emotionally stimu lating sound films as targe study incoporating both forced-choice l and free-response conditions obtained a significant degree of psi-hi tting (fcrced-choice conditi 02; free-response ccndition: p < .001). The film clip Zssified as conveying either p Dsitive or negative em although no significant difference was found between the scoring Pos.tUve and negative emotional 0 KripMppr and Zeicbner found more misses when the target was lescribed as pleasant and mcx when the target was described as unpl Basant (whether these findin significant is not reported). Cne forced-choice study wh specifically addresse positive/negative issue was conducted JdmsOn (1971),who asked a t to provide two words,, one having an ly pleasant nmning . : 9 subject and the other having a very leasant meaning, f=m WkL created targets of associated wxonrds/c cepts. These concepts C (set targets) were paired with a digit one to five (primar y f ta- although 20 per cent of the primary t ets were left uppa ired t control (enctionally neutral targets). The subjects in this precor study were to guess what number would b B selected as the target. compared performance on positive, ne xtral and negative emoticx significant overall scoring was ai!, iedo, the positive targets s! n0p7significant degree of psi-hitting, the negative targets. signif' psi-n'Lissed (p = .0094l 1-t),, and the neutral targets scored at c The difference between the positive an& negative targets was sigrr (P < .005f 1-t). 'The anecdotal observaticns in this category reveal thal researchers believe emotional targe to be superior to rxm-m ones. However, only two studies (Wil iaMs & Duke, 1979; @til and Sor al., 1981) explicitly examined s assumption and they ol conf licting results. one analysis in Sc ndow et al. (1981) found thE Percipient would experience more emotic n with a high eimoth= target as this study also obtained a greatx r degree of psi--hitt-ing wi emotion targets, this result could be seen as arguing ag&Lmt the high emotion targets. Nor can the siological studies be :L interpreted as providing support for th e utility of using itarget no chosen to have specific emotional sign ificance for individual suh Aside frcxn the general lack of significa nt outocimes of these studies Dean (1971) study actually obtained a g@ -eater response fnn his c subjects to whom the target: mat . 1 . should have had no E relevance. The studies ccaparing r ositive es iomi targets t:c with negative emotive qualities also ob tained conflicting results. again more research is needed before any canclusions can be regarding the psi-conducive effects of *ational targets. Them / Cmrtent category includes all refe content or theme of individual targets targets. William and Duke (1979) fogn targets were natural, while the objects--mtal, concrete, man-nmde, an analysis revealed this difference t Jabn, and Nelson (1983), reporting on noted that there was no difference in e site characteristics: natural vs. man- indoor vs. outdoor. The Psychophy Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-007"E mces which associate the sp with the success/failure of that ftwt of the psi-h missing targets were um mechanical. * (p. 8) A pa be significant (p, 4: .02). 1 several remote viewing sti 'ectiveness between the fol: ade; permanent vs. transierr. cal Research. LWxmatory 103100110001-5 cmAp1M%iEq1f1Sr Pt%!&W2&OlLq3/qrcjq~A-~~gMtOPZ82&0211pcU1 Mel &re successful than others. 7he category of "disasters" obtained significant psi-hitting (p = .014f 2-t). Sexual themes were associated with significant psi-missing (p - .008t 2-t). Non-significaryt, scoring in the psi-hitting direction was obtained by (listed in descending order of strength of effect) the categories of religiono, sports/hunting,, localesr and anirrals. Non-significant scoring in the psi-missing direction was obtained by the racing and fightIng/warfare categories. A post hoc analysis by Sorxbw (1979) found that targets were chosen and n, avoided Significantly often when the pictures showed horses (p < .01), water (p < .02)t fire (p < .03), and flying-leaping-swinging (p < .04). &Lch effects were not found with the target categories of food, war and famines, and music. Ullimn and Krippner (1973) observed that the art prints cantaining/portraying religion, colour, eating/drinking, emotions, and people tended to be successful, as did the agent"s mult:b-sensory involvMent with the target. Stuart (1945) r using simple line drawings as targets found that the two nmt successful targets portrayed a cartoon cbaracter and a candle. The two least successful targets were a book and at mathemattical equation. In another drawing studyt Stuart (1947) found the best target was a church and the worst was a train. Tastly,, Braud, Davis,, and Cpella (1985) found a predominance of human characters and architectural content contained in ganzfeld and dreaming imagery. r@ess frequent were mythical characters, animals, food, and unconnected body parts. 7hese findings could contribute to spurious anecdotal observations. EXMuining these diverse content categories it was discoved that religion was mentioned three times as a generally successful target topic. Warfare was twice mentioned as being less successful. Williams and Duke (1979) found.that natural targets were associated with psi-hitting, and the q ;;; specified as successful by Sondlow (1979) could also be class as 1. However,, given the wide diversity of actual targets which these findings represent, these similarities should be viewed at most as possible trends which require further reseach for con.firmaticn. Discussion The Most consistent category findings of this paper relate to the possible advantages of using dynamic,, multi-sensory targets. However, tJhese findings are based m the outcome of relatively few studies and thus should be treated with caution pending further confirmation. 7he novel category Provided scine tentative support for the use of new targets with which the subject is not familiar for each trial with that subject, and also suggested possible benefits of using imaginative and interesting targets.. But again these finding are derived from very few studies. 2ie two findings relevant to the abstract categorization both found abstract targets to be associated with poorer results. 7he etc Jonality CcE targetsr often quoted in the literature as one of the yardsticks by which targets are chosen, has not been shown to be reliably associated with Psi-hitting. Nor have arry of the other categories investigated herein. In Short,, this review has not succeeded in shedding a great deal light upon what qualities/characteristics might discriminate successful from unsuccessful - Lse targets. Indeed,, the outcome of this Paper could be viewed as demonstrating how very little we actually know about successful versus unsuccessful target characteristics. Hamver another Jazt-I ion of these findings could be that Approved For Release 2001/03/0724JIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 f-%, ated to su= Approved Fo&tMMe%M6W@'=-&4,%-0 W-4tim-M Mony years Wa"=llier (1963) ccamnted that NNo two subjects respond alike tr sa target. No two targets seem tA) affect the same subject ir way. R (P. 56). Indeed, a 't deal of operijwntaticr examined and revealed interactions various trait factoz gX11 Psi Perfo=rance (for reviews of this 1 see Palm-mr, 197, CarPenterf 1977). Other variables as state, settingj, rL-- S nce mBth0d#, and so on, may also influence the ParticUlar t- Of t ype which is successful in any given sItUation. Future research Profitably examine the effects of such variables. In addit:ion, develoPamt of a descriptive set of scal # such as the three-dimen-- scale discussed in the introduction of t1is paper, which could be us an inter-liaboratcry basist could forwaracur knowledge of target 5L Considerably. The develcment of such scales will be the focus of f research at the Minburgh Lab. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789R@03100110001-5 > 0 "!@ (D CL -n 10 (D (D m Q Q Q W 4 W G) 6 Q -4 0 0 CD X Q Q W _L Q Q Q Q Q _L Zn REFERENCES ALTON, K. & BRAUD, W. 0. (1976). Clairvoyant and telepathic impression* of musical targets. In J. D. Morris & V. 0. Roll (Rds.), Besearch In Parapsychology 1975 (pp. 171-174). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey. BARRINGTON, M. R. (1983). The mediusehip of Stefan Ossowiecki. In W. 0. Roll, J. Beloff & R. A. Whit* (Ed&.), Research in Parapsychology 1982 (pp. 12-15). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen. New Jersey. BRAUD, L. V. & BOSTON, D. A. (1986). Target preference and clairvoyance In selected subjects following relaxation induction. In D. H. Weiner & D. 1. Radin (Rds.), Researen in Paraipsycbology 1985 (pp. 25-28). Scarecrow Press. Metuchen, New Jersey. pal. BRAUD, L. V. & LOEWENSTEIN, 1. (1982). Creativity and In W. 0. Roll, R. L. Morris & R. A. White (Edo.), BS*earcb in Parayevcholody 1981 (pp. 111-115). Scarecrow Prose, Metuchen, New Jersey. BRAUD, W., DAVIS, G. & OPELLA, J. (1985). Blectroderual and imagery concomitants of ganzfeld stimulation. Parapsychology Review. Vol. 16, No. 4. 1-5. CARINGTON, W. (1940). Experiments on the paranormal cognition of drawings. Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Research, Vol. 46, No. - 164, 34-151. CARPENTERP J. C. (1977). Intrasubject k subject-agent effects in ESP experiments. In B. B. Volman (Ed.) Handbook of Paraipsychology, Van Nostrand Reinhold L Co., New York, 202-272. CAVANNA, R. & SRRVADIO, R. (1964). ESP experiments with LSD 25 and Pallocybin: A methodological approach. Parapsychological Monosraybe No. 5, Parapsychology Foundation, Now York. DRAM, E. De (1971). Long-distance plethymnograph telepathy with agent under water. paraiparShology Association Convention Proceedings, 1969, No.6, 41-42. DUNNE, B. J. & BISARAv J. P. (1979). Precognitive remote perception: a critical overview of the experimental program. ParSporchology Convention Proceedings 1979, 22nd. Annual Conference, Morago, California. DUNNE, B. J., JAHN, R. 0. & NELSON, R. D. (1983). Precognitive remote perception. Entineering Anomalies Research Technical Note FEAR 830Q3, Princeton University, School of Ing ineerinff/Appl Ind Science. EISENBERG, H. & DONDERI, D. C. (1979). Telepathic transfer of emotional information In humans. Journal of Psycholosr, Vol 103. 19-43. ESSER, A. H., ETTER, T. L. &CHAMBERLAIN, W. B. (1967). Preliminary report: physiological concomitants of communication" between Isolated subjects. International Journal of Paralparchology, -Vol. 9, No. 1, 53-56. GURNEY, R., MYERS, F. W. H. & PODMORE, F. (1886). Phantasm* of the Living. Trubner k Co., London. HARALDSSON, R. (1983). Vasoootor reactions as indicator* of extrasensory perception. . In R. A. White (Rd.) Parapsychology Abstracts International, Vol. 1, Mo. 1. 25-26. HONORTON, C. & SCHECHTER, R. 1. (1987). Gansfeld target retrieval with an automated testing system: A model for loon initial sanzfeld success. In D. H. Weiner k R. D. Me (Rds.). Research in Parapsychology 1986 (pp. 36-39). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey. IRWIN, C. P. (1982). The roll of memory in free-response ESP studies: in target familiarity reflected in the scores? Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Vol. 76, No. It 1-22. JOHNSON, M. (1971). An attempt to effect scoring behavior in a group test of precognition by means of manipulation of motivation and by the use of individually assigned emotionally loaded target material. Research Letter of the Parapsychological Division of the Psychological Laboratory, University of Utrecht, 15-32. KENNEDY, J. R. (1980). Information processing in ESP: A survey of forced-choice Experiments using multiple-aspect targets. Journal of Perapsyebolos , Vol. 44, No. 1. 9-34. KESMER, J. & MORRIS, R. L. (1978). A precognition. text using guided imagery. In W. 0. Roll (Ed.), aSsearoh in Parapsychology 1977. (pp. 48-52). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jere ey. KRIPPHER, S. (1970). Commenting upon a paper by T. Noun "Telepathy in the waking state: an experimental design". In R. Cavanna (Ed.), Proceedings of an International Conference on Methodology in Put Research, 1968, > -0 0 < M CL -n 0 A) Q Q Q W Q -4 0 > 0 T W G) 6 Q 4 00 W X Q Q Q Q Q Q > 0 < (D CL -n Pdrapsychology Foundation, New York, 136-137. EXPPNER, S. & ZEICHWER, S. (fS74). Descriptive analysis dF art print& telepathically transmitted during sleep. In lig G. Roll. R. L. Morris & J. D. Morris (Ede.), Research AA Parapsychology 1973, (pp. 27-28). Scarecrow Press. t%tuchen, New Jersey. 10PPNER, S., HONORTON, C. & ULLKAN, M. (1972). A second peacognitive dream study with a selected subject. In G. Roll, R. L. Morris & J. D. Morris (Ede.), PO-apsychological Association eroceedings. 1971, No. 8, M-79. KRAPPMER. S., HONORTON, C., ULLMAN, M., MASTERS, R. h HOUSTON, J. 11972). A long-distance "sensory bombardment" iU-dreau study. In W. G. Roll. R. L. Morris & J. D. r0rris (Rds.)s Parapsychological Association Proceedints. AW0, No. 1. 49-51. J%PPNER, S., ULLMAN, M., HONORTON, C., HUGHES, W., DMAN. G. & HARRIS, R. (1972). An eight-night study of pq%cognitive dreams using BEG-HOG techniques. In W. G. Ran, R. L. Morris & J. D. Morris (Ede.). PG:6Dsychological Association Proceedings, 1970, No. 7, 2&28. ra-sensory perception. Journal of the Society for chical Research, Vol. 40, 219-239. -Q6AHAN, Z. A. & RHINE, J. B. (1941). A second Wreb-Durham ESP experiment. Journal of Paraipsychology, Vol. 11, No. 4, 244-253. a M&S, T. (1969). ESP effects In "artists" contrasted witb "won-artists". Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 33, No. 1, S&69. MOSS, T. 11970). Telepathy in the waking state: an experimental design. In R. Cavanna (Rd.).- Proceedings of an International CQnferelice on Methodology in Pat, Researgh, 1968, Parapsychology Foundation. New York, 121-142. MOSS, T., a 08maRRELLI, J. A. (1968). ESP effects generated by affenti-p- oRtot- . I - 0 " @ - - - - - I I PRRISER, S. (1986). Emotion versus information: a methodological - critique. In R. A. White (Ed.) Parapsychology Abstracts International, Val. 4. No. 1. PSYCHOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LABORATORY (1985)'. 1985 Psychophysical Repeareb haboratorX Annual Revort. PUTHOFF, H. E. & TARG. R. (1979). A perceptual channel for information transfer over kilometer distances: historical perspective and recent research. In C. T. Tart, H. B. Puthoff & R. Targ (Ede.) Mind at Large, Praeger Publishers, New York. New York. ROLL, W. G. k HARARY, K. (1976). Target reponses during out-of-body experiences. In "The 1976 SERPA Convention - report by Gerald Solfvin", Parapsychology Review, Vol. 7, No. 3. 1-7. SCHLITZ, M. (1984). Esalen meeting on psi research. Parapsychology Review, Val. 15, No. 6, 10-12. SONDOW, N. (1979). Effects of association and feedback on psi in the ganzfeld: in there more than meets the Judge's eye?. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Vol. 73, No. 2, 123-150. SONDOW, N., BRAUD, L. & BARKER, P. (1981). Target qualities and affect measures in an exploratory psi ganzfeld. Parapsychological Association Convention 0 < CD CL -n 0 CD CD W (A CD -4 0 > -4 00 to STANFORD, R. G. (1984). Recent ganzfeld-ESP research: a survey and critical analysis. In R. G. Stanford A S. Krippner (Rds.) Advances in Parapgrabological Research 4. McFarland & Co., Jefferson, North Carolina, 83-111. STUART, C. Z. (1945). A classroom ESP experiment with-the free-response method. Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 9, No. 2, 92-10S. STUART. C. E. (1946s). GESP experiments with the free-response method. Journal of Parapsychology. Vol. 10, No. 1. 21-35. STUART, C. 1. (1946b). An interest inventory relation to ESP scores. Journal of Paraipsygholggy, Vol. 10, No. 3. 154-161. 01 W 0 0 0 0 0 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 TARGI E. 9 TARG, R. & LICHTARGE, 0. (1986). Realtime clairvoyance: a study of remote viewing without feedback. In D. H. Weiner & D. I. Radin (Eds.) Research in 1)arapsychology, 1985 (pp. 36-39). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey. TARG, R. I PUTHOFFO H. E. MAY, E. C. (1979). Direct perception of remote geographical locations. In C. T. Tart, H. E. Puthoff & Targ, R. (Eds.) Mind at Large, Praeger, New York. ULLMANp M. & KRIPPNER, S. (1973). Dream Telepathl. Penguin, Baltimore. WARCOLLIER, R. (1938). Experimental Telepathy. Boston Society for Psychical Research, Boston. WARCOLLIER, R. (1963). Mind to Mind. Collier Books, New York, New York. WILLIAMSt L. B. & DUKEj M. (1979). Qualities of free-response targets and their relationship to psi performance. Parapsychology Association 22nd. Annual Conference Proceedings, 1979, Moraga, California. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 ?6A-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL FREE-RESPONSE TARGETS: THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS by Caroline Watt Psychology Department University of Edinburgh ABSTRACT 'This paper describes theoretical ideas from a variety ol sources as to what might be expected to make a successful free-response GESP target. Popular "how to be psychic" literature, analyses of the characteristics of spontaneous cases, and theoretical suggestions from psycholbgy and parapsychology show considerable consistency in their suggestions about the likely features of a good target. Two main recommendations appear to emerge from these sources - good GESP targets should be psychologically salient and physically salient 1. targets In parapsychological research should be meaningful, have emotional impact and human Interest - this may make them salient in the minds of our experimental participants; and, 2. targets should also be physically salient by standing out from their backgrounds - properties such as movement, novelty, brightness and contrast tend to make stimuli physically salient. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approo4jfRAIMM19 PAW AML19§fflr9k7 THEORETICAL CONSID E14TRODUCTION Deborah Delanoy (1988) examined the observc, literature on what makes a good GESP target. D( findings seen in this literature, it was possible to about what experimenters believe constitutes a go( be seen as forming the second half of our observati parapsychological research. Delanoy described wh characteristics of successful GESP targets, coi free-response experiments in parapsychology. I theoretical suggestions as to what might be expeck more widely (and consequently with less depth) ovei something relevant to say on this question. As stressed by Delanoy, our combined efforts an primarily aimed at getting some Idea of what kind research In Edinburgh. To do this, we looked journals (JASPR, JP, JSPR, EJP, UP), parapsyc convention proceedings, RIP, Parapsychology Revi in the Koestler Chair library, and I have also exami which I consider relevant to the target question. cases where authors made specific comments aboL GESP targets. Firstly, this paper briefly considers so-called "Alri: some research by Professor Robert Morris and his ., be psychic" books which can be found in airl Secondly, the paper examines (again briefly) the I seems to be transmitted in people's spontaneous p paper considers some theoretical suggestions by pC, be expected to make a good GESP target. Then own on possible characteristics of a successful GE the psychological I 'iterature on human-environment and attributions of causality. The paper ends with a @ PRME TARGET! MONS, ions from some froe-respor ;pite the flaws and contradict. -nake a few general stateme: J GESP target. This paper c ns and thoughts about targets t is currently believed about t -.entrating on relatively fo .m contrast this paper describ I to make good targets, roami some varied literature which h far from comprehensive, bei )f targets we should use in c irough some parap.sychologl( ological abstracts, PA and I N, certain "relevant" books h( Eid some psychological resear 'articular attention was given the characteristics of success irt Project" books [named aft udents using the kind of "how 3rt bookshops (Morris, 1977 nd of "target" information whi( ychic experiences. Thirdly, tI- apsychologists as to what mig make some suggestions of n ;P target, derived from some interactions, curiosity-, attentio immarv and conclusions. I I would like to thank Prof. Jim Crandall, Dr. Deborah Delanoy, Dr. Julie Milton, Prc Robert Morris and Mr. Robin Taylor for their valuable criticisms of and contributions this paper. 248 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 L, "AIRPORT PROJECT" BOOKS A skim through the 21 "how to be psychic" books which form part of the Koestler Chair library, and which I felt might have some comments to make about targets, found only 6 authors who made recommendations on what might make a good target when training psychic powers. Even then, the authors invariably failed to define their terms or write more than a sentence on the subject. These recommendations should therefore be treated with caution, as they do not represent the findings of careful scientific experimentation. On the other hand, they may have something to suggest about popular ideas of what makes a good GESP target, and these ideas may be based on some grain of truth. Boswell (1969) recommended the use of "mentally stimulating" targets. Also, he felt that physical sensation and especially emotion were easily transmitted, and that colour was picked up better than black and white. Edwards (no date) suggests that faces and pictures make good targets. Denning & Phillips (1981) recommend trying to transmit a message of emotional significance to the receiver. Likewise, Sherman (1960) says that It is crucial to have some emotional content to the target. A related area of interest is psychometry, where an object is used to provide further information about its owner. Powell (1979) recommends using as a token object metal or leather which has been close to the skin for a long time and therefore has had a chance to build up some personal association with the owner. Finally, Burns (1981) feels the following make good practice targets for developing GESP: pictures (rather than words); something experienced vividly by the agent; flavours; body position of the agent, or whether the agent is sitting in the light or dark; and sizes and weights of objects. There do seem to be some common themes in these authors' suggestions, though the small sample covered here means that any patterns could be illusory: emotional impact seems to be important (though little is said about whether the specific emotions should be positive or negative ones); and targets conveying information about events happening to humans seem popular. 2. SPONTANEOUS CASES There is a considerable literature concerning the sort of information conveyed in spontaneous cases of ESP, and so as a necessary constraint this section is limited to observations from Sybo Schouten's (1979b, 1982) examination of two great collections of spontaneous cases - Phantasms of the Living and the Louisa Rhine collection. Schouten made a quantitative analysis of these collections with a view to finding patterns and relationships which might stimulate further experimental research. As he pointed out, the two collections covered quite different cultures and eras, and were gathered for different purposes. The collectors of the "Phantasms" cases took great pains to investigate and verify their cases, and had a special interest in receiving that 249 ApptoiwchitiunReiaaadt2W*iWo57itzi64"QIRVn 0Qq0PAl18$ than decease persons. In contrast, the Rhine collection took cases more or less at face value, wit the idea that inaccuracies would cancel each other out over a large number of case, and the reports were gathered with the aim of providing suggestions for futur laboratory research (Schouten, 1986). Excluding 150 of the cases (for reasons outlined analysed the remaining "Phantasms" cases acco categories (Schouten, 1979a) and found that about 7 illness or injury to the target person, though a tendei for longer than trivial events accounted for some of tl conveyed Information about positive experiences of thi Table I (from Schouten, 1979b, p.432) Situation of target person at time of experience death 66.7% serious illness 12.5% slight injuries 8.7% serious material .5% slight material .2% trivial 10.0% positive 1.4% in Schouten 1979b), Schoute ding to 32 previously-define M of the cases involved deatt cy to remember serious event is pattern. Only 1.4% of case target person. It is interesting to note that slight personal injuries were more often the topic o spontaneous experiences (8.7%) than serious material damage (for example, E building on fire, considerable financial loss) (0.5%). This suggests that negativc events related to humans are particularly strong targets In spontaneous cases. Similar patterns are observed In Schouten's (1982) where he analysed a representative sarriple (15%) c: 75% of the sample concerned negative events such while almost no cases concerned material damage. i tendency to remember and report serious events mor( accounts for some of this pattern. However, the distril Rhine collection differs from the Phantasms collectlor, cases involving death of the target person (37.7% conpared cases involving serious accidents and slight injuries. , this difference may be due to the Phantasms collectors' cases. study of the Rhine collection- f cases (excluding PK). Abou@, as death, Injury and accident s with the Phantasms study, -0 often than non-sedous events iution of negative events in the with the former having fewer with 66.710/6), but more ks Schouten points out, part of preference for apparition in summary, Schouten's analyses of spontaneous Mase collections suggest that negative events related to humans feature predominantly as "targets*, although this observation may be partlydue to a reporting bias. It is significant that both the Rhine and the Phantasms, cases share this pattern despite the very different methods used Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDPA%0789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 to gather these collectlons. Evidently parapsychologists cannot Inflict physical injury on their experimental participants in order to simulate real-life spontaneous cases. However, negative physical events are likely to have a negative emotional impact both on the target person and on the percipient (especially if they are emotionally close). Possibly, therefore, targets which have some strong negative emotional impact on a person may have more success in a free-response expedmental setting than trivial or impersonal targets. Further, it might be expected that any emotional impact is better than none, and so positive emotional targets could perhaps be successfully used in expedmental research - this might circumvent any researcher's concern about the ethics of exposing expedmental participants to unpleasant targets. 3. THEORETICAL SUGGESTIONS BY PARAPSYCHOLOGISTS Although this is not a comprehensive review, I have tried to cover instances where authors have made specific comments about likely successful targets. Their suggestions range from post hoc inferences based on the kinds of targets which were successful in experimental studies to observations of what makes a good target in areas of research related to parapsychology. Lei Shan (1977) criticizes parapsychologists for often neglecting to consider the theoretical assumptions underpinning their research. There has been little discussion, he feels, of what kind of information psi transmits even though there seems to be wide agreement that psi does transmit information. As an example of how theodsing on this Issue might influence our experimental design and choice of target material, Le Shan considers the possibility that psi might depend on Individual differences, being better adapted for one purpose with one person and another purpose in a different person. In this case, he suggests we should "customize" our targets by examining expedmental participants for their personal Interests, philosophies, preferred sensory modalities, and so on. One of the few studies specifically to examine how target charactedstics relate to psi performance was conducted by Williams & Duke (1979), who go on to discuss theoretical suggestions derived from their observations. Taking an evolutionary perspective and asking what sort of information might have been most crucial to communicate before language evolved In humans, they conclude that targets reflecting "emotion, sex, survival, nature, food and other basic concerns might be psychically perceived better than other types of targets" (p.1 5) In a similar vein, a theoretical paper by Nash (1980) on the charactedstics of psi communication considers that, to be effective, psi communication must convey "meaningful information". Also, one of the Maimonides experimental participants, in a letter to Ullman and Krippner, gave her overall impressions of a dream telepathy series in which she had recently participated. She felt that the more "potent and unusual" the target material the better, because with subjects who might be subconsciously afraid of telepathy this kind of target might be less likely to be "kept out" (Ullman & Krippner, 1973). Perhaps unfortunately, it is very rare to find any published opinions from the experimental participants who play a crucial part in parapAp#WQqWW(wd6eJv*se 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 991 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : C ,JA-RDP96-00789F Wiliam Braud (1982-) questione the assumption @ our research - that psi Involves redundancy wit Instance, most of our experimentation' Involves p prints. Braud suggests that it would be useful if pc immediately evident to our other known senses. 1 concern the larger relationships in which a target F Similarly, Gertrude Schmeidler in her 1971 PA Pi ESP target is not the physical stimulus variables, an "Informational pattern" (Schmeidler, 1972). Bra test the theory of non-evident psi, where subjects boxes containing, respectively, three control object: one person's head. The hair samples were theref( control objects had no long-term association to a told which box was the "key" (one of the two bo) while remaining unaware of the contents of all tt remaining four boxes according to how "related" th( the key box. This study failed to achieve significc, idea worth further investigation. The 1986 Esalen Conference discussed techniqu use of psi abilities. Targ (1987) recommended tl elements in the "psychic appearance" of targets should compose a glossary of typical target transf same conference, suggested that experimenters c that are consistently successful, either because I described In a recognisable fashion. In other worc be defined operationally. @?&J %$@J%99 165 underlie muct our other known senses. madly visual targets such as provided information which is ich non-evident information cc irticipates, for example Its hist isidential Address stated that iut the "meaning" of the targe d conducted a pilot experimer vere confronted with five Ideni, and two samples of hair cut f e related to each other, while particular person. Subjects v is containing a hair sample) Cc ) boxes, were asked to rank r contents were to the content it results, but this may still be 5 to Improve the reliable prac it experimenters look for comt Le. In mentations), and that - -mation errors. Tart (1987), at iate a pool of "hot" targets - c ey are correctly described or , what makes a good target wt So far, this section has considered research pur ly within parapsychology. S( I I parapsychologists have taken a more Interdisciplil ary approach, however, and 1- ,@a'r related the findings from other areas of research b k to the question of what mc- c a good GESP target. Tart (1982) looked at how responses to targi psychophysiology, and asked what were the chai this field of research: what kind of stimuli are mo to analyse. To be successful, a target stimulus out from Its background. For targets In parap achieved by having the target stimulus occur sud( what Tart calls "psychic intensity" - the sense meaningful within the experimental context. Tart experimental participants on the significance of required meaningfulness. Psychic intensity co happening to an agent - a methodology which T,, good target should stand out from its surrounc psychological literature on human attention which I 252 Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-0078 s are measured In conventi ctedstics of a successful targ( readily responded to, and ea.. n psychophysiology should st ychological research, this may grily, be discrete In time, and 1- that the target Is Important ;uggests that we could Instruct the target In order to give It Id also reflect an intense e- I finds attractive. The Idea th ngs is strongly supported by Nill be introducing later. 3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 A second area of research which has had some heuristic value for parapsychological research concerns subliminal perception, or preconscious processing (Dixon, 1981). Comparisons of psi and subliminal perception have noted that "right hemisphere" processing facilitates subliminal perception (Roney-Dougal, 1981, 1986) - a suggestion which has also been made for psi perception (e.g. Braud, 1975). This could suggest that "right hemisphere targets" such as music, pictures and other non-analytic targets might be preferable to "left- hemisphere" targets such as words and numbers. Another parallel between psi and subliminal perception is that emotive stimuli can evoke clear autonomic responses In the percipient In both cases (IRoney-Dougal, 1986). Serena Floney-Dougal feels that the use of negative emotional targets is both morally and methodologically unsound, partly because some of her subjects reported unpleasant experiences while receiving target impressions and might psi-miss with this kind of target, and also because of the perceptual defence phenomenon seen in subliminal perception. Sondow, Braud & Barker (1981) considered that "defensive" subjects might be likely to psi-miss with unpleasant targets, and devised an "Openness Questionnaire" to identify such subjects. They found no significant difference between the "openness" of receivers who psi-hit and those who psi-missed In a ganzfeld study. Unfortunately, no extensive description is made of the format of the questionnaire, or of whether or not it measures perceptual defensiveness as seen In subliminal perception or some other, unspecified, form of defensiveness. In perceptual defence, a person may raise his or her recognition threshold for a threatening or unpleasant stimulus - In other words, they perceive it less clearly. Roney-Dougal Interprets this as being due to the person's desire or motivation not to perceive the threatening stimulus, a motivation which, she feels, may underlie psi-missing also. However, Dixon reports experiments which suggest that the perceptual defence effect, rather than representing the motivations of the experimental participant, Is best explained in physiological terms: emotive stimuli cause changes in a person's arousal level which in turn affect the sensitivity of the sensory receptors. Whatever the mechanism of the effect of emotional stimuli on recognition thresholds, it is clear that this effect is not uni-directional. One aspect of perceptual defence which, it seems, tends to be overlooked Is sometimes called vigilance. While some people 'may raise their recognition thresholds to emotional stimuli, others may actually lowerthern (Brown, 1961; Dixon, 1981). Without digressing too much on the reasons for this apparent contradiction, it has been found that there is a correlation between personality-type and a person's tendency to raise or lower his or her recognition threshold, with extroverts raising their thresholds, and Introverts lowering them (Brown, 1961; Corcoran, 1965). This has some interesting Implications for parapsychology. While Roney-Dougal felt that the raised recognition thresholds seen In perceptual defence might be linked with the psi-missing of her own subjects with negative emotional targets, other researchers have found the opposite (Delanoy, 1988), and the vigilance effect suggests that some parapsychological subjects could even psi-hit with unpleasant targets. Donn Byrne (1961, 1963, 1964) has developed a whalyffOC8166jq%OT@ht be M%3091C& -OUTU 253 ApprovNl?1b4"ekQaP@ AMY& or mechanisms of psi-hifting M0 personal communication, 1988). lists could stud- As scale (Cra Having looked at popular literature, spontaneous@ cases, and theoretical sugget from parapsychologists on what might make a good target, I will now make inferences from areas of psychology which I consloer to be relevant to this discu.e (1) EMOTIONAL RESPONSES TO STIMULI Mehrabian and Russell (1974) outli'ne a thei psychology (the study of the impact of the physli emotions, attitudes and behaviour). In their o, there are three basic emotional responses (plec, dominance-submissiveness dimension refers individuals feel they have over a situation or envi be used to describe adequately any emotional their impacts on these basic emotional dimensi components within or across sense modalities (e can be readily compared" (preface, Mehrablan & I There is evidence of considerable intermodality that is, stimulation in one sensory modality ma Instance, people who visualize auditory stimulatic names and mood adjectives with types of mu visualize exciting music in bright forms or sharp in rounder forms" ( p. 11, Mehrablan & Russell, responses to stimuli reported above (pleasure, C- providing a measure with which to compare pea stimuli. This is relevant because It suggests th our consideration of what might be expected to 1 Is not only the actual physical characteristics a response (a combination of pleasure, arousal anc in the percipient. Further, the theory may provide a methodologic; the impact of various target characteristics on ou personal communication, 1988). A semantic d people's emotional state in 'particular settings, emotions over time. Mehrabian and Russell's describing various aspects of pleasure, arousal are asked to mark on the scale the degree to * most accurately reflects their feelings. Semantic used in parapsychology, though for different pug et al (1970) used Osgood's Semantic Differential affective reactions to the same concept, though found no relation between the degree to which p target stimulus and their GESP scores with that Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789 etical approach to environn J and social environment on i ri words, "Evidence suggestt ure, arousal, and dominance P the degree of control, inment), combinations of whic ate (e.g. anxiety). By consic is, the effects of diverse sth . color, pitch, texture, temper issell, 1974, [my italics]). A human response to stimulc-- affect perception In another. i tend to agree In associating , Ic: "Such persons were fou ind angular figures, and slow 1974). The three basic emc ousal and dominance) are se ile's varied intermodal respon., I an additional Important asp 9 salient features of a GESP the target, but also the emc dominance) which that target J framework for the considerat r experimental participants (De Iferential scale Is used to me or to measure their charact scale comprises 18 adjective and dominance, and their su ich one or other of the adjectiv differential scales -have already ioses than suggested here. IV to find pairs of people with co: contrary to their expectations iople agreed In their reactions stimulus. Sondow, Braud & E 03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 ('1981) used Osgood,s Semantic Differential as one of several measures of target Picture emotionality. However, it should be possible to make more extensive use of the semantic differential, and it is planned to investigate further how a scale such as Mehrablan & Russell's could be adapted to measure the reactions of parapsychological subjects to targets and to provide a method to standardise descriptions of successful targets. The second aspect of Mehrabian and Russell's theory of environmental psychology which may be relevant to our discussion about targets is their consideration of how emotional reactions to physical environmental stimuli are related to the concept of approach-avoidance. This they define broadly as Including "... physical movement toward, or away from, an environment or stimulus, degree of attention, exploration.. -favourable attitudes such as ... preference or liking..." (p.96, Mehrablan & Russell, 1974). Arousal Is seen as a mediator of approach-avoidance behaviour. A literature review suggests that approach -avoidance is an Inverted-U-shaped function of arousal: an organism seeks an optimum level of arousal - whether or not it approaches or avoids a stimulus depends on how arousing the stimulus is, and extremely high or low levels of arousal are avoided. In animals, there Is a tendency to explore the unfamiliar. When the stimuli are fear-inducing, animals repeatedly withdraw and approach the stimuli. Mehrablan and Russell note that the animals are maintaining an optimum level of arousal with this behaviour. Similar behaviour Is seen in human children and adults (for references see Mehrabian & Russell, 1974; Berlyne, 1960). Anecdotally, humans do seem to have a penchant for voluntarily and repeatedly exposing themselves to negative ernotive and fear-inducing stimuli - hair-raising roller coaster rides and horror films, for example. The Idea of approach-avoidance being mediated by arousal relates to the consideration above (re perceptual defence and vigilance) of the merits of using negative emotive targets in parapsychology. It suggests that people might have sorne attraction to negative emotive targets insofar as these targets tend to increase arousal Too much arousal, however, will cause people to withdraw from an unpleasant target. On the other hand the use of neutral and bland GESP targets is unlikely to arouse our experimental participants at all, consequently failing to elicit approach. Of course, positive emotive targets would also be expected to influence the arousal of our subjects and to elicit approach -avoidance behaviour. A second area of psychological research which may make suggestions relevant to the question of what makes a good GESP target concerns the characteristics of stimuli which attract people's attention. (2) STUDIES OF ATTENTION While the theory discussed in the preceding section suggested that stimuli could be described in terms of people's basic emotional responses to them, other research has examined characteristics of the stimuli themselves, to see what stimulus features tend to attract .Por IMAU112AfRft" eVA*b&P4%-0@?89#@03fr9(R lr@004* on APAWV 255 ApproWMPI"E~OMffOSFo'P4r(PNIRIYP§BOWVsmkl;ggqevmdbip5reseEirch may relevant to the discussion here as it could suggest the kind of target features wt might attract the attention of our experimental pErcipients In free-response GE tasks. Berlyne (1970) noted the difficulty of even definng what is meant by the W "attention". In his series of experiments (described In Berlyne, 1960) on cudoE conflict and arousal he seems to use an operational definition. These experime typically presented the subject simultaneously with several stimuli and observed percipient's eye fixation movements - the inferenceteing that attention was giver the stimulus which attracted most eye fixation (e.g. Bedyne, 1958). Ot experiments used a different measure of attention, allowing subjects to exp( themselves to very brief sights of stimulus pictureS as many times as Jhey lika presumably attention was attracted by the stimuli wt ich were chosen to be seen m often by subjects. The characteristics of stimuli which seemed to influence direct of attention included: intensity; brightness; contrast colour; novelty; complexity; E incongruity. Intensity. Berlyne (1960) states that the inte frequency of nerve impulses and the number reticular arousal system. Generally, large sti stimuli; "warmw colours (e.g. red) are more colours (e.g. blue); high-frequency sound frequency sounds; and (in cats and monkeys followed by proprioceptive, auditory, and vis found that attention was attracted by relativell larger than to smaller circles; to brighter Intensity Is related to brightness, which also ar isity of stimulation Is seen In of fibers activated" (p.170) in null are more Intense than srr itense and arousing than "cc ; are more Intense than I painful stimuli are most Inten., ial stimuli respectively. Berly intense stimuli - for example, than to dimmer visual stiml pears to attract attention. Colour. Infants preferred looking at colou@ to looking at black and wh stimuli. Adults' attention was attracted more to a coloured stimulus than tc white one (Berlyne, 1960). 1 Contrast. It was found that attention was , black and medium grey backgrounds, and I background. So, contrast with the backgrour saw that brightness also attracts attention. stimuli which differed from. iheir background directions, It was found that subjects were mc stimulus - that Is, In the absence of a contr secondary determinant of attention (McDonnell Novelty. This can be defined as an unusuce objects, or a change from the kind of stim recently been exposed (Stotland & Canon, found that novel stimuli attract more attention Fiske, Taylor & Chanowitz, 1976; Berlyne, I declines over time (perhaps as the subject Iracted to a lighter stimulus i a darker stimulus on a wh I attracted attention. Above % When presenting subjects wl o equal extents but in differe e likely to respond to the light st difference, brightness was 1968). combination of parts of variat us to which the organism h,- 972). It has repeatedly berz ian familiar stimuli (e.g. Lange M), though the effect of noveh iabituates to the stimulus an Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-M89ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 arousal drops). Berlyne (1960) considers attention to be most effectively attracted by a stimulus whose novelty is often renewed. Novelty is related to change or surprisingness of a stimulus (Stotland & Canon, 1972). On surprise, Berlyne says "in experiments on learning, orienting behaviour (a set of psychological and physiological responses through which the organism "sits up and takes notidw, when an aspect of its environment changes) is often found to be strengthened by an unheralded change in experimental conditions" (p. 98, Berlyne, 1960, [my itallcsp. This observation strongly resembles one made from a parapsychological experiment by Roll & Harary (1972), that "some of the more interesting results came when unannounced changes in the experiment were made spontaneously", and similar results occurred "when there was a last-minute change in the target materials" (p.4). Complexity. This can be defined as the number of distinguishable parts which a stimulus possesses, the degree of difference among these parts, and the difficulty of integrating the parts Involved (Stotland & Canon, 1972). Incongruity, evidently related to both complexity and novelty, was found by Berlyne (1958) to attract attention. Under examination, the distinction between complexity and novelty grows blurred, and, as Stotland & Canon point out, both involve stimulus change. Humans seem compelled to attend to stimulus change - a response which might be expected to be evolutionarily adaptive. Infants are attracted to relatively complex visual patterns and the attention of adults is also determined partly by stimulus complexity (Berlyne, 1960; Jeffrey, 1968). This research on the determinants of selective attention also states that, consistent with the discussion earlier, of approach-avoidance behaviour, people seek an optimum level of arousal: either too much or too little arousal is unpleasant for individuals, and factors such as stimulus novelty, complexity, intensity and Incongruity are seen as contributing to an organismps arousal. The research outlined above tended to use fairly sterile tachistoscopic stimulus presentation, however more recent studies of human causal judgement in social Situations have shown that these early findings can generalise to much more realistic and complex situations. Shelley Taylor and Susan Fiske (1978), reviewing the literature,on the influence of salient stimuli on people's causal judgements, found that bright, contrasting, moving and novel stimuli all attract attention In social situations (e.g. Langer et. al., 1976; McArthur & Post, 1977). Movement can be regarded as simply another aspect of stimulus complexity/novelty, and we have already seen that stimulus change (a feature of movement) compels attention. As it is not yet clear whether the process of psi perception is similar to perception with our known senses it may be argued that the above findings from psychology on attention-grabbing stimulus characteristics may not generalise to the "psi stimulus". However, it would seem to be evolutionarily adaptive for any organism to attend to bright, contrasting, moving and novel stimuli as such features may indicate either food or threat to the organism. Insofar as psi perception may be an evolved attribute or Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 257 AppraMi#,Fw,eRebawoMl/ll3f67hCvIA-MM&OI stimulus features such as those outlined above. For parapsychologists, these findings suggest that: attract the attention of our experimental particl successful GESP targets may possess the followinj unspecified) degree or form: movement, complexit colour, brightness and intensity; and, 2. the characteristics must be present at moderate levels be overwhelmed, too little and they will be bored. SOME UMITATIONS OF THLS PAPER Although this paper may seem mainly been restricted to examined in any depth the 19atItWOU15 survival-relati 1. stimuli which are likely ants and consequently mai characteristics in some (as y novelty, Incongruity, contra: 3 attention-determining targ too much and our subjects Y to have rambled over] a wide range of subjects, It h, a consideration of targets Idea that "the target" Is In participant's own personal reactions to and interactio@ considered some ways in which the salience of a factors independent of the actual physical stimulus table summarizes their findings. Table 2 (after Taylor & Fiske, 1978) Determinants of Selective Attention physical features, and ha's n part defined by the experiment s with it. Taylor & Fliske (197 stimulus may be influenced haracteristics, and the followir Properties of Stimuli Brightness Contrast Movement Novelty Properties of Situation Environmental Cues Instructional Set Properties of Perceiver Temporary Need States Enduring Individual Differences In Traits, Rei ment Schedules, Schemas As Table 2 suggests, properties of a situation and influence what aspects of an Individual's environr appear as salient to any Individual. For Instance, If become especially salient to that Individual. An Ini play some part in determining the direction of his or roperties of the perceiver mc- nt, or a free-response targe person Is hungry then food w Fidual's cognitive schemata w. ar attention (Stotland & Canor Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-QB989RP03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 1972). If a person has a phobia of spiders, then a picture of a spider will be very salient to that person, while it may have no impact on.another person who has a phobia about water. if we as researchers instruct our experimental participants to attend to one aspect of their environment, then that feature will become salient to them. So, we see that there are many influences an what makes target characteristics grab attention, and it is unwise to restrict our view to physical target characteristics alone. Nevertheless, these conclusions about the salience of physical target characteristics remain valid so long as it is appreciated that they do not give the whole picture. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The present paper considered theoretical ideas of what might be expected to make a successful free-response GESP target. I. Popular literature on the training of psychic powers suggested that emotional Impact and human interest content made good targets. A survey of patterns seen in spontaneous cases seemed to support these observations: the bulk of the information transmitted concerned negative events related to humans, though reporting bias accounted for some of this pattern. While parapsychologists could not physically harm their subjects, It was suggested that the emotional Impact seen In spontaneous cases could be Incorporated into target material for experimental research, as observations from spontaneous cases suggested that such targets might be expected to have more success in an experimental setting than trivial or Impersonal targets. 2. Varied theoretical suggestions by parapsychologists on what might make a good target suggested that meaningful, emotional and potent targets could be expected to be successful in GESP research. Studies of characteristics of good targets In conventional psychophysiology suggested that targets in parapsychology should stand out from their background. This might be achieved by having the target event occur suddenly, be discrete in time and be "Important" to the percipient. Several parallels were noted between subliminal and psi perception. From perceptual defence and vigilance effects seen In subliminal perception it was suggested that, paradoxically, while some parapsychological subjects might be expected to psi-miss with negative emotional targets, others might psi-hit with such targets. It was suggested that the Repression-Sensitization Scale, diagnostic of an individual's tendency to be defensive or vigilant, might be useful to parapsychologists wishing to pursue these ideas. Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 0011 oool.5 259 Approved Fcg.RqW~rgggl~:~glc:hgl*EWN~Mioa~Mi*061DWiazget described. Firstly, from environmental p:;ychology greater attention should be given to the Ubject's target stimuli, and that, from the coinection approach-avoidance, the use of negative em)tive more likely to arouse our experimental parilcipants than neutral or bland stimuli. Secondly, attention was attracted by stimuli which contrasting, colourful, novel, complex ancl moderate levels. Similarly, social psych,)Iogy, realistic settings than attention research, found and novel stimuli attracted attention. 4. Some of the limitations of this paper we on physical target characteristics without c properties of the perceiver and the envirom stimuli would appear salient to any indiv presented here were valid In their relevar question given that this paper does nc exhaustive overview of the subject of targets We have seen that there Is some consistency In I training" literature, spontaneous cases, and para the likely characteristics of successful GESP te suggest that our targets should be psychologica 1. targets In parapsychological research shoul Impact and human Interest - this may make t ,experimental participants; 2. targets should alsi out from their backgrounds - properties such e Incongruity, brightness and contrast tend to make s question v@ it was suggested emotional response to between arousal stimuli could on the whol( and attract their after research on attention found were relatively Intense, br incongruous - though onl@ using more complex that bright, moving, contra', noted: there was a narrow fc isidering inevitable influence nt on what aspects of the tE jal. Nevertheless, the find to considerations of the tr-_ present a comprehensive parapsychological research. e suggestions of popular "psy sychologists' theoretical Idea" ets. These findings appep y salient and physically SoK be meaningful, have emot! em salient In the minds of be physically salient by stan @2 movement, novelty, comple. 1mull physically salient. Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-007#WR003100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100,110001-5 REFERENCES Berlyne, D.E. (1958) The influence of complexity and novelty in visual figures on orienting responses. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 55, 289-296. Berlyne, D.E. (1960) Conflict, Arousal, and Curiosity. McGraw-Hill, New York. Berlyne, D.E. (1970) Attention as a problem in behaviour theory. In D.I. Mostofsky (Ed.) Attention: Contemporary Theory and Analysis. Appleton-Century-Crofts, New York. Boswell, H.A. (1969) Master Guide to Psychism. Lancer, New York. Braud, W.G. (1975) Psi-conducive states. Journal of Communication, 25, 142-152. Braud, W.G. (1982) Nonevident psi. Parapsychology Review, 13, 16-18. Brown, W.P. (1961) Conceptions of perceptual defence. British Journal of Psychology Monograph, supplement no. 35. Burns, J. (1981) Your Innate Psychic Powers. Sphere, London. Byrne, D. ('1961) The repression-sensitization scale: rationale, reliability, and validity. Journal of Personality, 29, 335-349. 1 Bryne, D. (1963) Relation of the revised Repression-Sensitization Scale to measures of self-description. Psychological Reports, 13, 323-334. Byrne, D. (1964) Repression-Sensitization as a dimension of personality. In B.A. Maher (Ed) Progress in Experimental Personality Research, Volume 1, Academic Press, New York. Corcoran, D.W.J. (1965) Personality and the inverted-U relation. British Journal of Psychology, 56, 267-274. Crandall, J. Conversation held In Psychology Department, University of Edinburgh, spring 1988. Delanoy, D. Conversation held In Psychology Department, University of Edinburgh, spring 1988. Delanoy, D. (1988) Characteristics of successful free-response targets: experimental findings and observations. Paper submitted for presentation at the 1988 Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 lie It Approbed For Pty!eg_cM9pJ/0&0(@ enning, St. Paul, Minnesota. Dixon, N. (1981) Preconscious Processing. John Edwards, H. (no date) A Guide for the De Association of Great Britain, London. Jeffrey, W.E. (1968) The orienting reflex and Psychological Review, 75, 323-334. ftwers. Llewe & Sons, Chichester. of Mediumship. Spiritu n in cognitive developrr Langer, E.J., Fiske, S., Taylor, S.E. & Chanowitz@ B. (1976) Stigma, staring, discomfort: a novel-stimulus hypothesis. Journal d, Experimental Social Psychol 12, 451-463. Le Shan, L. (1977) The purpose of psi. Research, 49, 637-643. McArthur, LZ & Post, D.L. (1977) Figural emph of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 520-535. of the Society for Psyci s and person perception. JoL McBain, W.N., Fox, W., Kimura, S., N ka ' 1, M., and Tirado, J. (1! s Quasi-sensory communication: An InvesTgatnio using semantic matching n accentuated affect. Joumal of Personality and Sod Psychology, 14, 281-291. cl@ McDonnell, P. (1968) Effects of Intensity, contrast Iand novelty, on selective attet and free-choice reaction time. Unpublished doctoral thesis, Universlpf of Torc Cited In Berlyne, D.E. (1970) Attention as a p blem In behavior theory. In Mostofsky (Ed.) Attention: Contempora Theory and Anal. Appleton-Century-Crofts, New York. Mehrablan, A. & Russell, J.A. (1974) An Appro ch to Environmental Psychoi MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. e Morris, R.L. (1977) The Airport Project: A su y of the techniques for psy development advocated by popular books. In J. Morris, W.G. Roll & R.L. M i@- I (Eds) Research in Parapsychology 1976, Scarecro Press, Metuchen, N.J. Nash, C.B. (1980) Characteristics of psi com 11,17-22. Powell, 1. (1979) How to be More Psychic. Sph Roll, W.G. & Harary, K. (1976) Target responses report by G. Solfvin of 1976 SERPA Conference, f Roney-Dougal, S.M. (1981) The interface Parapsychology Review, 12, 12-18. Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789 262 Parapsychology Rev London. ring out-of-body experiences ipsychology Review, 7, 1-7. psi and subliminal percept, 03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Roney-Dougal, S.M. (1986) Subliminal and psi perception: a review of the literature. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 53, 405-434. Schmeidler, G. (1972) Respice, Adspice, Prospice. In W.G. Roll, R.L. Morris & J.D. Morris (Eds) Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association (1971), 8, Parapsychological Association, Durham, North Carolina. Schouten, S.A. (1 979a) Analysis of spontaneous cases. Research Letter, 9, Parapsychology Laboratory, University of Utrecht, 55-62. Schouten, S.A. (19796) Analysis of spontaneous cases as reported in 'Phantasms of the Living'. European Journal of Parapsychology, 2, 408-455. Schouten, S.A. (1982) Analysing spontaneous cases: a replication based on the Rhine collection. European Journal of Parapsychology, 4, 113-158. Schouten, S.A. (1986) A different approach for studying psi. In B. Shapin & L Coly (Eds) Current Trends in Psi Research (1984), Parapsychology Foundation, New York. Sherman, H. (1960) Know Your Own Mind Anthony, New York. Sondow, N., Braud, L. & Barker, P. (1981) Target qualities and affect measures in an exploratory psi ganzfeld. Proceedings, 24th Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association. Stotland, E. & Canon, L.K. (1972) Social Psychology.- A Cognitive Approach. W.B. Saunders, Philadelphia. Targ, R. (1987) 1986 Esalen Conference. Parapsychology Review, 18, 6-8. Tart, C.T. (1982) Physiological correlates of psi reception: some methodological considerations. In proceedings, PA & SPR Combined Jubilee and Centenary Conference. Tart, C.T. (1987) cited in Targ, R. 1986 Esalen Conference. parapsychology Review, 18, 6-8. Taylor, S.E. & Fiske, S.T. (1978) Salience, attention, and attribution: top of the head phenomena. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 11, 249-288. Ullman, M. & Kdppner, S. (1973) Dream Telepathy. Penguin, Baltimore. Williams, L.B. & Duke, M. (1979) Qualities of free-response targets and their relationship to psi performance. Proceedings, 22nd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association - Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 263 Approved For Release 2001103107 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 ADVANCES IN REMOTE-VIEWING ANALYSIS By EDwlN C. MAY, IESSICA M. UTTS, BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY, WANDA L W. I.UKk., TilANEJ. FRIVOLD. AND VIRGINIA V. 'I'RASK ABSTRACT: Fuzzy set technology is applied to the ongoing research question of how to automate the analysis of remote-viewing dats, Fuzzy sets were invented to describe, in a formal way, the subjectivity inherent in human reasoning. Applied to remote-viewing analysis, the technique involves a quantitative encoding of target and response material and provides a formal comparison. In this progress report, the accuracy of a response is defined as the percent of the intended target material that is described correctly. The reliability is defined as the percent of the response that was correCL The assessment of the remote-viewing quality is defined as the product of accuracy and reliability, called the figure of merit. The procedure is applied to a test set of six remote-viewing trials. A comparison of the figures of merit with the subjective assessments of 37 independent analysts shows good agreement. The fuzzy set technology is also used to provide a quantitative defini- tion of target orthogonality. Human analysts are commonly used to evaluate free-response data. Although diere are many variations, the basic idea is that an analyst, who is blind to the actual result, is presented with a re- sponse and a number of target possibilities, one of which is the in- tended target. The analyst's task is to decide what is the best re- sponse/target match, and frequently includes rank-ordering the targets from best to worst correspondence with the response. It is beyond the scope of this report to provide a critical review of the extensive literature on this topic. One aspect, however, of this type of evaluation is that analysts are required to make global judgments about the overall match be- twcen a complex target (e.g., a photograph of a natural scene) and an equally complex response (e.g., written words and drawings). In a recent book, Dawes (1988) has discussed various decision algo- rithms in general and the-difficulty with global techniques, such as those used in rank-order evaluation, in particular.' According to Dawes, the research results suggest that global decisions of this type are not as good as those based on smaller subelements that are later ' We are indebted to Professor D. Bem, Cornell University, for directing us to this valuable source of informadon. 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The mathematical i eme @rmaltwn underlying this procedure is known as the "figure of crit'IFM) analysis. This method is predicated or. descriptor list chno@.gy, which ;epresented a significant improvement over car- .r.cogfeptual analysis" techniques, both in terms of "objectifying" @e an;Rysis of RV data and in increasing the speed and efficiency ith w*h evaluation can be accomplished. Humphrey's technique, Itich %as based on the pioneering work of Honorton (1975) and exptsion by Jahn, Dunnc, and Jahn (1980), was to encode tar- @t ant response material in accordance with the presence or ab- mce q6specific elements. ,same increasingly evident, however, that this particular ap- It katioziof descriptor lists was inadequate in providing discrimina Ts ths0were "fine" enough to describe a complex target accurately, id ur4le to exploit fully the more subtle or abstract information nitenc-&f the RV response. To decrease the granularity of the RV laluatkn system, therefore, a new technology would have to allow 's ie arift a gradation ofjudgment about target and response fea- ires rter than the hard-edged (and rather imprecise) all-or-noth- ig binRy determinations. Requiring an analyst to restrict subjective idgmeut to single elements rather than to complete responses is ansistffit with the research reported by Dawes (1988). A Wliminary survey of various disciplines and their evaluation ietliog (spanning such diverse fields as artificial intelligence, lin- t1istic1pnd environmental psycholoqy) revealed a branch of math- rnatics,@bknown as "fuzzy set theory." Q (D UZZY S!!f Concepts Q FuZ5 set theory was chosen as the focal point of the RV analyt- -al tec&iques because it provides a mathematical framework for iodelia Situations that are inherently imprecise. Because it is such 11 important component in the analysis, a brief E11torial will be pre- ,nted&o highlight its major concepts. 'We wish to thank S. James P. Spottiswoode and D. Graff, CE. for directing us o the fuzzy set literature and for many helpful discussions. Membership 1.0 Aavances in Remoie- Viewing Analysis 197 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 eeo Population in 100 Thousands Figure 1. The fuzzy set "kind-of-small" cities. 0.01 0.0 15 000 30 In traditional set theory (i.e., crisp sets), an element either is or is not a member of a set. For example, the crisp set of cities with population equal to or greater than 1,000,000 includes New York City. but not San Francisco. This set would also not include a city with a population of 999,999. The problem is obvious. There i real difference between cities with populations of 1,000,0001'and 999,999, yet one is in the set and the other is not. Humans do not reason this way; therefore, something other than crisp sets is re- quired to capture the subjectivity inherent in RV analysis. Fuzzy set theory introduces the concept of degree of membership. Herein lies the essence of its applicability to the modeling of impre- cise concepts. For example, if we consider the size of a city, we might define certain fuzzy sets, such as VeTy small cities or kind-of-sm4it cities. Using kind-of-small cities as a fuzzy set example,.wc might sub- jectively assert that a city with a population of 100,000 is definitely such a city, but a city with a population of 400,000 is only a little bit like a kind-of-small city. As depicted in Figure 1, fuzzy set theor y al- lows us to assign a membership value between 0 and I that repre- sents our best subjective estimate as to how much each of the pos- sible city populations embodies the concept kind-of-small. In this example, a population of 700,000 assigned a membership value of 0.3. Clearly, a different set of membership values would be assigned to the populations for the fuzzy sets very small cities, medium cities, large cities, and ' so forth; a population of 100,000 might receive a value of 0.2 for very small cities, but a value for 1.0 for kind-of- small cities, depending on context, consensus, and the particular I > 0 (D CL -n 0 1 (D Q Q _L Q W C) 4 198 The journal of Parapsychology > 4lication. These membership values can be obtained through con- us opinion, a mathematical formula, or by several other nicans. @@(_Rssp sets are special cases of fuzzy sets, in which all membership V&es are either zero or one. By using membership values, we are a* to provide manipulatable numerical values for imprecise natu- rAlanguage expressions; in addition, we-are no longer forced into ri-p&ng inaccurate binary decisions such as, "is the city of San Fran- ciRo large-yes or no?" 'D In this example, the crisp set of all cities defines the universal set 01-lements (USE). The crisp set of cities with populations of one irtWion or more is a subset of USE. The fuzzy sets very small, kind- . AM.. all, medium, and large cities are fuzzy subsets of USE. oian 118veTsal Set of Elements a -4Since targets and the responses will be defined as fuzzy sets. we rrtWt specify a USE. The universal set of elements can be quite gen- e50 and include all aspects of a given target pool, or it can be tai- %d to a specific experiment to test a given concept (e.g., include geometric shapes). Since the method of fuzzy set analysis crit- 0 y igly depends on the choice of USE, we provide one example that %at derived from a target pool used in earlier experiments. What f9ows is only an example of how one might construct a USE. The we use is not generally applicable to other target pools or other 09 eaveriments. Xphotographs from the National Geographic magazine with ele- W n3ants obtained from the RV responses in earlier experiments. This ILIC55E is presented in Appendix A as the actual coding forms. For tit target features, we focused on direct visual elements. (In the general case, other perceptual dimensions can be considered.) In @18 case of the RV response-derived elements, an effort was made t(%'preserve the vocabulary used by the viewers. Some of the ele- rA&ts, therefore, are either response-dependent or target-depen- dent or both, whereas others, particularly at the more abstract lev- eIs, appear to be more universal across possible USEs. This universal set of elements is structured in levels, ranging from the relatively abstract, information poor (such as vertical lines), to the relatively complex, information rich (such as churches). The current system is sti-tictured into seven prim;irv and ihref- -;rron&ir,, Advances in R emote- Viewing Analysis 199 crete element assignments based on rather abstract commentar Y-n The use oflevels is advantageous ill that each element level call bc@ weighted separately and used or not, as the case may be. This ena-(D CL bles various combinations of levels to be deployed to identify the n optimal mix of concrete versus abstract elements. Of course, anyo such weighting scheme must be determined in advance of any ex3, periment. M The determination as to which elements belonged on which levelF was made after consideration of two primary factors: (1) the appar-in ent ability of the viewers to be able to resolve certain features, cou-M pled with (2) the amount of pure information thought to be con-o tained in any given element. Some of these "factor one"-, determinations were based on the combined anecdotal experienceo of analysts and monitors in the course of either analyzing or con-W 0 ducting numerous RV experiments; some were determined empir- 4 ically from post hoc analyses of viewers' abilities to perceive various, ' elements in previous experiments. 0 The "factor two" determinations were made primarily by arra > ng- I ing the elements such that an element at any given level represents;u 0 the sum of its constituent elements at lower levels. For example, a a port element (Level 7) could be considered to include canal (Level 6)0 0) and partially bounded expanse of wafer (Level 5). The world is not ab very crisp place and not all its elements are amenable to hierarchicalcD -4 structuring. Certain violations of the "factor two" rule appear 00 therefore, throughout the USE example. It should be noted, how'(D W eve by the "factor one" determinations (i.e., the viewers' abilities to dis-W cern certain elements) enumerated above. To emphasize once again, it is very important to-realize that this universal set of elements was constructed to match our particular" 0 special targets, viewers, and requirements. They are shown here to 0 0 illustrate the procedure. Any particular application of fuzzy set tech- & nology to the analysis of free-response material requires an a - riori 61 p construction of an individualized, and improved, USE specific to the target pool and the goals of the experiment. Target Fuzzy Sets Each target is defined as a fuzzy set constructed by assigning a I I I I I , . . --- 1, .14 A I& @ 4CLV4JAg nna4ysLs iW I nd, thus, were constrained to vary in steps of 0. 1. In addition, they iust represent the perceptual dimension used to construct the USE. n our example, membership values were assigned to each element @)r each of the targets, according to a consensus (on ;in element-by- lement basis) reached by three analysts. This approach was used to nitigatc the potential influence of any single 60der's biases and idio- yncr4es. A numerical assignment, 1L (0 -,4' ti, -- 1, in steps of 0.1), vas dMde for each element in response to the following question: iow aually important is this element to this photograph? < Emoded by this method, the fuzzy sets served as a formal defi- iition0of the targets for the analysis. It should be noted that our JSE dTfined targets in terms of visual importance! If other dimen- ions Re of interest (e.g., conceptual, functional, allegorical), the JSE 4uld have to be revised to incorporate them. In 3h actual experimental series, it is critical that the target fuzzy ets 4defined by analysts before the series begins. Because of the )otenghl information leakage owing to bias on the part of the ana- Yst, it@l an obvious mistake to attempt to define the target fuzzy set )n a tggeL-by-target basis in real tinie or post hoc. ?esponW Fuzzy SeLs a -4 Tor define RV response fuzzy sets, membership values tL are as iignedlaor each element in the USE by asking: To what degree am I (the@phalyst) convinced that this element is represented in this re ;ponsM.For example, if a response explicitly states "water," then the -nemblgship value for the water-element should be 1. If, however, .he r 4 onse is a rough sketch of what might be waves, then the V -nembdship value for the water-element might be only 0.3, depend- ng orghe specificity of the drawing. This definition of membership value ite general and can be used in most applications. tru In example, responses were coded according to this defini- ion (V still using the USE in Appendix A). The assigned @L's for he tairts and responses were one-digit fuzzy numbers on the in- erval;R,11 (e.g., 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, etc.). In some rare cases, two-digit issigni2ents (e.g., 0.05, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35, etc.) were made; any finer issigrilgents, however, were deemed to be meaningless. Thus, the .espomm was defined as its fuzzy subset of the USE. lmjWcd visual importance was ignored. For example. in a photograph of the ;rand CYnyon that did not show the Colorado River, water, river. and so on would @e scored as zero. By definition the target was only what was visible in the photo- ;raph. In an actual experimental series, each response fuzzy set is cre- ated by analysts who are blind to the intended target. Fuz- S. I Definition oir Pig-ure Merit Ui > Once the ftizzy sets that define the target and the response 11210t: been specified, the comparison between them to provide a figure-Rf merit (FM) is straightforward. In previous work (Humphrey et rget mat 41 1986), we have defined accuracy as the percent of the ta - ' eriol that was described correctly by a response. Likewise, we have 4 fined reliability (of the viewer) as the percent of the response th& was correct. The FM is the product of the two; to obtain a high F a response must be a comprehensive description of the target a5 be devoid of inaccuracies. The mathematical definitions for accurag and reliability for the jth target/response pair are as follows. Lft @Lk(Rj) and @Lkffj) be the membership values for the kth element% USE for the ith response and thejth target, respectively. Then tv accuracy and reliability for the ith response applied to thejth targa are given by: WminjjL*(Rj,tLA(T,)j -4 accuracy,, aij W,@L,(Tj) 0 > EWAminj[Lj,(Rj,@L,(T,)j I reliabilityii = rij X 0 E WjjLjRj _U A where the sum over k is called the sigma count in fuzzy set terrhinok) ogy, and is defined as the sum of the membership values. We ha-ICD allowed for the possibility of weighting the membership values wi %114 Is weights W, in order to examine various level/element contribtltior;g to the FM. The index, k, ranges over the entire USE. For the above calculation to be ineaningful, the tL's f8r'the taP, gets must be similar in meaning to the tL's for the responses. As V.0 noted above, in our definition of 'the membership values, this is n(R the case. The target tL's represent the visual importance of the el-' ment relative to the scene, and the response tL's represent the d gree to which an analyst@ is convinced that the element is repr&& sented in the response regardless of its relevance to that resporiseAn With advanced viewers it might be possible to change the defi- nition of the response 1L's to match the definition of the target @L's. In that case, the viewer must not only recognize that an element is 202 I'lieJournal vj Parapsychology > prevnt in the target, but must also provide information as to how V. su7gly important it is. This ability is currently beyond the skill of ItIiosQnovice viewers. Alternatively, we have opted to modify the tar- get &definition by using the fuzzy set technique of a-cuts. In out- cxatuRie, an a-cut is a way to set a threshold for visual importance. All arget elements possessing that threshold value or higher are cons;ered to be full members of the target set. In fuzzy set par- I lanco an CE-CUL C011MIS a fUZZY SCt to it Cl-'SI) o"C' "'lle "S 11"I tile -get set is now devoid of' detailed visual information: a poten- Iial i -!get element is either present or absent in the target set, re- ga I-( s of' its actual visual importance. Even with this cmiceptual chaiAml- in the target definition, the FM formalism described above ren-lims applicable, because a crisp set call be considered as a fuLzy set all membership values equal to 0 or 1. It is important to reco&tze that the a-cut is only applied to the target set; the re- spoq@ set remains fuzzy. 0 Ass&>nent of Quality of the Remote Viewing @U 10s difficult to arrive at a general assessment of how well a give') resjise matches a specified target. Tile ideal situation to obtain somPabsolute measure of goodness of match. Although the FNI is an froximation to this measure, it is impossible to assess the like- I of a particular FM value because it requires knowledge of the viewl's specific response bias for the session. It is possible to deter- ... - . . -1, 1 -_ -t- - - I_ is 019 useful on the average. For example, a viewer may love rock clim8ng and may spend most of his free time involved in that ac- tivitf?Thus, the general response bias would probably entail aspects of irmuntains, rocks, ropes, and so forth. Suppose, however, that the vlewcV spent the evening previous to a given RV session oil it ro- manjj moonlight sail on San Francisco Bay. For this specific RV sessi&, the response bias might include romantic iniages of tile moonlit water, lights of the city, and bridges. The current solution to the problem is to provide a relative as- sessment of FM likelihood. A relative assessment addresses tile fol- lowing question: "How good is the response matched against its in- tended target, when compared to all possible targets that could have been chosen for the session?" This is not ideal, since the answer de- Advances in Reitiote-View9tig Analysis 203 that the target pool consisted of 100 photographs of waterfalls, arid tile viewer gave a near-perfect description of a waterfall. (We ' ao sume that this description is not fortuitous.) An absolute assessme4l of the resulting FM should be good, whereas a relative assessmer% will be low. The worst-case scenario can be avoided, to a large d3 gree, by carefully selecting the target pool. (See tile later section -,;TU Quantitative Definition of Target Orthogonality.") M To provide it relafive assessment ofilic likelihood ofa giveil FIN5 we define the score for one session to be the number of targets, a out of a total, N. that have an FM equal to or higher than the FNP achieved by tile correct niatch."I'lie answer to the question: "Givev this response, what is the probability of selecting a target that woul(P. match as well as or better than the target selected?" is n1N. Consecutive RV responses by the same viewer are not statisticalig independent, nor can the responses be considered to be random i any sense. The statistically independent random element in the ses-' sion is the target. Since targets are selected with replacement, unde 0 the null hypothesis of no psi, the collection of scores derived over series of ni trials constitutes a set of independent random variable each with a discrete uniform distribution. Under the null hypothev 40 sis, the mean chance expectation for the score in each session W) given by (N + 1)/2 and the variance is given by (N 2 _ 1)/12. If 16 0 is the sum of scores from a series of remote viewings, then the probZ4 from th (@o ability of K, under the null hypothesis, can be obtained exact distribution for the sum of ranks given by Solfvin, Kelly p(K or less) ob In a - bN - I (IR b-0 (b)( M If m is large, then the suni-of-ranks distribution is approximately.0 normal and Khn has a mean of (N + 1)/2 and a varia'nce of6 (N 2 _ 0/127n. Thus, a z score call be computed from: z(K or less) K 0.5(N + I) - - M (2) @!l 2 -m Ground Truth Advatirrs in 205 sion from the Jth analyst be given by xj., To account for analysts' 131;ISCS, 111C X,., WCI-C 1101-111;kliLCII by I z traiislOrnialimi, To Xj.* - determine whether the new analytical approach was effective, a Zj, k= I standard had to be developed against which.it could be measured. It 01) was determined that this standard-known as "ground truth"- shoulm where @L, and u, are the mean and standard deviation consist of the jtli an- TL of a "real-world" normalized consensus about the de- V_ CD greecDf alyst's distance scores, xj.k. The effect of this transformation correspondence is to CD between RV responses and their intended convert an analyst's absolute subjective opinion to targ(~. a relative one. For a Ir- 1i the Jth analyst, the largest zj., indicates that the achieve degree of corre- T.- this objective, we presented analysts (chosen from the CD geneal spondence for responseltarget k is higher than any other SRI pair in the staff) with the same test case of six remote-viewing re- spontes series. It does not indicate overall quality. This type and of transforma- their associated targets. The test case was the data from I CD viewer tion was necessary since we wished to combine the assessments (177) CD taken from from an experimental series in a 1986 a sin phot a number of different analysts. ultiplier tube experiment (Hubbard, May, & Frivold, 1987). The To combine the assessments across analysts, we computed aesponses the CO (i.e., two to five pages of rudimentary drawings with som mean z score for each response/target pair, k, as: r- 00 CD ssociated descriptive words) were fairly typical of novice q-a views CD output 6 and represented a broad range of response quality. The C Abrgets ZA zj consisted A" of six photographs of outdoor scenes selected fronb% . National N. J- I Geographic magazine target pool of 200. Thus, this data St where N. is the number of analysts. The number of analysts was as W ideally w suited for an analysis testbed. Appendix B con- tainsl(he N "best" determined by the data. For the best response/target and pair (i.e., ses- "worst" trials (Sessions 9005 and 9004, respec- tivellfrom sion 9005, k = 5) we computed the percent change of this z, for every series in the form of their responses, their intended targ&l, additional analyst. When the addition of two new analysts and produced their fuzzy set encodings (see the next section). I@A.Lh analyst consecutive changes of less than 2%, the process was was considered CD asked individually for his subjective judgment aboupthe complete. For this data set, 37 analysts were required degree before this M of correspondence between the remote-viewing re- " degree CD of condition was met. Figure 2 shows the normalized mean cor- for each sponas and their respective intended targets. The respodence" target/response pair, and represents a relative assessment was of remote- CD purposely undefined; the analysts had to formu- late CD eir viewing quality. These means constitute the basis for own the groun C'4 criteria. The only information provided was that & respoises truth against which the fuzzy set technique was measured. typically We re- (D begin with small bits of information and even- tuallculminate in a composite drawing at the end. U) C Appendix C cognize that this definition of ground truth is based on global deci- Ca " " contagground truth. a) a hs the coding form that was used to obtain sions and may not be most optimal (Dawes, 1988). ) 7 E-#h a; analyst was instructed to examine all of the responses and theirWitcnded Results of the Fuzzy Set Analysis targets. Then, on it session-by-session basis, lie was asked6 0 (1) to assess the degree of correspondence between the rern(=-viewing LL response To effect a meaningful comparison between ground truth and and -0 its intended target, and (2) to register this a) imirrespondence the figure of merit analysis, we also analyzed the same assessment RV series > by making a vertical hash mark " from "none" to "com acros@a 10-cm scale ran in lete . 0 p that served as the ground truth set by'the fuzzy set g figure of merit " g C '172 perform the ground truth analysis, distance measurements L were&ken from the left end point of each scale to method. The fuzzy set mem the vertical slash bership values (IL's) for the six targets CL mark4or each assessment. Let the distance obtained and six responses were consensus coded by five analysts for the kth ses- ranging < from expert. to novice. A typical spread of ti. assignments was :t 0. 1 with an occasional oudier. com ..e or the elet-tients were vigorously de- bated until a consensus was reached. Accuracies, reliabilities, and 201) W) CD CD CD VII qrl CD Q CO 1.5 1 lie.1 ounial oi rarapsycliotogy Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis 207 LO TABLE I -IL Q Fuzzi, SF.-r QUANTITIFS FOR "GROUM) Titirrji" SF.Rm% CD Figure of Session Accuracy Reliability illerit Rank C 900 1 .317 .484 .153 80 9002 .273 .477 .130 103 @@I a -0.5 Z a) 00 I,,- CD CD (6 -1.51 a) CL S,_.&sion Number in W -espollse pair. Fi4e 2. Normali-ted Ille,111 for C-.Wli I;trgctll 5 figtw4res o merit were calculated for each target/response pair (I'able IQ@ should be noted that the encoding was a post hoc exercise, but be;4use the assignment for each element in the USE had to be de- I*eQed before a consensus was reached. tile FMs shown in Table I CoetitUte reasonable estimates of' their "blind" equivalents. Appen- diol shows tile target and response elements that were scored I .roIll diu,&pniversal set (see Appendix A) for Sessions 9004 and 9005. As an%xample of the fuzzy calculation, Appendix B also shows the re- (D Z I- W 0.500 -uZZY 0 LL Ground Vulh M 0.375 > U 0 1- 2 0- a CL Z < _@t_Xjl -,AKI2 %K13 %104 91jJ15 9006 9004 .212 .379 .080 142 9005 .573 .594 .340 3 9006 .298 .555 .165 13 rank CD CD .403 ct) .515 .155 W .713 00 .015 [* CD .068 CD suits of the target a-cut, the fuzzy intersection, and the accuraW, reliability, and figure of merit for Session 9005. Table I also shcQs the absolute and relative ranks from a target pool of 200. To de&@_ mine the absolute rank for each session, we calculated figures%f ineriL For all 200 targets in the pool and placed them in numeripi order from the largest to tile smallest. The absolute rank is just tjl@ position (from the top) of the FM corresponding to the intendRi target. Ties were resolved by choosing the next larger integer ra& number to the centroid of the ties. The fractional rank number C'*M be considered a p value for an individual session and is equal to & absolute rank/200. Using Equation 1, the overall p value for t% combined six trials is .052 (N = 200, K = 372, m = 6). Using tPW approximation (Equation 2), we compute z = 1.633, p -- .05, ID demonstrate that for six trials, the approximation in reasonable. MU completeness, we compute the effect size (r = 0.67). W To compare the results of the fuzzy set analysis with those of tli@ ground truth, we linearly renormalized the ground truth figures 16 be within the interval [0,11 and to possess the same maximum an 9 minimum. As can be seen from Figure 3, the results from the fuz2jt set analysis system parallel those obtained by a consensus of the'A analysts each making a subjective assessment of the matches,. CL CL These results imply that the combination of (1) the structure of the USE'(i.e., the linguistic hierarchical structure), (2) the fuzzy set mathematics, and (3) a consensus approach to assessing the fuzzy sets themselves provided a reasonable representation of the subjec tive SLoring of the same data by a large number of individuals. 0 A Quantitative Definition of Target Orthogonality Session Number ganzfeld often use target packets, with the unselected targets in a packet serving as decoys Forjudging. Assigning poiential iargels lo packets would be easier with some measure of target orthogonality. Target definition for the purposes of this mode of analysis is ex actly the same as the one described (i.e., a given target is defined by its fuzzy subset of the USE, which has been coded to reflect tile vis ual i!2portancc of each target element). The average number of ele T_ mermla of the total of 131, that was assigned a nonzero value for the targ@ in our pool of 200 was approximately 37, indicating that the fuzz@:set representation of the target pool is rich in visual infor matiM. We used this information to determine the degree to which Q the k*rget set contains visually similar targets. lgis beyond the scope of this paper to describe the extensive w r in the literature seeking to find algorithmic techniques that ? @ miwW,@ human assessments of visual similarity. One recent article de scrilm techniques similar to tile one we used (Zick, Carlstein, & Bit Ks des,'O 1987). le begin by defining the simlarity between target i and targetj to bra normalized fuzzy set intersection between the two target sets: )2 FW,minji.LjTj).ILh(Tj)j 0 S - ( A 2 W"tLJT_32_MILk(T,) Q wheft the index k ranges over the entire USE. We have allowed for Q the;Possibility of weighting the membership values with weights W, to gamine various level/element contributions to the target similar- itie6v N targets, there are N(N- 1)/2 unique values (19,900 for N 0* The values i and j that correspond to the largest value to; of S of represent the two targets that "look" nicist similar. Suppose a ler target m is chosen and S,j and Sj are computed. If both of the values are larger than S... (for all n not equal to i or J), then t targgt .m is assessed to be most similar to the pair @. The process of grouping targets based on these similarities is called cluster analysis. L9 ped into 19 clusters, 1`40ing this process, 200 targets were grou suce that the targets are similar within a cluster, and dissimilar be tw clusters. Table 2 provides an overview of the 19 clusters 1&, foij4@d from the total analysis of the 200 targets. Some of the names appear to be quite similar, but, in fact, these sets arc visually quite Zqij,^ A chnwe rho graphir output of a single cluster in TABLE 2 NAMES 01, 19 CLUSFERS No. Name No. Name I Flat [owns I Cities with I prominent geometries 2 Waterfalls 12 Snowy mountains 3 Mountain towns W) 13 Valleys with L rivers 4 Cities with prominent14 Meandering rivers-1 structure Q 5 Cities on water 15 Alpine scenes Q Q 6 Desert/water interfaces16 Outposts in snowy mountains 7 Deserts 17 Islands Q 8 Dry ruins 18 Verdant ruins Q 9 Towns on water 19 Agricultural scenes 10Outposts on water Q Q 00 dctail. A much inore coniplex-and visually difficult to undet- stand-graph is generated for the full cluster analysis and is na included here; this smaller subset, therefore, has been chosen to h4 illustrative of the whole analysis. All targets in this particular sampR cluster are islands; the island in each photograph is visible in its ep tirety. Except for one outlier (i.e.. a hexagonal building covering A island), [lie islands fall into two main groups (i.e., with and withol Target 1xxx Linear 1198 Number Q Geometries (C-g-. 1138 CIO Runways) Q 1128 112 8 1186 T_ Q 1 @ @ Many Structures1179 Q (e.g.. C*4 Town) a) 77 1177 Ruins - - - - - - - U) - - - 1083- - M 1 (1) 1-1.11 : 7 Antl V4:rLl;jjjj1 a) 11 40 Sand Bars 1088 1161 0 U Mountains 1049::Yl _ 1038 1 Hcxagonal > Building Covering island ------- 1003 0 L_ 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 CL 0 . CL I - Sij < rigure 4.. Pluster analysis of island targets. The journal of Parapsychology 210 in maqpade elements). The natural islands include three similar 1110LB@ain islands, two sandbars, and two flat verdant islands. losing cluster analysis in conjunction with fuzzy set analysis pro vid "-for a quantitative definition of sets of targets that are similar eb to e$!h other within a cluster, but visually different across clusters. Ortiggonal clusters can be used to provide visual decoy targets for RecPmendallons and Conclusions Q apply the analysis in its present form to a long RV series is qui I b d, from the results show" ill 1-igure 3. is ,01 a or intensive an n ikely not justified since this fuzzy set technique approximates liunwn assessment. As we stated in the introduction. however, we are 4@oviding only a progress report of ongoing research. Because of tFj decision concepts described in Dawes (1988) and the obvious benefits of an automated evaluation system, the effort to improve %Yhtwas described in this paper is certainly justified. The proce- dur8can be used "as is" to improve and quantify target orthogo- Iveral future research areas are suggested to improve the tech- niqRs described in this paper. The use of both inter- and intra-level weib*ting factors needs to be examined systematically. In the analy- sis &scribed above, all levels and elements were accorded equal weift. The ideal goal would be to determine the optimal weighted miyWf abstract versus concrete elements, as a means to achieving the &Ilowing objectives: 0 Refinement of the cluster analysis for targets, in an effort to simulate, as closely as possible, what is meant by "visual simi- > larities" between targets. 0 Refinement of the analysis of responses, in an effort to < achieve even greater correlations between the fuzzy set figure of merit analysis and various forms of ground truth. Another area that requires examination in some detail is the USE and the hierarchical nature of its structure. it is probable that some elements are more appropriate than others; furthermore, they might be more effectively structured in a semantic network as op- Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis 2 JA cal relationships governing the membership values ([L's) of high -CILD order elements (e.g., port) vis-A-vis the combined value of their cok2- stituent parts (e-g., city, river, boats, jetties, commercial). T_ .. One inadequacy of the system is that it . T_ atomizes conceptus units." For example, if the response element is red box, informaticlo is lost in separating red from box. Current research in fuzzy sesettslidw 9 zzy aggregates o uzzy e ements-"fuzzy fuzzy sets"-are mathematically complex but possible. Some effo@ should be made to determine whether this technology could be int5- plemented as a means to capturing the information content of thl@? RV response with greater accuracy. For the visual analysis, research into visual similarities betwee(L pictures of natural scenes may serve as a potential refinement too 2 The aim here would be to enhance the visual orthogonality of rank-- order analysis decoy targets as much as possible. Experiments i< normal perception of similarities would assist in determininp whether scenes are perceived as similar because of their low-level- geometries, concrete elements, or some combination of factors. Th@ ultimate aim would be to refine the target cluster analysis such th4D it closely simulates ground truth representations of orthogonality. Q Q C*4 (D U) M APPENDix A a) 77D CODING FORMS FOR THE UNIVERSAL SET OF ELEMENTS The following coding forms illustrate the use of a universal set of elementso (USE) that matched our particular special targets. viewers, and requiremenisL.L We constructed our USE by including a list of features present in photographF]) from the National Geographic with elements obtained from the remote-> 0 viewing responses in earlier experiments. CL Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 CONCRETE DESCRIPTOR LEVELS I Exp*Mw= T"m R-WJrWW Coder Vlew*r LEVELSINGLE STRUCTURES SUBSTRUMPES 3= pw@ 10 - chmm (mm reopma wkwvv. P600cm ccb@ ftkft". is= f.wv. V=k& V@jj Imm If= ft@ 17= mch -w-w M= mum CONCRETE 11 Exp@rWnwM DESCRIPTOR LEVELS Walk RespiTarg: Cod*r Vlew*r LEVELSETTLEMENT ELEVATIONLANDIWATER NO AUDIENCE/ WATER OR VEGETATIONFuMcnom INTERFACE VEGETATION It part marm" amm n I V= mowwww n= Ind nr--l wim- = 36 31 n*w 36 31= Oxampkift IF gLww 31= LobE 34 CaMW (chwwwd. = ripw 131 43c= w mr9e expw@ C30 WOW hNs 4 980 t~ of 1 bLm. hLmTqm.cat Os" WzvcMd wobw 44 = "KwrKwm PC: PwKQ , opq,-, '.' w M! w (b AV) 7-1 Approved r&RMM 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 001 1-0 bo 1-0 two 10. 91 t-A ppro% z d 01 -5 For Release 20011103/0X6sWR?&W931?WP01 100 ExpetimerW. Trial: Resp.frarg: Coder: Viewer QUALITIES LEVELCOLOR OTHER IMPLIED IMPLIED IMPLIED VISUAL TEXTURE TEMPERATURE MOVEMENTAMBIENCE yefty, IS hot so coroggsted Ickiftma. " I 82 11= (g.WdI III= Ka7v (tn@i-. Ice) go 0ense. Imm V ko . 93 red wnpbw 96fe-0 Ipswe 0, hklml rnovenwvt W= unmorned. rbowl w ary (-,O@ ur Y4 r0cwy 11099ad re d 0 I,0PPWI WN&0 ck)" nj9W fasufftchotmcl PIMPke obwwod (ka7y.. N= 000nfsow"A Old vul .0fiV%I1IIII dwn. smokyj . gr= b-- cINW ItOM 96 ordWed (abgrwdl tb"p) W*Ml ckswoorgo WimbW F-1 = U"Kywol Wick is Old a= Whft W" W ro= ARCHETYPES STRUCTURE ELEVATIONINTERFACE ONIOUENESS AMBIENCE i i - nn Nofmw @01"dgfk Wau ;:j@e (or cepr, @ W" as POW "ams) IN = Ior OW901 W= flat bowd@s odd (or surpr - 'os pixtamn-on W? = naual of !3nd@a, ewflwnts Mre.ace lam sky @Iemxs Irxxvioni ABSTRACT DESCRIPTO.R LEV5 :LS 11 Experiment. Trial: Resp.frorg: Coder Viewer: zz" App 2-0 & 3-0 GEOMETRIES LEVEL RECTILINEARCURVILINEARMIXED Inneaut.Aa REPEAT FORMS ORMS FORMS FORMS FORMS MOTIF cyWidw III Itil C ropea lot no 4.". spiwoul 1 113 (IF111*201d, pyrwnldl 0"WIm oft son": hn6w. qW ) . igncq I -D GEOMETRY we (am" 130 curve in W"D iorm tropwo "rftdhneo h..A hn. d 2001/03/07 CIA--RDP-96-00789ROO3100110001-5 @,iavances in tiemote- Viewing Analym 217 APPENDIX B Fuzzy SET ANAi.ysis TF-s*rBEI) Tb5 following pages show the targets, responses, and analysis for two remote-viewing trials. CD CD CD CD CD Q CD M 00 Q CD (6 Am 4v j..' T OLA CD CD CD Q CD CD 00 CD CD M CL C) I- CD m Figure B2. Page one of the response (Session 9004, Target 1094) CD Figuro 1. Target for Session 9004. U) co (I) 77D W L- 0 LL > 0- CL CL 'r- CD CD C*4 (I) U) 77D 0 LL > 0 CL 218 The journal of Parapsychology Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis 219 LO -IL 14 CD CD CO CD CD L D ce@ C') Figae B3. Page two of the response (Session 9004, Target 1094). 77D 0 LL 0 CL CL LO -IL CD CD CD ftt A& CD CD 17 C*4 U) M (D 77D A_ 0 LL CL CL @;Zs% ON Figure B4. Page three of the response (Session 9004, Target 1094). 354 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEE Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 "Parapsychology: Fiction or reality?"641 -, "The paranormal-P. Questions of Philosophy, 11: Mechanisms ar,@d vat. 9, pp. 128-136, 1973. Information Corp., New York. 1974. [461 R. Cavanna, Ed., Proc. Int. Conf. (651B. Julesz, Foundations Methodology in PSr Research. of Cyclopean Perceptic New York: Parapsychology Foundation, Univ. Chicago Press, 197 1970. 1. (471 E. D. Dean, "Plethysmograph recordings661 H. Puthoff and R. Targ, as ESP responses," Int. in Psychic Exploration J. Neuropsychiatry, vat. 2, Sept. Science, J. White, Ed. 1966. New York: Putnam, 197, (48 C. Tart, "Physiological correlates (671G. Feinberg, "Precognition J of psi cognition," Mr. J. Para- -A memory of th psychol., no. 4, 1963. Proc. Conf. Quantum Physics and Parapsyc. (491 D. H. Lloyd, "Objective events in Switzerland). New York- the brain correlating with Parapsychology Foun psychic phenomena," New Horizons, 1681E. P. Wigner, "The problem vat. 1, no. 2, Summer 197 3. of measurement,' [501 1. Silverman and M. S. Buchsbaum, vat. 3 1, no. 1, p. 6, "Perceptual correlates of con. 1963. sciousness; A conceptual model and (6911. J. Freedman and J. its technical implications for F. Clauser, "Experimer psi research," in Psi Favorable hidden variable theories," States of Consciousness, R. Ca. Phys. Rev. Lett., vo vanna, Ed. New York: Parapsychology 938, Apr. 3, 1972. Foundation, pp. 143- 169, 1970. 1701 1511J. Kamiya, "Comment to Silverman and Buchsbaum," ibid., pp. 158-159. 521D. Hill and G. Parr, Electroencephalography.711 A Symposium on Its Various Aspects. New York: Macmillan, 1963. [5 T. D. Duane and T. Behrendt, "Extrasensory 3 electroencephalo- J graphic induction between identical72) twins," Science, vat. i5o, p.367,196S. [541K. Osis, ASPR Newsletter, no. 14, 731 1972. 5,5R. L. Morris, "An exact method for 1 evaluating preferentially matched free-response material," 74 J. Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., ] vat. 66, p. 40 1, Oct. 1972. [S61G. R. Schmeidler, "PK effects upon continuously recorded tem- peratures," J. Amer. Soc. Psychical(751 Res., vat. 67, no. 4, Oct. 1973. [571W. Scherer, "Spontaneity as a factor761 in ESP," 4 Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., vat. 12, pp. 12 6-147, 1948. [531R. Targ, P. Cole, and H. Puthoff, "Techniques to enhance man/ machine communication," SRI, Menlo Park, CA, Final Rep., NASA Contract NAS7-100, June 1974. 771 591R. Ornstein, The Nature of Human Consciousness. San Fran- cisco, CA: Freeman, 1973, ch. 7 and 8. 601R. W. Sperry, "Cerebral organization and behavior," Science, vat. 133, pp. 1749-1757, 1961. (781 16110. Bilaniuk and E. C. G. Sudarshan, "Particles beyond the light- 6arrier," Phys. Today, vat. 22, [ May 5, 1969. 791 1621W. Pauli and C. G. Jung, Eds., 77te Interpretation of Nature and the Psyche (Bollingen Set. LI). [801 Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press, 19 5 S. 631M. A. Persinger, "ELF waves and (811 ESP," New Horizons Trans. Toronto Socteryfor Psychical Research, vat. 1, no. 5, Jan. 1975. J. F. Clauser and M. A. Horne, "Experimental objective local theories," Phys. Rev. D, vat. I( July 15, 1974. D. Bohm and B. Hiley, "On the intuitive under locality as implied by quantum theory" (B London, England), Feb. 1974, Preprint. 1. S. Bell, "On the problem of hidden variaL theory," Rev. Mod. Phys., vat. 38, no. 3, p. 447, H. Stapp, "Theory of reality," Lawrence-Beri LBL-3837, Univ. California, Berkeley, Apr. 1975, A. Einstein, B. Podolsky, and N. Rosen, "Can qu cal description of physical reality be considered c Rev., vat. 47, p. 777, May 15, 193S. R. H. Dicke and J. P. Wittke, Introduction to Qt Ics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1960, ch. 7. E. H. Walker, "Foundations of paraphysical and cal phenomena," in Proc. Conf. Quantum X psychology (Geneva, Switzerland). New York: Foundation, 1975. 0. Costa de Beauregard, "Time symmetry and i quantum mechanics," Lecture delivered at Bostc Philosophy of Science (Feb. 1974), Foundatiot press). J. A. Stratton, Electromagnetic 77teory. New Hill, 1941. A. Sinkov, Elementary Cryptanalysis-A Mathemf New York: Random House, 1968. P. Hoel, Introduction to Mathematical Statistic York: Wiley, 1954, p. 27. R. Taetzsch, "Design of a psi communications Parapsychol., vat. 4, no. 1, p. 3S, Winter 1962. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 PU@HOFF Avlyrb,~-ftdEFw6riqewiNomUlffi3fW~~R-RDF%BR-00789ROO3100110001-5 353 Usually at some places there should 18,1974. be a building, large or [5)D. D. Home, Lignts nd Shadows of k at the end or the sides Spiritualism. New York: small that the court d i L b oo G. W. Carleton, 1877. yar s a out. ofthecourtyard. Is there anything to [6)J. Coover, Experiments in Psychical be seen? Research. Palo Alto, CA: I have a sense that there are buildings. Stanford Univ. Pr@ss, 917. It's not solid build- [71G. Estabrooks,BuU. oston Society for Psychical Research, 1927. ings. I mean there are some around See also [ 12, pp. 18 -19 1. the periphery and I have a sense that none of them are very tall.[8]L. T. Troland, Technques for the Maybe mostly one story, Experimental Study of Telep- athy and Other A liege I Clairvoyant maybe an occasional two story one Processes. Albany,NY, 1928. d Y k F . (913rrar an : or J. B. Rhine, New Frc nders of the Mind. New Do you have any better idea of what Rinehart, 1937. your square was that you saw at the outset? (101J. Pratt and J. B. R ine et al., Extra-Sensory Perception after Sixty Years. New Yc rk: Henry Holt, 1940. No. I could hazard different kinds [111C. Scott, "G. Spen.-er Brown and of guesses. probability: A critique," Does it seem part of this scene? J. Soc. Psychical Res. vol. 39, pp. 217-234, 1958. It ... I think it could be [121G. R. Price, "Scienct and the supernatural," It could almost be a bulletin board Science, Vol. 122, . pp.359-367,195S. or something with notices on it maybe.[131-, "Apology to Rhine and Soul," Science, vol. 175, p. 359, Or something that people are expected 1972. to look at. Maybe a " " [1411. window with thin 1. B. Rhine, le were expected to look at A ne case of experimenter unreliability, s in it th eo t . Parapsychol., vol. 38, pp. 215-225, a June 1974. g p p What kind of trees do you see in this (151S. G. Soul and F. Bi teman, Modern place? Experiments in Telepathy. I don't know what kind they are. The London, England: Fa)er and Faber, impression was that 1953. ' 1161C Scott and P. Ha ikell, "'Normal be 12 feet of explanation of the Soal- the ' were " Ma de t h bi ibl d t s Narure, Vol. a G rees an oldney experiments in extra-sensory no perception, terr g. y y y trunk and then a certain amount of 245, pp. 52-S4, Sept. 7, 1973. branches above that. So that the branches have maybe a 12 foot[171C. E. M. Hansel, @ESP-A Scientific diameter, or some- Evaluation. New York: Scribner, 1966. thing. Not real big trees. [181J. B. Rhine and J. C. Pratt, "A review of the Pearce-Pratt dis- New trees rather than old trees? tance series of ESP ti sts," J. Parapsychol., Vol. 18, pp. 165-177. 1954. Yeah, maybe 5 or 10 years old, but [1911. G. Pratt and J. L. M oodruff, not real old ones. "Size of stimulus symbols in extra- Is there anything interesting about sensory perception," T. Parapsychol., the pavement? vol. 3, pp. 121-158, 1939. No. It seems to be not terribly new [201S.G.SoalandH.T. owden, The Mind or terribly old. Not Readers: Recent Experi- mentsin Telepathy. New Haven, CT: very interesting. There seems to be ['211Yale Univ. Press, 19S4. some bits of landscaping C. Honorton, "Error some placel" J. Commun., val. 25, no. 1 around. Little patches of grass around (Annenberg School ol Commun.), the edges and periph- Winter 197S. eries. Maybe some flowers. But [221M. RyzI, "Training t ie psi faculty not lush. by hypnosis," 1. Amer. Soc. , PsychicalRes., vol. 41, pp. 234-2SI, 1962. You saw some benches. Doyou want to [231CIBA Foundation Svmposium on Extra tell me about them? Sensory Perception. Well, that's my unsure feeling about Boston, MA: Little, B own, 1956. this fountain. There 1241M. RyzI and J. Pratt "A repeated-calling it felt ESP test with scaled was some kind of bench Curved benches t f es o cards," A ParapsychoL, vol. 27, cemen pp. 161-174, 1963. . , like. 1251-, "A further confurnation of stabilized ESP performance in a They were of rough cement selected subject," J. Pirapsychol., vol. 27, pp. 73-83, 1963. ' . 1261ESP sub- J. Pratt, "Preliminar) experiments with a 'borrowed What do you think Hal is doing while ject," J. Amer. Soc. Aychical Res., he is there? Vol. 42, pp. 333-345, 1964. 1 have a sense that he is looking at (271J. Pratt and J. Blo , "A confirmatory things trying to project experiment with 'bor- T iP subject," J. Amer. Soc. Psychical them. Looking at different things and Res., sort of walking back rowed outstanding E vol. 42. pp. 381-388, 1964. and forth not covering a whole lot (281W. G. Roll and J. G. Pratt, "An of territory. ESP test with aluminum targets," Sometimes standing still while he looks 1. Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., vol. around. 62, pp. 381-387,1968. 1291J. Pratt, "A decade cf research and I almost sense with a selected ESP subject: An I just had the impression of him talking " k i d P l , ew an overv ave Stepane reappraisal of the work with , that it was being recorded or something. Proc. Amer. Soc. ical Res., vol. I don't know if he 30, 1973. then he is saying some- 1301C. Shannon and W. Weaver, The Mathematical has a tape recorder, but if it's not Theory of Com- that , munication. Urbana, IL: Univ. Illinois Press, 1949. thing because it needed to be remembered.[311M. Ryzl, "A mode for parapsychological It's 11:33. He's communicution," just probably getting ready to come J. ParaPsYchol., vol. 3 D, pp. back. 18-31, Mar. 1966. (321C. Tart, "Card guess ng tests: Learning paradigm or extinction paradigmt" J. Amer. @ oc. Psychical Res., vol. 60, p. 46,1966. ACKNOWLEDGMENT (33)M. Ullman and S. Kri pner, with A. Vaughan, Dream Telepathy. New York: Macmittla 1973. The authors wish to thank the principal[341" 4 subjects, Mrs. Hella "St si activation C Honorton in f t t f . ac ors a e o awareness , . p Hammid, Pat Price, and Ingo Swann, Amer. Soc. Psychical, Zes., vol. who showed patience and 68, pp. 246-2 57, 1974. forbearance in addition to their enthusiasm[351Proc. 2nd Int. Co r. Psychotronic *and outstanding Research (Monte Carlo). Cotati, CA: Int. Asso, . Psychotronic; perceptual abilities. We note with (361Res., 1975. sadness the death of one Of L. L. V83iliev, Expe iments in Mental Suggestion. Hampshire, our subjects, Mr. Price. We express England: ISMI Publ.. @ 963. our -sincere thanks also to Earle Jones, Bonnar Cox 13711'M. Kogan, "Is telel athy possible?" and Dr. Arthur Hastings, of SRI, and Radio Eng., vol. 2 1, p. 7 5, , Jan. 1966. Mrs. Judith Skutch and Richard Bach, (381-, "Telepathy, hyp aheses and observations," without whose en- Radio Eng., vol. couragement and support this work could 22, p. 14 1, Jan. 1967 not have taken place. [391-, "Information th ory analysis of telepathic communication " experiments, Radio ., vol. 23, p. 122, Mar. 1968. @,ng 1401-, "The informatio theory aspect of telepathy," RAND Publ., REFERENCES Santa Monica, CA, p. 145, July 1969. (411A. S. Presman, Elec magnetic Fields and Life. New York: (1) 1. R. Smythies, Ed., Science and Plenum, 1970. ESP. London, England: Rout- ledge, 1967. [421Y. A. Kholodov, Ed., influence of Magnetic Fields on Biological I 121 C. Evans, "Parapsychology -What Objects, JPRS 63038, the questionnaire revealed," NTIS, Springfield, VA, Sept. 24, 1974. New Scientist, Jan. 25, 1973, p. 209. 1431Y. A. Kholodoy, "In estigation of the direct effect of magnetic (31 A. Gauld, T7te Founders of Psychical fields on the central MOW system," Research. New York: in Proc. Ist Conf. Psycho- Schocken Books, 1968. See also W. Crookes, tronic Res., JPRS L/s 22-1 and Researches in the 2, Sept. 6, 1974. Phenomena ofSPIritualLsm. London, England:1441D. Mennie, "Consurner electronics." J. Burns, 1874. IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 12, - (4) R Ta R 0rowdFoocRelease PiU i)?89R 031001N001-5 OPRAQ 9 5 tions o ct. N I I . Lomov, and A. R. Luria, p W., P.- nchenko, A. , Leontiev, hsory shielding," Nature, vol. 2 B. nc 352 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 1.0 E U 0.8 > '3't; 0.6 ca .0 0 a 0.4 >- E- t: CM _J @c -S 0.2 E (D Z cr- -0 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IE CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Fig. 19. Reliability curve for sequential sampling procedure (po 0.4, P, = 0.6. a = 0.01, p = 0.01). the upper or the lower limit line is reached, at which point a decision is made to accept 0 or I as the bit being transmitted. Channel reliability (probability of correctly determining message being transmitted) as a function of operative psi parameter 1P is plotted in Fig. 19. As observed, the sequential sampling procedure can result in 90 percent or greater reliability with psi parameters on the order of a few percent. Implementation of the sequential sampling procedure re- quires the transmission of a message coded in binary digits. Therefore, the target space must consist of dichotomous ele- ments such as the white and green cards used in the experi- ments by Ryzl. In operation, a sequence corresponding to the target bit (0 or 1) is sent and the cumulative entries are made (Fig. 18) untu a decision is reached to accept either a I or a 0 as the bit being transmitted. At a prearranged time, the next sequence is begun and continues as above until the entire message has been received. A useful alternative, which relieves the percipient of the burden of being aware of his self-contradiction from trial to trial, consists of cycling through the entire message repeti- tively and entering each response on its associated graph until a decision has been reached on all message bits. The authors have used this technique successfully in a pilot study, but a discussion of this would take us beyond the intended scope of this paper. From the results obtained in such experiments, the channel bit rate can be ascertained for the system configuration under consideration. Furthermore, bit rates for 6ther degrees of reliability (i.e., for other po, p 1, ct, and 0) can be estimated by construction of other decision curves over the same data base and thus provide a measure of the bit rate per degree of reliability. In summary, the procedures described here can provide for a specification of the characteristics of a remote-sensing channel under well-defined conditions. These procedures also provide for a determination of the feasibility of such a channel for particular applications. APPEN D I x B REMOTE-VIEWING TRANSCRIPT Following is the unedited transcript of the first experiment with an SRI volunteer (S6), a mathematician in the computer science Uborapry- with n6lyftol@eeriAce teb9lo"gRoDllftyibot-,df.,cribed Approved por elease [A-ftnom-L viewing. The target, determined by random White's Plaza, a plaza with fountain at Sta: (shown in Fig. 8). As is our standard protc menter with the subject is kept ignorant of UL visited as well as the contents of the target p menter's statements and questions are italics. Today is Monday, October 7th. It is 11: OC mote viewing experiment with Russ Targ, Phyl Puthoff. In this experiment Hal will drive i chosen bY a random process. Phyllis Cole wi. viewer, and Russ Targ is the monitor. We ex, ment to start at twenty minutes after eleven teen minutes. It is just about twenty minutes after eleven be at his target location by now. Why don't you tell me what kind of pictu what you think he might be doing or experienc, The first thing that came to mind was some square kind of a shape. Like Hal was in front ... not a building or something, it was a squarc if it was a window, but something like that so line of it was not at the ground. About where least. That's what it seemed to me. It seems how. Tree. Does Hal seem to be looking at that square? I don't know. The first impression was that have a sense that whatever it was was somet. look at. I don't know if it would be a sign, but one might look at. Can you tell if it is on the ground or vertical? It seemed vertical. I don't have a sense that it was part of anyt- it might be on a building or part of a buildi- know. There was a tree outside, but I also got of cement. I don't have the impression of ver or traffic either. I have the sense that he is - back and forth. I don't have any more explic that. Can you move into where he is standing and he is looking at? I picked up he was touching something-sor Maybe warm and rough. Something possibly lik It is twenty-four minutes after eleven. Can you change your point of view and m scene so you can get a bigger picture of what's 0 I still see some trees and some sort of pave: thing like that. Might be a courtyard. The thin mind was it might be one of the plazas at Stanf something like that, cement. Some kinds of landscaping. I said Stanford campus when I started to see White Plaza, but I think that is misleading. I have the sense that he's not moving arou That it's in a small area. I guess I'll go ahead and say it, but I'm afraid F on my impressions from Stanford campus. I hc sion of a fountain. There are two in the plaza, that Hal was possibly near the, what they call Me: What is that? It's a fountain that looks rather like a claw. sculpture. And it has benches around it made of Are there any buildings at t#e place you are lot a kind of +0.4 +0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 vP (psi parameter) q)A-M?A§a00789R003100110001-5 PUTHOFF 3SI TABLE X 5-BIT CODE FOR ALPHANUMERIC CHARACTERS E OODOOy 01000 11111G,J 10111 N 00001W 01001 R 11110 V 10110 00010B 01010 0 111010 10101 000111 01011 S,X,Z111002 10100 D 001003 01100 H 11011 4 10011 L 001015 otiol CXQ 110106 10010 F 001107 011LO P 11001 8 10001 U 00111 9 01111 M 11000 10000 Note: Alphabet characters listed in order of decreasing frequency in English text. See, for example, A. Sinkov [79]. (The low-fre- quency letters, X, Z, K, Q, and J, have been grouped with similar chara 'cters to provide space for numerics in a'5-bit code.) In consideration of the uneven dis- tribution of letter frequencies in English text, this code is chosen such that 0 and I have equal probability. F- Le) z Lu z Lu L=' C:)' Q Lu F- v) < 2 Lu 0 LL < 0 @2 cc LLJ Lu 2 Lu Z 0 cc LU < > F- =1 50 40 DECISION I 30 Accept "I"las 1 the Bit B66 20 -I)ECISION Continue nue ission ss'..@ DECISION 2 Accept "0" as the Sit Being Transmitted 0 10 20 130 40 50 60 70 80 NUMBER OF TRIALS Fig. 18. Enhancement of procedure (po The question to be transmission, a given Ing po commensurate with tion is a "0," or at a I hypothesis HI that the decision-making proces parameters. kal-to-noise ratio by sequential sampling p, =0.6,a=0.01,0=0.O1). tddressed is whether, after repeated ;sage bit is labeled a " 1 " at a low rate he hypothesis Ho that the bit in ques- igher rate p, commensurate with the bit in question is indeed a "l." The requires the specification of four po The probability o4 labeling incorrectly a "0" message bit dundancy. One efficient coding scheme as a "I." The bability of labeling for such a channel is pr@ correctly a "0" as obtained by application of a sequentiala "0" is p = ipb = 0.6. Therefore, sampling procedure of O.S +1 the probability the type used in production-line qualityof labeling incorre@tly a "O"asa "I"is control [80]. The I - p=0.4=po. adaptation of such a procedure to paranormalp t The probabilitylabeling correctly communication of a "I" message bit channels, which we now discuss, was as a " I," is y p, = 0,5 + @b = 0.6. considered first by given b Taetzsch [ 8 11. The sequential methodci The probabilityrejecting a correct gives a rule of proce- or identification for dure for making one of three possible a "0" (Type I ). We shall take a decisions following the error = 0.01. receipt of each bit: accept I as the The @fobability bit being transmitted; reject of accepting an incorrect identification I as the bit being transmitted (i.e., fora. I" (Type accept 0); or continue II error). Weshalltakeo=0.01. transmission of the bit under consideration. The sequential sampling procedure differs from fixed-lengthWith the parameters coding in that t@us specified, the sequential sampling the number of bits required to reach procedure provides a final decision on a for construction of a decision graph as message bit is not fixed before transmission,shown in Fig. but depends on 18. The +ations for the upper and lower limit the results accumulated with each transmission.lines are The principal advantage of the sequential sampling procedure as compared =dI +SN with the other methods is that, on the average, fewer bits per final decision are required for an equivalent degree of 0 =-do + SN reliability. Use of the sequential sampling procedure requires the speci- where fication of parameters that are determined on the basis of the following considerations. Assume that 1 - a a message bit (0 or 1) is being transmitted log i log - In the absence of a priori knowledge,Ct i we may assume equal probability (p = 0.5)d, for the two possibili- do ties (0,I). Therefore, from the standpointI - 1 70 of the receiver, the log P I log pf PO probability of correctly identifying Po I - I PI Po the bit being transmitted is p I P = 0.5 because of chance alone. An operative remote-sensing channel could then be expected to after the probability of - PO correct identification to a value p log = 0.5 + 41, where the param- eter iP satisfies 0 < 1411 < 0.5. (TheI - p, quantity may be positive S1_ or negative depending on whether the pt I -po paranornial channel results in so-called psi-hitting or log psi-missing.) Good psi func- PO 1-pi tioning on a repetitive task has been observed to result in 0.12, as repQrted b R erefore hp C th a tr' Is, I O and d and " 6 @ f b & @k d 0 q ft * O ( o _ terr UU design prodMpr e qjCU I a a nl@ e )-Iixig M10 Ai 6 rd of receiver- An*tM @b = 0. 1 and design a communication generated responses system on this basis. to t@e target bit is compiled until either i 3SO PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEE Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 The reader has doubtless noted that the choice of the function f(I - r1c) is highly arbitrary, since the field equation admits also a solution At + r1c). This function leads obviously to an advanced time, implying that the field can be observed before it has been generated by the source. The familiar chain of cause and effect is thus reversed and this alternative solution might be discarded as logically inconceivable. However, the application of "logical" causality principles offers very insecure footing in matters such as these and we shall do better to restrict the theory to rewded actjoh solely on the grounds that this solution alone conforms to the present physical data. Such caution is justified by the example in the early 1920's of Dirac's development of the mathematical description of the relativistic electron that also yielded a pair of solutions, one of which was discarded as inapplicable until the discovery of the positron in 1932. In an analysis by 0. Costa de Beauregard, an argument is put forward that advanced potentials constitute a convergence toward "finality" in a manner symmetrical to the divergence of retarded potentials as a result of causality (771. Such phenomena are generally unobservable, however, on the gross macroscopic scale for statistical reasons. This is codified in the thermodynamic concept that for an isolated system entropy (disorder) on the average increases. It is just this requirement of isolation, however, that has been weakened by the observer problem in quantum theory, and 0. Costa de Beauregard argues that the finality principle is maximally operative in just those situations where the intrusion of consciousness as an ordering phenomenon results in a significant local reversal of entropy increase. At this point, further discussion of the subtleties of such considerations, though apropos, would take us far afield, so we simply note that such advanced waves, if detected, could in certain cases constitute a carripr of information precognitive to the event. The above arguments are not intended to indicate that the precise nature of the information channel coupling remote events and human perception is understood. Rather, we in- tend to show only that modem theory is not without resources that can he brought to bear on the problems at hand, and we expect that these problems will, with further work, continue to yield to analysis and specification. Furthermore, independent of the mechanisms that may be involved in remote sensing, observation of the phenomenon implies the existence of an information channel in the information-theoretic sense. Since such channels are amenable to analysis on the basis of communication theory techniques, as indicated earlier, channel characteristics such as bit rate can be determined independent of a well-defined physical channel model in the sense that thermodynamic concepts can be ap- plied to the analysis of systems independent of underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, as we *have seen from the work of Ryz1 discussed in Section II, it is possible to use such a channel for error-free transmission of information if redundancy coding is used. (See also Appendix A.) Therefore, experimentation involving the collection of data under specified conditions per- mits headway to be made despite the formidable work that needs to be done to clarify the underlying bases of the phenomena. V1. CONCLUSION bilities. The primary achievement of this prc the elicitation of high-quality "remote viewii of both experienced subjects and inexperier. to view, by means of innate mental processc graphical or technical targets such as roads, laboratory apparatus. Our accumulated data experiments with more than a half-dozen st; the following. a) The phenomenon is not a sei of distance over a range of several kilometers. L shielding does not appear to degrade the quality perception. c) Most of the correct informatio relate is of a nonanalytic nature pertaining t color, and material rather than to function o aspect suggests a hypothesis that informatio under conditions of sensory shielding may be marily by the brain's right hemisphere.) d) difference between experienced subjects and volunteers is not that the latter never exhibit t- rather that their results are simply less reliable. tion suggests the hypothesis that remote viev latent and widely distributed, though repress ability.) Although the precise nature of the informatio pling remote events and human perception is stood, certain concepts in information the, theory, and neuro6hysiological research appear t on the issue. As a result, the working assump: searchers in the field is that the phenomenon consistent with modern scientific thought, and be expected to yield to the scientific method. recognized that communication theory provi techniques, such as the use of redundancy codi signal-to-noise ratio, which can be employed to i purp(?p application of the remote-sensing channc of an understanding of the underlying mechanis fore consider it important to continue data col- encourage others to do likewise; investigations reported here need replication and extension ur variety of rigorously controlled conditions as pos APPENDix A SIGNAL ENHANCEMENT IN A PARANOI COMMUNICATION CHANNEL By APPLIC. OF REDUNDANCY CODING Independent of the mechanisms that may b remote sensing, observation of the phenomeno. existence of an information channel in the theoretic sense. As we have seen from the work cussed in Section 11,6 it is even possible to use s channel for error-free transmission of inform ficient redundancy coding is used (301, [311. 1 general procedure that we have used successfu enhancement. We shall assume that the "message" consists o binary digits (0,I) of equal probability (e.g., b- green/white cards as in RyzI's case, English text c Table X and sent long distance by strobe light oi on). To combat channel noise, each binary dig through the channel requires the addition of redi compromise (coding). Efficient coding requires a For the past three years we have had a program in the Elec- tronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of SRI to investigate desire to maximize reliability and the desire to those facets of human perception that appear to fall outside 6 See also the note added in proof on the succemful ApptVVEReff efrvR*lt*3to2OO4M"7c7CMeROFtWO07-89ROO3100110001-5 PUniOFF ANAp4wovf~OcFqcRqWaAeLMldD=7A-tCIARRQP&6-00789ROO3100110001-5 349 the corresponding target locations. A long-range experimental program devoted to the clarification of these issues and involv- ing a number of subjects is under way. The above four experi- ments are the first four carried out under this program. Currently, we have no precise model of this spatial and tem- poral remote-viewing phenomenon. However, models of the universe involving higher order synchronicity or correlation have been proposed by the physicist Pauli and the psychologist Carl Jung [ 62 1. ACAUSALITY. If natural laws were an absolute truth, then of course there could not possibly be any processes that deviate from it. But since causalitys is a statistical truth, it holds good only on average and thus leaves room for exceptions which must somehow be experienceable, that is to say, real. I try to regard synchronistic events as acausal exceptions of this kind. They prove to be relatively independent of space and time; they rela- tivize space and time insofar as space presents in principle no ob- stacle to their passage and the sequence of events in time is in- verted so that it looks as if an event which has not yet occurred were causing a perception in the present. We shall see in the next section that such a description, though poetic, has some basis in modern physical theory. V. DISCUSSION It is important to note at the outset that many contempo- rary physicists are of the view that the phenomena that we have been discussing are not at all inconsistent with the framework of physics as currently understood. In this emerg- ing view, the often-held belief that observations of this type are incompatible with known laws in principle is erroneous, such a concept being based on the naive realism prevalent before the development of modem quantum theory and information theory. One hypothesis, put forward by 1. M. Kogan of the., USSR, is that information transfer under conditions of iensory shielding is mediated by extremely low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic waves in the 300-1000-km region (371- [401. Experimental support for the hypothesis is claimed on the basis of slower than inverse square attenuation, com- patible with source-percipient distances lying in the induc- tion field range as opposed to the radiation field range; ob- served low bit rates (0.005-0.1 bit/s) compatible with the information carrying capacity of ELF waves; apparent ineffec- tiveness of ordinary electromagnetic shielding as an attenuator; and standard antenna calculations entailing biologically gener- ated currents yielding results compatible with observed signal- to-noise ratios. M. Persinger, Psychophysiology Laboratory, @aurentian Uni- versity, Toronto, Canada, has narrowed the ELF hypothesis to the suggestion that the 7.8-Hz "Shumann waves" and their harmonics propagating along the eirth-ionosphere waveguide duct may be responsible. Such an hypothesis is compatible with driving by brain-wave currents and leads to certain other hypotheses such as asymmetry between east-west and west- east propagation, preferred experimental times (midnight-4 A.M.), and expected negative correlation between success and the U index (a measure of geomagnetic disturbance throughout the world). Persinger claims initial support for these factors on the basis of a literature search (631, [64]. , On the negative side with regard to a straightforward ELF interpretation as a blanket hypothesis are the following: a) ap- $As usually uAppmved For Release 2001/03/07 parent real-time descriptio@s of remote activities in sufficient detail to require a channe@ capacity in all probability greater than that allowed by a conventional modulation of an ELF signal; b) lack of a propos d mechanism for coding and decod- ing the information onto @ pe proposed ELF carrier; and c) ap parent precognition data. he hypothesis must nonetheless re T main open at this stage ofresearch, since it is conceivable that count erindication a) may @ventually be circumvented on the basis that the apparent hig@ bit rate results from a mixture of low bit rate input and high bit rate "filling in the blanks" from imagination; counterindication. b) is common to a number of normal perceptual tasks and may therefore simply reflect a lack of sophistication on ;ur part with regard to perceptual functioning, [651; and cointerinclication c) may be accom- modated by an ELF hypc thesis if advanced waves as well as retarded waves are admitted (661, (67]. Experimentation'to determine whether the EL 4" hypothesis is viable can be carried out by the use of ELF sources as targets, by the study of para- metric dependence on pr pagational directions and diumal timing, and by the explor Mon of interference effects caused by creation of a high-inte asity ELF environment during ex- perimentation, ail of which are under consideration in our lab- oratory and elsewhere. Some physicists believe that the reconciliation of observed paranormal functioning wii h modern theory may take place at a more fundamental level-namely, at the level of the founda- tions of quantum theory. There is a continuing dialog, for example, on the proper ini erpretation of the effect of an ob- server (consciousness) on experimental measurement [681, and there is considerable urrent interest in the implications for our notions of orderir g in time and space brought on by the observation [691, [70 of nonlocal correlation or "quan- tum interconnectedness" (1 o use Bohm's term [711) of distant parts of quantum system, of macroscopic dimensions. The latter, Ben's theorem (72 . emphasizes that "no theory of reality compatible with quantum theory can require spatially nts to be in ependent" [731, but must permit separated eve interconnectedness of distlInt events in a manner that is con- trary to ordinary experience (741-[75]. This prediction has been experimentally tested and confirmed in the recent experiments of, for example, Freedman and Clauser [691, (701. 1 E. H. Walker and 0. C 3sta de Beauregard, independently proposing theories of para iormal functioning based on quan- tum concepts, argue that o )server effects open the door to the possibility of nontrivial cc upling between consciousness and the environment and that the nonlocality principle permits such coupling to transcendi spatial and temporal barriers [ 7 6 (771. Apparent "time reversibility"-that is, effects (e.g., observa- tions) apparently preceding causes (e.g., events)-though con- ceptually difficult at first l lance, may be the easiest of appar- ent paranormal phenomena to assimilate within the current theoretical structure of otr world view. In addition to the familiar retarded potential solutions f(t - r1c), it is well known that the equations of, for example, the electromagnetic field admit of advanced potentia I solutions f(t + r/c) -solutions that would appear to imply a -eversal of cause and effect. Such solutions are convention discarded as not corresponding to any observable physical e@ nt. One is cautioned, however, by statements such as that of i1tratton in his basic text on electro- GlAcROPMOM89RO03100110001-5 348 OF THE IE1 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110059""' Fig. IS. Subject (S4) described a formal garden "very well manicured" behind a double colonnade. Note that the subject has learned not to rush into interpreta- tion as to the nature or purpose of the place. This is a result of our cautioning based on the observation that such efforts tend to be purely analytical and in our experience are almost invariably incorrect. If a subject can limit himself to what he sees, he is often then able to describe a scene with sufficient accuiacy that an observer can perform the analysis for him and identify the place. The second target visited was the fountain at one end of a large formal garden at Stanford University Hospital (Fig. 15). The subject gave a lengthy description of a formal garden be- hind a wall with a "double colonnade" and "very well mani- cured." When we later took the subject to the location, she was herself taken aback to find the double colonnaded wall leading into the garden just as described. The third target was a children's swing at a small park 4.6 km from the laboratory (Fig. 16). The subject repeated again and again that the main focus of attention at the site was a "black iron triangle that the outbound experimenter had somehow walked into or was standing on." The triangle was "bigger than a man," and she heard a "squeak, squeak, about once a second," which we observe is a match to the black metal swing that did squeak. The final target was the Palo Alto City Hall ( subject described a very, very tall structure "Tiffany-like glass." She had it located among c with little cubes at the base. The building is glas the little cubes are a good match to the small buildings located in the plaza in front of the built To obtain a numerical evaluation of the accur,- cognitive viewing, the experimental results weri independent judging on a blind basis by three who were not otherwise associated with the exp judges were asked to match the four locationf visited, against the unedited typed manuscripts recorded narratives, along with the drawings gen remote viewer. The 'transcripts were presented i in random order and were to be used without re, correct match required that the transcript of a ment be matched with the target of that experimt judges independently matched the target data tc data without error. Under the null hypothesis (n( channel and a random selection of description: placement), each judge independently obtained a cant at p - (4 !)-1 = 0.042. For reasons we do not as yet understand, the fo, generated in the precognition experiment show ex herence and accuracy as evidenced by the fact tl judges were able to match successfully all of the i Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Fig. 16. Subject (S4) saw a "black iron triangle that I walked into" and heard a "squeak, squeak, about onc Fig. 17. Subject (S4) described a very tall structure loc streets and covered with "Tiffany-like glas. ADDroved For Release 2001/03/07 - ffA@IR -00789ROO3100110001-5 PUT'HOFF ANO TARG. PERCEPTUAL CHANNEL FOR INFORNIX R RPS PEk 347 IV. CONSIDERATIONS CONCERNING TIME TABLE IX If the authors may be forgiven a personalExPERIMENTAL note, we wish to PROTO OL: PRECOGNITivE REMOTE VIEWING express that this section deals with Time i observations that we have @xperimenter/Subject Activity been reluctant to publish because of Schedule their striking apparent in- compatibility with existing concepts. 10:00 Outbound experimenter Leaves The motivating factor with 10 envelopes (containing for presenting the data at this time target locatLons) and random is the ethical consideration number generator; that theorists endeavoring to develop begins half-hour drive models for paranormal 10:10 Experimenters remaining with functioning should be apprised of all subject in the laboratory the observable data if *Licit from subject a descriptia of where outbound their efforts to arrive at a comprehensive experimenter wil Ibe from 10:45-11:00 and correct descrip- tion are to be successful. 10:25 Subject response completed, at which time laboratory part During the course of the experimentation of experiment is over in remote viewing subjects occasionally volunteered the 10:30 Outbound experi enter obtains informa- random number from a random (Section 111) d l , ops, an number generato , counts down to associated enve tion that they had been thinking about proceeds to tar at location their forthcoming par- indicated ticipation in a remote-viewing experiment 10:45 Outbound experi nter remains and had an image at target location for come to them as to what the target 1 15 minutes (10: 5-11:00) location was to be. On these occasions, the information was given only to the experi- menter remaining at SRI with the subject4T and was unknown to the outbound experimenter until completion of the experi- ment. Two of these contributions were among the most accurate descriptions turned in during those experiments. S 1 h ,, th m d e w en Since the target location had not yet been selecte subject communicated his perceptions about the target, we found the data difficult to contend with. We offer these spontaneous occurrences not as proof of pre- V cognitive perception, but rather ai the motivation that led us to do further work in this field. On the basis of this firsthand evidence, together with the copious literature describing years of precognition experiments carried out in various other labo ratories, we decided to determine whether a subject could per- form a perceptual task that required Fig. both spatial and temporal 14. Subject Hammid (S 14) described "some kind of congealing tar, remote viewing. or maybe an area of cond@nsed lava that his oozed out to fill up It is well known and recently has beensome widely discussed that kindof boundaries." I nothing in the fundamental laws of i physics forbids the appar- ent transmission of information from ated the future to the present a random digit from 0 to 9 with a Texas Instruments (discussed further in Section V). Furthermore,SR-51 there is a gen- random number generator; while still in motion, he eral dictum that "in physical law, counted everything that is not forbid- down that number of envelopes and proceeded di- den, is required" (611. With this in rectly mind, we set out to con- to the target location so as to arrive there by 10:45. He duct very well-controlled experiments remained to determine whether at the target site until 11:00, at which time he re- we could deliberately design and executeturned experiments for the to the laboratory, showed his chosen target name to a sole purpose of observing precognitionsecurity under laboratory guard, and entered the experimental room. conditions. During the same perio 1, the protocol in the laboratory was The experimental protocol was identicalas to that followed in follows. At 10: 10, th, -. subject was asked to begin a descrip- previous remote-viewing experiments tion with but one exception. of the place to WIN h the experimenter would go 35 min The exception was that the subject hence. was required to describe The subject then generated a tape_recorded description the remote location during a 15-min and period beginning 20 min associated drawings from 10:10 to 10:25, at which time before the target was selected and her 35 min before the outbound part in the experim,-nt was ended. Her description was experimenter was to arrive at the targetthus location. entirely concluded 5 min before the beginning of the tar- In detail, as shown in Table IX, each get day at ten o'clock one selection proc of the experimenters would leave *SRI Four with a stack of ten such experiments were carried out. Each of them ap- sealed envelopes from a larger pool peared and randomized daily, con- to be successful, an evaluation later verified in blind taining traveling instructions that judging had been prepared, but that without error by three judges. We will briefly sum- were unknown to the two experimenters marize remaining with the the four experiments below. subject. The subject for this experimentThe was Hella Hammid first target, the Palo Alto Yacht Harbor, consisted en- (S4) who participated in the nine-experimenttirely series replicating of mud flats becat se of an extremely low tide (see Fig. the original Price work described earlier.14). The traveling experi- Appropriately, the entire transcript of the subject per- menter was to drive continuously from tained 10:00 until 10:30 be- to "some kind o' congealing tar, or maybe an area of fore selecting his destination with condensed a random number generator. lava. It lool s like the whole area is covered with (The motivation for continuous motion some was our observation kind of wrinkled elephant skin that has oozed out to fin that objects and persons in rapid motionup are not generally seen some kind of boundaries where (the outbound experi- in the remote-viewing mode of perception,menter) and we wished the is standing." Because of the lack of water, the dock traveler to At ir blid.din t as . in fact rest- %o_ hi ilg %lir o C t% the end of er- I I om @ MF Urd?/ tpt "9 9M1q1&0=Jbft Ng 346 PROCEtDINGS OF THE 1E1 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RD.P96-00789ROO310011C - - tion: similarly, this occurs in other parapsychological experi- not be visible to an observer merely standing ments. These observations are compatible with the hypotheses that information received in a putative remote-viewing mode is processed piecemeal in pattern form (consistent with a low bit rate process, but not necessarily requiring it); and the errors arise in the processes of attempted integration of the data into larger patterns directed toward verbal labeling. When the subjects augmented the verbal transcripts with drawings or sketches, these often expressed the target elements more accurately than the verbal descriptions. Thus the draw- ings tended to correspond to the targets more clearly and precisely than the words of the transcript. The descriptions given by the subjects sometimes went be- yond what the remote experimenter experienced, at least con- sciously. For example, one subject (S4) described and drew a belt drive at the top of a drill press that was invisible even to the remote experimenter who was operating the machine; another subject (Sl) described a number of it ems behind shrubbery and thus not visible to members of the demarcation team at the site. Curiously, objects in motion at the remote site were rarely mentioned in the transcript. For example, trains crossing the railroad trestle target were not described, though the remote experimenter stood very close to them. Also in a few cases, the subject descriptions were inaccurate regarding size of structures. A 20-ft courtyard separating two buildings was described as 200 ft wide, and a small shed was expanded to a barn-like structure. c) Blind judging of transcripts: The judging procedure entailed examining the transcripts for a given experimental series and attempting to match the transcripts with the cor- rect targets on the basis of their correspondences. The tran- scripts varied from coherent and accurate descriptions to mix- tures of correspondences and noncorrespondences. Since the judge did not know a priori which elements of the descriptions were correct or incorrect, the task was complicated, and tran- scr@pts often seemed plausibly to match more than one target. A confounding factor in these studies is that some target lo- cations have similarities that seem alike at some level of per- ception. For example, a radio telescope at the top of a hill, the observation deck of a tower, and a jetty on the edge of a bay all match a transcript description of "looking out over a long distance." A lake, a fountain, and a creek may all result in an image of water for the subject. Therefore, in several cases, even correct images may not help in the conservative differential matching procedure used. According to the judge, the most successful procedure was a careful element-by-element comparison that tested each tran- script against every target and used the transcript descriptions and drawings as arguments for or against assigning the tran- script to a particular target. In most cases, this resulted in either a clear conclusion or at least a ranking of probable matches; these matches were subjected to the statistical analyses presented in this paper. 2) Summary: In summary, we do not yet have an under- standing of the nature of the inform ation-b earing signal that a subject perceives during remote viewing. The subjects com- monly report that they perceive the signal visually as though they were looking at the object or place from a position in its immediate neighborhood. Furthermore, the subjects' per- ceptual viewpoint has mobility in that they can shift their point of view so as to describe elements of a scene that would and describing what he sees. (In particular, correctly describes elements not visible to the tion team.) Finally, motion is seldom rep moving objects often are unseen even whei objects are correctly identified. A comparison of the results of remote view free-response task) with results of forced-choic the selection of one of four choices generate@ number generator (581, reveals the following fl- statistical viewpoint. a subject is more likely t( sufficient accuracy to permit blind matching chosen at random than he is to select correc- random numbers. Our experience with these pi us to consider that this difference in task pe., stem from fundamental signal-to-noise consid principal sources of noise in the system appart ory and imagination, both of which can give pictures of greater clarity than the target to be the random number task, a subject can create a picture of each of the four possible outputs in nation and then attempt to obtain the correc mental matching operation. The same is true fc; experiments. On the other hand, the subject ij ing is apparently more likely to approach th blank mind as he attempts to perceive pictori from remote locations about which he may I mental data. Finally, we observe that most of the correc that subjects relate to us is of a nonanalytic na to shape, form, color, and material rather than name. In consultation with Dr. Robert Ornstein c Porter Neuropsychiatric Institute, San Francisco Dr. Ralph Kiernan of the Department of Neuro University M@'dical Center, Stanford, CA, we the tentative hypothesis that paranormal. fun involve specialization characteristic of the brair sphere. This possibility is derived from a variet from clinical and neurosurgical sources which inc two hemispheres of the human brain are speci: ferent cognitive functions. The left hernisphei nantly active in verbal and other analytical functi right hemisphere predominates in spatial and processing [591, (601. Further research is elucidate the relationship between right hemisp and paranormal abilities. Nonetheless, we car point that the remote-viewing results of the groL at SRI have characteristics in common with r performances that require right hemispheric fu similarities include the highly schernaticized dra jects in a room or of remote scenes. Verbal ide: these drawings is often highly inaccurate and themselves are frequently left-right reversed re target configuration. Further, written material not cognized. These characteristics have been brain-injured patients and in callosal-sectioned pat As a result of the above considerations, we hm urge our subjects simply to describe what they se to what they think they are looking at. We have their unanalyzed perceptions are almost always a to the true target than their interpretations of t data.. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 PUTHOFF A#CWIQVQE~EL(?fLRPkRMRE2QQI/W&7ikiCAATnR96-OO789 In the process of judgi against targets on the transcripts-some patterr descriptions became evid styles in remote viewing descriptions given by th judging procedure are disc a) Styles of responj taken from nine differe scripts of one subject wit pattern tended to focu! target complex and to ( individual pattern of resp( Subject S3, for exampi graphical descriptions, m, target locations. Subject the remote experimenter out at the target. The I those of other subjects, h cation, and experiential light/dark elements in i enclosed/open distinction scripts were detailed clesi were concretely experien standing on asphalty blai a purple iris. The of incii: range any Anyone might draw a mal experimenter, but the ci approach suggests that , directly viewed scene wo occur in remote-viewing p b) Nature of the desi that appear most commc subunits of the overall si was a Xerox copy macl rolling object (the movin lifted (S3), but the machi name or function. In a few transcripts, t Fig. named the target. 13. In tt Subject (S4) drawing of drill press showing belt drive, stool, and subject (V2) a apparently I "vertical graph that goes up and down." racks behind it. In the Thus Tower and White the Plaza, t primary achievement'of the SRI program was the elicitation seemed to identify of the high-quality remote viewing from individuals who initial images agreed of the eleme to act as subjects. Criticism of this claim could in There were also principle occasioi be put forward on the basis of three potential flaws. were incorrectly 1) named; The study could involve naivet6 m protocol that permits park were identified various as wa forms of cueing, intentional or unintentional. 2) plant (S 1). The experiments discussed could be selected out of a larger pool The most common of perc experiments of which many are of poorer quality. 3) one-the individual Data eleme for the reported experiments could be edited to show only get. This is the suggestive of matching elements, the nonmatching elements being discarded. perceptions from within tl ALI When the subjects three tried criticisms, however, are invalid. First, with regard to tary impressions, cueing, they o the use of double-blind protocols ensures that none of structed an image the with a persons in contact with the subject can be aware of the target. a feeling of Second, the target as selection of experiments for reporting did not take a subject (SQ place; said it mil every experiment was entered as performed on a master pedestrian overpass log above and is included in the statistical evaluations. Third, data (S4). A rapid associated transit stat with a given experiment remain unedited; all experiments n, OM rQf!b rM JA6 ZOOVOVb7 "61 T ylr edited and evaluated. seem to be the in 1, ge result of the t pac t 3100110001-5 345 ig-attempting to match transcripts basis of the information in the ; and regularities in the transcript nt, particularly regarding individual and in the perceptual form of the subjects. These patterns and the issed below. ,: The fifty-one transcripts were it subjects. Comparing the tran- i those of another revealed that each on certain aspects of the remote Kclucle others, so that each had an nse, like a signature. -, frequently responded with topo- ps, and architectural features of the 32 often focused on the behavior of )r the sequence of actions he carried 7anscripts of subject S4, more than id descriptions of the feel of the lo- or sensory gestalts-for example, @e scene and indoor/outdoor and ;. Prominent features of SI's tran- riptions of what the target persons ing, seeing, or doing-for example, ktop overlooking water; looking at idual subject's responses was wide. or describe the mood of the remote nsistency of each subject's overall ist as individual descriptions of a ild differ, so these differences also ocesses. ription: The concrete descriptions ily in transcripts are at the level of Dne. For example, when the target ne, the responses included (S2) a ; light) or dials and a cover that is ie as a whole was not identified by @e subjects correctly identified and - case of a computer terminal, the erceived the terminal and the relay case of targets which were Hoover @e subjects (S I and S6, respectively) ocations through analysis of their its of the target. al incorrect identifications. Gestalts for example, swimming pools in a @er storage tanks at a water filtration ptual level was thus an intermediate As and items that make up the tar-. scanning process that takes sample overall environment. :o make sense out of these fragmen- :en resorted to metaphors or con- ind of perceptual inference. From n "august" and "solemn" building, it be a library; it was a church. A freeway was described as a conduit )n, elevated above the countryside, ibbolllyse responses 105"M ttempts to Process partial informa- ApproNd For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO310011 OfflMqYDINGS OF THE 1E 00!41PP""1, IN him 891111PNnuesse"Pwase-gar-usm-M F, n FWD =0 TARGET: VIDEO MONITOR FOR TEXT EDITING (TECHNOLOGY SERIES) (a) F-J I (b) Fig. 12. Drawing by two subjects of a video monitor target. (a) Subject (S4) drawing of "box with light coming out of it . and in the middle of the room." (b) Second subject (V2) saw a computer terminal with relay racks in the backgrot TABLE VII DisTRIBL-TION OF RANKINGs AssIGNED TO SUBJECT DRAWINGs AssOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION TABLE VIII SUMMARY: REMOTE VIEWING Number Subject of Experiinents Withnatural targets Sl (experienced)9 S2 and S3 (experienced)a S4 (learner) 9 S5 and S6 (learners)a Vt and V2 (learners/visitors)5 Withtechnology targets S2, S3, S4, V2, 12 V3 tabulation of the statistical evaluations of the Total am of ranks periments with nine subjects is presented in T overall result, evaluated conservatively on judging procedure that ignores transcript quali mate as to what was being described. The analyst, blind as to necessary to rank order the data packets (vastl the target and given only the subject's taped narrative and ing the statistical significance of individuaj drawing (Fig. 13), was able, from the subject's description clearly indicates the presence of an informat alone, to correctly classify the target as a "man-sized vertical useful bit rate. Furthermore, it appears th-, boring machine." difference between experienced subjects anci volunteers is not that the latter never exhibit t G. Summary of Remote Viewing Results rather that their results are simply less reliable, 1) Discussion: The. descriptions supplied by the subjects Nevertheless, as described earlier, individual tz in the experiments involving remote viewing of natural targets the inexperienced group of subjects number L or laboratory apparatus, although containing inaccuracies, the best obtained. Such observations indicat were sufficiently accurate to permit the judges to differentiate that remote viewing may be a latent and wid Approwd FoibRebmsec2OkGtkQaM7dicCIA-RDRMW7P8RtDOa3lQ"1 0001 -5 Rank Subject Target of As:oc'nat:' D swig S3, S4 Drill press 2 S2, S3, Xerox machine 2 V3 S4, V2 Video terminalI 53 Chart recorder2 S4 Random number 6 generator S4 Machine shop 3 S3, S4 Typewriter 2 I PUTHOFF AARRRY9A@EqOALeMWENP) 49NRZ Tq@Ar-gppffi-00789 A TARGET LOCATION: XEROX MACHINE (TECHNOLOGY SERIES) 01( ae"'I Fig. 11. Drawings by three subjects (S2, S3, and V3) for Xerox mac the right, subject (V3) said, "There was this predominant light sour( been the sill, or a working surface or desk." Earlier the subject I window." Observations with unselected subjects such as those de- scribed above indicate that remote viewing may be a latent and widely distributed perceptual ability. F. Technology Series: Short-Range Rentote Viewing Because remote viewing is a perceptual ability, we consid- ered it important to obtain data on its resolution capabilities. To accomplish this, we turned to the use of indoor techno- logical targets. Twelve experiments were carried out with five different sub- jects, two of whom were visiting government scientists. They were told that one of the experimenters would be sent by random protocol to a laboratory within the SRI complex and that he would interact with the equipment or apparatus at that location. It was further explained that the experimenter remaining with the subject was, as usual, kept ignorant of the contents of the target pool to prevent cueing during question- ing, (Unknown to subjects, targets in the pool were used with replacement; one of the goals of thi$ particular experiment was to obtain multiple responses to a given target to investigate whether correlation of a number of subject responses would provide enhancement of the signal-to-noise ratio.) The sub- ject was asked to describe the target both verbally (tape recorded) and by meansof drawings during a time-synchronized 15-min interval in which the outbound experimenter inter- acted in an appropriate manner with the equipment in the target area. In the twelve experiments, seven targets were used: a drill press, Xerox machine, video terminal, chart recorder, four- state random number generator, machine shop, and type- writer. Thrg@of these wexe 11 wice ( dfid;02A0 terminal, an RIAMPM #e three times in our random selection procedure. 3100110001-5 343 3 ADD INTEREST TO TARGET )CATION EXPERIMENTER WITH HIS HEAD BEING XEROXED le square at upper left of response on d a working surface which might have is something silhouetted against the Comparisons of the tar ets and subject drawings for three of the multiple-response cas s (the typewriter, Xerox machine, and video terminal) are shown in Figs. 10, 11, and 12. As is apparent from these illastrations alone, the experiments provide circumstantial ev dence for an information channel of useful bit rate. This includes experiments in which visit- ing government scientis participated as subjects (Xerox machine and video terminal) to observe the protocol. In general, it appears that u ;e of multiple-subject responses to a single target provides be:ter signal-to-noise ratio than target identification by a single ndividual. This conclusion is borne out by the judging describ d below. Given that in general '!the drawings constitute the most accurate portion of a subject's description, in the first judging procedure a judge was asced simply to blind match only the drawings (i.e., without tap,, transcripts) to the targets. Multiple- subject responses to a given target were stapled together, and thus seven subject-drawing response packets were to be matched to the seven diffe@ent targets for which drawings were made. The judge did no@ have access to our photographs of the target locations, used for illustration purposes only, but rather proceeded to each of the target locations by list. While standing at each target location, the judge was required to rank 6rder the seven subject-drawing response packets (presented in random order) on a scale I to 7 (best to worst match). For seven targets, the sum of ranks could range from 7 to 49. The sum in this case, which included I direct hit and 4 second ranks out of the 7 (see Table VII) was 18, a result significant at p = 0.036. In the second more detailed effort at evaluation, a visiting T. njo4r", t WA a tpackages (a gr ed it for in- dependent analysis to an 'engineer with a request for an esti- 342 INGS OF THE IEE Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789RO0310011crdwq!tp TECHNOLOGY SERIES TYPEWRITER TARGET SONS -4 Mwi-e " '29,05 ow u9j&% ftlap atd.# actm rwa" ak 2 "di - wLf4 em W- a. IL23 Q its ZtK wow*u," 4 JWNL OWO.4 SUBJECT SWANN (S3) RESPONSE SUBJECT HAMMID (S4) RESPOM Fig. 10. Drawings of a typewriter target by two subjects. The second visitor [V21 participated as a subject in two ex- periments. In his first experiment, he generated' one of' the higher signal-to-noise results we have observed. He began his narrative, "There is a red A-frame building and next to it is a large yellow thing [a tree-Editor]. Now further left there is another A-shape. It looks like a swing-set, but it is pushed down in a gully so I can't see the swings." [All cor- rect.] He then went on to describe a lock on the front door that he said "looks like it's made of laminated steel, so it must be a Master lock." [Alsocorrect.] For the series of five-three from the first subject and two from the second-the numerical evaluation based on blind rank ordering of the transcripts at each site was significant at p:= 0.017 and included three direct hits and one second.rank Apprbv6d fW-RVFft%@dr2W*/93MTT- aG4AIRDP96-00~,SQRO~3100110001-5 TABLE V1 DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGs ASSIGNED To TRANSCRIPTS EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR VISITOR SUBJECTS V Dieter SubjectTarget Location (km) V1 Bridge over stream,0.- Menlo Park vi Baylands Nature 6.4 Preserve, Palo Alto vi Merry-go-round, 3.4 Palo Alto V2 Windmill, PortoLa 8.5 Valley V2 Apartment swimming 9.1 pool, Mountain View Total mum of ranks Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 341 PUTHOFF AND TARG.- PERCEPTUAL CHANNEL FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER Fig. 8. Subject (S6) drawing of White Plaza, Stanford University. Sub- ject drew what she called "curvy benches" and then announced cor. rectly that the place was "White Plaza at Stanford." Second, when an individual observes a successful demonstra- tion experiment involving another person as subject, it inevi- tably occurs to him that perhaps chicanery is involved. We have found the most effective way to settle this issue for the observer is to have the individual himself act as a subject so as to obtain personal experience against which our reported results can be evaluated. The first visitor (VI) was invited to participate as a subject in a three-experiment series. All three experiments contained elements descriptive of the associated target locations; the quality of response increased with practice. The third re- sponse is s"mfbd9Fv*eRe4da_4e 2Yff/09M7's:"ClA-RDP96 the drawing appeared to be a closer match than the subject's analytic interpretation of the target object as a cupola. Fig. 9. Subject (VII) drawing of merry-go-round target. Apprdftd For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789RO0310011MOIF-§DINGS OF THE IEI TABLEIV DISTRIBUTION OF RANKiNos AssiGNED To TRANSCRIPI WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR EXPERIENCED SUBJE AND SWANN (S3) Distan, Sub Target Location Me) lect S2 BART St&Li= (Transit16.1 System), Fremont S2 Shielded room, SRI, 0.1 Menlo Park S2 Tennis court, Palo 3.4 Alto S2 Golf course bridge@ 3.4 Stanford S3 City Hall, Palo Alto2.0 S3 Miniature golf course,3.0 Menlo Park S3 KLosk in park, Menlo0.3 Park S3 Baylands Nature Preserve,6.4 Palo Alto Total sum of ranks TABLE V DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED To TRANSCRII WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR LEARNER SUBJE( 4 W3A 441% A%00- 0., -TO, Pet - J%% " ObA j-@O" .4. 4. tkJ. CAO" -Ad.4- 6.3&* wi Fig. 7. Subject Swann (S3) response to City 1-iaii target. group, did not differ significantly irom, chance. For the series of eight Oudged as a group of seven since one target came up twice, once for each subject), the numerical evaluation based on blind rank ordering of transcripts at each site was non- significant at p = 0.08, even though there were two direct hits and two second ranks out of the seven (see Table V). One of the direct hits, which occurred with subject S6 in her first experiment, provides an example of the "first-time effect" that has been rigorously explored and is well-known to experi- menters in the field (571. The outbound experimenter obtained, by random protocol from the pool, a target blind to the experimenter with the subject; as is our standard pro- ,p h1%JhPft "llpFf6W0,Fhe(M@t I Ic 6 ,13p96go Apprbftf f m C u er a I ian in science laboratory w o had no pre- Distanc, SubiectTarget Location (km) S5 Pedestrian overpass,5.0 Palo Alto S5 Railroad trestle 1.3 bridge, Palo Alto SS Windmill, Portola 8.5 Valley S5, White Plaza, Stanford3.8 S6 (2) 6 Airport, Palo Alto5.5 :6 KLosk in Park, 0.3 Menlo Park S6 Boathouse, Stanford4.0 Total sum of ranks vious experience in remote viewing, began to c square with a fountain. Four minutes into tl she recognized the location and correctly identi (see Fig. 8). (It should be noted that in the ai the target locations were drawn there are o as well, some of which were in the target po( ample of the style of the narratives generated viewing with inexperienced subjects and of the the experimenter remaining with the subject i we have included the entire unedited text of t] as Appendix B. E. Normal and Paranormal: Use of Unselected S Remote Viewing After more than a year of following the exp tocol described above and observing that even subjects generated results better than expected, series of experiments to explore further whetf other than putative "psychics" can demonstrai viewing ability. To test this idea, we have a c. gram to carry out additional experiments of the with new subjects whom we have no a priori rez have paranormal perceptual ability. To date we data from five experiments with two individual gory: a man and a woman who were visitin scientists interested in observing our experimer The motivation for these particular experiments 0f8Jf;@6VM0j"0V1yjSe data that indicai r, I pro iciency that can be expected from unselectc rs rm 71. 1040A'AW% @v w4i ? Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 339 PUTHOFF AND TARG: PERCEPTUAL CHANNEL FOR INFORMATION TRANSFER xvv TARGET-TENNIS COURTS Fig. 6. Subject Elgin-(S2) drawings in response to tennis court subject. It was a demonstration experiment for a government visitor who had heard of our work and wanted to evaluate our experimental protocol. In the laboratory, the subject, holding a bearing compass at arm's length, began the experiment by indicating the direction of the target demarcation team coffectly to within 50. (In all four experiments with this subject, he has always been within 100 of the correct direction in this angular assessment.) The subject then generated a 15-min tape-recorded description and the drawings shown in Fig. 6. In discussing the drawings, Elgin indicated that he was uncertain as to the action, but had the impression that the demarcation team was located at a museum (known to him) in a particular park. In fact, the target was a tennis court lo- cated in that park about 90 m from the indicated museum. Once again, we note the characteristic (discussed earlier) of a resemblance between the target site and certain gestalt ele- ments of the subject's response, especially in regard to the drawings, coupled with incomplete or effoneous analysis of the significances. Nonetheless, when rank ordering transcripts I through 8 at the site, the judge ranked this transcript as 2. This example illustrates a continuing observation that most of the correct information related to us by subjects is of a non- analytic nature pertaining to shape, form, color, and material rather than to function or name. A second example from this group, generated by S3 (Swann), indicates thApp$ "@@edc,154*mRetleasv 20049100fith practice. In the " o years since we first started working with Swann, he has been studying the problem of separating the ex- . - - - - - - experiments, he dictates contains objects that he at the remote scene. A thinks are at the scene. progress in this most t and imagination from p bringing the remote-view its potential usefulness. The quality of transcri cess is evident from the with Swann. The target blind protocol was the P tall building with vertica sketch, together with th Fig. 7. He said there v At the time the target , experiment, the fountai effort to draw a replica ( of the building, and coi (four) in the sketch. For the entire series o numerical evaluation 'ba scripts at each site was cluded three direct hits associated transcripts (se Z1610 RUFF96-1bW CPA- 96:0 To complete the serie out with leamer subject! - ___- two lists for us to record. One list sees," but does not think are located second List contains objects that he n our evaluation, he has made much sential ability to separate memory ranormal inputs. This is the key to ng channel to fruition with regard to t that can be generated by this pro- %ults of our most recent experiment ocation chosen by the usual double- o Alto City Hall. Swann described a columns and "set in" windows, His photograph of the site, is shown in s a fountain, "but I don't hear it." am was at the City Hall during the was not running. He also made an the designs in the pavement in front -.ctly indicated the number of trees eight, four each from S2 and S3, the ed on blind rank ordering of tran- ignificant at p 3.8 X 10-4 and in- rid three second ranks for the target- Table IV). )031'00110001 -5 four experiments each were carried SS and S6, a man and woman on the _ -_t- - fh;@ ncp tIL-Pn @e @ 338 P-WCEEDINGS OF THE I Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 _5 S@4 % Fig. 5. Subject Harnmid (S4) response to bicycle shed target described as an open "barn-like building" with "sl on the sides" and a "Pitched roof." TABLE III DISTRIBUTIONoF RANKi,,,Gs AssIGNEDToTRANSCRipTsAsSOCIATED wiTH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR LEARNER SUBJECT HAMMID (S4) Total sum of ranks 13 (P.L.BX10-6) experiment series were submitted for independent judging on a blind basis by an SRI research analyst not otherwise associ- ated with the research. While at each target location, visited in turn, the judge was required to blind rank order the nine unedited typed manuscripts of the tape-recorded narratives, along with any associated drawings generated by the remote viewer, on a scale I to 9 (best to worst match). The sum of ranks assigned to the target-associated transcripts in this case was 13, a result significant at p = 1.8 X 10-6 by exact calcula- Rank -Target Location DistanceOf (km) Assoc Lated Transcript Methodist Church, 1.9 L Palo Alto 46as Audicorium, 0.2 t Menlo Park Merry-go-round, Palo3.4 1 Alto ?arking &&rag*, Mountainall 2 View SRI International 0.2 t Courtyard, Menlo Park Bicycle shed, Menlo 0.1 2 Park Railroad trestle 1.3 2 bridge, Polo Alto Pt=pkLn patch, Menlo1.3 1 Park Pedestrian overpass,5. 2 Palo Alto Again, as a backup judging procedure, a pai tional judges not otherwise associated wit! were asked simply to blind match the unedi@ scripts and associated drawings generated by the against the nine target locations which they visited in turn. A correct match consisted of a given date being matched to the target of stead of the expected number of I match the number of correct matches obtained by was 5, 3, 3, 2, and 2, respectively. Thus, rath pected total number of 5 correct matches fr( 15 such matches were obtained. C. Subjects S2 and S3: Experienced Having completed a series of 18 remote-viewin 9 each with experienced subject S I (Price) a (Hammid), additional replication experiments, . subject, were carried out with experienced subjt and S3 (Swann) and learners S5 and S6. To ph on a basis comparable to that used with S I an( transcripts each of experienced subjects S2 and bined into a group of eight for rank order judgi pared with the similariy combined results oi SS and S6. The series with S2 (Elgin, an SRI research ana a further example of the dichotomy between ve, ing responses. (As with medical literature, case i tian eu Appo He0'6WV wum 071~dMAYROP9*tOO789RODM*041$1)M45e summary of resu r' 0 qt/ffl/ anY oursecond ra Ae' ). periment described here was the third conduc BICYCLE SHED TARGET DETAIL OF BICYCLE SHED PUTHOFF,APPKQVIDAIFC9FTIRQLIQA§g~N299AAQ;1974ACm64W-Fp,QP4Ca~,,00789ROO3100110O01-5 337 .......... PEDESTRIAN OVERPASS TARGET Fig. 4. Subject Hammid (S4) drawing, described as "some kind of diagonal TABLE11 DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED To TRANSCRIPTS AssocIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR ExPERIENCED SUBJECT PRICE (SI) Rank Target Location Distanceof (km) Associated Transcript Hoover Tower, Stanford3.4 t Baylands Nature 6.4 1 Preserve, Palo Alto Radio telescope, 6.4 1 Porcola Valley Marina, Redwood 6.8 1 City Bridge toll plaza, 14.5 6 Fremont Drive-in theater, 5.1 1 Palo Alto Arts and Crafts 1.9 L Plazs@ Menlo Park Catholic Church, 8.5 3 Portala Valley Sviussing pool complex,3.4 Palo Alto Total s= of ranks L6 0.2.9xlO-6) who felt that he used his remote-viewing ability in his every- day life. In comparison with the latter two, many people are more influenced by their environment and are reluctant under public scrutiny to attempt activities that are generally thought to be impossible. Society often provides inhibition and nega- tive feedback to the individual who might otherwise have explored his own nonregular perceptual ability. We all share an historical tradition of "the stoning of prophets and the burning of w*pprovech Em PleimseeROGIM/0 a; tion of those who claim to perceive things that the majority do not admit to seeing. Therefore, in addition to maintaining scientific rigor, one of provide an environmeni explore the possibility o subject, we also try to sl because from our exper to be a latent ability th degree. Because of Mrs. Hamr pable of drawing and d( not identify in any cognit demarcation team went pedestrian overpass, the trough up in the air," v of her drawing in Fig. 4 stand where they are sl this," indicating the nesi As it turned out, a judge have a view closely resen seen from the accompan tion. It needs to be em; have access to our pho illustrative purposes only of the target locations by In another experimen@ open barnlike structure , a "kind of slatted side tc bars on the wall." Hei associated bicycle shed t are encouraged to make CLk 'E11)f?a4D46[7 9P .1 make are in general more a As in the original serie up in the air." ir primary tasks as researchers is to in which the subject feels safe to paranormal perception. With a new ess the nonuniqueness of the ability nce paranormal functioning appeaxs t all subjects can articulate to some id's artistic background, she was ca- ;cribing visual images that she could ve or analytic sense. When the target to a target location which was a ,ubject said that she saw "a kind of hich she indicated in the upper part She went on to explain, "If you inding you will see something like -d squares at the bottom of Fig. 4. standing where she indicated would bling what she had drawn, as can be ring photographs of the target loca- iasized, however, that judges did not ographs of the site, used here for but rather they proceeded to each .- the subject described seeing "an rith a pitched roof." She also saw the structure making light and dark drawing and a photograph of the xget are shown in Fig. 5. (Subjects Ira f anything they visualize w Q306h4GAMrawings; they @curate than their verbal description-) with price, the results of the nine- J 3 EDINGS OF THE Il Appro4d For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789RO03100110664I28 _L_J AV E. ELECT TENNIS DIXT. COURTS 76 PLAY 100 GROUNCIS SERVICE POOL HOUSE CONCRETE YARD BLOCK FIRE STATION PICNIC AREA it: L 7' r 1c, (a) (b) Fig. 3. Swimming pool complex as remote-viewing target. (a) City map of target location. (b) Drawing by Price i TABLEI CRITICAL VALUES OF SUMS OF RANKS FOR PREFERENTIAL MATCHING NumberProbability of (one-tailed) Assi that nabl the Indicated Sum of Ranks or Less Would Occur by Chance e g 0.20O.LO0.050.040.0250.010.0050.0020.0010.000510-410-610-6to-' Ranks (N) 4 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 it 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 16 15 13 13 12 11 to 9 8 7 6 7 22 20 is is 17 is 1.4 12 12 11 9 a 8 29 27 24 24 22 20 19 17 16 15 13 it 9 a 9 37 34 31 30 29 26 24 22 21 20 17 14 12 to 10 46 42 39 38 36 33 31 29 27 25 22 19 16 13 11 56 51 48 47 45 41 38 36 34 32 28 24 20 17 67 61 58 56 54 49 47 43 41 39 35 30 25 22 Note: This table applies only to those special cases in which the number of occasions on which objects are being ranked (n) is equal to the number of assignable ranks (N). Each entry represents the largest number that is significant at the indicated p-level. Source: R. L. Morris (55 1. shielding does not prevent high-quahty descriptions from being obtained. As a backup judging procedure, a panel of five additional SRI scientists not otherwise associated with the research were asked simply to blind match the unedited typed transcripts (with associated drawings) generated by the remote viewer against the nine target locations which they independently visited in tum. The transcripts were unlabeled and prese nted in random order. A correct match consisted of a transcript of a given date being matched to the target of that date. In- stead of the expected number of I match each per judge, the number of correct matches obtained by the five judges was 7, 6, 5, @,.-and,4,,irfspectiv @r 4 APprq&QChtrn9bG 9@-a&AQVM4'nM- A&M-117 matches were obtained. B. Subject S4: Learner This experiment was designed to be a replic, vious experiment with Price, the first replica The subject for this experiment was Mrs. H gifted professional photographer. She was s series on the basis of her successful perforn cipient in the EEG experiment described earl that interaction, she had no previous experienc paranormal functioning. At the time we began working with Mrs. liz no strong feelings about the likelihood of he: ceed in this task. This was in contrast to bc ft*fffi&?WJaVratory fresh from iFsJof experiments wit Schmeidler at City College of New York (56 PU@HOFF AAppcjweArEg*fkQI~araaOQ)IWW&Vm;kfAA-RDRWO0789ROO3100110001-5 335 class of paranormal perception phenomenon exists. A t all times, we and others responsible for the overall program took measures to prevent sensory leakage and subliminal cueing and to prevent deception, whether intentional or unintentional. To ensure evaluations independent of belief structures of both experimenters and judges, all experiments were carried out under a protocol, described below, in which target selection at the beginning of experiments and blind judging of results at the end of experiments were handled independently of the researchers engaged in carrying out the experiments. Six subjects, designated S I through S6, were chosen for the study. Three were considered as gifted or experienced subjects (S I through S 3), and three were considered as learners (S 4 through S6). The a priori dichotomy between gifted and learners was based on the experienced group having been successful in other studies conducted before this program and the learners group being inexperienced with regard to paranormal experimentation. The study consisted of a series of double-blind tests with local targets in the San Francisco Bay Area so that several in- dependent judges could visit the sites to establish documenta- tion. The protocol was to closet the subject with an experi- menter at SRI and at an agreed-on time to obtain from the subject a description of an undisclosed remote site being visited by a target team. In each of the experiments, one of the six program subjects served as remote-viewing subject, and SRI experimenters served as a target demarcation team at the remote location chosen in a double-blind protocol as follows. In each experiment, SRI management randomly chose a target location from a list of targets within a 30-min driving time from SRI; the target location selected was kept blind to subject and experimenters. The target pool consisted of more than 100 target locations chosen from a target-rich environ- ment. (Before the experimental series began, the Director of the Information Science and Engineering Division, not other- wise associated with the experiment, established the set of lo- cations as the target pool which remained known only to him. The target locations were printed on cards sealed in envelopes and kept in the SRI Division office safe. They were available only with the personal assistance of the Division Director who issued a single random-number selected target card that con- stituted the traveling orders for that experiment.) In detail: To begin the experiment, the subject was closeted with an experimenter at SRI to wait 30 min before beginning a narrative description of the remote location. A second ex- perimenter then obtained from the Division Director a target location from a set of traveling orders previously prepared and randomized by the Director and kept under his control. The target demarcation team, consisting-of two to four SRI experi- menters, then proceeded by automobile directly to the target without any communication with the subject or experimenter remaining behind. The experimenter remaining with the sub- ject at SRI was kept ignorant of both the particular target and the target pool so as to eliminate the possibility of cueing (overt or subliminal) and to allow him freedom in questioning the subject to clarify his descriptions. The demarcation team remained at the target site for an agreed-on 15-min period following the 30 min allotted for travel .4 During the observa- 4 The first - it w tA.JAVfj@AVgrdJrd lig "ro.' d--JfPffl7': as found :9M% is min. The viewing time was therefore reduced to 15 min for subjects S2 through S6. tion period, the remote-*iewing subject was asked to describe his impressions of the t@.rget site into a tape recorder and to make any drawings he thought appropriate. An informal com- parison was then made when the demarcation team returned, and the subject was takeh to the site to provide feedback. A. Subfecr SI: Experien To begin the series, Pati Price, a former California police com missioner and city co cilman, participated as a subject in nine experiments. In general, Price's ability to describe correctly buildings, docks, roads, gardens, and the like, includ ing structural materials, color, ambience, and activity-often in great detail-indicate the functioning of a remote per ceptual ability. A Hocver Tower target, for example, was recognized and named lp@ name. Nonetheless, in general, the descriptions contained iiaccuracies as well as correct state ments. A typical exampl is indicated by the subject's drawing shown in Fig. 3 in which he correctly described a park-like area containing two pools of water: one rectangular, 60 by 89 ft (actual dimension3 75 by 100 ft); the other circular, diameter 120 ft (actual diameter 110 ft). He incorrectly indi cated the function, ho ever, as water filtration rather than recreational swimming. (We often observe essentially correct descriptions of basic elements and patterns coupled with in complete or erroneous analysis of function.) As can be seen I from his drawing, he also included some elements, such as the tanks shown in the upper right, that are not present at the target site. We also note an apparent left-right reversal, often observed in paranormal P rception experiments. To obtain a numerica. evaluation of the accuracy of the remote-viewing experiment, the experimental results were subjected to independen: judging on a blind basis by an SRI research analyst not otterwise associated with the research. The subject's response packets, which contained the nine typed unedited transcripts of the tape-recorded narratives along with any associatel drawings, were unlabeled and pre- sented in random order. 1 While standing at each target loca- tion, visited in turn; the dge was required to blind rank order @se I to 9 (best to worst match). The the nine packets on a tsc um statistic of interest is h of ranks assigned to the target- associated transcripts, lower values indicating better matches. For nine targets, the sum of ranks could range from nine to eighty-one. The probab@lity that a given sum of ranks s or less will occur by chance io given by [ 5 51 I k (n) (i - IVI - 1) Pr (s or less) = F_ i-n 1-0 1 n where s is obtained sum of ranks, N is number of assignable ranks, n is number of occasions on which rankings were made, and I takes on values from zero to the least positive integer k in (i - n)ln. (Table I is a table to enable easy application of the above formula to tho@e cases in which N = n.) The sum in this case, which included !seven direct hits out of the nine, was 16 (see Table 11), a resO significant at p = 2.9 X 10-' by exact calculation. i In Experiments 3, 4, and 6 through 9, the subject was se- cured in a double-walled copper-screen Faraday cage. The Faraday cage provides .20-dB attenuation for plane-wave radio-frequency radiation I over a range of 15 kHz to I GHz. OM-REW96 4QJ04 $Mot$@-Jt 15 kHz and IMSOR *3 decreases to 3 dB at 60 1 z. The results of rank order judging (Table 11) indicate that the use of Faraday cage electrical Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO310011000436EDINGS OF THE IF search for physiological correlates of information transfer, he 0 used the plethysmograph to measure changes in the blood C: volume in a finger, a sensitive indicator of autonomic nervous system functioning (47). A plethysmographic measurement was made on the finger of a subject during telepathy experi- t ments. A sender looked at randomly selected target cards consisting of names known to the subject, together with names unknown to him (selected at random from a telephone book). LU The names of the known people were contributed by the sub- (D ject and were to be of emotional significance to him. Dean < found significant changes in the chart recording of finger 0 blood volume when the remote sender was looking at those > names known to the subject as compared with those names randomly chosen. Three other experiments using the physiological approach have now been published. The first work by Tart [48 a later work by Lloyd [491, and most recently the work by the authors [ 41 all follow a similar procedure. Basically, a subject is closeted in an electrically shielded room while his EEG is recorded. Meanwhile, in another laboratory, a second person is stimulated from time to time, and the time of that stimulus is marked on the magnetic-tape recording of the subject's EEG. The subject does not know when the remote stimulus periods are as compared with the nonstimulus periods. With regard to choice of stimulus for our own experimenta- tion, we noted that in previous work others had attempted, without success, to detect evoked potential changes in a sub- ject's EEG in response to a single stroboscopic flash stimulus observed by another subject [50]. In a discussion of that experiment, Kamiya suggested that because of the unknown temporal characteristics of the information channel, it might be more appropriate to use repetitive bursts of light to increase the probability of detecting information transfer [ 511. There- fore, in our study we chose to use a stroboscopic flash train of 10-s duration as the remote stimulus. In the design of the study, we assumed that the application of the remote stimulus would result in responses similar to those obtained under conditions of direct stimulation. For example, when an individual is stimulated with a low- frequency (< 30 Hz) flashing light, the EEG typically shows a decrease in the amplitude of the resting rhythm and a driving of the brain waves at the frequency of the flashes (52 1. We hypothesized that if we stimulated one subject in this manner (a putative sender), the EEG of another subject in a remote room with no flash present (a receiver) might show changes in alpha (9-11 Hz) activity and possibly an EEG driving similar to that of the sender, or other.coupling to the sender's EEG (531. The receiver was seated in a visually opaque, acoustically and electrically shielded, double-walled steel room about 7 m from the sender. The details of the experiment, consisting of seven runs of thirty-six 10-s trials each (twelve periods each for 0-Hz, 6-Hz, and 16-Hz stimuli, randomly intermixed), are presented in [4]. This experiment proved to be successful. The receiver's alpha activity (9-11 Hz) showed a significant reduction in average power (-24 percent, p < 0.04) and peak power (-28 percent, p < 0.03) during 16-Hz flash stimuli as compared with periods of no-flash stimulus. [A similar response was observed for 6-Hz stimuli (-12 percent in average power, -21 percent in peak power), but the latter result did not reach statistical significance.) Fig. 2 shows an overlay of three averaged EEG spectra from 5 Hz 10 Hz Fig. 2. Occipital EEG frequency spectra, 0-20 Hz, of acting as receiver showing amplitude changes in the function of strobe frequency. Three cases: 0-, 6- (twelve trial averages). results were produced by system artifacts, pickup (EMI), or subtle cueing; the results w; As part of the experimental protocol, the s to indicate a conscious assessment for each tr key) as to the nature of the stimulus; analy guesses to be at chance. Thus arousal as evid cant alpha blocking occurred only at the non( physiological response. Hence the experimen physiological (EEG) evidence of perception o even in the absence of overt cognitive response Whereas in our experiments we used a remoi stimulus, Tart [481 in his work used an ele himself as sender, and Lloyd (491 simply to think of a red triangle each time a red wr illuminated within his view. Lloyd observ evoked potential in his subjects; whereas in and in Tart's, a reduction in amplitude and z tion of alpha was observed-an arousal respon is resting in an alpha-dominant condition stimulated, for example in any direct manner, a desynchronization and decrease in alpha p( sider that these combined results are evidence f of noncognitive awareness of remote happenin have a profound implication for paranormal re- 111. SRI INVESTIGATIONS OF REMOTE Experimentation in remote viewing began carried out to investigate the abilities of a N Ingo Swann, when he expressed the opinion t. gained during experiments at SRI had strength (verified in other research before he joined th@ to view remote locations (54]. To test Mr. tion, a pilot study was set up in which a series around the globe were supplied by SRI perso perimenters on a double-blind. basis. Mr. SM ability to describe correctly details of bi, bridges, and the like indicated that it may a subject by means of mental imagery to acce randomly chosen geographical sites located from the subject's position and demarcated L priate means. Therefore, we set up a resear test the remote-viewing hypothesis under rig scientific conditions. one gf-1he b' ct's 16 V ,1W&p1agf& gam, we concentrat pCft2 Appr xt9XtAM§ftt e cb I OaY#9 SOP c al responsibility -t control procedures were undertaken to determine if these unambiguous conditions the basic issue of whe PUTHOFFAArjpf&V.e]dFFFDMTRgjgaSW200VOWOqMAC~A-RDPWO0789RP03100110001-5 333 For Stepanek's run, with pi = 1 , pi (j) = 0.619, and an average T time of 9 s per choice, we have a source uncertainty H(x) = I bit and a calculated bit rate or R ;zz,,0.041 bit/symbol RIT- 0.0046 bit/s. (Since the I 5-digit number (49.8 bits) actually was transmitted at the rate of 2.9 X 10-4 bit/s, an increase in bit rate by a factor of about 20 could be expected on the basis of a coding scheme more optimum than that used in the experiments. See, for example, Appendix A.) Dr. Charles Tart at the University of California has written extensively on the so-called decline effect. He considers that having subjects attempt to guess cards, or perform any other repetitious task for which they receive no feedback, follows the classical technique for cleconditioning any response. He thus considers card guessing "a technique for extinguishing psychic functioning in the laboratory" (32 1. Tart's injunctions of the mid-sixties were being heeded at Maimonides Hospital, Brooklyn, NY, by a team of researchers that included Dr. Montague Ullman, who was director of research for the hospital; Dr. Stanley Krippner; and, later, Charles Honorton. These three worked together for several years on experiments on the occurrence of telepathy in dreams. In the course of a half-dozen experimental series, they found in their week-long sessions a number of subjects who had dreams that consistently were highly descriptive of pictorial material that a remote sender was looking at throughout the night. This work is described in detail in the experimenters' book Dream Telepathy (33]. Honorton is continuing work of this free-response type in which the subject has no precon- ceived idea as to what the target may be. In his more recent. work with subjects in the waking state, Honorton is providing homogeneous stimulation to the subject who is to describe color slides viewed by another person in a remote room. In this new work, the subject listens to white noise via earphones and views an homogeneous visual field imposed through the use of Ping-Pong ball halves to cover the subject's eyes in conjunction with diffuse ambient illumina- tion. In this so-called Ganzfeld setting, subjects are again able, now in the waking state, to give correct and often highly accurate descriptions of the material being viewed by the sender [34]. In Honorton's work and elsewhere, it apparently has been the step away from the repetitive forced-choice experiment that has opened the way for a wide variety of ordinary people to demonstrate significant functioning in the laboratory, with- out being bored into a decline effect. This survey would be incomplete if we did not indicate certain aspects of the current state of research in the USSR. It is clear from translated documents and other sources [351 that many laboratories in the USSR are engaged in paranormal research. Since the 1930's, in the laboratory of L. Vasiliev (Leningrad Institute for Brain Research), there has been an interest in the use of telepathy as a method of influencing the behavior of a person at a distance. In Vasiliev's book Experiments in Mental Suggestion, he makes it very clear that the bulk of his labora- tory's experiments were aimed at long-distance communica- tion combined with a form of behavior modification; for example, PUW."n Old d t Era d-#sRffib,'%9e2D61M/07- nosis (361. Similar behavior modi cation types of experiments have been carried out in recent times by 1. M. Kogan, Chairman of the Bioinformation S f the Moscow Board of the Popov Society, He is a Soviet engineer who, until 1969, published extensively on the theory of telepathic communication [371- [40]. He was concerned with three principal kinds of experi- ments: mental suggestion without hypnosis over short dis- tances, in which the percipient attempts to identify an object; mental awakening over short distances, in which a subject is awakened from a hypno:ic sleep at the "beamed" suggestion from the hypnotist; and ong-range (intercity) telepathic com- munication. Kogan's main interest has been to quantify the channel capacity of the paranormal channel. He finds that the bit rate decreases from .1 bit/s for laboratory experiments to 0.005 bit/s for his 100 )-km intercity experiments. In the USSR, serious c( nsideration is given to the hypothesis that telepathy is mediate I by extremely low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic propaga ion. (The pros and cons of this hypothesis are discussed in Section V of this paper.) In general, the entire field of paranormal research in the USSR is part of a larger one concerned with the interaction between electromagnetic fields a d living organisms [41), [42). At the First International Congress on Parapsychology and Psychotronics: in Prague, Czechoslovakia, in 1973, for example, Kholodov spoke at leng1h about the susceptibility of Living systems to extremely low-level ac and dc fields. He described conditioning effects on the behavior of fish resulting from the application of 10 to 100 4W of RF to their tank [43 ]. The USSR take these data se iously in that the Soviet safety re- quirements for steady-state microwave exposure set limits at 10,4W/cm2, whereas t United States has set a steady-state limit Of 10 MW/CM2 (441. Kholodov spoke also about the nonthermal effects of microwaves on animals' central nervous systems. His experiments were very carefully carried out and are characteristic of a new dimension in paranormal research. The increasing importance of this area in Soviet research was indicated recently when 1he Soviet Psychological Association issued an unprecedented position paper calling on the Soviet Academy of Sciences to step up efforts in this area [45 1. They recommended that the newly formed Psychological Institute within the Sov et Academy of Sciences and the Psychological Institute of he Academy of Pedagogical Sciences review the area and consider the creation of a new laboratory within one of the institutes to study persons with unusual abilities. They also reco ended a comprehensive evaluation of experiments and theor3, by the Academy of Sciences' Insti- tute of Biophysics and Institute for the Problems of Informa- tion Transmission. The Soviet research, along with other behavioristically oriented work, suggests t at in addition to obtaining overt responses such as verbalizations or key presses from a subject, it should be possible to obtain objective evidence of informa- tion transfer by direct M surement of physiological parame- ters of a subject. Kamya, Lindsley, Pribram, Silverman, Walter, and others brought together to discuss physiological methods to detect ESP 'unctioning, have suggested that a whole range of electroencA phalogram (EEG) responses such as evoked potentials (EP's), st ontaneous EEG, and the contingent negative variation (CNV) might be sensitive indicators of the detection of remote stimpli not mediated by usual sensory processes (46). 1 903"(p"ONIc5ned out by "DPO&MPOW CDouglas Dean at the NewOrk CoUege of Engineering. In his 332 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 most celebrated case of criticism of Rhine's work, that of G. R. Price [121, ended 17 years after it began when the accusation of fraud was retracted by its author in an article entitled, "Apology to Rhine and Soal," published in the same journal in which it was first put forward f 13 1. It should also be noted that parapsychological researchers themselves re- cently exposed fraud in their own laboratory when they encountered it [141. At the end of the 1940's, Prof. S. G. Soal, an English mathe- matician working with the SPR, had carried out hundreds of card guessing experiments involving tens of thousands of caUs [15]. Many of these experiments were carried out over ex- tended distances. One of the most notable experiments was conducted with Mrs. Gloria Stewart between London and Antwerp. This experiment gave results whose probability of occurring by chance were less than 10-8. With the publication of Modern Experiments in Telepathy by Soal and Bateman (both of whom were statisticians), it appeared that card guess- ing experiments produced significant results, on the average.3 The most severe criticism of all this work, a criticism diffi- cult to defend against in principle, is that leveled by the well- known British parapsychological critic C. E. M. Hansel [ 17], who began his examination of the ESP hypothesis with the stated assumption, "In view of the a prior! arguments against it we know in advance that telepathy, etc., cannot occur." Therefore, based on the "a priori unlikelihood" of ESP, Hansel's examination of the literature centered primarily on the possibility of fraud, by subjects or investigators. He reviewed in depth four experiments which he regarded as providing the best evidence of ESP: the Pearce-Pratt distance series (181; the Pratt-Woodruff (191 series, both conducted at Duke; and Soal's work with Mrs. Stewart and Basil Shackle- ton (151, as well as a more recent series by Soal and Bowden [20 1. Hansel showed, in each case, how fraud could have been committed (by the experimenters in the Pratt-Woodruff and Soal-Bateman series, or by the subjects in the Pearce-Pratt and Soal-Bowden experiments). He gave no direct evidence that fraud was committed in these experiments, but said, "If the result could have arisen through a trick, the experiment must be considered unsatisfactory proof of ESP, whether or not it is finally decided that such a trick was in fact used" [ 17, p. 181.. As discussed by Honorton in a review of the field 121 ], Hansel's conclusion after 241 pages of careful scrutiny therefore was that these experiments were not "fraud-proof" and therefore in principle could not serve as conclusive proof of ESP. Even among the supporters of ESP research and its results, there remained the consistent problem that many successful subjects eventually lost their ability and their scores gradually drifted toward chance results. This decline effect in no way erased their previous astronomical success; but it was a disap- pointment since if paranormal perception is a natural ability, one would like to see subjects improving with practice rather than getting worse. One of the first successful attempts to overcome the decline effect was in Czechoslovakia in the work of Dr. Milan Ryzl, a chemist with the Institute of Biology of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Science and also an amateur hypnotist [221. Through the use of hypnosis, together with feedback and PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, MARCH I @76 CIA-RDID96-00789RO03100110001-5 reinforcement, he developed several outstanding subjects, one of whom, Pavel Stepanek, has worked with experimenters around the world for more than 10 years. Ryzl's pioneering work came as an answer to the questions raised by the 1956 CIBA Foundation conference on extra- sensory perception. The CIBA Chemical Company has annual meetings on topics of biological and chemical interest, and that same year they assembled several prominent parapsy- chologists to have a state-of-the-art conference on ESP (23). The conference concluded that little progress would be made in parapsychology research until a repeatable experiment could be found; namely, an experiment that different experi- menters could repeat at will and that would reliably yield a statistically significant result. RyzI had by 1962 accomplished that goal. His primary con- tribution was a decision to interact with the subject as a per- son, to try to build up his confidence and ability. His protocol depended on "working with" rather than "running" his sub- jects. RyzI's star subject, Pavel Stepanek, has produced highly significant results with many contemporary researchers [241- [29 1. In these experiments, he was able to tell with 60-percent reliability whether a hidden card was green side or white side up, yielding statistics of a million to one with only a thousand trials. As significant as such results are statistically, the information channel is imperfect, containing noise along with the signal. When considering how best to use such a channel, one is led to the communication theory concept of the introduction of redundancy as a means of coding a message to combat the effects of a noisy channel [301. A prototype experiment by RyzI using such techniques has proved to be successful. Ryz1 had an assistant select randomly five groups of three digits each. These IS digits were then encoded into binary form and translated into a sequence of green and white cards in sealed envelopes. By means of repeated calling and an elaborate majority vote protocol, Ryz1 was able after 19 350 calls by Stepanek (averaging 9 s per call) to correctly identify all Is numbers, a result significant at p = 10-15 The hit rate for individual calls was 61.9 percent, 11 978 hits, and 7372 misses [31 ). Note Added in Proof- It has been brought to our attention that a similar procedure was recently used to transmit without error the word "peace" in International Morse Code (J. C. Carpenter, "Toward the effective utilization of enhanced weak-signal ESP effects," presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, New York, NY, Jan. 27, 1975). The characteristics of such a channel can be specified in accordance with the precepts of communication theory. The bit rate associated with the information channel is calculated from (301 R = H(x) - Hy(x) where H(x) is the uncertainty of the source message containing symbols with a priori probability pi: 2 H(x) Pi 1092 Pi (2) and Hy W is the conditional entropy based on the a posteriori probabilities that a received signal was actually transmitted: 311ecently, some of the early Soal experiments have been criticized 1161. However, his long-distance experiments cited here were judged 2 in a double-blind fashion of the type that escaped the criticism of the Hy W Z P U, j) 1092 Pi U) - (3) early experi J__1 W&roved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789RO'03100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 0789ROO3100110001-5 331 Rk-0 RMPP PUtHOFF AND TARG: S PERCEPTUAL CHANNEL FOR INFORMAI end (correct). An Organized research@ so-called psychic airport building irit functioning began also was drawn, and shown to have a large roughly in the J. Thomson, Sir Oliver rectangular overhang time of Lodge, and (correct). The traveler had taken an unplanned Sir William Crookes,of whom took part in one-day side trip all the founding of to an offshore island and at the time the Society for @! Research (SPR) in of the experiment Psychjca 1882 in England. had just disembarked from a plane at a small Crookes, for #rried out his principal island airport example, investigations as described by the subject 4000 km away. The with D. D. Home,otsman who grew up sole discrepancy a Sc in America and was that the subject's drawing showed a returned to England05 [3 1. According Quonset-hut type in 1 to the notebooks of building in place of the rectangular structure. and published f Crookes, Home had reports o demonstrated The above description the ability to @cts to move without was chosen as an cause obj touching them. example to illustrate . We should note g that, Home, unlike a major point observed in p" most subjects, a number of times throughout the program to be described. worked only in fand spoke out in the Contrary to what the ligh strongest pos- may be expected, a subject's description sible terms against@arkened seance rooms does not necessarily the d popular at the portray what may reasonably be expected time (5 1. i to be correct (an educated or "safe" guess), but often Sir William Crookesa pioneer in the study runs counter even of electrical to the subject's own expectations. discharge in the development of gases anc vacuum tubes, We wish to stress some types of @ bear his name. Although again that a result which Tti everything such as the above is not unusual. The remaining Crookes said on beams and plasmas submissions in about ele was accepted, this experiment pro- vided further examples nothing he said e achievements of D. of excellent correspondences about r D. Home ever between l target and response. achieved that any of his colleagues, (A target period status. M who had not of poolside relaxation was identified; observed the a drive through experimenr@ a tropical forest with Home, stated at the base of publicly that they a truncated volcano thought Crookes was described as had be@n deceived, a drive through to which Crookes a jungle angily below a large bare responded: table mountain; a hotel-room target descrip- tion, including such details as rug color, was correct; and so on.) So as to determine Will not my critics whether such matches giNT credit were simply for some amount of common sense? Do they fortuitous-that not irnaoe that is, could reasonably the obvious be expected on precautions, the basis which occur to them as soon las they sit down to pick holes in my of chance alone-Dr. experiments, Puthoff was asked have occ=Jed after he had returned to me also in the course of my.pro- to blind match the longed and patient twelve descriptions in%e4tigation? to his seven target The answer to this, as to all locations. On the other objections basis of this conservative is, pro it to evaluation proce- be an error, by showing where @ the error lies, dure, which vastly or if a t underestimates ck, by showing the statistical how the trick significance is per- formed. Try the experi ent fully and fairly. If then fraud be m of the individual found, expose a truth, proclaim it. descriptions, five it; if it This is the only correct matches were ob- tained. 'his number scientific procedure,it is that I propose of matches is significant ar: steadily to pursue at p - 0.02 by 2 (3). exact binomial calculation. The observation In' the United scientific interest of such unexpectedly States@ in the paranormal high-quality descrip- tions early in our was centered versities. In 1912, program led to in the un@ John Coover [61 a large-scale study of the phenomenon at SRI e under secure double-blind was established dowed Chair of Psychical conditions (i.e., in the e@ Research at target unknown to Stanford University.the 1920's, Harvard experimenters as Inj University set up well as subjects), with independent random research programsGeorge Estabrooks and target selection with L. T. Troland and blind judging. ' The results, presented [7), (8). It framework that, in in Sections III was in t 1930, William and IV, provide @ strong evi- dence for the robustness McDougall invited. B. Rhine and Dr. of this phenomenon Dr. f Louisa Rhine to whereby a human perceptual join the Psychologyartment at Duke University modality of extreme Pe0 (9). For sensitivity can detect complex remote stimuli. more than 30 ficant work was carried years, sigrif out at Rhine's Duke University tory. To examine the Labora existence of 11. BACKGROUND paranormal perception,1he used the now-famous ESP cards Although we are containing a nted picture of a star, approaching the boldly p@ cross, square, study of these phenomena as physicists, it circle, or wavy ubjects were asked is not yet possible lines. S to name the order to separate ourselves entirely from the language of these cards ly shuffled deck of of the nineteenth in a fre I twenty-five such century when'the t labora- cards. To test tory study of the for tele hy, an experimenter paranormal was would look at begun. C6nsequently, l we continue to use the cards one and a subject suitably terms such as "paranormal," at a timeI' separated from "telepathy," and the sender wouldt to determine which the like. However, attem card was being we intend only to indicate a process of information transfer viewed. under conditions Dr tt c generally accepted Rhi G as J P B i t d t h J h D secure against such . e transfer and with , ra no prejudice or ne arr occult . ou oget . er wit r. . assumptions as to thousands of ts of this type under the mechanisms experime@ widely varying involved. As in any other conditions[IO]. tistical results from scientific pursuit, The sti these experiments the purpose is to collect the observables that result from experiments indicated that viduals did indeed and to try to determine some indi possess a paranor- the functional relationships between mal perceptual n that it was possible these observables ability I to obtain an and the laws of arbitrarily highf improbability by physics degree @ continued testing as they are currently I understood. of a gifted subject. 2Th The work of Rhines been challenged on 1 a many grounds, a probability of ations of improper a correct daily ' handling of statis- match by chance however inc -luding for any given acci s transcript is p = +. Therefore, the probability of at least five correct matches by chance @r, and fraud. ith regard to the statistics, out of twelve tries ' l the general can be calculated tics, err from ve1q,Fo 7 is U-12 .1 is to be found Ap=pr 2001/03/07: Cliffg @, tftf fe- _qtAk' " ' I ' b than statistical fy R 0 02 T . grounds (I I]. dto the accusations . With of fraud, the , rg ar @77 330 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, MARCH 1@76 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 -0 ac,q /:.;z J - A?0 r A/V pl@ Fig. 1. Airpor-t in San Andres, Colombia, used as remote-viewing target, along with sketch produced by subject in California. in the literature as autoscopy (in the medical literature); exteri- orization or disassociation (psychological literature); simple clairvoyance, traveling clairvoyance, or out-of-body experience (parapsychological literature); or astral projection (occult liter- ature), We choose the term "remote viewing" as a neutral descriptive term free from prior associations and bias as to mechanisms. The development at SRI of a successful experimental pro- cedure to elicit thLi capability has evolved to the point where persons such as visiting government scientists and contract monitors, with no previous exposure to such concepts, have learned to perform well; and subjects who have trained over a one-year period have performed excellently under a variety of experimental conditions. Our accumulated data thus indicate that both specially selected and unselected persons can be assisted in developing remote perceptual abilities up to a level of useful information transfer. In experiments of this type, we have three principal findings. First, we have established that it is possible to obtain signifi- cant amounts of accurate descriptive information about remote locations. Second, an increase in the distance from a few meters up to 4000 km separating the subject from the scene to be perceived does not in any apparent way degrade the quality or accuracy of perception. Finallyj the use of Faraday cage electrical shielding does not prevent high-quality descrip- tions from being obtained. To build a coherent theory for the explanation of these phenomena,. it is necessary to have a clear understanding of than fifty experiments with nine subjects carried out in our own laborator@, which represent a sufficiently stable data base to permit testing of various hypotheses concerning the func- tioning of this channel. Finally, in Section V, we indicate those areas of physics and information theory that appear to be relevant to an understanding of certain aspects of the phenomena. First, however, we present an illustrative example generated in an early pilot experiment. As will be clear from our later discussion, this is not a "best-ever" example, but rather a typical sample of the level of proficiency that can be reached and that we have come to expect in our research. Three subjects participated in a long-distance experiment focusing on a spries of targets in Costa Rica. These subjects said they had never been to Costa Rica. In this experiment, one of the experimenters (Dr. Puthoff ) spent ten days traveling through Costa Rica on a combination business/pleasure trip. This information was all that was known to the subjects about the traveler's itinerary. The experiment called for Dr. Puthoff to keep a detailed record of his location and activities, includ- ing photographs of each of seven target days at 1330 PDT. A total of twelve daily descriptions were collected before the traveler's return: six responses from one subject, five from another, and one from a third. The third subject who submitted the single response supplied a drawing for a day in the middle of the series. (The subject's response, together with the photographs taken at the site, are shown in Fig. 1). Although Costa Rica is a mountainous what constitutes the phenomena. In this paper, we first briefly country, the subject unexpectedly perceived the traveler at a summarize previous efforts in this field in Section Il. We then beach and ocean setting. With some misgiving, he described an present 'rW0Fft9aaFbFRb1L11F8W 2b0T-163Mf7nPClA4REYP9S0W89R0W4 G(Dji"Mij@ the ocean at the Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789RQ03100110001-5 329 PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, VOL. 64, NO. 3, MARCH 1976 A Perceptual Channel for InformOtion Transfer 1 over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research', HAROLD E. PUTHOFF, MEMBER, IEEE, AND RUSSELL TARG, SENIOR MEMBER, IEEE Absiract-For more than 100 years, scientists have attempted to determine the truth or falsity of claims for the existence of a perceptual channel whereby certain individuals are able to perceive and describe remote data not presented to any known sense. This paper presents an outline of the history of scientific inquiry into such so-called paranor- mal perception and surveys the current state of the art in parapsycho- logical research in the United States and abroad. The nature of this perceptual channel is examined in a series of experiments carried out in the Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of Stanford Research institute. The perceptual modality most extensively investigated is the ability of both experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteers to view, by innate mental processes, remote geographical or technical targets including buildings, roads, and laboratory apparatus- The ac- cumulated data indicate that the phenomenon is not a sensitive func, tion of distance, and Faraday cage shielding does not in any apparent way degrade the quality and accuracy of perception. On the basis of this research. some areas of physics are suggested from which a descrip- tion or explanation of the phenomenon could be forthcoming. 1. INTRODUCTION "IT IS THE PROVINCE of natural science to investigate nature, impartially and without prejudice" [ 11. Nowhere in scientific inquiry has this dictum met as great a chal- lenge as in the area of so-called extrasensory perception (ESP), the detection of remote stimuli not mediated by the usual sensory processes. Such phenomena, although under scientific consideration for over a century, have historically been fraught with unreliability and controversy, and validation of the phe- nomena by accepted scientific methodology has been slow in coming. Even so, a recent survey conducted by the British publication Vew Scientist revealed that 67 percent of nearly 1500 responding readers (the majority of whom are working scientists and technologists) considered ESP to be an estab- lished fact or a likely possibility, and 88 percent held the investigation of ESP to be a legitimate scientific undertaking [2]. A review of the literature reveals that although experiments by reputable researchers yielding positive restilts were begun over a century ago (e.g., Sir William Crookes' study of D. D. Home, 1860's) (31, many consider the study of these phe- nomena as only recently emerging from the realm of quasi- science. One reason for this is that, despite experimental results, no satisfactory theoretical construct had been advanced to correlate data or to predict new experimental outcomes. Consequently, the area in question remained for a long time in the recipe stage reminiscent of electrodynamics before the unification brought abo t by the work of Ampere, Faraday, and Maxwell. Since the early work, however, we have seen the development of information theory, quantum theory, and neuro physiological rese ch, and these disciplines provide powerful conceptual tools that appear to bear directly on the issue. In fact, several physicists (Section V) are now of the opinion that these phenomena are not at all inconsistent with the framework of mode@n physics: the often-held view that I . . . observations of this type are a priori incompatible with known laws is erroneous in that such a concept is based on the naive 'realism prevalent before :he development of quantum theory. In the emerging view, it is accepted that research in this area can be conducted so as t uncover not just a catalog of inter- esting events, but rather patterns of cause-effect relationships of the type that lend t emselves to analysis and hypothesis in the forms with whi h we are familiar in the physical sciences. One hypothes is that information transfer under conditions of sensory ! ie Ing 1 diated by extremely low-frequency (ELF) ele -tromagnetic waves, a proposal that does -not seem to be n led out by any obvious physical or --biological facts. Furth @r, the development of information theory makes it possib e to characterize and quantify the performance of a communications channel regardless of the underlying mechanism. For the past three ye its, we have had a program in the Electronics and Bioengneering Laboratory of the Stan- ford Research Institute (SRI) to investigate those facets of human perception that appear to fall outside the range of well- understood perceptual/processing capabilities. Of particular interest is a human info rmation-accessing capability that we call "remote viewing. This phenomenon pertains to the ability of certain individ Is to access and describe, by means of mental processes, information sources blocked from ordi- nary perception, and generally accepted as secure against such access. i In particular, the phei @omenori we have investigated most extensively is the ability A a subject to view remote geograph- ical locations up to seve -al thousand kilometers distant from his physical location (given only a known person on whom to target).' We have ca d out more than fifty experiments under controlled laboratory conditions with several individuals whose remote pereepttu I abilities have been developed suf- ficiently to allow them a: times to describe correctiy-often in great detail-geographica or technical material such as build- ings, roads, lab oratory ap aratus, and the Like. Manuscript received July 25, 1975; revised November 7, 1975. Th submission of this paper was encouraged after review of an advanc: As observed in the Iabo atory, the basic phenomenon appears proposal. This work was supported by the Foundation for Parasensory to cover a range of subje tive experiences variously referred to Investigation and the Parapsychology Foundation, New York, NY; the Institute of lJoetic S i I cienc alo Alto, CA; and nauticsandS/APPLOI g,goUnK6biA"49()Ia&SYO'~~o-CIA-RDP96-00789RP03100110201-5 The authors are with the Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory, 'Our initial work in this area was reporte in Ndfure 14 1, and re- Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, CA 9402S. printed in the IEEE Comm4 Soc. Newsletter, vol. 13, Jan. 197S. qt,cRo & 'o.ioqyu!vjj 6 9!@ -'a' W '0 d ,va.uoyv.ioqv7 YJ-Ivgv-lg MIS(JI401134sd -167, '19 'Oojorpf-v4v.,vj.fo Imunof -i:);)rqns limoilcla.-wa ur ipim I'mi xmild -wo:) 72 ul;):)Ut!WlojlpdIS3 iwil-Iraj pup UoIIIU.VoZ),?Id '(LR61) *)'NO.I.NONOH Imunorgla Rov, > -0306 (if'Parap.@yAtilaAry The 0 -1 3' LILESS < I'- I , R. 11-L (119711. 'Experhilenis oil ps;i self-irailling Willi Dr. Schmidt's (D pre-cognitive apparatus.Journal of the Socielyfor Psychical Research, 46, 15- CL -n 0HONORTON, C. (1972). Reported frequency of dream recall and ESP Journal -1 of the A merican Society for Psychical Research. 66, 369-374. XOliNSON, NI., & NORDBI-Ck, B.'(1972). Viriailon in dic scoriijg hellavior ofa psychic" sul)ject. Journal of Parap.@vrholo@p, 36, 122-132. ID .1 A volt I -y 0) K ELL Y, E. E. & K A NTI I A N I A N 1, 11. K - (1972). A s it bjecl's efl')rl s Iowa 11 lial Cn control. Journal of Parapsychology, 36, 185-197. (D CIIMIDT, 11, & PANTAS, L. (1972). Psi tests Willi Internally different machines. a Journal of Parapiychology, 36, 222-232. Q a:RAiG, .1. G. (1973). 'I'll(- effi-.(i dif contingency oil prccogiiifioii lit lit(- ral. a Research lit Barapsychology 1972, 154-156. !_'JREVKIAN, 4 a J. A. (1973).The psi quiz: A new ESP test. Research 'it Parap,%ychology 4 1972, 132-13,1. - -Awri.Ey, B. (1974). Confirmation of the sniall-rodent precognition work..1aurlial 0 of Parapsychology, 38, 238-239. @:HARRIS, S., & TERRY, J. (1974). Precognition in a water-deprived Wistar rat. @u journal of Parapsychology, 38, 239. CXANDALL, J. L. (1974). An extended series of ESP and PK tests Willi three _U English schoolboys. journal of the Socielyfor Psychical Research, 47,485-494. aEYSENCK, H. J. (1975). Precognition in rats.Journal of Parap.@Vcholqgy, 39, 222- 6 227. !@iARALDSSON, L. (1975). Reported dream recall, precognitive dreams, and ESE 00 Research in Parapsychology .1974, 47-48. VONORTON, C., RAMSFY, NI., & CABIBBO, C. (1975). Experimenter effects in extrasensory perception.jutirual ofilie American Societyfor Psychical Research, 69, 135-149. '@ANTIIAMANI, H., & RAO, 1-1. 1-1. (1975). Response tendencies and stimulus 2 a structure. Journal of Parapsychology, 39, 97-105. :IEVIN..). A. 0975). A scrivs i)fpsi expvrillivills Willi g(.1-hils.fintinfli ofilm-11- psycholok-y. 39. 363-365. dVERRY,J. G, & HARRIS, S. A. (1975). Precogiiilion in waler-ticlirlmd rats. Research in Parapsychology 1974, 81. UhAVIS.J. W., & HAIGIIT,J. (1976). Psi experiments with rats..1,ournal of Para- piychology, 40, 54-55. JACOBS,]., & BREEDERVELL), H. (1976). Possible influences of birth order on ESP ability. Research Letter (Parapsychology Laboratory, University of' Uirechi). No. 7, 10-20. NEVILLE, R. C. (1976). Soineaspecis ofprecognition testing. Research in Para- piychulugy 1975, 29-31. A Alrtei-Analjk5' qff'orred-Choice Prer(Wn' *on ExPerhnenl,@ 307 IS III HARAI.D.S.SON, E. (1977). ESPand the defense mechanism test (DMT): A further validation. Europeanjournal of Parapsychology, 2, 104-114. SARGENT, C. L. (1977). An experiment involving a novel precognition task. Journal of Parapsychology, 41, 275-293. BIERMAN, D. J. (1978). Testing the "advanced Wave" hypothesis: An attempted replication. Europeanjounial of'I'arapsychology, 2, 206-212. BRAUD, W. (1979). Project Chicken Little: A precognition experiment involving the SKYLAB spac'e station. Europeanjournal ol'I'arapsychology, 3, 149-165. HARALDSSON, E., & JOHNSON, M. (1979). ESP and the defense mechanism test (DMT) Icelandic study No. III: A case of the experimenter effect? European Joumal of Parapsychology, 3, 11-20. O'BRIEN, of dw checker cfl@cl. Research in Para- J. T. (1979). Ali examination psychology 1978, 153-155. CLEMENS, D. B., & PHILW-s, D. T. (1980). Further studi s of precognition in le I nilce. Research tit larapsychology 1979, 156. HARALDSSON, E. (1980). Scoring in a precognition test as a function of the frequency of reading on psychical phenomena and belief in ESP. Research Leiter (Parapsychology Laboratory, University of Utrecht), No. 10, 1-8. SARGENT, C., & HARLEY, T. A. (1981). Three studies using a psi-predictive trait variable questionnaire. Journal of Parapsychology, 45, 199-214. WINKELMAN, M. (1981). The effect of formal education on extrasensory abil- ities: The Ozolco study@jourital of Parapsychology, 45, 321-336. NASII, C. B. (1982). ESP ofpresent and future Eargets.Journal of the Societyfor Psychical Research, 51, 374-377. THALBOURNE, NI., BELOFF, J., & DELANOY, D. (1982). A test. for the "extra- verted sheep versus introverted goats" hypothesis. Research in Parapsychology 1981, 155-156. CRANDALL, J. E., & HITE, D. D. (1983). Psi-missing and displacement: Evidence ibr improperly focused psi?journal of theAnierican Sociayfor Psychical.Re- I search, 77, 209-228. S(:ii%vAR-vz. S. A., & R.J. (1983). The Nfobitv', 111si-Q test: Prclilli- illary findings. Research in Parapsychology 1982, 103-105. .101INSON, M., & IIARAI.I)SSON, 1-*,. (1984). The Delcinse mechanism 71@sl as ; as a predictor of'ESP scores: Icelandic studies I.V and V.Journal oj'Parapsy(ho@@,, 48, 185-200. TEDDER, W. (1984). Computer-based long-distance ESP: All exploratory ex- arnination (RB/PS). Research in Parapsychology 1983, 100- 101. HESFLTINE, G. L. (1985). PK success during structured and nonstructured RNG operadon.journal if Farapsychalo@y, 49, 155- 10. HARALDSSON, E., &JOIINSON, m. (wm).The Defiense Mechanism Test (DMT) . . @ I "... 1: , -VVIVI).1 X@ . I I '. 1' 1-1 1 .1, . 0 (D CL -n 0 _% X (D a) 0 CD a a CD W- a -4 -0 > I X C) _U (0 m 6 4 00 (D 301 TheJournal of Pal'OsTcholo.0 FREENIAN.j. (1964). A precognition test with ;I high-school science club.Journal ty Barap.%ythology, 28, 21-1-221. FRUNIAN, J., & NIEUSEN, W (1964). Precognition score deviations its related to anxiety levels. Journal of Parapsychology, 28, 239-249. S>11MEIDLER, G. (1964). An experiment on precognitive clairvoyance: Part 1. The main results. Journal of Parapsychology, 28,* 1- 14. REENIAN, j. A. (1965). Diflierential response of' the sexes to conlrasling ar- 0 rangements ofESP target material. journal &J'J'arapsychology, 29, 251-258. (mis, K., & FAHLER, J. (1965). Space and time variables in ESP Journal of the )a: Ainerican Soc'elyfor Psychical Research, 59, 130-145. n FOHLER,J., & OS:S, K. (1966). Checking for awareness of hits in a precognition experiment with hypnotized subjects. Journal of the Ainerican Society for Psychical Research, 60, 340-346. EMAN, J. A. (1966). Sex differences and target arrangement: High-school a) booklet tests of precognition.Journal of Parapsychology, 30, 227-235. IdA ;ERS, D. P (1966). Negative and positive afl@ct and ESPIAIII-Score variance. W( " Journal of Parapsychology, 30, 151-159. FOGERS, D. R, & CARPEN-IER,.J. C. (1966). The decline ol'variance of ESP C) , I scores within a testing session.Journal of Parapsychology, 30, 141-150. SIER, B1 (1967). A correspondence ESP experiment with high-I.Q. subjects. (_1_) Jout nal oJ 114tali.%yhology, 31, 1-13 - 1-1 H. fQzisy, 1). E. (1967). Subject attitude ;Ind score variance in ESP tests.Journal of Parapsychology, 31, 43-50. IM/By, D. E. (1967). Precognition and a test of sensory perception. Journal of > Ta rapsychology, 31, 13 5 - 14 2. EMAN, J. A. (1967). Sex difl@rences, target arrangement, and primary men- tal abilities. Journal of Parapsychology, 31, 271-279. MNORTON, C. (1967). Creativity Ind precognition scoring levelJournal of to a) Parapsychology, 31, 29-42. (6RPENTER, J. C. (1968). Two related studies on mood and precognition run- CD score variance.Journal of Parapsychology, 32, 75-89. -4 WVAL, P, & MONTREDON, E. (1968). ESP experiments with mice. Journal of Parapsychology, 32, 153-166. possible -effec4--of-t-he--,c-hec-ke-ui-n----- 19T CD precognition tests.Journal of Parap@ychology, 32, 167-175. Ip.wEENIAN,J. A. (1968). Sex differences and primary mental abilities in a group CD precognition test. Journal of Parapsychology, 32, 176-182. 2sti, C. S., & NASH, C. B. (1968). Effect of target selection, field dependence, CD and body concept on ESP performance. Journal of Parapsychology, 32, 248- C) 257. ]RINE, L. E. (1968). Note on an informal group test of ESP. Journal of Para- Zn psychology, 32, 47-53. RYZL, M. (1968). Precognition scoring and attitude toward ESP Journal of Para- psychology, 32, 1-8. Ryzi-, M. (1968). Precognition scoring and attitude. Journal offlarapsychology, 32, 183-189. ,I of Forcell-choice Precognition I-I'X/)(' rinn, 11 Is 305 CARPENTER, .1. C. (1969). Further study on ,I mood adjective check list and 33', 48-56. ESP 11111-scOre vaFiance.journal (Y Parapsychology, DUVAL, P, & MONTREDON, E. (1969). Precognition in mice: A confirmation. Journal of Parapsychology, 33, 71-72. FREEMAN, ].A. (1969). The psi-differential effect > in a precognition test. journal of Parapsychology, 33, 206-212. FREENIAN,J. A. (1969). A precognition experimen(widiscience teachers.Journal 0 of Parapsychology, 33, 307-310. JOHNSON, M. (1969). Attitude and target differences(D in a group precognition CL test. Journal of Parapsychology, 33, 324-325. -n MONTREDON, E., & RoBINSON, A. (1969). Further precognition0 work with mice. Journal of Parapsychology, 33, 162-163. ;U SCHNIii)-r, H. (1969). Precognition of a quantum (D process. Journal of FarapsY- chology, 33, 99-108. F BENDER, H. (1970). Differential scoring of an outstanding0 subject on GESP and W clan-voyance.journal of'Parapsychology, 34, 272-273.(D FREENIAN,.I. A. (1970). Sex differences in ESP response" as shown by the Free- C) Man piCtUre-figure test. Journal of Parapsychology,C) 34, 37-46. FREEMAN, J. A. (1970). Ten-page booklet tests with _"_ elementary-school children. C) Jum-nal If Parap.@Ivholqgy. 34, 192-196. W FRELNIAN,J. (1970). Shift in scoring direction withjunior-high-schoolCD students: A suminary. Journal of Barapsychology, 34, 275. -4 . . FREEMAN, J. A. (1970). Mood, personality, and attitude0 in precognition tests. Journal of Parapsychology, 34, 322. > HARALDS.SON, E. (1970). Subject selection in a machine1 precognition test.jounial of Parapsychology, 34, 182-191. ;U 0 HARALDSSON, E. (1970). Precognition of a quantum T process: A modified rep- licafion. Journal ofBarapsychology, 34, 329-330. to NiFUSEN, W (1970). Relationships between precognitionT scoring level-and CD mood. Journal of Parapsychology, 34, 93 - 116. Q S(:t-ihjn)-r, H. (1970). Precognition test with -4 a high-school group. Jounial of. 00 Parapsychology, 34, 70. to -AKLQV-F--J. & BATE-D.11971)--Anattew-p-Lio--reoLca-Le-th-e--Schniidt-;U findings. .. Or Journal of the Socielyfor Psychical Research, 46, CD 21-31. W HONOWFON, C. (1971). Automated forced-choice precognitionL tests with a "sen- sitive."Journal of the Anterican Societyfor PsychicalCD Research, 65, 476-481. CD MITCHEI.L, E. D. (1971). An ESP test from Apollo 14.Journal of Parapsychology, 35,89-107. CD S(:Hhnn-r, H., & PANTAS, L. (1971). Psi tests with CD psychologically equivalent CD conditions and internally different machines.JournalL of Parapsychology, 35, 326-327. STANFORD, R. G. (1971). Extrasensory effects upon "memory." journal of the American Socielyfor Ps),chical Research, 64, 161-186. ' STEILBERG, B , J. (1971). Investigation of' the paranormal gifts of the Dutch sensitive Lida T.Joumal (f Parapsychology, 35, 219-225. > -002 lbrJoLmial (d I'map.%yi-hology $,14NV. 1. V. ik LFWUS. '1" (1978). OnihVi-% M %iah.%firal daia. New `l'ork: john Wiley & Sons. Owm.Ev. K. A. (1965). Stali411'al theory Uild jnelhodolt@ Journal of Barapsychology, 46, 321-336. @J)Sk NTHAL, R. (1984). Afela-analylic proceduresfor social research. Beverly Hills, 0 CA: Sage. EERING COWIFITEEOFTHE PHYSICIANs'HEAFF11 STLII)y RESEAR(31 GROUI.. 0) (1988). PI-ChIllinal-Y I-CI)OVI: Findings front [lie aspirin component of' the ongoing Physicians' Health Sludy@ New E'tiglandjouinal ty'Aledicine, 318, CD 262-264. 4 GQ-Enim;, T. D. (1959). Publication decisions and their possible effects ()It inferences drawn from tests of significance-or vice versa. Journal of the (D American Stalimical Association, 54, 30-34. 8ILKIN%0N. Evaustou. If.: SY!flAL Q Q C11RONOLOGICAL LISTING 01: STUDILS IN WI-A-ANALYSIS 8k KINGTON, W. (1935). Preliminary experiments in precognitive guessing.jour- Q teal of the Society for Psychical Research, 29, 86-104. RIINF, J. B. (1938). Experiments hearing on the precognition hypothesis: 1. Zn Pre-shuffling card calling. Journal ofFUrapsychology, 2, 38-54. RHINE, J. B., Siirj-H, B. M., & WOODRUFF, J. L. (1938). Experiments bearing on the precognition hypothesis: If. The role of ESP in the shuffling of cards. Journal of Przrap-@yJtology, 2, 119- 131. HUMPHREY, B. M., & PRATI-, .1. G. (1941). A comparison of' five ESP test procedures.jiturnal of Parapsychology. 5, 267-293. RHINE, J. B. (1941). Experiments bearing upon the precognition hypothesis: I 11. Mechanically selected cards. founial of Parosveholnim 5. 1 -57 A 111ria-AmIlysts q/ Foiced-UhmCe Precogwillon Lxperltnetits 303 R111NV..1. 11. (19-12). Exidence of, precognilioll ill the covarialioll of' Salience rittlos. journal 4Y Parapsychology, 6, 111 - 1-13. Ni(:()t,, .1. F,, & CARINGTON, AV (1947). Some experiments in willed die-throw- ing. Procrohngl% if1hr Societ-1,joy. PsYchical RrArarch. 48, 164- 175. THOW.Ess, R. H. (1949). A comparative study of performance in three psi tasks.journal (J'Parap.@ychology, 13, 263-273. BASTIN, E. Vl@, & GREEN, J. NJ. (1953). Some experiments in precognition. jounial (if Paiapsychology, 17, 137- 1,13. MCMAHAN, F. A., & BATES, E. K. (1954). 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(1959). A precognition experiment comparing time intervals of it few daysand one year-journal ty'llarapsycholoo, 23, 81-89. ANDERSON, M., & GREGORY, E. (1959). A two-year program of tests for clair- voyance and precognition with it class of'public school JAI pils. Joel rnal of Parapsychology, 23, 149-177. NASH, C. B. (1960). Can precognition occur diametrically? Journal ofFarapsy- chology, 24, 26-32. FREEMANJ. A. (1962). An experiment in precognition.journal OfFarapsychology, 26, 123-130. / @ RHINE, J. B. (1962). The precognition of computer numbers in a public test. Journal ofFarapsychology, 26, 244-251. Ryzi., M. (1962). Training the psi facility by hypnosisjournal of the Socielyfor Psychical Research, 41, 234-252. SANDERS, M. S. (1962). A comparison of verbal and written responses in:a precognition experiment. Journal ofFarapsychology, 26, 23-34. V . I --- 11 . I -,. 0 (D CL -n 0 -3 ;U (D F A) (1) (D Q Q Q W Q 4 . . 0 > 0 a) 6 Q 4 00 Q Q Q Q t, (YI 300 'The journal of Paral5sychology TABLE 7 IMPAUI_ OF MODERATORS IN COMBINATION > "Optinial" studies "Suboptimal" studies studies 8 9 )mbined z 6.14 -1.29 idles with p < .05 87.5% 0.0% I*an ES .055 .005 .045 .035 X t(I 5) = 2.6 1, p .0 1 (D r = .559 W (D These results are quite striking and suggest that future studies Umbining these moderators Should yield especially reliable effects. Q Q W SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Q 4 .Our meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments 2-rifirms the existence of a small but highly significant precognition Irtfect. The effect appears to be replicable; significant outcomes are ported by 40 investigators using a variety of methodological par- 6 i&lgnis and subject populations. The precognition effect is statistically very robust: it remains 6ghly significant despite elimination of studies with z scores in lite Cmilper and lower 10% of the z-score distribution and when a third Xhe remaining investigators- the major c'olntributors of precog- to studies-are eliminated. hological publication practices indicate that the precognition ef- yc act cannot plausibly be explained oil the basis ol'sclective publica- Cal n bias. Analyses of precognition effect sizes in relation to eight TV easures of research quality fail to support the hypothesis that the Iserved effect is driven to any appreciable extent by methodolog al flaws; indeed, several analyses indicate that methodologically SLI !2 &rlor studies yield stronger effects than methodologically weaker studies. Analyses of parapsychological alternatives to precognition, al- though limited to the subset of studies using random number tables, provide no support for tile hypothesis that the effect results -from A Meta-Analysis qj'Forced-Choice PrecqArnt '1Z 'on Expert 'ments 301 Jie operation of contemporaneous ESP and PK at the time of ran- lornization. Although the overall precognition effect size is small, this does -lot imply that it has no practical consequences.> It is, for example, A the same order of magnitude as effect sizes-a leading to the early erniniation ofseveral major medical research studies. In 1981, the 14ational Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute 0 discontinued its study of )ropranolol because the results were so favorable(D to the propranolol reatinent that it would be unethical to continueCL placebo treatment - n Kolata, 1981); the effect size was 0.04. More0 recently, The Steering omi-nittee of the Physicians' Health Study Research Group (1988), X n a widely publicized report, terminated its (D study of the effects of ispirin in the prevention of heart attacks for the same reason. The ispirin group suffered significantly fewer heart attacks than a pla- W :ebo control group; the associated effect (D size was 0.03. The most important outcome of' the meta-analysisM is the identi- Q icaLlon of' several moderating variables thatQ appeal- to covary sys- eniatically xvith precognition performance. The largest effects are Q ibserved III Studies using subjects selected W oil the basis of prior test wr[Ormance, who are tested Individually, and Q who receive trial-by- -4 ' rial feedback. The outcomes of studles combining these factors con- rast sharply with the null outcomes associated0 with the combination if group testing, unselected subjects, and > no feedback of results. Be- ause the two groups of studies were conducted by a subset of the arne investigators, it is unlikely that the 0 observed difference in per- ormance is due to experimenter effects. Indeed,_U these outcomes to inderscore the importance of carefully examining differences in I I ubject populations, test setting, and so forth,Q before resorting to Q acile "explanations" based on psi-mediated -4 experimenter effects or . 00 he "elusiveness of psi." to The Identification of these moderating variables has important -nplications for our understanding of the Q phenomena and pr9vides W clear direction for future research. The existenceL of moderating arlables indicates that the precognition effectQ is not merely an Q nexplained departure from a theoretical chance_L baseline, but _L adier is all effect that covaries with factorsQ known to influence lore familiar aspects of human performance. Q It should now be pos- - Q ble lo CXPIOit these IllodCrafing factors _L to increase tile magnitude nd reliability of precognition effects in 61 new studies. REFERENCES Kk.Rs, C. (1987). Parapsychology is science, but its findings are inconclusive. Behaviorala'nd Brain Sciences, 10, 566-568. > 0 < (D -n 0 Moliths (D Weeks 17 (D 15 Q Hours 35 Minutes 0 Seconds 24) > Millisec 3 1 U (0 6 4 OD to Mean effect size ;U Flaire 5. F11'eci size by precogilitioli iliterval, with 95% confidence limits. 144 studies. =er, is often imprecise. Our analysis of the relationship between gecognitive ES and time interval is thereftwe limited to seven broad Mherval categories: milliseconds, seconds, minutes, hours, days, =eks, and months. (Effect sizes by precognition interval are dis- played in Figure 5.) Although it is confounded widi degree of' feedback, there is a significant decline in precognition ES over increasing temporal dis- tance: r(I 42) = -. 199, p = .0 17, two-tailed. The largest effects oc- cur over the millisecond interval: N = 31 studies, combined z = 6.03, mean ES 0.045, SD .073. The smallest effects occur over !1-11.1 1 1 -1. 1 FT:,r A Atchl-AllalYst's (!I' Forced-Chm(-e PrecognitiOn E'xi)rriments 299 selecled stil)'ecls: )-(122) = -.235, p = .009, two-lailed. S111dies with SCICCIed SIII)ICUS show it nonSigilifiCant positive relifflOnShip between ES and finic Interval: r(18) = .077, p = .745, Iwo-talled. Although LI1C diff'crencc between these two Correlations is not significant (Z 1.24), this suggests that the origin of the decline over time may be motivational rather than the result of soine Intrinsic physical bound- ary condition. The relationship between precognition ES and feed- back also supports this conjecture. Nevertheless, any findilIg SLIg- I gesting polenlial boundary conditions on the phenomenon should be vigorously pursued. Influence of Moderating Variables in Combination The above analyses examine the impact of each moderating var iable in isolation. In this final set ofanalyses, we explore theirJoint influence ()It precognition performance. For this I)Urpose, we iden Lit" two Subgroups Of Studies. One subgroup is characterized by the L:sy of' selected stil)ects tested Individually with inal-by-trial feed 1 back. We refer to this as the Ophinal group (N = 8 studies). The second group is characterized by the use of- unselected sill)'ects tested In gFoul)S WILI) Ito feedbilck. We refer to this its (lie Suboplimal group (N = 9 studies). The Opt*nlal studies are contributed by four independent in ves- tigators and the Suboptimal studies are contributed by two of the same four investigators. All of the Optimal studies involve short pre- cognition time intervals (millisecond interval); the Suboptimal stud- Les involve longer intervals (intervals of weeks or months). All of tHe Optimal studies and 5 of the 9 Suboptimal studies use RNG meth- 11 1' odology. The two groups do not differ significantly in average sam- ple size. The mean study quality for the Optimal group is signifi- cantly higher than that of the Suboptimal studies: Optimal mean = 6.63, SD = 0.92; Suboptimal mean = 3.44, SD = 0.53; 1(10) = 8.63, p = 3.3 X 10", two-tailed. The combine([ impact of the moderating variables appears to be quite strong (Table 7). Seven of the 8 Optimal studies (87.5%) are independently significant at the 5% level, whereas none of the Sub- optimal studies are statistically significant. All four investigators con- tributinff soidieq tn tfie Ontim-0 0 (D -n 0 ;U CD (D A) (n (D C@ C@ C@ C@ -4 0 > 10 _U (0 6 4 00 to ;U a C@ a. C@ C) 296 TheJournal of Parapsychology A Aleta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 297 TABLE 6 TABLE 5 FEEDBACK RECEIVED BY SUBJECTS IND IVIDUAL VERSUS GROUP TFsTING Feedback of Results Individual Group None Delayed Run scoreTrial-by-trial Pialtudies 97 105 N sitidies 15 21 21 47 (;jllbilled fi.61 1.29 Combined z -1.30 2.11 4.74 6.98 Z SlUdies with 30% 19% Studies with p 0.0% 19.0% 33.3% 42.6% p < .05 < .05 rn Nban ES .021 .004 Mean ES -.001 .009 .023 .035 SDI, .060 .066 SD,, .028 .036 .048 .072 X 1 (200) 1.81), p = .03 selected subjects: 1(27) = 1.51, p = .142, two-tailed. This result it aWears to reflect a general tendency toward increased rigor and 1,18re detailed reporting in studies with selected subjects. _L iaividual Versus Group Testing W Q 4 Subjects were tested ill gi-OUI)S, 111diVidUldly, Or thl'OUgh the Illail. S ' dies 'in hich subjects were tested individually by an experimen- ku w I. have a significantly larger mean ES than studies involving group IFsti ng (Table 5). ;uThe i test of' the difference is equivalent to it point-hiscrial Cor- 9- tion of .132, favoring individual testing. Of the studies with still- jgts tested individually, 30% are significant at the 5% level. 6 The methodological quality of studies with subjects tested indi- @Cmually significantly higher than that of studies involving group V71, 1 1 testing: 4137) = 3.08, p = .003, two-tailed. This result is consistent h the conjecture that group experiments are frequently con .-A .___ l_ __. -A ... Vwtiiy in an afternoon without the preparation and planning that gg into a study with individual subjects that may be conducted over Aaeriod of weeks or months. Thirty-five studies were conducted through the mail. In these &dies, subjects completed the task at their leisure and mailed their asponses to the investigator. These correspondence Studies yield tcomes similar to those involving individual testing. Tile corn ined z score is 2.66, with a mean ES of' 0.018 (SD = .082). Ten P correspondence studies (25.7%) are significant at the 5% level. Eleven studies are unclassifiable with regard to experimental set- ting Feedback A significant positive relationship exists between the degree of feedback subjects receive about their performance and precognitive effect size (Table 6). Subject feedback information is available for 104 studies. These studies fall into four feedback categories: no feedback, @lelayed feedback (usually notification by mail), run-score feedback, and trial-by-trial feedback. We gave these categories numerical values between 0 and 3. Precognition effect size correlates .231 with feed- back level (102 df, p = .009). Of the 47 studies involving trial-by- trial feedback, 20 (42.6%) are significant at the 5% level. None of the studies without subject feedback are significant. Feedback level correlates positively though not significantly with research quality: r(102) = .173, P = .082, two-tai@led. Inadequate domization is the most plausible source of potential artifacts ill ran studies with trial-by-trial feedback. We performed a separate analy sis on the 47 studies in this rmal methods of group. Studies using fo randomization do not differ significantly in ineart w Iith informal randomization: t(15) = 0.67, p S imilarly, studies reporting randomness control froin those significantly including ES from-'those .590, two-tafled. data do not differ controls: not in ES randomness t(42) = 0.79, p = .436, two-taiied. Tinte Interval The interval between the subject's response and target selection ranges from less than one second to one year. information about the time interval is available for 144 studies. This information, h6- > :994 Pirfintrital tif Parainw-h(dogry 0 e.illy as a flinclion of, inelhod of, determining III(- enlry poull: Krils- I-Wallis one-way ANOVA by ranks: X:-(5) = 7.32, p = A98. -n Rse of Mangan's Method X S We find no significant difference in ES between studies us' ing amplex calculations of the type introduced by Mangan to fix the nclom number table entry point and those that do not use Such 4CUJaLiOnS. 1(45) 0.38, p .370, two-tailed. _J% MODERATING VARIABLES -4 The s(ability of precognition study outcomes over a 50-year Ile rad, which we described earlier, is also bad news. It shows that in tigators in this area have yet to develop sufficient understanding (Ville conditions underlying the occurrence (or detection) ofthese (6@ cts to reliably increase their magnitude. We have identified IOUF %-ajables that appear to covary systematically with precognition ES: selected versus unselecEed subjects, (2) individual versus group t&ing, (3) feedback level, and (4) time interval between subject re- s%nse and target generation. 00 The analyses use the raw study z scores and effect sizes; we IIto nd that this results In unil'ornily inore conservative estlinates of' PW .JL-b- tionships with moderating variables than when the analyses are 15" ifAed oil quality-weighted z scores and effect sizes. J% 0 Scled Versus Utuelecied Su@jecu _J% 00ur nieta-analysis identifies eight subject populations: unspeci- fiRl sul)ject populat ions, mixtures of' seve'ral different populatious, a0linals, students, children, -volunteers, experillieluer(s), and se- lected subjects. Effect size Magnitude does not vary significantly across these eight subject populations: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, X2 (7) = 10.90, p = .143. Effect sizes by subject population are displayed in Figure 4. However, studies using subjects selected on the basis of nrinr 4 Alrla-,,Inalysi.@ of Forrrd-Chwre Prec(@CmIlOn Fxprrhnent@ 295 Selected Exptr Volunteer Children Q_ sitidenis Animals mixed Unspec 25 26 31 Mean effect size Figure -1. Precognifion effec( sizc by subject population, with 95% confi- dence limits. N = 248 studies. ies with unselected subjects. The I test ofthe difference in niean.ES is equivalent to a point-biserial correlation of .198. Does this difference result from less stringent Controls in studies with selected subjects? The answer appears to be "No." The average quality of' studies with selected subjects is higher than studies using TABLE 4 SELECTED VERSUS UNSELFCTED SUBJE(AS - Selected Unselected N studies r, I * I 25 223 0 < CD CL -n 0 (D (D _J% -4 0 > 4 00 to X 0 _J% 0 0 -.% 0 .0 o 7, U1 - 0.06 0.04 -0.112 1100 0-02 0-04 11.06 0,08 0.10 'Fhe Journal of Parapsychology A Meta-AnalTsls (?f P'orced-Choice Precognition Experintents 293 targets based on indeterminate random number generators (RNGs) could be due to a causal influence on the RNG-a psychokinetic 5 (PK) effect-rather than information acquisition concerning its fu_ > ture state. In experiments with targets based on prepared> tables of 13 random numbers, the possibility exists that the experimenter or other randomizer may be the actual psi source, unconsciously0 using 7 real-time" ESP combined with PK to choose an entry (D (D point in the random number sequence that will significantly match CL the "sub- 45 ject's" responses. While the latter possibility may -n seem far-fetched, 0 0 it cannot be logically eliminated if one accepts the existing evidence for contemporaneous ESP and PK, and it has been argued 63 that it is (D less far-fetched than the alternative of "true" precognition.(D 35 F Morris (1982) discusses models of experimental precognitionA) W W 41 based on "real-time" psi alternatives and methods (D for testing "true" precognition. In general terms, these methods constrainM the selec- CD CD 31 tion of' the target sequence so as to eliminate nonprecognitiveCD psi _L interv ention. In the most common procedure, attributed to Mangan CD 8 (1955), (lice are thrown to generate it set ofininibei-sW that are math- ematically manipulated to obtain an entry point III Q Q the randoin nurn- -4 4 bet- table. This procedure IS Sufficiently complex "as to be appar- ently beyond the capacities of the human brain, thus 0 C')- ruling out PK 0. 10 -0.05 0.00 0,05 ().to because the TKer' would not know what to do even via > > ESP" (Mor- I @U ris, 1982, p. 329). ;U Mean effect size 0 Two features of' precognition study target determination0 proce- ure dures were coded to assess "real-time" psi alternatives 34ecognition to precogni- effect size in relation to study quality, with 95% con- !nce tion: method of determining random number table entry liffhs. point and N = 248 studies. 6 CD use of' Mangan's method. CD rch " -4 A " improved M significantly h durin d this f eriod li The i correla- i . et g o p s o e m nat real-time psi alternatives have not been ng 00 i bet--=n used in studies with random number generators and to ES have only been and year of publication is -.071: 1(307) 1.25, vw:F .213;Uwo-.talled. used in ;I small number of studies iny-olving-raiidoiiii7at~"nAy-hau&~-.--..;U Study -- quality ---- and year o lication are, how- f pub - r, shuffling. These analyses are therefore restricted CD posNvely to studies using Q and significantly correlated: r(246) = .282, p = 2 X 7 . W tw(@2ailecl. random number tables (N = 138). _L CD Criticoof parapsychology have long believed that evidence for Q apsycElogical Method qf Deter7nining RNT Entiy Point effects disappears as the methodological rigor in- ases. CD 'ge precognition database does not Support this belief'. CD CD The reports describe six different methods of obtainingCD CD entry. _L points in random number tables. If the study outcomes were due to !%REAL-TIME" subjects' er ALTERNATIVES reco an to TO nitive functionin a PRECOGNITION rath ternat th p l g i ve ps i g modes on the part of the experimenter or the experimenter's as- Investigators have long been aware of the possibility that precog- sistanis, there should be no difference in mean effect size across the on eflects could be modeled without assuming either time rever- various methods used to determine the entry point. Indeed, our or backward causality. For example, outcomes from studies with analysis indicates that the study effect sizes do not vary systemati- TheJournal of Parapsychology 9&en credit. No credit is given to studies in which the sarnple size .. . I Vi9either not preplanned or not addressed it) tile experimenial re- M 10i't. -n Preplanned analysis. Is the method of statistical analysis, including tPIC outcome (dependent variable) measure, preplanned? Credit is gVen to studies explicitly specifying tile form of analysis and the Mcome measure. No credit is given to those not explicitly stating ta form of the analysis or those in which the analysis is clearly post "Randomization method. Credit is given for use of random number t,@es, random number generators, and mechanical shuffiers. No c9401t is given for failure to randomize (i.e., use of "quasi-random 119111-alistic events,,) ol. for informal Inethods such its hand-slitil'ifing, d'a>casting, and drawing lots. 4Controls. Cred It is given to Studies reporting randomness control cj@cks, such as random number generator (RNG) control series and e5pirical cross-check controls. I 0?ecording. One point is allotted for atitoniated recording oftar- gQ and responses, and another for duplicate recording. a (a"hecklug. One point is allotted lot- automated checking of' niTches between target and response, and another for duplicate ciA%kIiig of hits. -4 00 Agy Quality Analysis CD a@_ach study received it quality weight between 0 and 8 (mean 3SSD = 1.8). We find no significant relationship between study (1191ty and ES: r(2,16) = .081, p = .202, iwo-tailed. This ICII(Icilcy fo*LsLudy outcomes to correlate positively with study quality has tile a comequence that tile quality-weighted z score of 6.26 Is slightly laiSr than the unweighted z of'6.02. Table 3 shows the correlations be&een effect size and each of the eight individual quality meas- UreS." The mean effect sizes by quality level are displayed graphi- cally in Figure 3. .1 The correlation between ES and study quality is also nonsignificant for the un- trimmed sample of 309 studies: r(307) = -.060, p = .289. The quality-weighted z score is 7.38: p = 2.32 x 10". However, three of the individual clualily measures are significasitly related to periormance. Conirols aod duplicate clieckim! corri+m- A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 291 TABi-F. 3 CORRELATIONS BETWE-ENEFFECT SIZE AND QUMATY MEASURES Quality measure r(246) Sample size specified in - .100 advance Preplanned analysis - .001 Randomization - .011 Controls .058 Automated recording .169 Duplicate recording .047 Automated checking .136 Duplicate checking .078 Quality Extremes Is there a tendency for extremely weak studies to show larger effects than exceptionally "good" studies? Analysis on the extremes ofthe quality ratings Indicates that this Is not the case. This analysis, based oil the untrimmed sample Of 309 Studies, uses Studies with quality ratings outside the interquartile range of' the rating distribution (median = 4, Q, = 2, Q, @ 5). There are 56 "low-quality" studies (ratings of 0-1) and 35 "high-quality" studies (ratings of 6-8). The high-quality studies have effect sizes that are not significantly lower than the low-quality studies; tile ES means are 0.017 (SD = 0.063) and 0.037 (SD 0.137), for the low- and high-quality Studies, respectively: t(82) -.92, p = .358, two- tailed. Quality Variation in Publication Sources I)recognition ES is not significantly related to source of' publica- 2 tion: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA (4). = 0.78, p .942. X However, the sources of publication @iffer significantly in study quality: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, X2 (4) = 17. 19, p = .002. This is due largely to tile lower quality of Studies published in the Journal of the Society for Psychical Research and in Research in Parapsy- chology. r I, 0 < M OL -n 0 (D CD 4) W CD CD Q L C) 4 0 > 0 a CD CD -4 00 (D Q CD W L Q Q Q CD Q 288 TheJournal (?f Parapgcholo@,y J'Am.E 2 SIGNIFICANCE LEvEL AND EFFECT SIZE FOR TRIMMED SAMPLE Z ES 1> N Ica 11 -a 0.38 0.012 51) 1.45 0.065 Lower%% confidence estimate 0.23 0.005 (D CL Combined z 6.02, p 1. 1 x 10 - -n 0 I(LS) = 2.90, 247 dj-, P = .002 it at the 5% level. The mean (investigator) ES is ).0201-SD .05). 1`4the trimmed sample, the difference in ES across investiga- ors ifnol significant: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by ranks, "(56)"- 59.34, p = .355. If investigators contributing more than hree Riclies are eliminated leaving 37 investigators, the combined 1 s stj 0 8 5.00 (p = 3.0 X 1 -7 ) and the mean ES is 0.022 (SD 056).!4gtire 2 shows the nican effect size by Investigator. 'ri'Eq, elimination ofthe outliers does not substantially affect the :011clu-sions drawn from our analysis of the database as a whole. I-here0early is a nonchance effect. In the remainder of this report, %le usaxhe trimmed sample to examine covariations in effect size ind a ;briety of methodological and other stud), features. 0 U to STUDY QUALITY CD Because target stimuli in precognition experiments are selected )nly aar the subjects' responses have been registered, precognition tuclje@co& re usually not vulnerable to sensory leakage problems. -fie pWblem of variations in research quality remains a source of ontrotsy in meta-analysis. Some meta-analysts advocate eliminat- 11 .,o quality studies whereas others recommend empirically ac- essing-1he impact of variations in quality on study outcome. Rosen- 0 'u, I lial ('4) points out that the practice of' discarding studies is 2nt to assigning them weights 'Of zero, and he recommends @'Cight"hng Study z scores in relation to ratings of research quality. C" ;tudy Quality Criteria Ideally, the assessment of study quality should be performed by @nowleclgeable specialists who are Wind to the study ou(Conles. In A Meta-Analysi's of Forced-Choice Precogwition Experiments 289 0 0 ;C)0 0 01 :0 0 L_ 0 0 0 > C" 6 0 0 0 < 0 (D @ 0 CL 1 0 0 0 -n 0 0 0 0 0 0 @00 (D > 00 0 0 0 CD 00 M 0 0 CD Q _L 0 0 CD G 0 -0.20 -0.15 -.0.10 -0.05 .0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0 > Mean effect size Figure 2. Mean effect size by investigator for trimmed sample. N 57 in- vestigators. practice, this is usually not feasible, particularly jvhen, es- CD as in the pr C) ent case, large numbers of studies are involved. For our analysis of 4 00 study quality, statistical and methodological variables are defined' to and coded in t rocedural deKCiptionsAor their absence erms of t) I -) i a--;U- --- -_ the research reports. This approach-was used in an earlier meta- p W analysis of psi ganzfeld research (Honoi-to'n, 1985), and it led to _L Study quality ratings that were generally in agreement, r(26) = .766, CD CD p = 10", with independent "flaw" ratings by an outside critic (Hy- man, 1985). CD CD One point is given (or withheld) for each of the following eight C) criteria: Specification of sample size. Does the investigator preplan the num- ber of tri@ls to be included in the study or is the study vulnerable to the possibility of optional stopping? Credit Is given to reports that explicitly'specify the sample size, Studies involving group testing, in which it is not feasible to specify the sample size precisely, are also 282-0 Thijournal ofhirap@yrholokq 0 (.I;Illxb are gcneritily belleved to he hased oil ii1clors such as dt-111sion. irra Allailty, and superstitious thinking. The concept (if precogui- tionTins counter to accepted notions of' causality and appears to confM-t with current scientific theory. Nevertheless, over the past iialf_@qntury a substantial number of experiments have been re- poriW1 claiming empirical support ('()I- tile hypoillesis of precogill- I10:1.pLibiects in Forced-cholce experiments, according to many re- I)o -t4D have correctly predicted to a statistically significant degree tile ident4y (or order) of' target StilnUll randomly selected at a later . C) little(:) 'ItIZZ-1performed it ineta-analysis of' fbi-ced-choice precognition ex- pelig-lits published III tile English-language research literature be- twem' 1935 and 1987. Four nia*or questions were addressed .1 thro!Jili this nieta-analysis: (1) Is there overall evidence For accurate iargV)identificailon (above-chalicc hitting) in experimental precog- nitioy.studies? (2) What is the magnitude of the overall precognition effe (3) Is the observed effect related to variations in methodo- lo quality thill. Could allow it more convcIlliollal cxplallalloll@ (A) )oes recognition performance vary systematically with potential I a .11,4)(1waillig vallabit..." Stith Js (1111,C]-t-11(cs ill Sill),ccI - pi'lilliallolls, S111111615 conditions, experilliellial selling, knowledge of results, all([ tinie!Zterval between SUb* I I .Ject response and target generation@ 00 DELINEATING THE DoNIAIN Q Q RetriWal of Studies L CD 112apsychological research is still academically taboo, and it is unidgy that there have been many dissertations and theses in this areacMat have escaped publication. Our retrieval ofstudies for this nieta- nalysis is therefore based on the published literature. The stud& include all forced-choice precognition experiments appeal-- ing in the peer-reviewed Engfish-language parapsychology journals: Journal of Parapsychology, journal (and Proceedings) of the Society for Psychical Research, Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Eurolkan Journal of Parapsychtdogy (ilICILI(illig tile Research Leiter of' the Utrecht University Parapsychology Laboratory), and abstracts of pecr-reviewed papers pI-CsCIIICd at Parapsychological Associaiion A Afria-Analysis (!f Forced-Cho`r Precognif*on EX111.1,11irlds lait.d. sludles using oll(CoIlIC V;11,1;11)1(.s oIII(.r Iiiall direct hitting, sit& its 1,1111-SCO re variance and displacement effecis, are included only-d'' the report provides relevant information on direct lilts (i.e., nuni* of trials, hits, and probability of a hit). Finally, we exclude studo conducted by two investigators, S. G. Soai and Walter J. Levy, who& (D work has been unreliable. fu Many published reports contain I.riore than.one experiment experimental unit. In experiments involving multiple conditio% i ificance levels and effect sizes are calculated for each conditio signi I I Oulcoine Measures Q C) Si@rnificance level. Significance levels (z scores) were calculated foo each study from the reported number of trials, hits, and probabil" 16 of' success using tile normal approximation to the binomial dlst% bution with continuity correction. Positive z scores indicate abo chance scoring, and negative z scores reflect below-chance scorin Jecl size. Because inost parapsychological experiments, partiTu ularly those in the older hierature, have use([ tile trial rather tll@g tile sub,ect as tile saillplillg Mill, wC use it IrIal-bascd estimator 6 effect. si Ize. The effect size (ES) for each study is the z score divid(!@ by the square root of the number of' trials ill tile Study.' 00 General Characteristics of the Dontain Q Q C4 We located 309 studies in 113 separate publications. These stuig ies were contributed by 62 different senior authors and were pup-1 lished over a 53-year period, between 1935 and 1987. Consideri rig the half-century time-span over which the precognition experimenim were conducted, it is not .surprising that the studies are very.diversa The database comprises nearly two million individual trials ara, more than 50,000 subjects. Study -sample sizes range -from 25 to 297,060 trials (median = 1,194). The number of subjects ranges from I to 29,706 (median = 16). The studies use a variety of meth- odologies, ranging from guessing ESP cards and other card symbols to automated random number generator experiments. The domain ClICUIDINISSCS diVCrSC Subject I)0pUlaIi0IIS: tile IIIOSI frequently used Journal of ParapsycholcWy, Vol. 53, December 1989 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 "FUTURE TELLING": A META-ANALYSIS OF FORCED-CHOICE PRECOGNITION EXPERIMENTS, 1935-1987 ISY C1 1ARLLS I 10NORTON AND DiANE C. FLRRARI ABSTRACT: We report a meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments published in the English-language parapsychological literature between 1935 and 1987. These studies involve attempts by subjects to predict the identity of target stimuli selected randomly over intervals ranging from several hundred milli- seconds to one year following the subjects' responses. We retrieved 309 studies reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million individual trials were contributed by more than 50,000 subjects. Study outcomes are assessed by overall level of sta- tistical significance and effect size. There is a small, but reliable overall effect (z = 11.41, p = 6.3 x 10-`). Thirty percent of the studies (by 40 investigators) are significant at the 5% significance level. Assessment of vulnerability to selective re- porting indicates that a ratio of 46 unreported studies averaging null results would be required for each reported study in order to reduce the overall result to nonsig- nificance. No systematic relationship was found between study outcomes and eight indices of research quality. Effect size has remained essentially constant over the survey period, whereas research quality has improved substantially. Four moder- ating variables appear to covary significantly with study outcome: Studies using subjects selected on the basis of prior testing performance show significantly larger effects than studies using unselected subjects. Subjects tested individually by an experimenter show significantly larger effects than those tested in groups. Studies in which subjects are given trial-by-trial or run-score feedback have significantly larger effects [halt those with delayed or no subject feedback. Studies with brief intervals between subjects' responses and target generation show significantly stronger effects than studies involving longer intervals. The combined impact of these moderating variables appears to be very strong. Independently significant outcomes are observed in seven of the eight studies using selected subjects, who were tested individually and received trial-by-trial feedback. Precognition refers to the noninferential prediction of future events. Anecdotal clainis of' "future telling" have Occurred through- out human history in virtually every culture and period. Today such This work was funded by SRI International and the John E. Fetzer Foundation. We Wish to thank our PRL colleague George P. Hansen, who is primarily responsible for reirieving the siudics nsed in the ineta-analysis. We are grateful to Edwin C. May, Jessica Lhis, and 10 IiVC allitIll)'1110LIS MViewers ;it SRI fiw %-altiahlc conlillents oil ;III earlier draft ofthis report. Valuable comments were also made by Ephraim Schechter and by three anonymous referees. The division of authorship responsibility is as fol- lows; HonortOll is responsible for the design of the nieta-aiialysis, definition of study coding criteria, the actual analyses, and the report itself. Ferrari coded the individual research 1-CI)OI-IS in coliStillation With H011011011 and/or Hansen. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 journal of Communication, Winter 1975 from Tests of Significance-Or Vice Versa." journal of the American Statistical 'i sociation 54, 1959, pp. 30-34. 71. Stuart, C. E. "The Effect Of Rate Of Movement in Card Matching Tests of Extr sensory Perception," journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938, pp. 171-183. 72. Stuart. C. E. 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"The Question of Sensory Cues and the Evidence." !journal of Para- psychology 1. 1937, pp. 27&-291. 54. Rhine. 1. B. "ESP Tests with Enclosed Cards." Journal of Parap4,chology 2. 038. pp. 199-216. 55. Rhine. J. B. "CommenU on 'Science and the Supernatural."' Scie ice 123, 1956. pp. 11-14. 56. Rhine. J. B. "The Experiment Should Fit the Hypothesis." Science @!23. 1956, p. 19. 57. Rhine, 1. B. Comments. Journal of Parapsychology, 1974, p. 38. 58. Rhine. J. B.. and J. G. Pratt. "A Review of the Pearce-Pratt Dista cc Series of ESP Tests." Journal of Parapsychology 18, 1954, pp. 165-177. 59. Rhine, J. B.. B. hf. Smith, and J. L. Woodruff. "Experiments B-J on the Pre. cognition Hypothesis: 11. The Role of ESP in the Shuffling of C@r rd3." journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938. pp. 119-13 1. 60. Riess, B. F. "A Case of High Scores in Card Guessing at a Distance." journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937. pp. 260-265. i 61. Shulman. R. "A Study of Card-guessing in Psychotic Subjects." Jo @rnal of Parapsy- chology 2,1938. pp. 9&-107. 62. Sinclair. U. Mental Radio, with 4 Preface by Albert Einstein. Sprinoeld, Ill.: Charles C. Thomas, 1962. (Originally published in 1930.) 1 63. Shapiro, A. "Review of ESP-A Scientific Evaluation by C. E. M. Hansel." International Journal of Clinical and Experimental Hypnosis 16, 1968, pp. 133-13 - 64. Scott, C. "G. Spencer Brown and Probability: A Critique." Jou;al of the Society for Psychical Research 39, 1958. pp. 217-234. i 65. Soal, S. G. "On 'Science and the SUPCM2tural."' Science 123, 1956 P. 9-11 66. Soal. S. G. and F. Bateman. Modern Experiments in Telepathy. ew Haven: Yale University Press, 1954. 67. Soal. S. C., and H. T. Bowden. The Mind Readers: Recent Expcrim@"ts in Telepathy. New Haven, Conn.: Vale University Press, 1954. 68. Spencer Brown. G. "Statistical Significance in Psychical Research." Wature 172, 1953, pp. 154-156. 69. Spencer Brown. G. Probability and Scientific Inference. New York: 'Longmanc Green. 1957. 70. Sterling, T. C. 'Publication Decisions and Their Possible Effects of Inference Drawn Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 1VZ5 Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Journal of Contmunicagion, Winter 1975 11. Gibson, E. P. "A Study of Comparative Performance in Several ESP Procedure Journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp. 264-275. 12. GTCC11W(KX1, J. A. Analysis Of 2 Urge Chance Control Series of ESP DZIU." four? of Paropsyrhologv 2. 1938. pp. 138-146. 13. Gurney. E., F. Myers. and F. Podmore. Phantasms of the Liroing (2 vols.). Londc TTuhner and Co.. 1886. 14. Hansel, C. E. M. "Experiments on Telepathy in Children." firilish Journal of Statisti@ Ps'ychology 13, 1960. pp. 175-1713. 15. Hansel, C. E. M. ESP-A Scientific Evaluation. New York: Scribners, 1966. 16. Hansen, F. C. C., and A. LchM2nn. "Cher Unwillkiirliches Fliistcrn." Philosophic Studies 17. IR95. pp. 471-530. 17. Heinlein, C. P.. and J. H. Heinlein. "Critique of the Premises and StatiStiC21 Met Iodology of Parapsychology." journal of Psychology 5. 1938. pp. 135-148. 18. Herbert, C. V. C. "Experiment in Extra-sensory Perception." journal of the Sorie for Psychical Research 30. 1938, pp. 215-218. 19. Humphrey, B. M., and J. A. Clark. "A Comparison of Clairvoyant and Chance %.f2tC. ing." Journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938. pp. 31-37, 20. Huntington. E. V. "Is It Chance or ESPY' America" Scholar 7. 1938, pp. 201-210. 21. Kellogg, C. E. "Dr. J. B. Rhine and Extra-scn%ory Perception." journal of Abnorm. and Social Psychology 31, 1936, pp. 190-193. 22. Kellogg, C. E. "New Evidence (?) for Extrii-sensory Perception." Scientific Afonthl 037, pp. 331-341. 23. Kellogg, C. E. Critical comments in (43), pp. 228-238. 24. Kennedy, 1. L. "A Methodological Review of Exera-sensory Perception. Psychologic. Bulletin 36, 1939. pp. 59-103. 25. Kennedy, 1. L. "The Visual Cues from the Backs of the ESP Cards." Journal Psychology 5. 1938, pp. 149-153. 26. Kennedy, J. L., and H. F. Uphoff. "Experiments on the Nature of Extr2-.%Cnsot Perception: 111. The Recording Error Criticism of Extra-chance Scores." lourn( of Parapsychology 3, 1939. pp. 226-245. 27. Kennedy. J. L. Critical comments in (43), pp. 218-220. 28. Kuhn, T. S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Chicago: University of Chicag Press, 1962. 29. Lemmon, V. W. "The Role of Selection in ESP Data." Journal of ParapsychologN. 1939, pp. 104-106. 30. Lcmmon, V. NV. Critical comments in (43), pp. 222-228. 31. Lcuba, C. "An Experiment to Test the Role of Chance in ESP Research." Journal o Parapjychology 2. 1938, pp. 217-221. 32. h1acFarland. J. 0. "Discrimination Shown Between Experimenters by Subjects.' journal of ParapsYchology 2. 1938. pp. 160-170. 33. MacFarl2nd, 1. D., and R. W. George. "Extra-sensory Perception of Normal anc Distorted Symbols." journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp. 93-101. 34. Martin, D. R. "Chance and Extra-chance Results in CMI-11112tching." journal o, Parapsychology 1, 1937, pp. 185-190. 35. Martin, D. R.. and F. P. Stribic. "Studies in Extr2-sensory Perception: 1. An Analysli! of 25.ODO Trials; and 11. An Analysis of a Second Series of 25,000 Trials." journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938. pp. 23-30. 287-295. 36. Mechl. P. E.. and hf. Scrivcn. "Comp2tibility of Science and ESP." Science 123. 1956, pp. 14-15. 37. Murphy. G. "On Limits of Recording Errors." In (1). pp. 262-266. 38. Murphy, G., and E. Taves. "Covatiancc Methods in (he Comparison of Extra-wn-morv Tasks." fournal of Parapsychology 3. 1939, pp. 38-78. 39. Oram. A. T. "An Experiment with Random ?%timbers." journal of the -Society for Psychical RC5edTCh 37, 1954. pp. 30-377. 40. Oram. A. T. Correspondence. journal of the Society for Psychical Research 38. 3955. pp. 143-144. ,114 Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Paranornwl Comnuniaiiort "Error Some Place!" the paradigm are seldom made: anomalies ire ignored. When th,@ anomalies become sufficiendy persistent that they can no longer be igoored, they VC -ire hotly disputed. Eventually, a new paradigm is tentati 1 ly erected which attracts i group of adherents, and a period of crisis elistles which Kuhn calls a paradigm clash. In this review I have focused at sorne length on the pe iod of the 1930s, not because it provides the best available evidence @or ESP or the best understanding of the processes underlying its operatil n-it does neither, but rather because it was during this period that the major substantive methodological issues were raised and to a large @xtent con- sensually resolved. Since 1940, well over 10,000 journal pages devoted to parapsychological research have been published, and at least 50 experi- mental studies have been reported. The methodological fou dations of the research have gradually diversified, enlarging and enrichin the scope of inquiry and providing a basis for more sophisticated study. !Automated testing equipment has replaced card-guessing in fnrccd-choice@ESP tasks, and quantitative methods have been developed for the objective assessment of psi interactions in nonguessing tasks. Psychophysiological techniques, permitting determination of psi-optimal organismic states, have been in- troduced and utili7ed in conjunction with experimental methods more closely approximating the conditions under which psi interaciions occur in vivo. More important, para psych ologi cal investigators have! to a large extent shifted their attention away from the "proof-oriented"! approach, which can only reaffirm the presence of anomaly, toward sys .tematic at- tempts to identify the antecedent conditions necessary for the occurrence and detection of psi interactions, the delineation of positive attributes, and the study of individual differences. Only through the pursuit of such .. process-oriented" research can we ever hope to achieve the goals! of control, assured replicability (or at least predictability), and eventual und0irstanding. REFERENCES 1. American Psychological As%ociation. "ESP Symposium at the American Psychological ASSCKi2tion." Jour"41 of Parapsychology 2. 1938. pp. 247-272. 2. Bell. M. "Francis Bacon, Pioneer in Parapsychology." International Jour .@al of Para. p.rvehology 6, 1964. pp. 199-208. I Bender, H. "The Case of Ilga K..- Report of a Phenomcnon of Unusual ]Perception." journal of Parapsychology 2, 1938, pp. 5-22. 4. Bozarth, J, D.. and R. R. Roberts. "Signifying Significant Significance American Psychologist 27. 1972. pp. 774-775. 5. Bridgman. P. IV. "Probability. Logic, and ESP." Scierace 123. 1956. pp. 151 17. 6. Camp, B. H. "Statement under 'Notes."' Journal of Parapsychology 1, 19 7, p. 305. 7. Carpenter, C. R., and H. R. Phalen. "An Expciimcnt in Card Guessing.@ Journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp. 31-43. S. Crurnbaugh. J. C. An ExpCTiMC11tal Study of Extra-scrisory Perception. Thesis, 1938, Southern Methodist Univeisity Library. i 9. Feller, IV. "Statistical Aspects of ESP." Journal of Parapsychology 4, 1940, !pp. 271-M. 10. Fisher, R. A. Letter to 1. B. Rhine, cited in (50), p. 45. Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 journal of Communicaiion, WinW 1975 Two recent examples, one involving cancer research (74) and the othez involving parapsychology (57), serve to remind us of the importance ot cross-validation in tile assessment of any experimental finding. In both cases, it should be added, the frauclulcnt acts were detected in-hotise, b)- the researchers themselves. The point is that in the final analysis an experi- mental finding is of value and is to be taken seriously only to the extent that it leads to further inquiry. To regard any experiment as an end in itself is to remove it from the domain of experimental science. It is obvious that hypothetical construct, such as ESP, cannot be validated by any isolated experiment, no matter flow well controlled it might be. Inde- pendent replication is a necessary prerequisite. The claim that psi phenomena operate outside the framework of physical probability has been a major source Of 2 priori arguments against acceptance of ESP. It has been suggested diat to accept ESP requires the rejection of physics. This is absurd, and it is worth noting that such arguments have usually been advanced and defended by psychologists rather than by physicists. The debate over the incompatibility of physics and ESP has been conducted almost exclusively within the framework of nineteen th-cen tury deterministic physics, wherein the ultimate constituent of physical reality was still believed to be solid matter. Inasmuch as modern microphysics has exorcised the material out of matter and deals with processes which on our macrophysical level of sensory perception are every bit 2s erratic and anomalous as ESP, the a priori claim that ESP violates specifiable laws of physics can no longer be considered to be of more than historical interest. ESP and other psi phenomena, while no longer incompatible with physics, are not yet accounted for by physics; but then. neither are the more familiar processes of memory and conscious experience. Indeed, the transformation of "raw feels" into conscious experience is no less a problem for the neurophysiologists of today than it was for the speculative philos- ophers of classical antiquity. Sir John Eccles, among others, has repeatedly warned, "We should not pretend that consciousness is not a mystery." The ESP controversy illustrates several features of the paradigmatic view of science developed by Thomas Kuhn (28). Normal science. according to Kuhn, is essentially a clean-up operation, constrained by a broad theoretical framework, or paradigm, which defines the boundaries of legiti- mate inquiry. Paradigms arc scientific world views which provide coherence nd structure and determine tile types of questions to be posed of nature, : s well as tile manner in which answers are sought. Normal science is thus a process of paradigm-articulation, rather than of discovery. Within tile p2radigm structure of normal science, observations which conflict with 112 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Paranormat Communication "Error Some Placell, remaining to the skeptical scientist is ignorance, ignorance concerning the work itself and concerning its implirations. The! typical scientist contents himself with retaining ... some criticism tha@z at most applies to a small fraction of the published studies. But thesell findings (which challenge our very concepts of space and time) are-if@ valid-of eno7:- mons importance so they ought not to be ignored.! Following Hume's argument on miracles, Price asser ed that ESP is "incompatible with current scientific theory," and that it i@ therefore more parsimonious to believe that parapsychologists cheat than that ESP is a real phenomenon. He concluded, "My opinion concerning the findings of the parapsychologists is that many of them are dependent on clerical and statistical errors and unintentional use of sensory clues, an' that all extra- chance results not so explicable are dependent on deliberate fraud or mildly abnormal menial conditions" (47, p. 360). This extraordinary critique and the ensuing discussion in Science (5, 36, 48, 55, 56, 65) were widely reviewed. As Meehl and Scriven (46) pointed out, Price's argument rests on two highly questionable assumptions, namely that contemporary scientific knowledge is complete, and that ESP necessarily conflicts with it. ' @eventeen years later, in an "Apology to Rhine and Soal," Price retractedi his accusations of investigator fraud (49). Very similar arguments have, however, been made ni re recently by the British paT2 psychological critic C. E. M. Hansel (14, 15), who began his examination of the ESP hypothesis by suggesting that "the a priori arguments . . . may even save time and effort in scrutin@zing the [ESP] experiments .... In view of the a priori arguments 2gains@ it we know in advance that telepathy, etc., cannot occur." Because of the "a priori unlikelihood" of ESP, Hanse'I's examination of the literature centered primarily on the possibility of fr; ud, by subjects or investigators. He reviewed in depth four experiments wh'ch he regarded as providing the best evidence of ESP: the already-mentioned Pearce-Pratt distance series (59); the Pratt-Woodruff (44) series, also conc 'ucted at Duke: and Soal's work with Mrs. Stewart and Basil Shackleton 166), as well as a more recent series by Soal and Bowden (67). Hansel sl kowed, in each case, how fraud could have been committed (by the experimenters in the Pratt-Woodruff and Soal-Bateman series, and by the subjects in the Pearce- Pratt and Soal-Bowden experiments). He gave no direct evidence that fraud was committed in these experiments but said, "If the res.@lt could have arisen through a trick, the experiment must be considere unsatisfactory proof of ESP, whether or not it is finally decided that such@ a trick was in fact used" (15, p. 18, italics mine). Hansel's argument is unclear, inasmuch as he quite pro rly insists that no single experiment can be conclusive, then proceeds to ow that none is, given the theoretical possibility of fraud by subjects 0 investigators. Hansel's only conclusion after more than 250 pages of 'reful scrutiny was that these experiments were not "fraud-proof" and the c;fore not con- clusive proof of ESP. zzz Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03107 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 foumal of Communicatio", Winter 1975 Table 2: Breakdown of experimental ESP Studies (1934-1939) N N studies reported (Studies)o, significant (p < xi) % signif. Duke group 17 15 88 Non-Duke 33 20 61 Total 50 35 Includes all English-language studies involving assessment of statistical significance of data. 1934-1939 inclusive. X2 (Duke vs. non-Duke X significant vs. nonsignificant) = 1.70 (1 df) sequences have been "doctored" prior to publication in order to remove certain nonrandorn features; this practice, according to Spencer Brown, makes such sequences nonrandorn and invalidates the use of standard significance tests; (b) the source of some random number sequences involves randomizing machines which utilize the unpredictability of human be- havior when examined for microscopic variation; such variation, says Spencer Brown, may be predictable enough to account for observed anom- alies in random sequences, as well as some of the significant results reported in ESP guessing experiments; (c) Spencer Brown produces evidence to show that anomalous (significant) departures from probability theory can be obtained by matching columns of random numbers (39). A detailed examination of these points was undertaken by Scott (64). With respect to "doctored" sequences, Scott showed that the maximum error due to rejected (edited) sequences would not affect interpretations of results which are more than marginally significant and could, in fact, increase the likelihood of making a Type 11 error. On the hypothesis that ESP results are due to some kind of hyper-regularity affecting both the target sequence and the response (guess) sequence simultaneously and similarly, Scott makes the point that this would lead to the expectation of similar results from matching any set of humanly produced random se. quences. The cross-check type of control series and the Greenwood chance control series described earlier demonstrate that this is not the case. The anomalies reported by Spencer Brown (68), obtained by arbitrarily matching columns of random numbers, have been criticized on the basis of post hoc selection (40) and illustrate not that there are fundamental defects in prob- ability theory, but rather that significant deviations from chance can occur in any data where hypotheses and analyses are not specified in advance. The most recent phase of the ESP controversy centers on the hypothesis of investigator fraud. This argument was most forcefully pTes@nted in a lead article in Science, entitled "Science and the Supernatural," by G. R. Price (47). who began with the following observations: Believers in psychic phenomena . . . appear to have won a decisive victory and virtually silenced opposition. . . . This victory is the result of an impressive amount of careful experimentation and intelligent argumentation. . . . Against all this evidence, almost the only defense Approved For Release 2001/03107 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 -5 Paranor"W Co@nmunication "Error Some Placell, of significance attached to some of the reported ESP inve til' i ns would s Iatio necessitate postulating astronomical numbers of "chance' I ials in order to dilute the overall deviations to chance. To take one exa ple, consider @n the Pearce-Pratt series of 1.850 trials which yielded p = 10-21. As Soal and Bateman (66) pointed out, it is difficult to believe that 10" !(ten thousand million) sets of 1,850 trials could have possibly been carriO out between 1934 and F140 (or, for that matter, since 1940). But, as Soalland Bateman suggest, -... if we posit this absurd estimate as an upper limi [with overall chance totals], that would still give us odds of 1010 . . . again@t the supposi- tion that the Pearce-Pratt results were a run of pure luck." The possibility of obtaining significant "extrachance" results by stopping an experimental 'series at "favorable" points was also raised K9, 31). While this "optional stopping" hypothesis was generally agreed to be of significance only in cases of marginally significant results, it led to th@ adoption . of several procedural modifications: specification of the total n ' ber of tnals in advance of data collection, or accumulation ks of pre- determined size. of data in 70c The possibility was raised by several critics that hand-shuf@led cards may display a tendency to stick together or otherwise produce p tterns which could produce spurious results (24, 82). While the cross-checZ type of con- trol series, described earlier, failed to reveal any evidence patterning, there was a general trend away from hand shuffling in the I r published studies, which utilized tables of prepared random numbersa@se a basis for generating target sequences. There was-and is (e.g., 15)-a rather widespread belief 'that most of the evidence supporting the ESP hypothesis originated in the Duke Uni- versity studies and that most independent replications by othe I investigators r were nonconfirmatory. A survey of the published literature etween 1934 and 1940 fails to support this claim. Table 2 shows all the pub ished experi- mental reports during this period which provided statistical treatment of the data. Inspection of this table reveals that a majority (6 percent) of the outside replications report significant results (p < .01) iind that the proportion of significant studies was not significantly greater tor the Duke University group (X2 = 1.70, 1 df). By 1940, the active was over. The issues raised were, for the most part, legitimate, and @investigators modified their procedures to safeguard their results from m@th 111 -ical n Oto criticism. The major issues raised since 1940 center on alleged a ies in probability theory and the hypothesis of widespread investi toT fraud. Spencer Brown (68, 69) has suggested that statistically si ificant, card- guessing studies provide evidence, not of extrasensory modes of communica- tion, but of fundamental defects in probability theory. He makes three criticisms of random number sequences: (a) published randl Pm number Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 -5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 10ur"al of Communication, Winter 1975 able to the ESP hypothesis made 71.5 percent more errors of commissio, (increasing ESP scores), while those who were unfavorable to the F-SY hypothesis made 100 percent more errors of omission (decreasing ESI scores). Murphy (37) reported an analysis of 175,000 trials from experiment reporting positive evidence for ESP and found only 175 errors (0.10 per cent). Greenwood (12) reported only 90 recording errors in rechecking hi, 500,000-trial control study, of which 76 were errors of omission. Some critics also alleged that improper selection of data could accouni for experimental successes. This could be done in several ways: (a) selection of subjects; (b) selection of particular blocks of data out of larger samples; (c) selection of one of several forms of analysis; and (d) selective reporting of particular studies. The questions raised have sometimes been stated cynically in the form, "Par2pSyClIOlOKiStS must run 100 subjects before they find one with 'ESP'." As if in defense against this charge, a number of the reported studies specifically stated that all of the data collected were included in the analysis (see 43, pp. 118-124, Table 12). Concerning selection of subjects, Warner (76) suggested two criteria: first, results of "poor" subjects must be included up to the point when they are discontinued since it does not matter how many trials a given subject makes as long as all of the trials (for all subjects) are included; second, exclude all preliminary trials (for both "good" and "poor" sub- jects) and use preliminary screening studies to select "good" candidates for formal work. These criteria were generally endorsed by the chief critics of the period (e.g., 23). The question of post hoc selection Of analyses W2s not a point of serious concern in the period between 1934 and 1940, though it is relevant to the assessment of some of the process-oriented investigations reported more recently. The question of whether nonsignificant studies were withheld from publication involves an issue which is of great toncern to the be- havioral sciences as a whole (70, 81) and one which is difficult to accurately assess since there is no way of knowing how many studies may have been withheld from publication because their results failed to disconfirm the null hypothesis. Several studies of American Psychological Association publication poli- cies (4. 70, 81) indicate that experimental studies in general are more likely to be published if the null hypothesis is rejected at the conventional .05 and .01 alpha levels than if it is not rejected. These studies also indicate that a negligible proportion of published studies are replications. Bozarth and Roberts (4), in a survey of 1,334 articles from psychological journals, found t1121t 94 percent of the articles involving statistical tests of significance reported rejection of specific null hypotheses; only eight articles (less than I percent) involved replications of previously published studies. With respect to the implications of such selection for the ESP hypothesis, there are two partial answers. First, considering the degree of critical inter- est which prevailed in the 1930s, it seems unlikely that nonsignificant find- ings would have been repressed during this period, second, the high levels Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Parano"nal C011111111unicagion "Error Some PlaceP It is clear that at least some of the early exploratory serie reported in Rhine's monograph were open to criticism for inadequate co Irols against sensory cues. While Rhine did not base major conclusions on such poorly controlled data, inclusion of them in his monograph provided a eady target for critical reviewers and sidetracked discussion away from thetetter con- trolled work, such as the Pcarce-Pratt series, which was not susceptible to explanation by sensory cues. Defects in an early commercial printing of ESP cards were reported by several investigators (18, 25). It was found that the cards were warped and could under certain conditions be identified from the back. This discovery circulated widely for a time as in explanation of all successful (i.e., statis- tically significant) experimental series. The parapsychologists r Itorted that defective cards had not been employed in any of the experiments reported in the literature and that, in any case, they could not account for results from studies involving adequate screening with such devices'! as opaque envelopes, screens. distance, or work involving the precognitio paradigm in which the target sequences were not generated until after7the subject had made his responses (53, 54, 72). i By 1940 nearly one million experimental trials had been rep pIrted under conditions which precluded sensory leakage. These included ve studies in which the target cards were enclosed in opaque sealed envelc pes (41, 45, 46, 54, 59), 16 studies employing opaque screens (7, 8, 11, 19, 33 34, 35, 38, 41, 42, 44, 45, 46. 59, 71), ten studies involving separation of sibjects and targets in different buildings (50, 51, 52, 53, 34, 32, 8, 77, 61, )), and two studies involving precognition tasks (59, 75). These data are summarized in Table 1. The results were independently significant in 27 of the 33 experi- ments. By the end of the 1930s there was general agreement thai the better- controlled ESP experiments could not be accounted for on tie basis of sensoryleakage. I The hypothesis that significant "extrachance" deviations in P experi- ments might be attributable to motivated scoring errors was investigated in several studies. In one investigation (26), 28 observers recorded 11,125 mock ESP trials. Of these, 126 (1.13 percent) were misrecorded. Obse@vers favor- Table 1: ESP card-guessing experiments (1934-1939) excluding sens@ry cues- Method Studies N (Trials) Mean/25 p< "Clairvoyance--- paradigm, stimuli In sealed, opaque envelopes 5 129.775 5.21 0 X 10-11 "Clairvoyance" paradigm. stimuli concealed by opaque screens 16 497,450 5.44 2." JCl-11 Distanceb 10 164,475 5.37 , wig Precognition paradigms2 115,330 5.15 F.915 X 10-4 References given In text. b Includes work with both -telepathy" and "clairvoyance" paradigms Stimuli generated after subjects made their responses Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789RO03100110001_5 107 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 journal of Communication, Winter 1975 scores were in all cases nonsignificant, with a mean scoring rate of 5.04 Several Critics questioned the applicability of the binomial distribut; as a basis for assessing the statistical significance of ESP card-guessing & Willoughby (78) proposed the use of an empirical control series, but la withdrew the suggestion after comparing the two methods (79). Alternat methods of deriving the probable error and recommendations for usi the empirical standard deviation were also proposed and later withdra- (21, 22). Concern over this issue diminished and was generally abandon following the publication of a large chance control series involving h a million trials and demonstrating close approximation to the binorn model (12). Another question arose about whether the binomial model provir sufficient approximation to the normal distribution to allow use of norry probability integral tables for determination of significance levels (I Stuart and Greenwood (73) showed that when the normal distribution used as an approximation to the binomial model, discrepancies are i portant only with cases of borderline significance and few trials. The use of the binomial critical ratio (z) to evaluate the significance the ESP card-guessing deviations was generally approved by professior statisticians (6, 20). Fisher (10). however, commented that high levels statistical significance should not be accepted as substitutes for independe replication. In another vein, Huntington (20) asked, "If mathematics h successfully disposed of the hypothesis of chance, what has psychology say about the hypothesis of ESP?- The most frequently expressed methodologic concern uw the possibility of sot form of "sensory leakage," girring the E@ subject enough information about the targe to account for significant, extrachance resul, As earl), as 1895, two Danish psychologists, Hansen and Lehmar. (16), reported that with the aid of parabolic reflectors subjects could dete digits and other material silently concentrated upon by an agent. In the! experiments, the subject and agent sat with their heads close to the fo@ of two concave mirrors. While the agent concentrated on the number, Y. made a special effort to keep his lips closed. Under these conditions, tl@. subjects were frequently successful in identifying the number. These resul were interpreted by Hansen ahd Lehmann as supporting the hypothes. of "involuntary whispering." The utilization of subtle sensory cues wZ demonstrated in a careful investigation by S. G. Soal of a stage "telepathist (66). There were also reports, such as the case of "Ilga K.," a mentall retarded Latvian child who could read any text, even in a foreign languagt when someone stood behind her, reading "silently." Experiments witi dictaphone recordings revealed that "Ilga" was responding to very sligh auditory cues (3). Z" Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-00789 Parmtormal container or in another room, without an agent. -Pr@ introduced somewliat later (59), required the subject to 0 guesses of the card order before the pack was shuffled or ot ized. Rhine introduced the term "ESP" in his first major reF University work in 1934 (50). He reported a total of 85,"o trials, carried out with a wide variety of subjects and un( of test conditions. The results as a whole were astronomi though informal exploratory trials were indiscriminately p, carried out under more carefully controlled conditions. Th work during this period was the Pearce-Pratt distance serie tests (58), in which the subject, Pearce, located in one bui to identify the order of the cards as they were handled, bu Pratt, the experimenter, located in another building. The obtained in this series of 1,850 trials was associated with 10-2-1. 03100110001-5 / "Errm Swne Placep, ognition" tests, ike anticipatory ierwise random- rt on the Duke 4 card-guessing r a wide range ally significant, Died with those best-controlled of clairvoyance ling, attempted not viewed, by vel of accuracy probability of As a stimulant to experimental research, Rhine's wor Ik had unprece- dented influence. For the first time a common methodolo was adopted and employed on a large scale by 2 number of indepen !! 4ent and widely separated investigators. For the first time, also, the scien@ific community was confronted with a body of data, collected through conientional meth- ods, which it could no longer ignore-noT too hastily accept. The wide- scale adoption of the card-guessing methodology was acc@mpanied by a plethora of critical articles, challenging almost every aspec@ of the evalua- tive techniques and the experimental conditions. During Ithe period be- tween 1934 and 1940, approximately 60 critical articles by@40_authors ap- peared, primarily in the psychological literature. While card-guessing is no longer the primary methodology in experimental parapsychology, the questions which arose OVeT its use are of equal relevance to the more sophisticated approaches used today. The first major issu@ concerned the tWidity of the assu plion that the probability of success i @ card-guessing experiments u@s actually 115. If chance expectation is other than 1/5, the significance of the observed deviations would obviously be in doubt. This issue was q1 ickly resolved by mathematical proof and through empirical "cross-checks," a form of control series in which responses (guesses) were deliberately ompared with target orders for which they were not intended (e.g., respo-ts on run n, matched with the target sequence for run n.). Empirical a ;ss-checks were reported for 24 separate experimental series involving a total of 12.228 runs (305,700 individual trials). While the actual experimental run scores (e.g., guesses on run ni compared to targets for run n1) were highly sig- nificant and yielded a mean scoring rate of 7.23/25, the control cross-check Approved For Release 2001103107 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 journal of Communication, Winter 1975 Early experimental approaches primarily involved the "telepathic" repro- duction of drawings at a distance (62). While often striking correspondences were obtained, the experimental conditions did not usually provide for random selection of target (stimulus) material, and were not always totally adequate with respect to the possibility of sensory leakage, intentional or otherwise. Neither the spontaneous case studies nor the early experimental efforts made much impact upon the scientific community, though they drew critical comment from prominent period scientists. "Neither the testimony of all the Fellows of the Royal Society, nor even the evidence of my own senses," proclaimed Helmholtz, "would lead me to believe in the transmission of thought from one person to another independently of the recognized chan- nels of sense." Thomas Huxley declined an invitation to participate in some of the early SPR investigations, saying he would sooner listen to the idle gossip of old women. The rudiments of an experimental methodology for testing psi were suggested three centuries ago by Francis Bacon. In Sylva Sylvarum, a work published posthumously, Bacon discussed experiments in consort, monitory, touching transmission of spirits and forces of imagination." He suggested that "the motions of shuffling cards, or casting of dice" could be used to test the "binding of thoughts. . . . The experiment of binding of thoughts should be diversified and tried to the full; and you are to note whether it hit for the most part though not always" (2). The application of probability theory to the assessment of deviations from theoretically expected chance outcomes was introduced to psychical research in 1884 by the French Nobel laureate, Charles Richet, in experi- ments involving card-guessing. The popularity of card-guessing as an ex- perimental methodology was greatly influenced by the work of J. B. Rhine and his associates at Duke University in the early 1930s. Rhine (50) devised a standard set of procedures around a simplified card deck containing randomized seguences of five geometric for-ins (circle, cross, wavy lines, square-, and (ird)e. These "ESP cards" were prepared in packs of 25, and @eac i @'runliirough the pack was associated with a constant binomial prob- ability of 1/5, since subjects were not given tri@l-by-trial feedback. Provid- ing the experimental conditions were adequate to eliminate illicit sensory cubes, recording errors, and national inference, statistically significant de- partures from binomial chance expectation were interpreted as indicating extrasensory communication. Initially, "telepathy" tests consisted of having 2 subject in one room attempt to identify the order of the cards as they were observed by an ..agent" in another room. In "clairvoyance" tests, the subject attempted to "guess" the order of the cards directly, 2S they lay concealed in an opaque Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Approved For Release 2001/03/07 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 Paranormal Communication "'Error Some Place!" by Charles Honorton Review of the ESP controversy traces debate from statistical and methodological issues to the a priori critique and the paradigm ol ,normal science." Asked his opinion of ESP, a skeptical psychologist once ret@rted, "Error Some Placel" I believe he was right, but for the wrong reasons. Western science has always been ambivalent toward the mental side o reality, and it is perhaps not surprising that the occurrence of "psychic" henomena is one of the most controversial topics in the history of science. The first serious effort toward scientific examination of P, i claims was undertaken by the Society for Psychical Research (SPR), foundcd in London in 1882 for the purpose of "making an organized and systematic attempt to investigate the large group of phenomena designated by sach terms as mesmeric, psychical, and spiritualistic." The SPR leadership included many distinguished scholars of the period, and similar organizations quickly spread to other countries, including the American Society for Psychical Re- search, founded in New York in 1885 under the aegis of William James, who himself took an active role in early investigations of.mediumistic communications. These turn-of-the-century investigators focused much of their attention on authenticating individual cases of spontaneous experiences suggestive of psi communication. While a great deal of provocative matqial was care- fully examined and reported (e.g., 13). the limitations inherer t in the case study approach prohibited definitive conclusions. However th OTOUghly au- thenticated, spontaneous cases cannot provide adequate assessment of such potential sources of contamination as chance coincidence, uniconscious in- ference and sensory leakage, retroactive falsification, or deli@erate fraud. Charles HonOTton is director of research in the Division of Para' sychology and Psychophysics. Department of Psychiatry. Maimonides Medical Center, B@Zck'lyn, N.Y. 2 joy Approved For Release 2001/03/07 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 J)3 6 TheJourrial of Parap.@vrhoh)o ained by conventional theories of coincidence (Diaconis & losteller, 1989). Hyman and Honorton (1986) have Stated, CD CD ... the best way to resolve the lganzfeldl controversy ... is it) await tile T11 M outcome of future ganzfeld experiments. These experiments. ideally, CD Q will be carried out in such a way as to circumvent the file-drawer prob- Icill, prob1clus (11' lutilliple analysis. alld ille various 410,C4.1s ill ralldoill- CD ization, statistical application. and documentation pointed out by 00 I- Hyman. If a variety of parapsychologists and other invest l9al0l"s C011- Q tinue to obtain significant results under these conditions, then 111c exis- CD (Al tence of a genuine communications anomaly will have been denion- a) strated. (pp. 353-354) a- 0 We have presented a series of experiments that satisfy these Wuidelines. Although no single investigator or laboratory can satisfy te requirement of independent replication, the automated ganzfeld Vudies are quite consistent with the earlier studies. On the basis of ffie cumulative evidence, we conclude that the ganzfeld effect rep- F@@ Orsents a genuine Communications anomaly. This conclusion will ather be strengthened or weakened by additional independent rep- Rations, but there is no longer any justification for the claini made some critics that the existing evidence does not warrant serious cwte%@ii,,ii by the scientific community. (D 9commendations for Future Research (D (1) Recent psi ganzf'cid research has necessarily focused oil meth @ological issues arising from the ganzfeld controversy. It is essen that future studies comply with the methodological standards tgreed on by researchers and critics. Yet it is equally imperative that trious attention be given to conditions associated with successful Citcomes. CL Small to medium effect sizes characterize many research findings the biomedical and social sciences (e.g., Cohen, 1977; Rosenthal, k1J84). Rosenthal (1986) and Utis (1986) make a strong case f0l' more careful consideration of the magnitllrle of 64ect in tile A-;__ _@alrps and analysis of future ganzfeld studies. The automated ganzfeld studies show a success rate slightly in excess of 34%. Utts's (1986) power analysis shows that for an effect of this size, the investigator has only about one chance in three of obtaining a statistically signif- Psi Communication in the Gan@fehl 137 We urge ganzfeld investigators to use dynamic targets and to de-Q CD sign their studies to allow subjects to have the option to have friendscD T_ or acquaintances as their senders. The similarity of tile autoganzfeldT. and Incla-analysis data scis strongly indicates that tlkcsc l*actors iffecD CD important moderators of psi ganzfeld perf ormance. If'our estimate M of the impact of dynamic and static targets is accurate, a 50-session(D scrit's using dynamic I;kl-gcis lias approximaiely -.in 84% chance of CD w yielding a signilicant outcome. A comparable series with static tar-a) 00 gets ha's only about one chance in five of achieving significance. F_ CD CD I REFERENCES to a) AUX)CK, J. E. (1986). Comments on the Hyman-Honorton ganzfeld contro-0 versy.jourrial of Parapsychology, 50, 345-348. 0 AKER.S, C. (1984). Methodologicalcriticismsof parapsychology. In S. Krippnerw (Ed.), Advances in parapsychological research, Vol. 4 (pp. 112-164). Jeffer-< son, NC: McFarland. BERGER, R. E.. & HONORTON, C. (1986). An automated psi ganzfeld testing systern. In D. ". Weiner & D. 1. Radin (Eds.). Re.%earrh in parap.@ychology'*- 1985 (pp. 85-88). Mcuichen, N CD _1: Scarecrow Press. co BLACKMORE. S. (1980). The extent of selective reporting of ESP.ganzfeldcD Studies. Europeanjournal ol'Par-apsychology, 3, 213-219. CD BLACKNIORE, S. (1987). A report of a visit to Carl Sargent's iaboratory.joumalcD of the Society for Psychical Research, 54, 186 - 198. 04 BRAUD, W. G. (1978). Psi conducive conditions: Explorations and interpre- (1) U) tations. I n B. Shapin & L. Coly (Eds.), Psi and states of awareness (pp. I - M 34). New York: Parapsychology Foundation, Inc. 77D BRAUD, W. G., Woon, R., & BRAut), L. W. (1975). Free-response GESP per-W forniance during all experimental hypnagogic state induced by visual " and acoustic ganzfeld techniques: A replication and extension. Journal of 0 the American Socielyfor Psychical Research, 69, 105-113. LL 'a BRH;cs, K. C., & MYERS, 1. B. (1957). Myers-Briggs Type Indicator Form F. Palo (D Afto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press, Inc. > 0 BROWNLEE, K. A. (1965). Statistical theory and methodology in science'and engi- " CL neering. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CL CHILD, 1. L. (1986). Comments on the ganzfeld controversy. Journal of Para-< p%yrhalop. 50, 337-3-14. COHEN7 L (19771- Slatistical power analpsic for the behavioral sc;-* Pp r , - I -i-, n New York: Academic Press. DIACONIS, P., & Mos-rELLER, F. (1989). Methods for studying coincidences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84, 853 -86 1. DRUCKMAN, D., & SWETS, J. (1988). Enhancing human performance: Issues, the- ories, and technimies. Washington, DC: National Academv Press. 1 .1`1 1 hejournal qJ Paral).@ychology for multiple comparisons is no[ a rollillioll praclice in Inore collvell- lional areas ol' psychological hiquiry. Neverilit'less, liall, ill' I lylli;lll*s ( 1985) 50-page crifique of' earlier psi g;liizl'(.I(l research loctised ()It issues I-ChItCd to I1ltlI(IpIIc testilig. Ill tile preSCIII case, advallcc spec- ificatioll of, tile primarl hypodiesis and method of' alialysis prevents 1*15pblvills illvolvilig 111111lipic all.-Ilysis Ill 111111liple ilitlit cs ill 40111 lesl lie overall psi 9;tllzi'ci(l effect. Out- direct hits analysis is actually .gill I 1, 51 ificant than eillier dic simi of'ranks mediod (z = 4.04, p 2@2 X 10 ) or Stalifin-d's z !;cores (I = 4.53, 354 ty" p x I V). C)Ili addilioll to Ihe primal T11 -V hyllothesis. however. we also It-sled I%ft secondary 111,polliesvs colicerililig Iliv impact ol' largel IVpv aild 11st Communication in the Ganzj"eld 135 a prol,essiollal Illell(alist I.ill. over 20 years. I Ic is tile aullior 01"I'allY arlicles in mentalist. periodicals alid has served as secretaryffreas- MAT 01, ille Psychic 1-1111 erlai liers Associalion. Mr. Kross has pi-0vided its with the 1`01lowing statement: "Ili my professional capacity as a 111.1lisl . I have reviewed I'Sv Research I ahol-alories, MV autoulated ganAeld SYS(Ciii and l0killd it to provide excelletit sccu rity against deception by subjects" (personal communication, May, 1989). We have received silli Iilar comincills I'rolli Daryl Ilem, Pro 1'essor of Psychology at Cornell University. Prof'essor Bem is well known f')r his research in social and personality psychology. He is also a In Ober of' tile Psychic Entertainers Associatioii and has per (.111 )-val-s as a likellialisi. I Ic visiled ITI. 1,01- several s ral purely e .xploratory . ana.lyses as well. Our Residis section in- Sigilillt.1111 v [(*SOS 111%,tolvilig lisi lit-1,1411 161.611t v as ille tirlwal- d6t varial:1e, and the p values cited are not aoiLiSted 1'()i- multiple 09iparisons. 01' (lie 15 significance tests, 9 are associated Willi P < (CO The Bonferroni multiple comparisons procedure provides a cGise rval i vc 111cillod of, ad-ItIslilig tile alplia ICvCI %vlicil scvcral si- 1haneous tests of' significance are perl'Ormed (Holland & Copell- "er, 1988; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Rosenthal & Rubin, 1984). COO tile Isollierrolli adjustilicill is applied, six of- tile nine individ- y significant outcomes remain significant; these are: tile overall hj,t.rate. tile sul)jeci-based analysis using Sianfiwd z scores, tile dill Nance between dynamic and s(atic targets, the dynamic target hit r& and the hit rate ('()I- experienced subjects. T-Although the relationship between psi peri'Mmance ;Ili(] sender t)&- is not independently significant in the autoganzFeld, tile cor- rffition coefficient of .363 is close to that observed in the rneta- aillysis (r = .403), and tile combined result is significant. The cu- inglative evidence, therefin-e. does support tile conclusioll that tile -- let s t& 11-cceiver relaliollship is a sigilificalil Illoderalor oF galizi"Cid pXperformance. L_ osecurlty. Given tile large number of'sul)jecis and tile significance o134he outcome using sul)jects as the unit tWanalysis. sul)jeci decep- Iiig is llol a plausible explanalioll. The ailloilialt-d g;liizl*(-I(l prolocol h& been examine(] by several dozeii parapsychologists and behav- io2al researchers from other fields, including well-known critics of p;Rapsychology. Many have participated its subjects, senders, or ob- sAyers. All have expressed satisf'action with our handling of'security issues and controls. In addition, two experts oil tile simulation of' psi ability have ex- C ainined file atilogaild"'Id system mid protocol. Ford Kross has Iken days ancl was a subject in 3cries Jul. 'I'lle issile (of' illvesligalor ililegrily (-;tit (1111%. be colicillsively ad- dressed through independent replications. It is, however, worth drawhig aitemion to the 13 sessions in which a visiting scientist, Marilyn J. Schlitz, served as either experimenter (N = 7, 29% hits, h .08) or sender (N = 6. 67% hits. h = .36). Altogether, these sessions yielded 6 direct hits (N = 13, 46.2% hits, h = .45). This citect size is more than twice as large as that f'or the databa'se as a Whole. Status of the Evidence for Pst Communication in the Ganzfeld The automated ganzfeld studies satisfy the methodological guidelines recommended by Hyman and Honorton (1986). The re- sults are statistically significant. The effect size is homogeneous across I I experimental series and eight different experimenters. Moreover, the autoganzfeld results are consistent with the outcomes of' the earlier, nonautomated ganzfeld studies; the combined z.of 7.53 would be expected to arise by chance less than one time in 9 trillion. We have shown that, contrary to the assertions of certain critics (Drucknian & Swets, 1988, p. 175), the gatizi-eld psi effect exhibits cousisient and lawl'ul patterns of covariation found in other areas of' iii(luiry.- Tlie automated gallZFeld Studies diSpliky tile SaIIIC Pat- terns of relationships between psi performance and target type, sender/receiver acquaintance, and prior testing experience found in earlier ganzfeld studies, and the magnitude of these relationships is consistent across the two data sets. The impact of target type and send er/receive r acquaintance is also consistent with patterns in spon- umeous case Studies, linking ostensible psi experiences to emotion- ally significant events aiid persons. These findings cannot be ex- Ld32 The.lournal ij/"1'at(t/).%yrhu1qAy Q anzfeld studies, constitute evidence for psi communication. Finally, 9,e consider directions for future research suggested by these find- 811gs. C) Rival Hypotheses C) Q W Sensory Cites. Only Se knows the idenlity of the target tintil R 91nishes the autotnatedJudging procedure. If" Se is not a PRL stalf @Pember, ;I staff member not otherwise involved in the session su- cpervises target selection. In either case, the target selector knows abnly which videocassette contains the target. The target selector Reaves the monitoring room with the remaining three target tapes Ofter knocking three times on the monitoring room door, signalling 1@ to return. Since tile target selector only knows the videocassette Sumber, variations in knocking cannot communicate any useful in- (Pormation to E. The cardboard cover over the VCR eliminates any ual cues to E regarding the position of the videotape or the activ- cs of' the VU meters (which are active when the target is dyllaillic nd has -.I somidti-ack). @ Sensory transmission 1'rom Se to R during the ganz[eld session Is liminated by having R and Se in separate, sound-attenuated rooms. Rf either participant leaves their room before R's ratings have been %egistered in the computer, the session is unconditionally aborted. M The videotape target display system prevents potential handling fes during the judging procedure. Computer registration of' R's 1XII-gel ratings and automated feedhack afler tile session prevelm tile @Ro5sibility of cheating by Se during feedback, raised by Hyrnan LiLl 985). -0 After about 80% of the sessions were completed, it was becoming @lear that our hypothesis concerning the superiority of dynamic tar . I I 2ets over static targets was receiving substantial confirmation. Be- Q-use dynamic targets contain auditory as well as visual information, X 4ve conducted .1 supplemelliary test to assess tile possibility of* alldi- tory leakage from the VCR soundtrack to R. With the VCR audio "1 set to nortnal amplirication, no auditory signal could be detected through R's headphones: with or witlout white noise. When an ex- ternal amplifier was added between the VCR and R's headphones and with the white noise turned completely off, the soundtrack could sometimes be faintly detected. It is unlikely that subjects could 1'.%i Conwinnicalimi it# thr Gain. ( 133 iments. Nevertheless, to totally exclude any possibility of subliminal cueing, we modified the equipment. Additional testing confirmed that this anodificatioik ci'l'cctavcly eliniiiiated all Icakage. This was formally confirmed by an audio spectrum analysis, covering the fre- quency domain between 475 Hz and 15.2 kHz. The critical question, of course, is whether performance on dynamic targets diminished after fills illodif Ica( loll. Tile answer is ilo: ill l".1cl. pel-1,01-111a lice 1111- proved. Before the modification, the direct hit rate on dynamic tar- gets was 38% (150 trials, 57 hits, h = .28, exact binomial p .00029, z = 3.44); the 95% Cl was from 31% to 45%. Following the modification, the direct hit rate was 50% (40 trials, 20 hits, h = .52, exact binomial p = .00057, z = 3.25) with a 95% CI from 37% to 63%. The direct hit rate for all targets-static and dynamic-after the modification was 44% (64 trials, 28 hits, h = .39, exact binomial = .00082, z = 3.15). 'za Randoin' fion. As Hyman and Honorton (1986, p. 357) have pointed out, "Because ganzfeld experiments involve only one target selection per session .... the ganzf'eld investigator can restrict his or her wicntion to a 1'requency analysis allowhig assessment 4 tile de- gree to which targets occur with equal probability." We have docu- mented both the general adequacy of the RNG used for target se- lection and its proper functioning during the experiment. Data selection. Except for two pilot studies, the number of partic- ipants and trials were specified in advance for each series. The pilot or formal status of each series was similarly specified ill advance and 1,ccolAcd oil disk before beghming the series. We have reported .111 trials. includhig pilot and ongoing series, using the automated gariz- ' feld system. Thus, there is no "file-drawer" problem in this data- base. Psi ganzfeld success rate is similar for pilot and formal sessions. The proportion of hits for the 66 pilot sessions is .32 (h = .16 P .129, z = 1. 13). For the 289 formal sessions, the proportion correct is .35 (h = .22, p = .000 1, z = 3.7 1). The dil-ferelice is not sigilifi- C,111t: Y2 =0. 11. 1 df. b = .734. 11' we assume that the remaining trials in the three unfinished series would yield only chance results, these series would still be sta tistically significant (exact binomial p = .009, z = 2.36). This would reduce the overall z for all I I series from 3.89 to 3.6 1. Thus, inclu _ro_ i, L? Q Q Q T_ , Q Q Q (:) It a) 00 CD Q W L) CD _M- Q CTD, Q C14 (1) U) It L_ 0 LL > 0 CL CL provide detailed breakdowns regarding sender/receiver pairing. Sender/receivel. pairing in the lucia-allillysis Call oilly he codt-d ac- cording to whether sui)jects could bring friends to serve as their Scildcl 4)1 %vt*l c I ('%I& i( 14-41 141 1AH11 JIM )' NVII(ICI %. Ill 17 simfics, hy six independent investigators, subjects were free to bring I'Viends Womirion, 1985, Sitidies 1-2, 4, 7-8, 16, 23-28, 30, 3-1-34, 38- 40)). Laboratory-assigned scndcrs were used exclusively in the re- ining 8 studies, by four independent investigators (Studies 10 18- 19, 2 1, 21). 11). (Thl-CC Studies using' (1kil-VOYMI(V IWOC(__ ires and no senders are excluded froin this analysis.) For the au Maanzfeld studies, we calculated separate effect sizes I'Or cach series V710 sender type (combining lab friend and friend f*or comparability ath the nieta-analysis). In the incta-analysis, r.V23@ is .403; larger _s %fect sizes occurred in studies where friends could serve as sender 2.11, .023). For the autoganzfeld, as reported above, r,. is lolls are very I in the same direction. The two correlat' similar (q .05; z = 0. 14) and are combined to give a better estimate of' the alationship between sender/receiver pairing and ganzfeld study 11COMC: 1'.. .38, 1 (42) = 2.66. p .0055. The 95%, (As are 209('@ 31%, 1*01. unat'(111alilled pairs mid 31-Mi. lo -I9.2X, r friends. Thus, the sender/receiver relationship does have a sig- ficant impact on performance. A %j(fect of Prior Ganzfeld Expen*ence M. V) Q T.- I-lie rneta-analysis includes 14 studies, by nine independent in- (Skstigators, in which novices are lased exclusively (11-Ionorlon, 1985, audies 2, 4, 8, 10-12, 16-18, 23-24, 31, 4 1-42). Experienced or Pixed samples of' novice and experienced subjects are used in the iminaining 14 studies, by four different investigators (Studies 1, 7, 21, 25-30, 33-34, 38-39). Studies using experienced subjects iZere more successful than those limited to novices; the point-bis'erial r;orrelation between level of'experience and effect size is .229. t (26) 0 Le 1.20, P = .12. For (lie autoganzfeld studies, as reported above, is .078. The two correlations do not differ significantly (q = .155; 0.40), and the conibined r,, is .194,1 (38) = 1.22, p = .105. The &spective 95% Us are 21.5% to 44.5% for novices and 35.5% it) &% for experienced subjects. The 95% Us 1,01- these Coil) paral ive analyses are Shown graphi- < cally in Figure 2. The bottom two rows are Cis for the overall hit rates in the meta-anaiysis and autoganzfeld, respectively. The next AuluMovic to MeLaNovice CD _0 CD Q r_ AuLo:Slt=Lab Q 0 Q Q -Am - Auto:TC1`=SLa 00 I- AuLo-JGT=Dyn CD - CD McLa:TGT=Dyn IL Aial,igairl 1 7 1 -1.0 02 0.4 0.6 -0.11 0.8 1.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 Effect Q size (h) C11) Q Figure 2. (.oinparison of autoganzfeld and ineta-analysis 95% confidcnce@:: Q Iiiiiiis. Abbreviations arc dclined as I" ollo%VS: Meta = illela-allalysis studies,CD Auto nic iargets, = Sta = stalicC14 atitoniated ganzI`eId Studies, Dyn = dynai largels. friend or [.;If) acquaintance = a) laboratory seliders. Fr = sender is U) of' receiver, Novice = no prior ganzfeld experience, Exper = prior ganz- M 1'eld experience. two rows give the Cis for dynarnic targets in [lie two data sets. and SO 0 oil. LL DISCUSSION 0 CL CL We at might account now for< consider various rival hypotheses th the which the experimental automated outcomes, and the degree to ganzfeld with the earlier experiments, psi viewed in conjunction ildwExper 128 DieJournal of Parapsychology T_ CD Q Q TABLE 6 DIS I RIM) I ION (W Z SCORES MiniIIIIIIII Z 1.97 CD- 97 LoWC1. hinge 0.25 1. 0. 85 Median z 0.92 00-0. 33 Mean z 1.28 I- Q 0. If 222224 Upper hinge 2.08 9 o. M 6667777999 Maximum Z 4.02 666777 SD 1.44 (L H 0I I Skewness (gj 0.05 2. 0 2. 8 Kurtosis (gj -0.37 3. 01124 Combined (Stouffer)7.53 ' z 1. 9 4. 0 (Dpper and lower hinges of the distribution, and "M" identifies its 4hedian. The z's range front - 1.97 to 4.02 (mean z = 1.21, SD 5?.45). and the 95% Cl is a z from .76 to 1.66. T_ CD The combined z for the 39 studies is 7.53 (p = 9 X 10"). 5losenthal's (1984) file-drawer statistic indicates that 778 additional sudies with z scores averaging zero would be required to reduce the 2gnificance of the combined ganzfeld database to nonsignificance; Am is a ratio of 19 unknown studies for every known study. (1) IX A stem-and-leaf display of the effect sizes is shown in I-able 7. Whe effect sizes rajigc I rom -- .93 to 1.44 (nican h @ .28, SD @ .4 1). lihe two most extreme values on both sides of the distribution are -outliers. The 95%, (A is an h bctwceii .15 atid .4 1; the ctitiivalent hit P Pte is from 31.5% to 44.5%. 0 namic Versus Static Targas < The use of video sequences as targets is a novel feature of the autoganzf'cld database. flowever, ;I Couiparable differvalvd. ;11 targct type exists in the earlier ganzfeld studies. Of the 28 direct hits . stud- ies in the mem-analysis, 9 studies (hy three independent Invesfiga- tors) used View Master stereoscopic slide reels as tat-gets (Honorton, 1985, Studies 7-8, 16-19, 21, 38-39). Static targets In Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld I 2Z Q Q TABLE 7 DIS-1 RIBUTION oF EFFECT SIZES (COHEN's h) Q Stem Leaf' __ .9 :1 Q -.4 0 OUTSIDE VALUES 00 Minimum h -0.9 -.3 1 Lowei- hinge OR -.1 0 Median h 01 -.0 51 Mean h 01L .0 7771) Upper hinge 0.0 .1 H 002888 Maxinitim h I AK .2 M 133-1 SD 0.44C .3 11144777 Skewness 0.0 .4 H 01113 Kurtosis (92) 2.49- .5 7 1- Q .7 3 M .8 17 CD Ir OUISIDE VALUES CD 1.3 3 Q 1.4 4 C*4 To compare the relative impact of dynamic and static targets i 100) the autoganzfeld and meta-analysis, we obtained point-biserial c4 relations for each data set using target type (static or dynamic) a.1 the predictor variable arid the series effect. size, Colien's h, as tl 12 otitcome varialAC. We test the difference between the two correlib Lions using Cohen's q (Cohen, 1977). Dynamic targets yield signif cantly larger effect sizes in both data sets. For the meta-analysis, X?_ is .401), 1 (26) = 2.28, p = .015; and for the autoganzfeld, as to- ported above, r,, is .663. The two correlations ;ire not si'gnific ant j@ different (q = .36; z = 1.14). Therefore, we combine the-two data sets to obiain ;I better estimate of the relationship between effect size and target type: rp = .439, 1 (45) = 3.28, p = .002. The 95% Cls are 24% to 36% for static targets and 38% to 55% for dynamic tar- gets. Thus, (lie CtluitllaliVC CVidCIIce strongly indicates that dynarn Ic targets are more accurately retrieved than static targets. 126 Vie./ijurnal (!/ PartipsYchohigy candy in tile shape of* a heart. The cinnanion flavored candies that I remember as it child having at Valemine's. Rcd color....This ied its in lite cinnamon candy is ;I deep very intense red. And similarly lot- tile flaines. Aml nim I see 1he mird 'i-ed ....... 11st coinintinicafimi lit the Gan@lehl 127 'I'Ani.i:. 5 COMPARISON OF OVERALL PERFORMANCE IN AUTOMATED GANZFELD AND META-ANALYSIS DATA SETS Outcome N 94, Dynamic: Hang Gliders. 7'he sequence shova a variabli. Dalabase S111dies Mean SD I df P shier on a V- %hisk6l hitiog glidei. Vie %hit-? %wivi high oil) tibsive mime ittowird ilif ... #11,ims Z scores Meta-analysis 28 1.25 1.57 a ii(& pine j6resi. At the end, lite skier lands 0.33 25 .748 CD oil a mountain slope and skis 1 C) aiv.9 The sequence is accompanied by Pachrlbel's eld I 1 1.10 1.14 C) Canon. Amoganzf Sey-ZEES: 301. Participant ID: 188. Rank = 1. z E[Fect sizes (h) Mcm-analysis 28 .28 .4 6 Irl score = 1.26. V_ C) 0.14 28 .892 Q ' Autoganzl'eld 11 .29 .29 0.. Some kind of Q V shape, like an open hook.... I get some moton- V_ gin.... Some kind of* hird with it long wing.. .. Note. The p values are two-tailed. M The shape ol'an tipside O)wn Ski, something about skiing came to me.... CD Some kind of' -is (11ollor- --WC-Co-rtrp;.tr-C-1-1W--t-wo dautbals_ --fire -;111 ahody %V11TI-Wifigsom It 1 1, )n_ W 1)(m), oval sllapwol- li Wilys S off, r4. ape. Another 'V' like it wing shape.... Something l"Our dimensions: (1) overall success rate, (2) a) with whigs.... dynamic versus static 1 Pgain the shape of ;lit ninbrella (-;title into 1;11-gets, (3) scil(lel-/I-cceivel- paii-itig. and 00 my mind. A bmirdly (4) novice verstis experi- C@hapc ...... eliced sub* C) iects. C) C) 1 7'a l 80, Dynamic: Bugs Bunny lit Space. lit this cartnon, there 1.V a close- lip the lower part of a ci@gar-shaped rockelship Overall Success Rate and the supports holding l it Vie rocket mseinbly %lldrs over to the launching pad, direcily above 3 t To assess tile consistency of' results, we compare W Bunny's underground patch. Tile scene shifts to the I Fauto- I the underground 1 it I , - anzl' Id series to the 28 studies in ;I inela-analysis< "I of' carlier ganz- P ig, as Bugs Bunny climbs up the ladder leading g. e oul of hii patch. Uli- kn&Xng@y, he clinobs zip through the interior qf feld studies (Honorton, 1985, Table Al, p. 84), 0 the rockelf/tip. 77he rocket'.% using direct hits as f 'tile) space. Vie rockel'.% mme cone lite dependent variable. The outcomes ol'the iwo pull away and then it takes (!f I daia sets are con- * ' Apijo tis Bugs Bunny appears through the lup and tile he sees the E'arlh recede posiLive outcomes: 23 of CD sistent. Both display a predominance of ralaly in the distance. As thesequence ends, Bugs 28 studies lit the meta-analysis (82%) and 10 of 'M Bunny Is hit in Me belly the I I autoganzfeld by Zomet. series (9 1 %) yield positive z scores. The mean CD autoganzfeld z scores Se'r' : 302. Participant ID: 292. Rank = 1. z scoreand effect sizes are very similar to those in the = 1.48. meta-analysis. (See CD rdS CD Table 5.) CD CN... Space craft.... The solar system. The underside C*4 ol'a helicopler or (D submarine or some kind of' fish that yoti're seeing 1rom under- U) Cueath.... Sort (if' being underneadi il. Sort ol'beingCombined Eslitnates of Canzfeld Success Rate tinderoicadi h.... A _%ry sirange image like ;I cartoon character, animaied characler. With is mouth open kind of'.... Like ;I hypodermic needleBecause the z scores and effect sizes for tile automated or a candle or gawfeld h l lik i id i t e th are consistent with the original set of 28 studies i t in the meta-analysis, is s a t le a pointed top again.... missiles ng w flying.... Ali aerial perspective.... I'm just kinda better estimate of their true population values 0 of'editing here I think. may be obtained by 4s-n really hoping all this rockeiship kind of imagery LL isn't because ol'the combining them. I"ositive outcomes were obtained ' in 33 of the 39 Tise. I 1'ecl like I'm in a r(ickcishil) or s(olnethilig....Thal a image of Ihe Table 6 shows a (D Studies (85%); the 95% Cl is front 69% to 99% (@hip going into tile belly ol'the mother ship ....... > stem-and-leaf frequency plot of the z scores (Tukey,0 1977). Unlike CL other methods of displaying frequency distributions,CL the stem-and- CL CL COMPARISON OF STUDY OUTCOMES W1111 leaf' plot retains the numerical data precisely. (Turned on its side, tile ' siein-and-leaf conventional histogram.) Each plot beconies (;ANZI:1;1.1) META-ANAISSIN In this section, we compare the automated ganzfeld study out- comes with the results ofearlier ganzfeld studies, summarized in.a it ntimber includes ;I stent and one or more leaves. For example, tile stem I is followed by leaves of 6,6,6,7,7,7, representing z scores of 1.6,1.6,1.6,1.7,1.7,1.7. In the display, the letter "H" identifies the Thr.1mitual ol Pmap@ythology 0 feeling of being in an ;airplane out ofirly mind. Flying over Greenland and Iccland when I went it) England.... Uvels like we're goilig higher v- and higher.... Descending. It seems we're descending.... Big airplanes 0 0 flying over with people like tile slating down.... Flying arotoldl ill a piece of' tin.... Feel like I'm getting it G-force. Maybe I ain taking oll'. C1 0 Stirc I"Cels like it. Feels like we're going siraighl ill).... I always i'Cel like when I'm oil tile plane going home. [Just bope that plane makes ii past the Rocky Mountains ...... 00 ryrget 10, Static: Santa and Coke. This is a Coca-Cola Christmas adfroin 1950s, showing Santa Claus holding a Coke bottle in his left hand; three lions are ilisible on Santa's still. Behind Santa and to his left, is a large Alittle cap with the Coca-Cola logo leaning against an ornamented Christina% 24%. S lei: 104. Participant ID: 332. Rank = 1. zscore = 1.1-1. There's a man with a dark beard and lie's got a sharp face.... There's another man with a beard. Now there's green and white and lie's in bushes and lie's sort of colonial. He looks like Robin I lood alld CV) lie's wearing a hat.... I can see him from behind. I can see his hat and 52 lie has a sack over his shoulder.... Window ledge is looking down and there's a billboard that says 'Coca-Cola' oil it.... There's a snowinall again and it's got a carrot for a nose and three black buttons coming N down the front .... There's a while beard again. There's a man with a 0) while beard .... .Mere's an old mail with a beard ...... M rget 70, Dynamic: Dancing in NY City Streets. From the film "I lie Wiz." span of yellow-pai,ed bridge oiwr a body (!f water and aultittlabile I?-(!Ilir ifavisible in the opening scene, the New York City skyline i in the back- Xwund. A hot-air balloon 111PS oi,erhead. The scene sh@/tv as Doroiliv (Diana lbss), her dog Toto, the Lion, Tin Mail, and Scarecrow dance along the bWdge: one of the bridge's supporting arches Lis behind theim. The Chry5ler ,E'wIQildlng is in the backgTound. At the end of the sequence, the characters IMMI-ce in front of a painted backdrop of all old-fashioned building. UEE Sties: 105. Participant ID: 336. Rank = 1. z score = 1.40. **Bicr colorful hol. air balloons.... White brick wall.... Occall.... People walking before my eyes. Several people.... A dog. Hot air balloon .... a nightclub singer.... Back of a woman's head, short curly hair .... Water.... Balloon, big balloon.... Yellow.... Very lall boilding. Look- ing down at a city. Leaving a city, going up.... Faces. An arc.... 1'.%i Conintutiffatilm /it the Gait'll-I'l 125 Bay. A lion.... Highways .... Lion, see a lion .... Tornado.... Bal- loon.... Face mask.... City .... Leaning Tower of' Pisa.... Long hall- wity, doorway.... Long road. Long, long desert road.... Target 22, Dynamic: Spiders. Front the docianentary "Life oft Earth." A spider is weamng its web. The spiders long legs spring tip and down re- peaiedly, weaving strands of'the web. The body of the spider is constantly in to f the iwins of the inot it, and bounces tip and down. A close-up shows one o I web being sit-etched out by the spider. Various vieus qJ'lhe web. Series: 301. Participant ID: 146. Rank = 2. z score = 0.65. Now visual patterns more like a spider web and the color. And then like the form of the veins of a windmill.... Something like a spider web again. A spider web. A pattern that instead of a spider web it looks like baskei weaving.... Ali iniage oftlic way some chiltircti wel-c able to (it) something like flying when I was a child though I never had one. It was a-forgotten what it was called-a pogo stick or ajump stick, something in which you jumped up and down and you could hop quite a distance by doing so.... I have kinesthetic images all over as in vigorous motion expi essed in flying or jumping on this sort ofspring stick that I rnen- tioned.... Vigorous motion. It's as though I were (rying to combine re- laxation with participating in all image of something very vigorous.... I really feel cairied away by these images of vigorotis activity without being able to localize this activity as to what it Is.... Target 108, Static: Two fire eaters. A young fire eater, in the foreground, facing to the right of the picture, blows a hugeflame out of his mouth. fit the background there is anoiltri-fire eater. A Arroup of people are watching oil the left side of'the picture. Series: 301. Participant ID: 146. Rank = 1. z score = 1.71. ... I keep having images of flames now and then.... The sound re- minds me of flames too.... I find flames again .... In these new images the fire takes oil a very menacing meaning .... Rather mountainous sticking tip of bare rocks just as though they had come from a re5ently formed volcano. Volcanos of course get back to the fire, extreme heat. I had ;in image of a volcano with molten lava ill5ide the crater. Molten lava running down the side of the volcano.... Cold. Written out there behind the visual field and thinking how it contrasts with my images of Hames. Although my images of flames didn't actually include much real feeling oflicat. I didn't have any imagery of beat in connection with tile Haines. Just abstract thought of flames.... Now I think of the water as Of) W GO 1- 0 0 I a W 04 (D Z 0 LL Z (D > 0- CL CL 122 AeJournal qJ Parapsychology around his shoulders. A dog iv lit Irma ol'the mail; there are watermelt)mt between the dag and the mail. The man faces a dirt path with watermelml patches on either side. On the left side, another mail piLvites a wherlharrou, filled ullth huge waierineloms. Series: 101. Participant ID: 105. Rank = 2. z score = 0.98. to 4M .if small lanil), very soft. outside. Small, playful.... I see it *V' sgpe.... An apple.... I see a kitchen towel with a picture oil it. Apple A@cls or a fruit cut in half showing the seeds. A tomato or all apple. -5e fruit was red oat the outside.... I thought of watermelon as in a ermelon basket. Thinking of kids playing on a beach. Lillie kids *ying Willi balls that are bigger than they are and buckets that are ee-quarters their size.... I had a thought of going through a tunnel, ol- L;nei cif iiintiel win see oil Earth but tile tvt)e of tunnel described someone dies," Tar 64, I)ynantic: 1920.s Car Sinking. I-rom thefilin "(;ho.%t Stoty.- The sceildepicts the murder of a youiw blonde zvoirian by three young men III the 620s. Tile men are all wearing suits; one of the men is wearing a fedq& hat that is turned up in the back. The men push art old car into a lakeCYhe camera shifts between close-ups of theirfacial expressions, and the car,O@j at slowly sinks into the water. Tile womansface and hand appear lit the gr's large rectangular rear window; she silently screams out for help. TheQar disappears beneath the water as the sequence ends. Seij@s: 102. Participant ID: 154. Rank = 1. z score = 1.45. Q -1 Willi a haircut.... B Io 114 1 1 iai r. . . . A CA 1% . . . 'I 'I IC I );1(7k (if' soine- C0 one's head.... Someone rtiolling to tile right .... sonleolle fill file right T" a hrowii suit ... and a fedora hat turned up very much in tile gck.... Fedora. trench coat, dark tie.... A tire of a car. The car's going q'd tile left. Ali old movie.... ['in picturing an Edward G. Robinson ovie.... Big roundish car like 1940's. Those scenes from the back will- M dpw. Dumping once iii it while up and down looking Lhl-0Ugll [lie back Anclow you could see that it was probably a big screen in back of' tile and tile car's sianding still acitially.... I think it's it movie I saw. 11111ey're being shot at and shooting at tile window and then tile girl gets Qot.... Girl with tile blonde haircut.... Someone walking in a suit, Wrown Suit.... It's tile 1940's again, 30's maybe. Except it looks like it*S color. Something red, blood ... blood on someone's lap.... A dead erson all of a sudden.... A big mouth opened. Yelling, but no 8 sound.... Two people running near a train.... Dressed in 1920 type its with balloony pants, like knickers... @ A big, old-fashioned white car 0 ...A _jet plaiie.... A 747 on the way to Greece. Blue skies. Sounds like CL CL it's going higher.... I think I'm back on the plane again. I never used to be afraO of' flying until recently ..... Fhey need betler instilated Jets, s0uodprouf like these "00"Is. TheY could use these comfortable seats, too. And the leg room. 'File service isn't bad either.... Still can't get the 120 Thrjouynal (I Pasali%ythtdogy U) Sulmaty '5 0 @:he randomness tests denionstrate that the RNG used low larget seldgion in these experiments provides an adequate source of ran dortr numbers and was l'unctioiiing properly during tile experi 01) 00 EXAMPLES OF TARGET-MENTATION CORRESPONDENCES Ibis section, we present some exaniples of' (-Orl-es el ](-(-s betwen targets and ganzfeld inentation. Although conclusions can- lot e drawn fron) qualiuuivc dam, this inaierial should not he ig- :ior&. It constitutes the raw data on which the objective statistical evid.k1ce is based, and may provide important insights concerning tile- -1 nderlying process. I*hese examples are excerpts from sessions Of subjects' garizfeld mentation reports, identified by them during thegind judging procedure'as providing their basis f'Or ramig tile tarQ5. Tar-MV 90, Static: Dali's "Chri.%t Crurilird." sel-Z I. Partirilmni 11): 77. Rank = 1. z scure = 1.07. C14 "(1) . I think of'guides, like spirit guides, leading me and I come into like or aclouri with a kiug. It's quiet.... It's like heavcn.The king is something LRe Jesus. Woman. Now I'm just sort of' summersaulting through . (1) ven.... Brooding.... Aztecs, the Sun God .... High priest .... tv. lir.ar.... Graves. Woman. Prayer.... Funeral .... I)ark. Death .... W'Ouls.... Ten Commandments. Moses...." Tarj@ 77, Dynamic: Tidal wavr rugitying ancietal city. P'rom "The Chish (Y'.114-07'itaus," a film based an Greek iu.ytholoo. A huge lidal wavc crashrs into Je shore. The scene shifts to a center courtyard of an ancient Greek city; re is a statue in the center, and buildings with Greek columns around gr_-@ the prwiphery. People are running to escape contumption by the tidal wave. Water rushes through the buildings, destroying the columns and the statue; people scurry through a stone tunnel, just ahead of the enguying water; debrisfloats through the water. Series: 1. Participant ID: 87. Rank = 1. z score = 1.42. ... The city of Bath Comes to mind. The Romans. The reconsiroc6oii 11s) Communic(Ition in the GanzIeld 121 Holy See. Tables floating about.... The number 7 very clearly. Thatjust J)ol)I)C(l out of' nowhere. It rellsinds me a bit of* oue of' the first Chsh aibums, however. 'rhe Clash, "I'wo Sevens" I think it was called, I'm not Sure ...... [The target was number 77.1 Series 302. Participant ID: 267. Rank = 1. z score = 2.00. big storm over New York City. I'm assuming it's New York City. No, it's San Francisco.... A big storm and danger. It looks so beautiful but I'm getting the sense of danger from it.... It's a storm. An earth- quake ...... Target 63, Dynamic: Horses. From the film, "The Lathe of Heaven." An overhead view offive horses galloping in a snow siorm. The camera zooms in oil the horses as they gallop through the snow. The scene shifts to a close- up of a single horse t7`0111ng in a grassy meadow, first at normal speed, then in slow-motion. The scene shifts again; the same horse trotting slowly through empiy city streets. Series: 101. Participant ID: 92. Rank = 1. z score = 1.25. f keel) going to tile mountains .... It's snowing.... Moving again, this linle if) tile lefi,spililling 141 tile lel'i .... Spinning. Like on a carousel, 14 brsc%. III irsvs (111 .1 ca I o I Ist.l. .1 4-i r( I Is . . . . . Target 46, Dynam' : Collaps* g B Newsreel footage of the col ic in ridge lapse of a bridge the 1940s. 'File bridge is swaying back andforih and up and down. Light posts are swaying. The bridge collapses from the center into the water. ipant ID: 135. Rank = 1. z score = 1.94. Series: 101. Partic Something, some vertical ob ect bending or swaying, almost some- J thing swaying in the wind.... Some thin, vertical object, bending to tile 5oine kind of' ladder-like structure but it seems to be aimost blowing in the wind. Almost like a ladder-like bridge over some kind of chasm that's waving in the wind. This is. not vertical this is horizon- tal.... A bridge, a drawbridge over something. It's like one of those old English type bridges that Opens Up front either side. The middle part cornes up. I see opening. it's opening. There was a Hash of an old English stone bridge but then back to this one that's opening. The bridge is lifting, both sides now. Now both sides are straight up. Now it's closing again. It's closing, it's coming down, it's closed. Arc, images of arcs, arcs, bridges. Passageways, many arcs. Bridges with many, U1 0 0 01) 00 I'- 0 a- 04 (D 0) M (D 7j-D 0 LL V (I) > 0 CL CL 118 VieJournal qf Paraft@ychnlogy 11st Coinumnication M the Gan@feld 119 Gantfeld Experienre advqllacy of' otir ralidonliz;llion procedure according 10 gtlidefine-s Two 111111dred alld Cighlecil pal-licipaills had their first experi- agreed oil by Hyman and Honorlon (1986). ence as ganzfeld receivers in tile autoganzfeld series. (This includes Global 'fests of Random Number Generator i lie fnNovice Series 10 1 - 105 and 12 novices it) Series 1.) For all 1)[11 to 24 44%), their initial autoganzf'eld session provided their first ex- Full-range frequency analysis. As described earlier, autoganzfeld -1L perisice as participant in any parapsychological r s(.- -(-I . ()I' I - -ogi.;lin (,all to the RNG foi- valties CD e .11 1 l it largels ;It-(* selecied through ;l Ill CD 218C@pvices, 71 (32.5%, h .17) correctly identified dleir target (ex- within the target range (I - 160). The number of* experimental ses- CD I I act binomial p = .0073, z 2.44). sions (N = 355) is too small to assess the RNG output distribution st-ticipantS Will] some ganzf"eld experience contributed 137 for tile 1' 11 range, so we perflormed a large-scale control series to CD tl CD triaMand 51 hits (37%, h = .26, p = .001, z = 3.09). When series test the distribution of values. Twelve control samples were col- T. VV M effeR sizes are used as the tioli of- aiialysis and prior ganzfeld ex- lecied. These included five samples with 156,000 trials, six samples CD is .078, t (I - with-1TRW -triatU.- ifiRt 0-11 of* 1,560,000 iria periMice is used as the predictor variable, rp 0) = 0. 2 5, C Sample k.@F "etTesuft- IX p a__4 I. The 95% Ci for novices is it hit rate from 25.5% to 49.5%. ing-chi-square values were compared to a chi-square distribution M CO with 155 df, 'I II&CI for experienced participants is Ironi 29% to 50%. using the Kohnogorov-Smirnov (KS) one-sample test. CO CD that tile RNG CD CD The KS test yields a two-tailed p = .577, indicating CD Pariffipation by PRL Laboratoyy Staff used in these experiments provides a uniform distribution of values throughout the f'uII target range.' Test of frequency dist *butz n for Set 20. We used a single target set r completeness, we report the contribution of laboratory staff 0 as Jsu (Set 20) in Series 302rl We repeated the frequency analysis in a W jects in this database. PRL staff members contributed 12 ses- I I Is R. These sessions yield 3 hits (exact binomial p = .50; h 40,000-trial control sample, restricting target selection to the four < Lli-get VillUes within Set 20 (Targets 77-80). A chi-square test of the disiribution of' iargets %vidiiii Set 20 shows that tile RNG woduces it tint ( -ill distribution of'the target values within the set: X@' = 3.19, CD lVhigNotse and Ganzfeld Illumination Levels 3 df, p = .363. CO CD CD te mean while noise level (ill arbilrary units ol'O-7.5) is 2.97 9 (sDcx- 1.77). As measured from the headphones, the mean noise levetis approximately 68 dB. The mean light intensity (arbitrary unitwof 0-100) is 73.8 (SD = 26.1). Preferred noise and light ill- tens& levels are highly correlated: r = .569, t (353) = 12.99. Writher noise nor light in(ensity is significantly related to ganz f'eldOoerf'ormajice. The point-biserial correlation between hits and .p noist"Olevel is .026,1 (353) 0-18, p = .63 1, two uliled. For light ii itel4sity, rp is -.040, 1 (353) 0.76, p = .449, two tailed. 0 L_ CL RANDOMNESS TES-1-.S CL < The adequary of, ra 114 loll lizal iol I was .1 111.1'jor source of, disagree- ment in two meta-analytic reviews of' earlier psi ganzf`eId research O-Ionorton, 1985; Hyman, 1985). In this section we document the T_ 7'esis (fthe E'xPerintental RNG Usage CD C) Each autoganJeld session required two RNG calls. An RNG call C*4 ;it tile beginuing of' tile session determined the target; another, U) made before the judging procedure, determined the order in which a) tile target and decoys were presented forjudging. Z Distribution of targets in the experiment. A chi-square test of the dis- [ribulioll oI, vallics within (lie largel sets shows lhat tile largets were 0 selected unif'ormly from among the Iour possibilities within each set; LL 2 X with 3 df is 0.86, p = .835. Distribution of 'udging order. A chi-square test of the judging order > 1 0 indicates that tile targets were unil'ornily distributed aniong tile four C X2 CL possible judging sequences: the with 3 df is 1.85, p = .604. CL "()nt. oF the ptrviv%v patk r1renews for Scl 6, (tintaheisig Targeis 21-2-1. w;ks damagcd. This icquired littering the RNG calls in the experiment and WIM-01 tests 10 bypass the damaged portion of the videotape. leaving the targets in Pool 6 unuscd. Thus, [Or the full-range analyscs reporied here, there aic 155 df rathcr than 159. ThrJournal of Awaljqrhiplagry 0 TAm.v. 3 0 GANZFEIA) Sll(:(:t'-%S IN RELA I ION it) Ntst-nit:K OF SENSIONS 0 No. of sessions as receiver 0 1 2 3 4 + 1@ii Ci)mmunlcahan in thr Gan@11'hl 117 TAm.F. 4 Sv.Nuv.PJRF(:Ftvvtt PAHUNG Sender as: VlbieCls 183 23 2-t 11 .ials 183 -if; 72 5.1 N trials J 0 1 53 19 31 19 N hits "its 29 -11 43 :15 OX, I lits Vct size .09 .34 .38 .22 Effect size (h) M -Baied A naly.4% .Seventy-six percent of' tile participants (N 183) contributed a si le session as R. Fifty-eight Rs contributed multiple sessions. Par- ti4ants with multiple sessions either had direct hits or strongly sWestive target inentation correspondences ill their first session. (-Se Table 3.) Ouccess rate by subjects. To test the consistency of ganzfeld perfor- nQbce across participants, we use tile slandal-clized ratings of tile ta@et and decoys (Stanford's z scores; StanfOrd & Sargent, 1983) as 1 he4depenclent variable. Stanford zs are averaged For participants wi multiple sessions. Direct hits and slallf'Ord ZS are higilly corre Ml latal. In this database, N ('153) is .776. The mean stalifOrd z low tile 24 participants is .21 (SD = 1.04), and t (240) = 3.22 (p = .00073). T& 95% Cl is a StanfOrd z Front .08 to .35. The effect size (CoheWs d; Cohen, 1977) is .2 1. (The effect size for subjects is nearly identical tZe trial-based effect size, h = .20.) Thus, there is a general ten- deacy for participants to give higher ratings to thc aciual large[ tho to the decoys. and tile sigiWicmice ofthese ex en i. not perini ts s - attsh"table to exceptional perfOrIllance Ily a few cluislancling Still- jed& CL Dynamic Versus Static Targets The success rate for dynamic targets is highly significant. are 190 dynamic target sessions and 77 direct hits (40%, h = exact binomial p = 1.9 x 10", z = 4.62). The hit rate for targets is not significant (165 trials. 45 hits, 27%, h = .05, p = P Lab Lab friend Friend 1,10 66 1-15 46 24 52 33 36 36 .18 .24 .24 2.01 1.93 2.83 .0211026 .0023 3.65, p = .002.` The 95% Cl for dynamic targets is a hit rate from 34% to 47%. The CI for static targets is from 21% to 34%. Thus, clur hypothesis concerning the superiority of dynamic targets is strongly supported. SendrilRece'zler Pa'r' I Ing Receivers are inore Successful with friends than with laboratory senders, although the difference is not statistically significant. The 111111,I)cr ()f sessic)lls ill this analysis is 351 I)ecause i'mr sub, .1ects opted to have no sender. The best performance occurs with friend ilders. Sessions with laboratory senders, aithough significatit, have the lowest success rate. (See Table 4.) Using series effect sizes as the unit of analysis and sender type as tile predictor variable (combining lab friend and friends), r 1) is 7 th .363, t(17) = L61, p = .0635 . The 95% CI 1',r sessions wit friends Is ;I hit raic from 33.3% to 47%. For lab senders, tile Cl is from 18.3% to 41.8%. Thus, although the effect of' sender type is not statistically significant, there is a trend toward better resufts with friends. " Separate effect sizes were obtained for the dynamic and static target sessions of There each series. Since Series 302 used dynamic targets only, the analysis is based on I I .32; dylianlic large[ effect sizesalld 8 static target effcct sizes: two static target series (105 static and 201) had extremely small sample sizes (2 and 3 sessions, respectively). A similar .276, procedure is use([ in tile analyses ol'sender/receiver pairing and experienced versus 0 V_ V_ 0 0 V_ CV) 0 0 (7) 00 0 (1) 0) a- C14 0 LL 'a a) > 0 C CL CL 4 1 14 DieJour7tal of I'arapsychololD TABLE I Ou-rcomE BY SERIES Series N N Hits Effect size Seriesty pe subjectstrialsN % (h) Z te) - I Pilot 19 22 H 36 .25 '99 I 2a Pilot 4 9 3 33 .18 .25 3(:) Pilot 25 36 10 28 .07 .22 C) 101v--Novice 50 50 12 24 -.02 -.30 102T"Novice 50 50 18 36 .24 1.60 C) I03C)Novice 50 51) 15 30 .11 .67 T_ 104 Novice 50 50 IM 36 .24 1.60 M 105(:)Novice 6 6 11 67 .87 1.78 20-1 Experienced3 7 3 43 .38 .69 W 301 Experienced25 50 15 30 .11 .67 CD 00 3021-Experienced 25 25 16 64 .81 3.93 CD 9 Overall 241 355 12234 .20 3.89 f A NoffFhe z scores are based on the exact binornial probability with p .25 anda = .75. w RESUIA-S 0 Overall Success Rate CD ;;@nzfeld hit rate. There were 241 PartiCipantS, Who Contributed 35Qutoganzfeld sessions. The 122 direct hits (34.4%) yield an exact bin=nial p of' .00005 (z = 3.89). The effect size, Cohen's It (Cohen, 197@Q, is .20. The 95% confidence interval (CI) is a lilt rate froin 301Ywo 39%. Because (his level of accuracy would occur about mie tim Phi 20,000 by chmice, we reject dic mill hypothesis. (See Table &ccess rate by series. Of the I I series, 10 yield positive outcomes. Thejmean series effect size is .29, SD = .29, 1 (10) = 3.32. Amogrenelly of effect sizes. Traditionally, psi investigators have U_ - beelb preoccupied by whether there is a significant nonzero effect. An aqually important issue, however, is the size ofthe effect. There is Arowing tendency among behavioral scientists to define replic abili@k in terms of the homogeneity of effect sizes (Hedges, 1987; on son,4088). When I tests are reported on samples with unequal variances, they are calculated using the separate variances within groups for the error and degrees of freedom following Brownlee (1965). Combined zs are based on Stouffer's method (Rosenthal, 1984). Unless otherwise specified, p levels are one-tailed. ]@@i Goin tit untratitin tit the, Geut@fi,ld 115 'FAM.F. 2 Ou-rcomE ity Exi-FRiMFNTER N Hits Effect Experimenter trials N % size (h) to Qualit 106 38 36 .2-1 11-L C) Honorton 72 27 38 .29 C) Bet gt@r 5:1 18 3.1 .2o C) V_ Derr 45 12 27 .05 T_ C) X@krvoglis 43 11 26 .03 C) St lacchier 5 36 .23 T_ Ferrari 15 9 60 .72 M C) 2 St.61ii- Rosenthal, 1986; Utts, 1986). Two or more studies are replicates of@ one another if their effect sizes are homogeneous. We assess this homogeneity of effect sizes across the I I series by performing a chi@b square homogeneity test comparing the effect size for each seriet with the weighted mean effect size (Hedges, 1981; Rosenthal, 1984)0 The 1,01-111ula Is: 2(k _ 1) )2, 0 X N,(hj - T, CD where k is dic number of" studies, N, Is the sample size of' (lie ItIr-O-) study, and the weighted mean effect size Is: CD C) CD N,h, C*4 (1) U) M N. (D w The test shows that the series effect sizes are not significantly 11011-" 0 homogeneous: 16.25, 10 df, p = .093. LL flomogeneity oj'Outcome by Expenmenter > 0 Eight Es contributed to the autoganzfeld database. (See Table 2.)CL CL All eight experimenters have positive effect sizes. A chi-square ho@< inogeneity'test, using the mean effect sizes for each E weighted by sample size, indicates that the results are homogeneous across ex- perlinenters: X 2 = 7.13, 7 df, p @ .415. Q QSrile.s 7. This pilol series Was a praclice series for participants Mg) Completed the allotted uUIIIIJCr (if SCSSiOnS III Ongoing 101-111al sryes but who wanted additional ganzfeld experience. This series a9b includes several demonstration sessions when TV film crews Ir v4we present and provided receiver experience for new PRL staff. _CM 1,5e sample size was not preset. W Stice ("First-7iiners") Serie.% Q gThe identification of characteristics associated with successful in- i.em W performance was a major goal of the PRL ganzfeld project (111onorton & Schechter, 1987). Except for Series 105, each novice s@es includes 50 ganzFeld novices, that is, participants with no p4or ganzfeld experience. Each novice contributed a single ganz- `1 session. Most novices had not participated in any psi experiment prior to the novice series. [*-Series 101. This is the first novice series. Q Sen'es 102. Beginning with this series, R was prompted after the M nentation period to estimate the number of' minutes since the end oe;lle relaxation/insirtictions tape. CD enes 103. Startin with this series, Rs were given the option of' 04@ 9 h4bing no sender (i.e., "clairvoyance" condition). Only four partici- p#ts opted to have no sender. (bSeries 104. A visiting scientist (Marilyn Schlitz) served its E in sekii sessions and as Se in six sessions with subjects from The Juil- liaLd School in New York. 0 LLSeries 105. This series was started to accommodate the overflow 04juilliard students from Series 104. The sample size was set to 25. S" sessions were completed at the time the PRL program was sus- 1 poded. (There were 20 Juilliard students altogether. Sixteen were iAeries 104 and four were in Series M.) Experienced Subjects Series Series 201. This series involved especially promising subjects. The number of trials was set to 20. Seven sessions by three Rs were completed at the time the PRL program was suspended. Series 301. This series compared dynamic and static targets. 11.4 Cinnymottrall'On in the Gam/irld I IT Q Q natnic iargels and one session with static targets. Sul)iecis were itp lbrined of this only after completing both sessions. Series 302. This series used it single dynarnic target set (Set 208 In earlier series, Target 77 ("Tidal Wave Engulfing Ancient City % had an especially strong success rate while Target 79 ("High-Speeifi Sex Trio") had never been correctly identified. We made two prf@ gram modifications for this series. The target selection ("Randonm ize") 'routine was modified it) select only targets In Set 20, and tlp_ VCR tape-centering routine was modified to wind the videotape 19 a randomly selected position between frame numbers 85,000 an6b 95,000. The second modification insured that E could not be cuet perhaps unconsciously, by the time required to wind the tape frolm its initial position to the target location. W The study involved experienced Rs who had no prior experienNk with Set 20. Each R contributed one session- Participants were uz- aware of the purpose of the study or that it was limited to one targel' set. -File design called for the series to continue until 15 sessioqb were completed with each ol'the two targets of interest. Twenty-fiveo Q sessions were completed when the PRL prograin was suspended. Q Q Slatishcal Analysis 04 U) Except for two pilot series, series sample sizes were specified Ifb advance. OLIF primary hypothesis was that the observed succesE rate-the proportion of correctly identified targets-wouid reliabw exceed the null hypothesis expectation of .25. To test this hypoth" esl we calculated the exact binomial probability for the observelil- number of' direct hits (ranks of 1) with p = .25 and q = .75. 01 ig the basis ol'the overwhelmingly positive outcomes ofearlier studies> 0 we preset alpha to .05, one-tailed. We also tested two secondary hypotheses, based on l3atterns o& success in earlier psi ganzfeld research. These are: (1) thatdynanli4 targets are significantly superior to static targets, and (2) that per- fill-niance ;s significantly enhanced. when the sender is ;I lfriend of R. compared to when R and Se are not acquainted. We initially planned to test these hypotheses by chi-square tests, a trial-based analysis. However, a consultant (Dr. Robert Rosenthal) suggested that a I test using the series as the unit would be a more powerful A 40-point rating scale then appears on R's TV monitor. The scale is labelled 09('. oil tile left and 100% oil tile right. tisiiiga (-oil)- I)LltCr-gMllC I)addIC to Move it poillicl- lkorizolitally aCroSS tile raliog scale, R indicates the degree of similarity between his ganzf-eld men- tation and each potential target. E and Se view R's ratings on their nibnitors. Tile program checks I`Or ties, and, if'they occur, R re-rates 11'st Cominunlration lit the Gan@leld III worked with Honorton at Maimonides Medical Center and were Ilailled b%, him. Bri-ger is primarily 1-(.Sl)olksil)l(. lot. Ille lechilical im- plernenta'tion of' the autoganzi-eld system. He trained flonortoil, Derr, Varvoglis, and Schechter in its use. Honorton trained Quant, Ferrari, and Schfitz in tile use of the al.1toganzfeld system." to tlkd. four candidates to obtain unique ratings for each. The program C) it& converts R's ratings into ranks. A rank of I is Experimenial Series C) assigned to the c2odidate R believes has the strongest similarity C) to his ganzfeld men- taoon; a rank of 4 is given to the candidate R believesAltogether, 241 participants contributed 355 sessions is least like in I I s higganzfeld experience. ries. To fully address the issue of selective reporting, we incluc@ every sessloo completed 1'rom tile inatigtiration of' the experinien FJZhach and Post-Session Procedures in Februar)@ 1983, to September, 1989, when the IIRL I'acility wsp closed. Thus, this database has no "file-d rawer" W proUlem (Rosmillig (D TAfter R finishes judging, Se leaves the sender's 1984). 00 room and enters Rg! i room w The studies include three pilot series and eight th E. Se reveals the actual targei, which tile computerformal seriel- Q aig)matically disphkys oil R'sTV monitor. The sessionFive of'the f'Ormal series were single-session studies dala ;are writ- with novice paq ted)to a floppy disk file. ticipallts. 'I'lle reinaiiiing three [Ormal series involved experienct4l a)Following feedback, E is prompted to backup the participants. series data The tar d& et videocassette is then ut i ll d . a omat ca y woun to a po- g sif*n near tile cen(cr of' the videocassette fframe 50 000) F sclecls . I'llot Series , "4alysis" f'rom tile Series Manager menu and obtains a hardcopy piatout of* (lie session data file. The printout includes:Serl 'es 1. j-his initial 1)" lot series was conducted tile file during tile deve? ' nipe, R opment and testing of the autoganzfeid system. it s name and ID number, series type, session number, served to test s)b- Se's ' naame, E Q s initials, date and start time, target number, targetto detect and correct prograrnming errors, and R position tem operation ' inolle set, R , s target ranking, the standardized target rating (z fille-lont. session timing I'llociions. Nineleen stil)iecis contributed 2Q SC!Pc). target jildgilig sc(Itit'lict'. 1;11*gt*l including IRI, sialt Illellibers, had prior C, liallic. largcl lypc and sel Seven sessions as Rs b [Usiber, sender type, light and white noise levels, . finish time, and , ' -lence as Rs in nonautornated ganz1'eid studies at l Maimonidg@ pet olf4ona experimenter s comments. The printout is atiached to E's noIlts on R's nientation and placed in a ring binder Medical Center. The remaining 12 Rs were novices conta Ining all with no pri% sucw information for the series. The audio tape of ganzfeld experience. Series sample size was not specified tile session is sim- 'in advanct the series continued until we were satisfied that illy filed. the system was oIR (1) erating reliably. W Series 2. This pilot series was designed by Berger Extrimeniers in ;in attemR1 to avert potential displacement effects and subjectjudging LL proble 1 -dight Es contributed to the autoganzfeld database. by having E rather than R serve asjudge. R received Honorion, feedback 0 to tile actual target. Four participailts contributed on@of the originators of'the psi ganzfeld technique, to this seri has conducted I ' s dip psayatizf*eld experiments over a 16-year period. DerrNine of the planned 50 sessions were completed before and Varvoglis Berger L_ am parture 1'rorn I1'RL when this series was discontinued. CL CL 20@mad 302. It does not apply io tile earlier series 4g (pilo, Scric.... 1-2: Novice Series i I() 102 E i d -voglis have thwtorate degrees ; or ll psycho ogy. Q11a ence Berger, Schechter. and val I xper Series 301).This practice was initiated becatise participants frequently failed it) identify obvious corrcs1lorAcuicesholdsa masters degree in cotniselling psychology,arid between their niciriation and Ferrari has a bachelors degree target elcmcnts. ill psychology. Schlitz has conducled i Ildcpell (jell I gallZI-eld alld I-0110te-ViMing I-e- search in other laboratories and has a masters dcgree in anthropology. TheJournal of Paraps@ychology Q .2 The program determines the target set and video- ister memory emsette number I'l'out tile target value. The videocassette uumber is (&played oil the moniior, and TS is prompted to insert it into tile @R,R. 'File prograin vcrifics diat tile cori-cci videovassetie has been i0erled and clears [lie Illonitor screen; 11' [lie videocassette is not dOrrect,;in error message prompts 'I'S to insert [lie correct Vi(IC() sette. 4 00 TS places a cardboard cover over the VCR's front panel to con- I- 0=1 the digital counters and VU meters. Finally, 'I'S leaves the mon- ifiring room with the three remaining videocassettes, knocking twf cc times on the monitoring room door as a signal fin- E to return. a- I@axaiion Exercises and Ganzfehl InvirucilOnS R and Se undergo a 14-initi prerecorded relaxation exercise bc- f(Re the irientation/sending period. This provides it unique shared eNlerience for R and Se before the ESP task. The relaxation exer- q;f includes progressive relaxation exercises and aulogenic phrases (likobson, 1929; Shultz, 1950). Ganzl' Id instructions ;ire recorded e *i*'-r the relaxation exercise. The insiruclions and relaxalion exer- k5- CXM are delivered in a slow, soothing hut confident manner with o9an sounds in the background. 'rhe style of presentation is similar totm hypnotic induction procedure. The ganzfeld instructions to R, w@ch are also heard by Se, are as follows: 77D WDuring this experiment We W;1111 YOU 10 think out lotid. Report all of (lie "images, thoughts, and feelings that J@OSS through your mind. DO not 0 LLcling to any of them. just observe them as they go by. At some point -oduring the session, we will send YOU tile target information. Do not try 0:to anticipate or conjure up this information. Just give yourself the sug- ogestion, right now-in the form Of making a wish-that the information L__will appear in consciousness at the appropriate time. Keep your eyes Mpen as much as possible during the session and allow your conscious- into VCR mode by the computer, which also prompts Se to "Silently 2 direct [R's first name] to select the target that you saw." Se's TV CL monitor remains blank (computer mode) during this period. < R removes the eye covers and views the preview pack@ From their rest)ective rooms, R and E then view the four potential targets (the actual target and three decoys), which are presented in one of Uour random sequences. R, viewing each candidate, associates to tile item as though it were the actual target, describing perceived simi- larities between the item and the ganzfeld mentation. While R as- vr-;@t@v t,-l -4 -_+'ki. F A-U A I&C J U"I I@L&G VJ A L41 "j-p-11ULUgy namic targets are used, Se hears the target audio channel through the other headphone. Series Manager Setup Procedures t?E accesses the autoganzfeld computer program through the Se- rig Manager software. Series Manager is a password-protected, menu- d8ven control program. It provides the only means through which am-experimenter may specify parameters for the series design, reg- i 'v"r new participants in the series, set up a session, and run a ses sb si$h. The Series Manager menu is accessed through entry of a private (Qd nonechoing) password. bg,:run in an experimental series. This is done through the Series Manager "design" module. The design module prompts E to specify t@j type of series (pilot, screening, or formal), the number of pc4ticipants, the maximum number of trials per participant, the t&I number of trials per series, and the series name. There is no -fA- Vision for changing the series design once it is accepted by E. reign parameters are saved in a disk file; they are passed to the ej@perimental program at the beginning of the session. Participant registration. When R is new to a series, E accesses 'Participant Registration" from the Series Manager menu before the sksion. E is prompted to enter R's name and identification number. @4e module verifies that the maximum number of participants secified in the design is not exceeded. (An error message appears igin attempt is made to register more participants than are speci- fRA in the design; then, control is returned to the Series Manager rp6nu.) U) Session setup. E then selects "Session Setup" from the Series Man- co aZr menu. E is prompted to enter R's name and the program ver- i&s that R has not already completed the maximum number of t'Qals specified in the design module. (An error message appears if aC .@articipant has completed the number of sessions allowed for the LU - Iff ies or has not been properly registered; control is then renirried ta) the Series Manager menu.) E enters Se's name and the sender t&e: lab, lab friend, or friend. Lab senders are PRL staff members vaose acquaintance with the participant is limited to the experi- rM:nt. Lab friend i-cfers to IRl. stall' senders who have some social Auaintance with R outside the laboratory. Friend senders are friends or family members of the participant. Finally, E enters the ganzfeld light and noise intensity levels and his or her initials. E then leaves r,@l UO11&11L141W-U&&U1& LE& &I&G @--J- the monitoring room while another PRL staff person supervises tar- get selection. Targets The system uses short video segments (@vnainlc targets) and still LO pictures (static targets) as targets. Dynamic targets include excerpts 'L from motion pictures, documentaries, and cartoons. Static targets include art prints, photographs, and magazine advertisements. There are 160 targets, arranged in judging sets of four dynamic or four Static tin-gets. The sets were constructed to minitnize simi- 0 larities among targets within a set. The targets are recorded on four ' Cl) -videocassettes; each videocassette con- 0 tains 10 target sets (5 dynamic and 5 static). A signal recorded on X an audio track of each videocassette allows computer access of the 0) 00 targets. Target display time-to Se during each sending period and P 0 to R during the judging period-is approximately one minute; 9 blank space added to briefer targets insures that the VCR remains (0 in play mode for the same length of time for all targets. 0) 0- preview packs. The video display format of the atitogan-Jeld tar- I L set gets does not permit simultaneous viewing of' the entire targe during the judging procedure as is done in many nonautomated!5 ganzfeld studies. Each target set is therefore accompanied by a pre-0 view pack containing brief excerpts of all four targets in the set; this,- gives R a general impression of the range of target possibilities. R(D views the preview pack at the beginning of the 'udging procedure;C1) it runs approximately 30 sec. Target Selection N U) The target selector (TS) is a PRL staff member who his no con- CO a) tact with either E or R until after the blind-judging procedure. TS7@D is needed to load the videocassette containing the target into them VCR. TS is informed which of the four videocassettes contains the 0 target, but renlaills blind to tile target's idenlity. 11' Se is a staffLL member, Se serves this role; otherwise, a staff member not involvedo (D in the session serves as TS. (In the latter case, Se and R are seques- > tered in their respective rooms before TS enters the monitoring 0 CL rooill.) CL The Series Manager program prompts TS to press a key on the< computer k .eyboard. A program call to the hardware RNG obtains the target-value (a number between I and 160) and stores it i.n.com- 100 The journal of Parapsychology -1L Q ab t their performance; they are advised to relax, follow the taped in*ructions, and to simply allow the procedure to work. We inforin pa&cipants that they may experience various types of correspond- en@2 between their mentation and the target; they are told that they mAg experience direct, literal correspondences to the target, but that thcp should also be prepared for correspondences involving distor- i or transformations of the target content, cognitive associations, al similarities in emotional tone. Finally, we orient new partici- pa@3s to where Se and E will be located during the session. Q (L a) a- MCI-liciD Lay I and Equipment and Se are sequestered in nonadjacent, sound-isolated and eleovically shielded rooms. Both rooms are copper-screened, and arJR4 ft apart on opposite sides of E's monitoring room. which pro- vicG the only access. R and Se remain isolated in their respective ro Ms until R completes the blind- judging procedure. @Is room is an Industrial Acoustics Corp., IAC 1205A Sound lso(Mtion Room, consisting of' two 4-Inch sheet rock-fi I led steel (1) patxqls. The two panels are separated by a 4-inch air space, for a tot4othickness of one foot. Whe inside walls and ceiling of Se's room are covered with 4-inch SoXxIM acoustical material. similar to that used in commercial bro"&cast studios. A free-standing Sonex-covered plywood barrier (5 R-wide by 8 ft high) positioned inside the sender's room, between e' S 'gchair and the acoustical door, blocks sound transmission th.rtugh tthe door frame. Figure i shows the floor plan of' the ex- pe ental rooms. Toccupies a console housing the computer system and other eqdq@ment. The computer is an Apple 11 Plus with two disk drives, a printer, and an expansion chassis. The computer peripherals in- clude a real-time clock, a noise-based random number generator (RNG), a Cavri Interactive Video lnterfact:6@0, all Apple game pad- dle, and a fan. Other equipment includes a color TV monitor, the VCR used to access and display targets, and three electrically iso- lated audiocassette recorders. One a1ldi()C-,19se11#- rrre)r(l@r to Psi Communication in 105"L the Ganzfeld Q Q ] Double wall with V Q Industrial Acoustics Sones Acoustical Q @4w . 120SA Sound Padding and .4.Co scousti-v- cal door M lation Room G a Q 0 Q SENDER FR ) RECEWER 00 I- Q Q SCALE J Osequipmentr"ERItAPAMM11 5 it (L console 0 Figure 1. Floor plan of experimental suite. judging period associations. There is two-way intercom conimuni-(2) cation between E and R. One-way audio communication fizom R to Q Se allows Se to listen to R's ganzfeld mentation. C*4 (1) U) Receiver Preparation 77D R sits in a comfortable reclining chair in the IAC room. Se keeps W R company while E prepares R for visual and auditory ganzfeld " . 0 stimulation. Translucent hemispheres are taped over R's eyes withLL Micropore'5@ tape. Headphones are placed over R's ears. A clip-*on-0 (1) microphone is fastened to R's collar. A 600-watt red-filtered flood- > light, located approximately 6 ft in front of R's face, is adjusted in 0" intensity until R reports a comfortable, shadow-free, homageneous CL visual field. White noise level is similarly adjusted; R is informed < that the white noise should be as loud as possible without being an- noying or uncomfortable. The ganzfeld light and white noise linten- sity are adjusted from E's console after R and Se are sequestered in their respective rooms. Sender Preparation 102 Psi Communication in the Gan@feld 103 TheJournal of Parapsychology (1) Whenever possible, new participants are evidence encouraged to come in for psi in the autoganzfeld situation, (2) the impact of dynamic for a preliminary orientation session, first PRL versus prior to their ganz- static targets, (3) the effects of sender/receiver ac- quaintance, feld session. The orientation serves (4) as a "get acquainted" session for the impact of prior psi ganzfeld experience, and ' (5) pit rtic, pit nts and the PRL staff', a and introduces partic,pants to the comparison of these four fiactors with (lie outconles of, earlier * nonautomated PRL program and facility. Participants psi who avail themselves of this ganzf eld experiments. Our findings on demo- graf.hic, option generally complete the MBTI and psychological, PIF questionnaires during and target factors will be presented in later relSts. the orientation session. We inform new Participants that they inay Q Q bring a friend or family member to serve Q M as their sender. When a Q su@'Vacts -- b _ er serves as v participant chooses not to do so, a PRL ' staff mem ' V sender. We encourage participants to r Q reschedule their session rather Q CPhe than feel they must come in to "fulfill Q participants an obligation" ifthey are not are 100 men and 141 women ranging in age C0 frol:11 feeling well. Q 17 to 74 years (mean = 37.3, SD = 11.8). This is a well- ed ted _ - - ___&rcvttp@_ 2 l arrive and attempt to create a friendly and informal social atmos- ur phere. Coffee, tea, and soft drinks are 00 primary available. E and other staff sources of recruitment include referrals from col- leages members engage in conversation with R Q (24%). during this period. When media presentations concerning PRL research (23%), frid9ds a laboratory sender is used, time is 9 or taken for sender and receiver to acquaintances of PRL staff (20%), and referrals from oth W participants become acquainted. (18%). J elief if the participant is a novice, we describe in the rationale and back- psi is strong in this population. On a seven-point scale wh@e ground of the ganzfeld research, and "I" we seek to create positive ex- indicates strong disbelief and "T' indicates strong belief in pectations concerning R's ability to 1, identify the target. This infor- the mean is 6.20 (SD = 1.03); only two participants rated R the belief dual in mation is tailored to our perception psi of the needs of the indivi below the midpoint of the scale. Personal experi- i f g enc participant, but it generally includes ve four elements: (1) a brief re- o suggest psi were reported by 88% of the subjects; 80% repiQrted view ofexperiniental, clinical, and spontaneous ostensible case trends indicat- telepathic experiences. Eighty percent of the par%ipants Q have ntio.,, iates -- had ing that ESP is more readily detected C0 some during internal atte i training in meditation or other tech- niqGs such as dreaming, hypnosis, and meditation Q involving (Honorton internal focus of attention. (2) the notion that these states all ' Pargipant involve physical relaxation and Q Orientation ' 04 es- Q functional sensory deprivation, suggesting 04 that weak ESP impr sions may be more readily detected when U) A' perceptual and somatic itial contact. New participants receive an information pack be- noise is reduce to co forq; d, (3) the development of the ganzfeld heir technique first session. The information pack includes a 55-item per- test this noise-reduction hypothesis, a) sonV and (4) the long-term success of history survey (Participant Information Form [PIF]; Ps cho- y the ganzfeld technique as a means of ph)FAcal facilitating psi commupication Research Laboratories 1983) Form F ofthe Myers-Briggs , in unselec(ed subjects. , We encourage' "goal orientation" and 0 ,I.yl:8 discourage excessive "task Indicator (MBTI; Briggs & Myers. 11157), general information abd*A LL the with ' research orientation" during the session; this program, is especially emphasized i and directions for reaching PRL. Par- tici a nts participants who appear to be anxious a) usually or overly concerned about return the completed questionnaires before their pa firsixession. their ability to succeed in the ganzfeld > However, task. We discourage partici- 0 if 1 ' new participants are scheduled on short notEe they either com lete the uestionnaires at PRL o i f , pants from analyzing their mentation - n during the session, and tell CL a . . C ew r, p q cas4& at home after the session. them that they will have an opportunity L to analyze their mentation i incinc ng procedure. They are encouraged to tile adopt the data during the judg in an appendix to the report. instead, we will supply the data to qualified role of an outside observer of their investigators mental processes during the in a Lotus-compatible, MS-DOS computer disk me. 'ri,crc is a small ganzfeld. Again, this is emphasized with fee those who appear an?cious to cover materials and mailing. Addrcss inquiries to theJourual. W) T11 00 The Journal of Porapsvrhology Q Q c3hrough dreaming, hypnosis, meditation, and similar naturally oc- T_ T-CUrring 01- artificially Induced states (Braud, 1978; I-1011orton, 1977). SFhis generalization, ba .sed on converging evidence fi-om sponta- TTICOUS case studies, Clinical observations, and experimental studies, ged to the development of a low-level descriptive model of psi func- @2ionlng, according to which, internal attention states faciliiate psi de- 0ection byattenuating sensory and somatic stimuli that normally Piask weaker psi input (Honorton, 1977, 1978). This ., noise-redUC- On" Model [fit's Ide'llified sensory deprivation as it key to the I'l-c- Juent association between psi communication and internal attention Mates, and the ganzfeld procedure was developed specifically to test 25ie impact of' perceptual isolation on psi performance. W Fifteen years have passed since die Initial reports of psi com- <11.1111Cation in the ganzfeld (BraUd, Wood, & Brand, 1975; Ulonorton & Harper, 1974; Parker, 1975). Dozens of additional psi ganzfeld studies have appeared since then, and the success of the @Raracligm has triggered substantial critical interest. Indeed, there is @Jt least one critical review or commentary for every ganzfeld study !Reporting significant evidence of psi communication (Akers, 1984; alcock, 1986; Blackmore, 1980, 1987; Child, 1986; Druckman & Qwets, 1988; Harley & Matthews, 1987; Harris & Rosenthal, 1988; Wonorton, 1979, 1983, 1985; I-16velitiann, 1986; Hyman, 1983, 985, 1988; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Kennedy, 1979; McClenon, 1986; Palmer, 1986; Palmer, Honorton, & Utts, 1989; Parker & (VViklund, 1987; Rosenthal, 1986; Sargent, 1987; Scott, 1986; 115tanford, 1984, 1986; Stokes, 1986; Utts, 1986). 0 Of the many controversies spanning the history of parapsycholog- 4tal inquiry, the psi ganzfeld domain is unique in three respects. 'girst, the central issue involves the replicability of a theoretically ased technique rather than the special abilities of exceptional in- ividuals (Honorton, 1977). Second, meta-analytic techniques have en used to assess statistical significance, effect size, and potential %reats to validity (Harris & Rosenthal, 1988; Honorton, 1985; Hyman, 1985, 1988; Rosenthal, 1986). Third, investigators and crit- ics have agreed on specific guidelines for the conduct and evaluation Of future psi ganzfeld research (Hyman & Honorton, 1986). The Automated Ganzfeld Testing System Psi Conminnication In the Gezn-tpw 101 tries-on it blind basis-to identify the actual target froin among four possibilities. A physically isolated sender (Se) views the target and attempts to communicate salient aspects of it to R. Two exper- imenters (Es) are usually required. One E manages R, elicits R's ver- bal report of ganzfeld imagery (mentation), and supervises R's blind Judging of the target and decoys; a second E supervises Se. and ran- domly selects and records the target. e toganz- We d veloped an automated ganzfeld testing system Cau feld") to eliminate potential methodological problems that were identified in earlier ganzfeld studies (Honorton, 1979; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Kennedy, 1979) and to explore factors associated with successful performance. The system provides computer control 1, 1 of target selection and presentation, blind Judging, stil:ject feedback, and data recording and storage (Berger & Honorton, 1986). A com- puter-controlled videocassette recorder (VCR) accesses and auto- matically presents target stimuli to Se. A second E is required only for assistance in target selection The system includes an experimen- tal design module through which E specifies the sample size and status of a new series. The system was designed to enable further assessment of factors identified with successful performance in earlier gatizfeld studies. Differences in target type and sender/receiver acquaintance seem to be particularly important. Significantly better performance occurred in studies using dynamic rather than static targets. Dynamic targets contain multiple images reinforcing a central theme, whereas static I ts to targets contain a single image. Also, studies permitting subjec have friends as their senders yielded significantly superior perfor- mance compared to those requiring subjects to work.with laboratory with Ganzfeld Meta- senders. (See "Comparison of Study Outcomes Analysis" in the Results section.) The autoganzfeld system uses both dynamic and static targets. The dynamic targets are excerpts from films; static targets ilfclude art work and photographs. Receivers may, if they choose, bring friends or family members to serve as their senders; a session setup module registers the sender type and other session information. In this report, we present the results of the I I autoganzfeld series conducted between the inauguration of the experiments in Fehrilirv 1981 -,inrl Sentember 1989 when fiindinf, rwoblems W) ,L Q Q Q T_ T" Q Q T" CO S 00 I*- Q Q WN < Q M 2 T_ Q CD C*4 a) U) co 77D w 0 LL > 0L_ CL CL J11.1111- @j I @6y, Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO31 00110001 -5 PSI COMMUNICATION IN THE GANZFELD EXPERIMEXI'S WITH AN AUTOMATEDTFSTING SYS'YEM AND A COMPARISON WIT11 A Nit; .FA-ANALYSIS OF F.AR1.ll;R.STLJD1F.S BY CHARLES HONORTON, Rj(,K E. BERGER, MARIO P. VARVOGLIS, MARTA QUANT, PATRICIA DERR, EPIIRAIM 1. SGIIECIITER, ANI) DIANE C. FERRARI ABSTRACF: A C(JlulJLllCl-(011ll0IIVd ICS[ilig sysicill was tv%cd ill I I till ganzfeld psi coin munication. The automaLed ganzfeld system controls target selection and plesclualioll, subictis, blilld-judgii1g, ano 11.11a rccording and sloragv@ Video- taped targets includea video segments (dynamic targets) as well as single images (static targets). Two hundred and forty-one volunteer subjects completed 355 psi ganzFeld sessions. The subjects, oil it blind basis, correctly identified randomly se- lected and remotely viewed targets to a statistically significant degree, z = 3.89, p = .00005. Study outcomes were homogeneous across the I I'series and eight different experimenters. Performance on dynamic targets was highly significant, z = 4.62, p = .0000019, as was the difference between dynamic and static targets, p @ M02. Suggestively stronger performance occuri-cd with friends than widi unac(piaimed se tide r/receive r pairs, p = .0635. The automated ganzfeld study outcomes are com- pared with a meta-analysis of 28 earlier ganzfeid studies. The two data sets are con- sistent oil foul- dimensions: overall success rate, impact of d) nainic and static targets, effect of sender/1-cceiver acquaintance, ilitil prior gmizfeld experience. Thc combillcd z for all 39 studies is 7.53, p = 9 x 10-14. Research on psi communication in the ganzfeld developed as the result of' earlier rcseal-ch sijggest1ijg 111;tt psi ('unctioning is fi-e- (lucnily associated with internal allention states bl-ought itl)oLit This work was supported by the james S. McDonnell Foundation of St. Louis, Missouri, and by the john E. Fetzer Foundation of Kalamazoo, Michigan. We wish to thank Marilyn J. Schlitz, Peter Rojcewicz, and Rosemarie Pilkington for their help in recruiting participants; Daryl .1. Bern of Cornell University and Donald McCarthy ofSt. Johns University for helpful comment% oil all carlier draft of this paper; Edwin C. May of SRI International ["or performing the audio spectrum allillysis; and R(jl)crt Rosendial (if Harvard University for suggcs6ous conceriiiiig data analysis. We also wish to thank several PRL colleagues who contributed in var- ious ways to tile work reported here: Nancy Sondow for assistance in [fie preparation relaxation exercise and instruction tape that was used throughout, and George Hansen and Linda Moore who served frequently as lab senders. Hansen also pro- vided technical assistance and conducted a data audit resulting in tile correction of several minor errors that -,appeared in a version ofthis report presenied at tile 32nd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association. Finally, we thank the 241 volunteer participants for providing us with such interesting data. Approved For Release 2001/03/07: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100110001-5 REFERENCES DAWES, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. New York: Har- cotirt, Brace.jovaiiovirb. HONORTON, C. (1975). Objective determination of information rate in psi tasks with pictorial stimuli. Journal of die American Society for Psychical LiTesearch, 69, 353-359. HLWBARD, G. S., MAY, E. C., & FRIVOLD, T. J. (1987). Possible photon pro- Q 6luction during a remote viewing task: A replication experiment. Final C:Rcport, SRI Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California. T" HLWPHREY, B. S., MAY, E. C., TRASK, V. V., & THOMSON, M. J. (1986). &emote viewing evaluation techniques. Final Report, SRI Project 1291, ;;Rl International. Menlo Park. California. llL1&-11RLY, B. S., MAY, E. G, & U-i-us. J. M. (198H). Fuzzy set technology e"- _@ - _r _r L- _'22- A ____ -I 6Von of the Parapsychological Association (pp. 378-394). JAV, R. G., DUNNE, B. J., & JAHN. E. G. (1980). Analytical judging pro- (3cedure for remote perception experiments. Journal of Parapsychology, CM, 207-231. Mg E. C. (1983). A remote viewing evaluation protocol. Final Report (re oyised), SRI Project 4028, SRI International, Menlo Park, California. I E. C., HUMPHREY, B. S., & MATHEWS, C. (1985). A figure of merit ,,nalysis for free-response material. Proceedings of the 28th Annual Con- ention of the Parapsychological Association, (pp. 343-354). PU%OFF, H. E., & TARG, R. (1976). A perceptual channel for information ,@ransfer over kilometer distances: Historical perspective and recent re- picarch. Proceedings of the IEEE, 64(3), 329-354. SO"ViN. G. F., KELLY, E. F., & BuitwcK, D. S. (1978). Some new methods of analysis for prcferential-ranking data. Journal of the American Society aor Psychical Research, 72(2). 93-110. T*., R., PUTHOFF, H. E., & MAY, E. C. (1977). State of the art in remote (Viewing studies at SRI. 1977 Proceedings of da International Conference of OGybernetics and Society (pp. 519-529). ZI(%, R., CARLSTEIN, E., & BUDESCU, D. V. (1987). Measures of similarity '&mong fuzzy concepts: A comparative analysis. International Journal of Wpproximate Reasoning, 1(2), 221-242. SdInternational 331DRaven.swood Av. (D Me,slo Park, CA 94025 0 Diton of Statistics Untersity of California, Davis Davis, CA 95616 TAtu.E B2 TAitc;E-r-REsPoNsf 9005 U? v-ElementName TargetResponse. 1,11K T - 0 14 Spire, minaret, 0@00 0.20 0 0.00 tower o 20 Roads 0.10 0.10 o 0.00 T 32 Urban 0.80 0.70 1 0.70 0.00 0-10 1) 0 38 Canal. manmade waterway 4-1 '16wil, village 0.00 0.30 (1 45 City 0.90 0.71) 1 0.70 46 Single peak 0.00 O@20 0 0.00 0.110 0.00 .17 1111jusalls 01)54 Unbounded large 0.00 0.40 0 0.00 expanse water 0056 Partially bounded0.30 0.30 1 0.3t) water 1@_5H sticam. t:tcck WWI 0,40 1) ().111) Kivcs 0 , 0.00 0 59 Coastline 0.00 0.20 (1 (L60 Vegetation. trees0.20 0.20 1 0-20 0)64 Blue 0.25 0.00 1 0-00 0-65 Green 0.20 0.00 1 0.00 1367 Brown, beige 0.50 0.00 1 0.00 0@_69 White 1). 0.00 (1 (HII) 10 70 Grey 0.10 0.00 0 &uo 80 smooth 0.10 0.00 0 0.00 81 Fuzzy 0@00 1.00 0 0.00 82 Grainy, sandy, 0.00 1.00 0 0.00 crumbly 0 0.00 0 83 Pocky. ragged, 0.00 1.00 rubbled. rough Of)91 Congested. cluttered,0.70 0.70 1 0.70 busy 2 (34 opcn. spacious, 0.10 1.00 0 (MM va%t T_95 ordered, aligned 0.00 0.3u 0 0.00 96 Disordered. jumbled,0.30 0AU I U.00 unaligned 0.90 C1497 Buildings, structures0.80 0.90 1 0.00 1.00 0 0.00 98 Rise. vertical rise, slope 0)99 Flat 0.50 1.00 1 1.00 100 Lighddark areas 0.10 0.00 0 0.00 101 Boundaries 0.20 1.00 1 1.00 102 Land/mater interface0.30 1.00 1 1.00 103 Land/sky interface0.10 0.10 0 0.00 0 104 Single predominant0. 0.40 0 (MM feature 11) LL106 Manmadc. altered 0.80 0.80 1 0.80 -0107 Natural 0.20 0.20 1 0.20 (1)108 Rectangle, square,0.70 1.00 1 1.00 box > 0.30 0,00 1 0.00 0 Cross-hatch, grid 1-112 Circle. oval. (LI0 0.00 0 (1.00 sphere CL116 Semicircle. doine.0. 0.30 0 11.00 hemispherc 10 CL118 Repeat motif 0.40 0.80 1 0,110 119 Stepped 0.20 1.00 1 1.00 120 Parallel lines 0.30 0.30 1 0.30 Vertical lines 0.50 1.00 1 1.00 121 122 Horizontal lines 0.10 0.00 0 0.00 123 Diagonal lines 0.10 0.20 0 0.00 125 inverted V-shape 0@00 0.20 0 0.00 127 Arc, curve 0.30 1.00 1 1.00 128 Wave form 0@00 0.10 0 000 Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis 227 APPENDIX C "GROUND TRUTH" INSTRUCTION AND CODING FORM Cl) 0 A nalystf' Instnictions for Remote- Viewing Series 90OX 00 Thank you for helping us perform a post hoc assessment of a sericb-of remotc viewiiigs. The targets were actually 35-nun slides that were attac@d to a photomultiplier, a device to measure small amounts of light. We 4e searching for possible physical correlates to remote viewing. (1) You will find in your packet 6 remote viewing responses labeled 90@_ 9006 respectively. Also shown is the target number of the intended phaLp 1 graph. We have supplied the original, rather than the 35-mm slide. < We would like you to make a sul@ecfive judgment as to the degreuf correspondence between the remote viewing response and its associated tv- get. Familiarize yourself with the task by first looking at all the respows and their intended targets. Then, on a session-by-session basis, rate A r assessments. You are completely free to define what is meant by "Degreaf Correspondence." Indicate your judgment by marking one line. acrossZme appropriate continuous scale shown below. A vertical line near the "NO11 end of the scale will indicate that you feel there is very little corresponddl*c between that response-target pair. Likewise a vertical line near the "C plete" end of the scale will indicate that you feel that there is a significapt degree of correspondence. Many of the responses begin with a little information and build tow&d a composite drawing at the end. Please assess the response in its entiretyas best you can. Thank you again. 0 LL SESSION DEGREE OF CORRESPONDENCE TARGET Nonc COMPICIC 1 9001 1034- 9002 1042 9003 1065 9004 1094 9005 im > 0 L_ CL CL < Cl 007E AppRove4ior Release 2001/03/07 @cl- 79 0 R003100110001-5 0 OQ to Approved For Release 2001 CIA-RDP96-0%078 003100110001-5 222 The.journal at'j'aralmych(doo Advances in Rensole-Viewing Analysis 20 C) C) C) C) C) 00 P- CD CD IL C) CO Q 1@ IT- 7a; 4e 0 /Ils ""T LL > 0 CL JL rj CY I C) C) Q C) C) r4 00 I- a CD IL C) CO C) Q C) C*4 Q) U) 7a; 0 LL 0 LM CL Figure B7. page two of response (Session 9005, Target W05). Figure B8. Page three of response (Session 9005, Target 1005). TABLE B I 9004 Element Name Target Rcsponw 20 Roads 23 Agricultural fields 32 Urban 33 Rural, pastoral U? 44 IbWn' village v-- .15Q City Q 46 Single peak Q 47 Hills, slopes. v- hulrlps. mounds 48 Mountains T- Q 49 Cliffs Q 60 Vegetation. trees T- 64 Blue Grom-.- 69 White 70 Grey a) 00 76 Obscured. fuzzy. dirn. smoky 77Q Cloudy. Foggy. lilisly 799 Wcatlicicd, eroded. iiscomplele so Stilooll) to 81 Fuzzy 82 Grainy, sandy, crumbly 90 Other implied movement 91 Congested, cluttered, busy 92 Serene. peacclul. unlitarried 93 Closed in, claustrophobic 9.1 Open, spacious, va" 95 Ordered. aligned 1-- 97 Buildings. structures G-) 98Q Rise, vertical rise. slope 99Q Flat 100 Light/dark areas T- Q 101Q Boundaries 103 Land/sky interface 04 104 Single preclogninam (D feature 105 Odd juxtaposition. U) stil-prising 106 Manmade. altered (1) 107 Natural 108 Rectangle, square. box 109 Triangle. pyramid, L- trapezoid 15 Cogle 0 - LL l : f I 17 ar orms ri egu 11813 Repeat motif S d 119 teppe 1200 Parallel lines 121 Vertical lines LM CL 122 I lori-tontal CL line.- 123 Diagonal Iiiits < 125 Inverted V-shape 126 Other aneles 0.30 0-00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.60 0.50 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.40 0.70 0.00 1). 0.40 1 0.00 0.60 0-00 0.10 0.30 0J)0 0.50 0.00 0.311 0.10 0.00 0.20 0-00 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.00 WWI 0.10 0.00 1.00 0.20 OM 0.20 1.00 0.20 0.00 0.10 0.30 W-10 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.40 0-00 1.00 0.60 1.00 0.30 1.00 0.10 0.00 0.30 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.20 0.80 0.70 0.20 0.00 1.00 0.60 0.00 11.60 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.60 I U 0.70 0.10 0.00 0.10 1.00 1) 0.00 0.40 0.00 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.10 3 4 S- VIA al@ Figure B6. Page one of response (Session 9005, Target 1005). 414-7 CA Q Q Q Q Q Ir- CI) a) 00 CD CD Q M Q T- Q Q C*4 (1). U) 0 LL 0 L- CL M Figure B5. Target for Session 9005.