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COMNTS ON RESEARCH DMOTIONS IN PARAPSYCHOLOGY
To focus-~thinking about the dewlopment of parapsychology and its
eventualuse as an information source,, we list some possible sequential
stages by which the field may progress to a more mature state. These
stages are only roughly independent but represent auseful first approximation.
 1. Establish the existence of the phenomena and identify its
manifestations-,
  20'. Establish the significant factors which inMnence the process',
i.e.-determine'referents which influence and modify the occurrence
of these eftects.
 3. Through development of measurable characteristics of the phenomena
and measurabLe referents gain experience with -manipulation and
reproducibility,, thus assessing reliability and determining methods
of enhancement or inhibition*
  4.~ The foregoing will require-the development of quantification
techniques both for 'the information transmitted and for its
reliability. These quantifications will almost certainly be
probabilistic.
 5. Develop rational techniques for the -use of ESP information
based-upon probabilistic quantification of its content and'
reliabilik,, io. decision theory in this context.
Parapsychology impinges-upon three fields; physics., physiology, and
psychology., with mathematical-analysis serving all three. Little progress-
has been made to date in understanding the physical aspects of parapsycholog7,
although- as mentioned in previous reports- the work of Costa de Beauregard
offers a rational interpretive--physical scheme which cannot, as yet.. be
called a theory. Present experimental efforts are primarily psychological,,
but physiological work is beginning to asame-an increasing importancesin
providing more direct and less ambiguous measurements as well as serving
to identify the mental states ( or psychological variables) invnlved..
independent of verbal descriptions and rather unreliable measurements of
purely psychological type.
In terms of the stages above, stage I has already been achieved and
work directed toward establishing -the phenomena is largely redundant. At
present the most fruitful work is concerned with stages 2 and 3 and there is
a beginning to stage /+. Well conceived psychological experiments are-
beginning to monitor and quantify numerous important physiological variables.
As yet there has been only a beginning of experiments designed to quantify
information transmission in this context and to quantify the statistical
significance of possible referents. There is need for some high quality
mathematical work. An encouraging aspect of good present work is the -use
of automated devices for thescoring and analysis of tests. These devices
insulate test subjects~W the "clinical" atmosphere and reduce the
everpresent possibility of fraud.
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                To conclude, experiments which at present would contribute maximally
           toward the maturation ancL eventual practical -use of parapsychology should
           be characterized b,7:.(l) careful -monitoring and attention to psychological
           and physiological variables ( physical sensory isolation ass=ed) in order
           to identify and quantify significant factors, (2) interpretation of
           results and design of experiments in terms of quantitative measures of
           information transmitted and overall probabilistic-,inodels of information
           reliabiliV.
           SG1 I
           Approved For Release 2000/08/10 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0200090022-9