Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Final Report Phenomenological Research and Analysis Authors: Edwin C. May, Ph.D., Wanda L. W Luke, and Christine L. James 29 September 1994 MW a 1~8 Science Applications International Cbrporafkx? An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: U. S. Government Contract MDA908-93-C-0004 (Client Private) Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Aap,r 1 0 Carnino Real Suite 330, P.O. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (415) 325-8292 Pal,,Alto, Sanl~, rucson M)y WE Approved For Release 2000/08/07: QA--RQPA%-0,q?87R000300270001 -1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final po TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ...................................................... *****"***'- " LIST OF TABLES ....................................................... fi' 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................... I I,. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW .............................................. 1. - 2 1. Biophysical Measurements ................................................ 2 2. Data Patterns/Parameter Correlations ...................................... 11 3. Theoretical Issues ....................................................... 15 4. Applied Research ....................................................... 18 5. Research Methodology and Support ....................................... 25 III. GLOSSARY ............................................................... 27 REFERENCES ............................................................ 28 APPENDIX A: Autonomic Detection of Remote Observation ..................... 30 APPENDIX B. Thrget and Sender Dependencies in AC Experiments ................ 31 APPENDIX C: Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth ............................. 32 APPENDIX D: Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic Thrget Property ................... 33 SG1A Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report LIST OF FIGURES 1. Stimulus Timing ................................................................ 7 2. lypical ERD-from Direct Stimuli .................................................. 8 3. Cluster Diagram ............................................................... 16 4. Cross-Section of the Detector (Not to Scale) ....................................... 21 5. Test Exposure- 2,250 Volts for 28 Hours ........................................... 22 Nd =0 so Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 "w Approved For Release 2000/08XO7 : 3qlAjF,,Dj~ft6e-00 87R000300270001 -1 Phenomenological Research and nalys s: na epog LIST OF TABLE.E.) 1. AC Results ................................................ 9 9 2. Wilcoxon Statistics for ERDs ..................................................... 3 ............................... *,,*,,* .... 10 . 0-7 Point Assessment Scale . ......... .. 4. Partial Element List for a Test-bed Experiment ..................................... 24 aw EN Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For R ease - syjArQPNjO%9787ROO0300270001 -1 phenomenological %esGarc9O8Oni/8WnO11V . 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY our research has advanced our understanding of applying anomalous mental phenomena to practical problems and lead us toward a comprehensive theoretical model for the phenomena. * During the con- tract period ending-29 July 1994, we have: Successfully verified a claim from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and from the U.S. that it is possible to influence the physiology of an isolated individual exclusively by anomalous mental phenomena. Furthermore, we were able to demonstrate in our analysis of previous work that the mechanism of such influence is most likely causal. That is, the mental intention of a distant agent appears to cause physiological changes in an isolated person. 0 Identified an intrinsic property of an AC target (i.e., the gradient of Shannon's entropy). This result is a break-through in our understanding of the mechanisms of AC. We have shown that detecting AC is not unlike how our other sensory systems detect their particular inputs (e.g., how the eye detects SG1A light). In the future, all practical applications and laboratory experiments can be significantly im- proved by choosing targets that possess the largest possible value of this particular parameter. am * Provided a proven method for the detailed evaluation of individual AC-performance in practical ap- SG1A plications, in the laboratory and as a certification procedure. so SG1A SG1A SG1A AW * Set a lower limit for the response of the central nervous system (i.e., brain) to anomalous cognition (AC) signals. If we could be successful at identifying a brain response, then practical applications and laboratory research would be sharply improved, even though the estimate for the lower limit is only 0.2 percent change in brain activity. * Developed and calibrated instrumentation to replicate a physics-type experiment from the FSU that suggests a new form of energy can be detected. Researchers there speculate that this form of energy might be responsible as the carrier of anomalous mental phenomena signals. Preliminary results are --mcourazinp- and the final results will be available before 30 September 1994. All of the experiments that we conducted for this year produced highly significant evidence for anoma- lous mental phenomena. We interpret this success, which is 20 times chance, to our expanding under- standing of the protocols, mechanisms, and psychology that are responsible for a high level of function- ing. The magnitude of our AC effects exceed the value that is considered robust by the psychology research community. This report constitutes our final deliverable under contact number MDA908-93-C-WO4. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Clearly demonstrated that using AC as a technique to send messages is not a productive pursuit. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: lA_-RQFN6-0!W87R000300270001 -1 Phenomenological Research and Analys s: Fine ePo 11. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW In this section we provide a technical overview of the activity which was conducted under contract num- ber MDA -004. The technical details of the experiments can be found in the Appendices. 1. Biophysical Measurements These tasks were to search for possible physiological correlates to anomalous cognition (AQ function- ing. If such correlations could be found, they would directly lead to improved application and laborato- ry results. We conducted two experiments with regard to biophysical measurements that were replications of pre- vious work. The first of these was an attempt to replicate a finding in the U.S and in the Former Soviet Union that claimed that some aspect of human physiology can be influenced by an isolated and remote observer (Schlitz and LaBerge, 1994).* The second was an improved experiment to determine if and how the central nervous system (i.e., the brain) responds to "signals" that are sensorially isolated from a receiver.t 1.1 Remote Observation Experiment A series of experiments has been conducted in the U.S. in which it is claimed that a receiver's electrical properties of the skin (i.e., electrodermal response) can be influenced by a remote observer. This is a laboratory example of a frequently reported anecdote: after entering a crowded room, you "sense" that you are being stared at and discover that you are correct. A complete write-up of our experiment, which includes the history, methodology, and results can be found in Appendix A; however, we summarize the findings here. TWo experiments were conducted to measure the extent to which people are able to unconsciously de- tect another person staring at them from a distance. A close-circuit television set-up was employed in which a video camera was focused on the experimental volunteer (Observee) while a person in another room (Observer) concentrated on the image of the distant person as displayed on a color monitor; this procedure was used to preclude any conventional sensory contact between the two people. During the experimental session, the Observee's galvanic skin responses were monitored. An automated and com- puterized system was programmed to record and average the physiological responses of the Observee during 32 30-second monitoring periods. A random sequence was used to schedule 16 periods of re- mote observation and 16 control periods when no observation efforts were attempted. A within-sub- jects evaluation was made for each experimental session with a comparison between the mean amount of autonomic nervous system activity during the experimental and control conditions. TWenty four ses- References may be found at the end of the document. t Please see Section in on page 27 for a definition of terms. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 2 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report sions were conducted in each of two experiments. As predicted, both experiments yielded significantly more autonomic activity during the remote observation periods as compared to control periods (Ex- periment 1: 1=1.878, df = 23, p:!!~ 0.036; Experiment 2: t=2652, df = 23, p:!E~ a014). As pre-planned, the two experiments were combined to increase the statistical power, yielding a significant t-score of 2.652 (df = 47, p < 0.005). There are two competing anomalous mental phenomena descriptions for these results. Given that this experiment represents successful replication of a number of such experiments, we do not include the possibility that these results are a rare or chance statistical deviation. The question we pose for future experiments is: Is this effect causal (i.e., the Observer forces the skin parameters to be different than they would otherwise be) or informational (i.e., the Observee is AC-sensifive to know when he/she is been stared at and responds accordingly)? The methodology we used in our experiment was primarily designed to replicate both US and FSU similar experiments rather than to answer this particular ques- tion. Although most of our analyses of so-called anomalous perturbation (AP) experiments demon- strate informational mechanisms, we have recently analyzed a bio-AP experiment that statistically fa- vored the causal explanation. Determining the mechanism is very important because it will dictate the potential applications for this type of phenomenon. 1.2 Central Nervous System Response to AC Slgnals The objective of this effort was to test the hypothesis that physiological responses to AC stimuli re- semble those which occur in response to identical direct visual stimuli. 1.2.1 Background As part of the research tasking for FY 1993, we had been asked to conduct an investigation of the rela- tionship between the central and/or the peripheral nervous system and AC. In this section, we review the pertinent literature and provide a justification for the effort. 1.2.1.1 Prior Research We only consider AC experiments that use complex material for targets. While there have been sub- stantial numbers of experiments in which symbols have been used as targets (Honorton, 1975; Honor- ton and Ferarri, 1989), we will not include that data as part of the behavioral evidence for AC. In 1976, Puthoff and Targ (1976) published the results of a series of experiments in what was then called remote viewing. In 51 trials, their results led to an overall effect size of 0.960±0.140 which corresponds to a 6.8o effect. In behavioral terms, Cohen (1988) would classify this effect as large. As part of our FY 1991-1992 effort, we were asked to use magnetoencephalography (MEG) to investi- gate how, or if, the central nervous system (CNS) responds to "visual" stimuli that are physically and sensorially isolated from a receiver. The reasoning behind this request was that during an earlier inves- tigation in FY 1988, we observed, what was suspected to be, instantaneous phase shifts of the dominant alpha rhythm concomitant with such stimuli. That study itself was originally thought of as a conceptual replication of even earlier work in which alphapower changes were putatively induced with remote visu- al stimuli (Rebert and lbrner, 1974; May, Targ, and Puthoff, 1977). no As we stated in our final report (May, Luke, and Lantz, 1992), the FY 1992 study did not replicate the FY 1988 finding (May, Luke, Uask, and Frivold, 1990b). Because of our technical and methodological 4w Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 3 am Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : ClApR,DfAQ-00 87ROO0300270001-1 I Phenomenological Research and Analysis: na epow improvements, we concluded that the 1988 results were likely to be spurious. We can, however, specify a number of possible arguments why the 1988 study failed to replicate: ~ AC does not exist. ~ AC exists, but the conditions were not conducive for quality AC functioning. ~ AC exists, but the target system (i.e., 100 millisecond sinusoidal gratings in the lower left visual field of the receiver) did not constitute an appropriate stimulus. We address these issues in order. The verification of the existence of AC is an epistemological problem. The definition of AC is a nega- tive one; we are abl 'e to describe what AC is not, but there is no statement about what AC is other than methodological. Colloquially, we might say AC is a form of information transfer when, according to the currently understood laws of physics, the retrieval of information is impossible. Thus, we say AC exists if a statistically valid anomaly is observed under the proper methodological conditions. MW Since replication is better than distribution theory, it is important to define what replication means in a 2-a domain. Professor Utts, from the statistics department at the University of California at Davis, has provided a good operational definition, which is based on standard power analysis (Utts, 1988). Since 1975, there have been four major articles published in the reviewed literature that analyze substantial numbers of experiments that portend AC. All but one use the modern methods of meta-analysis to determine the final conclusion for each collection of studies. It is important to realize that in all these analyses, all the published data are included. In addition, the techniques of meta-analysis allow for re- sponsible estimates of the number of studies that "failed" and were not published. (1) In "Error Some Place!" Honorton critically reviewed card-guessing experiments, which were con- ducted between 1934 and 1939 (Honorton, 1975). The AC-targets in these studies were five geo- metric symbols; circle, square, wavy lines, star, and cross. In almost 800,000 individual card trials that were obtained after the targets had been specified (i.e., real-time AC), the weighted effect size was i = 0.013:EO.001, which corresponds to an overall combined effect of 12.7o. This analysis, however, was completed before the techniques of meta-analysis were known. Improvements, which include the analysis of experiment quality, can be found in the next example. (2) Using the tools of modern meta-analysis, Honorton reviewed the precognition (i.e., a target is ran- dom)y generated after the trial had been obtained) card-guessing database (Honorton and Ferarri, 1989). This analysis included 309 separate studies reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million individual trials were contributed by more the 50,000 subjects. The combined effect size was _E = 0.020-0.002, which corresponds to an overall combined effect of 11.4cr. TWo important results emerge from Honorton's analysis. First, it is often stated by critics that the best results are from studies with the least methodological controls. To check this hypothesis, Honorton devised an eight-point quality measure (e.g., automated recording of data, proper randomization techniques) and scored each study with regard to these measures. There was no significant correlation between study quality and study score. Second, if researchers improved their experiments over time, one would expect a significant correlation of study quality with date of publication. Honorton found r = 0.246, df = 307, p < 2 xlO-~ In brief, Honorton concludes that a statistical anomaly exists in this data that cannot be explained by poor study quality or a large variety of other hypothesis. (3) In examining AC with complex visual targets, Bem and Honorton analyzed 11 separate studies in- - c = volving a total of 329 trials (Bem and Honorton, 1994). They report a combined effect size of 0.1590.055, which corresponds to 2.89o. We wish to call attention to the fact that this effect size is dW approximately eight times larger than the effect size reported for studies where the targets are sym- bols. Since effect sizes are relative measures above mean chance expectation, this result is one, of Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 4 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report many, which suggest that the statistically simpler target system of five symbols does not produce as much AC as do complex targets. (4) Radin and Nelson (1989) provide, in Foundations of Physics, a meta-analysis of a different form of AC. The targets were randomly changing binary bits whose random nature was usually derived ei ther from electronic noise or radioactive decay. Similar to Honorton's work, they assigned a 16-point quality rating to over 800 individual studies conducted by 68 investigators from 1959 to 1987. They compute an overall weighted effect size of approximately _E = (3.olu) X 10-4 which Idi corresponds to 6o. They also find no correlation between study quality and study score. An independent analysis of these statistics can be found in Statistical Sciences, which is a journal that Ami invites and publishes contributions and substantial critical comments by recognized leaders in the field of statistics (Utts, 1991). Although Utts focuses her attention on the meta-analyis of the Ganzfeld, her analysis, discussion, and defense of the commentary are noteworthy. These effects are small. To illustrate a point about replication, we will compute, using standard power analysis, the probability that anew study will demonstrate significant (i.e., p:!!~ 0.05) evidence for AC. If do we assume that the actual AC-effect size is given by Z = 0. 159 then the probability of observing a signifi- cant outcome in 50 trials is only 30%. Although this is six times chance expectation of 5%, there remains a 70% likelihood that this study would "fail" to replicate. It is exactly this type of realization that is responsible for a shift in the determination of replication from p-values to effect sizes. It is clear from these analyses that there is incontrovertible evidence that a statistical, albeit small, in- Nei formation-transfer anomaly exists that cannot be accounted for by methodological issues or fraud. Thus, we were strongly motivated to continue our investigations of the CNS in order to identify how the brain responds to AC stimuli. 1.2.1.2 Conditions for Quality AC Functioning One of the problems associated with our earlier CNS investigations is that we did not obtain concom- itant behavioral measures of AC. Many experiments and discussions about what constitutes an AC- conducive state can be found in the parapsychology literature. It is beyond the scope of this report to provide an analysis of this research, and there remains substantial disagreement among the researchers MEN on this point. In Ganzfeld studies, for example, it is assumed that reducing somatisensory noise en- hances AC, yet in our experiments we observe equivalent or larger effect sizes without the reduction. ow Lacking reliable research results on this point, it has been our view that the "ideal" environment for AC would not be much different than what might be needed to perform any high-level mental task. For example, the best environment for a person to read and understand a novel might also be sufficient for do producing AC. In most all of our AC experiments, receivers are seated in a quiet and comfortable room with few external distractions. The atmosphere is cordial, yet business like. On the one hand, we would ON like to have the receivers be attentive (i.e., we suspect that too relaxed or asleep is not helpful); yet on the other hand, we do not want them to be distracted. Under these conditions, we routinely observe large effect sizes for AC. mw In our MEG investigations, receivers were required to recline, face down, on a wooden table in a dark, technically complex room for approximately 30 minuets. A large device (i.e., the MEG and its go associated liquid helium flask) was comfortably touching the back of their heads. In addition, they were instructed to move as little as possible and relax as much as possible. Some receivers complained that no Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 5 No Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report various body parts fell "asleep," and that the experience was not particularly pleasant; other receivers did not mind the setup. No receivers, however, found the experience enjoyable. We suspect that since this environment was sufficiently different from ourusual one, it may have failed to provide a conducive atmosphere to elicit AC functioning. 1.2.1.3 Thrget Systems The meta-analysis of the historical databases clearly show a preference for certain target systems. For example, as we have shown above, complex visual targets provided better AC than do simple geometric symbols. In addition, Bem and Honorton have demonstrated a statistical preference for even more complex targets than static photographs. They observed a significant difference in the Ganzfeld favor- ing video segments from popular movies over single photographs. There is no evidence in the literature to suggest that a 100-millisecond long sinusoidal grating constitutes a viable AC target. In fact, our en- tropy results suggest that it would not be a good target, because it's total change of Shannon entropy is small (May, Spottiswoode, and James, 1994). 1.2.1.4 Conclusions Except for the alpha blocking experiment done at SRI in the early 70's, we have not been able to observe CNS correlates to AC functioning. We think that this may have resulted because of methodological issues. In the remainder of this section, we describe a much-improved approach that remedies the prob- lems of the previous methodologies. 1.2.2 Protocol 1.2.2.1 Introduction Using an electroencephalograph (EEG), we coffected the shortcomings of the previous work. Each stage of the investigation was built upon the results to date, and represented only modest extensions to the previous stage. In addition, we used traditional EEG methods for data collection and analysis so that comparisons with the established literature were straight forward.* We assumed that AC exists in general (i.e., within the framework discussed above); however, our approach included a "local" verifica- tion of AC's existence. Consider event-related desynchronization (ERD). Spontaneous EEG reveals short-lasting, task- or event-related amplitude changes in. rhythmic activity within the alpha band (i.e., 8 to 12 Hz). This am- plitude change or desynchronization is one of the elementary phenomena in EEG. It was first described by Berger (1930) in scalp EEG as alpha blocking, and was later termed ERD by Pfurtscheller and Arani- bar (1977). ERDs can be quantified as a function of time and can then be used to study cortical activa- tion patterns during the planning of motor behavior (Pfurtscheller and Aranibar, 1979), sensory stimu- lation, and cognitive processes (Pfurtscheller, lindinger and Klimesch, 1986; Klimesch, Pfurtscheller and LindingerKlimesh, 1987; and Sergeant, Geuze, and Van Winsum, 1987). Kaufman, Schwartz, Salustri and Williamson (1990) provide a more recent example of cognitive-process-related ERDs, which they W" call alpha suppression. They found a significantly shorter ERD when subjects simply responded to a target stimulus, compared with the ERD that occurred when a subject had to search visual memory to determine whether the target matched one previously presented. Because ERDs arise from external For these investigations, we did not require the special properties of a MEG (e.g., source localization), soweused the less com- plex and more readily available EEG technology. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 6 sow Figure 1. Stimulus Timing. While this stimulus-post stimulus pattern is fixed throughout the session, what happens in a stimulus window is counter balanced between two stimulus types and random. We created a digital "image" that was technically identical to the target images (e.g., same resolution, size) except that the color was nu- merically identical to the background color of the display. These pseudo stimuli could not be detected visually and, thus, served as a within run control. 1.2.2.3 Receivers WAO We asked three of our best receivers, 009,372, and 389 to participate in the experiment. Because of the pilot nature of this approach, we did not set the total number of trials; rather, time and receiver avail- ability determined the number of trials for each receiver. 1.2.2.4 Trial Protocol The following was the sequence of events for each trial: (1) The receiver was wired at the standard positions for right and left hemisphere EEG for occipital and parietal measurements referenced to CZ (i.e., the center of the top of the scalp). (2) The receiver was seated in a sound-attenuated and electrically shielded room that is commonly used for such measurements. Approved For Release 2000/08/07~s~s~A~-FDP-96-00_787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Anal nal Kepoll stimuli, cognitive tasks, or motor functions, they are a likely variable to use to study how the CNS might respond to AC stimuli. It would be odd, indeed, if AC was the only stimulus that did not produce an ERD. 1.2.2.2 Target Stimuli To overcome the potential problems associated with the earlier stimuli, we used throughout this study our standard National Geographic target pool. These images are complex, but there is an increasing database in our laboratory that shows they are suitable for targets in AC experiments. In addition, the results of the meta-analyses, which were described above, show a significant preference for complex target systems as opposed to symbols or 100-millisecond long sinusoidal gratings. Our target pool was digitized for later display on a laboratory PC. Figure 1 shows the stimulus timing. During a trial, a ran- domly selected photograph was displayed for one second with an inter-stimulus interval (ISI) of 3 seconds. Stimulus Window Post Stimulus Next Stimulus Window 0 1 4 5 8 Time (Seconds) (3) One of two possible random sequences for pseudo and target stimuli was selected randomly, and the trial was initiated. (4) The receiver was instructed to silently obtain AC data for the first five minutes. (5) The receiver debriefed his/her experience during the next five minutes in words and drawings. (6) After the response had been collected, the receiver was presented visually with the exact same stim- ulus pattern that was used in the first five minute interval as feedback. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 7 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDPR6-00 87R000300270001 -1 I Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final epow After a brief rest, a second trial was conducted, which was identical to the first except that a new target was selected randomly and the second possible stimulus order was used in step 3 above. 1.2.15 AC-Behavior Analysis An analyst who was otherwise blind to the experiment and trial details, was given a target pack number that contained the original target and four decoy photographs in random order. The analyst's task was to rank-order the five targets from best to worst match to the trial behavior response (i.e., writings and drawings). With the usual sum-of-rank statistic, we could determine the overall level of AC functioning in the study, for each receiver, and determine the level of AC for each trial. 1.2.2.6 ERD Analysis The EEG record for each trial contains continuous samples at 500 samples/second for five minutes of AC-stimuli and five minutes for direct stimuli (i.e., feedback of the target visually). Each epoch con- tained random sequences of stimuli and pseudo stimuli. These data were low pass filtered to avoid aliasing, then reduced by five, yielding an effective sampling rate of 100/second. The alpha content (i.e., 7.81 to 12.7 Hz) was extracted with a 32-pole, FIR, zero phase shift, digital filter, and the alpha power was estimated by the ensemble square. We computed an ERD template for each receiver. For each direct stimulus during the feedback five minute interval, the alpha power was ensemble averaged and normalized by the average alpha power for one second of prestimulus time. The resulting ERDs were averaged to produce the template for each trial. Figure 2 shows a typical ERD from one such calculation for receiver 372. We see that for direct stimuli we expect a latency of approximately 0.5 second (i.e, time after stimulus onset), an 85% reduction in alpha power and approximately two seconds for recovery. This template was cross correlated with the data during the AC-portion of the trial. That is, for each stimulus and for each pseudo stimulus, the maximum of the absolute value of the cross correlation for ±0.2 seconds surrounding the stimulus time was accumulated separately for each stimulus type. A stan- dard non-parametric sum-of-ranks method was used to compare the resulting two distributions. 4W ..................... U 0.0 U 0.5- 0 Z -1.0 ................... ........ 0 1 2 Time (s) Figure 2. Average ERD Normalized by Pre-Stimulus Mean. am Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 109 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report 1.2.3 Results and Discussion Table 1 shows the results of the blind rank-order judging for the three receivers; Tible 1. AC Results ReceiverThals ES P-value 009 18 2.389 OA32 0.033 372 24 2.500 0.354 0.042 389 28 2.750 0.177 0.175 70 2.571 0.303 0.006 I:iH TWo receivers produced independently significant evidence for AC and the combined data were also significant. Thus we have corrected one of the shortcomings of our earlier efforts; we have independent evidence for AC. Thble 2 shows the results of the non-parameter Wilcoxon sum-of-ranks test between the distributions resulting from the pseudo- and AC-stimuli. Since the total number of stimuli per receiver was over 1600, the statistics shown in Thble 2 are not en- couraging. That is, given we observed significant evidence for AC, how is it that we do not see a signifi- cant CNS response? Table 2. Wilcoxon Statistics for ERDs ReceiverZ-scoreP-value (2t) 009 -0.758 0.448 372 1.509 0.132 389 0.930 0.352 Tbtal 0.938 0.175 To determine the overall sensitivity of our signal detection methodology, we inserted template ERD's into copies of the EEG data. Averaged over all receivers, we found that a 0.2 % change from pre-stimu- lus alpha would lead to a significant difference between the distributions resulting from the AC-stimuli and the pseudo stimuli. This high sensitivity arises primarily because we have over 1600 stimuli per receiver and because the cross correlations technique (i.e., frequently referred to as a matched filter) can be shown to be the best possible signal detection algorithm in a noise environment. Yet, with this sensitivity we did not observe a statistically significant ERD. We must examine some of our basic as- sumptions, if we are to understand this result. One assumption is that a putative ERD would result, on the average, from every AC-stimulus. To test this, we re-analyzed the behavioral data post hoc. Rank-order analysis does not usually indicate the Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 9 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report absolute quality of the A C. For example, a response that is a near-perfect description of the target re- ceives a rank of one. But a response which is barely matchable to the target may also receive a rank of one. Table 3 shows the rating scale that we used to perform a blind assessment of the quality of theAC responses, regardless of their rank. Table 3. 0-7 Point Assessment Scale ScoreDescription 7 Excellent correspondence, including good analytical detail, with essentially no incorrect information 6 Good correspondence with good analytical information and relatively little incorrect information. 5 Good correspondence with unambiguous unique matchable elements, but some incorrect information. 4W 4 Good correspondence with several matchable elements intermixed with incorrect information. 3 Mixture of correct and incorrect elements, but enough of the former to indicate receiver has made contact with the site. 2 Some correct elements, but not sufficient to suggest results beyond chance expectation. 1 Little correspondence. -0 No correspondence. 1b apply this subjective scale to anA C trial, an analyst begins with a score of seven and determines if the description for that score is correct. If not, then the analyst tries a score of six and so on. In this way the scale is traversed from seven to zero until the score-description seems reasonable for the trial. We thought that by analyzing the EEG data only when the AC functioning was high, we might have a better chance of detecting an ERD. Unfortunately, we found no statistical change of the Wilcoxon Z- scores only using data from the upper portions of the scale shown in Thble 3. Thus, we must examine our assumptions further. One implicit assumption in the search for AC-ERDs is that there is a direct casual and temporally stable link between the stimulus and the response. That is, since the data analysis involves an ensemble aver- age over time, we must assume that changes in spontaneous alpha that are not associated with the stim- ulus will be averaged out of the ensemble. It may be, however, that AC is more complex. In Honorton's meta-analysis of the precognition data (Honorton and Ferrari, 1989), the precognition of complex visu- al targets reported by Jahn (1982), and the anecdotal reports of many of our receivers all suggest that AC may not be stable in time. One explanation for the significant improvement in AC when complex targets are used instead of sym- bols maybe related to imagery. If a receiver knows the stimulus set (e.g., in the case of Zener cards; star, cross, square, circle and wavy lines) then he or she is likely unable to differentiate between a vivid inter- nal image of one of the symbols, which results from memory or imagination, and a putative "signal" resulting from AC. In the case of more complex targets, such as National Geographic photographs, Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 10 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA--RDP.96-00 87R000300270001 -1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final tiepow there may be a lesser tendency to remember all possible combinations of elements one may find in such a target pool. If this speculation is correct, then internal imagery is a source of noise, and we might not expect to see changes in occipital alpha. Some receivers report that their internal experiences tend to be kinesthetic rather than visual. These ideas have not been formally tested in the laboratory, yet they are commonly reported by many of our excellent receivers. We have assumed that the CNS will respond as if the AC-signal stimulates neurons near the visual cortex. Given that we were unable to take survey data over the entire scalp, it is possible that we might not have positioned the EEG electrodes for optimal detection of an AC response. lot We recommend that we adopt the new technology of functional magnetic resonance imaging, which can survey the entire CNS. In addition, we suggest that we optimize the target pool to contain the largest possible gradient of Shannon entropy. This should be the best possible next step to observe the CNS's response to an AC stimulus. 2. Data Patterns/Parameter Correlations The task of this section was to identify parameters that would potentially lead to an increase of AC func- tioning and assist in determining optimal protocols for potential applications. 2.1 The Gradient of Shannon's Entropy The primary activity in this category was to determine if the total change of Shannon entropy could be confirmed as an intrinsic target variable. This effort constituted a replication of our finding during the 1992-1993 period, and led to three papers that have been accepted for publication at the Parapsycholog- ical Annual Convention. We include these three papers as Appendices B, C, and D and summarize their findings here. The Ganzfeld experiments as summarized by Bem and Honorton (1994) suggest that using dynamic targets produces stronger results than using static ones. Bem and Honorton, however, only analyzed Ganzfeld studies that included the use of a sender. Since it is known that a sender is not a necessary requirement in forced-choice trials, we designed and carried out a study to see if a sender is required in non-Ganzfeld, free-response trials. In the first of two experiments, five experienced receivers partici- pated in 40 trials each, 10 in each condition of a 2x2 design to explore sender and target type. We observed significant effects for static targets (i.e., exact sum-of-rank probability of p !!_~ 0. 0073, effect size = a248, n=100), chance results for dynamic targets (he.,p'5 0.500, effect size = 0.000, n = 100), and no interaction effects between sender and target-type conditions. One receiver slightly favored the no sender condition (F(1, 36) = 4.43, p :5 0.04), while another slightly favored static targets (F(1,36) = 5.47, p < 0.04). We speculate that these surprising results (i.e., favoring static over dynamic targets) arose, in part, because of the difference between a topically unbounded dynamic target pool and a topi- cally restrictive static pool. In a second experiment, we redesigned the dynamic pool to match more Mai closely the properties of the static pool. Four of the receivers from the first study participated in at least 20 trials each, 10 in each target-type condition. No senders were used throughout this experiment. We observed a significant increase in anomalous cognition for the new dynamic targets (X2 = 9.94Z df = 1, p < 1.6 x 10-~, and an increase in anomalous cognition for the static targets (X2 = 3.158, df = 1, p:5 0.075). We conclude that a sender is not a necessary requirement for free-response anomalous cogni- ,milk Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 mw Approved For Release 2000/08/07 IA-RDFR,6-00787ROO0300270001 -1 ..F Phenomenological Research and Analys s Ina eport tion. A rank-order analysis showed no target-type dependencies in the second study (X2 = 0, df = Lpf~ 0.5), but a rating analysis revealed some difference favoring dynamic targets (t = 1.32, df = 68, p :!!~ aO96) for the significant receivers. Based on our analysis, we believe a fundamental argument suggests 40 that in free-response anomalous cognition experiments, dynamic targets should be better than static ones. The experimental result, however, was surprising-it was directly opposite to the results that were derived from the Ganzfeld database. The topics of the dynamic targets were virtually unfimited, where- as the topics for the static targets were constrained in content, size of cognitive elements, and range of affect. In our second experiment, we redesigned the target pools to correct this unbalance and observed significant improvement of A C functioning. We incorporate these findings into a definition of target pool bandwidth and propose that the proper selection of bandwidth will lead to a reduction of incorrect information in free-response A C. Based upon our early entropy result and using the knowledge gained about the target pool bandwidth, we propose that the average total change of Shannon's entropy is a candidate for an intrinsic target property. We find a significant correlation of the gradient of Shannon's entropy (Spearman's Lo = a337, df = 31, t = 1.99, p < aO28) with an absolute measure of the quality of the anomalous cognition. This aw result is a successful replication of our 1992 finding. Our identification of an intrinsic target property that correlates with the quality of AC is an extremely VO important finding. Not only does it instruct us to select better target material for laboratory studies, but it also guides us in task selection for practical applications. 2.2 Senders In the Ganzfeld Another primary activity in this category was to assess the role of a sender in an AC experiment. We subcontracted to the Psychology Department at the University of Edinburgh to conduct a detailed test using the methodology of the Ganzfeld. Appendix E contains their final reports which detail their ex- periment and results. We summarize their findings in this section. The Ganzfeld methodology differs in three fundamental ways from our usual AC experiment: (1) A mild altered state is used to elicit AC functioning. (2) Senders are used in a "telepathic" modality. (3) The receivers perform their own the rank-order judging in the analysis of the data. Otherwise the Ganzfeld protocol is similar to ours. A receiver is asked to register his/her impression of an isolated target that is randomly selected from a pre-defined set. We asked Dr. Robert L. Morris to use this methodology to determine the role of the sender. As they will be reporting at the next Parapsy- chological Association Annual Convention, they found, as we did, that a sender is not a necessary partic- ipant in successful AC experiments. In addition, they were able to show that the sender may not partici- pate in any significant way in the process. As a consequence of this experiment, they are considering dropping the sender in all of their future experiments. While it is agreed that perhaps for psychological reasons, some receivers may produce better results with a sender, there appear to be no mechanistic arguments favoring the use of a sender. Avg Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 12 ow Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report 2.3 0-Sort Personality Assessment The objective of this study was to explore potential personality variables as they relate to AC ability through the use of the Q~Sort method. 2.3.1 Introduction Historically, a wide range of psychological tests have been used in an attempt to detect correlations be- tween personality variables and AC performance. These tests have included standard clinical batteries as well as the Personality Assessment System (Lantz, 1987). Some of these have yielded statistical cor- relations; however, the magnitude of the correlations are often too small for predictive purposes. The Q-Sort differs -from other methods of personality assessment in that it is not a psychological test, but merely an empirical system devised to permit individual personalities to be comprehensively de- scribed and quantitatively compared. First conceived by William Stephensen, the Q-Sort method has become a useful too] for comparing personality variables between a wide variety of different popula- tions (Block, 1978). For "ample, studies have ranged from examining the differences between effec- do tive and ineffective liars to analyzing the difference between individuals who tend to rely upon external visual fields rather than proprioceptive (i.e., muscular skeletal) cues in determining true vertical. One common difficulty with traditional self-report personality tests is that they ask the subject to identi- fy where they fit on a continuous spectrum of pre-determined dimensions. For example, one dimension of the MBTI ranges between extroversion and introversion. Even if the subject chooses not to describe him/her self in these terms, nonetheless, they must respond. The O-Sort allows the subjects to deter- mine the appropriate dimensions for themselves. 4W In 1989 we conducted a preliminary test of this method using 14 individuals, including three receivers who were known to be talented in anomalous cognition (AC). Cluster analysis was used to assemble the results of individual Q-Sort scores into groups of similar profiles, at the same time attempting to create groups that are as different from one another as possible. The result is a visual display called a cluster diagram. To the 14 receivers, we added three standard profiles; a normal personality profile, two differ ent types of pathology personality profiles, and a tentative AC-Profile; an average of the personality traits of the three known viewers. The result was that the pathological profiles were in a cluster by them selves while the normal profile and the tentative AC-Profile were clustered together with the known ow receivers. As a result of the 1989 Q-Sort work, we proposed to expand the use of the Q-Sort and to attempt to answer the following questions: (1) What personality variables are common to those individuals who perform well on AC tasks? (2) How do the personality descriptions of individuals who do not do well on AC tasks differ from those who do? (3) What might an "ideal" AC profile look like? ow 2.3.2 The O-Sort Method For each individual, the Q-Sort method involved sorting 100 cards into nine categories with an assigned number of cards placed within each category. The 100 Q-Sort cards look something like a deck of nor Aw ma] playing cards, except that on the face of each is written a single psychological statement in' a theoret ically neutral form (e.g., "Initiates Humor"). Each psychological statement is written in a way so as to Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 13 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: FIA-PaDr 6-OW87ROO0300270001 -1 2. F phenomenological Research and Analys 8: Ina epo suggest a continuum rather than an either/or dichotomy. The numbers of cards within each of nine cate- gories must be 5, 8, 12, 16, 18, 16, 12, 8, 5, respectively. The first category represents those psychody- namic elements that are least characteristic of the individual, while the last category represents those elements most characteristic of the individual and the middle categories represent a continuum in be- tween. The prescribed distribution is a powerful tool, in that it forces individuals into making difficult definitive decisions about their own personalities at the extreme ends of a scale while also allowing for some flexibility. The Q-Sort is self-administered and takes approximately 20 minutes per individual. 2.3.2.1 Subject Selection Thirty four individuals participated in the Q-Sort study. All were a self-selected subset of individuals who consented to participate in other AC experiments conducted by SAIC, recruited from the profession- al and academic communities within the greater San Francisco Bay area, drawn from the student and faculty populations of Stanford University, the Institute for Tkanspersonal Psychology, and other neigh- boring educational and research institutions. The age of all participants ranged from 16 to 60. mow 2.3.2.2 Procedure The following is a step-by-step description of the method used to collect the Q-Sort personality as- MW sessments. This process is done only one time by each subject. (1) A participant was greeted by the PI in the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory at Science Applications International Corporation in a warm and friendly way and was shown to a comfortable, quiet loca- tion within the laboratory. (2) Following a brief "get acquainted" period, the procedure was explained and (s)he was encouraged to ask any questions about the nature of the study. (3) The PI provided a consent form, typed instructions, a record sheet, and a deck of 100 Q-Sort cards. (4) The PI left the participant alone to sort the 100 cards into the nine categories. (5) The record sheet, instructions, and deck of cards was then collected by the PI. 2.3.2.3 Analysis No All personality descriptions were put into a computer database for cluster analysis. This kind of analysis assembles Q-Sort descriptions into groups of similar profiles, and attempts to create groups that are as dif- ferent from one another as possible. The result of such an analysis is a visual display of clusters, such as the 40 one in Figure 3. Talented AC receivers are indicated by a (*) and seem cluster around the normal pro- file. Fortunately, the two personality pathology profiles are in a cluster by themselves. 2.3.3 Results and Conclusions The results of the cluster analysis can be seen in Figure 3. Three standard profiles; a normal personality profile, two different types of personality pathology profiles, and a tentative AC-Profile were added to go the analysis. The AC-Profile was composed of the combined Q-Sorts of six known talented receivers (i.e., 454, 372, 009, 389, 518, and 330). These receivers were chosen on the basis of their repeated suc 40 cessfW performance on AC tasks within our laboratory. From our analysis, we find that good AC receiv ers think of themselves as: ~ Possessing a wide range of interest. No o Thinking and associating ideas in unusual ways. ~ Valuing intellectual and cognitive matters. am Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 14 OW Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : QlV-JrDrA6-00 87R000300270001 -1 phenomenological Research and Analysis: Ina epow ~ Concerned with philosophical problems. ~ Being verbally fluent and can express ideal well. They also believe that they are not: ~ Subtly negative and do not tend to undermine, obstruct, or sabotage. ~ Guileful, deceitful, manipulative or opportunistic. ~ Ego-defensive or have a small reserve of integration. ~ Exploitive or create dependencies in people. ~ Self-pitying or feel victimized by life. It remains to be seen if this general statements are predictive of good AC performance. They do, how- ever, represent a personality profile of our best receivers. For example, in a study investigating a possible correlation between ESP and creativity using subjects from a well-know music academy in New York City, Schlitz and Honorton (1992) suggest that subjects who exhibit greater cognitive flexibility and elaboration produce higher AC scores. The five Q-Sort items most characteristic of the AC-Profile would tend to support this idea. The advantages of using the Q-Sort method of personality description is that it is easy and inexpensive to implement and analyze. The problems are that the results are conditioned both by the content of the Q-Sort card set and the willingness of the sorter to give a candid and accurate description of themselves. These results are only preliminary and little can be known until we have a much larger database of reli- able AC viewers. In time it is hoped that the Q-Sort may prove useful in predicting where we should begin to look in the general population to find successful AC viewers. 2.4 Improved AC Evaluation for Applications Under this section, we were asked to provide improved AC analytical techniques that might be more germane in an application setting. We have delivered a complete description of one such technique as a separate document. This technique expands our fuzzy set analysis to include adaptive learning based upon real-time feedback. 3. Theoretical Issues The objective was to identify models for physical mechanisms for AC and to develop protocols for test- able experiments using select individuals. We reported our theoretical approach in an interim technical report; however, we include it here for completeness. 3.1 Probable Futures Since the dawn of history, mankind has been fascinated by the "what ifs" associated with the probabilis- tic paths that form the future and form the myriad worlds of "what might have been." Mankind's fas- cination with predicting the ftiture evolved into the mathematical science of probability theory. Howev- er, classical probability theory is a description which is overlaid on an assumed physical reality. With the advent of quantum theory, alternative paths to the same end took on a physical reality. 'Me very fact that alternative paths exist change the probability of the outcome. There is no classical equivalent. Suddenly the world of "what ifs" has become comingled with the worlds of "what might have been." Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 15 do amt gogyne; P hA ep g9rafNe M%WRWRZisgPF[QfR§p-~9?87ROO0300270001-1 M JOF Or c SO UC OK E 70 D L Ozz M LCL C 69L DEC 9zz W 8 fK 996 69C d:j tZ 99C IBWJON ZOL 6 * UC Cz OLC 906 tGO BE tcS Est 0% DI C6C L PIOUBJUd OPOISAH 01 9*0 0,0 Figure 3. Cluster Diagram Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 16 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report This idea has been experimentally verified in recent experiments conducted at Rochester University. It has been shown that the physical outcome of a quantum mechanical experiment depends not only upon what is being measured, but also on what could be measured, even though it wasn't. The implication for AC mechanisms is that precognition may be the underlying mechanism. If, for some yet unknown reason, humans have access to probable futures rather than actual futures, then the perception appears not to contradict the rules of physics. 3.2 Einstein, Poldasky, Rosen Paradox (EPR) The paradox suggest possible information transport during the collapse of a wave function. It arises naturally when considering two-particle correlations and the effects of measuring the state of one par ticle which gives rise to unambiguous knowledge of the state of the correlated particle even though it may be very far from the measured particle at the time the measurement is made. While no one any longer questions the validity of the predictions of quantum mechanics for correlated systems, the very fact of their validity has caused a philosophical revolution. There is no underlying reality, no absolute Aw reality. There is only reality as defined by measurements made by an observer. There is substantial anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) literature on what are called Observational Theories (OT). It is possible that the EPR paradox and its implications may serve as a physics base for the OU. There is a major problem both with the OTs and EPR as models for perception. Brain func tioning at room temperature appears not to be a quantum system; therefore, care must be exercised low before we can demonstrate the value of EPR for AMP mechanisms. 3.3 General Relativity The recent resurgence of interest in Einstein's general theory of relativity has lead to some startling theoretical conclusions about the nature of space-time again bringing to the forefront the fact that sci- ence has not unveiled all the secrets associated with time. One such piece of work is Matt Visser's paper on traversable wormholes (Visser, 1989). This paper predicts that it is physically possible to transport energy (and, therefore, information) between remote space-time points without traversing the classical distance between the space-time points. For sometime it has been known that even according to Einstein's special theory of relativity, it is pos- sible to describe mathematically a fully consistent universe in which everything moves faster than the speed of light. The particles inhabiting such a universe have been given the name tachyons while, in contrast, the particles with which we are familiar are named tardyons. The important fact is that neither ow particle can ever travel at the speed of light. Photons, of course, are common to both universes. More over, this is a non-quantum mechanical description. We know that in quantum theory it is possible to violate such constraints providing that we do so for short enough periods. The question of whether a Soo tardyon can exist as a tachyon for a short period of time merits investigation. From a heuristic perspective, reverse information flow (i.e., precognition) appears to describe much of the AMP data. While Visser's calculations are not a theory of precognition, at a minimum they demon- strate that physics may allow for the macroscopic, but statistical, breach of causality. We anticipate that a continuation of these ideas may lead to a law for causality similar to the Second Law of Thermody- namics. That is, on the average causality must hold, but locally there may be a slight statistical reversal that is compensated for elsewhere such that the average is correct. Aso Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 17 A roved For ~ehease 2%901~8JQ7 IA-IqRP - -1 a 4 r 1: a, ?&RSX87ROO0300270001 PhUornenologica esearc an na y2s: 4W 3.4 Time and Entropy The relationship between time and entropy is once more open to question. For nearly two hundred years, scientists have taken the position that the entropy of a closed system can never decrease with time ed and that, on the scale of the universe, entropy always increases with increasing time. Recently however, Steven Hawking raised the possibility that macroscopic time or psychological time, the time that we perceive, is actually determined by the change of entropy (Hawking, 1988). Similar conclusions were 1W reached at about the same time by Tony Rothman from the Center for Relativity at the University of Tbxas (Rothman, 1987). Rothman discusses the seven arrows of time that represent the distinction be -W tween microscopic reversible time and the macroscopic time as experienced by intelligent life. This concept was first proposed by Szilard (1929) in the paper, "On the decrease of entropy in a thermody namic system by the intervention of intelligent beings." dw Given that we showed experimentally that the total change of entropy is related to the quality of AC, this theoretical approach seems most promising (May, Spottiswoode and James, 1994). 3.5 Novel Potentials Classical mechanics and, for the most part, quantum mechanics have treated potentials as convenient mathematical descriptions for which there was no physical instantiation. Recently a series of clever ex- periments have dispelled that view by showing that a potential can have an effect on a particle even when there was no corresponding force present. The electromagnetic vector and scalar potentials or torsion fields are examples of such novel potentials. At this time, the existence of anomalous perturbation (AP) remains open. While there are intriguing experiments, the database for A-P is substantially less than for AC. A theoretical approach for AP using novel potentials is probably premature; however, it may be possible that such potentials could act as a "carrier" of AC information. 4. Applied Research The task objective was to focus on items that might lead to improved functioning through protocol mod- ification and to provide demonstrations of potential applications. We conducted three primary activi- ties for this tasking under the direction of physicist S. James P Spottiswoode. 4.1 Replication of a Russian Experiment In a series of papers, Russian physicist Alexander Parkhomov has reported curious results from a simple high energy particle detector equipped with a diffraction grating. Parkhomov's detector consisted of a photographic emulsion with a small air filled space above it sandwiched between two glass plates. A steady potential difference of slightly less than the breakdown voltage of the air gap was maintained across this structure. Parkhomov denoted this device a Narrow Gap Spark Chamber (NGSC) and simi- lar detectors, though with much larger gaps and usually filled with other gases, are widely used for de- tecting high energy particles. Parkhomov mounted periodic structures in front of his detectors, with the intention that these might act as diffraction gratings for particles. These structures resembled optical diffraction gratings, but were composed of alternating layers of high and low density materials, for instance steel/cardboard and glass/air. With this apparatus installed in front of a window and left to aw Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 is low Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report .4 operate for one to two days, Parkhomov reported that a fraction of the resulting emulsions displayed some hundreds of exposed spots per square cm. Furthermore, he reported that regular variations in the spot density across these films was observed consistent with diffraction effects for particles with wave 0i lengths in the range 0.05 to 2 mm. Parkhomov's initial interpretation (Parkhomov, a) of these results was that his apparatus was detecting Imi very low energy electron neutrinos gravitationally trapped in orbits around the earth and sun. He rea- soned as follows: The velocity for a stable earth orbit at ground level is 7.9 Km sec-1 while particles in highly elliptical orbits have a velocity at perigee of 11 Kin sec-1. Parkhomov noted that at 7.9 Kin sec-1 mod and 11 Km sec-1 particles of 23 eV mass would have de Broglie wavelengths of 2.0 mm and 1.4 mm respectively, which were two of the most prominent wavelengths that he had observed in his diffraction experiments. The measurement of the electron neutrino mass is experimentally very difficult, and be- cause of their great theoretical interest in particle physics and cosmology, many groups have worked on the problem. The best current estimate is that the mass is under 13 eV at a 95% confidence level. How- ever, during the 1980's the rest mass of the electron neutrino was experimentally measured by Lyubmov and netyakov at the Institute for Theoretical and Experimental Physics (ITEP) in Moscow to be 23 eV, and Parkhomov used this figure in his calculations. Other particle wavelengths observed in his diffrac- tion experiments he associated with neutrino velocities corresponding to solar and galactic orbits. The interpretation of the observed fringes in terms of gravitationally bound electron neutrinos is prob- dW lematic not only because of the doubtful mass assumption; but, it is also is inconsistent with well estab- lished measurements of the ground level neutrino flux and the neutrino's cross section. The ground level solar neutrino flux is approximately 6 x 1010 CM-2 sec- 1 and the cross section for electron neutri- on nos in the 1 MeV energy range to interact with nuclear matter is around 10-44 CM-2. Given the small mass of the material available in Parkhomov's detector for neutrino capture the expected detection rate is approximately 2 x 10-8 sec-1. Parkhomov reports up to "several hundred tracks per cm2 after a 24 hour exposure," a rate some seven orders of magnitude greater. As this calculation shows, a neutrino flux some 107 times more intense than the solar neutrino flux would have to exist at ground level to ex- plain his results in this manner, but such a flux has not been reported from the many experiments under- way to investigate the solar neutrino shortfall problem. In a subsequent paper, Parkhomov does not mention neutrinos as a possible explanation of his results and refers to an unknown radiation as the cause (Parkhomov, b). Parkhomov's results are extremely intriguing and merit attempted replication. However, at first sight they are sufficiently surprising and the possibility that some artifact exists in his experimental method and equipment cannot be ignored. The small dimensions of the air gaps in his NGSC's render them sensitive to surface contamination and possible arcing due to dirt on the glass plates. Furthermore, the distribution of spots on the films were hand counted under a microscope, a process which is susceptible to error and bias. While he does not present precise statistics for his experiments, he reports that fringe patterns were observed in only 1/3 of the attempts and none at all were observable during two separate periods of two months. If the effects observed are due to the diffraction of real particles, then they show great variability. Alternately the observations may be caused by some uncontrolled experimental or environmental factor including, as some Russian researcher's believe, possible anomalous perturbation effects. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 19 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : QIA--RDF86-010 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Fins oport787ROO0300270001-1 4.1.1 Background Charged with the task of investigating Parkhomov's measurements, two fundamentally different ap- proaches could be taken. * Use the best currently available detector technology. 0 Use an exact replication of his experimental setup. The first option has the advantage that a well understood and stable detection system could be used. However, since the nature of the particles responsible for Parkhomov's results is unknown (if indeed they are due to particles), it is not easy to choose what type of detector to employ. Additionally, if his results were in fact due to some kind of artifact in his detector design, the possibility of discovering this artifact would be lost. The exact replication route permits the discovery of artifacts, if they existed in his work, and does not require us to make assumptions about the properties of the particles, if any, which he detected. We therefore opted to try to reproduce his detector design as precisely as possible from his published description. 4.1.2 Detector Design Parkhomov's description of his detector is fairly detailed, though certain details are not clear. It con- sisted essentially of a stack of two glass plates with a conductive graphite film applied to their outer Sur- faces. Sandwiched into the space between the plates was a small air gap of approximately 200 microns and a photographic emulsion. A potential difference in the range of 2,OOOV to 2,500V was applied across the graphite films. The plates and film were enclosed in a light-proof metal container. No de- tails of how this structure was held together, or how the high voltage was fed to the plates are provided in his papers. Our design is shown in Figure 4. The 101.6 mm by 152.4 mm glass plates are 2.4 mm thick and are enclosed in a box fabricated from mild steel sheet. The bias voltage enters through a coaxial socket mounted in the top of the enclosure and is fed to a track on a piece of printed circuit board (PCB). Mounted on this PCB are eight beryllium-copper springs which make contact with the graphite coating on one of the glass plates. The other half of the external enclosure has similar springs to provide a ground contact to the graphite film on the other plate. A Teflon spacer cut to make a rectangular annulus around the area occupied by the film separates the glass plates. The Be-Cu springs place the glass plates and spacer stack under com- pression when the system is assembled prior to use. The device is designed so that a standard Kodak lithographic sheet film of 127mm by 101.6mm size fits snugly inside the Teflon spacer and the detector can be easily assembled under dark light conditions. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 20 Apgroved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Me enomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report 40 Top Case 4* Circuit Board Be -Cu Contact Graphite 0* Glass 4* Air Gap .4 Film 44 Glass .4 Graphite 0* Bottom Case QW Figure 4. Cross-Section of the Detector (Not to Scale). 4.1.3 Film Measurement and Data Analysis One area where it seemed perfectly reasonable to improve upon Parkhomov's methodology was to au- tomate the process of measuring the position and size of spots on the films. Rather than using a micro- scope and reticule, as did Parkhomov's team, we use a computer image analysis system called khoros. The high contrast lithographic film is developed and scanned by a document scanner at a resolution of 300 dots per inch. The resulting data is processed through a khoros program that locates each exposed spot and returns its coordinates and radius. This data is then further processed in a standard statistical software package, Splus, where we look for. periodicity in the spatial density of the spots for various ranges of spot size. We will use Fourier analysis to look for periodicities in the spot density and Monte- Carlo methods will be utilized to generate random pseudo-images and thus obtain an accurate measure of the significance of the spot distributions observed in the experimental data. 4.1.4 Gratings In accordance with the descriptions given by Parkhomov, we have constructed a number of periodic structures, or gratings. Using glass microscope slides we have made glass/air gratings. We have also prepared gratings using steel sheet and cardboard which are close to the dimensions given by Parkho- mov. All these gratings are linear, rather than circular, and are very similar to those employed by Park- homov. 4.1.5 Experimental Program Currently, we have two finished detectors with four others in the process of construction. Our intention is to run six detectors simultaneously to look at a large number of combinations of diffraction gratings and orientations. Presently we are testing our first detectors to determine whether the observed spots on the exposed films are due to the passage of cosmic rays and other extraneous radiation, or to sparks unconnected with particle events. We are concerned that with the high field present in the air gap be- tween the glass plates, we may be seeing spots due to discharges occurring at points where there is con- Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 21 Iwo . Rafi-QOAR000300270001 -1 APR&?i'6Mg8foUOMRsigP&(%'Wg7An&iA,.~,P tamination on the surface of the glass plates. The system may also be sensitive to the ambient humidity 4W and we are investigating whether there is a relationship between humidity and spot density. As a defini tive test of background radiation detection we are currently comparing results from the detector when to placed on the roof, and in the basement, of a five story building. Cosmic ray flux should vary by more than 50% between these locations, and we wish to check that the spot density registered by the detector agrees with these calculations. A typical early test exposure from the detector is shown on Figure 5. WON Figure 5. Test Exposure: 2,250 Volts for 28 Hours. In comparison with Parkhomov's published photographs and statistics, the spot density on this film is No much smaller. The reason for this discrepancy is currently unknown. We expect to have accumulated some hundreds of hours of recording time with these detectors in the next months; at which time, more definitive conclusions about Parkhomov's work should be possible. AV Recent results of our test chambers are very suggestive of the same effects that Parkhomov has seen. We will provide the final results of this experiment as they become available. mo 4.2 Attempts at Message Sending Using AC The objective of this experiment was to adapt a standard AC experiment to a forced-choice situation. mi An additional objective was to incorporate fuzzy set technology into a "crisp," two-by-five, error cor recting block code to improve AC detection in a message sending/receiving metaphor. We reported this experiment in an interim technical report; however, we summarize it here for completeness. 10 4.2.1 Background In the Spring of 1992, SAIC conducted a pilot experiment that was designed to explore the potential for maximizing the reliability of AC responses through objective and rapid analysis. In this study, we Te- verted to using a dichotomous binary procedure as opposed to a fuzzy set technique. By carefully select- ing the dichotomous elements, we could use standard block coding techniques to incorporate complete single error correction, also including a few two-fold corrections as well. We used a message sending motif as a test-bed for this kind of analysis. Unfortunately, in that experiment, only one receiver demonstrated an effect size larger than 0.20 (i.e., 0.22) for evidence of an AC phenomena, and no evidence of enhanced detection of AC was seen. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 22 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Phenomenological Research and Analysis: Final Report A number of difficulties were discovered in this experiment that may have rendered the results incon- clusive: 0 In an attempt to make the targets dichotomous within target packs and at the same time interesting to view, targets within the pool ranged in scale from a panoramic scene of a cityscape to a photograph of three chairs or an image of three geometric shapes, and thus possessed a large target-pool bandwidth (i.e., a large set of differing target elements). Since receivers were told in advance that the targets could contain absolutely any material, they were unable to censor their internal experiences, which may have resulted in enhanced intrinsic receiver noise, and thus added "noise" to the response. * Each encoding bit was linked to only one precept (e.g., the single target element of water). This exag- gerated the importance of the chosen dichotomous elements. For example, if a receiver failed to sense water in the target but managed to sense most other aspects of the target, regardless of whether they were part of the bit structure, then the BCH coding was not particularly applicable. 0 In an AC application, a fundamental imbalance existed in the bit structure. The BCH coding assumes that binary zero is "assertive." That is, in AC when water is not indicated in the response, it is equiva- lent to indicating the water is definitely not in the target. Unfortunately, in AC experiments it is pos- sible or even likely that unless a receiver specifies explicitly that water is not present, then the pres- ence or absence is indeterminate. Maybe water exists in the target but was not noticed or was unreported by the receiver. Similarly, water may not exist in the target and a non-response is equiva- lent to an assertive no. These two cases are, of course, indistinguishable. The net effect is to render the BCH coding invalid. In the current experimental protocol, we attempted to correct the problems discussed above so that potential enhancement of the detection of AC might be optimized. The following modifications were made: 9 The target-pool bandwidth was reduced by using the National Geographic static target pool, which has been successful for many previous AC experiments. * Sensitivity to single BCH encoding bits was reduced by using a number of fuzzy-set elements to define each BCH bit. Thus, each BCH bit did not rely upon a single precept, but rather represented classes of different precepts. We had anticipated that these improvements would allow for much stronger AC and provide a more sensitive test of whether BCH error-correcting could be successfully applied to AC detection. We used long-distance associative AC tasks as a test bed for this procedure. This experiment was similar to a traditional AC experiment. A target was selected randomly; a receiver was asked to describe that target; and a quantitative assessment of the match was made. It differs, how- ever, only in the construction of the targets and in the quantitative analysis. 4.2.2 Conclusions No receiver produced significant deviations in the sum-of-ranks statistic, and binary numbers were not determined beyond chance expectation. Even though our best receivers participated in this particular study, their results were not up to the standard which we have traditionally seen from them. We could speculate that possibly the experimental conditions were significantly different from their usual ex- pectations (i.e., at home or in our laboratory) and that travel and performance anxiety may have con- tributed to the lack of AC functioning; however, very occasionally do they not perform as expected and 2w excuses are not necessary. We strongly urge that a replication be tried under laboratory conditions to test the new approach of the fuzzy set encoding. At this time, even though there are a few excellent ex- no Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 23 MW 8~VFQ OP7084ROO0300270001 -1 ApRSRXI%Skog6~ahlifeesigr%W%tlgi, aqY& am h na~We amples in the literature of using AC for message sending, we suggest that this might not be an optimum use of the phenomenon. doo 4.3 Improved Analysis We have delivered an approach to the analysis of application-oriented AC using fuzzy set technology as part of a separate document. We summarize the pertinent aspects of the approach here for complete AW ness. We have been conducting application-like experiments for a number of years. These test-bed experi AN ments have an advantage in that total ground truth is known in advance. A list of items, therefore, can be constructed that-would generally be of interest. We illustrate this approach to fuzzy set analysis with one of our test-bed experiments. We constructed three categories of items: (1) Functions of the Site, (2) mo Physical Relationships, and (3) Objects. Thble 4 shows a partial list of these three types of items for our test-bed experiment. The complete list spans many pages. Thble 4. Partial Element List for a Test-bed Experiment Thrget/Response Element w T(jL) R(IL) Functions (1.0) Directed Energy 5 1.0 0.9 Test Experiment 2 1.0 1.0 Noise Generation 1 0.4 0.6 Operation in Space 1 0.0 1.0 Relationships (0.75) Power Source Above Beam 1 1.0 0.0 Line Electrons Flow Through 1 1.0 0.7 Beam Line Pipes in and out of Sphere1 0 1.0 Objects (0.5) External Electron Beam 2.5 1.0 0.0 mw High Security Area 1 1.0 1.0 Bundled Metal Rods 1 0.0 1.0 TWo types of data must be incorporated into such a list to provide an accurate measure; an a priori list of items that are definitely part of the target and items that are mentioned by the receiver that were not q1W recognized as being part of the target. In Thble 4, we have indicated overall weighting factors of 1.0, 0.75, and 0.5 for functions, relationships, and objects, respectively. That is, in this experiment, we were primarily interested in functions. Depending upon the task, the formalism accepts any appropriate weighting factors. The column w is a within-group weighting factor. That is, the item Directed Energ is five time more important than is Noise Generation. T(,u) represents the degree to which the item is pres ent in the target. For example, although Noise Generation is present in the target, it is roughly only 40% apparent; whereas Pipes in and out of Sphere is not present at a] I. R(y) is the degree to which the analyst is convinced that the element is indicated in the response. For example, the analyst was 90% convinced AW Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 24 mw an n OPOJRO00300270001 arcgI08TJ :8YY f91P9 078 PffiR4y1%d nFolor gqceal T lye. .2 0 0 115- -1 naPW that the receiver meant Directed Energy even though it was not specifically mentioned. All items that are specifically mentioned receive an R( u) = 1. Notice that we included all items mentioned by the receiver regardless if the itern was present in the target. We set their relative weights all equal to one. To arrive at a meaningful number from these data, we use ftizzy set formalism (May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and Rask, 1990b). We compute the accuracy and the reliability of the response to the target system. The accuracy is the fraction of items in the target that were described correctly, and the reliability is the fraction of items in the response that were present in the target system. It is possible to obtain a very accurate description with poor reliability. Suppose the receiver inserted an encyclopedia as his or her response. In principle, nearly all aspects of the target might be mentioned; however, a large number of response-items would not be present in the target. Thus the certification number, the value which may be used to describe the quality of the response, must be related to both the accuracy and the reliability. Formally, the accuracy and reliability are defined by: N Wj Min[T,~u),R,~u)] Accuracy N I Wj Tjw j-1 N I Wj Min[Tj(u),R,~u)] Reliability N 7. Wj Rj(,u) j-1 low where N is the total number of elements in the evaluation form; Tj and P, are the target and response score for elementj; and Wj is the product of the within-group weight, w, and the group weight. For ex- MW ample, in the Functions group the w are equal to the Wbecause the functions weight is one. Since the Relationships group weight is 0. 75, the within-group weights shown in Thble 4 must all be multiplied by MW 0. 75 to form the Wj for those elements in this group. To be sensitive to the interplay betweenAccuracy and Reliability, we propose that Certijication = Accu- racy x Reliability. go To illustrate the use the Equations 1, we demonstrate how to compute these items using only the data we show in Thble 4. We find the Accuracy = 0. 744. the Reliability = 0. 764, and Certification = 0.568. Ran- dom utterances compared to random targets roughly yield 0. 3 for both Accuracy and Reliability. Thatis approximately 1/3 of whatever is said can be found in any target and 1/3 of any target can be described regardless what is said. An approximate minimum Certification of 0. 1 would represent chance matches. Anything above 0.3 would can be considered as solid evidence of "contact" with the target even in an SG1A application setting. AW Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 25 Now SG1A Approved Fqr MeaseW0010 SOT : C -1 , sj~jffPlQ$M787ROO0300270001 Phenomenologica eseard and hays 26 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 %62yneASp0rgVCeaMesSe 2r) 0108 : FIA P P -007ft7ROO0300270001-1 . RnaJ6 n yslj_ 0 C% SnJW MW a a Repo dw Ill. GLOSSARY AW Not all the terms defined below are germane to this report, but they are included here for completeness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define: ~ Anomalous Cognition (AC~-A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are absent. That is, some individuals are able to gain access to information by an as yet unknown process. ~ Agma-An individual who attempts to influence a target system. ~ AnalyAl-An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. 9 AF_-A form of interaction with matter in which all known physical mechanisms are absent. That is, some individuals are able to influence matter by an as yet unknown process. ~ Eeedb ack-After a response has been secured, information about the intended target is displayed to the receiver. ~ Mmilu-An individual who monitors an AC session to facilitate data collection. ~ ELQLQggj-A template for conducting a structured data collection session. ~ Recei er-An individual who attempts to perceive and report information about a target. ~ Egappno-Material that is produced during an AC session in response to the intended target. ~ Sender/Beacon-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended target, acts as a putative transmitter to the receiver. ~ Sisaim-A time period during which AC data are collected. ~ Spggially-A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of targets (e.g., people as opposed to buildings). ~ 3hrW-An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event). ~ Thrget Designation-A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates). 1W am MW Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 27 MW oved For re se 2rQ 0a/0 7 : Clf - P -e0p07A7R000300270001-1 Ca1qR eseac% nW%n ysi.W 098hromenolog a n8% REFERENCES Bern, D. J. and Honorton, C. (1994). Does psi exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous process of information transfer. Psychological Bulletin, 115, 1, 4-18. Berger, H. (1930). Uber das Elektrenkephalogramm des Menschen. J. Psychol. Neuro., 40. 160-179. Block, J. (1978) The Q-Sort Method In Personality Assessment and Psychiatric Research. Consulting Psychologists Press, Inc., Palo Alto, CA. Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical Power Analysis for the Behavioral Sciences, Second Edition. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Hillsdale, NJ. Hawking, S. (1988), A Brief History of Time, Bantam Books. Honorton, C. (1975). Error Some Place! Journal of Communication, 103-116. Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D. C. (1989). 'Future Telling:' A Meta-analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987. Journal of Parapsychology, 53, 282-308. Jahn, R. G. (1982). The persistent paradox of psychic phenomena: an engineering perspecitve. Proceedings of the IEEE. 70, 2, 136-170. Kaufman, L., Schwartz, B., Salustri, C., and Williamson, S. J. (1990). Modulation of spontaneous brain activity during mental imagery. Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 2. 2. 124-132. Klimesch, W., Pfurtscheller, G., and Lindinger, G. (1987). Das Corticale Aktivierungsmuster bei Verbalen Gedaechtnisaufgaben. Sprache Kognition. 140-154. Lantz, N. (1987). Review of the personality assessment systern. Final Report, Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California. May, E. C., Targ, R., and Puthoff, H. E. (1977). Possible EEG correlates to remote stimuli under conditions of sensory shielding. Electro 77 Professional Program, Special Session: The State of the Art in Psychic Research, IEEE, New York, NY. May, E. C. Luke, W L. W, Tkask, V V., and Frivold, T J. (1990a). Observation of neuromagnetic fields in response to remote stimuli. The Proceedings of the Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 33rd Annual Convention, National 4-H Center, Chevy Chase, MD. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B. S., Luke, W L. W, Frivold, T J.. and T~ask, V V (1990b). Advances in remote viewing analysis. Journal of Parapsychology, 54. 194-228. May, E. C., Luke, W L. W, and Lantz, N. D. (1992), Phenomenological research and analysis. Final Report: 6.2 and 6.3, Science Applications International Corporation, Cognitive Sciences Laboratory. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L. (1994). Shannon entropy as an intrinsic target property: Tbward a reductionist model of anomalous cognition. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. Parkomov, A.G. (a). Experimental Detection of Weakly-Interacting Low Energy Particles. Private communication (1993). Parkomov, A.G. (b). Spark Chamber and Periodic Structures: Unknown Radiation Recording. Private communication (1994). Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 28 Approved For Release 2000/08AO7 : ~A~R 3., IIDVA6 Phenomenological Research an nalyss: na O~OSJVR000300270001-1 Pfurtscheller, G. and Aranibar, A. (1977). Event-related cortical desynchronization detected by power measurements of scalp EEG. Electroencephalography and Clinical Neurophysiology, 42. 817-826. Pfurtscheller, G. and Aranibar, A. (1979). Evaluation of event-related desynchronization (ERD) preceding and following self-paced movement. Electroencephalography and Clinical Neumphysiology, 46.138-146. Pfurtscheller, G., Lindinger, G., and YJimesch, W (1986). Dynamisches EEG-Mapping-Bildgebendes Verfahren fuer die Unterschung Perzeptiver, Motorischer und Kognitiver Hirnleistunger. Z EEG-EMG, 17.113-116. Puthoff, H. E. and Thrg. R. (1976). A perceptual channel for information transfer over kilometer distances: Historical perspective and recent research. Proceedings of the IEEE, 64, 3, 329-354. Radin, D. I. and Nelson, R. D. (1989). Evidence for consciousness-related anomalies in random physical systems. Foundations of Physics, 19, 12, 1499-1514. Rothman, I (February 1987). Discover, p. 63. Rebert, C. S. and Thrner, A. (1974). EEG spectrum analysis techniques applied to the problem of psi phenomena. Physician's Drug Manual, 4., 1-8, 82-88. Sergeant, J., Geuze, R., and Van Winsum, W. (1987). Event-related desynchronization and P300. Psychophysiology, 24. 272-277. 1W Schlitz, M J. and Honorton, C. (1992). ESP and creativity in an exceptional population. Journal of the American Societyfor Psychical Research, 86. 2, 83-98. Schlitz, M. J. and LaBerge, S. (1994). Autonomic Detection of remote observation: TWo Conceptual am Replications. The Proceedings of the Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 37th Annual Convention, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Szilard, L. (1929). On the decrease of entropy in a thermodynamic system by the intervention of im intelligent beings. Zeitschriftf4rPhysik, 53.840-856. Can be found in English in Maxwell's Demon: Entropy, Information, Computing, H. S. Leff and A. E Rex Eds., Princeton Series in Physics, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ (1990). ow Utts, I M. (1988). Successful replication versus statistical significance. Journal of Parapsychology, 52, 305-320. Utts, J. M. (1991). Replication and meta-analysis in parapsychology. Statistical Sciences, 6, 4, 363-403. MW Visser, M. (1989). Physical Review D, 39. No. 10. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 29 cad M10 Ma A roved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-FZRP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 R Apenomenological Research and Analy., nal eport APPENDIX A Autonomic Detection of Remote Observation: Two Conceptual Replications Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 30 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT AUTONOMIC DETECTION OF REMOTE OBSERVATION: Two Conceptual Replicationsl Marilyn J. Schlitz Cognitive Sciences Laboratory, Science Applications International Corporation and Stephen LaBerge The Lucidity Institute ABSTRACT: Two experiments were conducted to measure the extent to which people are able to unconsciously detect another person staring at them from a distance. A closed-circuit television set-up was employed in which a video camera was focused on the experimental volunteer (Observee) while a person in another room (Observer) concentrated on the image of the distant person as displayed on a color monitor; this procedure was used to preclude any conventional sensory contact between the two people. During the experimental session, the Observee's galvanic skin responses were monitored. An automated and computerized system was programmed to record and average the physiological responses of the Observee during 32 30-second monitoring periods. A random sequence was used to schedule 16 periods of remote observation and 16 control periods when no observation efforts were attempted. A within-subjects evaluation was made for each experimental session with a comparison between the 'mean amount of autonomic nervous system activity during the experimental and control conditions. Twenty four sessions were conducted in each of two experiments. As predicted, both experiments yielded significantly more autonomic activity during the remote observation periods as compared to control periods (Experiment 1: t=1.878, p<036, 1-t, es=.36; Experiment 2: t=2.360, p<014, 1-t, es=.44). As preplanned, the two experiments were combined to increase statistical power, yielding a significant t-value of 2.652 (p<005, 1-t, es=.36). The authors wish to acknowledge the technical support, design contributions, and general encouragement of WiWarn Braud and the staff of the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory. For editorial assistance, we appreciate the useful suggestions offered by Rick Berger and Christian de Quincey. Additional support was provided by the Institute of Noetic Sciences. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDF196-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRG,4-pproved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 INTRODUC17ON The past few decades have witnessed an increasing interest in the possibility of direct mental influences on living systems. A diverse range of experiments have been conducted by researchers within the United States, Canada, and Europe (for reviews, see Benor, 1990; Dossey, 1993; May and Vilenskaya, 1994; Solfvin, 1984). In a typical experiment, some physiological activity or other selected behavior is monitored in the context of a formal laboratory experiment. Efforts are made by experimental participants to influence a distant biological target system with a comparison between experimental conditions and non-influence or control conditions. Target systems for these experiments have included micro-organisms, plants, animals, and human physiology or motor activity (Schlitz, 1983, 1994). Based on this database, there is compelling evidence to support the hypothesis that people are able to use intentionality to bring about changes in distant target systems under conditions that preclude conventional sensory or motor exchange. At the least, the findings are intriguing and worthy of further research; at the best, the data have profound scientific, social, and philosophical implications. One promising area of research involves the influence of human autonomic nervous system activity by a distant person. Braud and Schlitz (1992) reported statistically significant differences across a series of 13 experiments in which periods of intentionality to affect the physiology of a distant person were interspersed with counter-balanced control periods. This research led to the development of a protocol designed to measure the degree to which people are able to unconsciously detect someone observing them from a distance. Many people have had the experience of being stared at from a distance, only to turn around and discover a pair of eyes gazing upon them. Indeed, survey data support the widespread distribution of these experiences. As early as 1913, J.E. Coover reported that 68-86% of respondents in California had this type of experience on at least one occasion. A survey of the Australian population reported that 74% of the respondents had such an experience (Williams 1983), 85% within a student population at Washington University in St. Louis, (Thalbourne and Evans, 1992) 94% of those surveyed in San Antonio, Texas (Braud, Shafer, and Andrews 1990), and 80% of those informally surveyed in Europe and America (Sheldrake 1994). Several attempts have been made to explore these claims within a laboratory setting. A review of this literature was reported by Braud, et al. (1990), who identified four studies. The first was conducted by E.B. Titchener, a Cornell University psychologist during the late 1800's. WI-dle a brief article on the work reported negative results, he did not provide details of his study. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-ROP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 .W ICPYRGH~ Pproved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 In a slightly later study, Coover (1913) conducted a study on remote staring in his initial work as the Thomas Welton Stanford Psychical Research Fellow in the Psychology Department of Stanford University. Each of 10 subjects made 100 guesses as to whether or not they were being stared at by an experimenter seated behind them in the same room. A random schedule of remote observation (R0) and non-observation periods was determined by the rolling of a die. Each observation period was of a 15-20 second duration over a several hour series of sittings spanning a period of weeks. Having obtained chance results, Coover interpreted his findings as support for the belief that staring detection was empirically groundless. A second study was carried out in 1959 by J.J. Poortman (1959) of Leyden University in the Netherlands. In this study, the two people were separated in two rooms but still within sensory range. The experiment spanned a 13- month period. The remote /non-remote observation intervals were of 2-5 minute duration based on a random sequence determined by card shuffling. This resulted in a 59.35% accuracy rate (p=.04 1-0. A better controlled experiment than the previous two was reported by Donald Peterson (1978), a graduate student at the University of Edinburgh. Following two informal pilot studies, the investigator made use of a procedure in which the subjects were positioned in separate, adjacent closed cubicles. One-way mirrors and special lighting provided visual perception in one direction and button pushes were used to measure the subject's perception of RO/non-RO periods. In 36 experimental sessions, each of six minute duration, there was a significant effect (p=.012, 2-t). This experimental design was further improved by Linda Williams (1983), a student in the Psychology Department of the University of Adelaide (South Australia). Subjects were positioned in rooms at a 60 foot distance and were monitored via a closed-circuit video camera/monitor arrangement. MW Through the use of carefully controlled randomization procedures, the author reported significant RO detection guesses (p=.04, 1-t). so Based on the four experimental studies, Braud, et al (1990) concluded that there is suggestive evidence to support the hypothesis that people can consciously discriminate periods of RO from non-RO under conditions that controlled for subtle sensory cues. The effect size in these studies was not particularly strong, however. This, according to Braud and his colleagues, was due to the fact that "the testing method used in these studies was not the most appropriate one" (p. 17). In particular, the authors argued that the use of conscious guessing might be less relevant to everyday life experiences, in which RO detection takes the form of bodily sensations and spontaneous behavioral changes. For example, people frequently report the prickling of neck hairs or the tingling of the skin. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP98-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGA-pproved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 With these considerations in mind, Braud, et al (1990) designed an experimental procedure based on the hypothesis that remote observation may be detected at the level of sympathetic autonomic nervous system activity. In a series of three experiments (Braud, Shafer, and Andrews 1990, 1992), a person stared at a distant subject through the use of a closed-circuit television system while the autonomic nervous system activity of the subject was being monitored via chart recorder and computer. The experimental design, like previous studies involving remote mental influences on human physiology (e.g., Braud and Schlitz 1989, 1992; Schlitz and Braud, 1986) allowed a within- subjects evaluation of RO versus non-RO (control) periods. The researchers reported that the electrodermal properties of receivers correlated significantly with the intense attention of the isolated and remote experimenter (i.e., p=0.009, effect size per session=0.59). Results were bi-directional, depending on the attitude of the Observer. In addition to the main effects, Braud et al (1992) reported a positive correlational trend between social avoidance and the degree of change in the subject's electrodermal activity. This was measured by administering the Social Avoidance and Distress (SAD) scale (see below). Increasing degrees of social avoidance /distress /anxiety were also found to positively correlate with introversion. The present experiments were designed as conceptual replications of the work by Braud, Shafer, and Andrews. Further, we extended previous studies of remote influence on autonomic nervous system activity by Braud and Schlitz (1989, 1992). Two formal predictions were made. First, we anticipated a significant difference in the mean rate of autonomic activity in experimental compared with control conditions across subjects. Second, we predicted the direction of the effect by instructing the remote Observers to activate the distant person. As such, we predicted an increase in autonomic activity during remote observation as compared with control conditions. In addition to the primary hypotheses, we anticipated a significant correlation between social avoidance and the remote observation effect. On an exploratory basis, we also examined the social relationship between Remote Observers and Observees; this included the interaction of gender and cross- gender pairs. METHODS Apparatus The equipment utilized in this research included silver/silver chloride palmar electrodes, a skin-conductance amplifier, an analog-to digital converter interfaced with an IBM microcomputer, a SUN computer with modem, and a Approvea F;or Release 2000/08/07: CIA-IIDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 C closed circuit television, that included a color video camera, two VCR's, two video monitors, and a tripod to hold the video camera. The camera's radio frequency output was boosted by a 10 dB amplifier then conveyed via shielded cable to the color monitor in the Remote Observer's room. Assessments During Experiment 1, each experimental participant completed four forms /assessments. The first was a consent form. The second was used in preliminary screening and consisted of general biographical information as well as a health condition assessment. Third was a psychological inventory measuring introversion/extroversion through the use of the NEO Personality AN Inventory (Costa & McRae 1985). This instrument measures six facets of extroversion, including (1) Warmth, (2) Gregariousness; (3) Assertiveness; (4) Activity; (5) Excitement Seeking; (6) Positive Emotions. The fourth assessment was the Social Avoidance and Distress scale (SAD), which measures social-evaluative anxiety (the experience of distress, discomfort, fear, and anxiety in social situations) and deliberate avoidance of social situations. This self-report scale emphasizes subjective experience, and it excludes physiological signs as well as times related to impaired performance. In Experiment 2, the NEO Personality Inventory was not used, due to the fact that participants generally disliked the assessment based on redundancy of questions and length of time needed to complete the form. Subjects Each of the two experiments involved 24 trials. In Experiment 1, this consisted of one person per trial as the experimental "target" or "Observee" and 4 remote "Observers," each working with different target persons during 6 sessions. In Experiment 2, 16 subjects participated, with 5 subjects contributing two or three sessions each. This was done on the basis of the expressed interest and availability of some volunteers. Under the null hypothesis, this repeated use of participants does not violate statistical assumptions about the remote observation effect (Utts, nd). Further, no claims are made about the generalizability of the effect in the general population, since all participants were self-selected on the basis of their interest in the study or their relationship to the experimenters. Volunteers were recruited by NUS through notices that were handed out or posted in the greater San Francisco Bay area, as a result of lectures at neighboring universities and professional societies, as well as through personal contacts. Observers were drawn from the subject pools of the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory and from the same community as used for recruiting Observees. The age of all participants ranged from 16 to 60. They were in good health based on the health assessment. ApProved For Release 2000/08107: CIA-RDP90-00787ROO0300270001-1 .W CPYR(ikl;~roved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Experimental Procedure AW .4 -14 The basic experimental design was the same for both experiments; exceptions to this are outlined following the general description. Subjects were greeted by the experimenter in the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory at Science Applications International Corporation. They were treated in a warm and friendly way. Following a brief "get acquainted" period, the experiment was explained to them. They were encouraged to ask any questions and to understand the nature of the study. They were introduced to the "Observer" with whom they would be working and were told that the "Observer" would try to get their attention or "wake them up" during randomly selected periods. Efforts were made during this period to ascertain the types of images or thoughts that might be useful to the Observer in order to startle or excite the Observees. Hence, the participants were aware of the hypothesized direction of the effect, although they were blind as to the order, number and duration of the sampling periods. This differed from the Braud, et. al studies during which no direction of effect was hypothesized and Observers were instructed to simply look at the distant person's image--.-ather than trying to influence the person directly. Rather, the goal of influencing the distant person in a pre specified direction was based on previous research on remote mental influences reported by Braud and Schlitz (1989). Three rooms were used for the experiment (see Figure 1). During an experimental session, each volunteer was taken to an experimental room, where they were seated in a chair and the skin electrodes attached to the palm of their non-dominant hand. As was the case in the Braud, et al studies, they were asked to complete the experimental forms with their dominant hand, keeping their non-dominant hand as still as possible. A video tape called Illuminations, which provides amorphous colors accompanied by a musical sound track, was played for the volunteer on the VCR and headphones in the experimental room. The presentation timing of this video was held constant throughout the experiment. This VCR was not in any way connected to the experimental equipment used to measure the remote observation effect. The Observee was told that the video camera would be on throughout the session, but that the remote Observer would be watching them through the monitor in the distant room only at certain randomly determined times. The Observee was asked not to try to guess consciously when those periods (of which the Observee was kept 'blind") might be occurring, and was told that we were exploring whether unconscious physiological reactions might be associated with RO. The experimenter (MJS) left the subject alone in the experimental room and moved to the computer, wl-dch was set up in the adjacent control room. The experimenter checked the electrode conductance. Following this, she returned to the Experimental Room, started the Illuminations videotape, and dosed the door. The audio track on the video controlled for the possible Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-WP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRG~T pproved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 influence of extraneous sounds that might influence the Observee. She passed through the computer room, crossed the hallway, and entered the Observer's room, advising the Observer that the-session was about to begin and wished the Observer luck, and reminded them to activate the distant person when their image appeared on the experimental monitor. She then closed the Observer's Room door and returned to the Computer Room. At this point, the experimenter started the microcomputer that controlled the session events, including timing of the physiological sampling periods and recording of data during 32 30-second periods. As such, the experimenter was completely blind as to the sampling periods during any interactions with the participants. Each of the 16 recording periods during the experimental (RO) conditions of the experiment was signaled to the remote Observer when the distant person's image appeared on the monitor in the Observer's Room. During these periods, the Observer stared intently at the television image throughout the 30-second recording period. During control periods, the Observer read a book or otherwise tried to shift their attention from the distant person. The Remote Observer received no feedback during the session about the Observee's physiological activity. The equipment sampled the Observee's spontaneous phasic skin conductance responses (SCR) once a second for the 30 seconds of a recording period. A random pause of 0 to 5 seconds was inserted in order to eliminate potential artifacts due to possible guessing of the experimental sequences and to rule out possible cycles that might occur in the Observee's physiology. The experimental sampling then continued with the next block. The subjects were randomly assigned to one of two experimental LW sequences that were counter-balanced for time effects across the experiment. The randomization sequence was generated by the second author (SB) through U6 the use of a random number generator. These consisted of blocks of four conditions: control, observation, observation, control or observation, control, control, observation. These sequences were randomized in blocks of 6, with equal numbers of the two conditions across the experiment. This was done to assure a balance of two conditions and to control for any temporal drift in -the autonomic activity of the participant. Digitized data were stored on disk for U20 later analysis and copied over to the SUN system for backup security and transport via modem to the second author. The mean value of skin conductance activity for each 30-second period was used in the analyses. RESULTS For each experimental session, a total score was calculated for all 32 recording periods (16 observation and 16 control). A chi-square goodness of fit test indicated that the scores of these sessions did not differ significantly from normality; therefore, parametric statistics were used in their evaluation. A single mean t-test was calculated with 23 degrees of freedom for each of the Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-Rc7p96-00787ROO0300270001 -1 CPYRGA$Tproved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDPqR-nn7R7pnnninn,3,7nnn-i -i two experiments. In Experiment One, the obtained t-value was 1.878, p<036 (1-t), es=.36. In Experiment Two, the obtained t value was 2.360, p<.014 (1-t), es=.44. As a pre-planned analysis, the combined results of the two experiments were combined, yielding a significant t-value of 2.652, p<.005 (1-t), es=.36, with 47 degrees of freedom. These results supported our two primary hypotheses, providing significant differences in the autonomic activity of Observees during RO and non-RO conditions in the direction of autonomic nervous system activation. Secondary analyses were computed for the psychological data collected on the basis of the NEO and SAD assessments for experiment 1 and on the SAD assessment for experiment 2. Linear correlation coefficients (Pearson r's) were calculated but no significant relationships were found. To assess the ROE-SAD relationship, Pearson r's were computed for the percent electrodermal activity occurring during the RO versus the SAD scores. Again, no significant relationship was found. In the first experiment, it was noted that there was a relationship between the gender of "Observer" and of the "Observee" in the remote observation experiment. As such, it was decided to analyze this sex pair relationship across the two experiments. This was done through the use of a W ANOVA (see Figure 2). Results yielded a significant interaction across sex pairs (p<01, 2-t). Opposite sex pairs showed a larger experimental effect than same sex pairs. ALTERNATTVE HYPOTHESES Various alternative hypotheses to remote observation may be considered to account for the obtained results. These are described below, as well as the rationale for discounting each of them. 11W No so MW (1) The results are due to internal rhythms that may have influenced the Observee's autonomic nervous system activity. This potential artifact has been ruled out by utilizing a random and counter-balanced schedule of experimental and control periods. (2) The results are due to sensory cues or other uncontrolled external stimuli. Based on the experimental design, this alternative hypothesis can be rejected. There were no known or obvious factors that could have influenced the Observee based on the random schedule of experimental and control periods. (3) The results are due to chance correspondences between the Observer's observations and the Observee's physiological responses. The use of conventional statistical techniques, as well as the existence of effect sizes in the predicted direction, minimize the likelihood of coincidence. Of course, such a codfficiden is expected to occur once in 200 experiments, according to our statistics. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDN6-00787RO00300270001-1 =w CPYR4ppro"' For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 -.0 - moo f the (4) The results are due to recording errors or motivated misreadings 0 data. The data were recorded through the use of an automated procedure that eliminated human error in data recording. (5) Observees knew the target sequence and so manipulated their physiology to conform to the experimenter's expectations. The use of a random sequence that was accessed after all pre-experimental interactions with the Observee ruled out this potential artifact. (6) The results are due to arbitrary selection of data. The number of trials and subjects was specified in advance and the reported analyses include all recorded data that fell within the experimental protocol. CONCLUSIONS This research provides an independent conceptual replication of the remote observation experiments conducted by Braud, et. al, under conditions that rule out conventional sensory exchange between experimental participants. The work builds upon an increasing data base suggesting that people are able to interact with one another at non-sensory levels, including the mental influence of one person upon another person's physiology (e.g., Braud and Schlitz 1989; May and Vilenskaya, 1994). As is often the case in research, the findings raise more questions than MW answers. More research is needed to better understand the mechanisms at play in this work. For example, a larger study designed to systematically manipulate the direction of the effect would be useful. Another promising eu area of research would address the possible role of influence as compared with information acquisition in an ostensible information exchange process. 40 Following the work of May, Radin, Hubbard, Humphrey, and Utts (1986), this leads us to ask whether the results can be accounted for by a distant influence on the part of the Observer or to a passive responsiveness on the part of the Observee. Lastly, more research is needed to assess the degree to which Remote Observation effects can be limited, blocked or shielded. Such questions are essential to the development of a truly progressive research program (Lakatos, 1978). This work, in the context of previous research by independent researchers, has significant implications for our understanding of human communication processes and for a reevaluation of a worldview in which humans are seen as isolated beings. Furthermore, the results suggest the need for a broader approach to human consciousness than that held by the conventional, reductionistic, scientific paradigm (Harman, 1991). Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP%fi-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001 -1 REFERENCES Benor, Daniel. 1990 (September). Survey of Spiritual Healing Research, Complementary Medical Research, 4 (1): 9-33. Braud, W. and Schlitz, M. 1989. A Methodology for the Objective Study of Transpersonal Imagery, Journal of Scientific Exploration, 3: 43-63. Braud, W. and Schlitz, M. 1992. Consciousness Interactions with Remote Biological Systems: Anomalous Intentionality Effects. Subtle Energies, 2:1-46. Braud, W., Shafer, D., and Andrews, S. 1990. Electrodermal correlates of remote attention: Autonomic reactions to an unseen gaze. Paper presented to the 33rd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association, Chevy Chase, Maryland. Braud, W., Shafer, D., and Andrews, S. 1992. Further studies of autonomic AW detection of remote staring: Replications, new control procedures, and personality correlates. Paper presented to the 35th Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association (Las Vegas, Nevada). to Coover, J.E. 1913. The feeling of being stared at. American Journal of Psychology, 24: 57-575. Costa, P.T. and McRae, R. 1985. The NEO Personality Inventory Manual. Psychological Assessment Resources, Inc. Dossey, Larry. 1993. Healing Words. The Power of Prayer and the Practice of Medicine. San Francisco: Harper. Harman, Willis. 1991. A Re-examination of the Metaphysical Foundations of Modem Science. Sausalito: Institute of Noetic Sciences. Lakatos, 1. 1978. The Methodology of Scientific Research Programs. Cambridge: Cambridge University. May, E., Radin, D., Hubbard, S., Humphrey, B., and Utts, J. 1986. Psi Experiments with Random Number Generators: An Informational Model. Research in Parapsychology, 1985. Scarecrow Press. May, Edwin and Vilenskaya, Larissa. 1994. Some Aspects of Parapsychological Research in the Former Soviet Union. Subtle Energies, 3: 1-24. Peterson, D.M. 1978. Through the looking-glass: An investigation of the faculty of extra-sensory detection of being stared at. Unpublished M.A. thesis, University of Edinburgh, Scotland. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RD096-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08107: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Schlitz, Marilyn. 1983. The Potential Application of'Psi in Healing. Research in Parapsychology, 1982. Edited by W. Roll, J. Beloff, and R. White. Metuchen, N.J.: Scarecrow, 266-268. Schlitz, Marilyn. 1994. Psychokinesis on Biological Systems. Fact Sheet. Society for Psychical Research. London. Schlitz, Marilyn and Stephen Braud. 1986. Reiki Plus Natural Healing: An dw Ethnographic and Experimental Study. Psi Research, 4: 39-49. Sheldrake, Rupert. 1994. The Seven Experiments that Could Change the World. London: Fourth Estate. Solfvin, Jerry. 1984. Mental Healing in Stanley Krippner, ed., Advances in Parapsychology, Volume 4. Jefferson, N.C.: McFarland and Company. Thalborne, M. and Evans, L. 1992. Attitudes and beliefs about, and reactions to, staring and being stared at. Journal of the Societyfor Psychical Research, 58: 380-385. Titchener, E.B. 1898. The feeling of being stared at. Science, 8: 895-897. Watson, D. and Friend, R. 1969. Measurement of social-evaluative anxiety. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 33: 448-457. Utts, Jessica. n.d. personal communication. Williams, L. 1983. h4inimal cue perception of the regard of others. The feeling of being stared at. Paper presented to the 10th Annual Conference of the Southeastern Regional Parapsychological Association, West Georgia College, Carrollton, GA. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDPit-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 law mw . ~5- h ~~qf r~=, Cognitive Sciences LaboratorY Sender 6.2 m 12.2 M 2.0 M ReceiV4, 2.0 m computer Figure 1: Floor Plan for Remote Observation Experiment Observee-Observer Distance = 13.7 m. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDF126-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 .04 .035 .03 .025 .02 .015 1 E-2 sE-3 0 -5E-3 Cell M F Figure 2: Interaction line plot for gender pairings (opposite sex and same sex) and skin conductance activity mow Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP'96-00787ROO0300270001-1 F Approved For Release 2900/QW07 : FRJ5%W87ROO0300270001 -1 Is_ F OR Phenomenological Research and nalyFIA-p APPENDIX B Target and Sender Dependencies In Anomalous Cognition Experiments Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 31 CPYRGHT T8rg&jK8Whj_~f B60MRaW08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO030 W1 4d Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition Experiments by 40 Nevin D. Lantz, Ph.D Wanda L. W. Luke and Edwin C. May, Ph.D. Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Menlo Park, CA Abstract 4a Aw The ganzfeld experiments as summarized by Bem and Honorton (1994) suggest that using dynamic tar- gets produces stronger results than using static ones. Bern and Honorton, however, only analyzed ganz- feld studies that included the use of a sender. Since it is known that a sender is not a necessary require- ment in forced-choice trials (Honorton, 1975), we designed and carried out a study to see if a sender is required in non-ganzfeld, free-response trials. In the first of two experiments, five experienced receiv- ers participated in 40 trials each, 10 in each condition of a 2 x 2 design to explore sender and target type. We observed significant effects for static targets (i.e., exact sum-of-rank probability of p :5 0.0073, ef- fect size = 0.248, n=100), chance results for dynamic targets (i.e.,p :!:,, 0.500, effect size = 0.000, n = 100), and no interaction effects between sender and target-type conditions. One receiver slightly fa- vored the no sender condition (F(1,36) = 4.43, p !::: 0.04), while another slightly favored static targets (F(1, 36) = 5.47, p :!~, 0. 04). We speculate that these surprising results (i.e., favoring static over dynamic targets) arose, in part, because of the difference between a topically unbounded dynamic target pool and a topically restrictive static pool. In a second experiment, we redesigned the dynamic pool to match more closely the properties of the static pool. Four of the receivers from the first study participated in at least 20 trials each, 10 in each target-type condition. No senders were used throughout this experiment. We observed a significant increase in anomalous cognition for the new dynamic targets (X2 = 9.94Z df = 1, p:5 1.6 x 10-), and an increase in anomalous cognition for the static targets (X2 = 3.158, df = L p < 0. 075). We conclude that a sender is not a necessary requirement for free-response anomalous cogni- tion. A rank-order analysis showed no target-type dependencies in the second study (X2 = 0, df = 1, p:5 0.5), but a rating analysis revealed some difference favoring dynamic targets (t = 1.3Z df = 68, p 0.096) for the significant receivers. Based on an analysis by May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b), we believe a fundamental argument suggests that in free-response anomalous cognition experiments, dy- namic targets should be better than static ones. mpprovea ror Keiease 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 TarghW8VAj&jrft4Fj5%M~~/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700M.* MarCh 1994 ow 00 WO am Introduction The ganzfeld database has received considerable attention since Bern and Honorton's (1994) publica- tion. They report a significant difference between static and dynamic targets, although they do not re- port significant hitting with static targets! None of the 355 ganzfeld trials analyzed by Bern and Honor- ton were done in a clairvoyant mode-all of these trials used senders. These data inspired two questions: (1) Is a sender a necessary or sufficient participant in the process? (2) Is target type dependency real? The answer to the first question is settled for forced-choice. Clairvoyant ESP card studies (Honorton, 1975) show significant hitting-senders are not necessary. But what is the situation for free-response? As part of a cooperative effort between Psychophysical Research Laboratories and the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory, we asked Honorton to conduct a meta-analysis of the ganzfeld database to deter- mine the answer (Honorton, 1992). In that review, Honorton examined the ganzfeld studies that were published in the English-language parapsychology literature between 1974 and 1991. Besides pub- lished reports, the meta-analysis also included doctoral theses and abstracts of otherwise unpublished studies. Honorton found that only 12 of 73 studies reported not using a sender, and their combined results did not reach statistical significance (Z = 1.31, p :5 aO95). The difference was in favor of the sender protocol (4-ff = 1.49, p < a 137). We agree with Honorton's criticism that the studies do not attempt a differential comparison between sender and no sender. As a result, none of the studies were blind to the sender condition. In parallel to the experiments we report here, we asked Honorton to design and conduct such a study. Dr. Robert Morris and the research group in the Psychology department at the University of Edinburgh have taken over that task. This paper reports on two non-ganzfeld experiments that we conducted in 1992 and 1993 to address sender and the target dependencies. The 1992 Experiment We used a 2 x 2 design to study the effects of sender vs no sender and static vs dynamic target type, on the quality of anomalous cognition (A Qt. The details of the design, results, and conclusions from the study are described in this section. It maybe that this difference will vanish when other factors are accounted for. In private communication with Professor Jessica Utts, she reports that she did not find a significant difference between target condition when receivers brought their own sender. t 'Me Cognitive Sciences Laboratory has adopted the term anomalous mentalphenomena instead of the more widely knownpsi. Ukewise, we use the terms anomalous cognition a nd anomalous perturbation for ESP and PK, respectively. We h ave done so because we believe that thew terms are more naturally descriptive of the observabies and are neutral in that they do not imply mechanisms. These new tcrms will be wed throughout this paper. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 2 gSdjjOrr&Vjft8Sr?aqq/08/07: CIA-RDID96-00787ROO03002706012P March 1994 Targe=W n CPYRGHT Target-pool Selection The static targets were 50 of the 100 National Geogniphic magazine photographs that have been used in our laboratory for many years. By design these targets had the following characteristics: ~ 71bpic homogeneity. T'he photographs contained outdoors scenes of settlements (e.g., villages, towns, cities, etc.), water (e.g., coasts, rivers and streams, waterfalls, etc.), and topographical features (e.g., mountains, hills, desserts, etc.). ~ Size homogeneity. Target elements are all roughly the same size. That is, there are no size surprises such as an ant in one photograph and the moon in another. ~ Affectivity Homogeneity. As much as possible, the targets include only material which invokes neutral affectivity. This set was divided into 10 sets of five photographs that were determined to be visually dissimilar by a fuzzy set analysis (May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and Mask, 1990) and fine-tuned by inspection. For the dynamic targets, we digitized and compressed 30 video clips from a variety of popular movies or documentaries. With the exception of cartoons and sexually-oriented material, the clips contained nearly anything. Examples included an indoor motor bike race and a slow panoramic scan of the statues on Easter island. The overall intent of these dynamic targets was to control for cognitive surprise, to provide target ele- ments that are easily sketched, and to mimic the content of the successful ganzfe)d dynamic targets. Receiver, Sender, and Monitor Selection OW We chose five experienced receivers that had produced significant A C effect sizes in previous investiga- tions. The sender for all of the trials was the principal investigator (PI), located in Lititz, Pennsylvania. All trials were unmonitored. so Protocol Each of the five receivers contributed 10 trials in each of the conditions shown in Table 1. Mthough 10 trials seems too few for such a study, we computed that the statistical power within a cell was 80%, given the "known" historical effect sizes of approximately 0.8 for these receivers. Tible 1. Experiment Conditions Target Sender 7Pfpe Static Yes Static No Dynamic Yes Dynamic No Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 3 Targd4V"Sv*ffarffVAwiftMG~/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270dol2p March 1994 Target Preparation Nor to beginning the study, an experiment coordinator randomly generated a unique, counterbal- affiiia3kTDf 20 static and 20 dynamic targets for each of the five receivers.* Within each target type, a counter-balanced set of sender/no sender conditions was also generated. A copy of each target (i.e., either a color photograph or a short clip on video tape) was placed in an envelope and a trial number, 1-40, was written on the outside. Those envelopes containing targets from the no-sender condition were sealed and those for the sender condition remained unsealed. Each set of 40 targets were pack- aged separately and shipped to the PI. Trial Schedule __ TWo of the five receivers resided in California, and the others resided in Kansas, New York and Virginia. The experiment was conducted over a five-month period. Individual schedules were developed so as to cause as little inconvenience to the receiver's daily routine as possible. Not more than one trial per day or three trials per week were conducted. Session Sequence For each trial and for each receiver: (1) The PI selected the appropriately numbered envelope from the box of targets for the receiver. (2) In the sender condition, he looked at the selected target for 15 minutes and attempted to "trans- mit" it to the intended receiver during a prearranged trial period. (3) In the no-sender condition for the static targets, he placed the sealed envelope on his uncluttered desk for the 15 minute trial period. (4) In the no-sender condition for the dynamic targets, he played the video repeatedly for 15 minutes without sound, and with the TV monitorlocated in an unoccupied room. (5) At the conclusion of the 15-minute trial period, and after the receipt of the receiver's response by FAX, he sent a copy of the target material (i.e., either a photograph or video tape) to the receiver by mail. During each trial: (1) At the prearranged time, the receiver withdrew to a quiet room in his or her home and sat at a desk. (2) For a period lasting up to 15 minutes, the receiver wrote and drew his or her impressions of the intended target material. (3) At the end of the trial, she/he sent a copy of the response to the PI by FAX machine. (4) By return mail, she/he obtained a copy of the target as feedback for the trial. The target copy and original response were subsequently sent to the experiment coordinator in Menlo Park, California. We did not provide specific instructions beyond logistical information to the receivers, because they were all experienced at this type of task. They were, however, knowledgeable about the general charac- teristics of the two target pools. When the experiment coordinator received the receiver's response, all identifying information (i.e. name, date, and time of trial) was removed. Periodically during the course of the experiment, the ex- All randontizationsweredonewith astandardoDmputer algorithm, which is based on a shift-register algorithm by Kendell and has been shown to meet the general criteria for "randomness" (Lewis, 1975). Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 4 moo Targ0tM"G"ftrW"8derRM/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787R000300270dM2P March 1994 perinient coordinator provided an analyst, who was blind to the target choice, with a set of responses and associated target packs for analysis. md"Ts We conducted two different analyses in this study: (1) Our standard I-of-5 rank-order technique to construct effect sizes and p-values. (2) An analysis of variance (ANOVA) to address the 2 x 2 questions. Rank-Order For each trial, there was a single response and its associated target pack (i.e., either static or dynamic). An analyst, who was blind to the condition and target for the trial, was asked to rank-order five targets (i.e., the intended target and four decoys) within the given pack. This was a forced ranking, so regard- less of the quality of match between the response and targets, he/she had to assign a first place match, a second place match, and so on for each of the five targets. The output from this part of the analysis was a rank-order number (i.e., one to five, one corresponding to a first place match) for the correct target. For each receiver, target type, and condition, there were 10 such rank-order numbers which constituted a block of data. A rank-order effect size was computed for a block as: ITO - .71, j N2_1 1f 1 x where 1~-j is the average rank for target type i and sender condition j, and 170 is the expected average rank, which for this 'study is equal to three for all cases. N is the number of possible ranks and is equal to five throughout this study. The effect size reduces to: 3 - Kj. j T2 Analysis of Variance A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) was computed for each receiver. The two primary variables were target type and sender1condition (i.e., ANOVA main effects). Each of these variables possessed the two states shown in Table 1 above. Hypotheses The overall null hypothesis was that eq will not be significantly different from zero. Using an F-test, we hypothesized that the quality of AC does not depend upon a sender regardless of target type. Similarly, we used an F-test to test the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon target type, regardless of the sender condition. The ANOVA also tests for potential interactions between the target and sender conditions. For exam- ple, it might be that a sender is required for dynamic targets and not for static ones. We did not hypothe- size with regard to interactions. Approved Fbr Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 5 TarA"MOA*#i9;QNPV208b"8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787RO0030027000Y~20 March 1994 Effect Size Results FRIE4dicivers completed 40 trials each. 1kble 2 shows the effect sizes computed for the 10 trials in each cell. The underlined effect sizes indicate 1-tailed significant results. Receiver 009 showed significant evidence for AC in the static target, no-sender condition (p :!:'~j 0. 02); receiver 372 in the static target, sender condition; and receiver 518 in the static target, no-sender condition (p:!!:',, 0.05). Combined,the static, no-sender condition was significant (p < 0.02) Table 2. Effect Sizes ReceiverSender No SenderSender No Sender Static Static Dynamic Dynamic 009 -0.071 0,M -0.141 0.141 131 -0.071 -0.071 0.212 0.495 372 0.141 -0.354 -0.283 389 0.141 0.212 0.000 0.000 518 -0.088 0,= -0.495 0.283 Tbtals QM -0.028 0.028 ANOVA Results Table 3 shows the results of an ANOVA on these data. Since there were 10 trials within each cell, the degrees of freedom are the same for all receivers and, therefore, are only shown in the column headings. TWo receivers show significant main effects. Receiver 372 showed a tendency to favor static over dy- namic targets (i.e.p < 0. 03), and receiver 518 showed a tendency to favor no sender conditions (Le.,p:5 0.04). Notice the underlined values in Thble 3-for these receivers the ANOVA hypothesis that the data were drawn from the same distribution is rejected, and there were no significant interactions between target type and sender condition. Thble 3. ANOVA Results io R Sender Tkrget Interaction i Condition Type ver F(1,36)P-ValueF(1,36)P-ValueF(1,36)P-Value ece 009 0.38 0.54 0.68 0.42 2.08 0.16 131 0.18 0.67 1.66 0.21 0.18 0.67 372 1.01 0.32 5.47 QM 0.61 0.44 389 0.01 0.91 0.33 0.57 0.01 0.91 d 518 4.43 -0.04 0.97 0.33 0.06 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 6 No Tar~*RrW%tffiftrFtWpaekeleWSJ08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700(Ml-120 March 1994 CPYRGHT mbining results across receivers, the ANOVA showed no significant main effect for the sender condi- i. The main effect for target type, while not significant, was strongly in favor of the static targets 1, 196) = z gi, p < a og). We found no significant interactions for the combined data (F(1, 196) p < 0.89). MO OW dw do ISO .00 r there were no significant interactions, we combined the data for static targets regardless of the ler condition (i.e., 100 trials). Ile sum-of-ranks was 265 (i.e., exact sum-of-rank probability ofp:!!~ 7, effect size = 0.248). The total sum-of-ranks for the dynamic targets was 300 (Le.,p:!!:'~ 0.50, effect = 0.000). From these data, we concluded that static targets may be better than dynamic targets. Discussion and -Hypothesis Formulation Static targets being better than dynamic ones is surprising not only because it fails to support the ganz- feld result, but also because it actually suggests the opposite. There are a number of possible contribut- ing factors for this outcome. They include statistical artifacts, idiosyncrasies of our receivers compared to the ganzfeld participants, and procedural differences. Another possibility may be that rank-order statistics were used, as they were in the ganzfeld. We find absolute measures of AC are better than relative measures in process-oriented research, and since the target-type inference was based on rela- tive measures, perhaps this accounts for some of the result. Please see an expanded discussion of this point in the 1993 experiment below. We propose, however, a different explanation: the fundamental differences between the target pools in this experiment are, in themselves, a source of noise and confound the interpretation. To understand this noise source, we must first assume that AC data are weak and difficult to recognize. Thrget pools which contain a large number of differentiable cognitive elements, in conjunction with re- ceivers who believe that this is the case, are a source of noise. Receivers are encouraged to report any imagined impressions, since those impressions might be part of the target. SinceAC is assumed to be weak, most of what is generated is more from the receivees imagination than from the signal. This noise is generated from an active imagination coupled with an agreement not to edit the internal experience. A full description of these points can be found in May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994a). The receivers in our experiments have learned the natural limitations of our usual National Geographic target pool by experience and by instruction. They have become skilled at internal editing and do not report impressions that they know are absent from the overall target pool, thus there is less incorrect material in their responses. We conclude, therefore, that in this experiment, receivers were unable to produce significant evidence of AC with dynamic targets. They produced, what is for us, significant reduced functioning with static targets. We speculated that this drop of functioning in both target conditions arose because the proto- col would not allow the receivers to edit their internal experience. They were told that the dynamic targets could be virtually anything, and since they were blind to the static-vs-dynamic target condition, they were unable to edit their imaginations, even for the static targets. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 7 Ta0WjpWtff_~P,DW#~AjW"Q8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700OV-11 20 March 1994 CPYRGHT 40 aw 00 ow UN Imi ON to Based on this speculation, we developed the following hypotheses for our replication study in 1993: (1) A significant increase of AC will be observed for dynamic targets if the dynamic pool is designed with a similar set of topics that match the static pool from the 1992 study. (2) An increase ofACwill be observed for static targets because the receivers will be able to edit their internal experience. IThe 1993 Experiment In this experiment, we included a static vs dynamic target condition to replicate the findings from the ganzfeld, but dropped the sender condition, since it appeared not to influence the results of our 1992 investigation. All trials were conducted with a monitor but without a sender. Target Pools We redesigned both the static and dynamic targets with the constraint that they all must conform to the topic, size, and affectivity homogeneity of the original static targets. We identified a large number of videos that could be edited to produce 50 National Geographic-like segments. A single frame from with- in each video clip, which was characteristic of the entire clip, acted as its static target pool equivalent. Thus, we improved the target pools from our 1992 experiment in two ways: (1) The new dynamic pool possessed a reduced number of differerentiable cognitive elements compared with the dynamic pool we used in 1992. (2) The content of the dynamic and static pools were nearly identical, by design. During the experiment, the targets were chosen randomly and were counter-balanced with regard to static and dynamic target types, within receivers. All statictrames were digitized (Le., 640x480 pixels) for 24 bits of color information, compressed by JPEG, and stored on-line for feedback and display purposes. The dynamic targets were digitized at near real-time rate and stored on three magneto-optical read/write diskettes. The "video" clips could then be displayed on our full-color, Sun Microsystems computer monitor in real-time. Receiver, Monitor, and Sender Selection For the new experiment, we chose four of the five experienced receivers who had participated in our 1992 study. All trials were conducted without a sender and were monitored by the PI, who was blind to target type and content for each trial. Protocol Three receivers contributed 10 trials in each of the two target conditions, and a fourth (i.e., receiver 372) contributed 15 trials in each condition. Trial Schedule The experiment was conducted over a seven-month period, and all trials were conducted at our labora- tory in Menlo Park. One of the four receivers (i.e., Receiver 009) lives locally, but the others traveled to our facility for one-week visits. All viewers participated in no more than one trial per day. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-0078~R000300270001-1 8 TargWpndiSdrRtgrOMpeadeRG9M8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700wl?O March 1994 CPYRGHT Sequence )re thesessionbepn, and after the receiver and monitorwere sequesteredin ourAC laboratory, an ;tant, who was otherwise not involved in the experiment, randomly generated a target in accordance the target selection criteria (i.e., counter-balanced for type within receivers and randomly within the session: so to so aw The monitor provided the following tasking statement to the receiver: "There is a scene that needs a description. Access to that scene is through the word target." For a period lasting no longer than 15 minutes, the receiver wrote and drew his or her impressions of the intended target material, with the monitor asking for clarification on specific response elements. When the monitor and receiver agreed that the data was complete, the monitor halted the session, copied the response material, and secured the original. The monitor provided computer-based feedback of the intended target material and emphasized the points of agreement between the response and target. again emphasize that for each trial the monitor and receiver were blind to the target selection. four receivers participated in a total of 20 trials with this design. At no time during these trials was target material displayed during theAC session. Instead, the intended target, which existed on a iputer disk, was designated by name only. Only during the feedback phase was the intended target asked receiver 372 to participate in an additional 10 trials that were randomly counter-balanced veen static and dynamic targets. We used an automated version of the above procedure and, during session, the target material was silently displayed on a computer monitor in another room. The ion protocol was identical to the one above except for the automatic target generation and display. r these 10 trials, the monitor initiated an automatic computer program after receiver 372 had entered ~AC laboratory. This program randomly counter-balanced the target type and selected a single tar- for the session. Regardless of the type, the program required that a specific optical disk, unlabeled h regard to content, be mounted and the dynamic version of the selected target was then copied to an r.mal hard disk. All static equivalent targets were already resident on the internal hard disk. Once ~ transfer was complete, the monitor was instructed to initiate the trial. For the next 60 seconds, the nputer screen remained blank, thus allowing the monitor sufficient time to enter the adjacent A C oratory and remain blind to the target choice. At the end of the the 60 seconds, the computer pro- ~ni began to continuously display the target regardless of type. The computer program kept track of the specific details that were used later during the analysis phase. alysis conducted two different analyses in this experiment: 1) Our standard 1-of-5 rank-order technique to construct effect sizes and p-values. A blind rating from a predetermined rating scale. rank-order procedure was similar to the one we used in our 1992 experiment. The sole difference how and when the decoy targets were chosen. In our earlier investigation, the decoys were prede- Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 9 CPYRGHT TarJpP*nd(SbfideiO6pwW~ftftW8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700OVI120 March 1994 termined using ft=y set analysis and fine tuning. Thus, they existed prior to the start of the experiment. In this study, the decoys were chosen by computer at the time of analysis, and did not exist during the actual trials. Prior to the start of this experiment, we divided our 50 targets into 10 sets of five targets each. Differing from our earlier approaches, the targets within each pack were as similar as possible. We were able to identify five broadly different topic categories (e.g., cities near water, ruins, etc.), and we created two different packs of five targets for each specific category. We made all target pack decisions based on our experience and subjective assessment. Decoys were chosen by the computer at analysis time. First, the computer selected the topic set of five packets from which the actual target was chosen. Then, the computer randomly selected one target from each of the remaining four target packs for the decoys. Blind Rating Scale Rank-order analysis does not usually indicate the absolute quality of the AC. For example, a response that is a near-perfect description of the target receives a rank of one. But a response which is barely matchable to the target may also receive a rank of one. Table 4 shows the rating scale that we used to perform a blind assessment of the quality of the A C responses, regardless of their rank. Even though ranks correlated with ratings (Spearman's g = -0.4 df = 78), we feel that rating scales like this poten- tially reduce an additional source of variance in correlational or comparative studies. To apply this subjective scale to anA C trial, an analyst begins with a score of seven and determines if the description for that score is correct. If not, then the analyst tries a score of six and so on. In this way the scale is traversed from seven to zero until the score-description seems reasonable for the trial. Table 4. 0-7 Point Assessment Scale 00i go MW ScoreDescription Excellent correspondence, including good analytical 7 detail, with essentially no incorrect information 6 Good correspondence with good analytical information and relatively little incorrect information. 5 Good correspondence with unambiguous unique matchable elements, but some incorrect information. 4 Good correspondence with several matchable elements intermixed with incorrect information. Mixture of correct and incorrect elements, but enough 3 of the former to indicate receiver has made contact with the site. 2 Some correct elements, but not sufficient to suggest results beyond chance expectation. 1 Little correspondence. 0 No correspondence. Figures 1 through 3 (pages 12 through 14), illustrate the application of this scale and show that the quali- Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 10 CPYRGHT TarAlpf) r *%Fnde§4MVwWG00lJW8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO030027000YI120 March 1994 10i dw we one in a blind analysis from our 1992 study. T'he response to the waterfall target in Figure 1 included a number of pages of material about a city and other man-made elements. In all of our analyses, we strict- ly adhered to the concept that any material a receiver deletes from the the response prior to feedback is not counted in the analysis. As the receiver deleted the descriptions of man-made elements during the trial, the response in Figure 1 is considered as complete. This target-response pair received a score of seven. Figures 2 and 3 show examples of scores of four and one, respectively. In both cases, these re- sponses were not edited by the receiver. Hypotheses The overall null hypothesis was that the effect sizes will not be significantly different from zero. We used an X2 to test the hypothesis that the quality of A C, as measured by rank-order, does not depend upon targettype. Data Analysis and Results The analysis for this study was partially automated. All the trial information was stored in a computer file and could be read only by the analysis program to guard against inadvertent display. An analyst initiated the program and selected which receiver to analyze. Since the program kept track of the re- sults, it instructed the analyst which response to examine for the current trial. If the target for that trial was dynamic, the program instructed the analyst to insert enough disks, which were unlabeled with re- gard to content, so that the target and four decoys could be copied to the computer hard disk. If the trial target was static, this step was unnecessary, as the static targets were already present on the hard disk. A randomized order of the decoys and the target were presented in tabular form. A mouse click on the target name would launch either the dynamic or static display of the selected target. By this method, an analyst could review the entire target pack and rank-order them as usual. The ranks were entered into an appropriate place on the computer form. The ratings were done at the same time and entered into the form. Only after the completion of the analysis for this single trial was the data was locked into a file. The analyst could then select feedback as to the correct answer. The results for individual receivers were maintained in separate files. 11ree receivers participated in 10 trials for each target type and a fourth, 372, participated in 15 trials per target type. Tables 5 shows the average rank, the effect size and its associated p-value for the static target condition. We see that the combined data is significant and three of the four receivers produced independently significant results. Thble 5. Results for Static Targets Receiver ES p-value 9 2.20 0.565 0.037 372 1.87 0.801 9.7 x 10-4 389 3.10 -0.071 0.589 518 1.90 0.778 7.2 x 10-3 lbtals 2.22 0-550 1.1 X 10-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Tar6"~jj%hfi~rjft*jWffigVAW8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700044120 March 1994 CPYRGHT TARGET m r6m water rowing 1) City. buildings mwns to be a big Imp torn what I arn feefing abma the tWgeL III nmMuL 2)Troubledbycitylseling. Cou be#Wthe watersprayir OF uprights we nsairal rather #= nm nmde. in which ciase #0 city interpretation is incorrect and I am feefing MESA. I'l theaIr check verficals. vertical dmp 3) DELETE Lights, structum, struct ~y duds. budding, and c*y. We gm a welerIall, turbulence Figure 1. Target and response with a rating of 7. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 12 TarfieRffidlg,Vd*rFNp~ii~"QIP8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO030027000^120 March 1994 CPYRGHT cWW long smm box 2 dw 00 d=Aar W"m in tont, like M~Mft BtWM in a gWden long hallow Wbe, ft cmahing surf an a 3 beach - *Hawai Pipellnew mw dark Interior Figure 2. Target and response with a rating of 4. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 13 EW TarO"jVjj%bjj"rFbj"M"W8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700001120 March 1994 lei wifly baft - aimcm -Nke. Cottony Wffy apkYtdhe& Movernam - whb:dng I keep wwftg to 3" spednc* ftmvh these Cottony Puft faSL OMP. - air. nGSL A long walkway & ffwW gwd~m "d lending 3WP. Flat land. Big akplan" Would land here Uke nmaj auftm Has a broken white Una down the center of strip & You we Itadraight an - like you would be aming in for a landing. dw mw Figure 3. Target and response with a rating of 1. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 14 CPYRGHT TargOPWAahHer GWPWXW12OftO8/07: CIA-RDP96-00787RO003002700 _30 March 1994 Aff MW Rank-order We observed a strong increase of AC for the static targets in the 1993 trials as compared to that of the 1992 trials (X2 = 3.158, df = 1, p::!~ aO75). Three of the four receivers had improved results in the 1993 trials as compared to those of 1992. Thus, the second hypothesis (i.e., an increase in AC for static tar- gets) was supported. Table 6 shows the same data for the dynamic targets. Table 6. Results for Dynamic Tirgets, Receiver ES p-value 9 1.70 0.919 1.8 X 10-3 372 1.93 0.754 1.8 X 10-3 389 3.00 0.000 0.500 518 2.40 0.424 0.091 Totals 2.22 0.550 1.1 X 10-4 Using the rank-order statistics above, we saw no difference between static and dynamic targets in this study. The first hypothesis was confirmed: we observed a significant increase of AC with dynamic tar- gets in 1993 from that of 1992 (X2 = 9.942, df = L p < 1.6 x 10-). We then examined the question of static vs dynamic targets with regard to our blind rating system. Fig- ure 4 shows the relative density for the static vs dynamic targets for the three significant receivers only. The mean and standard deviation for the static and dynamic targets was 3.31±1.73 and 3.91±206, re- spectively (t = 1.3Z df = 68, p :5 a 096). Including all receivers the means and standard deviations were 3.22±187 and 3.51 ±Z 06, respectively (t 0. 690, df 88, p :5 a 246). 0.25 ............... 0.20 .......... Al 0.15 2 Blind Rating Score 0 - > 7 Figure 4. Static (dotted) vs Dynamic Ratings for Three Significant Receivers Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 is Now TaP"N%4&qW#RJD~R9Gd8W0B107: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001wl 20 March 1994 so CPYRGHT is difficult to interpret this analysi& If we claim that dynamic targets should be more readily sensed by C, then we are entitled to examine only the significant recei vers. While not overtly so, the trend sup- )rts that assertion. Ratings, however, can be biased because of content. We could argue that this dif- rence is simply due to that fact that there is more content in the dynamic targets than in the static ones. here are two arguments against this assertion, however. In this experiment, the content of the dynam- targets was carefully chosen to match that of the static targets. In addition, our rating scale is sensitive both incorrect and correct information. It seems unlikely, therefore, that the increase in scoring can accounted for by content bias. see little evidence for a target type dependency when we include all receivers, or when we examine overall difference, using the rank-order data (XI = 0, df = 1, p < 0.5). eneral Discussion and Conclusions our first experiment, we found that AC statistics with static targets were better than with dynamic ~es. We hypothesized that this difference resulted from a combination of the target pool design and r. receivers' expectations. Following this idea, May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994a) define target o1 bandwidth as the number of differentiable cognitive elements in a target pool. 71ey suggest that a ,-get pool, such as our original static pool, which contains enough elements to prevent guessing, while the same time allowing for some internal editing of receivers' imagination, is optimal with regard to reduction of noise. In the first experiment, the dynamic target pool did not fit this ideal. When we a better dynamic pool for the second experiment, we observed commensurate increases in effect sizes. May, Spottiswoode, and James suggest that their target pool bandwidth concept is test- and it is our hope that these tests will be conducted in the near future. the second experiment, even after correcting possible defects in our target pool design, we were un- le to observe a significant target type dependency. On the other hand, the direction for a replication clear. May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994b) suggest that they have identified an intrinsic. target operty that correlates with the quality ofAC (i.e., gradient of Shannon's entropy~ If this is true, then tre might be a fundamental argument that implies that dynamic targets should be better than static rgets, all else being equal. If a dynamic and static target pool were constructed on the basis of the .-gest possible gradients of Shannon's entropy, then we would expect a significant improvement of the C effect size and result that strongly favors the dynamic targets. inally, we comment upon the sender condition. Our results show, as in forced-choiceAC, that a sender not a requirement. It is reasonable to expect that if the sender condition is not blind, then some de- -ndencies might be observed. Dr. Robert Morris and the research group of the Psychology depart- ent at the University of Edinburgh are currently conducting a study to answer the necessary and/or requirement of a sender. ow Approved For Release 2000108107 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 16 ow TaftrPoOdAdWOROkWWA 08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700OV-~ 20 March 1994 References Bern, D. J. and Honorton, C. (1994). Does psi exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous process of information transfer. Psychological Bulletin. 115, No. 1, 4-18. Honorton, C. (1975). Error Some Place! Joumal of Communication, 103-116. Honorton, C. (1992). In May, E. C., Luke, W L. W, and Lantz, N. D. (1992). "Phenomenalogical Research and Analysis." Science Applications International Corporation, the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Final Report: 6.2 and 6.3. Lewis, T G. (1975). Distribution Sampling for Computer Simulation. Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B. S., Luke, W L W, FrivoK T J., and aask, V V (1990). Advances in remote-viewing analysis. Joumal of ParapsycholoV, 54, 193-228. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L (1994a). Managing the target pool bandwidth: Noise reduction for anomalous cognition experiments. Submitted for publication in the Joumal of Parapsycholog. Eli May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L. (1994b). Shannon entropy as an intrinsic target property: Toward a reductionist model of anomalous cognition.. Submitted for publication in the Joumal of ParapsycholoV. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 17 yk%-j -SRZA7ROO0300270001 -1 c%08'%W%~, F al QR #Rg68XpAgjV 1p '9~Sft APPENDIX C Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth: Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 32 OW CPYRGHT am oft go am aw Managing the Target Pool Bandwidth: Noise Reduction for Anomalous Cognition Experiments by Edwin C. May, Ph.D S. James P. Spottiswoode (Consultant) and Christine L James Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Menlo Park, CA Abstract Lantz, Luke, and May (1994) reported in the first of two studies that experienced receivers from the Cognitive Sciences Laboratory produced significant evidence for anomalous cognition (AC) of static targets, but showed little evidence forAC of dynamic targets. Tlis result was surprising-it was directly opposite to the results that were derived from the ganzfeld database (Bem and Honorton, 1994). In Lantz, Luke, and May's experiment, the topics of the dynamic targets were virtually unlimited, whereas the topics for the static targets were constrained in content, size of cognitive elements, and range of affect. In a second experiment, Lantz, Luke, and May redesigned the target pools to correct this unbal- ance and observed significant improvement of A C functioning. We incorporate these findings into a definition of target pool bandwidth and propose that the proper selection of bandwidth will lead to a reduction of incorrect information in free-response A C. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYR Mp"9b0d*F1brp&ftab%uvbKWft7: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700~i-h,23 March 1994 dw Ulm Introduction Effect sizes from forced-choice experiments are much lower than those from free-response studies. For example, in precognition (Honorton and Ferrari, 1999) and real-time (Honorton, 1975) forced-choice experiments, the effect size (i.e., ZlVn-) is 0.02, while in the free-response ganzfeld (Bem and Honor- ton, 1994), the effect size is 0.159. Even if we consider the ganzfeld response as a "forced-choice" among four alternatives, the x effect size, which converts 1-in-n into an effective binary choice hitting rate (Rosenthal and Rubin, 1989 and Rosenthal, 1991), is 0.5123±0.0004 for card guessing and 0-5854±0.0287 for the ganzfeld (t = 46.Z df - 2 X 106 p - 0). Ile large t-score is probably due to the large number of forced-choice trials (i.e., 2 x 106). Considering that the mean of the forced-choice ef- fect size is 2.5a smaller than that of the ganzfeld, however, there is clearly a meaningful difference. One potential source of noise in forced-choice experiments, particularly when trial-by-trial feedback is giv- en, is memory of the previous trial and knowledge of the complete set of possibilities. For example, suppose a receiver (i.e., participant, subject) is asked to guess if a particular card from a normal deck of playing cards is red or black. Suppose further that there is some putative information coming either from the card or from the mind of a sender, and that the receiver is a "good" imager (i.e., can easily picture a brilliant image of a playing card in her/his mind). The receivers task, then, can be reduced to simple signal detection. Yet, if anomalous copition (AC)* is not a robust information transfer mecha- nism, and it appears that it is not, the "signal" is easily lost among the vibrant internal imagery from the memory of all alternative playing cards. The resulting effect sizes, therefore, are reduced. The ganzfeld itself was developed as a somatic-sensory noise reduction procedure (Honorton and Harper, 1974). Honorton argued that by placing a receiver in a sensory-reduced environment, her/his reactions to the environment would be sharply reduced, encouraging a commensurate reduction of noise. Based upon the results of our current work, we argue that a major contributor of noise in any free-response study is cognitive and arises, in part, because of the target pool design. One result from the ganzfeld experiments suggests that dynamic targets produce stronger results than static targets (Bem and Honorton, 1994). Lantz, Luke, and May (1994) attempted to replicate this find- ing in two lengthy experiments in 1992 and 1993. ne first of these explored, in a 2 x 2 design, the rela- tionship of sender vs no-sender and static vs dynamic target type on the quality of the AC. Since Lantz, Luke, and May reported no significant effects or interactions due to the sender condition, we will ignore that aspect of this first experiment. In the second experiment, they conducted all trials without a sender and changed the characteristics of the target pool. nis paper describes the insights gained from these two studies which led both to the concept of target pool bandwidth, and to a potential way of reducing noise in free-response A C. Summary of the first Anomalous Cognition Experiment - 1992 We begin by summarizing the experiment and pertinent results from a study that was conducted in 1992, the details of which may be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). In the experiment, a static vs dynam- ic target condition was included to replicate the findings from the ganzfeld. 'Me Cognitive Sciences Laboratory hasadopted the term anomaloutmentalphenomena instead of the more widely knownpsi. Likewise, we use the terms anomalous cognidon and anomalouspenwbation for ESP and PK, respectively. We have done so because we believe that these terms are more naturally descriptive of the observables and are neutral in that they do not imply mechartisms.'Mese new terms will be used throughout this paper. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 2 ENV, Mhj March 1994 MaA*VWVWFr~fMft@b%UUbKWb7: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002700 _ 23 4910 CPYRGHT aw aw aw Target Pools - 1992 For the static targets, Lantz, Luke, and May used a subset of 50 of our traditional National Geographic magazine collection of photographs (May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and aask, 1990). These targets had the following characteristics: ~ Topic homogeneity. The photographs contained outdoor scenes of settlements (e.g., villages, towns, cities, etc.), water (e.g., coasts, rivers and streams, waterfalls, etc.), and topography (e.g., mountains, hills, desserts, etc.). ~ Size homogeneity. Target elements are all roughly the same size. That is, there are no size surprises such as an ant in one photograph and the moon in another. ~ Affectivity homogeneity. As much as possible, the targets included materials which invoke neutral affec- tivity. This pool is perhaps better characterized by what it does not contain. There are no people, animals, transportation devices or situations in which one would find these items-and no emotionally arousing pictures. The dynamic targets, on the other hand, followed similar lines to those from the ganzfeld studies. Lantz, Luke, and May digitized and compressed video clips from a variety of popular movies or docu- mentaries. With the exception of cartoons and sexually-oriented material, the clips could contain virtu- ally anything. Examples included an indoor motor bike race and a slow panoramic scan of the statues on Easter island. Almost all of the characteristics of the static target pool were violated. The only common characteristic was thematic homogeneity within any given dynamic clip; across targets there were no restrictions on content. Data Analysis and Results - 1992 For each response, a single analyst conducted a blind ranking of five targets-the intended one and four decoys-in the usual way. The expected mean-chance rank was three. Effect sized were computed by: ES = OV. - IV.) jV2_1 ~ ~12; 1 where N is the number of rank possibilities (i.e., five in our case) and 1~ and X are the expected and observed average ranks, respectively. The p-values were computed from Z = ES x V;~ where n is the number of trials. Each receiver participated in 20 trials for each target type, regardless of sender condition. Table 1 shows the average rank, the effect size, and its associated p-value for the static target condition. We see that the combined data is significant and that two of our most experienced receivers, 9 and 372, produced independently significant results. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 3 CPYRGMan%M~WW I9g&PWGQfla*WW7: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270eft?3 March 1994 Thble 1. Results for Static Targets - 1992 Experiment Receiver ES p-value 9 2.40 0.424 0.034 131 3.10 -0.071 0.653 372 2.40 0.424 0.034 389 2.75 0.177 0.240 518 2.60 0.283 0.119 Totals 2.65 0.247 6.8 x 10- Thble 2 shows the same data for the dynamic target condition. Tible 2. Results for Dynamic Targets - 1992 Experiment Receiver ES p-value 9 3.00 0.000 0.500 131 2.50 0.354 0.057 372 3.40 -0.283 0.897 389 3.00 0.000 0.500 518 3.10 -0.071 0.624 7btals 3.00 0.000 0.500 With the possible exception of receiver 13 1, AC on the dynamic targets failed to show any evidence of functioning. Ile difference between these two target conditions favors the Static targets (X2 = 3.050, df = 1, p < a081). Hypothesis Formulation and Discussion - 1992 Static targets being better than dynamic ones is surprising-not only because it fails to support the ganz- feld result, but also because it suggests the opposite. There are a number of possible contributing fac- tors for this outcome. They include statistical artifacts, idiosyncrasies of our receivers compared to the ganzfeld participants, and procedural differences. Another possibility may be that, as in the ganzfeld, participants used a rank-order technique for judging even though only the first-place matches were used for the statistic. Since absolute measures of AC are better than relative measures in process-ori- ented research, and since the target-type inference was based on relative measures, perhaps this ac- counts for some of the result. A full discussion of these points may be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). We propose a different explanation: a fundamental difference between the experiment's dynamic and static target pools are, in themselves, a source of noise. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 4 CPYRGHT CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270yop ?3 March 1994 no JJN~ OW ow WO The sources of noise in the forced-choice domain are reasonably understood (i.e., memory in conjunc- tion with complete knowledge of the target pool elements). A new insight for us was another potential source of noise in the free-response domain. To understand this noise source, we must first assume that AC data are weak and difficult to recognize. 1hrget pools which contain a large number of diversecogni- tive elements, in conjunction with receivers who believe that this is the case, are a source of noise. Re- ceivers will tend to report any imagined impressions, since those impressions might be part of the target. SinceAC is assumed to be weak, most of the generated impressions are from the receiver's imagination rather than from the target. Furthermore, it follows that the noise will increase when these impressions are unable to be internally edited and must be reported. That is, noise is generated not so much from an active imagination, but imagination coupled with an agreement not to edit the internal experience. Editing our internal experience is something we all do in our daily communication: we rarely report to a friend that our mind momentarily wandered during an interesting discussion. Humans appear to have an ability for multi-processing, but we use situational filters to communicate coherently. So, why would we deny this same ability to participants inA C experiments? In Figure 1, we represent schematically the contributions to the noise produced by memory and the noise produced by not editing imagination. Combination Memory Unedited ca Imagination z cc 2 5 Differentiable Cognitive Elements in the Thrget Pool Figure 1. Schematic Representation of Sources of Cognitive Noise As the number of differentiable cognitive elements in a target pool increases from two (for a binary choice) to nearly infinite (for the universe), we propose that there is a trade-off between noise arising from memory and noise arising from unedited imagination. For target pools containing fewer ele- ments, the noise contribution from memory (i.e., the curve labeled "Memory" in Figure 1) exceeds im- pressions arising from edited imagination. Regardless of one's internal fantasies, there is usually a com- plete protocol restriction on allowable responses. The reverse is true for target pools that contain a large number of cognitive elements: the contribution to the noise because of unedited imagination ex- ceeds that arising from memory. In this case, protocols usually suggest that receivers report nearly all internal impressions (e.g., in the ganzfeld protocol), and since there will likely be far more of these im- pressions than there are target elements, the noise is increased. At the same time, since there are a large number of elements, and because it is difficult to remember all possible elements and their factorial Approved For Rele~se 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 5 aw MW WO AW Man6oftVW1Wg4tcRoA&WdW)ft07: CIA-RDP96-00787RO0030027ON61~_43 March 1994 UH I combinations, the contribution to the noise due to memory is reduced. We suggest that our National Geographic magazine target pool represents a good compromise: there are enough differentiable ele- ments to reduce the effects of memory, but few enough to allow reasonable editing of internal experi- ences that arise from imagination. The receivers in our experiments have, over time, learned the natural limitations of the National Geo- graphic target pool by experience and by instruction. They have become skilled at internal editing and do not report impressions that they know are absent from the overall target pool--thus there is less incorrect material in their responses. In Lantz, Luke, and May's 1992 experiment, where the dynamic targets could be virtually anything, the receivers were unable-to produce significant evidence ofAC They also produced, what is for us, signifi- cantly reduced functioning with static targets. We speculate that this drop of functioning in both target conditions arose because the protocol would not allow the receivers to edit their internal experience. Since the dynamic targets could consist of anything, and since the receivers were blind to the static-vs- dynamic target condition, they were unable to edit their imaginations, even for the static targets. To illustrate this point, suppose that half the target pool were ESP cards and the other half were the ganz- feld dynamic targets, but the receivers were blind to the target condition. In any given trial, even though the target is actually the star ESP card, the receiver is inclined to report all internal imagery, whether it be cartoon figures, car races, and/or sex scenes from movies. This increased the incorrect information over what it would be for a simpler target pool Of ESP-cards alone. A strong word of caution is in order. Editing of internal experience because of sensory knowledge of the target pool cannot inflate a differential rank-order statistic. It will, however, bias any rating scale to- ward larger values. This is not a problem if ratings are used in correlational or comparative studies. We define ia?getpool band*i&h as the number of differentiable cognitive elements in the target pool. Forced-choice experiments usually represent small bandwidths, video clips usually represent a large bandwidth, and the National Geographic magazine photographs represent an intermediate bandwidth. At this time, the definition is qualitative, but we will indicate ways in which it can be made more quanti- tative. Nonetheless, the target pool bandwidth concept is testable. The following hypotheses formed the basis of Lantz, Luke, and May's Second study in 1993: (1) A significant increase of AC will be observed for dynamic targets if the dynamic pool is designed with an intermediate target pool bandwidth that matches the static pool from the 1992 study. (2) An increase ofAC will be observed for static targets because the receivers will be able to edit their internal experience. Summary of the second Anomalous Cognition Experiment - 1993 The details of the 1993 study may also be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). In that study, they included a static vs dynamic target condition to replicate the findings from the ganzfeld, but dropped the sender condition: all trials were conducted without a sender. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 6 maLAPO%vftFrerg%ftQb4OUbKM7: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270016"23 March 1994 MW CPYRGHT *W 00 Target Pools - 1993 For this experiment, Lantz, Luke, and May redesigned both the static and dynamic targets with the constraint that they all must conform to the topic, size, and affectivity homogeneity of the original static targets. Surprisingly enough, they identified a large number of videos that could be edited to produce 50 National Geographic-like segments: an airplane ride through Bryce Canyon in Utah or a scanning panoramic view of Yosemite Falls. Lantz, Luke, and May selected a single frame from within each dy- namic target video clip, which was characteristic of the entire clip, to act as its static equivalent. Thus, they were able to improve the target pools in two ways: (1) The dynamic pool possessed an intermediate target pool bandwidth. (2) The bandwidth of the dynamic and static pools were nearly identical, by design. Data Analysis and Results - 1993 For each response, a single analyst conducted a blind ranking of five targets-the intended one and f decoys-in the usual way. Lantz, Luke, and May computed effect sizes in the same way as in the 11. study. Three receivers individually participated in 10 trials for each target type and a fourth, 372, participa in 15 trials per target type. Table 3 shows the average rank, the effect size, and its associated p-value the static target condition. We see that the combined data is significant and three of the four receiN produced independently significant results. Thble 3. Results for Static Targets - 1993 Experiment dw AW MW Receiver ES p-value 9 2.20 0.565 0.037 372 1.87 0.801 9.7 x 10-4 389 3.10 -0.071 0.589 518 1.90 0.778 7.2 x 10-3 Totals 2.22 0-550 1.1 X 10-5 Lantz, Luke, and May observed a nearly significant increase of A C for the static targets in the 1993 periment compared to that of the 1992 experiment (X2 = 3.158, df = 1, p:!!~ 0. 075), and three of the f receivers improved from their 1992 results. Thus, the second hypothesis (i.e., an increase in AC static targets) was strongly supported. Table 4 shows the same data for the dynamic targets. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 7 OM Magqjpq~ft TW~WbF&1cdd3P00Wb#JU7: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO03002706" f3 MarCh 1994 CPYRGHT Results for Dynamic Targets - 1993 Experiment Receiver ES p-value 9 1.70 0.919 1.8 x 10-3 372 1.93 0.754 1.8 X 10-3 389 3.00 0.000 0.500 518 2.40 0.424 0.091 F lbtals2.22 0.550 1.1 X 10-5 Using the rank-order statistics above, Lantz, Luke, and May saw no difference between static and dy- namic targets in their 1993 study. The first hypothesis was confirmed: they observed a significant in- crease ofACwith dynamic targets in 1993 from that of 1992 (X2 = 9.94Z df = 1, p:!!~ 1.6 X 10-3). A detailed analysis of the static vs dynamic target issue may be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994) and in May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994). General Discussion and Conclusions One possible interpretation of the results from Lantz, Luke, and May's two experiments is that the noise was sharply reduced by narrowing the target pool bandwidth. They observed a significant increase ofAC with the dynamic targets and a large increase with the static ones. Caution is advised in that this analysis ispost hoc, and there were a number of potential contributing factors. For example, in the first experiment, receivers were not monitored and were at distances ranging from a few 100s to 1000s of kin from the targets." In addition, feedback was delayed for a few days due to the delivery time of the U.S. postal service. In the second experiment, the receivers were monitored, given immediate feedback, and the targets were meters away. Yet, we find the bandwidth analysis compelling because of its "common sense" appeal. Since the properties attributed to target pool bandwidth may be subjected to experimen- tal scrutiny, we urge that such studies be carried out. For example, is there a parabolic-like functional relationship between the target pool bandwidth and the A C effect size? To conduct such experiments, we need to develop a quantitative definition of target pool bandwidth. This implies a quantitative definition of cognitive content, and we have been applying our fuzzy set analysis (May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and Trask, 1990) toward this end. We are also looking at other measures that might be used. Nonetheless, it seems clear that a quantitative definition of band- width is within reach. Once realized, and if the target pool bandwidth idea can be verified, we all may benefit from a specific protocol that will reduce the noise in free-response A C experiments. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 AW Ma"" qW99P 7: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270OM123 March 1994 References Bern, D. J. and Honorton, C. (1994). Does psi exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous process of information transfer. Psychological Bulletim 115, No. 1, 4-18. Honorton, C. and Harper, S. (1974). Psi-mediated imagery and ideation in an experimental procedure for regulating perceptual input. The Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research. 68, 156-168. Honorton, C. (1975). Error Some Place! Journal of Communication, 103-116. Honorton, C. and Ferrari, D. C. (1989). "Future TellinW." A meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments, 1935-1987. Journal of Parapsychology, S3, 281-308. Honorton, C., Bergq, R. E., Varvoglis, M. P, Quant, M., Derr, P, Schechter, E. I., and Ferrari, D. C. (1990) Psi Communication in the ganzfeld. Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 99-139. Lantz, N. D. and Luke, W. L W., and May, E. C. (1994). Thrget and sender dependencies in anomalous cognition experiments. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C-, Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B. S., Luke, W. L W., FrivoK T J., and Ikask, V V (1990). Advances in remote-viewing analysis. Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 193-228. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J., and James, C. L. (1994b). Shannon entropy as an intrinsic target property: Ibward a reductionist model of anomalous cognition.. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. Rosenthal, R. and Rubin, D. B. (1989). Effect size estimation for one-sample multiple-choice-type data: Design, analysis, and meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 106, 332-337. Rosenthal, R. (1991). Meta-analyticproceduresfor social research (Rev. ed). Newbury Park, Ca: Sage. Schlitz, M. J. and Honorton, C. (1992). Ganzfeld psi performance within an artistically gifted population. 7he Journal of theAmerican Society for Psychical Research, 86, No. 2,83-98. YAW Approved For Release 2000108107: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 9 Approved For R ase 2000/0 7 - CIA-FDP -1 --do Phonomenologlc -IT Wesearch anffialys s: 1nal'WQW7ROO0300270001 mw APPENDIX D Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic Target Property: Toward a Reductionist Model of Anomalous Cognition Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 33 low ShaVAMEO&WWM$ftkddWG/ftg9rt:FtMOAklYP96-00787ROO030027000ilR- 22 April 1994 CPYRGHT Shannon Entropy as an Intrinsic Target Property: Toward a Reductionist Model of Anomalous Cognition WO by Edwin C. May, Ph.D. S. James P. Spottiswoode (Consultant) and Christine L. James Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory Menlo Park, CA Abstract We propose that the average total change of Shannon's entropy is a candidate for an intrinsic target property. We analyze the results of two lengthy experiments that were conducted from 1992 through 1993 and find a significant correlation (Spearman's 0 = 0.337, df = 31, t = 1.99, p !~~ 0.028) with an absolute measure of the quality of the anomalous cognition. The 1993 result replicated the similar fin 'd ing from the 1992 study. We describe the methodology, the calculations, and correlations in detail and provide guidelines for those who may wish to conduct similar studies. In addition, we provide circum- stantial evidence which leads us toward a reductionist view of anomalous cognition. 4W Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYR"ftMOr5P? W*W*$MPIRDIWUi§-6tFCrWp4RW96-00787ROO0300270001V!t. 22 April 1994 OW 1W go aw low Introduction The psychophysical properties of the five known senses are well known (Reichert, 1992). At the "front end," they share similar properties. For example, each system possesses receptor cells that convert some form of energy (e.g., photons for the visual system, sound waves for the audio system) into electro- chemical signals. The transfer functions are sigmoid; that is, there is a threshold for physical excitation, a linear region, and a saturation level above which more input produces that same output. How these psychophysical reactions translate to sensational experience is not well understood, but all the systems do possess an awareness threshold similar to the subliminal threshold for the visual system. Since all the known senses appear to share these common properties, it is reasonable to expect that if anomalous cognition (A C)* is mediated through some additional "sensory" system, then it, too, should share similar properties. For example, a putativeAC sensory system should possess receptor cells that have a signioidal transfer function and exhibit threshold and saturation phenomena. As far as we know, there are no candidate neurons in the peripheral systems whose functions are currently not understood. So, if receptor cells exist, it is likely that they will be found in the central nervous system. Since 1989, our laboratory has been conducting a search for such receptor sites (May, Luke, Trask, and Frivold, 1990); that activity continues. There is a second way in which receptor-like behavior might be seen in lieu of a neurophysiology study. If either an energy carrier for AC or something that correlated with it were known, then it might be possible to infer sigmoidal functioning at the behavioral level as opposed to the cellular level. Suppose we could identify an intrinsic target property that correlated with AC behavior. Then, by manipulating this variable, we might expect to see a threshold at low magnitudes and saturation at high magnitudes. Th construct such an experiment, it is mandatory that we eliminate, as much as possible, all extraneous sources of variance and adopt an absolute measure for theAC behavior (Lantz, Luke, and May, 1994). We can reduce onc source of variance by considering what constitutes a good target in an A C experi- ment. Delanoy (1988) reported on a survey of the literature for successful AC experiments and catego- rized the target material according to perceptual, psychological and physical characteristics. Except for trends related to dynamic, multi-sensory targets, she was unable to observe systematic correlations of AC quality with her target categories. Watt (1988) examined the target question from a theoretical perspective. She concluded that the "best" AC targets are those that are meaningful, have emotional impact, and contain human interest. Those targets that have physical features that stand out from their backgrounds or contain movement, novelty, and incongruity are also good targets. In trying to understand these findings and develop a methodology for target selection for process-ori- ented research, we have constructed a metaphor. Figure 1 shows three conceptual domains that con- tribute to the variability in A C experiments. ne engineering metaphor of source, transmission, and detector allows us to assign known contributors to the variance of specific domains. Without controlling The Cognitive Sciences Laboratory has adopted the term anomalousmentalphenomena instead of the morewidely knownpsi. Likewise, we use the terms anomalous cognuion and anomalousperwbation for ESP and PK, respectively. Wehavedoneso because we believe that thew terms are more naturally descriptive of the observables and are neutral in that they do not imply mechanism. These new terms will be used throughout this paper. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 2 ShAWt1Mr1Q~VF1~1~~N00~b?(T9W~ ZRMN"P96-00787RO0030027000 ly?. 22 April 1994 aw CPYRGHT NO go No or understanding these sources, interpreting the results from process-oriented research is problemati- cal, if not impossible. Tkansmission Source Detector Ell U NIK Figure 1. Information-transfer Metaphor For example, suppose that the quality of an A C response actually depended upon the physical size of a target, and that affectivity was also a contributing factor. That is, a large target that was emotionally appealing was reported more often more correctly. Obviously, both factors are important in optimizing the outcome; however, suppose we were studying the effect of target size alone. Then an "attractive" small target might register as well as a less attractive large target and the size dependency would be con- founded in unknown ways. Our metaphor allows us to assign variables, such as these, to specific elements. Clearly, an individual's psychological response to a target is not an intrinsic property of a target; rather, it is a property of the receiver. Ukewise, size is a physical property of the target and is unrelated to the receiver. Generally, this metaphor allows us to Jump together the psychology, personality, and physiology of the receiver and consider these important factors as contributors to a detector "efficiency." If it is true that an emotion- ally appealing target is easier to sense by some individuals, we can think of them as more efficient at those tasks. In the same way, all physical properties of a target are intrinsic to the target and do not depend on the detector efficiency. Perhaps, temporal and spatial distance between target and receiver are intrinsic to neither the target nor the receiver, but rather to the transmission mechanism, whatever that may be. More than just nomenclature, our metaphor can guide us in designing experiments to decrease certain variabilities in order to conduct meaningful process-oriented research. Some of the methodological improvements seem obvious. If the research objective is to understand the properties ofAC rather than understanding how an A C ability may be distributed in the population, then combining results across receivers should be done with great caution. Th understand how to increase high jumping ability, for example, it makes no sense to use a random sample from the general population as high jumpers; rather, find a good high jumper and conduct vertical studies (no pun intended). So, too, is it true in the study of A C. We can easily reduce the variance by asking given receivers to participate in a large number of trials and not combining their results. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 3 Sh*ppD Sidrbpyftkoi*doSlWffaroPt-RTg~96C6bfeMbTOO3002700OF4.22 April 1994 so no Ow so to aw mw go MW May, Spottiswoode, and James (1994) suggest that by Hmiting the number of cognitively differentiable elements within a target, the variance can also be decreased. A further reduction of potential variance can be realized if the target pool is such that a receiver's emotional/psychological response is likely to be more uniform across targets (i.e., reducing the detector variance as shown in Figure 1). Having selected experienced receivers and attended to these methodological considerations, we could then focus our attention on examining intrimic target properties. If we are successful at identifying one such property, then all process-orientedAC research would be significantly improved because we would be able to control a source of variance that is target specific. The remainder of the paper describes two lengthy studies that provide the experimental evidence to suggest that the average of the total change of Shannon's entropy is,one such intrinsic target property. Approach The A C methodological details for the two experiments can be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). In this section, we focus on the target calculations and the analysis techniques. Shannon Entropy: A Short Description Building upon the pioneeringwork of Leo Szilard (1925,1929), Shannon and Weaver (1949) developed what is now called information theory. This theory formalizes the intuitive idea of information that there is more "information" in rare events, such as winning the lottery, than in common ones, such as taking a breath. Shannon defined the entropy for a given system as the logarithmic average of the prob- ability of occurrence of all possible events in the system. Entropy, used in this sense, is defined as a measure of our uncertainty, or lack of information, about a system. Suppose, for example, we had an octagonal fair die (i.e., each of the eight sides is equally likely to come up). Applying Equation 1, below, to this system gives an entropy of three bits, which is in fact the maximum possible for this system. If, on the other hand, the die were completely biased so that the same side always came up, the entropy would be zero. In other words, if each outcome is equally likely then each event. has the maximum surprise. Conversely, there is no surprise if the same side always lands facing up. In the case of images, a similar analysis can be used to calculate the entropy. For simplicity, consider a black and white image in which the brightness, or luminance, of each picture element, or pixel, is mea- sured on a scale from zero to 255, that is, with an eight bit binary number. Equation 1 can again be used to arrive at a measure of the picture's entropy. As with the other sensory systems were gradients are more easily detected, we shall show that the gradient of Shannon's entropy is correlated with AC perfor- mance far better than the entropy itself. In other sensory systems, receptor cells are sensitive to incident energy regardless of "meaning", which is ascribed as a later cognitive function. Shannon entropy is also devoid of meaning. The pixel analysis ignores anything to do with cognitive features. From this point of view, a photograph of a nuclear blast is, perhaps, no more Shannon-entropic than a photograph of a kitten; it all depends on the intensities, which were used to create the photographs. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 4 low Am go 011 shAmomrPov FtanMVa~b?(T§rW 'NWM~15964MQW030027000 lyf. 22 April 1994 Target Calculations Because of the analogy with other sensorial systems, we expected that the change of entropy would be more sensitive than would be the entropy alone. 'Me target variable that we considered, therefore, was the average total change of entropy. In the case of image data, the entropy is defined as: Nk Sk P.*1092(P.1d, 0-0 wherep~.k is the probability of finding image intensity m of color k. In a standard, digitized, true color image, each pixel (i.e., picture element) contains eight binary bits of red, green, and blue intensity, re- spectively. 17hat is, Nk is 255 (i.e., 28 - 1) for each k, k = r, & b. For color, k, the total change of the entropy in differential form is given by: dSk = IVSA + Ids ' Idr. (2) ra 7t We must specify the spatial and temporal resolution before we can compute the total change of entropy for a real image. Henceforth, we drop the color index, k, and assume that all quantities are computed for each color and then summed. To compute the entropy from Equation 1, we must specify empirically the intensity probabilities,p, In Lantz, Luke, and May's 1993 experiment, the targets were all video clips that met the following criteria: ~ lbpic homogeneity. The photographs contained outdoor scenes of settlements (e.g., villages, towns, cities, etc.), water (e.g., coasts, rivers and streams, waterfalls, etc.), and topography (e.g., mountains, hills, desserts, etc.). ~ Size homogeneity. Thrget elements are all roughly the same size. 11at is, there are no size surprises such as an ant in one photograph and the moon in another. ~ Affectivity homogeneity. As much as possible, the targets included materials which invoke neutral affectivity. For static targets, a single characteristic frame from a video segment was digitized (i.e., 640 x 480 pixels) for eight bits of information of red, green, and blue intensity. The video image conformed to the NTSC standard aspect ratio of 4 x 3, so we arbitrarily assumed an area (i.e., macro-pixel) of 16 x 12 = 192 pix- els from which we calculated the p, Since during the feedback phase of a trial the images were dis- played on a Sun Microsystems standard 19-inch color monitor, and since they occupied an area approxi- mately 20x 15 cm square, the physical size of the macro-pixels was approximately 0.5 cm square. Since major cognitive elements were usually not smaller than this, this choice was reasonabie-192 pixels were sufficient to provide a smooth estimate of the P, For this macro-pixel size, the target frame was divided into a 40 x4O array. The entropy for the (4j)th macro-pixel was computed as: N-1 sij I N 1092(P- )I M-0 wherepm is computed empirically only from the pixels in the (4 j) macro-pixel and m is the pixel intensi- ty. For example, consider the white square in the upper left portion of the target photograph shown in Figure 2. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 5 shAWomrpevft%nA%t~oO(Torp~F'LIIW-M5P96-00787ROO030027000,yf. 22 April 1994 MW CPYRGHT old The green probability distribution for this macro-pixel (3,3) is shown in Figure 3. The probability dei ty and the photograph itself indicate that most of the intensity in this macro-pixel is near zero (i.e., intensity of green in this case). In a similar fashion, the,~j are calculated for the entire scene. Since i j range from zero to 40, each frame contains a total of 1, 600 macro-pixels. We used a standard image processing algorithm to compute the 2-dimensional spatial gradient for of the 1,600 macro-pixels. The first term in Equation 2 was approximated by its average value ove image. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 6 Figure 2. City with a Mosque cAJkiM*f**voY F*whktrhftd*gfgvt:R~fwwbP96-00787ROO0300270001 .22 Apr 1994 MW The total change of entropy for the dynamic targets was calculated in much the same way. The video segment was digitized at one frame per second. llie spatial term of Equation 2 was computed exactly as it was for the static frames. The second term, however, was computed from differences between adja- cent, 1-second frames for each macro-pixel. Or, asli M!~ sq(t + Idt) - sii(t) (3) at A t I 'd t I I am 9W No "W low Wd so where,dt is one over the digitizing frame rate. We can see immediately that the dynamic targets will have a largerdS than do the static ones because Equation 3 is identically zero for all static targets. In Lantz, Luke, and May's 1992 experiment, the static targets were digitized from scanned photographs. This difference and its consequence will be discussed below. AC-Data Analysis Rank-order analysis in Lantz, Luke, and Mays (1994) experiment demonstrated significant evidence forAC; however, this procedure does not usually indicate the absolute quality of theAC. Forexample,a response that is a near-perfect description of the target receives a rank of one. But a response which is barely matchable to the target may also receive a rank of one. Thble 1 shows the rating scale that we used to assess the quality of the A C responses, regardless of their rank. 7b apply this subjective scale to anAC trial, an analyst begins with a score of seven and determines if the description for that score is correct. If not, then the analyst tries a score of six and so on. In this way the scale is traversed from seven to zero until the score-description seems reasonable for the trial. Uble 1. 0-7 Point Assessment Scale ScoreDescription 7 Excellent correspondence, including good analytical detail, with essentially no incorrect information 6 Good correspondence with good analytical information and relatively little incorrect information. 5 Good correspondence with unambiguous unique matchable elements, but some incorrect information. 4 Good correspondence with several matchable elements intermixed with incorrect information. 3 Mixture of correct and incorrect elements, but enough of the former to indicate receiver has made contact with the site. 2 Some correct elements, but not sufficient to suggest results beyond chance expectation. I Little correspondence. No correspondence. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 7 MW ShAppop fadr5py ftkai*dOgWff$fgPt-ftgP*MP96-00787ROO030027000,y?. 22 April 1994 CPYRGHT Anomalous Cognition Experiment - 1992 In Lantz, Luke and May's 1992 experiment there were no significant interactions between target condi- tion (i.e., static vs dynamic) and sender condition (i.e., sender vs no sender); therefore, they combined the data for static targets regardless of the sender condition (i.e., 100 trials). Ile surn-of-ranks was 265 (i.e., exact sum-of-rank probability of p < 0. 007, effect size = 0. 248). The total sum-of-ranks, for the dynamic targets was 300 (i.e., p < 0.50, effect size = 0. 000). Entropy Analysis 1b examine the relationship of entropy to AC, two analysts independently rated all 100 trials (i.e., 20 each from five receivers) from the static-target sessions using the post hoc rating scale shown in Thble 1. All differences of assignments were verbally resolved, thus the resulting scores represented a reason- able estimate of the visual quality of the A C for each trial. We had specified, in advance, for the correlation with the change of target entropy, we would only use the section of thepost hoc rating scale that represented definitive, albeit subjective,A C contact with the target (i.e., scores four through seven). Figure 4 shows a scatter diagram for the post hoc rating and the associated AS for the 28 trials with static targets that met this requirement. Shown also is a linear least- squares fit to the data and a Spearman rank-order correlation coefficient (Lo = 0. 45Z df = 26, t =258, P < Zo X 10-). This strong correlation suggests that AS is an intrinsic property of a static target and that the quality of an A C response will be enhanced for targets with large AS. It is possible, however, that this correlation might be a result of AS and the post hoc rating independently correlating with the targets' visual com- plexity. For example, an analyst is able to find more matching elements (i.e., a higherpost hoc rating) in a visually complex target than in a visually simple one. Similarly, AS may be larger for more complex targets. If these hypotheses were true, the correlation shown in Figure 4 would not support the hypoth- esis that AS is an important intrinsic target property for successfulAC. Th check the validity of the correlation, we used a definition of visual complexity, which was derived from a fuzzy set representation of the target pool. We had previously coded by consensus, 131 different potential target elements for their visual impact on each of the targets in the pool. We assumed that the sigma-count (i.e., the sum of the membership values over all 131 visual elements) for each target is pro- portional to its visual complexity. A description of the fuzzy set technique and a list of the target ele- ments may be found in May, Utts, Humphrey, Luke, Frivold, and Trask (1990). The Spearman rank correlation between target complexity and post hoc rating was small (p = 0 041, df = 98; t =0.407, p:5 0.342). On closer inspection this small correlation was not surprising. While it is true that an analyst will find more matchable elements in a complex target, so also are there many ele- ments that do not match. Since the rating scale (i.e., Thble 1) is sensitive to correct and incorrect ele- ments, the analyst is not biased by visual complexity. Approved For Rel;ase 2000/08/07 : CIA-R .DP96-00787ROO0300270001 -1 8 Sh Mrpey RmWIce(offisrW FftPWBP96-00787ROO030027000 1y?. 22 April 1994 Imi CPYRGT" 4W 091 2.5. L3 = 0.452 df = 26 2_0'- t = 2.58 p = 0.008 1.5 Soo 4) 1.0 - IU 0.5 0.0 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rating Score Figure 4. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Static Target AS. Since the change of Shannon entropy is derived from the intensities of the three primary colors (i.e., Equation 1 on page 5) and is unrelated to meaning, which is inherent in the definition of visual com- plexity, we would not expect a correlation between AS and visual complexity. We confirmed this ex- pectation when we found a small correlation (e = -0.028, df = 98, t = -0.277, p < 0.609). Visual complexity, therefore, cannot account for the correlation shown in Figure 4; thus, we are able to suggest that the quality of an AC response depends upon the spatial information (i.e., change of Shan- non entropy) in a static target. A single analyst scored the 100 responses from the dynamic targets using thepost hoc scale in Table 1. Figure 5 shows the scatter diagram for the post hoc scores and the associated AS for the 24 trials with a score greater than three for the dynamic targets. We found a Spearman correlation of LD=aO55, df = 22 (t =a258, P'< 0.399). This small correlation is not consistent with the result derived from the static targets; therefore, we ex- amined this case carefully. The total sum of ranks for the dynamic-target case was exactly mean chance expectation, which indicates that no A C was observed (Lantz, Luke, and May, 1994). May, Spotti- swoode, and James (1994) propose that the lack ofAC might be because an imbalance of, what they call, the target pool bandwidth. That is, the number of different cognitive elements in the dynamic pool far exceeded that in the static pool. This imbalance was corrected in the 1993 study and is analyzed below. Regardless, we would not expect to see a correlation if there is no evidence of A C. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 9 V2.22 April 1994 Sha P96-00787ROO0300270001 -1 lid low ~,'PYRGHT 7 2- 0 6d L3 = 0.055 < df = 22 0 1 1 -1 3 4 5 6 7 8 Rating Score Figure 5. Correlation of Post Hoc Score with Dynamic TargetAS. Anomalous Cognition Experiment - 1993 The details of the 1993 study may also be found in Lantz, Luke, and May (1994). In that study, they included a static vs dynamic target condition, and all trials were conducted without a sender. They changed the target pools so that their bandwidths were similar. They also included a variety of other methodological improvements, which are not apropos to this discussion. Lantz, Luke, and May selected a single frame from each dynamic target video clip, which was character- istic of the entire clip, to act as its static equivalent. The static and dynamic targets, therefore, were digitized with the same resolution and could be combined for the correlations. For each response, a single analyst conducted a blind ranking of five targets-the intended one and four decoys--in the usual way. Lantz, Luke, and May computed effect sizes in the same way as in the 1992 study. Three receivers individually participated in 10 trials for each target type and a fourth participated in 15 trials per target type. Lantz, Luke, and May reported a total average rank for the static targets of 2.22 for 90 trials for an effect size of 0.566 (p :5 75 x 10 -5); the exact same effect size was reported for the dynamic targets. Entropy Analysis Differing from the 1992 experiment, an analyst, who was blind to the correct target choice used the scale, which is shown in Thble 1, to assess each response to the same target pack that was used in the rank-order analysis. The average total change of Shannon's entropy (i.e., Equation 2) was calculated for each target as described above. Figure 6 shows the correlation of the blind rating score with this gradient. The squares and diamonds indicate the data for static and dynamic targets, respectively. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 10 Sh V2. 22 April 1994 CPYRW?6%lgi9(?XFtlilOJen~b%?OT&W! MP-9596-00787RO00300270001-1 cc 4 ...... ... ......... 0.337 df = 31 t = 1.991 0 Dynarruic p = 0.028 0 ~ Com ined : Combiwd 0 0 B 0 Static F .... ........ ..... O 3 4 5 5 Rating Score ES Figure 6. Correlations for Significant Receivers ]MW General Conclusions Th understand the differences between the results in the two experiments, we re-digitized the static set of targets from the 1992 experiment with the same hardware and software that was used in the 1993 study. With this new entropy data, the correlation dropped from a significant 0.452 to 0.298 which is not significant (t = 1.58, df = 26, p !!~ aO63). Combining this data with the static results from the 1993 experiment (i.e., significant receivers) the static correlation was e = 0. 161, df = 41 (t = 1. 04, p:!:'~~ 0. 152). The correlation for the static targets from the 1992 experiment combined with the significant static and dynamic data from the 1993 experiment was significant (Lo = a320, df = 59, t = 2 60, p :!!::: 0. 006). 11ese post hoc results are shown in Figure 7. The combined data from the two experiments, including all re- ceivers and all scores greater than four, give a significant correlation (Lo = 0. 258, df = 64, t 2 13, p < a018). The key indicates the Spearman correlation for the static and dynamic targets combined. In addition, since the hypothesis was that anomalous cognition would correlate with the total change of the Shannon entropy, Figure 6 only shows the scores in the upper half of the scale in Table 1 for the 70 trials of the three independently significant receivers. Ile static target correlation was negative (g -0.284, df 13, t =-1.07, p < 0.847) and the correlation from the dynamic targets was positive (Q 0.320, df = 16, t =L35, p :!~ 0.098). The strong correlation for the combined data arises primarily from the entropic: difference between the static and dynamic targets. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 11 S~enpnjqn an In 11 1pril 1994 ryFf ejease Y6Mi%W?69qt Effl-"96-00787RO00300270001 p v§HW MW :,PYRGHT Dynamic 40 2- Combined 0 E3 0 0 0 cc t!!3 4::-- ~c,:] .C M Stan Static OL ......... 5 7 Rating Score Figure 7. Correlations for Combined Experiments We conclude that the quality of A C appears to correlate linearly with the average total change of the Shannon entropy, which is an Wrinsic target property. These two experiments may raise more questions than they answer. If our conservative approach, which assumes that AC functions similarly to the other sensorial systems, is correct, we would predict that theA C correlation with the frame entropy should be smaller than that for the average total change of the entropy. We computed the total frame entropy from thep,- all of the 640 x 480 pixels. The result- ing correlation for the significant receivers in the 1993 experiment was p = 0.234, df = 31 (t = 1.34, p < 0.095). This correlation is considerably smaller than that from the gradient approach, however, not significantly so. We computed the average of the S;j for the 1,600 macro-pixels as a second way of mea- suring the spatial entropic variations. We found a significant Spearman's correlation of Lo = 0.423, df = 31 (t = 2 60, p:!!~'t 0.007) for the significant receivers in the 1993 experiment. The difference between the correlation of the quality of the AC with the frame entropy and with either measure of the spatial gradi- ent is not significant; however, these large differences are suggestive of the behavior of other sensorial systems (i.e., an increased sensitivity with change of the input). We have quoted a number of different correlations under varying circumstances and have labeled these aspost hoc. For example, hardware limitations in 1992 prevented us from combining those data with the data from 1993. Thus, we recalculated the entropies with the upgraded hardware in 1993 and recom- puted the correlations. Our primary conclusions, however, are drawn only from the static results from the 1992 experiment and the confirmation from the combined static and dynamic 1993 results. It is clear from our analysis that we may have identified an intrinsic target property that correlates with the quality of anomalous cognition. Our results suggest a host of new experiments and analyses before we can come to this conclusion with certainty. For example, suppose we construct a new target pool that is maximized for the gradient of Shannon's entropy yet meets reasonable criteria for the target pool bandwidth. If the Shannon information is important, than we should see exceptionally strong A C. We also must improve the absolute measure of AC While dividing our zero-to-seven rating scale in two makes qualitative sense, it was an arbitrary decision. Rank order statistics are not as sensitive to cor- Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 12 ,n epn ln1q68Qgypt ~V_f. 22 April 1994 Shannon E rpgy ir CPY"Rrpvbj ease P(MR-OP96-00787ROO030027000 OW OW aw relations as are absolute measures (Lantz, Luke, and May, 1994); but, perhaps, if the A C effect size is significantly increased with a proper target pool, the rank-order correlations will be strong enough. It may be time consuming; however, it is also important to understand the dependency of the correlation on the digitizing resolution. In the first experiment, we digitized the hard copy photographs using a flatbed scanner with an internal resolution of 100 dots/inch and used 640 x 480 pixels for the static and dynamic targets in the second experiment. Why did the correlation drop for the static targets by nearly 35 percent when the digitizing resolution decreased by 20 percent? We noticed, post hoc, that the correlations exhibit large oscillations around zero below the cutoff score of four. If we assume there is a linear relationship between A C scores and the total change of Shannon entropy, we would expect unpredictable behavior for the correlation at low scores because they imply chance matches with the target and do not correlate with the entropy. Since we are suggesting a reductionist perspective, we speculate that the linear correlation suggests be- havioral, albeit circumstantial, evidence for receptor-like functioning for the detection ofAC. To deter- mine if this is true, we must identify threshold and saturation limits. It is absolutely critical to confirm our overall results and to provide answers to some of the enigmas from our experiment. If we have identified an intrinsic target property, then all of our research can precede more efficiently. Consider the possibilities if we were able to construct a target pool and eliminate a known source of variance. Psychological and physiological factors would be much easier to detect. Giv- en the availability of inexpensive video digitizing boards for personal computers, replication attempts are easily within the grasp of research groups with modest operating budgets. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 13 mw Sh Y~. 22 April 1994 ,ROOPN\)ilPcPrVeliLns'en~BN%~)$o M9-9596-00787RO00300270001 References Bern, D. J. and Honorton, C. (1994). Does psi exist? Replicable evidence for an anomalous process of information transfer. Psychological Bulletin. 115, No. 1, 4-18. Delanoy, D. L (1988), Characteristics of successful free-response targets: Experimental findings and observations. Proceedings of Presented Papers, T"he Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, Montreal, Canada, 230-246. Watt, C. (1988). Characteristics of successful free-response targets: Theoretical considerations. Proceedings of Presented Papers, The Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, Montreal, Canada, 247-263. Lantz, N. D. and Luke, W. L. W., and May, E. C. (1994). Urget and sender dependencies in anomalous cognition experiments. Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C., Luke, W L. W,ftask, V V, and Frivold, I J. (1990). Observation of neuromagnetic fields in response to remote stimuli. Proceedings of Presented Papers, The Parapsychological Association 33rd Annual Convention, National 4-H Center, Chevy Chase, MD, 168-185. May, E. C., Spottiswoode, S. J. R, and James, C. L (1994). Managing the target pool bandwidth: Noise reduction in anomalous cognition experiments.Submitted for publication in the Journal of Parapsychology. May, E. C., Utts, J. M., Humphrey, B. S., Luke, W L W, Frivold, T J., and aask, V V (1990). Advances in remote-viewing analysis. Journal of Parapsychology, 54, 193-228. Reichert, H. (1992). Introduction to NeurobioloV, Oxford University Press, New York, NY. Shannon, C. E. and Weaver, W (1949). The Mathematical Theory of Communication. University of Illinois Press, Urbana, IL. Szilard, L. (1925) On the extension of phenomenological thermodynamics to fluctuation phenomena. Zeitschrift f4r Physik, 32, 753-788. English translation in The Collected Works of Leo Szilard.- Scientific Papers. B. T Feld and G. W Szilard, Ed. MIT Press Cambridge, 1972,34-102. Szilard, L. (1929). On the decrease of entropy in a thermodynamic system by the intervention of intelligent beings. Zeitschrift P Physik, 53, 840-856, English translation in The Collected Works of Leo Sidant- Scientific Papers. B. T Feld and G. W Szilard, Ed. MIT Press Cambridge, 1972, 103-129. OW go wo 40 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 14 U0 roved F r Cqtfse 20 10 :lCl PpVP -007 -1 olo IR 1001nomen og na ysm na?fiePO47ROO0300270001 anWR7 esearcgO APPENDIX E Security Measures In an Automated Ganzfeld System and SAIC FINAL REPORT Ganzfeld Experiment Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 34 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Secuxity Mcamums In an Automted Gandeld S*stesn by Kathy S. DaIL011 Robert L. Morris Dtprtinetit of Psycimlogy University 01 Edinburghm Dran R sill n Center for Advanced Coplitfte Science University of Nevada & Richard Wlioman PsydioloU Division, Haffield Campus University of Hertfor"re Abstract The past success rate of the automated Sanvreld system has brought with it both praise and crititisms from experimenters and critics Wike. A now, improvcd apptuacil tu se:cmky LumuLus widdil dio gunzfeld wtflng is desurlheil, alang with the implications that Lhe need for such precautions entails. The specific example of the currant automated gm&eld system and its security precaudons in use at the Kocstlcr Chair of ParapsycholnZy in Rdinhurgh UniversiTy Is eovered in some detail, with recommendations for futura improvements. *The Koesftr Chair nf Pampsychology would like. to gratefully acknowledge the American. Society for Psychical Research, the Parapsychology Foundation, and the Socioty for Psychical Rexarch for financial suppon of persomiel WILI alUiplWILL germann tn tbis prnjwt. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 400 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT Introduction As parapsychological test.ing pr=durus prudLicesucce%shil mquIrq. rhey Attract increasingly sophisticated levels or criticism, including criticism of thesecurity aspects of the system. Safcguar& against fraud or deviation from protocol are often challenged, WWI LegiUd to remarcher.4 as well as participants. For p=cipants, this is especially true for protocols that involve very few individuals, already regarded as talented, iacludiug sput;ialwader-recetvrr pairs, or thaw, that Mcus nn dramati( ceftects, such as macro-ft. Many parapsychologists deliberately chose to avoid gifted individuals and tele-pathy procedures, bevause they wished to cxape die inevitable mWestions of fratid that wnuld lilrely follow positive results. As Morris (19V), has argued, protocols that emphasize few participants and dramatic effew are regarded as ideal by those who wish to avoid the noibo &ud unceridinty produced hy weak Trmilts and The need for slatistical inference. Researchers who rely on such protocols are more likely to draw strong infmnces from them, and =y find that their results ate alliactivu Lu die medi& It IS linf(irninare, Therefore, that such dramatic effem are also regarded as ideal for the psuedopsychic, the participant intending to cheat it Xiven the opportunity. Most cffects developed ovei the ycaus within the magic commlinity Tend To t* drartiatic., because they are easily noticed and are therefore more impressive, as wall as cmarmirfirig. In Ennoral, The more participants involved in a study the less likely deception is, as one would need to posit increasingly complex collusion among different individual& Process-oriented reseaj*ch also ini4aws against deceimion, as thit internal pairerns of results would need to be produced fraudulently as well. This is true especially for individual differences eflects, whe-rc thosc with iome traits do better than odiers despite uundidum heing equal (mg. Palmer, 1977), Fven here. it could be. argued Owl if some pamcipants produce lake results and others don't, than any characteristics hold in common by the fak-es wHl be found to be cofrelated wifli psi succe.m. And ir many pRrrimponTs are. intending to produce fraudulent results but differ in personal characteristics, It could be argued that certain characLoristics. might still emerge as corrclated with s=ess bm-auw diuse who possews ffitam (mch Rs extroversion), will be better able to negotiate weakened procedures. Once again, with larger population samples, such possibilitics become increasingly unlikely unless the participaws we all amwn froin the sarne tightly knii Vmip, niS poses a problem, becam many invesb8ators may not have ate necessary r ewurces to conduct larger studies and/or may not be able to locate enough participants capable of the level of performance that would he drs~qired for effective process-oriented research. Thus, it is important to employ procedures designed to minimize the Iftlihood of participant fraudL A second am& of security concerns precautions Against experimenter fraud or deviation from intended proccdurc. This, is a serious consideration primarily for protocols that einploy it shigIr. expLTbnenter and where fraud wmflC likely to pass unnoticed by others connected with the study, both colleagues and participawL Experimenter fraud is of less concern with coo-experimenter procedures. where different semlons aie cunducled by dirferent expMmenim, and where independent replications exist. When considering experimenter fraud itshould be noted that motivation can go in both directions. One may wish to got good results % ke -up a prograin alivo, ubtain inore funding and prnslige, etc., especially if one is persuaded Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT that the ettect is really there, although it is'shy und carrantly eluding do-tection. People who believe no ono alsc will obtaia &- =uo Emults presumahly ant less. l1krly m fnke outcomes sim-e- their own results will be called into question by the failure of others. On the other hand, it could be Argued that some researchers may be motivated to producc chance icsulLs siuvr, Lbuy would dien he regarrierl by mnny as excefient scientists, who are doing a fair evaluation ot the phenomena but using methodologically superior prowdure3, providing an important public service hi a Lffficult area- This might tK- mie as. wpil for researchers who do not expect to get good results but suddenly 17md the results starting to be positive, and who arc thus threatened with the likelihood that their rigorous culleaSucs will regard them finnilulent nr-at lent hicompetent, and vAll regard them as tutving been closet 'M believere' ull along. Thus, individual rewarchers may thcir motives questioned and be undei suWkiun of fhtud regardims of their ria.,vilts, 71his Is mom likely at earlier stages of research when consistent patterns of findings among researchers have not yet emerged. Such accusations. oven when indirect and merely implied, Luay sei ve Lu damage a line (if rrqcavrh, by casting unwarranted aspersions upon a researcher. This may thus change the social dynamics of future research attempts in ways that might reduce the likelihood of replication and exteasiou of rwdingii. Given the. possibility of attribution of fraud or procedural deviation, ideally one would wish to employ procedures that climinate thoc, without hopelessly consuduitig thu prucedures ui those that have nn real rznlngiml validfty and for which one would have little reason to expect succas. If the procedure's virtues could emly be made obvious to all potential critics. all involved may be 111OLC dble W LOW. rRjny thpir pAnicipatIon in the study, and feel confident that whatever results emerged would not lead to unfounded accusations. In practice such perfection is undoubtedly impowilble and coji oifly be appioxiumtud. 71m ino-st effective -wiludan, In parapsychology as well as other research, is natural replication and extension, with many participara and rcsoarcho-rs involved. But it is also impatant and useful to 11AVC PLUCULIUMS HN wellsafeguarded as 1xi.Whic even at rariyqtages, for several reasons: 1) as a agn at general Competence; 2) to minimiza unfair accmdons, 3) to help all concerncd feel comfortable with the way the results are going at vuious staM.. nf The,, midy: 4) to provide. condidous that will not need to be altered substantially in later stages, following reasonable- criticism of cArlicr -studies; 5) to discourage fraudulent hidividuals fLoui Varduipatiitg and wwking rewarchers, valuahle time, 6) to encourap others to feel confidetil, in replicatioa attempts; wd 7) to eneouraga potential sources of funding to feel confident that their funds wiH be intelligently speuL. in the remainder ol the pWr we will consider the autoganzfeld procedure currently in use at Edinburgh University as an example of attempts tu coiffium 1b= Issues n,%;!nE a prnmdnre That W, rece4ved considerable praise and criticism in the course of its development. Devellopment Ile automated pa-&Id system of the Koesder Chair of Parapsychology at Edinburgh University is a cutupWr b&,wd system thaL PTOVICILN antomatte, dam recording, highly effective sWelding against iensory cues, and resistance to Wth SUb*L and experimenter fraud. The program is run on a 33MHz 80380DX Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 90 CPYRGHT Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 computer, equipped with a 210 MB fixed disk, 8 MB DRAM, four RS 232 serial ports, an 80387 numeric coprocessor. and a super VGA monitor. Mic tuget, presentation system is an NEC PCIVCR, a frame-accumte NTSC videocagseUe recorder equipped with an RS 232 scrial interface. All VCR functions arc controlled by computeL softwait, aW vidru. audie and ctympuLer graphicq are. mated to the. aWopriate rmns (sender, receiver, or experimenter), through computer control. The system at Edinburgh w&,; originally conceived by Chuck Honorton. re- dmigned by Dean Radin and R nhin Tsiylnr ro improve security femres and sensory shielding, and initially programmed and documented by Dw Ptatfin. For a description of the Orst opciational system at Edinburgli. see Morris, et al. 1993. AdditinnRl sectirlty features and sensory shielding have been implemented by kattly Dalton, who also performed the necessary up-gradinA of programning and doctuventatiou. Cuasulladuns frum Richard Wiseman werr of awst. help in improving wcurity measures, and Deborah DeLanoy provided helpful insights in the early conception of the automated ganzfold security. Bob Morris w&% involved in all swi,,ft,s tif development. WoRATojty LAYour The Video Ganzfeld laboratory consisu, ot tour rooms, shown in Figure 1, and lalmlled as RECEWER (R), = (E), VIDEO (V), and SENDER (S). Receiver R's room is double walled, double-doored, electromagnetically and acoustically insuLated. It auenuates airborne sounds betwoon R7s and S's rooms by a minimum of 60 dB aud a w&ihuuw of 100 dB oveT the audio srrrTnun (50 Tiz to 8000 liz, Macy,gazic, 1992). some very low frequency vibrations can be felt inside R's room if people in the Experimenters room jump up and down. and faint noises ciui limud. When R is wrarinE The headphones, listening to white noise, and sitting in the reclining chair (Le., in Sanzfeld stimulation), Wis ability to hear any airborne sounds or vibrations originating in the expesbnental bufte ibsubstauddlly reduced. Tn any everi no sound or vibration can be heard or felt in R's room that originated ftom, S'S room. Experimenter E's room is adjacent to R's. Iteonta:ins the computLr that controls the audio/video target pfescutalium audio inixing equipment, and ntber Fisr'sorred audinfvideo hardware (shown in detail in Figure 2). Video Room The viden room is double walled, electromapetically and acoustically insulated, and contains the target presentation system. This consists of two NEC PC- VCRs, which Are computer-rontL olled NTSC-fLnUldL YWCU Lape TwordeTIplayers. - One. PC-VCR is useA only to send the target clip to S; the other is used to play the four judging clips to R. No sound from the VCR's can be detected outsidc the room when the doofs are clowd. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 VO ow Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT Sender 8 is placed in a room located about 25 meters. wid Onuugh four duon.', from R. S's room IN nnt. acmisfically or eiectromagnetically shielded. The TV monitor which conveys the target matexial in 8's room is positioned in the far comer away from the door, widi afirve foot partition beLwcea it zaid the, door, efrectivelyshieldirg against any extraneous light or color from the monitor being viewed through any cracks, around or under the door. The sound amplifier is similarly positioned, aud aill suunds to die iuum = conveyed thmneb The. headphom. This emsures that no airborne sounds or vibrations can be heard outside of the senders room &rough the arca around W door. Thim, anyone standing or lying outside Uir. madurs room door cannot mr. or hear Lhe displAy rn The se-oder. The skylight pictured in S's room is completely covered by an opaque duk green window shade. Additionally, new locks have been installed on S's door, widt unly ruwarch personnel actfvely involved iin ihe ongoing studies having access to the keys. Ourside well lounge window suite aw 0"c0 office office Atmird duffm sarsu.p restroom 25 mattrs offiroc -skylight 1W 4W Ufflut Office r1gure 1. Laboratory layout. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 WM A~f?ro,ed For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRG RECF-WER SENDER JMU LIEU ........... .... ............ VCR 9 r C= . ..... kJA VCR WE 7M5-) .. ........ EXPF.RIMNTER VIDEO Room ........... vidoo digital Figure 2. Audio. vfdrn, and diSRAI communications layout This design isolates the audio and video (atv) paths for S and RN to avoid introducing sensory cucs. The only direct connection between S's and R,-. atv systmus is the output of the, audio mixer intn The inpo(of the. S audio tnixer. HARDWARE The automated aan7feld system at the Koestler Chair uses the following systcm hardwuv. a 2 NFr Pr-V M- (NTSC video forMU) # 3 NTSC video raonitors (R, S, E) a 1 Teclinics steree ca=Uc Uqn! recorder (((w the mentRTion & judging) a I RcaliRtic Stereo Cassette tape recorder (for playing relaxaLion instructiows and white noisc) a 2 11ACLUPLIWIM (clip-an ft R, hFindheld Mr E) a 2 Rgalistic four-channel stereo mixers 2 Roahstic staruo auffio ainplifiorb 3 hoadpliwics 1 MJN brand 33ML-1z U0386DX computer equipped with a 210 NO fixed disk, 8 MB DRAM, four RS 232 serial ports. 80387 aunicht; uuprocessorsuper VGA munilar, and prinTer I red incandescenL bulb and flexipose lamp audio cm.-tene tape with relaxatiton iustructium% & whiEr. nniss Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT SOFTWARE The program runs under a combination of Microsoft Visual Buie 1.0 and Windows .1. 1 /DOS 5. and is passwor&d. Thu prugram pnv1uce% a daTat'lle, during each sessinin which is siored to both the hard drive and a ftoppy disk, and is sent for immediate printout to the printer a session conclusion, All ta=t priesentations. VCR video and audio Signals-. &% well am computer eraphics, are. computer-controBed. The target presentation system involves two separate NBC PCIVCR's, which are frame accurate NTSC videocassette recorders, equipped with RS 232 serial itticifaws. SECUMV MEAsum Ole Ow 4W The automated Zan7feld pio"ure developed at PR L by lionorion and Colleagues I& widely recognized as one ot the soundest methodologies in parapsychology, However, It has not ken without its criticisms. NAturally, &Uiy teplicatiua HUMPL (If COMPIrUsnufles, such as those carried out at the PRI. Laboratories, must take into account the advantages and disadvantages encounturcd in those studies, and while capiudizing on the foraket, jitubtallell pL LU eliminaw or tuinimizr dw. laurr. We have attempted to evaluate these criticisms in our own work at the Koestler Chai4 and will address those issues here. lbe, main criticisms of the earlier automated -anzfeld work (e.g., Murris. ek al, 1991) have Imen, (a) Possible subliminal sound leakage to the receiver, (b) Repeated playing of ft target tape during sending might alter it physically Such as Lo pi-ovide asubtle air, (c) Sounds from the VCR might provide cues to the experimenter about which clip was being played as target. (d) Sound leakage from the. target room to experimenter might provide cues, if sanders are noisy, (c) 11orc, could be a comp1cx clwtn)nic %ignallingsystem herween sender and receiver, ancL (1) Deliberate Mcrimenter fraud. In the cue of criticism (a), poshible subliminal sound leakage to the rccciycr, the audio systems, as well as the video systems. are elecuoniuslly 6olmed from each other. The only direct. connection between S's and Ks audio or video systems is the output of the audio mixer into the output of the S wAo mLwr. See rigurc 2. The technicians from the Elecu-onics/AudioNNual deparrmrnt AT University of Edinburgh have eler-tronicaLly checked all such connections, following recommended procedures (all sound levels at upper limit), and have verified that no such leaWr. cxisLs in uar facility. Tlww clieclLs were cnnr1nrTed prior to the beginning of the present ganzfeld study underway, and again at approximately the midway point. In response to (b), that repeatted playiiig of Oic Wgul. tair, during %endingr mighT atteA it physically such as ta pmvlde R subtle cue, our systern utilizes two Reparate tapes for sending and judging, which are housed in two separate NEC IVVCR's, and totally under computcr-controL Two separate VCR'b arc =d. and sensurially isulai W- in a.%Ww mnm away from E, in sesponse to a theoretical sensory cue (c). " sounds trom the VCR might provide- cues to the experimanter about which clip was beinA played as target. allowing E W gUt;!§S SS WUeL Clip. T'he Theoretical cue. may wnTk ar% fnlinws, it is possible, although unlikely, that by E hearing Ss VCR Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT rtswinding or fast-foTwiirdlng The vidw tape before it begins to play, that E can get a hint about which tarmet pooL and possibly which spocific target clip, the VCR is playing. Such a cut would obviously bias E Luwkuds =Wn targets Or a pflnlmilff taTEnt. F. MighT Then inadverwittly transfer tilis bias to R during the judging, process, and this is clearly unacce-ptable. Note diis witsury cue Is (mly pno-niffle if ~ E is familiar with the locations of the target pools on the video tapc, ~ E knows the order iof the clips witidu each puol. MW AW F pays attention to how long the VCK rewm& or fast-forwards, or perhaps notices the video tape counter, and, We vidim tqx always begins from themme Innation (e.g., ft always rewinds to the beginning ofthe tape at the beginning of each session). To eliminate these potential cues in our facility, we have takea die fulluwbig meps in onr pmwdure- The VCM have been placed in a separate non-adjotmq, sound attenuated room in the experimental suite. behind two doors. It has- been verifittl by rcwArcb personael dint any viduo tape moveziem sounds cannot hr heard in die experimentalsuite or in E's room. 'I'lle digital tape counters have been completely blocked from view from inside the homing of the VCR. which also efftctively jeniuves any ptoLsibillLy Of accrssinu control Of The VCR through the remote control. The tront control panels are inaccussible, being enclosed by the metal housing unit for the VC11'i. The video clips themselves am all exactly otie ruiuute long, eliminating any cunine frnm The. length of time the. c-Up is played, even if they could be heard. The order of the clips within each target pool is fixed by tho recordcd order on the video tape. but the order in wlildi dzy are played during Lhe judging pnve&s is always freshly randomized for each session. Thus, lb's that are not familiar with the order on the video tapc witl never know the actual target mquem within each pool. The sendef vi&-o LHI)e iS TIEVeT rewound Ta the tvZinning Of The Lape, but starts up where the tape stopped at the end of the lastielLsion. It has been verified by research personnel that no sound can be h=d from the video rooju. aud die computot pn)Lrram is wriurn 10 MAIM ThRT no flming cue.% (eg. tape rewind times, etc.) are available to me experimenter, thus, E cannot receive any information regarding tape movv,mcnt The R and S video tapes are locl~-ed hitu die Lwu VCR's via Lhespeclally drsigneul me.Tal Wising iudiL, with a brittle plastic security tab, eliminating the possibility that E may sweptitiously retrieve one or both of the tapes and view all of the targets to learn theii posidun via the tape. 7b1% also prevenT.; mherr forms of potential traud~ such as substituting S's actual video with a specially prepared sham tape with only one target repeatedly rccorded throughout the tape. By doing this. E could pcoduLt ftaudulem hiv; if (a) F knows how to read digital addresses on the rezi S video tape, (b) has access to another PC-VCR to dub the digital addrosses Lo the sham tape and, (c) can retrieve the sham tape wid subbti Lute the reW nne at the end of mutses%ion. Another concern we have attempted to recafy is that of (d), that sound leakage from the utrXet room to experimenter might provide cutz, if benders am n&)i%y. As was 11oLed above In the desmip0on of both the experimenter and sender's rooms, these rooms are separated by some distAnce (approximately 25 motors), and a srnall (light of stairs. In addition, we have had out racilities agousUcally rvalliamd (sDund auennatinn beTween Ss room and the foyer of the experimental suite was above 55d8 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 WAi ow VW 1W im VW VAO CPYRGHT [hun 12ITiz tin np, qnd pmsumably higher for the experimental room itsell), and veribed th&E even without headphones on, cur expedracaters could not hear shouts from the target to=. In addition. 111CLU ib W electrical sensing %y.,antit rrinnected w dr donr nf S's Yom that was designed to detect the opening of the door by activating a flashin red lisht in E's room. Consequently, if S left the room during th c experiment. E would ~isuukty bc iderted. A% an added prrcaurion, the, door into Me experime-val, foyer is kept locked during sessions. In the present study currently underway only laboratory staff am used as sendors, who all know to be 4uicL Tn the CM (if (11), MAT there, couid be a complex electronic signailing system between sender and receiver, we consulted with several security rums in out attempts toeYa)uatean-daddrcs.-;thi& Theycourninud Ona while We could conceivably do a great deal to prevent and detect. known sign&Umg systems, givea the present state of technology it would be oxtremely expensive to guud against all available tyLvs of signallift sysictus. Furthermore, ohn irrhnninfty of such signalling syqtems is rapidly expanding and any dowction systems would necwqsafily require contintios, and expensivc, upgrading. Using only laboratory staff as sender.% is one way of dildrtmAng this, as In the elpterdral sensing system mentioned above to detect any S leaving the sending room before the proper time. Them remains the possibility of U fixed monitoring system in the seadef's tootu. or munituriul or the %ender's morn hy or aemmplice. outside of the room. Our present physical circumstances make this unlikely, as the room is periodically inspected and we monitor the environment dufjIll sessiuus fur strangers. The laynat (if the mlidrr's mom Is designed to prevent any one standing or lying outside of the door to receive any visuol or auditory infonriatioc about the target clip. Additionally. such systems itivolve dic uu- operad(ul of the mcciver. We. ctrrrently use each receiver for only one session, thus meaning that any deliberate fraud by receivers would involve scvcrSJ pcopfc. The last criticism to be addressed is that u[ M. dulibemle experimenter frAud. We. advocate the use of multiple experimenten in any automated gawrelld experiments. We are cu=tly using throe main experimenters, plus four senders. All of die expedineliters ptutioulpiite m needed In the m1p asvnder, plus one other laboratory staff member. 1bus, each session will havo two members of the experimental touin involved. The automated gw&cld program recoLds ses4imi daw nut only it) Lhe hard Wive, hilt also to floppy disk. Ms floppy disk is stored in a secure location byone of the experimenters, and produced before ouh bial. immediately after each session. as soon as t1c cumpulm has recuirded the. %ewsinn as imnip7atrd, muldple copies of the session daWile am printed out. Bach experimenter receives one of them session records, and orw is included in the session file which, along with the audio tapW subject mentad(in, ir. plarrA in the unit's Security Cabinet. for mom. demB on the secunty precautions involved in accessing the Pwapsychology unit's Security Cabinm pleaso we Delaney, et al, (1993). The session recocds ou computer disL atc wiupared Lo pritimuts in the expertmenters'pomession for Wscrepwies before any data are analyze& A minimum of two experimenters arc required to sign off on the hand-writtcri rccord of the pwd;;ipaut:,i Larget responses, widub i.% theii included in thPqilhJPCT Me with dw computer priTIL-out. in addition to the above security meas-ures, we have also conducted periodic randomness checks an the program. uslag a Chi squwc Leg for numIrm mlrcred uniformly at rantInni. The Interprmation of the KING output by the program war. checked by running a series of mini-trials, using the program to gentrate requests for Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 .00 CPYRGHT largets and conditiorus, and verifying these as above. These checked were carried out prior to the current study and at intervak thmnelinut. nese were conducted not only by U experituenLem in the Parapsychology unit. but also by specialists in Artificial Tntelligence and Computer Engineering in the Psychotogy Depauncut. Randoninm checks and program interpretation were found to be within specificd parameters. low MW Exarnple of a Process-Oriented Autogamfeld ftidy The System described above can easily he tailored to prndz]CP. R VAriety Of different experimentid curididons, to explore those that work besL in general. of best for specific participant populations. Jt can also vary condWons in accordance wid) the design of process-oriented studies. Currently it 1i being used in a study to evaluate the mle of the sender. Although previous autoganzfeld research has always employed senders (Honorton, ei al. 1990). earlier Sanzfeld studies have pmduced results both with and widiouL seudeis (HunurLon, 1985). The present study employs three conditions, each with 32 participants pre selected to match the characteristics of earlier autoganzIeldsuccavw% as best we could, e.g. attiadc ur musicul Udent, positive aultude toward Psi. am so on- In two conditions, participants are introduced to a lab amociatc who is dc=lbod as a helpet who my or may not be serving as a sender. The initial preparation of the receiver proceeds as iLquaJ. When the hplper arrives at the, target room, the computer system auiduinly %altzts whether the sender stays to send or is asked to leave, and displays this decision on the monitor screea. If askedto icave, aiesender goes elsewhere In the building. To this way receiver and experimenter remain bUnd as to the sender's prawnre until the end of the.. session. In the third condition, there is always a sender and all paMes know this from the RmrL YP this way we. hope to asssess the contribution of die physical presence or the sender as well as The psychological effecEs of knowing there is a scnder. Only lab personnel are used as scaders. 7bu sLudy finishes in early June, and the basic results for each of the three conditions will be available for presentation 2t the' C(MVPntiOln. Ditcaumen In out efforts U) set up appropriae auLujunted ganifeld procedures from which to attempt replication of Honorton's successful series of ganzfeld trials, we feel we were. moderately successful. In any study undertaken in the ganzfeld the psychological comfort and weft being ofthe participant must be taken into account. In studies which do involve receivers bringing in their own sender, tor example, tho remote location of the sendees room, which 13 up a MOL of stain and down a cor;idor, may impart a sense of isolation to the sender, and a sonse of being 'cut-off' from thatsender fnr the receiver. We we no solution to this while still maintaining dw integrity of the protocol. In adaition. ftre is no direcL line-nl~Mgbt connertion with the 3cndees room for the expef inieutcr, making it Wficult for the exDertmenter to be sure that the sender does not some how do-activate the clectronic signalling device an the dnor and leave the sending room, possibly in some attempt to t.viamunicate with the r=lver. We have chogen nrit M monitor the sender and receiver rooms via camcras as this caui give Trdrticipants the feeling that 'big bmihefz Lwatching'thom, making them feel uncomfortable and Self-conscious. Hunortm himself cantioned against the use of cameras inside the sender/receiver rooms Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 CPYRGHT (Honormn, 1992). Additional sw-urity measures am being developed which address ft psychological comfort of the involved paites while ensuring that a high level 0" experi=ntal protocol is met. There are many factors that come into play vAthin a laboratory experimental situatton that am never covered in the protocol dpftned to that describe that VIOWLIUM. FoE uxample, some pardcipanEs may not complete 0 of their forms before arrival for the session, and may thus be asked to compleW thow at the lab upun arrival, immediately prior to the ganzfeld se&ion itself. Tf, in fact, a -study produces signi ticant rpquIls, and inch participants are Smong those scoring a large proportion of hits, does Uds.mean that It is beneficW to have participants fi I I out form.% in the laboratory because this in some way Allow them Lu Ucuume IdbiLUUMd' to EhC!r surrounding, and thus moro comfortable with the experimental 3intation? Or i3 it more related to the personality type that puts off completing things, such as forms, unLU The last moment? If the reverse is true, and the%r particulfir participants score. lowor duin wuuld normally be expected, Was it because being asked to fill out forms in ffic laboratory sitting, possibility causing A sense of 'making eyeiyune wait on them', made them more self- conscious and thus less like to be open and receptive? Or, aBnin, would this more likely be related to a personality correlate, such as mentioned above? What are the 'magic' experimentertsubject interactinns that arr. most likely to help both cxtruvem% und introverts to feel more comfortable in the laboratory setting? What types of 'magic' words could be incorporated into pro- session chat that would Fwilitate the participants performarice? Are the slight variations in presentation of the pn7feld rxpmience to receivers between experimentets twuugh tu influence the participants reaction to that experience? Are there gender pairings within experimenter pairs that would ptovu Luore cunduuive than others? Are men more comfortable with male experimenters, and women more comfortahle wfth firmale Ptiperimentez-0 Or do both sexes rind it emief toopen up' Lu an experimenter of the opposite sex? It is our view that in W face of the variability of social and psychological factors, that these questions involve, the physical environruent, of the paKicipant should be held as constant, and w-cnre is possible to aid in our understoding of psi phenomena, Wo du w1aiuwludXe that there is no such thing as a single absolutely fraud proof expefiracrit and would not daim otherwise. Mwever, ft is v1W that experimental protocol that provides a high measure of security be coupled with the type of warm. encouraging and Miandly environment that psi seems to demand. Tin this WaY all wdes tvn=nt:d can proceed CoMformbly with Me hwanems of Ming rescarch and lczLrning from each smsion. Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RD'P96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 OW Referearp Delanoy, D., Morris, R. L., Watt, C., WLseman, R. (1993). A LIOW LLIWIlOdOlOgY fur free-response testing outwith the laboratory: Findings from cxperienced MW pafficipant paper prewinted at the. 36th Annaal Convention of the Parapsychological Association, August D-19.1993,110tonin, rRnidg. Honorton, C. (1985). Meta-analysis of psi ganzfeld research: A response to Hyman joaMal 4EMachplM, 49, pp. 51 - 9 1. Hunuitun, C. (1992). Personal communicadon. Hononon, C., Berger, R., Varvoglis, M., Quant, M., Derr, P., Schecter, E., and Ferran, 1). (1990). Psi communication in the g2n!7foJd: Experiments with an automated tosting System and a compWison with a meta-analysis of earlier studie& Journal gj PM)Mhuluml, 54, pp. 99 - 139. AftcKen4e, D. (1992). Attenuatinn of airhnme sound between mst room& within the Depatuiiew ur Psychology, Edinburgh University. Tierioi,-Watt University Report No. 003/92, July 13, 1992. Morris, & L G Y97). Minimising subjcct fraud in parapsychology laboratories. Eurtmean Immal of Paraasychal= 6. pp. 137 - 149. Morris, R. L, Taylor, R., Cunningham, S., McAlpine, S. (1993). Towacd ieplication and extensinn nr autogmufeld results. Paper presented to the 3ft Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Avem."ation, Toronto, Canada, August 15 -19,1993. Palmer, J. A. (1977). Attitudes and personality tmit3 in expcrimenW ESP Tcscarch. In B. b. WoLman (Ed.). fland-hook of F=Lsxdojgz'y, pp. 175 - 201. Now York: Van Nostrand Reinhold. Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 UW SAIC FINAL REPORT 10 40 Project No. 93 - DAN 75 Ganzfeld Experiment Prepared by: Robert L Morris Psychology Department University of Edinburgh Im This project report describes the completion of Task 3, the conductance of an experimental study comparing sondcr and non-sender conditions using an automated ganzfeld testing procedure. Development of an appropriate 00 experimental protocol and the cmductance of pilot studies has been described in reports submitted earlier. Attached is a separate document recently prepared by TCRthy Dalltnn Find rmyself describing in detail the steps taken to develop the a6 system we used in this study. to answer the reasonable questinng rai qAd hy critics about earlier automated ganzfeld procedures. - a aw x1thQ& 1). The main conditions and rationale. There are three conditions; no sender absent, with receiver blind as to sendcr's presence or absence; sender present, with receiver blind as to sender's presence or absenec; and sender MW pri-Rent, with receiver and experimenter aware of sendei?s presence. The first two conditions are dt--.;igmF.,d to provide a tidy comparison of presence and absence of sender. Expectation is thp luime for both conditions as no one is MW aware of which condition will be used until the receiver preparation is completed and the twssion underway. At that time. the sender enters the target room and is informed by the computer wheLher Lu uWy and send or leave the target room. Experimenter and receiver do not leara wheLher ur nut the sender stayed and was active until the session is over and the blind is broken. The third condition is included to enable us to examine the rolo of expectation, and to prnvide R mndiffion which more closely replicates the original autoganzfeld procedures. Every third Fi4lission is in Condition 3; the others are randomly assigned by the computer aystem ENG to Condition 1 nr 2. The study reported here was terminated after 72 sessions, to enable the final repnrt tn hp j;iihmitted low Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 low Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 by, the deadline. Further sessions will be conducted, however, until at least 32 have. been conducted under each condition. 2). Participant population Our participants have been recruited from the local artistic community, including musicians, visual artists, writers, actors and dancers, primarily the first two categories. Many were students from local art schools or the Reid School of Music, as well as other local individuals with creative skills who had contacted us through word of mouth, or having aeon a poster, or having taken evening courses with us. All were selected to have a positive attitude toward the topic and to have had at least one experience that they felt might have been psychic in nature. Of the 72 participants, 34 were inaler. and 38 were. females. Ages ranged fimm 17 to 61, with most in their earty and mid 20's. Although the earlier granffeld participants were on average over ten years older. the highly successful Julliard series as well as the successful Cunnin am pilot study completed in Edinburgh in winter of 1993 both drew froin cruative Uudeul. pupulations. 3). Targets All targets were drawn from eighteen target pools of four targets each. All were dynamic film clips lasting sixty seconds each, a blend of tanats from the earlier pools used in the Honorton autoganzfeld series, as well as new material selected and edited by ourselves and described in an earlier report. 4). Physical Environment. All sessions have been conducted in the suite of -rooms plus target room that have been previously prepared and woo acoustically tested, iw dt%Lribed in a previous report and in the accompanying Dalton report, The target room is 25 meters from the recelvur'b roum and the recelve?s rooza is acoustically shielded. 5). Measures of individual differences. All potential participants filled out a 72-item Personal Information Form (PIP) modelled after the one used in Hnnortnn'Ft PRychophysical Research Laboratories. Those selected to participate also completed the NF,'O Ppnona lity Inventory; plus a six-item open. ended creativity questionnaire. The NEO has five ArRlpq- Neu'roticis3n, moo Extravertsion, Openness, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness. Each has six subscales. 6). Procedure. The procedure is at; described earlier. Participsuas are met by the member of staff serving as experimenter (E) and taken to a greeting room within our suite of rooms. Any quastionnaires remaining to be Filled out and/or collected are taken rarp nf The member of staff serving as sender (S) is introduced and participates in an infonnal ehFit followed by explanation of the prucedure by E. S explains the targets and target room, and takes a more active role uuder Lhe Honorton Replication Condition. noting that they will aw 2 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 am NNW Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 definitely be sending. The participant (P) is then shown the Target Room and further explanation given by S. In the Sender/No Sender condition, P is told thAt, WP eXpACtA11CCAAA either way. P iA then Ahnwn Es room and taken to the. Ganzfeld room itself, where P settles in to a comfortable reclining chair. Further instructions are given by E, the microphone and headphones are OW attached (checked by P for comfort of sound level), and the eye shields are attached. r, and S give final words of encouragement to P, and then depart. OW S proceeds to the target room. If in the Sender/No Sender Condition, 8 waits until the computer system randomly determines which of the two it is and asks S on the video screen either to reinain and send or leave the room. If the latter, aw 8 Zoes Woewhere. and ongages in some quiet activity. If S is actuaUy sending, then S reclines in a comfortable chair. dons headphones and goes through the NOW relaxation procedure that P is experiencing. The sending period follows next, rur just, under a half hour. During this time S watches a minute-long Eam clip that has jusL been randomly iselected by the computer system. It is shown eight No times, with approximately two minute !nLervals in beLween. 8 becomes absorbed in the contents of the clip and may draw scones from the clip to facilitate focussing on it. S can hear P's Impressions and may attempt to reinforce mentally those impressions that seem to be accurate. S can hear anything that P says, during both the sending period and the judging procedure thRtfollow& OrcAjudgingis completed and the data entered into the computer, S rejoins E and P in the experimental Ftiiite to di scu so the session. Meanwhile, once E and S have left P. E goes to the experimenter room and plays a 18-minute relaxation Lupo that is heard by both P and 8 (if there is an S for that isassion). Following this, P hears white noise and attempts to gain impressions of the target film, P has been encouraged to speak out loud any impressions, or other mentation that occurs during this time. All such mentations as well as the judging process arc tape recorded for future rafArpnee, E can hear P and write down as much of P's description as possible, At the end of the impresrion period (Aarne ar, the sending period) if there is an 8). E asks P how long the period seemed to la-;t, and then reads aloud P's impressions, to remind P and to allow P the opportunity to f4ahnrate. V then asks P several quesLions about their impressions, e.g. any that were surprising, vivid, unusual, or frequent, asks whetlaw P felt there was a sander, and asks for an estimate of how deeply into an altered state P felt they had been. E also rates Ps impressions for abundance, amount of cognitive references, proportion of impressions that is judgaablo, bizarreness of i=pressions, lability of imprAr,tAian s and E's own expectation of success. Then P is asked to remove the eye shieldst and turn on the. TV monitor in their room. The Lumputer then displays all four 111m clips in the judging pool, to E an E's monitor and to P on P's monitor. E and P discuss the four clips, with P Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Now Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 'MW noting any correspondences and 9 then suggesting for PS consideration any UN additional possible. corresponde=es that E noticed but P did not mention. P can review each clip a(4 aftan aA deAirpd. P then ratp.Ft All fni-ir clipik froyn one tn 99, doublechecks them, and E enters those ratings into the computer data disk. E UP also rates AU four clips without telling P. and enters those into the computer as well. Once the data are stored, the computer reveals the correct target and prints out foux copies of the data for the sewion, including all the conditions, the judgings and the target identity. Thus the data are stored permanently both on disk and on immediately generated multiple hard copies. E, P and S convene at tba and of the session (even if there was no Bender) to discuss how it went. 7). Results At present, 72 trials have been completed, 24 in the Replication Condition. 25 m Send and 28 in No Send. The results for direct hits as rated by the participants were as follows: Overall, 32% hits, p=.112, h=.15- ReplicaLiun, 37.5% hits, P-121, h-.27- Send, 20% hits, p=.58, hn.02; and ~o Send, 32% bitti, P=.273, h--1 6. Although not statistically significant, these results are encouraging. The Replication Condition results are comparable in percent hits and effect isize to the earlier Honorton work with Dynamic Targets (40% hits, hm,82). Our Sender - No Sender Conditions differed from his conditions, so it is difficult to draw direct comparisons. In general, our overall results compared favourably with his overall resnilti; (.U% hitA, h=.20). Thus, with even tighter conditions, we still appear to be obtaining the ganzfeld effect although at this stage not quite so strongly as Honorton!s group. Strength of results did not differ significantly among the Lbree isending conditions either by direct hit or svm of ranks measures, For boLh nwasures Lhe Replication Condition (sender known by all to be present) had the beat results but by a slander margin, with the No Sender Condition next best by direct hit tally and Sender next best by sum of ranks. With larger N these small differences might become mpaningful. or might disappear entirely, A second component of our analysis was to compare the Send - Nn Send direct hit isessions tu isee if there was any indication that any Information coming through would do so ia differenl, ways. As described earlier, certain assesamenta of the characteristics of the session by P or E were gathered after the impression period was over but before the judging period began. Two em rged as significant or nearly to. P's were asked to estimate the duration of the impression parlod. When the sender Was PTOBOnt, P's catimatod duration was 24.17 minutes on avprsige; when there was no sender, the estimate war, only 12-19 seconds (.U=S, p<00.5, 2-tail). Thus when there waa no sender, P's felt theLims had passed more quicklv. Additionally, E rated each seagion aq to how mundane or bizarre the impression had seemed to them, with respect to 4 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 am Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Nei gaumfold sessions in general, on a seven-point scale. When sender was present, E rated the bizarreness at 2.5 on average; when sander was absent, E rated MW bizarrenAAA higher, Rt.9.38 on average.. (Um9, po.06- Mail)- Thus the absence of the sander seemed to allnw Tnnre unmaial or idiosyncratic imagery to come 46 through, With regard to other measures, E's rating of the lability of impressions was nonsignificantly higher in the absence of the sender, E's rating of mentation abundance was nuubiguificantly lower in the absence of the 04 sender; and Va rating of depth of state achieved was essenUally the same whether or not thee was a sander. Finally we had asked P to cow alelLt Un whether or not they felt a sender had actually been present during the session. No Results were right at chance both when sander was present and not present. Discusliian am The above findings suggest that we are obtaining an affect with niir autogaii4eld procedure, despite having taken various measures to tighten the procedure over those used in previous resear& There iis evidence as well that when the sender is present the participant subjectively feels that the experience is lasting longer and there is more mundane mentation reported, There is also very weak evidence that when sender is present the impressions are more abitindant and the themes are more consistent, loss labile. Combining those themPA, it may be that when interactive with a sander, more information comoG Into awareness but it tandF; M 'have a greater component of safe, cohesive, business as usual imagery. which is added on and may make thp Asrtaior seem longer. IT there is no sender, at some level one is freer to be off on one's own and let fresh and unusual impreasions emerge mure naturally. Further data are needed to examine these trendis in more detail, The present series will be extended through 96 sessions, ending in mid-June, at which time the exiisting trends will be reanalyzed and a A211or analysis done of the data as a whole, including an a-raynination of individual differences carrelates both overall and within each condibon. Erperimenter ratings will be d0i analysed descriptively as well; at present E ratings appear slightly Tnnrp. positive than P ratiage, but are not included here as they were not part of a proplanned analysis. More detailed examination uf the mentation reports under do the throe conditione will also be done. A followup study building on these findings is intended, resources permitting. We will also be exploring uertain modifications of the technique to streamline it and facilitate replication No attempts hy nther researchers, such as shortening the montation. period and modifying the blind judging protocol. We continue to be impressed by the ganzfeld as a technique for producing reamn H In ly consistent oftcts, but it i e OM labour4utensive and somewhat expensive to do with prnpAr safeguards, am 5 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Ow SG1A Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1 Next 18 Page(s) In Document Exempt Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00787ROO0300270001-1