IN, z// /I f,- 'I / I r ase bod/'A/bi' 614l4bP96-00788RO01 200110002-6 Approved Fork61e ~ 2' :11 01 Z JUL 78 FROM IfQ WPAFB f)ll./TQTR TO: SSO ACS1 DA INFO IIQ USAF WASH DC/-fNA S E C R E T S I J BJE, C', TSP,,:CIAL ANALYSIS STU)Y (U) REFERENC'-,': ACSI M,iG,, DID 262015Z JUN 78 1. (U) PASS 'fO MAJ STONER (ACSI): LTC M BLOOM (USAF/INYS) 2. (C) TBIS MESSACE IS IN RESPONSE TO COM MENTS REQUE'STED IN THE REFERENCED MESSAGE RELATINc'.;'~ TO PARAPHYSICS TOPICS. REPLY HAS BEEN LIMITED TO THOSE QUES,71ONS RELEVANT TO "WTD'S PROGRP-m WITH THE STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE (SRI). 3. (S) PAST., PRESENT AND FUTURE PLANS: -- A. FTD'S PREVIOUS EFFORT IN THIS AREA 01' INVESTIGATION ItAS.BEEN PREVIOUSLY SUPPLIED IN THE FY77 FINAL REPORT TITLED ADVANCED THREAT TECHNIQUE ASSESSMENT (SRI 7-4375). A FINAL REPORT ON RECENT WORK WILL BE AVAILABLE BY THE END OF JULY AND WILL BE PROVIDED AT THAT TIME. B. PT PRESENT. FTD PLANS TO PURSUE THOSE BASIC OBJECTIVES OUTLINEij III 1.11E REFERENDED WORK STATEMENT (PARA__I_) MAIN ORIENTATION IS TO EVALUATE (YR. SIMULATE USSR RESEARCH ACHIEVEMENTS (OR CLAIMS-,),, AND TO EXAMINE FEASIBILITY OF 00MMUNICATION AND REMOTE V IEW ItIG POTENT71 AL. '.,'COHERE IS NO INTENT IN, THE ftD - PROCRAM Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-0078BROO1200110002-6 TO PURSUE RESEARCH NOR TO ATTEMPT DEVELOP- MENT OF SPI,'CIFIC APPLICATIONS. FTDS CURRENT CONTRACT WITH THE STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUTE EXTENDS THROUGH MAY 1979. C. FTD HAS SUPPORTED THESE BASIC INVESTIGATIONS WITH THE STANFORD RESEARCH INSTITUrfE (SRI) SINCE 1976. SRI'S WORK TO DATE HAS GREATLY BENEFITED FTD'S ASSESSMENT OF WARSAW PACT RESEARCH IN THIS AREA" BOTH IN EVALUATING ASPECTS OF FOREIGN RESEARCH DATA2 AND IN PROVIDING INSIGHT INTO THIS FIELD IN GENERAL. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLEAR NEED FOR FTb TO CONT1WJE SUCH SUPPORT TO SRI IN THE FUTUREk HOWEVER,, FTD MAY ELECT TO SUPPORT OTHER ASPECTS OF PARAPHYSICS INVESTIGATIONS WITH OTHER LABORATORIES. SUCH SUPPORT COULD POTENTIALLY BE ~20 EVALUATE ENERGETICS-TYPE 0WEfft1*N,CE AND RELATED PHYSIOLOGICAL ISSUES ("FFECT CF MAGNETIC FIELD5)OR LOW FREQUENCY FIELDS.9 ETC.) WHERE ASSISTANCE IN, EVALUATING THE USSR RESEARCH WOULD BE REQUIRED. 4. (S) WORK STATEMENT: FTD'S WORK STATEMENT TO SRI, TITLED "ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT., IS SUMMARIZED AS FOLLOWS: A. PURPOSE: B. BACKGROUND: C. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Approved For Release 2000108/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08107 i,4CIA~RDP96-0078BROO1200110002-6 'A" Purchas~e equest U ITLE N ,/As s e s' Advallce(~Icchnol o Assessment -0- (S) PURPOSE To provide a basis for assessing application potential of an advanced technolooy that is assessed to be under developi-iient in th2, USSR. This study ~"'ould assist in FTD's evaluation of relevent intelligenco data, would help identify key development trends and technical parameters, and would help in assessing feasibility of particular advanced threat related appl i cati oils. --a-.-0 (S) BACKGROUND: A cont'ouing technical intlelligence responsibility for FTD is to provide intclli~ence consuir 'ors, and US R/D COIISUM-ers, mith tile highest quality assc~,-'w,~nt of USSR capabilities in various threat areas, especially in advanced technoloaic!s that could ev~,ntually lead to future technological surprise. These potential threats could be based on conventional techno- logy with unique applications, or on totally new or noval techniques th,at could be at the frontiers of tcchnolcgical art-state. This study %'*Uld fill a critical gap in tile Lihelerstanding and assessment of application feasibility of a potcntial advancod th-eat. This effort would directly support FTD's continuing eValUatiC.,-i for a new DIA threat study (Paraphysics R/0-41arsaw Pa,.-.t), and would support certain advanced communication and advancect sensor assessments ill general, (S) Al"WATICAL APPPOACH: 0~ 4 .1 The contractor will develop theoretical models, perform appro,wi~te Aechnical analysis, and provide capability assessments based on appropr'iate investigation and experip,',4ntal procedures. ( -t- ~ 4.'2 Contractor assessments will emphasize the particular advanced pqra- Physics technology having military potential. The assessment will examine numerous -variables that kave an influence on biases, reliability and aCCLWaCY. Basic investigations in this general topic will address advanced cormunica- tion po"Gential, and advanced remote sonsor potential. The contractcr shall devel () 1) an appropriate theoretical basiz, that provides insight on Possibic counterr.)eaSUres. Theroetical investigations shall be direcied 111-m:ard resolu- tion of probable paraphy-_~;cs transm,,ission ln,estio,ations involving use of shielded facMties should assist in evaluating electron- 'agnetic asp2ct'ls (e.g.' ill the ELF region). Other investigations based on holographic niodels shall also be considered. 1,2 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Study findings that indicate feasibility of various potential L applications, or that provide ijjSiqlj t into theoretical models, should be made available to FTD or soon as posftle. Evaluation of reSults 'rom, C-Ipplica- tion investigations i-J11 be performed by FTD according to r,,utually accei)tablp protocol and Le included as part of tlie final report. The rcntractor .,,ill alse develop aPproPriate statistical methods for as'sessing deciree of success of such experimemlal invi2sti(,,ations. Th(,sc- wcthodolo~jies would also be applicable to assessing similar investi~itions report~,d in the foreign literature. 4.4 AII significant-details of contractor stud'v scope, planning, proposed analyses technique, Proposed evaluation protocol and procedures, and personnel inVOIVCd Will bE~ eValUdted by FTD. Should any unforeseen deviation occur, FTD will be notified iri-lmediately. Ch,a)i9es in ~-.,ork priority may be directed by FTD at any tivic during the contrack.~ual year should such action be considered necessary. Additional details on study objectives, procedures, and other details wre included in a,separate detailed task work statenlent. - -CLEAMICE ~TX)UMEIHIENTS .0 ,0 5.1 Per rine Toop !S r t. c 5.2 torage Capabili Secret., y 6. REPOl' "S PT'QLJILR~D: 6.1 Outline Pf propoped study. 6.2 Prolimi4ry draft of study. 6.31 Draft co,% of study. ~.4 Final re) rt. SG1J 7.0 2 ~LE j. Q Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 5. (S) 1N-11OUSE RESEARCH A. THERE COULD BE SEVERAL ADVANTAGES TO PURSUING IN-HOUSE 0 RESEARCH, DEPENDING ON ITS SPECIFIC qk~NTAaION. IT MAY BE FOSSIBLE SOMt GOVERNMEAO.' 1.i'ACU~f.'PCEN 4'ilcll LS APPROPRIATE FOF EVALUATING AND IDENTIFYING PHYSIOLOGICAL AFUNCTIONING; OR THAI SOME FACILIT:.ES HAVE EQUIPMENT SUITABLE FOR RESOLVING (IN PART) CERTAIN THEORETICAL ISSUES. LABORATORIES WITH EEC EQUIPMENT (OR OTHER PHYSICLOGICAL INSTRUMENTS) AND. ELECTROMAGNET'J'L'CALLY SHIELDED ROOMS, COULD POTENTIALLY ASSIST IN RESEARCH ON SOME ISSUES. IN ADDITION) LABORATORIES WITH SIMILAR EQUIPMENT MIGHT EXIST IN THE VARIOUS SERVICES, WHIGH %COULD FACILITATE EXPERIMENTS WHERE INFLUENCE OF DISTANCE IS TO BE EXAMINED. THERE ARE NUMEROUS POSSIBILITIES; THESE ARE BUT A FE EXAMPLES. B. ANOTHER ADVANTAGE OF IN-HOUSE RESEARCI; WOULD BE IN PURSUIT OF PARTICULAR APPLICATIONS AND IN SELECTION OF SUBJECTS. IT MAY BE THAT PEOPLE WHO CAN PERFORM WELL IN CERTAIN PSYCHOENERGETIC TASKS (SUBJECTS) ARE ALREADY EMPLOYED WITHIN GOVERNMENT FACILITIES. DRAWING ON SUCH AVAILABLE RESOURCES COULD SIMPLIFY SUEJECT RECRUITMENT ANDALSO ENIIANCE SECURITY ASPECTS, ESPECIALLY IF THE SUBJECTS HAVE SOME LEVEL OF CLEARANOE. C. IN ADDITION, PURSU~ OF CKRTAIN TYPES OF APPLICATIONS MIO~-"_ BEST BE PERFORMED IN-HOUSE BY A GOVERNMENT AGENCY. COWTNICAT'~"" Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 00110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00788ROO12 MODES1 FOR EXAMPLE,, MAY REQUIRE A COMMITTMENT WHERE THE SAME SUBJECTS WORK TOGETHER FOR A LONG TIME PERTOD. ALSO) CERTAIN APPLICATIONS, INVOLVINC INFORMATION ACCESS APPLICATIONS, ALSO APPEAR TO REQUIRE A LONG-i'-,,RM COMMITTMENT. THIS MAY BE DIFFICULT TO AQtEVE (ANP.CON-'.'ROL) VIA EXTERNAL SOURCES. D. DOWEVER, DUE TO THE SENSATIONAI, NATURE OF THIS AREA OF RESEARCH THERE ARE AtSO SOME DISADVANTAGESCONSIDERABLE EFFORT WOULD BE REQUIRED IN KEEPING EVEN THE~ KNOWLEDGE ABOUT POTENTIAL IN-HOUSE ACTIVITY UNDER TIGHT CONTROL. THIS'WOULD ALSO BE TRUE FOR ANY EXTENSIVE EXTERNAL RESEARCH. ONE APPROACH MIGHT BE TO OPENLY ACKNOWLEDGE THAT SOMf 3F THIS RESEARCH IS BEING PURSUED. THIS RESEARCH COULD CERTAINLY BE QUALIFIED AND PRESENTED Af IN THE CONTEXTAfEXPLOTATORY OR BASIC RESEARCHt)AND IN TIME ITS SENSATIONAL TREATMENT WOULD VERY LIKELY LESSEN. E. IN SUMMATION, IT APPEARS ASPECTS OF THIS RESEARCH MIGHT BE AMEANABLE FOR IN-HOUSE INVESTIGATIONS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A JOINT-SERVICE OR DOD-WIDE EFFORT COULD BE ULTIMATELY INVOLVED. 6. (S) PROPOSED RESEARCH APPROACH A. PARTICULAR RESEARCH APPRUCHES IN PSYCHOENERGETICS WOULD DEPEND UKPON THE MAIN OBJECTIVES. THERE ARE AT LEAST THREE BASIC RESEARCH DIRECTIONS; THAT WHICH PURSUES APPLICATIONS; THAT DIRECTED TOWARD UNDERSTANDING OF THZ8 PHYSICAL BASIS FOR THE PHENOMENA; AND THAT ORIENTED TOWARD P11YSIOLOGICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL ISSUES. ALL THESE OVE.ZLAP,, HOWEVER,, AND CANNOT BE READILY SEPARATED. RFSOJ~!'--" Approved For Release 2000108107 : CIA-RE)P96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 OF THEORE'TICAL AND PSYC11OLOCICAL ISSUES COULD ENHANCE APPLICATION (I.E., IMPROVE RELIABILITY, REPEA'L'ABILITY); PURSUIT OF' SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS COULD A1,SO ADD INSIGHT ON SOME THEORETICAL ISSUES# ,ii~ ~- IT MAY BE A WIDE VARIETY OF EXPERIMENTS NEED TO BE CONDUCTED IN ORDER TO EXAMINE AS MANY VARIABLES AS POSSIBLE. IT ALSO APPEARS BOTH THE INFORMATIONAL ASPECTS AND THE ENERGETIC ASPECTS BE PURSUED2 SINCE THE UNDERLYING PRINCIILES MAY BE THE SAME FOR BOTH TYPES OF PHENOMENA. B. REGARDLESS OF &%OMM RESEARCH DIRECTIONS,- SPECIFIC RESEARCH Sh%0ULD BE BASED ON SOU&D SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGIES. rf-~:M*4t~l--APPROPRIATE EVALAUTION METHODS ARE ALSO REQUIRED SO THAT RESULTS OF TRIS RESEARCH CAN BE EVALUATED PROPERLY', C. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PEQUIREMENT OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO ESTABLISHAPOOL OF SUBJECTS THAT ARE CONSISTANT HIGH PERFORMERS AT A VARIETY OF PARANO'RhAL TASKS, CTHERWISE, YOST EXPERIMENTS WOULD YIELD RESULTS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY GREATER TH.All CHANCE, AND UNDERLYING PRINCIPLES COULD NOT BE IDENTIFIED. WITH HIGH PERFORMING SUBJECTS., EFFECTS CP MANY TEST VARIABLES (PHYSICAL,, PSYCHOLOGICAL,, ETC) COULD BE STUDIEJ IN A CONSISTANT MANNER. METHODS FOR TRAINING AND ENHANCING PERFORMANCE SHOULD AtSO BE INVESTIACTED SINCE THIS SPt*Kl-;~ 1"D TO BET*TFR Ullfbi~X-STAil(f)J!,W, 01F TOY, Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 ved For Release 2000108/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 D. THERE ARE MANY TUEORETICAL, ISSUES THAT COULD BE EXAMINED2 AND NmEROuS EXPERIMENTS COITLD BE CONDUCTED THAT' MIGHT INDICATE THE PHYSICAL BASIS OF THIS 11HENOMENA. tXPE1RIMENTS FOR RESOLVING 4 THE PHENOMENA IS ELECTORMkGNETIC IN NATURE COULD INVOLVE SUBMARINE OR SPACE PLATFORMS, OR EXPERIMENT,~,' CONDUCTED IN PRESENCE OF APPROPRIATE NOISE. EXPERIMENTS TO DETERMINE HOW SMALL TARGETS CAN BE ALSO IMPACj ON THE ELECTROMAGNETICS ISSOZA (DATA RATE OR RESOLUTION) ATTEM?TS TO INFLUENCE SENSITIVE EQUIPMENT (FILM, LIQUID CRYSTALS2 IIAGNETOMETERS, OTHER) COULD ALSO HELP IDENTIFY BASIC MECHANISMS (DIRECT OR INDIRECT). EXPERIMENTS TO IV C2 110,eo"Va TEST GRAVITATIONAL MODELS, NEUTRION MODELS 3~ OR VARIOUS QUANTUM MECHANICAL MODELS COULD ALSO BE Gw&kftwjaKD. E. OTHER FACTORS OF IMPORTANCE ARE EFFECT OF TARGET SIZE AND DISTANCE FROM THE SUBJECT. SUCH EXPER11VIENTS COULD IND16ATE ACCURACY LIMITS,, IF ANY. ANOTHER ISSUE TO RESOLVE IS THE ROLE OF OTHER PEOPLE IN AN EXPERIMENTAL SETTING., AdM PARTICULARLY,.,.~~~ 4V WHEN IN INTENDED TARGET MATERIAL IS NOT KNOWN BY ANYONE. THIS LATTER CASE APPLIES TO HIDDEN TARGETS OR POSSIBLY TO TARGETS OUT OF PROEER TIME SEQUENCE (MR; PRECOGNITION). F. OTHER SUCGEST']-.'ONS FOR RESEARCH HAVE ALREADY BEEN PROVIDED TO YOUR OFF11CE (FTD MSG DTD 051644Z.,~FUN 78). ADDITIONAL VIEWS CAN BE Approved For Release 2000/08/07 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000/08/07 CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 PROVIDED IF DESIRED. (S) DEMONSTRATION FOR DR LABE-~,GE. IT IS HIGHLY RECOMME NDED 'I'HAT DR LABERCE OBSER'VE A DEMONSTR,~TION OF A REMOTE VIEWING EXPERIMENT. "i'HIS WILL ACCUAINT 11IMi WITH EXPERIMENTAL PROTOCALL AND PROVIDE AN 1,11PRECIATION FOR HOW TRIS MODE IS PRECEIVED BY THE SUBJECTS. SUGGEST SEVERAL EXPERIMENTS INVOLVING THOSE THE SUBJECT IS %.DMFORTABLE WITH., AS WELL AS SOME DEFINED AND CONTROLLED BY G, DR LABERGE. THESE COULD INVOLVE EXPERIMENTS WITH DR LABERS IN THE WASHINGTON AREA AND SUBJECT5'EL3'ZWHERE. 8. (S) EXPERIMENTS TO DETERMINE PRESENCE OR ,BSENCE OR MISSILES IN SILOS. A. THIS TYPE OF EXPERIMENT IS SIMPLER IN PRINCIPLE THAN 0-4 01 EXPERIMENTS.WIIER.E EXTENSIVE.DETAIL M RELATIVE SPATIt=L RELATION- A SHIPS ARE DESIRED. IDENTIFYING PRESENCE OR ABSENCE OR TARGET AREA ELEMENTS HAS BEEN EXAMINED IN THE FTD PROGRAM. IN THESE EXPERIMENTS THE OBJECTIVE 14AS TO EVALUTE FEASIBILITY OF USING REMOTE VIEWING IN A BASIC COIERZTICATION MODE, WITH BASIC MESSAGES PRE-RESABLISHED FOR EACH TAEGET AREA CATAGORY (OR DICHOTOMY). RESULTS WERE EN- COURAGING AND SUGGESIED THIS COLD BE A VIABLE APPLICATION. ANOTHER SERIES OF EXPERIMENTS EXAMINED FEASIBILITY OF DETERMINING PRESENCE OR'ABSENCE OF "EVENTS". A MINUTEMAN STAGE I STATIC-TEST E~ENT WAS THE,DESIRED TARGET. RESULTS WERE ALSO ENCOURAGING IN T'JAT AN EVENT WAS SENSED AT THE APPUOPRIATE TIIJE, ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC Approved For Release 2000108107 : CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 Approved For Release 2000108107 CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6 NATURE OF THE EVENT COULD NOT BE DETERMINED.BY THE SUBJECT.' B. IF THEREFORE APPEARS THAT EXPERIMENTS TO DETERMINE PRESENCE 1 0 c ?"eA , OR ABSENCE OF. MISSILES IN A SILO, FOR EXAMPLE., COULD BE AT--T9*Psf+,D. HOWEVER, THE METHOD USED FOR LOCATING THE INTEND.-ID TARGET AREA MIGHT tS"O"E SOME DIFFICULTY. PRELIMINARY EXPERIMENTS, USING SIMILAR ACCESSABLE TARGETS (EMPTY OR FULL FUEL CCNTAINERS:~ ETC) SHOULD 0 BE PURSUED TO EVALUATE BASIC POTENTIAL OF THIS APPLICATION OBJECTIVE. otj SUBSEQUEN'.~` EXPERIMENTS TO RESOLVE THE LOCATOR PROBLEM FOR ACTUAL TARGETS COULD THEN BE ATTEMPTED,, PERHAPS USING-A4P=-L- US SILOS AS TARGETS. THE USE OF AERUL PHOTOS,, OR COORDINATES.,MIGHT BE METHODS EMPLOYED FOR, TARGE~~NG ON REMOTE SILOS. A XCDS-2 DEC 08 DRAFTED BY TQTR, 76351) 10 JULY 1978 SG1J Approved For Release 2000/08/07: CIA-RDP96-00788ROO1200110002-6