How to Strike Back.? The evidence suggests that Iranian-backed fanatics carried out the attack, but retaliation will be difficult. hose who directed this atrocity must be Tdealt justice, and they will be," Ronald Reagan swore last week, but there was a problem: the United States still lacked hard evidence on just who carried out the truck- bomb attack in Beirut. At best, the adminis- tration had a strong circumstantial case suggesting an Iranian-and possibly Syr- ian-connection in the simultaneous as- saults against the Marines and French peacekeepers. In particular, U.S. and French intelligence analysts focused their investigation on a small group of Shiite Muslim extremists with close ties to Iranian militants in Baalbek, in eastern Lebanon. The thirst for vengeance was palpable. At the White House, the Pentagon and State Department, officials were considering a number of possible retaliatory measures, including a surgical air strike against the Muslim extremists in Baalbek and retali- ation "in kind" by couliterterrorist hit teams. But any method of retaliation car- ried risks. Some administration officials feared that an air strike could cause civilian casualties-and an anti-American outcry. U.S. intelligence agents have pinpointed an Iranian military headquarters in the Syrian village of Zebdani, near the Lebanese bor- der. But even if Iranian officers were in- volved in the attack on the Marines, an air strike against their outpost in Syrian terri- tory could have major international reper- cussions. Antiterrorist operations-"hav- ing a building collapse mysteriously in the middle of the night," as one official put it- would carry a clear message to the other side while avoiding a conspicuous use of U.S. military might. But if Washington re- taliated before positively identifying the perpetrators and ordered a counterblow that killed the wrong people, the resulting political furor would further damage U.S, interests in the area. Prime Suspect: Some intelligence sources consider Hussein Musavi-a 40-year-old former teacher who heads a pro-Iranian organization called Islamic Amal-to be a prime suspect in the bombing. Musavi and his small band of fundamentalist followers split off two years ago from Amal, the main militia group of Lebanon's Shiite Muslims. Musavi set up his headquarters in Baalbek, 50 miles east of Beirut, where he established CIA-RDP96-00788RU01900440001-4 31900440001-4 SPECIAL REPORT close links with some 350 Iranian Revoli tionary Guards who came to Lebanon i 1982 as volunteers in the war against Israe One intelligence source suggested that Mt savi may have supplied the suicide driver Musavi denied any role in the bombings, bi; he said: "I bow before the souls of the maj tyrs who carried out this operation." The fact that the operation was a suicid mission strongly suggested Iranian influ ence. The airport attack and the car bomb ing of the V.S. Embassy in Beirut last Apri were starkly reminiscent of the yearning fa martyrdom displayed by Iranians in the w& against Iraq. Furthermore, American an( French troops were the targets in last week',- kamikaze raids, while Italian and Britisk members of the multinational peacekeepinj force were not. Iran considers America the "Great Satan. " And it denounces France &, "demonic" for having pledged to supply Iraq with Super Etendard jets capable of firing Exocet missiles. No Trace: Two organizations-Islamic Rhad and Free Islamic Revolutionary Movement-claimed they had carried out the bombing attacks, though intelligence officials were not convinced. Whoever they were, the Marines' attackers covered their tracks. "This operation was carried out by maybe five, six or seven people, entirely in Beirut, with only two or three people who knew the target," said a Washington intelli- gence source. Investigators at the siies of the two bombings were frustrated, The explo- __ sions were so powerful that they left no tracd- of the drivers and destroyed all but a few: small shreds of the suicide vehicles. Many o~ the witnesses are dead or severely injured. ,This may have been the perfect crime,'? said Lt. Col. Hisham Jaaber, a Lebane Army liaison officer with the Marin keeping contingent. "There is no evi ence.' Syria's possible role in the bombings o the American and French peacekeeper may largely have been a matter of looking, the other way. Insofar as the bombings werd intended to drive the peacekeepers out of Lebanon and to humiliate the United States, the attack served Syria's interests. American and Israeli intelligence sources note that Baalbek and its environs are under Syrian Army control, and that both Musa vi's Islamic Amal militants and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards maintain close con tacts with Syrian intelligence headquarters in the Bekaa Valley. Some sources believed that the trucks packed with TNT must have made their way to Beirut over roads that are under Syrian control. Syria may not have organized or supervised the assault-the view of U.S. intelligence officials-but that bellicose country may bear ultimate respon- sibility. If so, Reagan's problem only deep- ens~ what is the appropriate retaliation for a remote-control attack? ANGUS DEMING with JOHN 4.-kLCOTT, KIM WILLENSON and NICHOLAS M. HORROCIC in Washington and THEODORE STANGER in Beirut go Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : NEWSWEEK/NOVEMBFR - 19831 Musa Pi with Shiite militiamen in Baalbek: T bow before the souls of the martyrs'