n r
 Approved For Release 2000/08A~~41-RDP96-00789ROO2900240002-3
 KEY INTELLIGENCE TASK (91004)
 S/NF/LIMDIS) what are the political/military indicators, and
 possible location of indicators, that would precede an imminent
 Iraqi attack, if any?
 (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source A assessment: (DOI: 16 Jan 91)
 a. Preemptive Iraqi strikes are not anticipated in the near
 future (1-2 weeks).
 b. Weather (rainstorms) will be a problem in the southern
 area in 3-5 days (19-21 Jan).
 C. Some heavy equipment movement (east to west) is
 anticipated in near term in Kuwait (area A on FIG 1).
 d. within 1-3 days (i.e., 17-17 Jan 91), Iraq will launch
 missiles (into Saudi Arabia areas):
 - Front line troops will not advance.
 e. Future potential strikes may occur in area B, FIG 1.
 f. Iraq amy have two "special" weapons:
 - Some type of "interference', device that
 causes electronic/mechanical equipment to
 "freeze up" or (lose effectiveness).
 - Some type of energetic/beam-type device may
 be located in the sand in area C, FIG 1.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source B assessment (DOI: 16 Jan 91)
 a. Iraqi preemptive action is, not anticipated until after
 February 1991:
 - A surprise attack may occur from the Kuwait
 side in early February.
 b. This conflict will result in a new Iraq leader by the
 April time frame.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source C assessment (DOI: 15 Jan 91)
 a. There will be considerable aircraft activity (north,
 toward Turkey border):
 - Some old slow (transport-like) aircraft are involved.
 b. Large groups of objects, now buried in the sand, will be
 uncovered.
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 Approved For Release 20 ET
 c Something like communications, or command and control,
 with lower ranking individuals will be shutdown (or turned off).
 d. Sense of disbelief (by high level people).
 e. Some sort of abandonment occurs (in many areas).
 f. SCUD missile launches will be used as a distractor:
 outskirts of Riyada is one target area.
 9. Aircraft carriers and hospital ships are targets (via
 aircraft suicide runs, missiles).
 h. Some type of "activity" is planned in vicinity of Mecca.
 i. Hussein's attitude is ruthless; not concerned about world
 opinion.
 (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source D assessment (DOI: 15 Jan 91)
 - Iraq may initiate preemptive attack into Saudi Arabia
 (vicinity of 30 degrees 20 minutes North/43 degrees 15 minutes
 East). Time frame unclear, though some type of activity
 (indicator) may occur night of 14 Jan 91:
 considerable aircraft activity will
 precede.
 Some type of "light beam/heat" may be
 associated with the possible assault.
    (S/NF/LIMDIS) Source E assessment (DOI: 16 Jan 91)
 a. Hussein will not back out Kuwait.
 b. Hussein will not move-politically or militarily in near
 future.
 c. Saudi Arabia oil wells are targeted:
 - Terrorist activity anticipated against
 Shell Oil Co.
 d. Attacks (Iraq'or US) not anticipated (in near future).
 (S/NF/LIMDIS) All sources (A-E) assessment (DOI: 16 Jan 91)
 a. Sources generally indicate that near term (1-2 weeks)
 preemptive strikes will not occur.
 b. Sources are mixed as to possible long term preemptive
 strike areas; candidate areas include central south Kuwait border,
 or a central area along the Iraq/Saudi Arabia border.
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co Two sources anticipates special (surprise) weapons;
another anticipates near term SCUD strikes into Saudi Arabia as
well as suicide strikes against allied ships.
d. One source does not anticipate Iraq backing out of Kuwait.
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         Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240002-3
         Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO2900240002-3