CPYRGHT
       Approved For Release 2001/03/07 ciA-
       ^^MMENTARY
            6.04849WO003-2
       DP9
       PREWMICOLETON
       Gulf War Entering Criti'
       Cal- Pirha
       Final, -Phase for All
       I rounds from an American warship in- thQ
                                                                  _4
       Persian Gulfou Nov. 2 may have served to supplies.
       drive away an intruding boat, but it also di- who
                                                       the
       1R."
       verts attention from some ofthe more sig.
           -Iraq modem
       nif1cMtWftP0ns and forces ofthe Iran
                                                                      claimed
       war-
       a conflict in which the United
                                                               equiRmentworth
       States, whetly..r or not Washington wishe@ to
                                         z
       aCJMGVded9e1t,i now deeply involved.
       is
       This involvement axises frofii two cir Iran
       cumstanem First; America is giving armed
                                     M resistance
       assistamtothe oil exports ofKuwait, a
       state fttftmtbe start ofthe Gulfwar has
       bee" One oflratfs,leading supporters. Se&
       OWP wlille this 20istance continues, Iraq is
       free to contimi
       e its fairly successful air-sea
       Offensive 399ndIran's oil industry, which 'i
            supPortsTehraii!s war effort %%% . . . . . .
       Wehm TAA OfeOurse, experienced
       MajOrbuian retaliation, which, ifitcomes,
       is likelytobe delivered by chineseSilk-
                                     4
       AM1111,00ft Those area Chinese version
       which was a highly sue-
       WAPMW16@6_ fitil the arrival of
       theprembEzooet
       surface-to-surface mis-
       .-Sft which isnow in the Iraqi armory.
                          Tbe SlDM6rm`0X0V1uS-PdWd war- .-A Silloororm Missile. Is launched.- during a. ftSry @xerclse In China. The
       weapon's 1,000-pound-p
       head Cmdamage a vessel ofsubstantialsize. lus warhead Can 14-1vuly damage a large vessel.
       The ProMem 'With the missile is that its4v-,
       be Jai the -original pie.1"t"IT
       mmedorchaff SPOOnMofult But reports from Western
       M dived it from its target Although the intelligete agencies in Tehran confirm
       Navywknowiedge ,s that the Silkworm can, The adverse course ofevents in the Per- that althOugh the figures ofIranian eamal-
            16@9&h*Wln abftt#@@ V sian Gulfis not the only troublesome situa- ties may be exaggerated, the fact remains
       IMI@'Js c6indent that it has the tools to di- tiOn facingAYatollah Rubollah Khomeini's thatthe Wahedeen are presenting an in-
       vert the missile once detected. - , regime Late last month the government secu- creasinglyserious military problem for the
       Will the.Silkworm be used? A normal ritY council met to discuss fbr the flrst time Iranian,army.

       government faced with the naval and air the expanding operations ofwhat it terms Theelekents ofthe problem are famil-
       strength ofthe United States would contin- "terrorists"-on it western frontier.
                                                                re else-
       ue to employ the Silkworm only against Ku iar. The best ofiran!s regular troops a
       The attackers are the Mujahedeen where - t1ireatening Basm, training for a
       waiti targets, from that Khalq, orPeople's Warriors, who have new Offensive in the north. Raids by the Muja-
       country's OPP *10ifawk missiles and old claimed from their headquarters in Bagh- hedeen must be met by poorly armed local
       SOVietSAM-7sur .face-to-air missiles. But dad to have killed or wounded * ran
                          as we imownow, the government in Tehran is - TN 1 'an forces. Thiiraiders, usually striking at night
       soldiers and oft'ials in 94 fora
            -not a normal, rational one. Rather iti ClV6fts!ff;VV9R099M023000
       -"go f use
       proneto or broke" and 0SIMIR ro'!MuMs t"ula wM taken with several The Mujahedeen's objectives in the at-
            tacks include the destruction of arms tjiq__
       Their leader.MassundRajaM,
       helped overthrow the shah, knows that
       Iranian forces am running short of
       weapons and in a recent statement
       that his forces had destroyed
       millions ofdollam
       Fragmentary intelligence reports from
       and its neighbors indicate thatthe inter-
            nal situation is vulnerable to this sort of
       Mty. Although the Hhomeini
       ad
       regime's police have ruthlessly quelled
       any open signs of disturbance, these reports
       speak of widespread disaffection among
       twomaingroups.
            The first is the urban-middle class. De-
       veloped underthe shah, it has lostjobs and
       standing Its members no longer enjoy
       their old standard of living- not with lamb at
       $35 a halfpound. Within this claw, the lib-
       women ofthe shah's era are the most
       erated
            poken critics ofthe present regime.
       outs
            1,cond group is made up ofthe
       The s4
            fathers ofthe "martyrs," the
       mothers and
            commonly given to the young men
       who have been killed inthe war withiraq..
       While there has neverbeen an official fig-
       ure, some estimates run as high as 600,000
       dead.
            The official government position is that
       the parents are proud oftheir sons'martyr-
       dom But the government has done nothing
       financially forthe parents, whose loss ofsons.
       to till farms or run shops wouldbe the , -
       equivalent in our society to a loss ofSocial
       Security or an old-age pension.
            Exploitation ofthat situation by the Mu-
       jahedeen or even a decisive Iraqi victory, if
       and when Tehran launches its much dis-
       cussed-final offensive@' could bringdown
       the oovernment

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