TMp&qX@gcFpr Release 2000/OBMAftA-RDP96-00789RO-QM4WtZOO-Olla4 Target and Sender Dependencies in Anomalous Cognition Prepared by: Edwin C. May, Ph.D. and Nevin D. Lantz 2 December 1991 Science Applications International C"poration An Employee-Owned Company Presented to: The Scientific Oversight Committee Submitted by: Science Applications International Corporation Cognitive Sciences Laboratory 1010 El Camino Real, Suite 330 Menlo Park, California 94025 10 10 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P. 0. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (415) 325-8292 01A0P?bVd/dq,FbtBKLJlV. gbdjon jVdP2D6Vf018jU8, @ ldfA@p 'a typt 4 UNEDITED DRAFT T*PjdvekftdtfbDP FbOea" 2O8&OSiO8nrlGWROPtS"(b7j82WiBdiOO1 20001-4 DRAFT TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................. ii LIST OF TABLES .................................................................... iii I OBJECTIVE ................................................................ 1 11 INTRODUCTION ........................................................... 2 III APPROACH ................................................................ 4 1. Target-pool Selection ..................................................... 4 2. Target Perparation ....................................................... 4 3. Target Selection ......................................................... 8 4. Receiver Selection ....................................................... 8 5. Sender Selection ......................................................... 9 6. Session Protocol ......................................................... 9 7. Analysis ............................................................... 10 8. Hypotheses ............................................................ 10 IV DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ........................................ 12 1. Null Result ............................................................ 12 2. Significant Deviations ................................................... 12 V GLOSSARY ............................................................... 14 REFERENCES ..................................................................... 15 APPENDIX ........................................................................ 16 Approved For Release 2YJtW'/TP(Rk-VDTP96-00789ROO3100120001 24 TAPpiP8kjWdtFb*r FPebMS02GO(MOBLUrtdQiAeRBPtOfimMM9:B~M6i9O1 20001-4 DRAFT LIST OF FIGURES 1. City with a Mosque .............................................................. 5 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Target (Macro-pixel, 3,3) ...................... 6 3. City with Mosque (I AS I = 1.98 bits/0.25 in2) ........................................ 6 4. Pacific Islands (I AS I = 1.35 bits/0.25 in2) ........... I ............................... 7 5. Zener Target Cards (Average I AS I = 0. 15 bits/0.25 in2) ............................... 7 Approved For Release 2bDWR~Wg~'CRk-VDTP96-00789ROO31001200011-4 TAopiVVWtPW:RubMsed2glOO009140ncOiAioRlBM6nQ~MAMQGM660120001-4 DRAFT LIST OF TABLES 1. Effect Size as a Function of Target '1@pe ............................................ 3 2. Potential Correlation of AS with Effect Size ......................................... 8 I Experiment Conditions .......................................................... 9 Approved For Release 20M~WPO(Rk-W:DTP96-00789ROO31001200011~'4 -A-pKqy19AtE911: 2 11 ffiolgWa 'c~AA;~PPAR94YJu%%%Ogoi4i'00120001-4 Mun Uh%?§Rd n on DRAFT 1. OBJECTIVE There are two objectives of this pilot study: (1) Explore the effects of target properties on AC quality. (2) Determine the degree to which anomalo Lis cognition (AC) quality depends upon a sender.* Definitions of terms can be found in Section V (i.e., Glossary) on page 14. Approved For Release 2QnWg&=69A-R-DP96-00789ROO3100120001 4 UN TE AIFT f e TURMSYRAtgdoofil: q&6%?Sn ARM WO 8 RDPA96-00789-ROO3100120001-4 er epe M_ n a liden es in omalous cognition DRAFT 11. INTRODUCTION The field of parapsychology has been interested in improving the quality of responses to target material since the 1930's when J. B. Rhine first began systematic laboratory studies of extra sensory perception. Since that time, much of the field's effort has been oriented toward psychological factors that may influ- ence anomalous cognition (AC). In this section, we review the pertinent literature that describes at- tempts to improve the quality of AC by categorizing target content. At a recent conference, Delanoy reported on a survey of the literature for successful AC experiments, and, she categorized the target material according to perceptual, psychological and physical character- istics.1* Except for trends related to dynamic, multi-sensory targets, she was unable to observe system- atic correlations of AC quality with her target categories. Watt examined the AC-target question from a theoretical perspective.2 She concluded that the "best" AC targets are those that are meaningful, have emotional impact, and contain human interest; those targets that have physical features that stand out from their backgrounds or contain movement, novelty, and incongruity are also good targets. The difficulty with either the survey of the experimental literature or the psychologically oriented theoretical approach is that understanding the sources of the variation in AC quality is problematical. Using a vision analogy, sources of visual material are easily understood (i.e., photons); yet, the percept of vision is not well understood. Psychological and possibly physiological factors influence what we (Csee." In AC research, the same difficulty arises. Until we understand the influence of these factors on the AC percept, results of systematic studies of AC are difficult to interpret. Yet, in a few cases, some progress has been realized. In 1990, Honorton et a]. conducted a careful meta- analysis of the experimental Ganzfeld literature.3 In Gansfeld experiments, receivers are placed in a state of mild sensory isolation and asked to describe their mental imagery. After each trial, the analysis was performed by the receiver, who was asked to rank order four pre-defined targets, which include the actual target and three decoys; the chance first-place rank hitting rate was 0.25. In 355 trails collected from 241 different receivers, Honorton et al. found a hitting rate of 0.31 (z = 3.89, p < 5 x 10 -5) for an effect size of 0.20. In addition, he found that AC quality was significantly enhanced when the targets were video clips from popular movies (i.e., dynamic) as opposed to static photographs (i.e., effect sizes of 0.32 and 0.05, respectively). All trials were conduced with a sender. In a carefully conducted meta-analysis, Honorton and Ferrari report significant hitting in forced- choice, precognition experiments.4t They analyzed 53 years of experiments conducted by 62 different investigators using a limited set of symbols (i.e., called Zener cards) as target material. Fifty thousand * References may be found at the end of the document. t Forced-choice means targets are randomly chosen from a known and limited set of possibflities (e.g., red or black playing cards). Precognition means that the target is generated randomly after the guess has been registered. Approved For Release 200 BILOB - %W96-00789R003100120001-4 UNW I ED 2 Am wayftAtgari: R&O§#d2jWgtg"~ci;AAO?PFAg~RWLA%%gpAlpO1 20001 -4 DRAFT subjects contributed a total of approximately 2 x 106 individual trials. The overall effect size was 0.020 corresponding to a p-value of 6.3 x 10-25. Similarly, in an earlier review article, Honorton analyzed 7.5 x 105 forced-choice Zener card trials that were collected from 1934 to 1939 and found a significant overall effect size of 0.016±0.001 .5 Puthoff and Targ publish the results of 39 AC real-time trials where the targets were natural scenes in the San Francisco Bay area.6 The effect size for the 39 trials was 1.15. Table 1 summarizes these results for each target type: Table 1. Effect Size as a Function of Target 1@pe Target T@Te Trials Effect Size Symbols (Real-Time)7.5 X 105 0.016 0.001 Symbols (Precognitive)2.0 x 106 0.020 0.001 Static Photographs165 0.05 0.08 Dynamic Photographs190 0.32 0.07 Static Natural 39 1.15 0.16 Scenes The effect sizes shown in Table 1 are qualitatively monotonically related to target "complexity;" yet an appropriate quantitative description for target type is currently unknown. Yet, target "complexity" was one of the experimentally observed and theoretically conceived target concepts found by Delanoy and Watt, respectively. A number of confounds exist, however, in this database for the effect-size measures. For example, in all but the Puthoff and Targ study (i.e., targets were natural scenes), the receivers were unselected. That is, they did not participate in the various experiments on the basis of their known ability as receivers. So, is the large effect size for the Puthoff and Targ study because of the accomplished receivers, the natural- scene targets, or some combination of both? While there are a number of other exceptions, the prepon- derance of the data were from unselected individuals. In many of the trials, a sender was concentrating on the target material, and as in most perception experiments, psychological factors and boredom con- tribute to the variance in the effect sizes. In this pilot experiment, we will apply one physical measure to static and dynamic photographs to quan- tify the relationship between target type and AC quality. By careful selection of target content, we will minimize the psychological factors in perception. In addition, we will minimize individual differences by conducting many trials with each receiver and by only choosing receivers who have previously dem- onstrated excellent AC skill. Because the previous database included trials with and without senders, we will explore the effects of a sender on AC quality, as well. Approved For Release 2MgBi9i-:-r~Rnp-q6-00789RO03100120001-# _ LTDR'AIFT- rcgypA&q 2 IMP r1:%W§9d4qg49W9AncRAc jRsRPAMAa9UsR%91A'001 20001-4 on DRAFT 111. APPROACH 1 - Target-pool Selection The static target material for this pilot study will be an existing set of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs. This set has been divided into 20 sets of five photographs that were determined to be visually dissimilar by a fuzzy set analysis.7 The dynamic target material will be approximately 50, 60 to 90 second clips from popular video movies. These clips will be selected because they: ~ are thematically coherent, ~ contain obvious geometric elements (e.g., wings of air craft), and ~ are emotionally neutral. The intent of these selection criteria is to control for cognitive surprise, to provide target elements that are easily sketched, and to control for psychological factors such as perceptual defensiveness. The video segments will be drawn from a variety of themes including adventure, documentary, and fantasy. 2. Target Preparation The target variable that we will consider in this experiment is the total change of entropy per unit area, per unit time. We have chosen this quantity because it is qualitatively related to the "complexity" of target type shown in Thble 1, and because it represents a potential physical variable that is important in the detection of traditional sensory stimuli. In the case of image data, the entropy is defined as: Nk - I SA: 7 Pjk10g2(PjA)1 j=0 where pjk is the probability of finding image intensity j of color k. In a standard, digitized, true color image, each pixel (i.e., picture element) contains eight binary bits of red, green, and blue intensity, re- spectively. That is, Nk is 256 (i.e., 28) for each k, k r, g, b. The total change of the entropy in differential form is given by: dSk "@ VSk dr + OS* dt at We must specify the spatial and temporal resolution before we can compute the total change of entropy for a real image. Henceforth, we drop the color index, k, and assume that all quantities are computed for each color and summed. Approved For Release 26D.QL Tg - %-M96-00789R003100120001-4 N EN D 4 TAmEst"Afa. l&9A@pM 20001-4 DRAFT 2.1 Static Photographs Each target from the pool of 100 National Geographic magazine photographs will be scanned at 100 dots per inch (dpi) for eight bits of information of red, green, and blue intensity. At 0.25 inch spatial resolution, for example, this scanning density provides 625 pixels for each 0.25 X 0.25 in2 patch to compute the 1@. For a specified resolution, the target photograph is divided into an integral number of macro-pixels ex- cluding a thin border, if necessary. The entropy for the (ij) macro-pixel is computed as: N-1 Sij @' Pj 1092(pi j=0 wherepy is computed empirically from the pixels in the (i, j) macro-pixel only. For example, consider the target photograph shown in Figure 1. Figure 2 shows the probability density for green macro-pixel (3,3), which is shown as a white square in the upper left hand corner of Figure L* The probability density and the photograph indicates that most of the intensity in this patch is near zero value (i.e., no intensity of green in this case). In a similar fash- ion, Sij are calculated for the entire scene. For the photograph shown in Figure 1, i ranges from zero to 43, andj ranges from zero to 32 for a total of 1,452 macro-pixels. The original photograph was 8.5 x 11 inches, and we have standardized on 0.25 inch resolution. Approved For Release 26j)nLO=g - CA-gr-iD96-00789ROO3100120001 - NELY17 D FeT 5 Figure 1. City with a Mosque -Ann%ypF&tFO9Sj:"%RCMWW9A' &A-JJWA%%FW3&9&@qRjjgO1 20001-4 reunn n DRAFT 0.4 0.2 ---- - ----- Lm ............ 0.00 20 40 60 80 100 Intensity 0) Figure 2. Green Intensity Distribution for the City Thrget (Macro-pixel 3,3). We will use a standard algorithm to compute the 2-dimensional spatial gradient of these 1,452 values of the entropy. Figure 3 shows contours of constant change of entropy (calculated from Equation 1) for the city target. The total change per unit area is 1.98 bits/0.25 in2.* In this formalism, entropy is in units of bits and the maximum entropy is 24 bits. Approved For Release 2ffijffi9q_&MW6-00789ROO3100120001 Figure 3. City with Mosque (I AS I = 1.98 bits/0.25 in2). Td%RiPE§1Wr9t&c2r- DRAFT The city target was chosen as an example because it was known (qualitatively) to be a "good" static photograph for AC trials in earlier research. Figure 4 shows contours of constant change of entropy for a photograph that was known not to be a "good" AC target. For comparison, we show in, Figure 5, the traditional Zener card set, which was used in most of the forced-choice experiments shown in Thble 1 and described above. _%eML% Figure 5. Zener Thrget Cards (Average I AS 0.15 bits/0.25 in2). Approved For Release 200 08fe - @A-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 UNWDI 1) AFT 7 Figure 4. Pacific Islands (I AS I = 1.35 bits/0.25 in2). TApmoveakfier. WWPAM 120001-4 DRAFT In Table 2, we modify Uble 1 to show the values of AS (OZ in) -2 for two of four target types. Table 2. Potential Correlation of AS with Effect Size Thrget 71@pe AS (0.25 in) -2 Symbols 0.15 Static Photographs1.35 Dynamic Photographs? Static Natural Scenes We illustrate in this table the intent of this pilot study. We will compute AS for all the static and dynamic targets and, using accomplished receivers, measure their associated AC effect sizes. 2.2 Dynamic Photographs The total change of entropy for the dynamic targets will be calculated in much the same way. The video target will be digitized at approximately one frame per second. The spatial term of Equation 1 will be computed exactly as it was for the static targets. The second term, however, will be computed from dif- ferences between adjacent frames. Or, @L @ sii(t + At) - Sii(t) (2) at At A t where.dt is the one over the digitizing frame rate. We can see immediately that the dynamic targets will have a larger AS than do the static ones becuase Equation 2 is identically zero for all static targets. 2.3 Cluster Analysis As a result of the above calculations, the static and dynamic target sets will have associated sets ofJS. Using standard cluster analysis, each set will be grouped into relatively orthoginal clusters of relatively constantJS. Inspection and fuzzy set analysis will be used to construct packets of five visually dissimilar targets from within each cluster. Since we do not yet know how to assign entropy to an AC response, the AC analysis must be performed on the basis of visual discrimination. 3. Target Selection For a specified target type (e.g., static photographs), a target pack will be selected randomly and one target of the five within the that pack will also be chosen randomly. 4. Receiver Selection Six experienced receivers, who have produced significant AC effect sizes in previous investigations, will contribute 40 AC trials each. Each receiver will contribute ten trials in each of the conditions shown in Table 3. Approved For Release 2011 EflMb(BAWPF96-00789R003100120001 4 TJ14W TE 6 __ A c -4 Td6pam"Mcer. Rf4wN 99PEPOI~§n~P&A-PRn&n-gkZ§W4J~0120001 DRAFT Table 3 Experiment Conditions ConditionTarget Sender Ilype 1 Static Yes 2 Static NO 3 Dynamic Yes 4 Dynamic No 5. Sender Selection The sender for all trials will be the principal investigator (PI). 6. Session Protocol Before the pilot experiment begins, the experiment coordinator will generate, randomly, a counter bal- anced set of 20 dynamic and 20 static targets and, within each target type, generate randomly a counter balanced set of sender/no sender conditions. Each of the six receivers will have their own individual set of targets/conditions. For each receiver, the experiment coordinator will prepare 40 sealed envelopes containing the target number and condition for each trial. Forthe no-sender condition, the target num- ber will be sealed in a smaller internal envelope so that the PI will remain blind to the target choice, but in the sender condition, the target number is visible in the outer envelope. The receivers will be notified about the dates and times of day when their individual targets are available. For each trial and for each receiver, the PI will perform the following tasks: ~Determine from the above list, the target and sender condition. ~In the sender condition, study the selected target and attempt to "transmit" it to the intended receiver. In the no-sender condition, do nothing ~At the conclusion of the 15 minute trial period and after the receipt of the receiver's response by fac- simile, send a copy of the target material (i.e., either a photograph or video tape) to the receiver by over night mail. During each trial, the receiver will perform the following tasks: ~ At a prearranged time, the receiver will find a quiet and lighted room in his or her home and sit at a desk. ~ For a period lasting no longer than 15 minutes, the receiver will write and draw his or her impressions of the intended target material, which will be located in Lititz, PA. ~ At the end of the AC trial, the subject will send the response by facsimile to the principal investigator (PI). ~ By overnight mail, the subject will receive a copy of the actual target as feedback for the trial. We will not provide specific instructions beyond logistical information to the receivers, because they are all experienced in this type of task. For each receiver, the 40 trials will occur at a rate of three per week (i.e., one every other day) during a five-month period beginning in January 1992. There will be significant breaks during this period for Approved For Release 2(%8Jff - @A-RJOI?96-00789RO03100120001-4 UN D AFT 20001-4 DRAFT holidays and to allow the receiver to participate in other experiments. The PI will maintain frequent phone contact with them during the experiment. At the end of the study, the PI will remove the receiver's name, date, and time from each response; ran- domize the order within a receiver set; and provide an analyst with a set of responses and associated target packs. The indented target within each pack will not be disclosed. 7. Analysis For each trial, there is a single response and its associated target pack (i.e., either static or dynamic). During the first part of the analysis, a judge, who is blind to the condition and target for the trial, will be asked to rank-order the targets within the given pack. This is a forced rank, so regardless of the quality of match between the response and targets within the pack, the judge must assign a first place match to the response, a second place match to the response, and so on for each of the five targets. The output from this part of the analysis is a rank-order number (i.e., one to five, one corresponding to a first place match) for the correct target. For each receiver, target type, and condition there are 10 such rank-order numbers that constitute a block of data. A rank-order effect size will be computed for a block as: Rij - 170 Sij N2 @@_ I 12 (3) where Aj is the average rank for target type i and sender conditionj, and RO is the expected average rank, which for this study is equal to three for all cases. In Equation 3, N is the number of possible ranks and is equal to five throughout this study. Thus, Equation 3 reduces to: Ki j - 3 F2 During the second part of the analysis, a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) will be computed for each receiver. The main effects are target type and sender condition. In this part of the analysis, we do not plan to combine data across receivers. In the third part of the analysis we will construct a scatter diagram of rank-order number versus.JS. Using a logistic transformation on the rank-order numbers, we will compute a linear correlation coeffi- cient to determine the degree to which AC quality linearly depends uponJS. By inspection of the scat- ter diagram, we will determine if higher-order correlations should be calculated. 8. Hypotheses 8.1 Null Hypothesis The overall null hypothesis is that Eij will not be significantly different from zero. Even with only 10 trials in each condition and given that the historical effect size of many of the receivers is approximately 0.8, there is an 80% chance of observing a significant effect size for a given block of data. Approved For Release 2011 LOB - %W96-00789ROO3100120001-4 UNOTED 10 TAP&EwMfar. lR@j@P§A 120001-4 DRAFT 8.2 Sender and Target Conditlon Using an F-test we will test the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon a sender regard- less of target type. Similarly, we will use an F-test to test the hypothesis that the quality of AC does not depend upon target type regardless of the sender condition. The interaction terms in the ANOVAwill test the hypothesis that a sender might improve AC quality for only a specific target type. 8.3 Target Entropy The AC quality of each trial is assessed within a given target type and as closely as possible with similar AS. Thus, a significant correlation between target AS and AC quality will be a valid indication of the primary hypothesis that they are linearly related. Approved For Release MO MB - ~IA-R]:)P96-00789ROO3100120001-4 UNWBITED AFT 11 @Am-emQtFaf. F? IffW agb%pftNP04PBQ§ridgl&IZQRMA%M%%9Aagi9Ol2OOOl-4 DRAFT IV. DISCUSSIONS AND CONCLUSIONS In this pilot investigation we will study the degree to which the change of target entropy affects the qual- ity of anomalous cognition, and we will explore the relationship of a sender to the AC process. There are a number of potential outcomes to this investigation and a number of post hoc analyses that could yield productive insight. We discuss these outcomes and analyses below. 1. Null Result At the 95% confidence level, no statistically significant deviations are observed for any of the block ef- fect sizes, Eij. If a X2 test for homogeneity of effect sizes across receivers demonstrates that the data are homogeneous (i.e., p(X2) > 0.05), then we conclude that the experiment failed to demonstrate signifi- cant AC functioning. In this case we will recommend that a replication be conducted with more trials, because there is a 20% chance the the data produced by a single receiver would not reach statistical significance even if an alternate hypotheses was true. that is, the Type II error is 20%. If, however, the effect sizes across receivers is not homogeneous (i.e., p(X2) :5 0.05), then the data for each receiver will be examined individually. Depending upon available resources and the advice of the SOC, the receivers who may have demonstrated individually significant results might be asked to con- tribute additional data. 2. Significant Deviations The are a number of different ways, in accordance with the analysis described above, that significant deviations could be observed. 2.1 Dependency on Target Type Suppose that the ANOVA demonstrates significant effects for the target type regardless of the sender condition. Suppose further that we observe a significant correlation between AS and AC quality. Inthis case, we would consider that the primary hypothesis (i.e., the change of target entropy is sensed by AQ has been confirmed. We would recommend that we extend the study to include natural scenes as target material. To do this properly, however, we must estimate the potential change of thermodynamic entro- py for real locations. 2.2 Dependency on Sender If the ANOVA demonstrates significant effects in support of a sender regardless of target type and there is no significant interaction terms between target type and sender condition, we would conclude that a sender can significantly improve the quality of AC. Furthermore, we would conclude, as Delanoy before us, that we still do not understand what constitutes an AC target. Approved For Release 26=Mffig - Ct*Xff 96-00789ROO310012000124 NEWT D T&prNtemadtUm. R*W§&~49969U%6cgAeBPFAR§ftWuq~ROPAgPO1 20001-4 DRAFT We would recommend, therefore, that a post hoc analysis be conducted to search for target systematics in the existing database. If any were found, we would formulate hypotheses to be tested in later studies. 2.3 Other Post Hoc Analyses Depending upon time and resources, we will re-analyze the AC data. Decoy targets for the blind rank- ing would be selected not on the basis of constant AS, but rather on a visual basis alone; this is the tradi- tional method usually employed in AC studies. Depending upon the content of the targets, there might be other dimensions that could be used to construct decoy targets (e.g., function, physical proximity of target elements). There has been some indication in the literature that AC quality depends weakly upon the noise in the geomagnetic field. Since we routinely record the time, date, and location of each trial, we will add the results from this experiment to that analysis. Approved For Release 20DWBRb ~JA-R.DP96-00789ROO310012000,~-4 UN AIFT TAppmme4t0m. 20001-4 DRAFT V. GLOSSARY Not all the terms defined below are germane to the MEG study, but they are included here for com- pleteness. In a typical anomalous mental phenomena (AMP) task, we define: ~ Anomalous Cognition-A form of information transfer in which all known sensorial stimuli are ab- sent. That is, some individuals are able to gain access, by as yet an unknown process, to information that is not available to the known sensorial channels. ~ Receive -An individual who attempts to perceive and report information about a target. ~ A "e-An individual who attempts to influence a target system. ~ D_rget-An item that is the focus of an AMP task (e.g., person, place, thing, event). ~ Thrget DtsignaA1=-A method by which a specific target, against the backdrop of all other possible targets, is identified to the receiver (e.g., geographical coordinates). ~ Sender/Beacoji-An individual who, while receiving direct sensorial stimuli from an intended target, acts as a putative transmitter to the receiver. ~ MQnjtQ[--An individual who monitors an AC session to facilitate data collection. ~ Sgssim-A time period during which AC data is collected. ~PrqAt @col--A template for conducting a structured data collection session. ~ EgZm=-Material that is produced during an AC session in response to the intended target. ~Feedback-After a response has been secured, information about the intended target is displayed to the receiver. ~ Ana-ly-st-An individual who provides a quantitative measure of AC. ~Speciali -A given receiver's ability to be particularly successful with a given class of targets (e.g., people as opposed to buildings). Approved For Release 2QOQIOBffiRb~IA-R-DP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 VIN F_ D1 TE AFT 14 TAIppicamWtEm:ReWsed2M8iQ&Q&ridUh-eRGIR96mWLMMQQI001 20001-4 DRAFT REFERENCES 1. D. L. Delanoy, "Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Thrgets: Experimental Findings and Observations," Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 230-246, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 2. C. Watt, "Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Thrgets: Theoretical Considerations," Proceedings of Presented Papers of the Parapsychological Association 31st Annual Convention, pp. 247-263, Montreal, Canada (August 1988). 3. C. Honorton, R. E. Berger, M. P. Varvoglis, M. Quant, P. Derr, E. 1. Schechter, and D. C. Ferrari, "PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld," Journal ofBarapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 99-139 (June 1990). 4. C. Honorton and D. C. Ferrari, "'Future Telling:' A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 53, pp. 282-308 (December 1989). 5. C. Honorton, "Error Some Place!" Journal of Communication, pp. 103-116, (Winter, 1975). 6. H. E. Puthoff and R. Thrg, "A Perceptual Channel for Information T@ansfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research," Proceedings of the IEEE, Vol. 64, No. 3, pp. 329-354, (March, 1976). 7. E. C. May, J. M. Utts, B. S. Humphrey, W L. W Luke, T J. Frivold, and V V Rask, "Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis," Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 54, pp. 194-228, (September, 1990). Approved For Release 26ff9M9bq*XFf 96-00789ROO310012000184 ,@pd For Release J002/09/08 lA-RJDP96-0078f0Q?100120001-4 ocro 0 1 rot en or open:dConcles in Anomalous ogni ion TPC% ocol: Target and o DRAFT APPENDIX This appendix contains the full reprints of the following seven papers: (1) Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Experimental Findings and Observations (2) Characteristics of Successful Free-Response Targets: Theoretical Considerations (3) PSI Communication in the Ganzfeld .- (4) "Future Riling:" A Meta-analysis of Forced-choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 (5) Error Some Place! (6) A Perceptual Channel for Information Ransfer over Kilometer Distances: Historical Perspective and Recent Research (7) Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis Approved For Release 2?ffig)8/,CH_&M- W6-00789RO03100120001fi Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CENRACTER=CS OF SEXXMSSFUL FFM-REMNSE TARGEM: EnMaMENrAL PIMIMS MM CBSERVATIMS Deborah L. Delanoy Psychology Department University of Edinburgh 7 George Square Edinburgh ERB 9JZ Scotland, U.K. Abstract This paper review 1 findings and observations concerning characteristics of successful free-response targets. Diformation relevant to the following ories of target characteristics was examined: cmlour/black and white; cmplex/sinmle; novel/familiar; abstract,/ ==ete; dynamic/static; foraVidea a@d meaning; Plontion; and them/ content. Very few conclusims could be drawn fram the data base,, oalthough a tentative finding related dynamic, multi-sensory targets to Esp success. Other suggestive findings were reported for novel and abstract characteristi . 7he discussion considers possible reason for the general lack of findings and presents a possible avenue for future research. ACKNWZDGEMENTS: ms. Caroline Watt and Professor jaffes, Crandall contributed substantially to the research for this paperr for which I am anst grateful. my thanks also to Dr. Julie Milton and ms. watt for helpful camnents on the pa s content and again to Ms. Mtt for the typing of the references. Approved For Release 2000/08/OAO CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT This and the following paper, by Caroline Mttr represents the findings of a literature! examining what makes a successful (in term of being accurately Ived bythe percpient) and/or unsuccessful free-response GESP target.e review was undertaken to assist the Koestler Lab in constructing response a f target pool for use in our future research. We thought such review a was necessary as initial discussions as to what type of targetswe should be looking for revealed that various researchers in group held differing Opmions/ideas as to what qualities a succes ful target should have. These differences were further reinf n r t we started discussing various targets which we had used in ou@ research own r arxi those of other researchers with whose targets s we were poo familiar. An initial search through some of the major logy journals and source books revealed very little coheren y arranged information regarding free-response targets. This review undertaken was in an attempt to remedy this situation. To this end, we examined relevant parapsychological and psychological 1 findings and theoretical modelsp post hoc observationst and lab lore s in of discovering some consensus regarding psi-conducive target qualies and materials. This first paper will present the findings fftrom logical experimental findings, including post hoc findings and 1 observations. It should be stressed that this is not meant to be exhaustive. -we have tried to scout out relat information in the main Journals and newsletters (journal of the Society for Psychical Resec7ch, Journal of Parapsychologyr Journal Proceedings of the Society for Psychical Researchr BLumpean 1 chology, of Parapsy International Journal of Parapsychology, logy ewr and Revi Research letter). We have also examined s conference (Parapsychological Association and ParapsycholPbundation) major parapsychological source books, scme oJ a literature = regarding Of related the developnent of psychic abilitiesr psychology literature, and other praninent, books in our eld which we thought likely to contain the information 1we were - However, it was obviously impossible to examine all of the ly s related literature. _q ly Our survey of the historical literature was quite n= limited (in fact we examined mly two main sources,, , War llier7s writings and Phantasm of the Livingr 1886). Target-related information from forced choi. studies has not been systematically considered here, the primary for rea on this cmission being the two reviews of this literature already by Palmer (1978) and Carpenter (1977). However, general f I s ficin these sources occasionally will be referred to where appropriatein this review. . The most frequent comments regarding found in these sources were generalizations regarding the of choice target material. For example comments might be made that targets which were were vividly coloured, intrinsically interesting, pleasant and so on. Mile such comments may be viewed as conveying the - perspective of what constitutes an easy-to-perceive target, to all list such caments would have been a very tedious task for both the and her audience. Farthenme, no comment could be made upon utility of whatever parameters were adopted when choosing targets s unle one were to attempt a metaranalysis of the relevant studiess, a projectich was far beycmd the scope of the present undertaking. 7busr smmuchs were not included in this review unless information was provided related particular wth target characteristics to the success or failuref the study, and/or the Approved For Release 2000108108: CIA-Ryf,96-00789R , 03100120001-4 target materials were specifically chosen to be unusual in same respect, with *ppiomeg[Fdm&WgWt2WOiMMfcTiAk4WP9BsOCMR003100120001-4 The initial task in this undertaking required finding same way to organize the target information in a meaningful and useful manner. This proved to be quite problematice, . as target materials and content are seldom one-dimensional. Thus it was required to find a means of categorizing a diverse range of target materials, such as film clips, actual geographical sitess, agents' experience of scme sensory stimulus, and a large range of assorted pictorial material, each representing varying degrees of denotative and cormotative omplexity. Indeed, even defining the target in marry studies was not a straight-forward proposition. Pbr example, in telepathic designs, is the target the agent's experience of the target material or the target material itself? In pproaching this task it was thought that the target informatim could perhaps be divided according to the type of target material used (e.g. art prints, film clips, geographical locations, etc.). However, this approach was rejected as in many cases there was not enough available information about a specific target material to allow sensible gerieralizations to be made. Also explored were various ways of trying to represent and categorize the obtained target nformation in a multi-dimensional manner, taking into account both denotative and camotative meaning. Th this endr attempts were made to apply to the data various three-dimensional conceptualizations of the sort obtained from the semantic differential. Thusp we sought to find me scale which would categorize the obtained target informatim - taking into consideration various ccmatative camponents such as evaluation (does the information convey scmething which is good-bad, clean-dirty, sacred- profane, etc.)f potency (weak-stronge, powerless-powerful, light-heavy, etc.), and activity (fast-slowl active-Wssive, sharp-dull, etc.). This approach of organizing the data was rejected as there was not enough information about most targets to justify a post hoc fitting of the obtained information into such a model. Thus, in the end the task was necessarily defined by the type of information obtained in the literature search. Looking through the data obtainedr it was decided that the information could best be organized according to the following target characteristics: colour / black and white; complex / simple; novel / familiar; abstract / cmcrete; dynamic / static; form / idea and meaning; emotion; and theme / content. The "working definiticns" Of these categories will be delineated in the following appropriate sections of this paper. There were many instances where the same data fitted into several different categorizaticns. Ebr instance, in Krippner, Ulinw, et al. (1972) the target consisted of a randomly chosen word, an art print which portrayed the word,, and then a multi-sensory (auditory,, gustatory, olfactory, tactile and kinesthetic) environment relating to the word/picture was created for the agent. Such a target could easily be classified as cmplex, novel, dynamic, emotimal, and as having a strong theme. In such situations, the author has attempted to refer to the information in all the relevant categories, but has only provided details of the study in the category where it was first mentioned. Colour / Black and TAhite The colour category referred to all target materials which were coloured, as opposed to black and white. A telepathic dream study by Krippier and Zeichner (1974) obtained a significant degree (p < .002) of psi-hitting using 7 art prints as the targets. A descriptive analysis of CPYRGHT 232 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Ap 3 rot6d Fe1-@Rq*M&20Q0810&SlAA9&W- 0789ROO 3100120001-4 usin an adapation of Gough and 3-'ilbrun'*s Adjective Check List. Three j evaluated each of the art prints using this list. he saw adjective for If two judges checked t any picture, that adjective was deemed to descr- the particular print. This analysis revealed ge of hits were that a higher associated with targets which had blue in where targets containing th. Orange and yellow were associated with more ses (whether results were CPYRGHT significant is not reported). Puthoff and (1979). in an anecdotal calift upon their remote viewing st= that most hits were s s associated with various nonanalytic asp of target, such as colour. e HoWeVerr in another remote viewing study Targ and Lichtarge,, (Targ 1986) where colOur was superimposed over black hite slides of locations,, and w it was found that the viewers were unable perceive the colour. in 0=enting upon these results the authors lated that the lack of colour perception may have been due to the icted number of colour choices which resulted in making the colour ception a more analytic task than the le target sites. Rich free-response perception Of POSS' . and white line drawings of Warcollier s (1938) work used simple black as targets- Howeverr he observed informally when colour was in tha the target, it appeared to be perceived as f y as was the farm of the %"CLW.U1V* A non-psi study by Braud,, Davis,, and a n 11 lla (1985) exmnined the imagery in dreaming 's and frequency of occurrence of different types of :@y 0 @ Tanzfeld states. As this study used no getsr the results 0 could n g f indicate wbat types Of imagery have an i probability of being a pyrri Pr mentioned more Often than others.. In rela c th la t to this category,, they found that dreaming and ganzfeld immagery a a redcminance of colour P (among Other things). These results could to the findings be t be discussed in this PaPerr in that some of indings could be due these to a @se indings simple predominance of certain naturall U t types of imagery as V . opposed to reflecting actual transmission of tla. of t-related content. it is possible that the higher frequency of colour in general could lead to spurious observations of success with unless formally 1 colour targets 00 our , examined, This should be borne in cons@ mind considering anecdotal observations. Many studies have been conducted using and white targets, blackl most notably those experiments where the targeta isted of simple line @ drawings. However, we found no free-responsei k which compared the effectiveness of black and white to col l @ e ed targets. MMahan and Rhine (1947) conducted a forced-choice study u - both coloured and black and white Zener Cards. They found a higher r vera ge score with the cOlOured cards than with the black and white, t tth the difference was not significant. The findings fran this category do not indicate any clear-cut differences betueen the success-rate of colour @'b black and white target materials. As both have a long track-record significant psi of Outccmes, research specifically aimed at the two in a free-response setting would be needed before any c cl sio c clusions regarding the superiority of one over the other could be mmade. included in the "complex" ca referred to comments id findings about target materia ls, most ly pictorial,, which @re couPlex arWor rich in content. KriPPner and Zeichner (1974) found a Lgher percentage of misses with more comp ex targets (whether the Uyling was significant was not reported). S (1946b) stated that roved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RM6-007=89R, 03100120001-4 i a W/gjpl nuq. t. nusieacl suDiects. KrIeL 9so "ccWo rc&We %kCdA7ARI?9Waa89RMW(I01MO*4 70*) U subjects but the judges, as complex targets could make the evaluation procedure overly problematic, with the creative judge finding numerous correspondences between many dream sequences and complex, detailed pictures. Cn the other hand, significant results have been obtained with very complex target material such as film clips (Psychophysical Research IAkxxmtcry#, 1985) and the multi-sensory target environment of Krippner, U13san, et. al. (1972) described in the introduction. Information classified as *simple" included references to targets composed of clear, unequivocally definabler common objects and symbols. Mst frequently these targets were simple line drawings. Both carington (1940) and Stuart (1946a) recommended the use of sinple, as opposed to cm3pound, drawings so as not to confuse the subject. Warcollier (1963) noted that even though his targets were simple, percipients' responses still showed e distortion. As above,, Kripp)er and Zeicbner (1974) found a higher percentage of hits associated with more simple targets as measured by the number of adjectives used to describe the target (again, whether this finding was significant is not reported). Several, forced choice studies have examined the use of multiple-a-%wt targets. Coenerally these targets would be considered to be 'simple" by free-response standards. However, being multi-aspect by definitim, they would represent more complex material than many forced-choice targets. Palmer (1978) in reviewing this work concluded that when multiple-aspect targets were used subjects tended "to score at least as high or higher on the total target than on any of its primary attributes. Such results suggest either that such targets are perceived holistically (even if the overt responses are f ) or that a correct guess on one attribute somehow facilitates correct guesses on other attributes."(Palmer, 1978., p-88) In a review of six studies utilizing dual-aspect targets, Kennedy (1980) whether caiplex target information was treated as a gestalt or whether the individual parts of the information appeared to be processed separately. No support for or against either mode of information processing was obtained. The above findings do not merit any clear conclusions. Before such conclusions could be drawn direct comparison within studies of cctqplex target material is needed. Novel / Emiliar relating to unexpecteds, unfamiliar, unusual and/or incongruous target material was included in the novel category. Cavanna and Servadio, (1964) conducted a pilot study to investigate suitable methodologies for studying the occurrence of ESP during states induced by taking-hallucinogenic drugs. Their targets were photographs consisting of very incongruous elements, for example an upside-down foot, balancing an artificial eye between the toes. The results were non-significant, al-though this outcome could have been due to the difficulties involved in attending to a test situation when under the influence of an hallucinogenic drug. Krippner and Zeichner (1974) obtained a higher percentage (whether or not significant was not reported) of hits when targets were described as imaginative and interesting (qualities which could be construed as novel). Ullman and Krippner (1973) ran a four subject dream study in which the same target was used for half of the testing nights and a different target used for each PM period for the other half. They observed that the the four participants preferred the CPYRGHT Approved For Release 2000/08/082-361A-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789R 03100120001-4 use of different targets for every dream acainst a single target. 7he authors thought this indicative of the dreavi rs ** attention being 1 - r - engaged by novel ESP stimuli. In another of the dream studies (female subjectsr eight nights ESP, eight of controlp no significant scoring) Ullman and Krippner (1973) camiented that the subjects felt that the target material should be as unusual as possible. Roll and Harary (1976) found that winteresting responses" (hits) were obtained when s---- IT unexpected changes were made in the experiment. Two exmples they of this involved last minute cbanges,beang made to the target Several forced-choice studies have cons the effect of novelty t" task and/or target material upon ESP perf . In reviewing these ce % tudies Carpenter (1977) concluded that ity could facilitate 1@ t i-hitting for most subjects. but could. be prrductive for star e jects; used to a specific routine. classified as Ofami'liarw inc to targets held g degrees of --- for the . Mny tudies have been conducted using targets onal significance of emoti to the ject and with which the subject would hav e been also necessarily Mar. However, as emotional significance was usually deemed the more aspect of such targets, these studies w ill be considered under t section. Irwin (1982) conducted a study examining e influence of subjects' th iliarity with the targets. Half of the (Maimmides slides) exposed to the subjects prior to testingf half were not. This lation had no significant effect the study-s outcome. t th llier-'s (1938) research lead him to 1 lly conclude that only lements of a target familiar to both the and agent could be subj uccessfully transmitted. Targ, Puthoff and 1979) have commented May on q e basis of informal observations of teheir research that use of repetitive target sequences arxl/or use of t pools of which the f ject. had prior knowledge would inhibit remote ew:i ewing success. The few findings reported in this do not support the d --otal support for same the of any fi= conclusions. 7here is some ility of using a different target, with whici the subject is not amiliar, for each testing of that subject. Also, the Krippner and ichner (1974) findings offer some support use of imaginative for the and ting targets. targets which portrayed Ab Abstract infornatim included references to w an abstract and/or e potentially realistic scene or object in eit1v not readily recognizable li listic manner (to varying degrees) or in a E greater percentage - of on ' Krippner and Zeichner (1974) found a istic (%tether s as unreal se ses with targets which were described t his finding was significant was not reported)Ullman and Krippner 1973) in the series of dream studies with reported that purely i bstract pictures which lacked human figures %ve poorer results g; than ctivity. e 5 which contained human f igures engaged in a @ included in the concrete would be erences; ti scene in an immediately r t a target material which presented an object or m a r ?I @ i zable undistorted manner. While a great number of studies have _ - g concrete, we found ed no ed targets which could be zed as bein I I c in the Ific reference regarding the utility of this ee-response st-1 iefg. t Although Krippner and Zeichner-s (1974) finding and Ullman and Ap roved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-ROP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT Krippne3b's (1973) observation sugg&§t tFAt_ WstraL-C'Mr9ew -MY' - 7=- 'De con&icive to psi-hitting more research is needed before firm ccnclus3.cns can be drawn. RE,amic / Static 7he dynamic categorizatim was used to refer to about targets which portrayed and/or conveyed movementp a sense of movemento, aneVor gustatory,, olfactorys, auditoryp tactile# and/or kinesthetic stimulation. 7tws a wide diversity of target materials fell into this category including pictorial material (showing movwent),, film clips (containing movement),, and a variety of non-visual target material such as music excerpts,, the taste of a food, etc. In considering this large category perhaps it should first be noted that Braudr Davis, and Opella (1985) in their ncrr-psi,, no target study,, found a medominance of activity contained in ganzfeld and dreaming imagery. Gurney,, Myers and Ptkkmre (1886) reporting on the findings: of the Society for Psychical Research's Census of Hallucinations found that in cases of apparent GW of literal zeproducticns of the agents bodily sensation (pain, si@ell, touch, etc.) were rarely transmitted. They noted from their am that while taste was perceived in experimental situations, they received no accounts of such in the a reports. The spontaneous cases seldom contained reports of toucho, and when it was reported it was normally associated with auldito-ry and/or visual impressions. music and other auditory stimuli were frequently reported. Warvollier (1963) informally observed that moving objects or the ability of the target to suggest movement sewed to be perceived by the subject. Warcollier (1938) also expressed the belief that kinesthetic sensations should be easily transmittede but admitted to having little data to back this up. Reporting an an Esalen fieeting on Psi Researchr Schlitz (1984) reported general agrement among the participants that kinesthetict auditory and olfactory images were as importante if not more sop as visual images in conveying psi information. Honorton and Schechter (1987)#, reporting on the significant (p, 0.027t 1-t) outcane of 187 automated testing ganzfeld sessions, found that sessicns using dynamic targets (video segments and other *lifelike" material) were ly significant (p, = 0.007, 1-t), while those using static targets (defi as "still pictures") were at chance. 2ie difference between the two was suggestive, but not significant (p - 0.0791 2-0. Likewisep Krippner and Zeichner (1974) found more hits assoaiated with targets having dynamic content (whether this finding was significant was not reported) - I Altam and Braud (1976) ran a pilot study aimed at exploring the idea that right-hemisphere brain activity may be conducive to psi. They used fair different excerptB of music as targetsm, which it was thought might encourage right-hemisphere activilW. 7hey obtained a significant level of psi scoring (p = 0.05). Kesner and Morris (1978) conducted a guided imagery,, pre=jnition study using music from records and their album covers as targets. The subjects- imagery was rated by an x4ependent juage who ly rated subjects- visual and auditory imagery. Neither the results frm the visual 'or the auditory ratings were Y s . r however the two combined were (p < 0.02), suggesting t:hat the yrrr m senses involved in a targetr the better. Several dream studies have been conducted using dynamic target material. Krippnerf Hanortone and Ullman (1972) obtained significant results (p < .001) usings thematically related slidesp accompanied by an CPYRGHT r 15@.03100120001-1 ra @MM2&%&O@/O&Q@&Csao-00789 I Ppner, typeo targetmateria Kr HOnOrtOn. et. al. (1972) again elicited a, signif@cant level of psi-hitting (P = .004). An even higher level of. significa@ coring (p = .0002) was obtained by KriPP-- Iu sg ler, Ullman, et. al. (1972) usina the vuiti-se@y target environment described in the . trIOd'I of this paper. As c d@cn Previously mentionede, Ullman and Krippner (1973 found that paintings of 3 foun hmIans engaged in activity sewed to be more ceBBfU1 than abstract Paintings in the Erwin series. The SeM-Id Erwin study, which again dE@2 n Obtained a significant degree of psi-hitting ( effects Non , the r Order of a thousand to one" P.116),, used art prints together with d p associated objects and activities on the part of the agent. f@aq Dunne and Bisaha (1979), revi - ewing s remote viewing series, rem noted that dynamic targets were perceived as ly as stationary ones. r@adi Yetr PuthOff and Thrg (1979) cmtnenting upon ir remote viewing work ir r e said that motion was very rarely reported, even it was an important en t cmFonent of the scene. Although, Targ, ft and May (1979) stated f "that real-time activities at the target site ar@ @are 0 tr 7hese authors also noted that "in.additiOn to e Often Perceived" (p.94). ually sub ually observable detail, jects sOmetimes report sounds,, mwlls, el tic fields, and so forth,, which can be verified as existing at t locatiansn (p.9s). It t Kr" m 'w should be noted that the above three Observations were all ancedotal. ons were a TWO studies made specific caq:)arisms between static and r dynamic target characteristics. Honorton and S (1987) obtained S j highly significant psi effects with dynamic F while static targets wh Obtained chance results. Krippne.r and Zei (1974) found more hits (197 f X associated With dynamic targets- The findings of Fp-sner and xbrris (1978) and those of the reviewed dream s s further suggest the tt@f =a Possible benefits of using multi-senwry target terials. I Form / Meaning and Idea COMMents related to the importance of the pe or form of the target or same of its omponents are included in this a Puthoff and Targ (1979) f in discussing their remte viewing stated '@mwt of the correct information that subjects relate is f a nonanalytic nature Pertaining to shaPer fOrmt cOlOur, and material er than to function or namen (p- 65). Barrington (1983), reviewing past work with the medium Stefan OssOwieckir found many emwples where form of the target had been correctly identified but not the meaning a situation which she labelled as Ninax%nvIwMing clairvoyancen. a 1963) S -larlY,, WarcOllier (1938 Observed that frequently the shape of a t would be perceived without reference to the target's meaning or ideal, although he also notes that meaning and idea may also be perceived wi t specific reference to shape- Warcollier (1938) also di8 .cusses the k of Richonnet (no reference provided) noting that Richonnet that form. was both .er to Perceive than meaning and would be perce prior to tion Of the identity (idea) of the ESP target. The "meaning and idea" categorization incil referring to situations where the meaning, idea and or dentity were perceivedl, without reference to the shape or physical a ce of the target. Carington (1940) believed that the idea of a to, not the foxm, was what would cam through to the subject. QWney, ers and Plodmore (1886) received reports which indicated that meaning . a were the important nrrMAP f this is where a word "Pects Of the target. The exmple they provide in one language is received in another, having suitably translated. marsh (1960) in a study using simple line drawings as target@,, CMraented that subjects tended to reproduce the IcOncept of the target rather than 1f1tWha,;gg9Lqd arerrtl shared these beliefs as a 9/0je @W_OiWk aa=-&Wr-Rye%M6 4T 0 %6'1914eg %R(Al qggQ14 transmi than a drawing (i.e. fant). As noted abover Puthoff and Targ (1979) believed that most correct information provided by subjects pertained to the ncnanalytic aspects of targets such as form, shape and colour. Indeed, they thought that errors could arise when the subject tried to make sense (i.e. label according to name and function) of such nonamlytical target g nents. This category presents some conflicting observations and opiniicnsr all of which are anecdotal in naturep regarding the utility of form, as ci4med to meaning and idea#, in conveying psirrelated information. Given this state of affairs, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that research aimed at resolving this question is needed. BUotion Any ccmuents, having to do with the emotional content of or emotional reactions to target materials were included in this category. some researchers have also maiie comments about specific target themes/content wtd.ch could be interpreted as having a strong emotional cotipment (e.g. war scenes, erotic scenesp religious themes, etc.). Haqever,, wim.-ther these themes would be regarded as positive or negative would probably vary greatly fran subject to subject. Thereforep these findings will not be referred to in this section unless the author specifies that the emotionality of the target was an important factor in the study's success or failure. Gurney,, Myers,, and Podmore (1886) observed that in spontaneous cases emotions were frequently received, often with the receiver having no idea why they were experiencing certain feelings. However, the emortion experienced by the percipient was later found to be appropriate to the event which was taking place at the tire, unknown to the percipient (e.g. feeling sadness over the death of a close friend). Mroollier (1938) also comments that in spontaneous cases, the message is almost always emo ional. William and Duke (1979) conducted a study specifically examining various target qualities and their relationship to psi --- formance . They devised a 39-item Target Evaluation Rating which measured various target qualities, including overall emotional impact and positive and negative emotional dimensions, upon which each of 152 targets were rated. They then looked at data, gathered from 174 subjects, from other ree-r-spcnse studies which had used these targets. Flor the purposes of their analysis, they excluded any target which had not been randomly chosen as a target at least three tires in the previous studies. This criterion provided 22 tar@,, and ESP data from 91 subjects (overall significant psi-hitting was obtained, p < .047, 2-t). The individual psi scores,obtained for each of these 22 targets were averaged to provide a composite pat score for each target. The composite psi scores were divided into good psi targets and poor psi targets resulting in 12 high psi-scoring targets and 10 low-psi scoring targets. Comparing these targets to the total emotion scca@e (the mean of the positive and negative emotion ratings) from the Target Evaluation Rating,, they found that targets containing a stronger SLIO icnal content were significantly better (i.e. high psi-scoring targets) than nm-emcrtional targets (p < .001). , Braud and Barker (1981) conducted a ganzfeld study also aimed at investigating target qualities, which obtained a significant outcome using a sum of ranks (p, < .04 1-t), but did not reach significance using direct hits as a measurement. Using the Target Evaluation Rating, CPYRGHT 238 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 raB&)*psqx?8ftQM0&tW- WN& 0 PAW having a relatively high emotion rating and five havinglow emotion rating. 1 Each high emotion pack consisted of two positivwmetwo negative emotion pictures; the low emotion packs consisted natural scenes and of two pictures of material objects. This campleac involved many different study measurements and analyses,, of which only most relevant to those this paper will be reported. The neutral (low) m target packs showed emoth more psi-bitting than the high emotion , with the approaching significance (p = .052, 2-Q. Usi@Mscale they devised ing to j measure emotion which bath the subjects and completed,, they agents found a s gen that when a high emotion picture was the , receivers would t feel more total emotion whilst in the ganzfeld d receivers with than a low d emotion target pack (p < .04,, 2-Q. Also iverfelt more emortion ceiver when fe senders felt more emotion while sending (P .04 j, 1-0 . Bmvever,, < .0 (p < Stanford (1984) has pointed out that this finding could be is between subjects ri and an artifactual due to commonalities of xperience agents (e.g. the weather that day) . using s Semantic Differential Osgood " to measure the components of the -- let picturesthey found there 4 more hits when the receivers" and senders evaluationof the targets werein close agreement than when their stegor:UAtim I ' widely differed. Of twenty targets where agreement was close, direct hits (p = nine .04# l-Q. Both Williams and Duke (1979) and Sondowr Braud and Barker (1981) B found significant cutcames in various analyses -g how wel 1 their subjects liked (emotionally preferred) the lliams and Duke i * W r (1979)t comparing subjects ratings of target e for hit and t re erenc @ missed targets for two different groups of s@ 'eats bj (with the rating being made prior to obtaining feedback as the target identity)a, to m found the first group of 101 subjects signiftly preferred targets with which they had obtained a hit (p < .035,as did the second 2 ll tv ing was reported I in group of 80 subjects (p < .0038,, 2-0. A similar f i the Sondow et al. (1981) study, where a n between Liking for n psi-bit and for psi-missed targets again yielded a i ded a significant outcome (p @ g < .0096, 2-t). Another analysis in this studdlyshowed that pictures 10 1 received a significantly higher liking rank .0094,, 2-t) when (p they (p 00 @ were the target than when they we're a contr . Braud and rDewenstern 1 BrI (1982) also found that psi-hitters liked the targets significantly ta better than psi-irdssers (p < .025, 1-t). significant target Two wo preference findings were presented in Braud Boston (1986). Me and Bo d authors replicated the preference effect (p 036t l-Qr and also < reported similar results from Braud,, Ackles les (p < .045,, 1-t). & Howevert these findings nay be to response bias problems. Tb quote Stanford (1984) findings could be artifactual;... Because of their desire for , subjects may tend succes to like pictures which corre to their ganz Id mentaticni, and such correspondence tends to be greater and more when ESP has actually detail ed. Thus such pictures may belUked ly more. 0 (p. 107). forced-choice studies have examined the rol of target preference. ese findings have been reviewed by Carpenter 77) and Palmer (1978). (1 drawing some conclusions about these f Palmer comments that le a preferential effect has been found most often '"with respect to ponse type rather than target type,, it (the erence hypothesis) I ffers our best hope to date of ntergrating messy and inconsistent a very of data concerning the effect of target type on ESP scaring in arced-choice a " (p. 87). Kr, F Hanortont et al. (1972) consid ered their targets Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : ClA-0P96-00789R603100120001-4 CPYRGHT emotiomily @rousing, and thought that their significant results provided support for the use of such material. Ullman and Krippner (1973) also felt *that an important ingredient in the success of experiments in drem telepathy over waking telepathy ... is the use of potent, vividr emotionally impressive human interest pictures to which both agent and subject can relate." (P. 210). Moss (1968; also see: Mossr 1969; and Moss & Gengerellit 1968) described the evolution of her experimental methodology over a series of' six experiments. Brphasizing the importance of using emotionally arousing taxgets, her targets 'evolved to consist of slides acconTania-d- by, alpapriate sound effects paired so as to present contrasting emotions. 7he results from these studies were very sketchily presented, although significant outcomes were described for some of the studies. However , no was made between either emotionally arousing targets and neutral ones, or between the effectiveness of the different contrasting emotions. In a series of studies Preiser (1986) found that ESP perf=rance was highly dependent on the eno 1 loading of the target material. 7he Information about this study is limited as it was obtained fram an abstract. Howevere while no overall significance was obtained, one part of the series did get a significant ESP outcome. Cavanna. and Servadio (1964) stressed the careful choosing of targets which they considered to have definite emotional significance. Mile they did not obtain significant psi-scoringr they did express the belief that their future. targets should be chosen to be even strcnger,, emotionally. Some studies utilizing physiological measurements have used chosen to have specific emotional, significance for individual Jects. Esser, Etter, and Chamberlain (1967) used plethysmographic s W personalized target material,, devised from initial ews with the participants. The resulting targets, designed to greater emotional significance for either the percipient or the were either names of importance to the subject or sentences or )tes describing a emotional conf lict of relevance to the participants. significant outcomes were obtained, but the results were suggestive in kt there was some --crespondence between onset of the sending period and es IYCUFK")gJZL 11 responsese Dean (1971) contrasted pl I SEK"3g CL nrdings of vasoomstricticn examining the reaction of subjects to consisting of either a blank card or a card upon which was written name of a person who has emotional significance to the subject. He nd larger vasoccnstricticns (i.e. more emo 1 arousal) for the names for the blanks. This study also bad a group of control subjects for the names would have had no special relevance. Interestingly, he that the control subjects displayed a greater level of reaction to i names than did the subjects for whom the names bad emotional ignificance. Haraldsson (1983) again used names of emotional ignificance to the participants as the target in a study using a &S, I iyemogj 11 significant results were obtained,, however,, &Q@EAJI No overa did obtain a significant outcome in the first 20 sessions of the study p < .003), with results declining later. Several studies have ccapared targets having positive emotional (palities to those having negative emotional stics. Williams @ Duke (1979), comparing good psi targets to poor psi targets, found t targets which contained a positive emotion were significantly better ets; (p < .02) than those which did not and that targets which tained negative emotion were significantly worse (p < .047) than Se which did not. Sondowr Braud and Barker (1981) found no, significant CPYRGHT Ap &.a, - @,- - - -- - - .. . - -- - - - - -' -- ' - - erence between positive and negative I targets. Eisenberg and Donderi (1979) used 7 emotionally@stimulating films as targets in a rid t study incoporating both forced-choice and f a They d5g =sponse nhi-a a significant degree of psi-hitting ice conditim.- p < .02; free-response condition: p < .001). The film clips were classified as conveying either positive or negative emotions, although no significant difference was found between the scoring on the positive and negative emotional targets. Krippner and Zeichner (1974) found more misses when the target was descr* as pleasant and more hits when the target was described as unpleasant these findings were tb@:ther significant is not reported). Cne forced-choice study which Ifically addresses the positive/negative issue was conducted by Joh an (1971) who asked subjects CY, to provide two wardst one having an exceed gI pleasant meaning for the subject and the other having a very unpleasant f from which he 9 created targets of associated words/cmcepts. These concepts (secondary targets) were paired with a digit from one five (primary targets), although 20 per cent of the primary targets e left unpaired as a control (emotionally neutral targets). Thhe sub ects in this precognitive study were to guess what number would be sel as the target. Johnson Compared per ormance on positive, neutral negative emotions. No significant overall scoring was obtainedp the positive targets showed a non7-significant degree of psi-hitting, the nega I targets-significantly ve psi-missed (p - .0094,, 1-t),, and the neutral targets scored at chance. The difference between the positive and negative targets was significant (p < .005f 1-t). The anecdotal observations in this category reveal that many researchers believe emotional targets to be superior to ncn-emotional ones. However, only two studies.(Williams & Duke,, 1979; and Sondow et al., 1981) explicitly examined this asswIFtion and they obtained conflicting results. one analysis. in Sondow et al. (1981) found that the percipient would experience more emotion with a high emotion target, but this study also obtained a greater degrel, of psi-hitting with low tion targets, this result could be seen as . g against the use of gh emotion targets. Nor can the physiological studies be readily erpreted as providing support for the utili of using target material t e en to have specific emotional. significance for individual subjects. out a ide from the general lack of significant s of these studies r the an (1971) study actually obtained a greater e from his control Ul jects to whom the target material shoul have had no special e levance. ![he studies cm-paring positive ional targets to those rith negative emotive qualities also obtained licting results. Thus, gain more research is needed before any clusions can be drawn egarding the psi-ccnducive effects of emotional a ts This category includes all references Wb mtent or theme of individual targets with th Lrgets. William and Duke (1979) found that 0 xgets were natural, while , the missin )jects-metal,, cmcrete,, man-imdef and mechani talysis revealed this difference to be sign Lhn, and Nelson (1983) # reporting on several ted that there was no differencein effectiven ,te characteristics: natural vs. man-made; pe door vs. outdoor. The Psvchophvsical Re b associate the specific success/failure of these kst of the psi-hitting targets were material 1. 0 (p. 8) A post hoc -1cant (p < .02). Dunne, remote viewing studie , z between the following onent vs. transient; and arch. Labonatory (1985) App CPYRGHT canpaAOprV**f BUX sful than others. The category of "disasters" obtained significant psi-hitting (p = .014f 2-t). Sexual themes were associated with significant psi-missing (p = .008, 2-t). Ncn-significarrt scoring in the psi-hitting directicn was obtained by (listed in order of st:3-ength of effect) the categories of religion, sports/hunting,, locales, and animals. Norr-significant scoring in the psi-missing direction was obtained by the racing and fighting/warfare categories. A post hoc analysis by Sorxbw (1979) found that targets were chosen and ncn-targets avoided significantly often when the pictures showed horses (p < .01), water (p < .02)1, fire (p < .03), and flying-leaping-swinging (p < .04). Such effects were not found with the target categories of food,, war and fand.ne, and music. Ullman and Krippner (1973) observed that the art prints containing/portrayiiig religion, oolour, eating/drinking, emotions, and, people -tended to be successful, as did the agent's multi-sensory involvwent with the target. Stuart (1945), using simple line drawings as targets found that the two most successful targets portrayed a cartoon character and a candle. The two least successful targets were a book and a mathematical equation. in another drawing study, Stuart (1947) found the beat target was a church and the worst was a train. Iastly,, Braudr Davis,, and Cpella (1985) found a predominance of human characters and architectural content contained in ganzfeld and dreaming imagery. Iess frequent were mythical characters, animals, food, and unconnected body parts. These findings could contribute to spurious anecdotal observations. these diverse content categories it was discoved that religion was three times as a generally successful target topic. WaidEare was twice mentioned as being less successful. William and Duke (1979) found that natural targets were associated with psi-hitting, and the categories specified as successful by Sondow (1979) could also be classified as natural. However, given the wide diversity of actual targets which these findings represent, these similarities should be viewed at most as possible trends which require further reseach for confirmation. Discamssion The most consistent category findings of this paper relate to the possible advantages of using dynamic, malti-sensory targets. However, these findings are based on the outcome of relatively few studies and thus should be treated with caution pending further confirmation. The novel category provided some tentative support for the use of new targets with which 'the subject is not familiar for each trial with that subject, and also suggested possible benefits of using imaginative and interesting targets. But again these finding are derived from vexy few studies. The two findings relevant to the abstract categorization both found abstract targets to be associated with poorer results. The tro Jonality of targetst often quoted in the literature as one of the yardsticks by which targets are chosen,, has not been sham to be reliably associated with psi-hitting. Nor have arry of the other categories investigated In short, this review has not succeeded in shedding a great deal light upon what qualities/characteristics might discriminate successful from unsuccessful Lse targets. Indeedt the outcome of this paper could be viewed as demonstrating how very little we actually know about successful versus unsuccessful target characteristics. However,, another rtexpretation of these findings could be that Approved For Release 2000/082Q§ : CIA-RL)P96-OUltSUKUU;SIUUIZUUU'l-4 A 3p= gRcrrfac? Es-X&i @WA re k &W @Vm 6f - P= es s f VM U 1 a years ago WarcOllier (1963) camnnted that HNo two subjectsrespmld alike to the same target. No two targets seem to affect saine subject in the saws way."(p. 56). Indeed . a great deal of has CPYRGHT exmined and revealed nteractions bebosen v arious trait factcws and psi performance (for reviews of this literaturesee Palmer,, 1978; or CarPenterr 1977). Other variables such as state, setti@r respati% method,, and so an, may also influence the t-icular type of target par which is successful in anY given situation Future research could PrOfitablY examine the effects of such ;;@ia bles. In addition, the develcPnmt of a descriptive set of scales#, as the icnal such scale discussed in the introduction: Of this which could be usedon Papere an inter-laboratory basisi, could forward ledge of target success our krx* considerably. The development of such scales be the focus of future wil research at the Bdinburgh Lab. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 243 1 t@J W > 1 ;0 0 a) Q Q 4 00 (D X Q Q Q Q Q Q ,LTOM, K. & BRAUD , W. 0. (1976). Clairvoyant and ,elepathic impression* of musical targets. In J. D. lorris & W. G. Roll (Ede.), Research In Paralpsycholosy 975 (pp. 171-174). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New ersey. BARRINGTON, M. R. 41983). The mediumehip of Stefan Ossowiecki. In W. 0. Roll, J. Beloff & R. A. White (Rds.), Research in Paralpsychology 1982 (pp. 72-75). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey. BRAUD, L. W. & BOSTON, D. A. (1986). Target preference and clairvoyance In selected subjects following relaxation induction. In D. H. Weiner & D. 1. Radin (Eds.), Research @in Parapsychology 1985 (pp. 25-28). Scarecrow Press. New Jersey. BRAUD, L. W. & LORWENSTERN, K. (1982). Creativity and p In W. 0. Roll, R. L. Morris & R. A. White (Ede.), Rgaearch in Paravaychology 1981 (pp. 111-116). Scarecrow Press, @Metuchen, Now Jersey. BRAUD, W., DAVIS, G. & OPELLA, J. (1985). Electrodermal and imagery concomitants of ganzfeld stimulation. ParaysychologX Review, Vol. 16. No. 4, 1-5. @CARINGTON, W. (1940). Experiments on the paranormal cognition of drawings. Proceedinss of the Society for Psychical Research, Vol. 46., No. 164, 34-151. CARPINTER, J. C. (19TT). Intrasubject subject-agent effects in ESP experiments. In B. B. Woluan (Ed.) Handbook of Parapsychology, Van Nostrand Reinhold & Co., New York, 202-272. CAVANNA, R. & SERVADIO, Z. 41964). ESP experiments with LSD 25 and Pailocybin: A methodological approach. ftrapsychological Monographs No. 5, Parapsychology Foundation, New York. @DRAN, R. D. (1971). Long-distance plethyanograph telepathy with agent under water. Parapsychology Association Convention Proceedings, 1969. No.6. 41-42. @DUNNN, B. J. & BISARA, J. P. (1979). Precognitive remote perception: a critical overview of the experimental program. Parapsychology Convention Proceedings 1979, 22nd. Annual Conference, Morazo, California. DUNNE, B. J., JAHN, R. 0. & NILSON, . R. D. (1983). Precognitive remote perception. Engineering Anomalies Research Technical Note PEAR 83003. Princeton Univerniii-, School of Rngineerinz/Applied Science. EISENBERG, H. & DONDERI, D. C. (1979). Telepathic transfer of emotional information In humans. Journal of Psychologro Vol 103, 19-43. ESSER, A. H., ETTER, T. L. & CHAMBERLAIN, W. B. (1967). Preliminary report: vhysiological concomitants of "communication" between isolated subjects. International Journal of Paralpsychology, -Vol. 9, No. 1, 53-56. GURNEY, Z., MYERS, F. W. H. & PODMORE, F. (1886). Pbantaons of the Livins. Trubner & Co., London. HARALDSSON, E. (1983). Vasomotor reactions as indicators of extrasensory perception. - In R. A. White (Ed.) ftrapsycholosy Abstracts InternationSI, Vol. 1, No. 1. 26-26. HONORTON, C. & SCHECHTER, Z. 1. (1987). G&nzfeld target retrieval with an automated testing system: A model for initial sansfeld success. -In D. H. Weiner & R. D. Nelson (Edo.). Research in Parapsychology 1986 (pp. 36-39). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey.' IRWIN, C. P. (1982). The roll of memory in free-response ESP studies: in target. familiarity reflected in the scores? Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Vol. 76, No. 1, 1-22. JOHNSON, M. (1971). An attempt to effect scoring behavior in a group test of precognition by means of manipulation of activation and by the use of individually assigned emotionally loaded target material. Research Letter of the Parapsychological Division of the Psychological Laboratory, University of Utrecht, 15-32. KENNEDY, J. Z. (1980). Information processing in ESP: A survey of forced-choice Experiments - using nultiple-aspect targets. Journal of Parapsycholom r Vol. 44, No. 1. 9-34. KESNER, J. & MORRIS, R. L. (1978). A precognition. test using guided imagery. In W. G. Roll (Ed.). RSsearoh In ParSpsychology 1977, (pp. 48-52). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey. KRIPPMER, S. (1970). Commenting upon a paper by T. Moss, "Telepathy in the waking state: an experimental design". C2nference on Methodology In Put Research, 1968, > PWrapsychology Foundation, New York, 136-137. K&PPNER, S. & ZRICHNER, S. (i974). Descriptive analysis OC art prints telepathically transmitted during sleep. In W(D G. Roll, R. L. Morris & J. D. Morris (Eds. ), Research A1 Paravoychology 1973, (pp. 27-28). Scarecrow Press, Mauchen, New Jersey. K pVPPNER, S., HONORTON, C. &ULLMAN, M. (1972). A second cognitive dream study with a selected subject. In WiF G. Roll. R. L. Morris & J. D. Morris (Eds.), &psychological Par Association Proceedings, 1971, No. 8, 7V-79. (D K P MASTERS, R. & HVP HER, S., HONORTOW, C., ULLMAN, M., STON, J. 41972). A long-distance "sensory bombardment" Ea-dreas study. In W. G. Roll. R. L. Morris & J. D. Maria (Rds.). Parapsychological Association Proceedings, 1900, No. 7, 49-51. a KMPPNER, S., ULLMAN, M., HONORTON, C., HUGHES, W. GOODMAN, G. & HARRIS, R. (1972). An eight-night study of pOcognitive dreams using EEG-EOG techniques. In W. G. R51, R. L. Morris & J. D. Morris (Eds.), P &psychological Association Proceedings- 1970, No. 7, 2V-28. M. C. (1960). The Rhodes experiment: linkage in -sensory perception. Journal of the Society fot ical Research, Vol. 40, 219-239. WAN, E. A. & RUINS, J. B. (1947). A second reb-Durbas ESP experiment. Journal of Parapsychology, 11, No. 4, 244-253. MWS, T. (1969). ESP effects In "artists" contrasted with A-artists". Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 33. No. Is 5 69. PREISER, S. (1986). Emotion versus information: a methodological ' critique. In R. A. White (Ed.) Parapsychology Abstracts International, Vol. 4, No. 1. PSYCHOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LABORATORY (1985y. 1985 Psychophysical Research Laboratory Annual Revort. PUITHOFF, H. E. & TARO, R. (1979). A perceptual channel for information transfer over kilometer distances: historical perspective and recent research. In C. T. Tart, H. E. Puthoff & R. Targ (Rds. ) Mind at Lariffe, Praeger Publishers, New York. New York. ROLL, W. G. & HARARY, K. (1976). Target reponses during out-of-body experiences. In "The 1976 SERPA Convention - a report by Gerald Solfvin", Parapsychology Review, Vol. 7, No. 3. 1-7. PCHLITZ, M. (1984). Esalen meeting on psi research. Parapsychology Reviews Vol. 15, No. 6, 10-12. SONDOW, N. (1979). Effects of association and feedback on psi in the ganzfeld: is there more than meets the judge's eye?. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, Vol. 73, No. 2, 123-150. SONDOW, N., BRAUD, L. & BARKER, P. (1981). Target qualities and affect measures in an exploratory psi ganzfeld. Parapsychological Association Convention Proceedings, 1981. STANFORD, R. 0. (1984). Recent genzfeld-ESP research: a survey and critical analysis. In R. 0. Stanford & S. Krippaer (Edo.) Advances in Parapsychological Research 4. McFarland & Co., Jefferson, North Carolina, 83-111. free-response method. Journal of Parapsychology, Vol.' 9, No. 2, 92-105. STUART, C. E. (1946a). GESP experiments with the free-response method. Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 10, No. 1, 21-35. > -0 -0 0 (D CL -n 0 (D F (D 0 00 00 0 > @u 0 -0 to 0 0 4 00 4@6 T. (1970). Telepathy in the waking state: an rimental design. In R. Cavanna (Ed.), Proceedings o IZT-142. Paraps tion, New MOSS, T., & ORNGERBLLI, J. A. 41968). ESP effects generated by affective states, Journal of Parspsycholoiyg Vol. 32, No. 2, 90-100. PALMER, J. (1978). Extrasensory perception: research findings. In S. Krippner (Ed.) Advances in STUART, C. R. (1946b). An interest inventory relation to ESP scores. Journal of Parsysychology, Vol. 10, No. 3. 154-161. STUART, C. I., HUMPHREY, B. M. & MoMAHAN, E. (1947). Personality measurements and ESP tests with cards and drawings. Journal of Parapsychology, Vol. 11, No. li 118-146. Plenum Press, Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT TARG9 E., TARGo R. & LICHTARGE, 0. (1986). Realtime clairvoyance: a study of remote viewing without feedback. Irk D. H. Weiner & D. I. Radin (Eds.) Research in Parapsychology, 1985 (pp. 36-39). Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, New Jersey. TARGt R. p PUTHOFF9 H. E. & MAY, E. C. (1979). Direct perception of remote geographical locations. In C. T. Tart, H. E. Puthoff & Targ, R. (Eds.) Mind at Large, Praeger, New York. ULLMAN, M. & KRIPPNER, S. (1973). Dream Telepathy. Penguin# Baltimore. WARCOLLIERj R. (1938). Experimental Telepathy. Boston Society for Psychical Research, Boston. WARCOLLIER9 R. (1963). Mind to Mind. Collier Books, New York, New York. WILLIAMSj L. B. & DUKE, M. (1979). Qualities of free-response targets and their relationship to psi performance. Parapsychology Association 22nd. Annual Conference Proceedings, 1979, Moraga, California. 'M Approved For Release 2000/08/W: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CHARACTERISTICS OF SUCCESSFUL FREE-RESPONSE TARGETS: THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS by Caroline Watt Psychology Department University of Edinburgh ABSTRACT This paper describes theoretical ideas from a variety of sources as to what might be expected to make a successful free-response GESP target. Popular "how to be psychic" literature, analyses of the characteristics of spontaneous cases, and theoretical suggestions from psychology and parapsychology show considerable consistency In their suggestions about the likely features of a good target. Two main recommendations appear to emerge from these sources - good GESP targets should be psychologically salient and physically salient. 1. targets In parapsychological research should be meaningful, have emotional impact and human Interest - this may make them salient in the minds of our experimental participants; and, 2. targets should also be physically salient by standing out from their backgrounds - properties such as movement, novelty, brightness and contrast tend to make stimuli physically salient. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT CHAFIAO"DI[RtB'RCOORBUCfgMS'PelEff% THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONPI UffRODUCTION Deborah Delanoy (1988) examined the observations from literature on what makes a good GESP target. Despite the f findings seen in this literature, It was possible to make a 1cw about what experimenters believe constitutes a good GESP hirget. be seen as forming the second half of our observations and thoughts parapsychological research. Delanoy described what is currertly characteristics of successful GESP targets, concentrating free-response experiments in parapsychology. In contrast theoretical suggestions as to what might be expected to make more widely (and consequently with less depth) over some varil something relevant to say on this question. As stressed by Delanoy, our combined efforts are far from primarily aimed at getting some Idea of what kind of targets research In Edinburgh. To do this, we looked through sone journals (JASPR, JP, JSPR, EJP, UP), parapsychological abstracts, convention proceedings, RIP, Parapsychology Review, certain in the Koestler Chair library, and I have also examined some psychological which I consider relevant to the target question. Particular ettention cases where authors made specific comments about the chara0eristics GESP targets. Firstly, this paper briefly considers so-called "Airport Project some research by Professor Robert Morris and his students us! be psychic" books which can be found in airport booksl Secondly, the paper examines (again briefly) the kind of "tag seems to be transmitted in people's spontaneous psychic dxpi paper considers some theoretical suggestions by parapsycholo, be expected to make a good GESP target. Then I make soi own on possible characteristics of a successful GESP target, the psychological literature on human-environment interaction and attributions of causality. The paper ends with a summary at IWAUPETS: some free-response aws and contradictory general statements This paper can about targets in believed about the on relatively formal this paper describes good targets, roaming )d literature which has .Omprehensive, being Ne should use in our parapsychological PA and PF "relevant" books held research was given to of successful books [named after ig the kind of "how to Dps (Morris, 1977)]. at" information which dences. Thirdly, this Ists as to what might ie suggestions of my lerived from some of , curiosity, attention, J conclusions. I I would like to thank Prof. Jim Crandall, Dr. Deborah Delanoy, @ Dr. Julie Milton, Prof. Robert Morris and Mr. Robin Taylor for their valuable criticisms of and contributions to this paper. 248 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGF.ftpproved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 1. "'AIRPORT PROJECT" BOOKS A skim through the 21 "how to be psychic" books which form part of the Koestler Chair library, and which I felt might have some comments to make about targets, found only 6 authors who made recommendations on what might make a good target when training psychic powers. Even then, the authors invariably failed to define their terms or write more than a sentence on the subject. These recommendations should therefore be treated with caution, as they do not represent the findings of careful scientific experimentation. On the other hand, they may have something to suggest about popular ideas of what makes a good GESP target, and these ideas may be based on some grain of truth. Boswell (1969) recommended the use of "mentally stimulating" targets. Also, he felt that physical sensation and especially emotion were easily transmitted, and that colour was picked up better than black and white. Edwards (no date) suggests that faces and pictures make good targets. Denning & Phillips (1981) recommend trying to transmit a message of emotional significance to the receiver. Likewise, Sherman (1960) says that It is crucial to have some emotional content to the target. A related area of interest is psychometry, where an object is used to provide further information about its owner. Powell (1979) recommends using as a token object metal or leather which has been close to the skin for a long time and therefore has had a chance to build up somo personal association with the owner. Finally, Burns (1981) feels the following make good practice targets for developing GESP: pictures (rather than words); something experienced vividly by the agent; flavours; body position of the agent, or whether the agent is sitting in the light or dark; and sizes and weights of objects. There do seem to be some common themes in these authors' suggestions, though the small sample covered here means that any patterns could be illusory: emotional impact seems to be important (though little is said about whether the specific emotions should be positive or negative ones); and targets conveying information about events happening to humans seem popular. 2. SPONTANEOUS CASES There i's a considerable literature concerning the sort of information conveyed in spontaneous cases of ESP, and so as a necessary constraint this section is limited to observations from Sybo Schouten's (1979b, 1982) examination of two great collections of spontaneous cases - Phantasms of the Uving and the Louisa Rhine collection. Schouten made a quantitative analysis of these collections with a view to finding patterns and relationships which might stimulate further experimental research. As he pointed out, the two collections covered quite different cultures and eras, and were gathered for different purposes. The collectors of the "Phantasms" cases took great pains to investigate and verify their cases, and had a special interest in receiving #krit, fait fhacn minht lAnd -minnnirt tn thair hvnothesis that 249 CPYRGHT I nf o rnMVXctYM*ft19%e1#W0b 9%W&W0§MQ*9W§%TAqW persons. In contrast, the Rhine collection took cases more or the idea that inaccuracies would cancel each other out over a and the reports were gathered with the aim of providing laboratory research (Schouten, 1986). Excluding 150 of the cases (for reasons outlined in Schouti analysed the remaining "Phantasms" cases according to categories (Schouten, 1979a) and found that about 75% of the illness or injury to the target person, though a tendency to rem, for longer than trivial events accounted for some of this pattern. conveyed Information about positive experiences of the target pei Table 1 (from Schouten, 1979b, p.432) Situation of target person at time of experience death 66.7% serious illness 12.5% slight injuries 8.7% serious material .5% slight material .2% trivial 10.0% positive 1.4% at face value, with e number of cases, gestions for future n 1979b), Schouten 2 previously-defined ases Involved death, mber serious events Only 1.4% of cases ;on. It Is interesting to note that slight personal Injuries were mor @ often the topic of spontaneous experiences (8.7%) than serious material dama ge (for example, a building on fire, considerable financial loss) (0.5%). This suggests that negative events related to humans are particularly strong targets in spontar eous cases. Similar patterns are observed In Schouten's (1982) study he Rhine collection, where he analysed a representative saniple (15%) of cases (excluding PK). About 75% of the sample concerned negative events such as death, injury and accident while almost no cases concerned material damage. As with the Phantasms study, a tendency to remember and report serious events more often tha non-serlous events accounts for some of this pattern. However, the distribution of negative events in the Rhine collection differs from the Phantasms collection, with the former having fewer cases involving death. of the target person (37.7% compared wi @h 66.7%), but more cases involving serious accidents and slight Injuries. As Schout@n points out, part of this difference may be due to the Phantasms collectors' preference for apparition cases. in summary, Schouten's analyses of spontaneous case collections suggest that negative events related to humans feature predominantly as "targets", although this observation may be partlydue to a reporting bias. It is significani that both the Rhine and the Phantasms cases share this pattern despite the very diflerent methods used Approved For Release 2000/08/08 :25M-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 19Z V- WOOZ WO @ COON 68LOO-96d(3N-Vi 0 : 80/80/OOOZ GsNb3tIeM POM . 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AlIzioedse) juaidiwed eqj uo pule uosied le6jBl e4l uO 4loq pedw! IBU0110we OAIJBBOU 13 8AB4 ol AIG)JI1 OJB SJUGAS jeolsAl4d 8AIJBBOU 'J8A8MOH -sesw snoauutuods aill-IBei eleinwis ol japio ui sluedloiji8d leluawpedxe jieqi uo Ainful jwjsA4d logul jouueo sjsj6ojOqoAsdejBd AjjUePjA_q 'suOll0eI103 ese41 J84186 01 V- WOOZ WO @ COON 68LOO-96d(3N-Vi 0 : 80/80/OOOZ OSBOIGN JO=j PGAO.19-WE)@]AdO CPYRGHT wmlaK*av`Ua -Much of ne r our research - that psi Involves redundancy with our oth r known senses. For instance, most of our experimentation' Involves primarily vi@s al targets such as art prints. Braud suggests that It would be useful if psi provided nformation which is not 3 immediately evident to our other known senses. Such non-e Ident Information could concern the larger relationships in which a target participates, for example Its history. d Similarly, Gertrude Schmeldler in her 1971 PA Presidential dress stated that the ESP target Is not the physical stimulus variables, but the "m aning" of the target or an *informational pattern" (Schmeidler, 1972). Braud conduct d a pilot experiment to t test the theory of non-evident psi, where subjects were conf nted with five Identical boxes containing, respectively, three control objects and two amples of hair cut from one person's head. The hair samples were therefore related o each other, while the control objects had no long-term association to a particular arson. Subjects were n told which box was the "key" (one of the two boxes contain ng a hair sample) and, while remaining unaware of the contents of all the boxes, ore asked to rank the remaining four boxes according to how "related" their content were to the contents of the key box. This study failed to achieve significant results, but this may still be an idea worth further investigation. The 1986 Esalen Conference discussed techniques to Improve the reliable practical nt use of psi abilities. Targ (1987) recommended that experim n ers look for common elements in the "psychic appearance of targets (i.e. In mentations), and that they should compose a glossary of typical target transformation a rs. Tart (1987), at the @o same conference, suggested that experimenters create a po I of "hot" targets - ones that are consistently successful, either because they are c rrectly described or are described In a recognisable fashion. In other words, what m as a good target would be defined operationally. So far, this section has considered research purely within parapsychology. Some parapsychologists have taken a more interdisciplinary approach, however, and have related the findings from other areas of research back to the estion of what makes a good GESP target. Tart (1982) looked at how responses to targets are mi psychophysiology, and asked what were the characteristics this field of research: what kind of stimuli are most readily n to analyse. To be successful, a target stimulus In psychol out from Its background. For targets In parapsycho logic., achieved by having the target stimulus occur suddenly, be d what Tart calls "psychic intensity" - the sense that the meaningful within the experimental context. Tart suggests tl experimental participants on the significance of the target required meaningfulness. Psychic intensity could also r happening to an agent - a methodology which Tart finds att good target should stand out from Its surroundings is sti osvcholoalcal literature on human attention which I will be intri 252 asured In conventional if a successful target in ;ponded to, and easiest hysiology should stand I research, this may be ;crate in time, and have arget is Important and at we could instruct our In order to give It the flect an intense event active. The Idea that a ingly supported by the ducInG later. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGJNITproved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 A second area of research which has had some heuristic value for parapsychological research concerns subliminal perception, or preconscious processing (Dixon, 1981). Comparisons of psi and subliminal perception have noted that "right hemisphere" processing facilitates subliminal perception (Roney-Dougal, 1981, 1986) - a suggestion which has also been made for psi perception (e.g. Braud, 1975). This could suggest that "right hemisphere targets" such as music, pictures and other non-analytic targets might be preferable to "left-hemisphere" targets such as words and numbers. Another parallel between psi and subliminal perception is that emotive stimuli can evoke clear autonomic responses In the percipient In both cases (Roney-Dougal, 1986). Serena Roney-Dougal feels that the use of negative emotional targets Is both morally and methodologically unsound, partly because some of her subjects reported unpleasant experiences while receiving target impressions and might psi-miss with this-, kind of target, and also because of the perceptual defence phenomenon seen in subliminal perception. Sondow, Braud & Barker (1981) considered that "defensive" subjects might be likely to psi-miss with unpleasant targets, and devised an "Openness Questionnaire" to identify such subjects. They found no significant difference between the "openness" of receivers who psi-hit and those who psi-missed in a ganzfeld study. Unfortunately, no extensive description Is made of the format of the questionnaire, or of whether or not it measures perceptual defensiveness as seen In subliminal perception or some other, unspecified, form of defensiveness. In perceptual defence, a person may raise his or her recognition threshold for a threatening or unpleasant stimulus - in other words, they perceive it less clearly. Roney-Dougal Interprets this as being due to the person's desire or motivation not to perceive the threatening stimulus, a motivation which, she feels, may underlie psi-missing also. However, Dixon reports experiments which suggest that the perceptual defence effect, rather than representing the motivations of the experimental participant, Is best explained in physiological terms: emotive stimuli cause changes in a person's arousal level which in turn affect the sensitivity of the sensory receptors. Whatever the mechanism of the effect of emotional stimuli on recognition thresholds, it is clear that this effect is not uni-directional. One aspect of perceptual defence which, it seems, tends to be overlooked is sometimes called vigilance. While some people may raise their recognition thresholds to emotional stimuli, others may actually lowerthern (Brown, 1961; Dixon, 1981). Without digressing too much on the reasons for this apparent contradiction, it has been found that there is a correlation between personality-type and a person's tendency to raise or lower his or her recognition threshold, with extroverts raising their thresholds, and introverts lowering them (Brown, 1961; Corcoran, 1965). This has some Interesting Implications for parapsychology. While Roney-Dougal felt that the raised recognition thresholds seen in perceptual defence might be linked with the psi-missing of her own subjects with negative emotional targets, other researchers have found the opposite (Delanoy, 1988), and the vigilance effect suggests that some parapsychological subjects could even psi-hit with unpleasant targets. Donn Byrne (1961, 1963, 1964) has developed ssion-swig gn" c a "repW I itizWi, s 44% 0 M g' _%Up 9? Wh gg@ b 8 pproved For e ease M 861N9R%0@jb 253 e Wffi%4 et@ F@ 0 @ 1.%p * 'JMY1:,ClJk@ s could tudy the 0 1 W 00 si-missin!gk"it Ep 29NA mechanisms o psi- 101 JqM0V%J _;randall, 9 p personal communication, 1988). Having looked at popular literature, spontaneous cases, and theoretical suggestions from parapsychologists on what might make a good target, I will now make some inferences from areas of psychology which I consider to be relevant to this discussion. (1) EMOTIONAL RESPONSES TO STIMULI Mehrabian and Russell (1974) outline a theoretical al CPYRGHT psychology (the study of the impact of the physical and so emotions, attitudes and behaviour). In their own words, there are three basic emotional responses (pleasure, aroi dominance-submissiveness dimension refers to the c individuals feel they have over a situation or environment), be used to describe adequately any emotional state (e.g. their impacts on these basic emotional dimensions, the 4 components within or across sense modalities (e.g. color, 1 can be readily compared" (preface, Mehrablan & Russell, 1%' There is evidence of considerable Intermodality of human that is, stimulation in one sensory modality may affect pi instance, people who visualize auditory stimulation tend to i names and mood adjectives with types of music: "Suc visualize exciting music In bright forms or sharp and anguL in rounder forms* ( p. 11, Mehrabian & Russell, 1974). ' responses to stimuli reported above (pleasure, arousal an( providing a measure with which to compare people's varle stimuli. This is relevant because It suggests that an add! our consideration of what might be expected to be salient Is not only the actual physical characteristics of the targ response (a combination of pleasure, arousal and dominan in the percipient. Further, the theory may provide a methodological framew the impact of various target characteristics on our experim personal communication, 1988). A semantic differential people's emotional state In 'particular settings, or to rr emotions over time. Mehrabian and Russell's scale co describing various aspects of pleasure, arousal and don are asked to mark on the scale the degree to which one c most accurately reflects their feelings. Semantic differentic, used in parapsychology, though for different purposes tha et al (1970) used Osgood's Semantic Differential to find pi, affective reactions to the same concept, though, contrary found no relation between the degree to which people agr tamet stimulus and their GESP scores with that stimulus. proach to environmental :Ial environment on man's "Evidence suggests that sal, and dominance) (the ;gree of control. which ombinations of which can anxiety). By considering ffects of diverse stimulus itch, texture, temperature) 4, [my italics]). response to stimulation - rception In another. For gree In associating colour i persons were found to r figures, and slow music be three basic emotional dominance) are seen as I Intermodal responses to lonal Important aspect to Datures of a GESP target t, but also the emotional 9) which that target elicits rk for the consideration of r ntal participants (Delanoy, cale is used to measure asure their characteristic prises 18 adjective pairs Inance, and their subjects @ other of the adjective pair I scales have already been 1 suggested here. McBaIn Jrs of people with common to their expectations, they ied In their reactions to the Sondow, Braud & Barker 254 i Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT (1981) used Osgood's Semantic Differential as one of several measures of target picture emotionality. However, it should be possible to make more extensive use Of the semantic differential, and it is planned to investigate further how a scale such as Mehrablan & Russell's could be adapted to measure the reactions of parapsychological subjects to targets and to provide a method to standardise descriptions of successful targets. The second aspect of Mehrabian and Russell's theory of environmental psychology which may be relevant to our discussion about targets is their consideration of how emotional reactions to physical environmental stimuli are related to the concept of approach-avoldance. This they define broadly as including "... physical movement toward, or away from, an environment or stimulus, degree of attention, exploration...favourable attitudes such as ... preference or liking ... * (p.96, Mehrablan & Russell, 1974). Arousal is seen as a mediator of approach-avoidance behaviour. A literature review suggests that approach -avoidance is an I nverted-U -shaped function of iarousal: an organism seeks an optimum level of arousal - whether or not it approaches or avoids a stimulus depends on how amusing the stimulus Is, and extremely high or low levels of arousal are avoided. In animals, there Is a tendency to explore the unfamiliar. When the stimuli are fear-inducing, animals repeatedly withdraw and approach the stimuli. Mehrablan and Russell note that the animals are maintaining an optimum level of arousal With this behaviour. Similar behaviour Is seen in human children and adults (for references see Mehrablan & Russell, 1974; Berlyne, 1960). Anecdotally, humans do seem to have a penchant for voluntarily and repeatedly exposing themselves to negative emotive and fear-inducing stimuli - hair-raising roller coaster rides and horror films, for example. The Idea of approach-avoidance being mediated by arousal relates to the consideration above (re perceptual defence and vigilance) of the merits of using negative emotive targets In parapsychology. It suggests that people might have some attraction to negative emotive targets insofar as these targets tend to Increase arousaL Too much arousal, however, will cause people to withdraw from an unpleasant target. On the other hand the use of neutral and bland GESP targets is unlikely to arouse our experimental participants at all, consequently failing to elicit approach. Of course, positive emotive targets would also be expected to influence the arousal of our subjects and to elicit approach-avoidance behaviour. @ second area of psychological research which may make suggestions relevant to the uestion of what makes a good GESP target concerns the characteristics of stimuli 1 hich attract people's attention. 2 2) STUDIES OF ATTENTION hile the themy discussed In the preceding section suggested that stimuli could be Jescribed in terms of people's basic emotional responses to them, other research has marnined characteristics of the stimuli themselves, to see what stimulus features tend o attrac@attentlo pc6Mpk9Di#9@e L pproveg-FolMNaM hN68% %Mg@MftM0r,"gCMft4Dn 255 Psyclk~iWi9AcPfv&PWEhaWeCW"t/99~rlgWF*E;~96W~?Bpm A 66qW661 atay be relevant to the discussion here as it could suggest the kind o' target features which might attract the attention of our experimental percipients Ir free-response GESP tasks. Berlyne (1970) noted the difficulty of even defining what Is meant by the word "attention". In his series of experiments (described in Berlyre, 1960) on curiosity, conflict and arousal he seems to use an operational definitlor. These experiments typically presented the subject simultaneously with several stimuli and observed the percipient's eye fixation movements - the inference being that attention was given to the stimulus which attracted most eye fixation (e.g. Berlyne, 1958). Other experiments used a different measure of attention, allowing subjects to expose themselves to very brief sights of stimulus pictures as many times as they liked - presumably attention was attracted by the stimuli which were chosen to be seen most often by subjects. The characteristics of stimuli which seemed to Influence direction of attention included: intensity; brightness; contrast; colour; n velty; complexity; and incongruity. o Intensity. Berlyne (1960) states that the intensity of stin ulation Is seen In "the frequency of nerve impulses and the number of fibers activated" (p.170) in the reticular arousal system. Generally, large stimuli are more Intense than small stimuli; "warm" colours (e.g. red) are more Intense anc arousing than "cold" colours (e.g. blue); high-frequency sounds are mo e Intense than low frequency sounds; and (in cats and mon 'keys) painful stl ull are most intense, @ followed by proprioceptive, auditory, and visual stimuli spectively. Berlyne e rce efi found that attention was attracted by relatively intense mull - for example, to '06 larger than to smaller circles; to brighter than to mmer visual stimuli. a@tl Intensity Is related to brightness, which also appears to at ract attention. Colour. Infants preferred looking at colour to lookino at black and white stimuli. Adults' attention was attracted more to a colou d stimulus than to a white one (Berlyne, 1960). Contrast. It was found that attention was attracted to a lighter stimulus on black and medium grey backgrounds, and to a darker stimulus on a white background. So, contrast with the background attracted attention. Above we saw that brightness also attracts attention. When p, senting subjects with stimuli which differed from, their background to equal GKtents but in different directions, It was found that subjects were more likely to respond to the lighter stimulus - that Is, In the absence of a contrast differerce, brightness was a secondary determinant of attention (McDonnell, 1968). Novelty. This can be defined as an unusual combinati n of parts of various objects, or a change from the kind of stimulus to whioh the organism has recently been exposed (Stotland & Canon, 1972). It has repeatedly been found that novel stimuli attract more attention than familiar stimuli (e.g. Langer, Fiske, Taylor & Chanowitz, 1976; Berlyne, 1958), thoug the effect of novelty declines over time (perhaps as the subject habituates to the stimulus and ApprovedORYFWAThse 2000/08/08 : COMDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 L9Z jo ainqplle P9Aj0A9 ula eq Am uoildemed isd se jejosul *wsluLBjo e4l ol IL-ejql jo pooi jeqlie 81801Pul ABW seinjue; qons se ilnwils JOAOU PUB BUIAOLU 'Bullseilum 'i,qBuq ol pualle ol wsjue6jo Aue jol Mljdape AlpauminjOAe eq ol woes p1nom 11 'JOA(MOH Usninwits isd. et4l 0i asiliejeueB jou Am sollslieloBiep snlnwlis 6uoqqBjB-uoi),uejje uo Mojophd wojj s6ui UR eAoqL, e4l IL-ql penbie eq Am 11 sesues umouN ino 411M lp mideoied ol iBliwis si uolideoied isd jo ssoooid eqj jo4le4m jualo 19A jou si 11 sV volluallu sledwoo (JUBLUBAOLU jo einjael a) e6uep sninwils IL,41 uees Apeeile eAB4 em PUB 'AlleAOU/AlIXeldwoo snlnwlts 10 joedse je4joule Aldwis SB popieBei eq U80 IU8LUGA0YY '(I-L6 @ 'IsOd V in4liVoVy !9L6 L '18 '48 Je6ue-j -6-0) suoilenils lepos U.1 u0ijuaip paille Ile llnwils IGAOU PUB BUIAOLU 'BUJISBAIUOD 'ILIBIlq IL,41 punol IslueweBpnl lasneo s,eldoed uo iinwils juailes ;o eouenljui 841 uo@ejnjejopj e4l BUlmelAeJ '(9L60 e)is!j uesnS PUB joIAL-j_ AeII94S suoilenils xeldwoo PUB ollsilecu ejow 4onw ol asiliejeueB umo sBuipuil Apee ese4i lew uMO4S 0AU4 suoijunils L, os ui juawe6pnf lesneo ue=4 e. nis JU808i OJOLU JeAeMOtl 'UOIILIIUE)sejd !0 10 S lp I sninwils oidoosolsipel elliels Apiel esn 01 popU81 9AoqB pouillno pieesai e4.L ,jusnoie S,WsluBBio uB ol Builnql.jluoo se ueas eje AlInAumul PUB Allsuejul 'Apeldwoo 'AIIOAOU snlnwlls sla 4ons siolol3l PUB IslianplAIPUl 10@ meseeldun si lesnom ellpl ool jo qonw o0l J04)!e :ILsnojia jo 1BA81 wnwodo ue Nees eldood linoin4eq 00UBP!0AB-peojdde jo.jelliee uoissn3sip e4l 4)!m juals;iU00 -IB41 Selels OSIL, U01JUejjB OAIIDOIE)S 10 SIUBUIWJ818P 041 U0 40JEesei S14JL '(1396 @ lAejjjer'OM 'euAlie1g) Al!xeldwoo snlnwils Aq Aped peuiwjelep OsIB si sllnpB jo uoijualle e4l PUB suielled lensiA xeldwoo AIOAIIL318J 01 Pei3BJIIB WE SIUBJUI '8Aildepe AlpTauoilniOAG eq ol peloedxe eq lq6iw qDl4m esuodsei B - e6uup snlnwils ol puelle ol polledwoo woes suewnH -96uep snlnwils OAJOAUI qioq ino juiod uoueo T puelloiS sB 'puB lpaiinlq SM0J6 A119AOU PUB Apxeldwoo Ueem1eq uolloullslp 041 'uoijBuiwBxe iepun *uollue)M IMAM 04 (996t) euAlies Aq punol sem 'AIIOAOU PUB AlIxeldwoo qioq ol pejejej AIJU8PIAB 'AllruBuooul '(ZL6L 'U0UVD V PUBIJOIS) PBAIOAUI sped 941 Buitui6elul jo Allnoillp e4l PUB Isped ese4l Buowe eouejejj!p lp oei6op 041 ,sessessod snlnwils ia pi4m spBd ejqe4sin6uijsjp jo joqwnu eqj se pauilep eq um S14.L -AlIxeld U103 sjTauqjBw je6jBj eqj ul e6uup einuiw-IsBI B sem eja4l ue4m. pennooo slInsei jellwis PUB I.Alsnoeueluods epuw ejam juawpedxe 041 Ul SeBUB40 peounoumun ueqm owea sllnsei 6ullsojejul ejow eqj 10 8WOS. 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For parapsychologists, these findings suggest that: I stim I! which are likely to attract the attention of our experimental participants and consequently make successful GESP targets may possess the following characteristics In some (as yet unspecified) degree or form: movement, complexity, novelty, incongruity, contrast, colour, brightness and intensity; and, 2. these attent!@n-determlning target characteristics must be present at moderate levels - too muc and our subjects will be overwhelmed, too little and they will be bored. SOME LIMITATIONS OF THIS PAPER Although this paper may seem to have rambled over a wide ra ge of subjects, It has mainly been restricted to a consideration of targets' physical @eatures, and has not examined in any depth the Idea that "the target" is in part definc d by the experimental participant's own personal reactions to and interactions with It. Taylor & Fiske (1978) considered some ways in which the salience of a stimulus may be influenced by factors Independent of the actual physical stimulus characteri ics, and the following table summarizes their findings. s@ Table 2 (after Taylor & Fiske, 1978) Determinants of Selective Attention Properti'es of Stimuli Brightness Contrast Movement Novelty Properties of Situation Environmental Cues Instructional Set Properties of Perceiver Temporary Need States Enduring Individual Differences In Traits, Reinforcement Schedules, Schemas As Table 2 suggests, properties of a situation and properties of the perceiver may influence what aspects of an Individual's environment, or a free-response target, appear as salient to any Individual. For Instance, If a person Is hungry then food will become especially salient to that individual. An Individual's cognitive schemata will play some part in determining the direction of his or her attention (Stotland & Canon, Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIAAWP96-00789RP03100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 ft arm ff-lam @Ar__ ME %@t Science Applications International Corporation An Employee-Owned Company September 16, 1993 Defense Intelligence Agency Boiling AFB, DT-5 Washington, D.C. 20340-6150 Attention: SGU Reference: MDA908-93-C-0004 Data Item No. A001 SGU Project Periodic Status Report Dear @ As you know, we are required by the official contract to deliver formal reports. So, here is our Periodic Status Report deliverable dated 10 September 1993. We are required by contract to distribute the deliver- ables according to the Contract Data Requirements List. Although it specifies the reports should be mailed to RSQ-4, I am sending them to you for the final distribution: "'X X-X-X-X.X-X ....... x'x Requiring OfficeFinal Report Copies DIA/DT-5A 2 RSQ-4 1 Also, please contact whomever it is that tracks these deliverables to let them know you have received both the draft and the final reports. If you have arty questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at (415) 325 - 8292. Sincerely, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION Edwin C. May, Ph.D. Director, Cognitive Sciences Laboratory cc Tbm Albert/w/enclosure Joe Angelo/w/enclosure Betty MuzioAv/o/enclosure file 10 10 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P. 0. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 (415) 325-8292 Q,hA15p6Vgbd.FdYpg& fegg &,,20 tf6,/ft&8 L.8 . &ALRb"M-'Cf(Yt§MfttTbbol~Vbblo-n4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Science Applications International Corporation An Employee-Owned Company April 23, 1993 Defense Intelligence Agency Bolling AFB, DT-5 Washington, D.C. 20340-6150 Attention: SGU Reference: MDA908-93-C-0004 SGU 01-0187-03-3880-XXX Status and Management Report Dearm As you know, we are required by the official contract to deliver formal reports. So, here is our Status and Management Report deliverable dated. We are required by contract to distribute the deliverables accord- ing to the Contract Data Requirements List. Although it specifies the reports should be mailed to RSQ-4, I am sending them to you for the final distribution: NO. X Requiring OfficeFinal Report Copies ODT-S 2 DPP-4 1 L_ j Also, please contact whomever it is that tracks these deliverables to let them know you have received both the draft and thefinal reports. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me at (415) 325-8292. Sincerely, SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION eavot e. OUV Edwin C. May, Ph.D. Director, Cognitive Sciences Laboratory cc Tom Albert/w/enclosure Joe AngeloAv/enclosure Betty Muzio/w/o/enclosure file 10 10 El Camino Real, Suite 330, P. 0. Box 1412, Menlo Park, CA 94025 * (415) 325-8292 OthASAIC Offices: Ab B lorado Sp as MgLean, Oak R'd Orlando Palo Alto Seattle Tucson pproved"MIGN rNW16616, A . dTk-'k"- 0 78 L)P9 _ 0 '§RO03100120001-4 CPYRGHf Pproved For Release 2000/08108 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 1972). If a person has a phobia of spiders, then a picture of a spider will be very salient to that person, while it may have no Impact on another person who has a phobia about water. If we as researchers instruct our experimental participants to attend to one aspect of their environment, then that feature will become salient to them. So, we see that there are many Influences on what makes target characteristics grab attention, and it is unwise to restrict our view to physical target characteristics alone. Nevertheless, these conclusions about the salience of physical target characteristics remain valid so long as it is appreciated that they do not give the whole picture. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The present paper considered theoretical ideas of what might be expected to make a successful free-response GESP target. I . Popular literature on the training of psychic powers suggested that emotional impact and human interest content made good targets. A survey of patterns seen in spontaneous cases seemed to support these observations: the bulk of the information transmitted concerned negative events related to humans, though reporting bias accounted for some of this pattern. While parapsychologists could not physically harm their subjects, it was suggested that the emotional Impact seen In spontaneous cases could be Incorporated Into target material for experimental research, as observations from spontaneous cases suggested that such targets might be expected to have more success in an experimental setting than trivial or Impersonal targets. 2. Varied theoretical suggestions by parapsychologists an what might make a good target suggested that meaningful, emotional and potent targets could be expected to be successful in GESP research. Studies of characteristics of good targets In conventional psychophysiology suggested that targets in parapsychology should stand out from their background. This might be achieved by having the target event occur suddenly, be discrete in time and be "Important" to the percipient. Several parallels were noted between subliminal and psi perception. From perceptual defence and vigilance effects seen In subliminal perception it was suggested that, paradoxically, while some parapsychological subjects might be expected to psi-miss with negative emotional targets, others might psi-hit with such targets. It was suggested that the Repression- Sensitization Scale, diagnostic of an Individual's tendency to be defensive or vigilant, might be useful to parapsychologists wishing to pursue these ideas. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 259 ApmrovPOcFare9~lv"9WffldW gCQb%fWM6vWTEl1BR described. Firstly, from environmental psychology greater attention should be given to the subject's errotional target stimuli, and that, from the connection approach-avoidance, the use of negative emotive SUML more likely to arouse our experimental participants a than neutral or bland stimuli. Secondly, research attention was attracted by stimuli which were re contrasting, colourful, novel, complex and Incongn moderate levels. Similarly, social psychology, usiig realistic settings than attention research, found that br and novel stimuli attracted attention. 4. Some of the limitations of this paper were noted: tl on physical target characteristics without considering properties of the perceiver and the environment on wl stimuli would appear salient to any individual. Ne presented here were valid In their relevance to con! question given that this paper does not present exhaustive overview of the subject of targets In paraps) )@3tW@d12Wtftn were it was suggested that response to the between arousal and li could on the whole be id attract their attention )n attention found that atively Intense, bright, ous - though only at more complex and ght, moving, contrasting ere was a narrow focus inevitable influences of at aspects of the target @ertheless, the findings iderations of the target a comprehensive and .hological research. We have seen that there Is some consistency in the sugges Ions of popular "psychic training" literature, spontaneous cases, and parapsychologists' theoretical Ideas on the likely characteristics of successful GESP targets. Those findings appear to suggest that our targets should be psychologically salient and physically salient: 1. targets in parapsychological research should be mea. ingful, have emotional Impact and human Interest - this may make them salient In the minds of our experimental participants; 2. targets should also be physically salient by standing out from their backgrounds - properties such as movement, novelty, complexity, incongruity, brightness and contrast tend to make stimuli physically salient. CPYRGHT Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-F?&96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 rPYRr,HT Berlyne, D.E. (1958) The influence of complexity and novelty in visual figures on orienting responses. Journal of Experimental Psychology, 55, 289-296. Berlyne, D.E. (1960) Conflict, Arousal, and Curiosity- McGraw-Hill, New York. Berlyne, D.E. (1970) Attention as a problem in behaviour theory. In D.I. MostofSky (Ed.) Attention: Contemporary Theory and Analysis. Appleton-Century-Crofts, New York. Boswell, H.A. (1969) Master Guide to Psychism. Lancer, New York. Braud, W.G. (1975) Psi-conducive states. Journal of Communication, 25, 142-152. Braud, W.G. (1982) Nonevident psi. Parapsychology Review, 13,16-18. Brown, W.P. (1961) Conceptions of perceptual defence. British Journal of Psychology Monograph, supplement no. 35. Burns, J. (1981) Your Innate Psychic Powers. Sphere, London. Byrne, D. (1961) The repression-sensitization scale: rationale, reliability, and validity. Journal of Personality, 29, 335-349. Bryn8, D. (1963) Relation of the revised Repression-Sensitization Scale to measures of self-description. Psychological Reporls, 13, 323-334. Byrne, D. (1964) Repression-Sensitization as a dimension of personality. In B.A. Maher (Ed) Progress in Experimental Personality Research, Volume 1, Academic Press, New York. Corcoran, D.W.J. (1965) Personality and the inverted-U relation. British Journal of Psychology, 56, 267-274. Crandall, J. Conversation held in Psychology Department, University of Edinburgh, spring 1988. Delanoy, D. Conversation held In Psychology Department, University of Edinburgh, spring 1988. Delanoy, D. (1988) Characteristics of successful free-response targets: experimental findings and observations. Paper submitted for presentation at the 1988 Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association 9(;1 CPYRGHT LOW1211111tf, IWO. St. Paul, Minnesota. Dixon, N. (1981) Preconscious Processing. John Wiley& Edwards, H. (no date) A Guide for the Development of Association of Great Britain, London. Pn, Chichester. Spiritualist Jeffrey, W.E. (1968) The orienting reflex and attention in cognitive development. Psychological Review, 75, 323-334. Langer, E.J., Fiske, S., Taylor, S.E. & Chanowitz, B. (19 discomfort: a novel-stimulus hypothesis. Journal of ExpeA 12, 451-463. Le Shan, L. (1977) The purpose of psi. Journal of Research, 49, 637-643. McArthur, LZ & Post, D.L. (1977) Figural emphasis and of Experimental Social Psychology, 13, 520-535. McBain, W.N., Fox, W., Kimura, S., Nakanishl, M., Quasi-sensory communication: An Investigation using accentuated affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psyc McDonnell, P. (1968) Effects of Intensity, contrast and nov and free-choice reaction time. Unpublished doctoral the., Cited In Berlyne, D.E. (1970) Attention as a problem In Mostofsky (Ed.) Attention: Contemporary Th Appleton-Century-Crofts, New York. Mehrabian, A. & Russell, J.A. (1974) An Approach to MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Stigma, staring, and il Social Psychology, Society for Psychical perception. Journal Tfrado, J. (1970) intIc matching and 14, 281-291. on selective attention University of Toronto. havlor theory. In D.I. y and Analysis. Psychology. Morris, R.L. (1977) The Airport Project: A survey of the@ techniques for psychic development advocated by popular books. In J.D. Morris, W.G. Roll & R.L. Morris (Eds) Research in Parapsychology 1976, Scarecrow Press, Metuchen, N.J. Nash, C.B. (1980) Characteristics of psi communication. 11,17-22. Powell, 1. (1979) How to be More Psychic. Sphere, London. Roll, W.G. & Harary, K. (1976) Target responses during ou report by G. Solfvin of 1976 SERPA Conference, Parapsychc Roney-Dougal, S.M. (1981) The interface between psi a Parapsychology Review, 12, 12-18. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789F 262 Review, lody experiences. In Review, 7, 1-7. subliminal perception. 03100120001-4 CPYRG Roney-Dougal, S.M. (1986) Subliminal and psi perception: a review of the literature- Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 53, 405-434. Schmeidler, G. (1972) Respice, Adspice, Prospice. In W.G. Roll, R.L. Morris & J.D. Morris (Eds) Proceedings of the Parapsychological Association (1971), 8, Parapsychological Association, Durham, North Carolina. Schouten, S.A. (1979a) Analysis of spontaneous cases. Research Letter, 9, Parapsychology Laboratory, University of Utrecht, 55-62. Schouten, S.A. (19796) Analysis of spontaneous cases as reported in 'Phantasms of the Living'. European Journal of Parapsychology, 2, 408-455. Schouten, S.A. (1982) Analysing spontaneous cases: a replication based on the Rhine collection. European Joumal of Parapsychology, 4, 113-158. Schouten, S.A. (1986) A different approach for studying psi. In B. Shapin & L Coly (Ed1s) Current Trends in Psi Research (1984), Parapsychology Foundation, Now York. Sherman, H. ('1960) Know Your Own Mind. Anthony, New York. Sondow, N., Braud, L. & Barker, P. (1981) Target qualities and affect measures In an exploratory psi ganzfeld. Proceedings, 24th Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association. Stotland, E. & Canon, L.K. (1972) Social Psychology.- A Cognitive Approach. W.B. Saunders, Philadelphia. Targ, R. (1987) 1986 Esalen Conference. Parapsychology Review, 18, 6-8. Tart, C.T. (1982) Physiological correlates of psi reception: some methodological considerations. In Proceedings, PA & SPR Combined Jubilee and Centenary Conference. Tart, C.T. (1987) cited In Targ, R. 1986 Esalen Conference. Parapsychology Review, 18, 6-8. Taylor, S.E. & Fiske, S.T. (1978) Salience, attention, and attribution: top of the head phenomena. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 11, 249-288. Ullman, M. & Krippner, S. (1973) Dream Telepathy. Penguin, Baltimore. Williams, L.B. & Duke, M. (1979) Qualities of free-response targets and their relationship to psi performance. Proceedings, 22nd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association - Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 263 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 n Q T 1- 1-1, X S'N f T T X T T C" A 'Ir T t-'% IXT -1-LJV 1-01 k_,jkJIV1IV1 U IN I %-Arl I I k-JN I i N I -t I @L' C-3y A INT Z' Ft El 11 D FIXIIERIMENTS WITH AN AUTOMATEI)TESTING SYSTFIM AND A COMPARISON WITH A MEA'A-ANALYSIS OF F.ARLIF.R STUDIF.S BY CHARLEs HONORTON, RIGK E. BERGER, MARIO 1. VARVOGLIS, MARTA QUANT, PATRICIA DF.RR, Ei,ilRAIM 1. SCHEGII-11'.R, AND DIANE C. FERRARI ABSTRACT: A toinpulci-miltiolk-d Icsting sysicill was lisud ill I I E-Xim-lillit'llis oil ganzfeld psi communication. I-lie automated ganzfeld system controls target selection and picsCilialioll, subjects' blind-judging, and data 1-ccording and slorage. Vidco- taped targets included video segments (dynamic targets) as well as single images (static targets). Two hundred and forty-one volunteer subjects completed 355 psi ganzfeld sessions. The subjects, oil it blind basis, correctly identified randomly se- lected and remotely viewed targets to a statistically significant degree, z = 3.89, p = .00005. Stud), outcomes were homogeneous across the I I series and eight different experimenters. Performance on dynamic targets was highly significant, z = 4.62, p = .0000019, its was the difference between dynamic and static targets, p = .002. Suggestively stronger perfOrIllanCe OCCUrred wall fricilds than wilh 111lacquailitcd sender/receiver pairs, p = .0635. 'File automated ganzfeld study outconies are com- pared with a meta-analysis of 28 earlier ganzfeld studies. The two data sets are con- SiStClIt Oil fOUr dimensions: Overall success rate, impact of d) namic and static targets, effect ofsender/receiver acquaintance, and print ganzfeld experience. The combined z for all 39 studies is 7.53, p = 9 X 10-14. Research on psi communication in the ganzfeld developed as the result of earlier research StiggCsting thift pSi functioning Is fi-e- cluently associated with internal imention states brought about This work was supported fly the James S. McDonnell Foundation ol'St. Louis, Missouri, and by the John E. I@etzer Foundation of Kalamazoo, Michigan. We %visit to thank Marilyn J. Schlitz, Peter Rojcewicz, and Rosemarie Pilkington for their help in recruiting participants; Daryl .1. Bent of Cornell University and Donald McCarthy of"St. Johns University foi helpful comments oil all carlicr draft of this paper; Edwin C. May of SRI International I-or performing the audio spectrum analysis; and Robert Rosenthal of llarvard Univcrsity for suggeslions concerning data analysis. We also wish to thank several IIRL colleagues who contributed in var- ious ways to the work reported here: Nancy Sondow for assistance in the preparation relaxation exercise and instruction tape that was used throughout, and George Hansen and Linda Moore who served frequently as lab senders. Hansen also pro- vided technical assistance and conducted a data audit resulting in the correction of several minor errors that appearcd in a version of this report pi-csented at the 32nd Annual Convention of the Parapsychological Association. Finally, we thank the 241 volunteer participants for providing us with such interesting data. CPYRGHT Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 100 Die lonrytal of Pa ra/im-11 ology through dreaming, hypnosis, meditation, and similar nalurally oc- curring or artificially Induced sLaLes (Braud, 1978- Flonorton, 1977). -ghis generalization, based on converging evidence fi-om sponta- -Wous case studies, clinical observations, and experimental Studies, Eld to the development of a low-level descriptive model of psi func- rrning, according to which, internal attention states facilitate psi de- CL-tion by attenuating sensory and somatic stimull that normally TMsk weaker psi input (Honorton, 1977, 1978). This "noise-reduc- R)n" model . thus identified sensory dcprivafion as a key to the 1"re- Pent association between psi communication and internal attention MLes, and the ganzfeld procedure was developed specifically to :est Ile impact of perceptual isolation on psi performance. Fifteen years have passed since the initial reports of psi com- Munication in the ganzfeld (Braud, Wood, & Bratid, 1975; immorton & Harper, 1974; Parker, 1975). Dozens ol'additional psi 5J enzfeld studies have appeared since then, and the success of the Sradigm has triggered substantial critical interest. Indeed, there is ;6least one critical review or commentary for every ganzfeld study Mporting significant evidence of psi communication (Akers, 1984; cock, 1986; Blackmore, 1980, 1987; Child, 1986; Druckman & ,8. ets, 1988; Harley & Matthews, 1987; Harris & Rosenthal, 1988; `l'o'norton, 1979, 198.3, 1985; Havehiiann, 1986; Hyman, 1983, 5, 1988; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Kennedy, 1979; McClenon, 26; Palmer, 1986; Palmer, Honorton, & Utts, 1989; Parker & '40klund, 1987; Rosenthal, 1986; Sargent, 1987; Scott, 1986; nford, 1984, 1986; Stokes, 1986; Utts, 1986). qDf the many controversies spanning the history of parapsycholog- ical inquiry, the psi ganzfeld domain is unique in three respects. I%st, the central issue involves the replicability of a theoretically bMed i chnique rather than the special abilities o exceptional in- cSiduals (Honorton, 1977). Second, meta-analytic techniques have bg-n used to assess statistical significance, effect size, and potential t1meats to validity (Harris & Rosenthal, 1988; Honorton, 1985; 42man, 1985, 1988; Rosenthal, 1986). Third, investigators and crit- 1drDhave agreed on specific guidelines for the conduct and evaluation oPfuture psi ganzfeld research (Hyman & Honorton, 1986). I Tte Automated Ganzfeld Testing System Psi ganzfeld experiments typically involve four participants. The subject (or receiver, R) aiienipts to gain Iargel-relevillu illiageyy while in the g. anzfeld; following the ganzFeld/iniagery period. R Pst ConinninicallOn in the Gau@feld 101 tries-on a blind basis-to identify the actual target from among four possibilities. A physically isolated sender (Se) views the targ et and attempts I communicate salient aspects of it to R. Two exper to I imenters (Es) are usually required. One E manages R, elicits R's ver- bal report of ganzfeld imagery (mentation), and supervises R's blind judging of the target and decoys; a second E supervises Se. and ran- domly selects and records the target. We developed an automated ganzfeld testing system ("autoganz- feld") to eliminate potential methodological problems that were identified in earlier ganzfeld studies (Honorton, 1979; Hyman & Honorton, 1986; Kennedy, 1979) and to explore factors associated with successful performance. The system provides computer control of target selection and presentation, blindjUdging, subject feedback, and data recording and storage (Berger & Honorton, 1986). A com- puter-controlled videocassette recorder (VCR) accesses and auto- matically presents target stimuli to Se. A second E is required only for assistance in target selection The system includes an experimen- tal design module through which E specifies the sample size and status of a new series. The system was designed to enable further assessment of factors identified with successful performance in earlier ganzfeld studies. Differences in target type and sender/receiver acquaintance seem to be particularly important. Significantly better performance occurred in studies using dynamic rather than static targets. Dynamic targets contain multiple images reinforcing a central theme, whereas static targets contain a single image. Also, studies permitting subjects to have friends as their senders yielded significantly superior perfor- mance compared to those requiring subjects to work,with laboratory Analysis" in the Results section.) The autoganzfeld system uses both dynamic and static targets. The dynamic targets are excerpts from films; static targets irfclude art work and photographs. Receivers may, if they choose, bring friends or family members to serve as their senders; a session setup module registers the sender type and other session information. In this report, we present the results of the I I autoganzfeld series conducted between the inauguration of the experiments in February, 1983, and September, 1989, when funding problems- required suspension of the PRL research program.' We focus on ' This article conforms to the reporting guidelines recommended by Hynian and Honorton (1986). Because oftlic size of diis database, liowcvcr, it is not practic4l to 0 U Psi Communication i n the Ganzfeld 103 (1) evidence for psi in the autoganzfeld situa'tion, (2) the impact of dynamic versus static targets, (3) the effects of sender/receiver ac- quaintance, (4) the impact of prior psi ganzf'eld exnerience. and (5) a comparison of' these four iactors with the outcomes ofearlier nor5ptomated psi ganzf'eld experiments. Our fiiydings on demo- gr hic, psychological, and target factors will be presented in later re rts. Su ICIS n (Yhe participants are 100 men and 141 women ranging in age fro 17 to 74 years (mean = 37.3, SD = 11.8). This is a well edited group; the mean formal education is 15.6 years (SD = 2.0 ur primary sources of recruitment include referrals from col lea es (24%), media presentations concerning PRL research (23%), t frie&s or acquaintances of PRL staff (20%), and referrals from othig participants (18%). &Iief in psi is strong in this population. On a seven-point scale wh6iFt "I" indicates strong disbelief and "T' indicates strong belief in Ps, the mean is 6.20 (SD = 1.03); only two participants rated their belief in psi below the midpoint of the scale. Personal experi- encE2 suggestive of psi were reported by 88% of the subjects; 80% 'Pted ostensible telepathic experience repq s. Eighty percent of the parWipants have had some training in meditation or other tech- niq Pas involving internal focus of attention. to Par Ticipant Orientation Q Q igtial contact. New participants receive an information pack be- forec4heir first session. The information pack includes a 55-item per- son;9history survey (Participant Information Form [PIF]; Psyclio- phygal Research Laboratories, 1983), Form F of the Myers-Briggs T YP8 Indicator (MB*1'1; Briggs & Myers, 1957), general information abox!) the research program, and directions for reaching PRL. Par- tici is usually return the completed questionnaires before their firstsession. However, if new participants are scheduled on short notiQ, they either complete the questionnaires at PRL or, in a few cas A ej,at home after the session. include the data in an appendix to the report. instead, we will supply the data to qualified investigators in a 1-otus-compatible, MS-DOS computer disk file.There is a small fee to cover materials and mailing. Address inquiries to the Journal. Whenever possible, new participants are encouraged to come in for a preliminary orientation session, prior to their first PRL ganz- "I'd session. '11 te" session '-r JK: I I he orientation serves as a gct dLtfUd111 U participants and the PRL staff I and introduces participants to the PRL program and facility. Participants who avail themselves of this option generally complete the MBTI and PIF questionnaires during the orientation session. We inform new participants that they may bring a friend or family member to serve as their sender. When a participant chooses not to do so, a PRL staff member serves as sender. We encourage participants to reschedule their session rather than feel they must come in to "fulfill an obligation" if they are not feeling well. Session orientation. We greet participants at the door when they arrive and attempt to create a friendly and informal social atmos- phere. Coffee, tea, and soft drinks are available. E and other staff members engage in conversation with R during this period. When a laboratory sender is used, time is taken for sender and receiver to become acquainted. If the participant is a novice, we describe the rationale and back- grou .nd of the ganzfeld research, and we seek to create positive ex- pectations concerning R's ability to identify the target. This infor- mation is tailored to our perception of the needs of the individual participant, but it generally includes four elements: (1) a brief re- view of'experiiiiental, clinical, and spontaneous case trends indicat- ing that ESP is more readily detected during internal attention states such as dreaming, hypnosis, and meditation (Honorton, 1977), (2) the notion that these states all involve physical relaxation and functional sensory deprivation, suggesting that weak ESP impies- sions may be more readily detected when perceptual and somatic noise is reduced, (3) the development of the ganzfeld technique to test this noise-reduction hypothesis, and (4) the long-term succesi of the ganzfeld technique as a means of facilitating psi commupication in unsclected subjects. We encourage "goal orientation" and discourage excessive "task orientation" during the session; this is especially emphasized with participants who appear to be anxious or overly concerned about their ability to succeed in the ganzfeld task. We discourage partici- pants from analyzing their mentation during the session, and tell them that they will have an opportunity to analyze their mentatio'n during thejudging procedure. They are encouraged to adopt the role of an O'utside observer of their mental processes during the ganzfeld. Again, this is emphasized with those who appear anNious 104 7hejournal of Parapsychology about their performance; they are advised to relax, follow the taped instructions, and to simply allow the procedure to work. We in1`01,111 pa*icipants that they may experience various types of correspond en:8 between their mentation and the target; they are told that they magexperience direct, literal correspondences to the target, but that th should also be prepared for correspondences involving distor I tiol or transformations of the target content, cognitive associations, ati(+nsimilarities in emotional tone. Finally, we orient new partici- palRs to where Se and E will be located during the session. M METHOD Layni and Equipment and Se are sequestered in nonadjacent, sound-isolated and eleZically shielded rooms. Both rooms are copper-screened, and areg4 ft apart on opposite sides of E's monitoring room, which pro- video the only access. R and Se remain isolated in their respective roogl until R completes the blind-judging procedure. room is an Industrial Acoustics Corp., IAC 1205A Sound- ISO Watsion Room, consisting of two 4-inch sbeetrock-filled steel pa s. The two panels are separated by a 4-inch air space, for a tottickness of one foot. &e inside walls and ceiling of Se's room are covered with 4-inch Son&'!D acoustical material, similar to that used in commercial bro cast studios. A free-standing Sonex-covered plywood barrier _e (5 feavide by 8 ft high) positioned inside the sender's room, between Se hair and the acoustical door, blocks sound transmission Mg d e Ko-o-r-pla-nof the ex ID 9 pertlaental rooms. 19occupies a console housing the computer system and other equ!Rment. The computer is an Apple 11 Plus with two disk drives, a pmter, and an expansion chassis. The computer peripherals in- clucs a real-time clock, a noise-based random number generator (RNB), a Cavri Interactive Video Interfacel-4, an Apple game pad- dle,.4nd a fan. Other equipment includes a color TV monitor, the VCR used to access and display targets, and three electrically iso- lated audiocassette recorders. One audiocassette recorder presents audio stimuli (prerecorded relaxation exercises, session instructions, and white noise). Another plays background music during the ex- perimental setup. The third records R's ganzfeld mentation and PsiCommunication in the Ganzfeld 105 X D blowall with V > I " Acoustical L industrial Acoustics -0 S P n 1205A Sound dig and acousti-0 ,4.Co cal door -1 G lation Room 0 g SP14DER RECEIVER RE -n 0 -1 X Irs equipmentSCALE CD console 0 EXPERIMUNMR S rt - Figure 00 1. Floor plan of experimental suite. judging period associations. There is two-way intercom communi- cation between E and R. One-way audio communication from R to 0 Se allows Se to listen to R's ganzfeld mentaLion. > Receiver Preparation R sits in a comfortable reclining chair in the IAC room. Se keeps R company while E prepares R for visual and auditory ganzfeld stimulation. Translucent hemispheres are taped over R's eyes with -4 - 00 Micropore(a tape. Headphones are placed over R's ears. A clip-on co microphone is fastened to R's collar. A 600-watt red-filtered X light, located approximately 6 ft in front of R's face, is adjusted in 0 C4 intensity until R reports a comfortable, shadow-free, homogeneo*us _1 visual field. White noise level is similarly adjusted; R is informed oc:, that the white noise should be as loud as possible without being an- noying or uncomfortable. The ganzfeld light and white noise inten- 0 sity are adjusted from E's console after R and Se are sequestered in their respective rooms. Sender Preparation Se sits in*a comfortable reclining chair in the sender's room. Se faces a color'TV monitor, wearing headphones. During the session, Se can hear R's mentation report through one headphone; if dy- < I UO i ne j ournat oj rarapsycnotogy namic targets are used, Se hears the target audio channel through the other headphone. Series Manager Setup Procedures -0 E accesses the autoganzfeld computer program through the Se 4 Manager software. Series Manager is a password -protected, menu cQiven control program. it provides the only means throughl which r 10 experimenter may specify parameters for the series design, reg- ati i&Wr new participants in the se .ries, set up a session, and run a ses- In. The Series Manager menu is accessed through entry of it private (16d nonechoing) password. (D Series design. A valid series design must exist before sessions can b run in an experimental series. This is done through the Series 1@% anager "design" module. The design module prompts E to specify tg type of series (pilot, screening, or formal), the number of participants, the maximum number of trials per participant, the t&I number of trials per series, and the series name. There is no Mvision for changing the series design once it is accepted by E. L ign parameters are saved in a disk file; they are passed to the & . ediperimental program at the beginning of the session. Participant registration. When R is new to a series, E accesses Qrticipant Registration" frorn the Series Manager menu before the stion. E is prompted to enter R's name and identification number. le. module verifies that the maximum number of participants sFocified in the design is not exceeded. (An err-or message appears ifoln attempt is made to register more participants than are speci- fi& in the design; then, control is returned to the Series Manager _Jmnu.) iu:5 OoSession setup. E then selects "Session Setup" from the Series Man- men ato u. E is prompted to enter R's name and the program ver that R has not already completed the maximum number of t-A is specified in the design module. (An error message appears if acparticipant has completed the number of sessions allowed for the sLaes or hits not been properly registered; control is flien reitirned tWthe Series Manager menu.) E enters Se's name and the sender Q le: lab, lab friend, or friend. Lab senders are PRL staff members ose acquaintance with the participant is limited to the experi rrtnt. Lab ftiend refers to PRI. staff' senders w1io have some social acquaintance with R outside the laboratory. Friend senders are friends or family members of the participant. Finally, E enters the ganzfeld light and noise intensity levels and his or her initials. E then leaves Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld 107 the monitoring room while another PRL staff person supervises tar- get selection. Targets The system uses short video segments (@vnainic targets) and still pictures (static targets) as targets. Dynamic targets include excerpts I es, documentaries, and cartoons. Static targets trom motion pictur includ photographs, and magazine advertisements. e art prints, There are 160 targets, arranged in judging sets of four dynamic or four static targets. The sets were constructed to minimize simi- larities among targets within a set. The targets are recorded on four one-half-inch VI-IS format videocassettes; each videocassette con- tains 10 target sets (5 dynamic and 5 static). A signal recorded on an audio track of each videocassette allows computer access of the targets. Target display time-to Se during each sending period and to R during the judging period-is approximately one minute; blank space added to briefer targets insures that the VCR remains in play mode for the same length of time for all targets. Prev'ew packs. The video display format of the autoganzfeld tar- I gets does not permit simultaneous viewing of the entire target set during the judging procedure as is done in many nonautomated ganzfeld studies. Each target set is therefore accompanied by a pre- view pack containing brief excerpts of all four targets in the set; this gives R a general impression of the range of target possibilities. R views the preview pack at the beginning of the judging procedure; it runs approximately 30 sec. Target Selection The target selector (TS) is a PRL staff member who has no con- tact with either E or R until after the blind-judging procedure. TS is needed to load the videocassette containing the target into the VCR. TS is informed which of the four videocassettes contains the target, but remains blind to the target's identity. If Se is a staff member, Se serves this role; otherwise, a staff member not involved in the session serves as TS. (In the latter case, Se and R are seques- tered in their respective rooms before TS enters the monitoring rooni.) The Series Manager program prompts TS to press a key on the computer keyboard. A program call to the hardware RNG obtains the target-value (a number between I and 160) and stores it in,com- 108 TheJournal of Parapsychology puter memory.' The program determines the target set and video- cassette number from the target value. The Videocassette 111.1111ber is ($@played oil tile monitor, and TS is prompted to insert it Into tile Z,R. The program verifies that the correct videocasscite has beell ig-erted and clears tile monitor screen; if' tile videocassette is not C@rrect, ;in error message prompts TS to insert tile correct vidco- Casette. -n' FS places a cardboard cover over the VCR's front panel to Con- coil the digital counters and VU meters. Finally, TS leaves the mon- ijing room with the three remaining videocassettes, knocking tF(cc times oil tile monitoring room door as a signal fin- E to return. ]taxation Exercises and Ganzfeld Instructiom (1) "CR and Se undergo a 11-inin prerecorded relaxation exercise be- D fi& tile mentation/sending period. This provides a unique shared etDerience for R and Se before the ESP task. The relaxation exer- ci!R includes progressive relaxation exercises and autoge-nic phrases (1@obson, 1929; Shultz, 1950). Ganzield instructions are recorded after the relaxation exercise. Thc instrilctions and relaxalioll cx(.I-- ci!G are delivered in a slow, soothing but confident manner with odloan sounds in the background. The style of presentation is similar to;G hypnotic induction procedure. The ganzfeld instructions to R, w14h are also heard by Se, are as follows: guring this experiment we want you to think out lotid. Report all of tile I . c3mages, thoughts, and feelings that pass through your mind. Do not !51ing to any of them. Just ObSerVC them as they go by. At some point 001uring the session, we will send you the target information. Do not try anticipate or conjure up this information. just give you@ se@f the _su- %a . ---CAestm.-rightmOm--i-n-t-h-e-To-r-n-i-oT-m-aling-a wish-that the information ZJill appear in consciousness at the appropriate time. Keep your eyes -open as much as possible during the session and allow your conscious- gess to flow through the sound you will hear through the headphones. 49ne of us will be monitoring you in the other room. Now get as com- ?Iwtable as possible. release all conscious hold of your body, ;ill([ allow 8to relax completely. As soon as you begin observing your mental proc- asses. start thinking out loud. Continue to share your thoughts, images, 4&nd feelings with us throughout the session. An exceplion mcurs ist ific iwo iarg(" c-1111-11-is0ii scrics (Scries 301 atid 3112). See pp. 112-113. Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld 109 AlentationlSending Procedures Receiver mentation report. After the relaxation exercise and in- struciions. R listens to the white noise through headphones for 30 minutes. R reports whatever thoughts, images, and feelings occur in tile ganzf',ld. The nientation report is monitored by E and Se fronl their respective rooms. The mentation report is tape recorded, and E takes.detailed notes for review from R prior to judging. Target presentation and sender procedures. A Cavri Video Interface automates computer access and control of targets from a JVC BR- 640OU VCR. Ali electronic video switcher selectively routes tile video output (VCR or computer text mode) to three color TV mon- itors, one each for E, R, and Se. E's and R's monitors remain in computer text mode until thejudging period. During each of the six sending periods, Se's TV monitor is switched from computer text to VCR mode. At the beginning of each sending period, Se's monitor displays tile prompt. "Silently communicate the contents and meaning of the target to [R's first nanieJ." Se views the target an([ at(enipts to com- immicate its contents to R. Se mentally reinfin-ces R for- target- related associations and mentally discourages R when tile mentation is unrelated to the target. judging Procedure After tile mentation period, E turns off the ganzfeld light and reads back R's mentation from the session notes. R remains in ganz- feld during the mentation review to minimize any abrupt shiftin state. E's and R's TV monitors are switched into VCR mode by the - comlJ-u--te-r-,_wKi-ch_a[S_0 -Prompts Se to, --Silently clima _[Ws first t;a-mel to select the target that you saw." Se's TV monitor remains blank (computer mode) during this period. R removes the eye covers and views the preview pack From their respective rooms, R and E then view the four potential targets (tile actual target and three decoys), which are presented in one of four random sequences. R, viewing each candidate, associates to the item as though it were the actual target, describing perceived simi- larities between the item and the ganzfeld mentation. While R as- sociates to each candidate, E points out potential correspondences that R mayllave overlooked.' R views any of the target candidates as often as desired before proceeding to the judging task. 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Alleillom.lowl I! )AOIII ()I a1pped -)t(w,9-.r)ind atil U 1, %0()[ 1 )UP IJ31 XII UO YOO I)all;)qpl si 3le3s aq.1, _1OIIUOw A'L SM uo sieadde u;)qj DIE:)s Bunul iuiod-Op*V 112 I'lie.lournal of 1'arapsyrhology Serie.5 7. ]'his pilot series was a practice series for parficipants who completed the allotted number of sessions in ongoing lorinal se*s but who wanted additional ganzfeld experience. This series an includes several demonstration sessions when TV filin crews were present and provided receiver experience for new PRL staff. TRt sample size was not preset. (D CL Nenice ("First-Timers") Series 0 I ;UThe identification of characteristics associated with successful in- itiff performance was a major goal of' the PRL ganzfeld project (I'D-norton & Schechter, 1987). Except for Series 105, each novice FhV scles includes 50 ganzfeld novices, that is, participants with no pygr ganzfeld experience. Each novice contributed a single ganz- f-c3 session. Most novices had not participated in any psi experiment p9gr to the novice series. eries 101. 'rhis is the first novice series. genes 102. Beginning with this series, R was prompted after the mPRtation period to estimate the number of' minutes since the end 01(@ie relaxalion/instruciions tape. Oeries 103. Starting with this series, Rs were given the option of 11;dUng no sender (i.e., "clairvoyance" condition). Only four particl- p2as opted to have no sender. ;genes 104. A visiting scientist (Marilyn Schlitz) served as E in sectin sessions and as Se in six sessions with subjects from The J uil I liag School in New York. eries 105. 1 ,.6 -his series was started to accommodate the overflow ciguilliard students from Series 104. The sample size was set to 25. SiMsessions were completed at the time the PRL prograrn was sus- pq@;decl. (There were 20 Juilliard students altogether. Sixteen were in!2eries 104 and four were in Series 105.) Q Q Eidnenced Subjects Series Q aenes 201. This series involved especially promising subjects. Tht number of trials was set to 20. Seven sessions by three Rs were colFftpleted at the time the PRL program was suspended. Series 301. This series compared dynamic and static targets. Sample size was set to 50 sessions. Twenty-five experienced subjects each contributed two sessions. The autoganzfeld program was mod- ified for this series so that each R would have one session with dy- Psi Cinn tit sits IcallOn its the Gaiizle'ld 113 11:11nic largels and on(- session with static largels. Subjects were in- forined ol'this only after completing both sessions. * Smes 302. This series used a single dynamic target set (Set 20 > In earlier series, Target 77 ("Ticlal Wave Engulfing Ancient City'v had an especially strong success rate while Target 79 ("High-SpeedCi Sex Trio") had never been correctly identified. We made two pro< (D gram modifications for this series. The target selection ("Random-a ize") routine was modified to select only targets in Set 20, and the-n 0 VCR tape-centering routine was modified to wind the videotape ton a randomly selected position between frame numbers 85,000 ancpu 95,000. The second modification insured that E could not be cuedS 0 perhaps unconsciously, by the time required to wind the tape fromw W its initial position to the target location. (D The study involved experienced Rs who had no prior experienco-o Q with Set 20. Each R contributed one session. Participants were un-a aware of the purpose of the study or that it was limited to one targercD Q set. The design called for the series to continue until 15 sessionsco were completed with each ofthe two targets of interest. Twenty-five;B sessions were completed when the PRL program was suspended. 00 0 Stalistical Analysis > Except for two pilot series, series sample sizes were specified ino advance. Our primary hypothesis was that the observed successto rate-the proportion of correctly identified targets-would reliably aP Q ex ceed the null hypothesis expectation of .25. To test this hypoth-C) I e -4 es s, we calculated the exact binomial probability for the obs 'rved 00 number of direct hits (ranks of 1) with p = .25 and q = .75. Onto the basis of the overwhelmingly positive outcomes ofearlier studies.;U we preset alpha to .05, one-tailed. Q We also tested two secondary hypotheses, based on Oatterns oft-2 success in earlier psi ganzfeld research. These are: (1) thatclynamicS targets are significantly superior to static targets, and (2) that per-" M fOrniance is significantly enhanced when the sender is a friend of R,(D compared to when R and Se are not acquainted. We initially Q Q planned to test these hypotheses by chi-square tests, a trial-based';' analysis. However, a consultant (Dr. Robert Rosenthal) suggested," that a t test using the series as the unit would be a more powerful test of these hypotheses, arid we have followed his recommendation. The remaiiiing analyses are exploratory.-' 'The statistical analyses in this report were performed using SYSTAT JWilkin- Ni Cont tit un trall'On in the Gan@fi,ld 1151 C TABLF I OUTCOME BY SERIES Series N N Hits -Effect si-ze Seriq$,type subjectstrialsN % (h) Z -a 10 I'dol 19 22 M 36 .25 '99 2 Pilot 4 9 3 33 .18 .25 "1 0 3 Pilot 25 36 i 28 .07 .22 < 0 101 Novice 50 50 12 24 -.02 -.30 (D 102 Novice 50 50 18 36 .24 1.60 -n 1030 Novice 50 51) 15 30 .11 .67 104 Novice 50 50 18 36 .24 1.60 105 Novice 6 6 4 67 .87 1.78 CD 201 Experienced3 7 3 43 .38 .69 6 301 Experienced25 50 15 30 .11 .67 0 302 Experienced25 25 16 64 .81 3.93 (1) CD K3 C!l Overall 241 355 122 34 .20 3.89 Note,cUhe z scores are based on the exact binornial probability with p = .25 and .75. CD RESUUI-S Ove Success Rate 4nzfeld hit rate. There were 241 participants, who contributed 355'atoganzfeld sessions. The 122 direct hits (34.4%) yield an exact bincSial p of .00005 (z = 3.89). The effect size, Gohen's h (Cohen, 197'4 is .20. The 95% confidence interval (GI) is a hit rate from 309o"4o 39%. Because this level ofaccuracy would occur about one tilliq5t 20,000 hy chatice, we veject the titill hypothesis. (See Table 1.) .'Scess rate by series. Of the I I series, 10 yield positive outcomes. The4hean series effect size is .29, SD = .29, t (10) = 3.32. Ismogeneity of effect sizes. Traditionally, psi investigators have beer5reoccupied by whether there is a significant nonzero effect. An tt&all .y important issue, however, is the Size ofthe effect. There is a;owing tendency among behavioral scientists to define replic abil Iin terms of the homogeneity of effect sizes (Hedges, 1987; 3V son, 1988). When i tests are reported on samples with unequal variances, they are calculated using the separaLe variances within groups for the error and degrees of freedom following Brownlee (1965). Combined zs are based on Stouffer's method (Rosenthal, 1984). Unless otherwise specified, p levels are one-tailed. TABu. 2 Ourcomt. ity ExPERIMENTER N Hits Effect Experimenter trials N % size (h) Q11alit 106 38 36 .2-1 Honorton 72 27 38 .29 Bet g(@r 53 is 34 .20 Derr 45 12 27 .05 Varvoglis 43 11 26 .03 Schechter 111 5 36 .23 Ferrari 15 9 60 .72 sclilitz 7 2 29 .08 Rosenthal, 1986; Utts, 1986). Two or more studies are replicates oJ one another if their effect sizes are homogeneous. We assess th( homogeneity of effect sizes across the I I series by performing a chi square homogeneity test comparing the effect size for each serie@ with the weighted mean effect size (Hedges, 198 1; Rosenthal, 1984) The fOrmula is: X2(k _ 1) N,(hj - T, )2, where 4- is (lie tiumber of' studies, Nj is the sample size of the ith study, and the weighted mean effect size is: N,hj T N, The test shows that the series effect sizes are not significantly non- homogeneous: X2 = 16.25, 10 df, p = .093. Homogeneity ol'Outconte by Experitnenter Eight Es contributed to the autoganzfeld database. (See Table 2.) All eight experimenters have positive effect sizes. A chi-square ho- inogeneity* test, using the mean effect sizes for each E weighted by sample siz e, indicates that the results are homogeneous across ex- perinienters: X' = 7.13, 7 df, p = .415. 116 The Jwirnal ol Pa)til).@vchoh).4,y TABLE 3 GANZFELD StICCESS IN Rt.i,Ali()N it) Nuhnwk t)FSESSI()N.% No. of sessions as receiver 1 2 3 4 + * abjects 183 23 2-1 11 * PrIls 18:1 -Ili 72 5.1 1 -1 i (M 53 19 31 19 % gils 29 41 43 :15 EffAt size (h) .09 .34 .38 .22 (D Su ct-Ba5ed Analysls Re CD r,Seventy-six percent of' (lie participants (N 183) contributed a sin8e session' as R. Fifty-eight Rs contributed multiple sessions. Pat-- ticg nts with multiple sessions either had direct hits or strongly IRA sug3estive target mentation correspondences in their first session. (Se-c-Table 3.) CRuccess rate by subjects. To test the consistency of ganzfeld perfor- milffe across participants, we use tile siandardized ratings of tile taq;t and decoys (Stanford's z scores; Stanford & Sargent, 1983) its tlie_@@ependent variable. Stanf`OI-d zs are averaged For participants W116nitiltiple sessions. Direct lilis and Stanford zs are highly corre late-0. In this database, N (353) Is .776. The nican Stanford z ('()I- tile 24 Wparticipants is .21 (SD = 1.04), and t (240) = 3.22 (p = .00073). Th695% Cl is a Stanford z front .08 to .35. The ef"fect size (Colien's d; %hen, 1977) is .2 1. (The effect size for subjects is nearly identical to Che trial-based effect size, h = .20.) Thus, there is a general ten W de y for participants to give higher ratings to the autial target t i; to the decoys, and the signil-icance of these experiments is not att utable to exccpliollal perlornialicc by a few oulslailding S116 _L jeckb Q Dy*dmic Versus Static Targets CD CD The success rate for dynamic targets is highly significant. There are.W90 dynamic target sessions and 77 direct hits (40%, h = .32; exact binomial p = 1.9 X 10", z = 4.62). The hit rate flor static targets is not significant (165 trials, 45 hits, 27%, h = .05, p = .276, z = .59). Using the series size as ilic oulcollit, variable aild target type as tile predictor variable, the point-biserial correlation (r,,) between ganzfeld perflormance and target type is .663, 1 (17) 1@v communication In the Gan@11,hl 117 TABLE 'I SENDEK/Rirx-.@.iv ER PAIRING Sender ;t%: Lab Lab friend Friend N trials 1,10 66 1-15 N hils 46 24 52 f/v Hits 33 36 36 Effect size .18 .24 .24 (h) 2.01 1.93 2.83 Z .023 .026 .0023 P 3.65, p .002.'; The 95% C1 for dynamic targets is a hit rate from 34% to 47%. The C1 1`017 Static targets is from 21% to 34%. Thus, out- hypothesis concerning the superiority of dynamic targets is strongly supported. SenderlRecelver Palring Receivers are niore successf'ul with friends than with laboratory -s, although the difference is not statistically significant. The sendei nundwr of" sessions Ili this analysis is 351 because four subjects opted to have no sender. The best performance occurs with friend senders. Sessions with laboratory senders, although significant, have the lowest success rate. (See Table 4.) Using series effect sizes as the unit of analysis and sender type its the predictor variable (combining lab friend and friends), rp is 7 -1-he .363, 1 (17) = 1.6 1, P = .0635 . friends is ;I hit ra(e from 33.3% to 47%. For lab senders, the Cl is f'rorn 18.3% to 41.8%. Thus, although the effect of sender type is not statistically significant, there is a trend toward better resufts with friends. Separate effect sizes were obtained for the dynamic and static target sessions of each series. Since Series 302 used dynamic targets only, the analysis is based on I 1 dyllaillic target CITCCI sizesand 8 Static tin-get eff'ect sizes: Iwo static target series (105 and 201) had extremely small sample sizes (2 and 3 sessions, respectively). A similar procedure is used in tile analyses of sender/receiver pairing and expericnccd versus novice subjects. '"I'lli-vt- scries involving labontior). st-ilders were Cliellinaled fruln this analysis I)C- ciluse (& extremely slll@lll s.,111ple sizes. 'I'licse include Series 2 (n = 2). Series 105 (n = 2). and Series 201 (n = 1). Thus, tile point biserial correlation is based on I I series with friends and 8 series with laboratory sender%. < ;13 0 < CD CL -n 0 CD F A) W CD M CD CD (:) CD 00 CD 00 0 > 0 6 CD 4 00 to Q CD CD C) 731 -N Pvt Coynnninictition fit the Gan@feld 119 Gantfeld Exl)erience TWO 111111dred and Ciffille'.11 I.-I at ....... ence as ganzfeld receivers in the autoganzfeld series. (This includes I lie J@.Novice Series 10 1 - 105 and 12 novices in Series 1.) For all bm 24 191%), their initial autoganzf*eld session provided their first ex- perigice as participant in any parapsychological research. Of' Ihe 21 U11.4ovices, 7 1 (32.5%, h 1 71) correctly identified their target (ex- act %noinial p = .0073, z 2.44). Ilhrticipants with some ganJeld experience contributed 137 trialPand 51 hits (37%, h = .26, p = .001, z = 3.09). When series effeStsizes are used as tile unit of analysis and prior ganzfeld ex- periMice is used as the predictor variable, rp is .078, 1 (10) = 0.25, P =( ak 1. The 95% C1 foi- novices is it hit rate from 25.5% to 49.5%. 'I ie (D;I for experienced participants is I'roni 29% to 50%. M Part5'C@p'atzon by PRL LaboratoTy Staff CD 19 completeness, we report the contribution of laboratory staff as sl@aects in this database. PRL staff members contributed 12 ses- slon.fchs R. These sessions yield 3 lilts (exact binomial p = .50; It .oo).- 0 > lVhzM-Aloise and Ganzfeld Illuitunation Levels ;U, 0 I@Re mean while noise level (in arbilrary units ol'0-7.5) is 2.97 (SD cp 1.77). As measured f'rom the headphones, the mean no-se ievel6s approximately 68 dB. The mean light intensity (arl)itri:ry CD unit&%Vf 0-100) is 73.8 (SD = 26.1). Pref'erred noise and light ill- tensi% levels are highly correlated: r = .569, t (353) = 12.99. P,Mther noise nor light intensity is significantly related to ganz- Feld &-rformance. The point-biserial correlation between hits and .nois@fevel is -.026,1 (353) = - 0.18, p = .63 1, Iwo tailed. For light 111terality, rp is -.040, t (353) = -0.76, p = .449, two tailed. CD Q C) C) RANDOMNESS TESTS The adequacy of' randoillizalion was a 111aJor source oF disagree- ment in two meta-analytic reviews of' earlier psi ganJeld research (Flonorton, 1985; Flyinan, 1985). In this section we document tile adequacy of' om- raii(lominfion procedtire according lo guidelines agreed oil by Hyrnan and I-Ionorlon (1986). Global Tests of Random Number Generator Full-range firequency analysis. As described earlier, autoganzfeld IM-gels ;,I,(. %ele(,Icd Illrotigh ;l prograin call to tile IZNG for values within tile target range (I - i6o). The number of' experimental ses- sions (N = 355) is too small to assess the RNG output distribution for tile ftill range, so we performed a large-scale control series to test the distribution of values. Twelve control samples were col- lecied. These included five samples wi th 156,000 trials, six samples with 1,5(io trials, and one sample of' 1,560,000 trials. The 12 result- ing -chi-square values were compared to a chi-square distribution with 155 df, using the Kolrnogorov-Smirnov (KS) one-sample test. The KS test yields a two-tailed p = .577, indicating that the RNG used in these experiments provides a uniform distribution of values throughout the f'uII target range." Test of frequency distribution for Set 20. We used a single target set (Set 20) in Series 302. We repeated the frequency analysis in a 40,000-trial control sample, restricting target selection to the four iarget values within Set 20 (Targets 77-80). A chi-square test of the (list ributlon ()I' targets within Set 20 shows that [lie RNG produces I ( it und-win distribution of'the target values within the set: X2 = 3.19, 3 df, p = .363. Tests 11'the E'XIlerimental RNG Usage Each autoganzfeld session required two RNG calls. An RNG call at the beg' nuing of' tile session determined tile target; another, made before the judging procedure, determined the order in which the target and decoys were presented forjudging. Disiribution of targets in the experiment. A chi-square test of the dis Iribillioll of* vallies within tile IargCI sets shows [flat tile targets Were selected uniformly front among the four possibilities within each set; 2 X with 3 df is 0.86, p = .835. Distribution ofJudging order. A chi-square test of the judging order indicates that the targets were unif'ornily distributed among the Four possible judging sequences: the X' with 3 df is 1.85, p = .604. "Ond- ol'thd pirview pack clenicnis for Set 6, comaining Targets 21-2-1. was damaged. This required filtering the RNG calls in the experiment and control tests to bypass the dairnaged portion of the videotape, leaving the targets in Pool 6 unused. Thus, for the full-range analyses reported here. there are 155 df rather than 159. 120 Thi-Jimitted (y Pajal).%yiholagy Summaq N@e randonmess tests demonstrate that the RNG used for larget sele0ion in these experiments provides an adequaie source of' ran _0 dony-T,nunibers and was l'unctioning properly during the experi- me4- (D CL -n 0 EXAMPLES OF TARGET-MENTATION CORRESPONDENCES this section, we present some (.x;kllll)lcs of' correspondences betviFen targets and ganzfeld mentation. Although conclusions can- 110t Ne drawn front (Itialimfive daia, this maierial should not he ig- nor6l. It constitutes the raw data on which the objective statistical evid9ce is based, and may provide important insights concerning the aderlying process. These examples are excerpts from sessions of SFEWcts' garazfeld mentation reports, identified by them during the "nd judging procedure its providing their basis for rating tile targ?, TarjOt 90, Static: Dall's "Christ Crucilied. Serlt>]. Participant /1): 77. Rank = 1. z score = 1.67. I think of* guides, like spirit guides, leading me and I come into like a U)III-1 with ;a king. It's quiet.... It's like heaven.The Wag is somethiog I* Jesus. Woman. Now I'm ust sort of' surnmersaulting through 119ven.... Brooding.... Aztecs, the Stan God .... High priest .... Graves. Woman. Prayer.... Funeral .... Dark. Death .... .S;Ails .... Ten Commandments. Moses...." (D TarkW 77, Dynamic: Tidal 71'eive engpilling anriew city. hwm (31,1ch (I-1h8litans, " a film based on Greek ne@'ylha' logy. A huge lidal weive crashes into 2P shore. The scene shifts to a center courtyard of (in ancient Greek city; gre is a statue in the center, and buildings with Greek columns around the prk .phery. People are running to escape consumption hy the iidal wave. Wate"Cgushes through the buildings, destroying the columns and the statue; peop8scurry through a 51one tunnel, just ahead of the enguying water; debriiffioats through the water. Serie-P, 1. Participant ID: 87. Rank = 1. z score = 1.42. "...The city of Badi comes to mind. The Romaus. The reconsiruciion of the baths through archaeology. 'rite Parthenon. Also getting sort of' buildings like Stoncheuge bta sort of a cross I)Clwecll slolichelige all(I the Parthenon. The Byzantiuc Empire. The Gates of' Thunder. The 11si Communication in the- Ganz/eld 121 Holy See. Tables floating about.... The number 7 very clearly. That Just popped out of* nowhere. It reminds inc a bit of' one o(* the first Clash --i albunis, however. 'rite Clash, "Two Sevetu" I think it was called, Fan iiot > sure...." [The target was number 77.1 0 Series 302. Participant ID: 267. Rank = 1. z score = 2.00. < I (D "... A big storm over New York City. I'm assuming it's New York City. CL -n No, it@s San Francisco.... A big storm and danger. It looks so beautiful 0 but I'm getting the sense of danger from it.... It's a storm. An earth- quake ...... (D Target 63, Dynamic: Horses. From the film, "The Lathe of Heaven." An overhead view offive horses galloping in a snow storm. 'The camera zooms in on the horses as they gallop through the snow. The scene shifts to a close- up of a single horse trotting in a grassy meadow, first at normal speed, then in slow-motion. The scene shifts again; the same horse trotting slowly through empty city streets. Series: 101. Participant ID: 92. Rank = 1. z score = 1.25. "... I keel) going to the mountains.... It's snowing.... Moving again, 0 this little 11) tile lell, spilliling to [lie lefi.....Spinuing. Like ona carousel, " horm.s. Ilorsvs f I I I aca r( I I I so I. a ci r( -I Is.... Target 46, Dynamic: Collapsing Bridge. Newsreel0 footage of the collapse Of _ U I and down. a biidge the 1940s. 'Fite bridge is swaying back andforth and up Light posts are swaying. The bridge collapses from the center into the water. Series: 101. Participant ID: 135. Rank = 1. Q z score = 1.94. Q 4 "...Something, some vertical object bending 00 or swaying, almost some- to thing swaying in the wind.... Some thin, verticalX ol@iect, bending to the lefi....Sonte kind of' hadder-like structure but it seems to be almost Q blowing in the wind. Almost like a ladder-like bridge over some kind of chasm that's waving in the wind. This is.not Q vertical this is horizon- tal.... A bridge, a drawbridge over something. It's like one of those old Euglish type bridges that opens up from either side. The middle part comes up. I see it opening. It's opening. ThereQ was a flash of an old Q English stone bridge but then back to this Q one that's opening. The bridge is lifting, both sides now. Now both 7% sides are straight up. Now it's closing again. It's closing, it's coming down, it's closed. Arc, images of arcs, arcs, bridges. Passageways, many arcs. Bridges with many al,cs.... Target 13 7, Static: "Working on a Watermelon Farm. " This painting shows a black man with his back to the picture; his suspenders form a V-shape IZZ i ne j ournat oj rarapsycnotogy around his should m_ A dog Is In front of'the matt; there are waternielonv between the dog and the mail. The nuin Ja'ces a dirt path with watermelon I)atches on either side. On the left side, another man pushes a Wheelba rrow filled rolth huge watermelons. Serii> 101. Participant ID: 105. Rank = 2. z score = 0.98. a it Small Very Sol1, Outside. Small, playl'til.... I see it N' stlitpe.... An apple.... I see a kitchen towel with a picture oil it. Apple s*ds or a fruit cut in half showing the seeds. A tornato or ail apple. '11e fruit was red oil the outside.... I thought of watermelon as in a vmermelon basket. Thinking of kids playing on a beach. Little kids .Mying with balls that are bigger than they are and buckets that are t!tee-quarters their size.... I had a thought of going through a tuntiel, rot tile kind of tunnel you see oil Earth but the type of tunnel described Zen someone dies." A) TarJ& 64, Dynainic: 1920s Car Sinking. I-rom thefilm "Ghost Shny." The scen"epicts the murder of a young blonde woman by three young men ill the 820s. The men are all wearing suits; one of the men is wearing (A fedoQ hat that is turned up in the back. The men push an old car into a lake.9he camera shifts between close-ups of theirfacial expressions, and the car, a it slowlysinks into the water. The womans face and hand appear III 00 the cqr's large rectangular rear window; she silently scream out for help. The or disappears beneath the water as the sequence ends. Seili> 102. Participant ID: 154. Rank = 1. z score = 1.45. ;irl widi a liaircoi.... Blood hair. ...A car....The back (W soine- 4.,( head.... Someone running to tile right.... Someone oil file right iqjD a brown suit ... and it f'edora hat turned up very much ill the Wk.... Fedora, trench coat, dark tie.... A tire of a car. The car's going t8the left. Ali old movie.... I'm picturing an Edward G. Robinson rnovie.... Big roundish car like 1940's. Those scenes from tile back will- (%W. Bumping once in a while up and down looking through tile back v7Mdow you could see that it was probably a big screen in back of the and tile car's standing still acitially.... I think it's a movie I saw. ty're being shot at and shooting at tile window and then the girl gets Sit.... Girl with the blonde haircut.... Someone walking ill a suit, lc@,wn suit.... It's the 1940's again, 30's maybe. Except il. looks like iCS .S1 ipocolor. Something red, blood ... blood on someone's lap.... A dead 18rson all of a sudden.... A big mouth opened. Yelling, but no colind .... Two people running near a train.... Dressed in 1920 type spits with balloony pants, like knickers.... A big, old-l'ashioned white (:;it- *ill a flat top. 1920's, 30's ...... Target 107, Static: Stained-Glass Madonna with Child. This is a %Iained- glass window depicting the Virgin Mary and Christ child. Psi Communication in the Gan@feld 123 102. PariffiPant 11): 183. R(I)Ik = 2. zscore = 0.()l "Some kind of' a house. structure.... Some kind of* wall or buildilig. Something with (lie sky ill [lie background. Thinking of'a bell. A bell structure. Something with a hole with the light coming through the hole.... Like a stained glass window like you see in churches." Target 19, Static: 1,7y'ng E le. An eagle u,'h outstretched wings is about 1 .119 to land on a perch; its cl(171)s are extended. The eqgles head is white and its 0 wings and body are black. < (D Series: 104. Participant ID: 316. Rank = 1. z score = 2.00. C1 A black bird. I see it dark shape of'a black bird with a very pointed beak with his wings down .... Almost needle-like beak.... Something that would fly or is flying ... like a big parrot with long feathers on a perch. Lots of f'eathers, tail feathers, long, long, long .... Flying, a big huge, huge eagle. The wings of ail eagle spread out .... The head of an cagle. White head and dark 1eathers....The bottom oi'a bird.... Target 144, Dynamic: Hell. Front thefilm "Altered Stairs." This sequence depicts a psychedelic experience. Eveirything is tinted red. The rapidly shifting scenes include: A man screaming, many people in the midst of fire and smoke; a man screaming in an isolation tank; people in agony; a large sun with a corona around it; a mass crucifixion; people Jumping off a precipice, in tile midst offire, smoke, andmolten lava; spiraling crucifixes. There is a close-up of a lizard's head, slowly opening its mouth, at the end of the se- quence. Series: 104. Participant 11): 321. Rank = 1. z score = 1.49. ... I just see a big X. A big 'X'.... I see a tunnel in front of me. it's like a tunnel of smog or a tunnel of smoke. I'm going down it.... rm going down it at a pretty fast speed.... I still see the color red, red, red, red. red, red. red, red.... Ali. suddenly the still.... Tile kind of cartoon still you see when you call see each pointy spikearound tile sphere.... I stepped on a piece of glass and there's a bit of blood coming 0'ut of my 1'()o(.... A lizard, with it big. big, big head ...... Target 148, Static. Three Unusual Planes. Three small aircra fif flying in Io-rination. The planes are white and have swept-back wings; their landing- gear is extended. A winding road is visible below. Series: 104. Participant ID: 322. Rank = 2. z score = 0.39. Ajet plane .... A 747 on the way to Greece. Blue skies. Sounds like WS going highel ..... I think I'm back on the plane again. I tiever used to be afi-aO of' flying until recently....'I'licy need bet(er insulated jets, sotiodprool' like diese roonis. They could use these colillortable seats, too. And tile leg room. 'File service isn't bad either.... Still can't get the -n 0 ;U (D (D fu (n (D 0a 0 00 0 5 I 6 0 4 0 0 -a 121 Thr.1mitned (!/ Ptim#@ythoh)gy feeling of being in ;in airplane out of' my mind. Flying over Greenland and Icelaod when I went to England.... Ivels like we're gol g higher >and higher.... Descending. It seems we're descending.... Big airplanes -0 flying over with people like me siaring down.... Flying around ill a -0 piece of tin.... Feel like I'm getting a G-I'Orce. Maybe I ain taking off. 0 Sure feels like it. Feels like we're going straight ill).... I always 1"evi like when I'm oil tile plane going home, [Jost hope lbai plaiie makes it pasl (D CLthe Rocky Mountains ...... -n 70igel 10, Static: Santa and Coke. This is a Coca-Cola Chruilmas adfi)'Ont t% I 950s, showing Santa Claus holding a Coke bottle in his left hand; three bolons are visible on Santa's suit. Behind Santa and to his left, is a large bffle rap with the Coca-Cola 1(@go leatting against an otwantented Chrtxhna@ 144'. (D - Sgjes: 104. Participant ID: 332. I?tj)tk = 1. z score = 1. 14. Q Q11 There's a man with a dark beard and lie's got a sharl) face.... CD CDThere's another man with a beard. Now there's green and white and 00he's in bushes and lie's sort of colonial. He looks like Robin I food and Qhe's wearing a hat.... I can see him from behind. I can see his liat and Whe has a sack over his shoulder.... Window ledge is looking down and here's a billboard that says 'Coca-Cola' oil it.... There's it snownian @--again and it's got a carrot for a nose and three black buttons coming 1( r >Iown the font.... There's a whi(e beard again. There's a mail Ivith it ;Rvhite beard.... 'rhere's an old nian with a beard ...... T40get 70, Dynamic: Dancing tit NY City Streets. From the film "The Wiz. IR?span (f yellow-Immed bridge over a bodv (I water and anionjobile 17-affic isgisible lit the opening scene; the New York City skyline i in the back gT;4lind. A hot-air balloon flies overhead. The scene shifi@ (,LV DoroIhv (Diana RM), her dog Toto, the Lion, Tin Man, and Scarecrow dance along the M B-ing is in the background. At the end of the sequence, the characters e in front of a painted backdrop of an old-fashioned building. Q Ssoes: 105. Participant ID: 336. Ralik = 1. Z score = 1.40. _L ".Big colorful hot air balloons.... White brick wall.... Ocean.... People CD C:Ivalking before my eyes. Several people.... A dog. Hot air balloon .... a Sa nightclub singer.... Back of' a woman's head, short curly hair .... .4water.... Balloon. big I)IIII0011.... Yellow.... Very 1;111 boildilig. IA)ok ing down at a city. Leaving a city, going up .... Faces. An arc.... Water.... A woman's face.... Cars. fret-way .... A rock-n-roll siar chanting.... Architecture. Ajester's hat.... geometrical figures, designs. ... Yellow chocolate bar. Water. Going down into water, (feel) down.... Man with long golden hair and sun glasses.... The Bay, San Francisco P%i Communit-allon In the Gan@11-hl 125 Bay. A lion.... Highways .... Lion, see a lion .... Tornado.... Bal- loon.... Face inask.... City .... Leaning Tower Of' Pisa .... Long hall- way,doorway.... Long road. Long, long desert road ...... Target 22, Dynamic: Spiders. From the documentary "Life on Earth." A SIMIff iS Weaving it.@ upeb. The spiders long legs spilng up and d071111 re- peatedly, weaving strands ol'the web. The body of thespider 11V constantly in ?notion, and bounces up and down. A close-up shows one (f the veins of the iveb being.stretched out by the spider. Various vieU15 of'the web. Series: 301. Partic' ant ID: 146. Rank = 2. z score = 0.65. ip Now visual patterns more like a spider web and the color. And then like (lie form of the veins (if a windmill.... Something like a spider web again. A spider web. A pattern that instead ofa spider wel) it looks like basket weaving.... Ali iniage ofille iva). solile children were able to do something like flying when I was a child though I never had one. It was a-forgotten what it was called-a pogo stick or ajunip stick, something in which you jumped up and down and you could hop quite a distance by doing so.... I have kinesthetic images all over as in vigorous motion expressed in flying or jumping on this sort of- spring stick that I men- tioned.... Vigorous motion. It's as though I were trying to combine re- laxation with participating in an image of something very vigorou s.... 1 really feel carried away by these images of vigorous activity without Wng able to localize this activity as to what it is ...... Target 108, Static: Two fire eaters. A young fire eater, in the foreground, facing to the right of the picture, blows a huge flame out of his mouth. In the background there @v anotherfitre eater. A Arroup of people are watching on the /9-1i side oj* the picture. Series: 301. Participant ID: 146. Rank = 1. z score = 1.71. "...I keep having images of flames now and then...'. The sound re- minds me of flames too.... I find flames again .... In these new images the I'l re takes on a very menacing meaning .... Rather moun(ainous' sticking tip of bare rocksjust as though they had come from a recently formed volcano. Volcanos of course get back to the fire, extreme heat. I had ;in image of a volcano with molten lava inside the crater. Molten lava running down the side of the volcano.... Cold. Written out there behind the visual field and thinking how it contrasts with my images of Hames. Although my images of flames didn't actually include much real feeling OfIleat. I didn't have any imagery ofheat in connection with tile flames. just abstract thought of flames.... Now I think of the water as a way of' putting ow flailles. Suddenly, I was biting ally lip. Biling lily lip as thougli lips had something to do with the imagery and I see lips out in front.of me.... And the lips I see are bright red, reminding me Of the flame imagery earlier. And then a bright heart such as Valentime's ;U > 0 (D 0 > 0 (D a) I CD CD 4 00 to CD C) Q Q Q 7% 126 Vie.journal of PartilAycholog-y candy in tile shape of' I heart. The cinnanion flavored candies that I relliellibel. as a child having al. Valenlille's. Red coloi ..... This red ;is ill tile cillilallion candv is a (feet) very intense red. And similarb, for tile flaines. Aod oow I sce dw Word 7'a t 94, Dynamic: Hang Gliders. Vie sequence shows a shler opt. a V- L9 %he, d h(mg glidri. The Nkit-i wan high itp tihonw,mmi, tjor)esl inmitilimn 0 a it(& pine J' rest. At the end, the skier lands on a mountain slope and skis amg. The sequence i@ accompanied by Pachelbel's Canon. SerIM: 301. Participant ID: 188. Rank = 1. z score = 1.26. -,n Some kind of' V shape, like . 0 -in open book.... I get some molln- Min.... Some kind ol'bird with it long wing ..... I-lie shape ol'an tipside F. wn 'V'....Ski, something about skiing came (o me.... Some kind of" E-hody like ;ill oval shape of ;t body with whigs on top id' it ill a W, aalie. Another 'V' like it wing shape.... Something with wiogs.... gain tile-shape of ;tit tunbrella canic into iny inind. A himerfly ape.... 7' CD 80 1) tantic: Bugs Bunity lit Space. In this cartoon, there 1V a close- zi@jithe 'Iozvyelr part of a cigar-shaped rocketship and the supports holding it I Pie rocket mu,inblV 4tilm over to the launching pail, threctly above Bit .,C Bunny's undeWound patch. The scene shifts to the underground /mIffl, as Bugs Bunny climbs up the ladder leading out of hi% patch. U11- knobng@y, he climbs zip through the interior of the rocketship. Vie rockel% AU/)$;r1v pull a7tyrry and then It lakes t?f I f 'nio space. Vie rocket.% nom, (one Apbtba.s- Bugs Bunny appears i1trough the top aiid he 3ees the Earth recede rapd(y in the distance. As the sequence ends, Bugs Bunny i's hit in the belly by Moynel. Serig: 302. Participant ID: 292. Rank = 1. z score = 1.48. (:)..Space crali ..... Hie solar system. The underside ol'a liclicopicr or a4submarine or some kind of fish that you're seeing 1ronl tolder- 00 ath C;klll 1. . 4W. - - - - Sort of* being underneath It. Sort of* being toidern i . A All, y sirange image like ;I cai-ioon character, aninimcd characier. With 19-1 motith open kind of'.... Like ;I hypodermic needle or a candle or Wis shal't like thing with tile a pointed top again.... missiles tying.... Ali aerial perspec(ive.... I'm just kind of'editing here I think. Pn really hoping all this rocketship kind of imagery isn't becaose ol'ilie pu)ise. I Ceel like I'm ill a rockciship or sollicilling.... That illiage ol, dic Sip going into the belly of'the mother ship ...... CD COMPARISON OF STUDY OUTCOMES WITH GANZI-TIA) MEVA-ANAISSIS I it this section, we compare the automated ganzf`eld study out- comes with the results of'earlier ganzf'eld studies, summarized in' "a 11siContintiniCtitiOn lit the Ganqllhl 127 TAIII.F. 5 COMPARISON 01: OVERALL PERFORMANCE IN Au,rohIATED GANZFELD AND MVTA-ANAIXSIS DATA SVIN Clutcoille N variable Dalahase slildiesMeanSO I df P Z scores Meta-analysis28 1.251.57 0 33 25 748 AmoganzleeldIll 1.110. . 11.1111 ElIeci Meta-analysis28 .28 .4 6 sizes (h) 0.14 28 .892 Autoganzf'eld 11 .29 .29 Note. The p values are two-tailed. Incla-alialysis (Ilonorioll, 1985). We compare [lie two databases oil [Our dimensions: (1) overall success rate, (2) dynamic versus static targets, (3) sender/receiver pairing. and (4) novice versus experi- enced sul)j jects. Overall Success Rate To assess the consistency of' results, we compare the I I' auto- ganzf'eld series to tile 28 studies in a nieta-analysis of earlier ganz- 1'eld studies (Honorton, 1985, Table Al, p. 84), using direct hits as (lie dependent variable. The otitconies ol'the two datit sets are coll- sistent. Both display a predominance of'positive outcomes: 23 of'tlie 28 studies Ili the meta-analysis (82%) and 10 of the I I autoganzfeld series (91 %) yield positive z scores. The mean autogatizfeld z scores and effect sizes are very similar to those in the meta-analysis. (Se4Q Table 5.) Coniblited EStintates of Ganzfeld Success Rate Because the z scores and effect sizes for the automated gartzfeld are consistent with the original set of'28 studies in tile meta-analysis, a better estimate of their true population values may be obtained by combining them. Positive outcomes were obutined ill 33 of tile 39 studies (85%); the 95% C1 is ftoin 69% to 99%. 'rable 6 shows a stem-and-leaf frequency plot of the z scores (Tukey, 1977). Unlike other methods of displaying frequency distributions, the stem-and- leaf plot retains the numerical data precisely. (Turned on its side, (lie sieni-and-leal' plot becomes I conventional histogram.) Each number includes it stem and one or more leaves. Foi- example, tile stem I is followed by leaves of 6,6,6,7,7,7, representing z scores of 1.6,1.6,1.6,1.7,1.7,1.7. In the display, the letter "H" identifies the' > 0 < CD CL 128 PieJournal of Parapsychology TABi.F. 6 DIS I RIM) I ION 0I- Z SCORES Mininitin) Z 1.97 1 97 - 1,(JWCI hinge 0.25 o. 85 Median z 0.92 0. 33 Mean z 1.28 0 1-1 222224 Uppel- hinge 2.08 0. 0, M 6667777999 Maximum z 4.02 X (D 666777 SD 1.44 1. 2. H Oil Skewness (g,) 0.05 2. 8 Kurtosis (g,) -0.37 W (D 01124 Combined (Stouffer)7.53 3. z 3. 9 4. 0 @per and lower hinges of the distribution, and "M" identifies its i&dian. The z's range front - 1.97 to 4.02 (mean z 1.21, SD R5), and the 95% CI is ;I z from .76 to 1.66. The combined z f or the 39 studies is 7.53 (p 9 x 10"). 9senthal's (1984) file-drawer statistic indicates that 778 additional dies with z scores averaging zero would be required to reduce the "nificance of the combined ganzfeld database to nonsignificance; tIMt is a ratio of 19 unknown studies for every known study. W M A stem-and-leaf display of the effect sizes is shown in Table 7. *&e cf-f' cci sizes raiige from --.93 to 1.44 (mcan h @ .28, SD @ .4 1). lie two most extreme values on both sides of' the distribution are (%thers. The 95% Cl is aii h betweeii .15 aud .11; the equivalew hit rXe is from 31.5% to 44.5%. Versus Static Targetv Q 2 The use of video sequences as targets is a novel feature of the jwoganzfeld database. I lowever, it comparable diftereiice in target tQ e exists in the earlier ganzfeld studies. Of the 28 direct hits stud- iff in the mew-analysis. 9 studies (by three independent investiga- t$[s) used View Master stereoscopic slide reels its targets (Honorton, 1985, Studies 7-8, 16-19, 21, 38-39). Static targets (single pictures or slides) were used in the remaining 19 Studies by seven independent investigators (Studies 1, 2, 4, 10-13, 23-31, 33- 34, 41-42). Like the autoganzfeld video sequences, View Mrwer tar- gets present ;I variety ofiniages rehil'Orcing it central target thenie. < Psi Communication in the Ganzfeld 129 TARI.F. 7 DISTRIBUTION OF EFFE(;I' SIZES (COIIEN's h) Stem A Leaf' .9 It 0 -.4 OUTSIDE VALUES Mininitini h -0.9 ' -.31 Lower hinge 0.1 -.10 Median h O_2 -.051 Mean h .2 .0 7779 Uppei- hinge 0.4 .1 H 002888 Maximum h 1.4 .2 M 133-1 SD 0.4 .3 11144777 Skewness (grj 0.2 .4 H 01113 Kurtosis (g2) 2.4. .5 7 .7 3 .8 17 OUTSIDE VALUES 1.33 1.44 To compare the relative impact of dynamic and static targets the autoganzf'eld and meta-analysis, we obtained point-biserial o 1111ations for each data set using target type (static or dynamic) the predictor variable and the series eff ct size, Cohen's h, as I outcome v, ariable. We lest the differencec between the two corre tions using Cohen's q (Cohen, 1977). Dynamic targets yield sign utlitly 1.11gul CIRULL b1fcS III umn Uata sets. ror tne meta-anmysis, is .409, 1 (26) = 2.28, p = .015; and For the autogatizfeld, a 's re4 porIcd above, rp is .663. The two correlations are not siknificantl@ different (q = .36; z = 1. 14). Therefore, we combine the-two clat2l sets to obtain it better estimate of the relationship between effect sizd and target type: rp = .439, t (45) = 3.28, p = .002. The 95% CIS', are 24% to 36% for static targets and 38% to 55% for dynamic tar@ gets. Thus, the cumulative evidence strongly indicates that dynanii(@ targets are more accurately retrieved than static targets. SenderlReceiver Pairing A similar analysis compares the effects of sender/receiver pairing in the two databases. Studies in the meta-analysis did not routinely provide detailed breakdowns regarding sender/receiver pairilig. Set I& I./recci ver pairing ill tile Illeta-analysis Call olily hc coded ac- cording to whether subjeas could bring friends to serve as their St. 1141 (.1 (it %V(. I r Ics I I it Ir, I to) la I mitaitio sciodres. !it !7 site dics, by six independent investigators, subjects were free to bring I'liends :61loijorion, 1985, Sitidies 1-2, 4, 7-8, 16, 23-28, 30, 33-31, 38- :09) .. Laboratory-assigned senders were used exclusively in the re- iaining, 8 studies, by four independent investigators (Studies 10 @2, 118-19, 21, 29, 41). (Three studies using clairvoyance proce- &res and no senders are excluded from this analysis.) For the au- Tnganzfeld studies, we calculated separate effect sizes for each series RY sender type (combining lab friend and friend for comparability %th tile nicta-analysis). In the nieta-analysis, r,, (23) is .403; larger 2fect sizes occurred in studies where fliends could serve as sender 2.11, p = .023). For the autoganzfeld, its reported above, r,, is $63, in the same direction. The two correlations are very similar (q .05; z = 0.14) and are combined to give a better estimate of tile lationship between sender/receiver pairing and ganzfeld study c o 21(conle: rv = .38, 1 (42) = 2Jifi, M055. The 95%. (As are 200/v a . 4" 3,1%, Ior ullac(Illaillied Scildel./reccivvi- pairs Ind 3-1. 1 Y,, 14) I9.2`7v i5r friends. Thus, the sender/recelver relationship does have a sig- 00 r5ficant impact on performance. 0 @ffect of Prior Ganzfeld Experience I-lie meta-analysis includes 14 studies, by nine indepen dent in- U . Wstigators, ill which novices are its(-(] exclusively (I-Ionorlon, 1985, udies 2, 4, 8, 10-12, 16- 18, 23-24, 31, 4 1-42). Experience([ or 9 &xed samples of' novice and experienced subjects are used in the 4 tWilaining 14 studies, by four differelit Investigators (Studies 1, 7, 21, 25-30, 33-34, 38-39). Sludies using experienced stil)jects idre more successful than those limited to novices; the point-biserial rarelation boween level of"experience and effect size is .229. 1 (26) 1.20, P = .12. For (lie autoganzfeld studies, as reported above, 00-is .078. The two correlations do not differ significantly (q = .155; w-- 0.40), and the combined rp is .194, t (38) = 1.22, p = .105. The &pective 95% Us are 24.5% to 44.5% for novices ;Ind 35.5% to 43% for experienced subjects. "I'lic 95% Cis for these comparative aiialyses are shown gl-;Il)lii- -P& cally in Figure 2. The bottom two rows are Cis for tile overall hit rates in the meta-analysis and autoganzfeld, respectively. The next .2 @Fl C: 0 MetwExper Atalu:Novicv llet.a:Novica - A4ilo:S1t=Fr - MeLn:SH=Fr Au1o:SR=Lab AutolU=Sta AuLo.TGT=Dya - Mda:TGT=Dyn - Attliagaitz. -1.0 -0.8 -0.0 -0.4 -0.2 U 02 0.4 0.6 011 1.0 Effect size M Figure 2. Comparison of autoganzfeld and ineta-analysis 95% confidence Iiiiiiis. Abbreviations are (Jeline(I its Iollo%vs: hIet;1 =i ineta-analysis studies, Auto = automated ganzfeld studies, Dyn = dynain c iargets, Sta = static largels, Lab = Ialxwatory senders, Fr = sender is friend or ac(Itiaintance of'receiver, Novice = no prior ganzfeld experience, Exper = pirior gitnz- 1,61 experience. two rows give the Cis for dynamic targets in (lie two data sets. and SO Ou. Dis(:ussION We now consider various rival hypotheses that might account for the experimental outcomes, and the degree to which the automated ganzfeld experiments, viewed in conjunction with the earliu psi 0 132 Thejouvwd o1'1'ej)tt#%y(-hoh)Ay ganzfeld studies, constitute evidence for psi communication. Finally, we consider directions for future research suggested by these find- >@11 S. val Hypotheses < (D CL Sensory Cues. Only Se knows tile Identity of the target until R thiishes the autoinatedjudging procedure. It' Se is not a PRL staff gember, a staff member not otherwise involved in the session su- Wrvises target selection. In either case, the target selector knows ffily which videocassette contains the target. The target selector Saves the monitoring room with the remaining three target tapes ter knocking three times on the monitoring room door, signalling 1* fl,@to return..Since the target selector only knows the videocassette Mimber, variations in knocking cannot communicate any useful in- Pnrmation to E. The cardboard cover over the VCR eliminates any asual cues to E regarding the position of the videotape or the activ- of' the VU nieters (which are active when tile targe( is dynamic Ovid has a sotuidti-ack). Sensory transmission fi-om Se to R dUl-ing the ganzfeld session Is Qminated by having R and Se in separate, sound-attenuated rooms. Tf either participant leaves their room before R's ratings have been &istered in the computer, the session is unconditionally aborted. U The videotape target display systein prevents potential handling Ws during the 'udging procedure. Computer registration of' R's J 6rget ratings and atilonialed Feedback after tile session prevents tile 2)ssibility of cheating by Se during feedback, raised by Hyman (05985). 0 71 After about 80% of the sessions were completed, it was becoming %-P 4pts over static targets was receiving substantial confirmation. Be- ause dynamic targets contain auditory as well as visual information, atidi- QC collducled a slipplelliclilary test to assess file possibility of' . L wry leakage from tile VCR soundtrack to R. With the VCR audio St to normal amplification, no auditory signal could be detected 5rough R's headphones, with or without white noise. When an ex- Urnal amplifier was added between the VCR and R's headphones and with the white noise turned completely off, the soundtrack could sometimes be faintly detected. It is unlikely that subjects could have detected any target audio signal with the normal VCR ampli- fication and white noise; as we have reported, there is no correlation between ganzfeld success rate and white noise level in these exper- 1@%i Cwtimutilt-athm hi the Gatt4-1-1(1 iments. Nevertheless, to totally exclude any possibility of subliminal cueing, we modified the equipment. Additional testing confirmed that this niodillcation cl'fectivcly clitninated all leakage. This was formally confirmed by an audio spectrum analysis, covering the fre- quency domain between 475 Hz and 1-5.2 kHz. The critical question, of' course, is whether performance on dynamic targets diminished after lills lliodif icat loll. The answer is no; ill Lacl, pe r fOrlila lice ini- proved. Before the modification, the direct hit rate on dynamic tar- gets was 38% (150 trials, 57 hits, h = .28, exact binomial p = .00029, z = 3.44); the 95% CI was from 31% to 45%. Following the ' modification, the direct hit rate was 50% (40 trials, 20 hits, h 52 exact binomial p = .00057, z = 3.25) with a 95% Cl from 37% to 63%. The direct hit rate for all targets-static and dynamic-after the modification was 44% (64 trials, 28 hits, h = .39, exact binomial 0 = .00082, z = 3.15). Randomization. As Hyman and Honorton (1986, p. 357) have pointed Out, "Because ganzfeld experiments involve only one target selection per session . . . , tile ganzfeld investigator can restrict his or her aiiention to a frequency analysis allowing assessment of- tile cle- gree to which targets occur with equal probability." We have docu- mented both the general adequacy of the RNG used for target se leCLion and its. proper functioning during the experiment. Data select'on. Except for two pilot studies, tile number of partic- 1 ipants and trials were specified in advance for each series. The pilot Dr formal status of each series was similarly specified in advance and 1,CCORled oil disk before beginning the series. We have reported all trials, including pilot and ongoing series, using the automated ganz-. feld system. Thus, there is no "file-drawer" problem in this data- base. I Psi ganzfeld success rate is similar for pilot and formal sessi The proportion of hits for the 66 pilot sessions is .32 (h = .16, p .129, z = 1. 13). For the 289 formal sessions, the proportion correct is .35 (h = .22, p = .000 1, z = 3.7 1). The dil'ference is not signifi- Cult: X2 = 0. 11, 1 df, p = .734. If we assume that the remaining trials in the three unfinished series would yield only chance results, these series would still be sta- tistically significant (exact binomial p = .009, z = 2.36). This would reduce the overall z for all I I series from 3.89 to 3.6 1. Thus, inclu- sion of the three incomplete studies does not pose an optional stop- ping problem'. ' Multiple ana .lysis. Informal examination of recent issues of several American Psychological Association journals suggests that correction < ;U > 0 < (D CL -n 0 X (D F A) W (D NO Q Q Q Q 00 Q 00 0 > 0 -0 6 Q 4 00 C) Q Q Q for multiple comparisons is not .1 collinioll practice in Illore convell- lional areas of' psychological iiiquiry. Neverilicless, lialf, of I lylliall's (1985) 50-page crili(Itic of' carlier psi ganzfeld research IoCilsed oil J.13LIC.1 to nlul I ..... . .... hiple testilig. ill tile present case, advance Spec- Ificafioll of, tile prilllar@ hypollicsis and Illelliod of,ali'llysis prevents >)b1cills illvolvilig 1111111,14c all.-Ilysis oI 111111liple illdif vs Ill olo Irsl Ithe overall psi ganzFei'd elTecl. Out- direct hits analysis is actually ha significant 111.111 either the stim of' ranks method (z = 4.0,1, p = 2;g x 10 ') oi- Stallf'Ord's z scores (I = 4.53, 1154 (y, P = 4.1 X -nIn ;lddilioll 1() 1,(. hypothesis. however, we also lesled 0 11971) sccolldar@ hypollieses concernilig the impact ol, largel lvpv and Ide'll-eceivel- 1 .)affilig oil psi perlornimicc, and We ILIVC Pl-CSelILed sWeral purely exp loratory analyses its well. Oor Results section ill- Owdcs IF) sigilificallit. it-sis invii1vilig psi In-1-11JI111 111(c .1% illc dupco- d(1) it variable, and tile P values cited are not ad' 4% justed I'll- multiple ('6411parisons. 01' the 15 sigitificalice tests, 9 ilre assOcklied With P < ,4= Jkb, The Bonferroni multiple comparisons procedt:re provides a (-Qs(.I-V;llivc incillod of, adjt1slilig tile alpha 1CVCI whell several si- 1181taneous tests of'signific-ance are performed (Holland & Copell- lic-D-er, 1988; Flyinail & lJollol-toll, 1986; Rosenthal & Rtibln, 1984). Iffell tile Bolll,cri-olli ad-pistilleill is applied, six of tile 11 lie indiv 'd- uAy significant outcomes remain significant; these are: tile overall 11 ;1-;1( e, tile sul)'eci-based analysis using Siant'Ord z scores, tile dif'- f'a@%6nce between dynamic and static targets, the dynamic target hit riay, and the hit rate f'Or experienced subjects. UAIthough tile relationship beiween psi peri'Ormance alld selider tto is not independently significant in the autoganzleld, the cor- Xtion coefficient of .363 is close to that observed in the meta- a(,;)Iysis (r = .403), and tile combined result is Significant. The Cu- W4 1 n0alive evidence, llierel'Ore, does stippor( the conclusion that tile s(mler/reCeiver relaliollship is a sigilificaill Illoderalor ol, galizi"Cid p.gperformance. ecinity. Given tile large number of* sub ecis and tile sigilificallce ,i o0lie outcome using stll)iects as tile unit ot'analysis, subject decep- ll"R is not a plausible explailalioll. Th( 10. -aillonlated g;lilzl,(.*I(l prolocol h!g been examined by several dozen parapsychologists and behav- All researchers frorn other fields, including well-known critics of "a pa@apsychology. Many have participated its subjects, senders, or ob- se-Plivers. All have expressed satistaction with out- handling of'security issues and controls. In addition, two experts oil tile sillitil;1lion oI' psi ;lbility have ex- aillined [lie ailloganzi'Cid sysleill and prolocol. Ford Kross has bt-en 1@5i Comm itincalion lit the Ganzjeild 135 a 1),rol,emsional menialisi Ior over 20 years. I Ic is tile atilhor ol'illally arl icles ill menlalist periodicals ;uld has served as Secretaryfl'reas- I lo-er ol,!Il(. 11svchit. Ewer!.-liners Associmion. Mr. Kross has provided .1 its with the following statement: "In my prof' essional capacity as a illvillalisi. I have reviewed Psi-choplIN'sical Research Laboratories' ;tied ganzl' ld sys(cin and I )und it to provide excellent secti rity against deception by subjects" (personal communication, May, 1989). We have received Silikilal- COM111CIIIS F-1-011i Dilryll Bell), Pro- .' 1 lessor of Ps@chology'at Cornell University. Prof'essor Beni is well known (or his research in social and personality psychology. He is also a member of* tile Psychic Elltertainers Association and has per- 10111led 1,01" HUM). )-cars as a Illeolalisi. I Iv visilt'd PRI. fill. sever.11 days and was a subject in Series 101. The issill. of- illvesligalor illiegrily rall oilly be conchisively ad- dressed through independent replications. it is, however, worth drawing aiienfion to the 13 sessions in which ;I visiting scientist, Marilyn J. Schlitz, served as either experimenter (N = 7, 29% hits, h .08) or sender (N = 6. 67% hits, h = .36). Altogether, these sessions yielded 6 direct hits (N = 13, 46.2% hits, h = .45). This )re than twice as large as that I' r the, datab eFfect size is IM 0 ase as a whole. Status of the Evidence'for Psi Coirimunication in the Ganzfeld The automated ganzfeld studies satisfy' the methodological guidelines recommended by Hyman and Honorton (1986). The re- suits are statistically significant. The effect size is homogeneous across 11 experimental series and eight different experimenters. Moreover, the autoganzfeld results are consistent with the outcomes of' the earlier, nonautomated ganzfeld studies; the combined z.of 7.53 would be expected to arise by chance less than one dine in 9 trillion. We have shown that, contrary to the assertions of certain critics (Drucknian & Swets, 1988, p. 175), the ganzFeld psi effect exhibits U consistent -,in(] lawf' I patterns of covariation found in other areas of* inquiry.- The autoillated galizi, eld studies display the saille Pat- terns of relationships between psi performance and target type, sender/receiver acquaintance, and prior testing experience found in earlier ganzfeld studies, and the magnitude of these relationships is consistent across the two data sets. The impact of target type and sender/receiver acquaintance is also consistent with patterns in spon- tancous case studies, linking ostensible psi experiences to emotion- ally significant events and persons. These findings cannot be ex- 0 :E > -0 0 < (D cL 136 TheJournal (!f Paral).@yrhnlogy plained by conventional theories of coincidence (Diaconis & Mosteller, 1989). > Hyman and Honorton (1986) have stated, ... the best way to resolve the (ganzield) controversy ... is to await the outcome of future ganzfeld experiments. These experiments, ideally, 0 < will be carried out in such a way its to circumvent the file-drawer prob- (D k-lil, problems of nitilliple allalysis, and ille variolls del'Culs ill ralldoill- CL ization, statistical application, and documentation pointed out by -n 0 Hyman. If a variety of parapsychologists and other investigators coll tillUe to obtain significant results mider these conditions, then [lie exis ;U (D tence of a genuine communications anomaly will have been denion- F strated. (pp. 353-354) fu 0 We have presented a series of experiments that satisfy these delines. Although no single investigator or laboratory can satisfy t requirement of independent replication, the automated ganzfeld s8clies are quite consistent with the earlier studies. On the basis of ta cumulative evidence, we conclude that the ganzfeld effect rep- Ments a genuine communications anomaly. This conclusion will caer be strengthened or weakened by additional independent rep- lications, but there is no longer any justification for the claim made esome critics that the existing evidence does not warrant serious *ention by the scientific community. ;U W71- 110mmendallons for Future Research to T Recent psi ganzfeld research has necessarily focused on nieth- Qblogical issues arising from the ganzfeld controversy. It is essen- tpj that future studies comply with the methodological standards ag@eed on by researchers and critics. Yet it is equally imperative that Zi Small to medium effect sizes characterize many research findings CD icDthe biomedical and social sciences (e.g., Cohen, 1977; Rosenthal, 1;&4). Rosenthal 0986) and Utts (1986) make a strong case for rabre careful consideration of the magnitude of effect in the design CD a& analysis of future ganzfeld studies. The automated ganzfeld s0dies show a success rate slightly in excess of 34%. Utts's (1986) iftwer analysis shows that for an effect of this size, the investigator has only about one chance in three of obtaining a statistically signif- icant result in a 50-trial experiment. Even with 100 trials-an unu- sually large sample size in ganzfeld research-the probability of a significant outcome is only about .5. Psi Communication in the Gan@feld 137 We urge ganzfeld investigators to use dynamic targets and to de- sign their studies to allow subjects to have the option to have friends or acquaintances as their senders. The similarity of the autoganzfeld and Ineta-alialysis data sets stroligly indicates that these factors are important moderators of psi ganzfeld performance. Ifour estimate of the impact of dynamic and static targets is accurate, a 50-session s(IrICS 11silig dynamic targets has approximately ;in 84% chance of yielding a Significant OULC0111e. A comparable series with static tar- gets has only about one chance in five of achieving significance. REFERENCES ALCOCK, J. E. (1986). Comments on the Hyman-Honorton ganzfeld contro- versy.journal of Parapsychology, 50, 345-348. AKERS,C. (1984). Methodological criticismsof para psychology. InS. Krippner (Ed.), Advances in parapsychological research, Vol. 4 (pp. 112-164). Jeffer- son, NC: McFarland. BERGER. R. E., & HONORTON, C. (1986). An automated psi ganzfeld testing system. In D. H. Weiner & D. 1. Radin (Eds.). Research in parap.Fvchology 1985 (pp. 85-88). Metuchen, NJ: Scarecrow Press. UACKMORE, S. (1980). The extent of selective reporting of ESP.ganzfeld studies. Europeanjournal of Parapsychology, 3, 213-219. BLACKMORE, S. (1987). A report of a visit to Carl Sargent's laboratory. journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 54, 186 - 198. BRAuD, W. G. (1978). Psi conducive conditions: Explorations and interpre- tations. I n B. Shapin & L. Coly (Eds.), Psi and states of awareness (pp. I - 34). New York: Parapsychology Foundation, Inc. BRAUD, W. G., Wooi), R., & BRAui), L. W. (1975). Free-response GESP per- formance during an experimental hypnagogic state induced by visual and acoustic ganzfeld techniques: A replication and extension. Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, 69, 105 - 113. BRIGGS, K. C., & MYERS, 1. B. (1957). Myers-Briggs Type Indicator Form F. Palo BROWNLEE, K. A. (1965@ StaitisticaCtheory and methodology in science'and engi- neering. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CH I LD. 1. L. (1986). Comments on the ganzfeld controversy. Journal of Para- p1cholop. 50, 337-3-1,1. COHEN, J. ( 1977). Swistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences (rev. ed.). New York: Academic Press. DJACONIS, P., & MOSTELLER, F. (1989). Methods for studying coincidences. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 84, 853-86 1. DRUCKMAN, D., & SwETs, J. (1988). Enhancing human performance: Issues. the- ories, and techniques. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. HARt.Ey, T.,'k MA'ri'HEWS, G. (1987). Cheating, psi, and the appliance of science: A', reply to Blackmore. Journal of the Society for Psychical Research, 54, 199-207. Journal of Parapsycholt@gy, Vol. 53, December 1989 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 "FUTURE TELLING": A META-ANALYSIS OF FORCED-CHOICE PRECOGNITION EXPERIMENTS, 1935-1987 BY CIIARLLS I IONORTON AND DIANE C. FERRARI ABSTRACT: We report a meta-analysis of forced-choice precognition experiments published in the English-language parapsychological literature between 1935 and 1987. These studies involve attempts by subjects to predict the identity of target stimuli selected randomly over intervals ranging from several hundred milli- seconds to one year following the subjects' responses. We retrieved 309 studies reported by 62 investigators. Nearly two million individual trials were contributed by more than 50,000 subjects. Study outcomes are assessed by overall level of sta- tistical significance and effect size. There is a small, but reliable overall effect (z = 11.41, p = 6.3 X 10-25). Thirty percent of the studies (by 40 investigators) are significant at the 5% significance level. Assessment of vulnerability to selective re- porting indicates that a ratio of 46 unreported studies averaging null results would be required for each reported study in order to reduce the overall result to nonsig- nificance. No systematic relationship was found between study outcomes and eight indices of research quality. Effect size has remained essentially constant over the survey period, whereas research quality has improved substantially. Four moder- ating variables appear to covary significantly with study outcome: Studies using subjects selected on the basis of prior testing performance show significantly larger effects than studies using unselected subjects. Subjects tested individually by an experimenter show significantly larger effects than those tested in groups. Studies in which subjects are given trial-by-trial or run-score feedback have significantly larger effects than those with delayed or no subject feedback. Studies with brief intervals between subjects' responses and target generation show significantly stronger effects than studies involving longer intervals. The combined impact of these moderating variables appears to be very strong. Independently significant outcomes are observed in seven of the eight studies using selected subjects, who were tested individually and received trial-by-trial feedback. CPYRGHT Precognition refers to the noninferential prediction of future events. Anecdotal claims of"future telling" have occurred through- out human history in virtually every culture and period. Today such This work was funded by SRI International and the John E. Fetzer Foundation. We wish to thank our PRL colleague George P. Hansen, who is primarily responsible for ret rieving t lie si udies used in i lie nieta-analysis. We are grateful to Edwin C. May, ]Cssica ulis, and to live allonylliolls mviewers at SRI for valtiable collilliclits oil all earlier draft ofthis report. Valuable comments were also made by Ephraim Schechter and by three anonymous referees. The division of authorship responsibility is as fol- lows: Honorton is responsible for the design of the nieta-analysis, defin'ition of study coding criteria, the actual analyses, and the report itself. Ferrari coded the individual research reports in consultation with I-lonorton and/or Hansen. Ap 120001-4 (I;Iillls are generally believed to he based on fiaclors Stich as dchislon, 11 l'i4xiality, and superstitious thinking. Thc concept of' precogni tiotl:gtllls 'counter to accepted notions of' causality and appears to Coll with current scientific theory. Nevertheless, over tile past hailtilt.1.11-Y a substantial number of experiments have been re (1), pol'I&I claiming empirical SUpI)OI-t for tile ilypOllICSIS Of' precOgIII_ Ilon4UbjecLs Ili f6rced-choice experiments, according to many re- poruQhave correctly predicted to a statistically SigillfiCallL degree tile iden (or order) of target stimuli randomly selected at a later 11ille(D @@'Mperfornied a meta-analysis of' forced-choice precognition ex- su PCVIIWI1I.S pUbliShed ill Llic English-laligUage research literature I)C twedA 1935 and 1987. Four Ina.iOr questions Were addressed throgh this inet-a-analysis: (1) Is there overall evidence for accurate arg(l2idenfificailon (above-chance hitting) Ili experimental precog :111.iO" Ludles? (2) What is the magnitude ofthe overall precognition FBS effeM. (3) Is the observed effect related to variations in rnethodo- logicaquality Lhill. Coldd allow a illore (:ollvcllll( )11.11 Cx plallal loll @ (A) Does. precognition pe rf'o rina rice vary systematically witfli potential 11)(A01 11ing v.1liables. smil as Ill SIJl)i(.-(I p(q)[11allows, S,111111PWIS conditions, experimental setting, knowledge of' results, and 111ne*fterval between SLIblect response and target generatlon@ 0 DELINEATING THE DoINIAIN Relrit'aihl of SludleS -4 00 Pooapsychological research is still academically taboo, and it is unlik7ly that there have been many dissertations and theses in this area Zgat have escaped publication. Our retrieval of'studies for this meta2halysis is therefore based on the published literature. The studio include all forced-choice precognition experiments appear CD ing i"Athe peer-reviewed English-language parapsychology journals: ourrN of Parapsychology, journal (and Proceedings) of the Society for Psyclighl Research, Journal of the American Society for Psychical Research, E'urol=n Journal (?f Parapsychology (including the Research Leller of' t the Lim-echt University Parapsychology Laboratory), and abstracts of' pcer- re viewed papers prcsented at Parapsychological Association I meetings published Ili Research in Parapsycholo@ry. Criieria for Inclusion 0111. review is restricted to fixed-fellgill silldles in Which siguill- cance levels and effect sizes based oil direct hitting call Ile calcu- A A leta Is 1 7 .1 -AYia1)W' if Forced-Cho'ce Preco-nition Expet'nirnis 28@ I.Iled. sitidies rising oulcoille variables o1her than direct hitting, sli* as 1,1111-scOre variance and displacement effects, are Include([ Only tile report provides relevant information on direct hits (i.e., numbR of trials, hits, and probability of a hit). Finally, we exclude studi conducted by two investigators, S. G. Soal and Walter J. Levy, whoxD work has been unreliable. CL Many published reports contain more than.one experiment RT experimental unit. Ili experiments involving multiple conditiorf-si significance levels and effect sizes are calculated for each conclitio? Outcome Measures Sig-nificance level. Significance levels (z scores) were calculated (D N8 each study from the reported number of trials, hits, and probabili III of' success using the normal approximation to the binomial dis t bution with continuity correction. Positive z scores indicate abov= chance scoring, and negative z scores reflect below-chance scoring@' . @000 Efle'ct s* e. Because itiost parapsychological experiments, parti(;-. 1Z ularly those in the older literature, have tised the trial rather tham dle SLII)Ject as the saull-Aing LlllI*L, we use a trial-based eSLIIIIatOr (5; effect. siIze. The effect size (ES) for each study is the z score dlvlcle@b by the square root of the number of' trials in the study.' General Characteristics of the Domain Q We located 309 studies Ili 113 separate publications. These stucQ ies were contributed by 62 different senior authors and were pulm a-) lished over a 53-year period, between -1935 and 1987. ConsiderinM the halt-century time-span over which the precognition experimenr@; were conducted, it is not surprising that the studies are very JiversP The database comprises nearly two million individual trials andD@ CD more than 50,000 subjects. Study sample sizes range -from- 25 tQL 297,060 trials (median = 1,194). The number of subjects rangC83 from I to 29,706 (median = 16). The studies use a variety of metI10 Q odologies, ranging from guessing ESP cards and other card symbolZL to automated random number generator experiments. The dornaij6 encompasses diverse stil)ject populations: the most frequently used Elsewhere (Honorton, 1985), we have used the effect size index Cohen's h (Cohen, 1977), and one referee has asked that we explain why we are now using zIN". The answer is that h 'and z1N` yield virtually iden'Eical results, and ;IN"2 is. computationally simpler. For the present sample of 309 precognition studies, the mean difference between the two indices is .00047, and the standard devi@ation of the difference is .026: 1(308) = 0.312, p = .756, two-tailed, The correlation between the i_,i ;. (17 281 TheJoutnal o] Pmaj).%ychfdogy TABLE 1 OVERALL SIGNIFICANCE LEVEL AND EFFECT SIZE > Z ES 3@ean 0.65 0.020 2.68 0.100 Ever 95% confidence estimate 0.40 0.011 -n Combined z 11.4 1, p 6.3 x 10 0 "Fail-safe N" = 14,268 t(ES) = 3.51, 308 df, p = .00025 M M-pulation is students (in approximately 40% of the studies); the 90 %ast frequently used populations are the experimenters themselves gd animals (each used in about 5% of the studies). Q Though a few Studies tested sub'ects till-01.1gh the mail, more typ- Q &lly subjects were tested in person, either Individually or in groups. Warget selection methods included no randomization at all (studies Cl-ing "quasi-randoi-n" naturalistic events), informal methods includ- ad -1 1 Jug manual card-shuffling oi dice-throwing, and f'ornial methods, elinarily random III.Iniber tables or random IlUniber generators. )Wie time interval between the subjects' responses and target gen- I ;Uation varied front less than one second to one year. 0 U to M OVERALL CUMULATION 6 Q Evidence for an overall effect is strong. As shown in the Lop part 9 Table 1, the overall resulls it .re highly significant.' Lower bound @ne-tailed) 95% confidence estimates of' the mean z score and ES ge displayed in the bottom portion of Table 1. W'Ninety-two studies (30%) show significant hitting at the 5% level, -L ed significant outcomes are contributed by 40 different investiga- M-s. The z scores correlate significantly with sample size: r(307) a, N)56, P = .003. The mean number of' trials for significant studies is 9% larger than the mean number of trials for nonsignificant Stud- 0@ !i-1%3- '1@6 'The statistical analyses presented here were performed tising SYSTAT (Wilk- inson, 1988). When t tests are reported on sainples with unequal variances, they are ' calcidalctl 11sing 111C %cpal;11V VoWiMitt-N Wilhill g14111I)S 101- 11W C11(11 Mid (ICgirch (if freedorn Following Brownlee (1965). Unless otherwise specified, p levels are one- tailed. Conibined z's are based on StOLIffer's rnethod (Rosenthal, 1984). -1 Alela-Analy.%' t?fForced-Choice Precognition Exin-rinients 285 0 0 @0 cb; 0 0 C) 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 :00 8: 0 0 : 0 0 1--- 0 01 0 -0.2 0.0 0. 1 0.2 Mean effect size 0 0 0 0.3 0.-1 0.5 Figure 1. Mean elTeci size 1)), investigator. N = 62 investigators. Rel5licalion Across Investigators Virtually the same picture emerges when the cumulation is by( nveSfigatot' rather than study its the unit ol'analysis; the combined' Z is 12.13, and 23 of' the 62 investigators (37%) have overall out-4 comes significant at the 5% level. The mean (investigator)effect size14 is 0.033 (SD = .093). . 4 There is a significant difference in the mean ES across investi-4 gators, but it is surprisingly small: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVAI by ranks, X'(6 1) = 82.7 1, p = .034. The effect is clearly not due to, 4 a few major contributors. If investigators contributing more thanI three studies are eliminated, leaving 33 investigators, the combined Z is Still 6..00 (P = 1.25 X 10-) and the mean ES is .028 (SD .091). Figure I shows the mean effect sizes by investigator. These results indicate substantial cross-iiiveSfigal.ol' replicability and directly contradict the claim of critics such as Akers (1987) that 0 :1 286 Die Jviirnal ofhiral).qrhologn, successful pa ra psychological olilcoMCS ;11,e aChieved by only a ft*%%, illVeStigat.017S. > -a. 7717&'dedrawer Problein 0 well-known reporting bias exists throughout the behavioral SCRO-Ces favoring publication of "Significant" studies (e.g., Sterling, The extreme view of this "filedrawer problem" is that "the Jourvals are filled with the 5% of the studies that show Type I er- ror0while tile filedrawers back at tile fill.) are filled with tile 95% of theSudies that show nonsignificance... " (Rosenthal, 1984, 1). 108). Re M nizing the importance of this problem, the Parapsychological AssliatiOn in 1975 adopted all official policy against selective re- por"g Of Positive TeSUILS.' ExarninatiOll of the parapsychological lit- eraige shows that nonsignificant results are frequently published, and2n tile precognition database, 70% of the studies have reported non&nificanl results. Nevertheless, 751/t, of(he precoglitli()II sill(lit's Werv-:5published before 1975, and we must ask to what extent selec- tive publication bias could account for the cumulative effects we ob- serl . C. ccrilral Section of"J'able I uses Roselillial's (1981) N" listic 10 eslitnale the number of' unreported StUdiCS With Z ScOrg averaging zero that would be necessary to reduce the known dataMse to nonsignificance. I I -lie filedrawer estimate indicates that Over& unreported studies 1 liust exist for each reported study to redu& the cumulative ulcome to a nonsignificant level. AC41ifferent approach to the filedrawer problem is described by DawS Landman, and Williams (1984; personal C01111111.11liCation f*r m5a)awes to Honorton, July 14, 1988). Their truncated-norl:nat cut-%, ana ysis, Rosenthal's "fail-safe N," is based on normal cUrvdAssulliptiolls. Their null hypothesis is that z scores above sonic criticigievel (e.g., z = 1.65, 1.96, etc.) are randomly sampled from N(O, I'T@'-,labove that critical level. The alternative to the null hypothesis is h because there is some real effect, the distribution of z's is wil shitl to the right of 0 and the z's I be larger than predicted by [fie ri!al. For a critical level of z = 1.65, the expected mean z is 2.06 and Jw variance is .14. In tile precognition database, there are 92 studies with z's > 1.65. Their average is 3.61, not 2.06 as predicted Aimlyses indicate no significant difference in tile magnitude of reported study MIC011)(Is "IM1. invan Es inr smilics prim- io 1975 i% 11.01-11 (sp .099), and lor studies I-Cl)(: @Icd thercititer (lie JI1C;AII is 0.017 (SD = .106): 1(307) 0.28, p = .782, two-tailed, A Alela-Aiialvs' of Forred-Cho'ce 11'recogiii1imi Experilnellis Is 1 287 by the 111111 hypothesis. Since lite variance of' tile normal truncated above 1.65 is .14, die test Z (Using the CenLral LimiL Theorem) com- paring 3.61 to 2.06 is 39.84 [1.55 divided by (.14/92) 1121. Hem P is virtually zero. Similar results are found with cut points of 1.96, 2.33, and 2.58. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that the cumulative significance of' tile precognition Studies cannot satisfactorily be ex- plained by selective reporting. OunAER REDUCTION Although the overall z scores and effect sizes cannot reasonably be attributed to chance, inspection of the standard deviations in Table I indicates that the study outcomes are extremely heteroge- neous. Given the diversity of methods, subject populations, and Other Study features that characLerize this research domain, this is not surprising. The study outcomes are in fact extremely heterogeni@ous. Al- though a major objective of this meta-analysis is to account for the VarlabiliLy across studies by blocking oil differences in study quality, procedural features, and sampling characteristics, the database clearly contains extreme outliers. The z scores range from - 5.1 to 19.6, a 25-sigma spread! The standardized index of kurtosiS (92) IS 9.47, suggesting that the tails of the distribution are much too long for a normal distribution. We eliminated the extreme outliers by performing a "10 perc '@7QX ent -._', -_ @1__ - 0- T In -FI-:- eliminating studies with z scores in the upper and lower 10% of the distribution, and results in all adjusted sample of' 248 studies. The trimmed z scores range from - 2.24 to 3.21 (g2 1). @The re- vised z scores and effect sizes are presented in Table 2. Elimination of extreme outliers reduces the combined z scores by t. approximately one half, but the outcomes remain highly significan Twenty-five percent of the studies (62/248) show mierall significant hitting at the 5% level. Lower bound confidence estimates show that the mean z's and effect sizes are above 0 at the 95% confidence level. Elimination of'outliers reduces tile total number of investigators from 62 to '57, but the results remain basically the same when the analyses are based Oil illvestigatol'S rather diall SLUdiCS. The Coin- bined z is 6.84; 18 of the 57 investigators (31.6%) have overall.sig- 0 _0 < X G) -01 CD 0 > 3a 0 C) CD -4 00 CD C) L M C) C) 288 The Jounial of Parap.@ychology TABLE 2 SIGNIFICANcE LEVEL AND EFFEC-11- SIZE FOR TRIMMED SAMPLE. IN. Z ES Nlcair-a 0.38 0.012 SD "1 1.45 0.065 0 Lower4*5% confidence estimate 0.23 0.005 (D CL Combined z 6.02, P 1. 1 X 10' -n 0 I(E.S) = 2.90, 247 dj', p = .002 ilficaM outcomes at the 5% level. The mean (investigator) ES is ).020%SD = .05). Fcw the trimmed sample, the difference in ES across investiga ors 1P not siv,,nificant: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by ranks, (56V5= 59.34, P = .355. If investigators contributing more than li reegudies are eliminated, leaving 37 investigators, the combined is sia 5.00 (p = 3.0 X 10-7 ) and the mean ES is 0.022 (SD 056).!RJ7igurc 2 Shows the inean effect size by Investigator. Tigs, elimination ofthe outliers does not s ubstantially affect the 'onclusions drawn from our analysis of the database as a whole. 1-her(Olearly is a nonchance effect. In the remainder of this report, ve usFPthe trimmed sample to examine covariations in effect size ind a@Mriety of methodological and other study features. 0 U to STUDY QUALI-1-Y CD Bemuse target stimuli in precognition experiments are selected mly 41r the subjects' responses have been registered, precognition tudie are usually not vulnerable to sensory leakage problems. )ther %otential threats to validity must, however, be considered. fie ;3blem of variations in research quality remains a source of ontroarsy in meta-analysis. Some meta-analysts advocate eliminat- iigilocDqLiality studies whereas others recommend empirically ac- essing1he impact of variations in quality on study outcome. Rosen- hal ( 84) points out that the practice of' discarding Studies is Int to assigning them weights of zero, and he recommends v@ight"ing study z scores in relation to ratings of research quality. -N Fludy Quality Criteria Ideally, the assessment of study quality should be performed by nowledgeable specialists who are Wind to (lie study outcomes. In I A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 289 0 0 0 0, :0 1 0 10 d 0 0 0@ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 @00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0?0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -0.20 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 Mean effect size Figure 2. Mean effect size by investigator for trimmed sample. N 57 in- vestigators. practice, this is usually not feasible, particularly jvhen, as in the pres- ent case, large numbers of studies are involved. For our analysis of study quality, statistical and methodological variables are defined and coded in terms of procedural descriptions (or their absence) in the research reports. This approach-was used in an earlier meta- analysis of psi ganzfeld research (Honorton, 1985), and it led to study quality ratings that were generally in agreement, r(26) = .766, p = 10", with independent "flaw" ratings by an outside critic (Hy- man, 1985). One point is given (or withheld) for each of the following eight criteria: Speciflc@tion of sample size. Does the investigator preplan the num- ber of trials to be included in the study or is the study vulnerable to the possibility of optional stopping? Credit is given to reports that explicitly'specify the sample size. Studies involving group testing, in which it is not feasible to specify the sample size precisely, @re also 0 -U ;U 290 The journal of Parapsychology given credit. No credit is given to studies in which the sample size is either not preplanned or not addressed in the experinicilial re- Owl. Preplanned analysis. Is the method of statistical analysis, including L outcome (dependent variable) measure, preplanned? Credit Is gg,en to studies explicitly specifying the form of analysis and the (Alcome measure. No credit is given to those not explicitly stating thq form of the analysis or those in which the analysis Is clearly post 11RC. ;URandomization method. Credit is given for use ofrandoin number tMes, random number generators, and mechanical shufflers. No c§d1it I's given for failure to randomize (i.e., use of "quasi-random liguralistic cvenls") or f0I- 11401-111111 II)COUXIS SUCII its hitild-ShUffling, d4casting, and drawing lots. SControls. Credit is given to studies reporting randomness control clecks, such as random number generator (RNG) control series and twirical cross-check controls. aRecording. One poini. Is allotted for automated recording of' tar- gf@ and responses, and another for duplicate recording- 6,'heching. One point is allotted for automated checking of 1115ches between target and response, and another for duplicate chl-king of hits. 0 St;9y Quality Analysis :§1_,ach study received it quality weight between 0 and 8 (mean 3.@ SD = 1.8). We find no significant relationship between Study qCd Ity and ES: r(246) = .081, p = .202, two-talled. This iendency cooequence that the qualfty-weighted z score of 6.26 is slightly t la7-r than the unweighted z of6.02. Table 3 shows the correlations bejeen effect size and each of the eight individual quality meas- urj3.` The mean effect sizes by quality level are displayed graphi- caig in Figure 3. CD -UThe correlation between ES and study quality is also nonsignificant for the un- trirj@ved sample of 309 studies: r(307) = -.060, p = .289. The quality-weighted z score is 738: p = 2.32 X 10-". However, three of the individual qualky measures are significantly related LO periormance. Gotarols and duplicate checking correlate significantly positively with ES, and randomization correlates significantly negatively with ES. These correlations appear to be due to a few studies with z scores that are extreme outliers (z > 7). When the 10 studies with z > 7 are eliminated, the signifi- cant correlations between (Itialityand ES disappear. A Meta-A. nalysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 29 TAM.F. 3 (A)IME.LATIONS BETWEIEN EFFEA.-V SIZE A.ND QUALi-i-Y NIL.NSURES Quality measure r(246) Sample size specified in - .100 advance Preplanned analysis - .001 Randomization - .011 Controls .058 Automated recording .169 Duplicate recording .047 Automated checking .136 Duplicate checking .078 Quality Extremes Is there a tendency for extremely weak studies to show larger effects than exceptionally "good" studies? Analysis on the extremes ot'Llie quality ratings indicates that this is not the case. This analysis, based on the untrimmed sample of 309 studies, USCS StIldiCS With qUillit)' I'atingS OULSide the interquartile range of' the rating distribution (median = 4, Q, 2, Q, @ 5). There are 56 "low-quality" studies (ratings of 0-1) and 35 "high-quality" studies (ratings of 6-8). The high-quality studies have effect sizes that are not significantly lower than the low-quality studies; the ES means are 0.017 (SD = 0.063) and 0.037 (SD 0.137), for the low- and high-quality Studies, respectively: t(82) -.92, p = .358, two- Lailed. Varu'Llion Precognition ES is not significantly related to source of publica- X2 tion: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA- (4). = 0.78, p _' .942. However, the sources of publication @iffer significantly in study X2 quality: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, (4) = 17.19, p = .002. This is due largely to the lower quality of studies published in the Journal of the Society for Psychical Research and in Research in Parapsy- chology. Study Quality in Relation to Year of Publication Precognition effect size has remained constant over a half-cen- tury of research, even though the methodological quality of the.re- > 0 < (D CL -n 0 1 X (D (D W 0 00 0 00 0 X 0 -0 -4 C4 CD 6 7% 40k 'The journal of Parapsychology 8 > -a7 13 - 06 7 (D 05 45 n 0 -14 63 (D _ "_ @-----J 35 8 (D A) (L 41 (D M Q1 31 Q Q CU 00 Q 00 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0 > @13 Mean effect size 0 @ure 3 Orecognition effect size in relation to study quality, with 95% con- ence l9its. N = 248 studies. I @rch & improved significantly during this period. The correla- n bet'gen ES and year of publication is -.071: t(307) = - 1.25, = .21ttwo-tailed. Study quality and year of publication are, how- !r, pogively and significantly correlated: r(246) = .282, p = 2 X -7, tw8tailed. Critic4of parapsychology have long believed that evidence for @apsy(Sological effects disappears as the methodological rigor in- ases. ;She precognition database does not support this belief". Q Q Q -;"'REAL-TIME" ALTERNATIVES TO PRECOGNITION -N Investigators have long been aware of the possibility that precog- ion effects could be modeled Without assuming either tinie rever- or backward causality. For example, outcomes from studies with A Alela-Analysis (?f Forced-Cholce Preco@qnitlon Experiments 293 targets based on indeterminate random number generators (RNGs) could be due to a causal influence on the RNG-a Dsvchokinetic (PK) effect-rather than information acquisition concerning its fu- Lure state. In experiments with targets based on prepared tables of I-MI(10111 numbers, the possibility exists that the experimenter or other randomizer may be the actual psi source, unconsciously using -rea!-tinle" ESP combined with PK to choose atry point in the an e. random number sequence that will significantly match the "sub- ject's" responses. While the latter possibility may seem far-fetched, it cannot be logically eliminated if one accepts the existing evidence for contemporaneous ESP and PK, and it has been argued that it Is less far-fetched than the alternative of "true" precognition. Morris (1982) discusses models of experimental precognition based on '.'real-time" psi alternatives and methods for testing "true" precognition. In general terms, these methods constrain the selec- tion of' the target sequence so as to eliminate nonprecognitive psi intervention. In the most common procedure, attributed to Mangan (1955), (lice are thrown (o generate ;I set of numbers that are inath- eniatically manipulated to obtain an entry point in the random num- ber utble. This procedure IS SLIfficiently complex "as to be appar- ently beyond the capacities of the human brain, thus ruling out PK because the TKer' would not know what to do even via ESP" (Mor- ris, 1982, p. 329). ,Ywo f catures of precognition study target determination proce- dures were coded to assess "real-time" psi alternatives to precogni- tion: method of determining random number table entry point and use of Mangan's method. Methods of eliminating "real-time" psi alternatives have not been used in studies with random number generators and have only been used in a small number of studies involving randomization by hand- Shuffling. These analyses are therefore restricted to studies using random number tables (N = 138). Method qf Determining RNT Ent?y Point The reports describe six different methods of obtaining entry. points in random number tables. If the study outcomes were due to subjects' precognitive functioning rather than to alternative psi modes on the part of the experimenter or the experimenter's as- sistants, there should be no difference in mean effect size across the various methods used to determine the entry point. Indeed, our analysis indicates that the study effect sizes do not vary system@ti- < r > -a 0 < (D CL 291 77hr./ournal of P(11Y1/)s),(.ho1qAn, cally its a f'unclion of' inelhod of' (lei crinin Ing die eniry poini: Krtis- kal-Wallis one-way ANOVA by ranks: X -(5) = 7.3 2, p 198. > -0 ?Me of Mangan's Method 0 < (D We find no significant difference in ES between studies using Anplex calculations of the Lype introduced by Mangan to fix the rghdorn number table entry point and those that do not use such c-Aculations: 1(45) = 0.38, p = .370, two-tailed. X (D F A) MODERATING VARIABLES Cn (D tQThe stability of precognition study outcomes over a 50-year pe- a r&J, which we described earlier, is also [)ad news. It shows that In- Quigators in this area have yet to develop sufficient understanding Zhe conditions underlying the OCCUrrence (or detection) of these eB@cts to reliably increase their magnitude. We have identilled four v,Wiables that appear to covary systematically with precognition ES: (@)selected versus unselected subjects, (2) individual versus group t63;ing, (3) feedback level, and (4) time interval between subject re- s*nse and target generation. loThe analyses use the raw study z scores and effect sizes; we I' S 11 Ind that this results In unif'ormly niore conservative e 1.1 iatcs of' tionships ivith moderating variables than when the analyses are b§ed on quality-weighted z scores and eff'cct sizes. -4 S@cted Veiiu5 UiLwlected Su@jects Z50ur meta-analysis identifies eight subject populations: unspeci- fi@g sul:ject populations, mixtures of several different populalions, als, students, children, "volunteers," experinienter(s), and se- 1i tald subjects. i0l'I'Fect size magnitude (foes not vary Significantly across thesc 2 ei IS, subject populafions: Kruskal-Wallis one-way ANOVA, X (7) 0' P = .143. Effect sizes by subject population are displayed in F'*Imare 4. However, studies using subjects selected on the basis of prior performance in experiments or pilot tests show significantly larger effects than studies using unselected subjects. As shown in Table 4, 60% of the studies with selected subjects are significant at the 5% level. The mean z score f'Or these studies is 1.39 (SD = 1.40). 'J'he ES is significantly higher for selected-subjecis studoes Own for s ild- 4 Mr/a-,4naNv1'S of Forred-Choit-r Precognilion Ex/wriinentv 295 Selected Exptr VolunLeer .0. Children 0 C1. sludellis Animals Mixed Unspec 25 12 26 1 -131 1-t-1 I o8 10 28 18 Mean effect size Figure -1. Precognition effeci size by subject 1)opulaiion, with 95% confi- dence limits. N = 248 studies. ies with unselected subjects. The I test of the difference in mean ES is equivalent to a point-biserial correlation of .198. Does (his difference result from less stringrent controls in with -selected subjects? The answer appears to be "No." The average quality of studies with selected subjects is higher than studies using TABLE 4 SELECTED VERSUS UNSELECTED SUBJECTS Selected Unselected N studies Combined z Studies with p. < .05 Mean ES SD,., 25 223 6.89 4.04 60% 21% .051 .008 .075 .063 -0 0 < (D OL -n 0 X (D Q C) C) 00 Q 00 X 0 a to C) C) 4 00 (D X q W L 0 Q _L C) C) Q -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 OM 0.02 (MM 0.06 0.08 0.10 296 The Journal of Parapsychology A BLE INDIVIDUAL VERSUS CROUP TEs-rING Individual Group studies 97 105 Allbincd Z 6.64 1.29 &dies with < .05 30% 19% 91an ES .021 .004 .060 .066 t (200) 1.89, p .03 Mselected subjects: t(27) = 1.51, p = .142, two-tailed. This result pears to reflect a general tendency toward increased rigor and YaDre detailed reporting in studies with selected subjects. Q Q adividual Versus Group Testing 00 Q 00 Subjects were tested in groups, individually, Or through tile Mail. Studies in which subjects were tested individually by an experimen- 61 have a significantly larger mean ES than studies involving group Oting (Table 5). X The t test of the difference is equivalent to a point-hiserial cor- 1 ation of .132, favoring individual testing. Of tile Studies witil still- .9 Jtats tested individually, 30% are significant at the 5% level. The methodological quality of studies with subjects tested indl- gually is significantly higher than that of studies involving group t4ting: t(137) = 3.08, p = .003, two-tailed. This result is consistent VAII the conjecture that group experiments are frequently con- iNcted as "targets of opportunity" and may often be carried out ljm@tily in an afternoon without the preparation and planning that ICY into a study with individual subjects that may be conducted over 98 4=-period of weeks or months. Thirty-five studies were conducted through the mail. In these 30dies, subjects completed the task at their leisure and mailed their &ponses to the investigator. These correspondence studies yield c;&tcomes similar to those involving individual testing. The coin- Alned z score is 2.66, with a mean ES of' 0.018 (SD = .082). Ten correspondence studies (25.7%) are significant at the 5% level. Eleven studies are unclassifiable with regard to experimental set- ting. A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments 297 TABLE 6 FEEDBACK RECEIVED BY SUBJECTS Feedback None of Results Trial-by-trial Delayed Run score 7 N sudies I F I 2i 47 21 " Conibined z - 1. 2.11 4.74 6.98 3 o Studies with 0.0% 19.0% 33.3% 42.6% p < .05 Mean ES -.001 .009 .023 .035 SD,, .028 .036 .048 .072 -- Feedback A significant positive relationship exists between the degree of feedback subjects receive about their performance and precognitive effect size (Table 6). Subject feedback information is available for 104 studies. These studies fail into four feedback categories: no feedback, aelayed feedback (usually notification by mail), run-score feedback, and trial-by-trial feedback. We gave' these categories numericat values between 0 and 3. Precognition effect size correlates .231 with feed- back level (102 df, p = .009). Of the 47 studies involving trial by- trial feedback, 20 (42.6%) are significant at the 5% level. None of the studies without subject feedback are significant. Feedback level correlates positively though not significantly with research quality: r(102) = .173, p = .082, two-taVed. Inadequate randomization is the most plausible source of potential artifacts in studies with trial-by-trial feedback. We performed a separate analy- sis on the 47 studies in this group. Studies using formal methods of randomization do not differ significantly in mean ES frorn'those with informal randomization: t(15) = 0.67, p'= .590, two-tailed. Similarly, studies reporting randomness control data do not differ significantly in ES from those not including randomness controls: t(42) = 0.79, p = .436, two-tailed. Tinte Interval The interval between the 'subject's response and target selection ranges from less than one second to one year. Information about the time interval is available for 144 studies. This information, h6w- 0 -0 G) > 0 < CL -n 0 0 0 0 2@0 0 00 . . 0 > X 0 a to 0 4 .00 W 0 0 71 4@6 298 > Niollills 0 < (D CL Weeks -n 0 I Days CD Hours fu .2 = W (D 0 millutes " U CD (D CD Seconds C) 00 C) Millisec 00 Die -hoh@gy Journal Paral),%p 0 0 a Meall eflect. size to re 5. Effect size by precognition 144 studies. 00 to inierval, with 950/c confidence limits. !P @,is @often im3rec@iseO@qranal @sis of @the r@elatioilshibetiv = '-w-cognitive ES and time interval is therefore limited to seven broad ifderval categories: milliseconds, seconds, minutes, hours, days, ks, and months. (Effect sizes by precognition interval are dis- 11yed in Figure 5.) (:)Although it is coni'Minded widi degree of' feedback, there is a s&ificant decline in precognition ES over increasing temporal dis- tithce: r(I 42) 199, p = .0 17, two-talled. The largest effects oc- JW over the millisecond interval: N = 31 studies, combined z = 6.03, mean ES = 0.045, SD = .073. The smallest effects occur over periods ranging from a month to it year: N = 7, combined z = 0.53, mean ES = 0.001, SD = .049. Interestingly, the decline of precognition performance over in- creasing temporal distances resulb entirely front studies USing,%U11- t@'Forced-Choice Precogiiii'oti E _Y15ermietits 299 sclecied stil)jects: r(122) = -.235, p = .009, two-lailed. Sitidies with SeleC[Cd subjects show it nonsignificant positive relationship between ES and Iiiiie interval: r(18) = .077, p = .745, two-talled. Although the diffCt-ciice between dieSe two correlatiORS is 110L Signit' iCallL (Z 1.24), Lilts Suggests that the origin of the decline over time may be motivational rather than the result of some intrinsic physical bound- ary condition. The relationship between precognition ES and feed- back also supports this conjeclure. Nevertheless, ally finding SUg- gesting potential boundary Conditions oil the phenomenon should be vigorously pursued. Influence of Moderating Variables in Combination The above analyses examine the impact of each moderating var lable in isolation. In this final set of analyses, we explore their joint influence oil [)recognition perf-01-111anCe. For this JAII-J)We, we iden tit' two subgroups of studies. One Subgroup is characterized by the y use of' selected subjects tested individually with trial-by-trial feed- back. We refer to this as the Ophnial group (N = 8 studies). The second group is characterized by the use of' unseiected subjects tested in groups with no feedback. We refer to Lilts its the Suboptlinal group (N = 9 studies). The Optimal Studies are contributed by four independent inves- tigators and the Suboptimal studies are contributed by two of the same four investigators. All of the Optimal studies involve short pre- cognition time intervals (millisecond interval); the Suboptimal stud- ies involve longer intervals (intervals of weeks or months). All of the Optimal studies and 5 of the 9 Suboptimal studies use RNG meth- pie size. The mean study quality for the Optimal group signifi- cantly higher than that of the Suboptimal studies: Optimal mean = 6.63, SD = 0.92; Suboptimal mean = 3.44, SD = 0.53; 1( 0) = 8.63, p = 3.3 X 10-", two-tailed. The combined impact of the moderating variables appears to be, quite strong (Table 7). Seven of the 8 Optimal studies (87.5%) are independently significant at the 5% level, whereas none of the S b- optimal studies are statistically significant. All four investigators con- Lributing studies to the Optimal group have significant outcomes.' 1 1 ' Ill the untrinimed saniple ol'309 studies, there are a total of 17 Optimal Studies. rhe nican ES is 0A 17 (SD = .154), and the combined z is 15.84. The percentage of ill dependent I Y significant studies is Virlually the saille Is it is ill Ille 16111111Cd sa.111ple: 15 ofthe 17 studies (88.2%) are significant. 0 < (D CL -n 0 M (D CD fu W (D Q C) CD C) 00 -- C) 00 0 > @U 0 U to 4711 6 CD 4- 00 to CD C4 CD CD -L K) C) CD CD A Meta-Analysi5 (J'Forced-Choice Precogwition Expe7iments 30 TABLE 7 11NIPACrOF MODERATORS IN COMBINATION "Optimal" Studies "Suboptimal" studies studies 8 9 Mombined z 6.14 -1.29 0 -0 0 M CL -n 0 CD 00 00 0 - > @u 0) I 4 .00 W X 0 0 _L 0 0 301) The jou; nal tj Pa) ajmyi hology B@NRNVJ 1, V. 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E., & HITE, D. D. (1983). Psi-missing and displacement: Evidenc'e for improperly fiOCLIsed psi? Journal of the American Socielyfor P.SychicalRe- search, 77, 209-228. inary findings. Research in Parapsychology 1982, 103-105. .101INSON, M., & HARAI.D.S.SON, E. (1984). The Defense Mechanism 'I@s( ;is a predictor ofESP scores: Icelandic studies I:V and V.Journalo]'Parap5ychology, 48, 185-200. TEDDER, W. (1984). Coinputer-based long-distance ESP: Ali exploratory ex- amination (RB/PS). Research in Parapsychology 1983, 100- 101. HESELTINE, G. L. (1985). PK success during structured and nonstructured RNG opcrafion. filurnal of Fhrapsycholo@,y, 49, 155-163. HARALDSSON, E., &.JOHNSON, M. (1986).The Def@nse Mechanism Test (DMT) as a prediC101- OfESP pel-161-111allCe: Icelandic studies V I and V I I. Research in Farapswhology 1985, 43-44. VASSY, Z. (1986). Experimental study ofcomplexity dependence in precogni- tion. Journal of Parapsychology, 50, 235-270. 04 Ct) co I 0. co 0 co C*4 (1) U) 7aj 0 LL (D > 0 L CL F- (D ry C) yo 'otoqvwvjj 91"C 69@'-YIW '0 d vuojvtoqv7 q9-lvgs',?g IvOlyd'140119@9d 'OU _@01-1 LL .1c, I'viimor @qns li?tioiid;).-)x;) ur tillm -.Iql!l .1mild ul;):)UT!tuiojjpd dSg mij-jrxi pup uoll, 0()jo'1lWv-tT),j fo 7minof 97/.l 11 C*4 (ym co 1- a. co co 0 C14 U) m 0 LL 0 CL Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 2 Paranormal Communication "Error Some Place!" by Charles Honorton Review of the ESP controversy traces debate from statistical and methodological issues to the a priori critique and the paradigm of "normal science." CPYRGHT Ap Asked his opinion of ESP, a skeptical psychologist once retorted, "Error Some Placel" I believe he was right, but for the wrong reasons. Western science has always been ambivalent toward the mental side of reality, and it is perhaps not surprising that the occurrence of "psychic" phenomena is one of the most controversial topics in the history of science. The first serious effort toward scientific examination of psi claims was undertaken by the Society for Psychical Research (SPR), founded in London in 1882 for the purpose of "making an organized and systematic attempt to investigate the large group of phenomena designated by such terms as mesmeric, psychical, and spiritualistic." The SPR leadership included many distinguished scholars of the period, and similar organizations quickly spread to other countries, including the American Society for Psychical Re- search, founded in New York in 1885 under the aegis of William James, who himself took an active role in early investigations of mediumistic communications. These turn-of-the-century investigators focused much of their attention on authenticating individual cases of spontaneous experiences suggestive of psi communication. While a great deal Of PTOVOC2ti,.,e material was care- fully examined and reported (e.g., 13), the limitations inherent in the case study approach prohibited definitive conclusions. However thoroughly au- thenticated, spontaneous cases cannot provide adequate assessment of such potential sources of contamination as chance coincidence, unconscious in- ference and sensory leakage, retroactive falsification, or deliberate fraud. Charles Honorton is director of research in the Division Of Parapsychology and Psychophysics, Department of Psychiatry, Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, N.Y. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789RP03100120001-4 CPYRGHT journal of CA"mnunication, Winter 1975 Early experimental approaches primarily involved the "telepathic" Tepro- duction of drawings at a distance (62). While often striking correspondences were obtained, the experimental conditions did not usually provide for random selection cJ target (stimulus) material, and were not always totally adequate with respect to the possibility of sensor leakage, intentional or otherwise. 1@ Neither the spontaneous case studies nor the early experimental efforts made much impact upon the scientific community, hough they drew critical comment from prominent period scientists. "Neit ler the testimony of all the Fellows of the Royal Society, nor even the evi nce of my own senses," proclaimed Helmholtz, d. would lead me to believe in the transmission of thought from one person to another independently of the recognized chan- nels of sense." Thomas Huxley declined an invitation to participate in some of the early SPR investigations, saying he would sooner listen to the idle gossip of old women. The rudiments of an ex erimenial methodology for testing psi were suggested three centuries ago by Francis Bacon. In Sylva Sylvarum, a work published posthu ously, Bacon discussed experiments in consort, monitory, touching trar smission of spirits and forces of imagination." He suggested that "the in( tions of shuffling cards, or casting of dice" could be used to test the "bi iding of thoughts. . . . The experiment of binding of thoughts should be diversified and tried to the full; and you are to note whether it hit for t most part though not always" (2). The application of probability theory to the assessment of deviations from theoretically expected chance outcomes was introduced to psychical research in 1884 by the French Nobel laureate, Charles Richet, in experi ments involving card-guessing. The popularity of card-guessing as an ex perimental methodology was greatly influenced by he work of J. B. Rhine and his associates at Duke University in the early I )30s. Rhine (50) devised a standard set of procedures around 2 simplified card deck containing .e' se ue randomized gn s 0 f five geometric forms (c rcle, cross, wavy lines, c Ircle 4@_ square, and ircl . These "ESP cards" were pTepaed in packs of 25, and 1 "@e;c i @'run-Srough the pack was associated with a onstant binomial prob- 15 ability of 1/5, since subjects were not given tri;l-by-trial feedback. Provid- ing the experimental conditions were adequate to eliminate illicit sensory cubes, recording errors, and rational inference, statistically significant de- partures from binomial chance expectation were interpreted as indicating extrasensory communication. Initially, "telepathy" tests consisted of having a subject in one room attempt to identify the order of the cards as they were observed by an agent" in another room. In "clairvoyance- tests, the subject attempted to guess" the order of the cards directly, as they lay -oncealed in an opaque Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789RP03100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000108108- CI,A-;;RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT fournal of Communication, Winter 1975 scores were in all cases nonsignificant, with a mean scoring rate of 5.04 (43). Several critics questioned the applicability of the binomial. distribution as a basis for assessing the statistical significance of ESP card-guessing data. WillOLIgliby (78) proposed the use of an empirical control series, but later withdrew the suggestion after comparing the two methods (79). Alternative methods of deriving the probable error and recommendations for using the empirical standard deviation were 2150 proposed and later withdrawn (2), 22). Concern over this issue diminished and was generally abandoned following the publication of a large chance control series involving half a million trials and demonstrating close approximation to the binomial model (12). Another question arose about whether the binomial model provides sufficient approximation to the normal distribution to allow use of normal probability integral tables for determination of significance levels (17). Stuart and Greenwood (73) showed that when the normal distribution is used as an approximation to the binomial model, discrepancies are im- portant only with cases of borderline significance and few trials. The use of the binomial critical ratio (z) to evaluate the significance of the ESP card-guessing deviations was generally approved by professional statisticians (6, 20). Fisher (10). however, commented that high levels of statistical significance should not be accepted as substitutes for independent replication. In another vein, Huntington (20) asked, "If mathematics has successfully disposed of the. hypothesis of chance, what has psychology to say about the hypothesis of tSP?" Th e most frequently expressed methodological concern was the possibility of some form of "sensory leakage," gitdng the ESP subject enough information about the targets to "count for significant, extrachance results. As early as 1895, two Danish psychologists, Hansen and Lehmann (16), reported that with the aid of parabolic reflectors subjects could detect digits and other material silently concentrated upon by an agent. In these experiments, the subject and agent sat with their heads close to the foci of two concave mirrors. While the agent concentrated on the number, he made a special effort to ket-p his lips dosed. Under these conditions, the subjects were frequently successful in identifying the number. These results were interpreted by Hansen ahd Uhmann as supporting the hypothesis of "involuntary whispering." The utilization of subtle sensory cues was demonstrated in a careful investigation by S. G. Soal of a stage "telepathist" (66). There were also reports, such as the case of "Ilga K.," a mentally retarded Latvian child who could read any text, even in a foreign language, when someone stood behind her, reading "silently." Experiments with dictaphone recordings revealed that "Ilga" was responding to very slight auditory cues (3). 106 Approved For Release 2000108108 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08108: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT Paranormal i.rommurlicalion / "Error Sow container or in another room, without an agent. "Precognition" tests, introduced somewhat later (59), required the subject to make anticipatory guesses of the card order before the pack was shuffled or otherwise random- ized. Rhine introduced the term "ESP" in-his first major rep6rt on the Duke University work in 1934 (50). He reported a total of 85,7g4 caTd-guessing trials, carried out with a wide variety _of subjects and undor a wide range of test conditions. The results as a whole were astronomitally significant, though informal exploratory trials were indiscriminately pooled with those carried out under more carefully controlled conditions. Tho' best-controlled work during this period was the Pearce-Pratt distance seriesi of clairvoyance tests (58), in which the subject, Pearce, located in one buil4g, attempted to identify the order of the cards as they were handled, but': not viewed, by Pratt, the experimenter, located in another building. The 1@vel of accuracy obtained in this series of 1,850 trials was associated with a: probability of I 0-=. As a stimulant to experimental research, Rhine's work had unprece- dented influence. For the first time a common methodol @ 00 was adopted and employed on a large scale by a number of independ@nt and widely separated investigators. For the first time, also, the scientific community was confronted with a body of data,- collected through conVientional meth- ods, which it could no longer ignore-nor too hastily acc@pt. The wide- scale adoption of the card-guessing methodology was accompanied by a plethora of critical articles, challenging almost every aspeccof the evalua- tive techniques and the experimental conditions. During the period be- tween 1934 and 1940, approximately 60 critical articles by 40 authors ap- peared, primarily in the psychological literature. While Ord-guessing is no longer the primary methodology in experimental para sychology. the questions which arose over its use are of equal relevanc@ to the more sophisticated approaches used today. The first major issue concerned the validity of the assut@ption that the probability of success in the; card-guessing experiments wa, actually 115. If chance expectation is other than 1/5, the significance of the observed deviations would obviously be in doubt. This issue was qu"ckly resolved by mathematical proof and through empirical "cross-chec4i," a form of control series in which responses (guesses) were deliberately compared with target orders for which they were not intended (e.g., respon@es on run n, matched with the target sequence for run n.,). Empirical cro s-checks, were reported for 24 separate experimental series involving a tdtal of 12,228 runs (305,700 individual trials). While the actual experimenial run scores (e.g., guesses on run n, compared to targets for run ni) were highly sig- nificant and yielded a mean scoring rate of 7.23/25, the contr@l cross-clieck Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT Paraw"I'lld Communication "Effor Sme Pla :er, It is clear that at least some of the early exploratory series reported in Rhine's monograph were open to criticism for inadequate controls against sensory cues. While Rhine did not base major conclusions on such poorly controlled data, inclusion of them in his monograph provided a ready target for critical reviewers and sidetracked discu@ssion away from the better con- trolled work, such as the Pearce-Pratt seri0s, which was not susceptible to explanation by sensory cues. Defects in an early commercial printing of ESP cards were reported by several investigators (18, 25). It was found that the cards were warped and could under certain conditions be identifie4 from the back. This discovery circulated widely for a time as in explanation of all successful (i.e., statis- tically significant) experimental series. The parapsychologists retorted that defective cards had not been employed in any of the experiments reported in the literature and that, in any case, they could not account for results from studies involving adequate screening with such devices as opaque envelopes, screens, distance, or work involving the precognition paradigm in which the target sequences were not generated until after the subject had made his responses (53, 54, 72). - By 1940 nearly one million experimental trials had been reported under conditions which precluded sensory leakage. These included five studies in which the target cards were enclosed in opaque sealed envelopes (41, 45, 46, 54, 59), 16 studies employing opaque screens (7, 8, 11, 19, 33, 34, 35, 38, 41, 42, 44, 45, 46, 59, 71), ten studies involving separation of subjects and targets in different buildings (50, 51, 52, 53, 34, 32, 8, 77, 61, 60), and two studies involving precognition tasks (59, 75). These data are summarized in Table 1. The results were independently significant in 27 of the 33 experi- ments. By the end of the 1930s, there was general agreement that the better- controlled ESP experiments could not be accounted for on the basis of sensory leakage. The hypothesis that significant "extrachance" deviations in ESP experi- ments might be attributable to motivated scoring errors was investigated in several studies. In one investigation (26), 28 observers recorded 11,125 mock ESP trials. Of these, 126 (1.13 percent) were misrecorded. Observers favor- Table 1: ESP card-guessing experiments (1934-1939) excluding sensory cues- Method Studies N (Trials) Mean/25 P< "Clairvoyance" paradigm. stimuli in sealed, opaque envelopes 5 129,775 5.21 4.0 X 10-11 "Clairvoyance" paradigm, stimuli concealed by opaque screens 16 497.450, 5.44 2.D-X 101-11 Distanceb 10 164,475 5.37 Wit Precognition paradigme 2 115,330 5.15 2.95 X 10-4 References given In text. Includes work with both "telepathy" and "clairvoyance" paradigms Stimuli generated after subjects made their responses Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-41#7 Approved For Release 2000108108: CPYRGHT Journal of Communication, WinW 1975 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 able to the ESP hypothesis made 71.5 percent iore errors of commission (increasing ESP scores), while those who werdl, unfavorable to the ESP hypothesis made 100 percent more errors of @Oinission (decreasing ESP scores). Murphy (17) reported an analysis of 175,000 trials from experiments reporting positive evidence for ESP and found 4only 175 errors (0-10 per- cent). Greenwood (12) rep@rted only 90 recordilg errors in rechecking his 500,000-trial control study, of which 76 were errors of omission. Some critics also alleged that improper selection of data could account for experimental successes. This could be done in', several ways: (a) selection of subjects; (b) selection of particular blocks of 4ata out of larger samples, (c) selection of one of several forms of analysis; and (d) selective reporting of particular studies. The_questions raised ha*e sometimes been stated cynically in the form, "Parapsychologists must. run 100 subjects before they find one with 'ESP'." As if in defense against this charge, a number of the reported studies specifically stated that all of the data collected were included in the analysis (see 43, pp. 118-124, Table 12). Concerning selection of subjects, Warner (7@) suggested two criteria- first, results of "poor" subjects must be included up to the point when they are discontinued since it does not matter how many trials a given subject makes as long as all of the trials (for all subjects) are included; second, exclude all preliminary trials (for both"'good" and "poor" sub- jects) and use preliminary screening studies to select "good" candidates for formal work. These criteria were generally endorsed by the chief critics of the period (e.g., 23). The question of post hoc selection of analyses ivas not a point of serious concern in the period between 1934 and 1940, tholugh it is relevant to the assessment of some of the process-oriented inveitigations, reported more recently. The question of whether nonsignifica@t studies were withheld from publication involves an issue which is of 'great toncern to the be- havioral sciences as a whole (70, 81) and one which is difficult to accurately assess since there is no way of knowing how many studies may have been withheld from publication because their results ifailed to disconfirm the null hypothesis. Several studies of American Psychological Ass iation publication poli- cies (4, 70, 81) indicate that experimental studies Z, general are more likely to be published if the null hypothesis is rejected' at the conventional .05 and .01 alpha levels than if it is not rejected. These studies also indicate that a negligible proportion of published studies 4re replications. Bozarth and Roberts (4), in a survey of 1,334 articles fron@i psychological journals, found that 94 percent of the articles involving stat4tical tests of significance reported rejection of specific null hypotheses; onlyll eight articles (less than I percent) involved replications of previously published studies. With respect to the implications of such selecti for the ESP hypothesis, there are two partial answers. First, considering th@ degree of critical inter- est which prevailed in the 1930s, it seems unlikely:that nonsignificant find- ings would have been repressed during this period'. second, the high levels Approved For Release 2000108108: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Ap p rqyeAt4@;M-Fe I ease 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Pdranorqid Communkation / "Error of significance attached to some of the reported ESP investigations would necessitate postulating astronomical ntimbers of "chance" trials in order to dilute the overall deviations to chance. To take one example, consider the Pearce-Pratt series of 1,850 trials which yielded p = 10-22. As Soal and Bateman (66) pointed out, it is difficult to believe that 1011) (ten thousand million) sets of 1,850 trials could have possibly been carried out between 1934 and 1940 (or, for that matter, since 1940). But, as Soal and Bateman suggest ...... if we posit this absurd esti -mate as an upper limit [with overall chance totals], that would still give us odds of 1010 ... against the supposi- tion that the Pearce-Pratt results were a run of pure luck." The possibility of obtaining significant "extrachance" results by stopping an experimental series at "favorable" points was also raised (9, 31). While this "optional stopping" hypothesis was generally agreed to be of significance only in cases of marginally significant results, it led to the adoption of several procedural modifications: specification of the total number of trials in advance of data collection, or accumulation of data in blocks of pre- determined size. The possibility was raised by several critics that hand-shuffled cards may display a tendency to stick together or otherwise produce patterns which could produce spurious results (24, 82). While the cross-check type of con- trol series, described earlier, failed to reveal any evidence of patterning, there was a general trend away from hand shuffling in the later published studies, which utilized tables of prepared random numbers as a basis for generating target sequences. There was-and is (e.g., 15)-a rather widespread belief that most of the evidence supporting the ESP hypothesis originated in the Duke Uni- versity studies and that most independent. replications by other investigators were noncon firma tory. A survey of the published literature between 1934 and 1940 fails to support this claim. Table 2 shows all the published experi- mental reports during this period which provided statistical treatment of the data. Inspection of this table reveals that a majority (61 percent) of the outside replications report significant results (p < .01) and that the proportion of significant studies was not significantly greater for the Duke University group (,X2 = 1.70, 1 df). By 1940, the active methodological controversy was over. The issues raised were, for the most part, legitimate, and investigators modified their procedures to safeguard their results from methodological criticism, The major issues raised since 1940 center on alleged anomalies in probability theory and the hypothesis of widespread investigator fraud. Spencer Brown (68, 69) has suggested that statistically significant card- guessing studies provide evidence, not of extrasensory Modes of communica. tion, but of fundamental defects in probability theory. He makes three criticisms of random number sequences: (a) published random number mWeipp 109 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT JOUrnal Of Communicagion, M"W 1975 Table 2: Breakdown of experimental ESP studies (1934-1939) N N studies report (Studlesy significant (p < % signit. 17 15 88 Duke group Non-DuW 33 20 61 Total 50 35 70 a Includes all English-language studies involving assessmbnt of statistical significa of data, 1934-1939 inclusive. X1 (Duke vs. non-Duke X significant vs. nonsignificant) 1.70 (1 df) sequences have been "doctoied" prior to publication in order to remove certain nonrandom features; this practice, accord.,ing to Spencer Brown, makes such sequences nonrAndorn and invalida4s the use of standard significance tests; (b) the source of some random nuinber sequences involve! randomizing machines which utilize the unpredii;:tability of human be. havior when examined for. microscopic variation'; such variation, say@ Spencer Brown, may be predictable enough to account for observed anom. alies in random sequences, as well as some of the sigilificant results reported in ESP guessing experiments;. (c) Spencer Brown pr4duces evidence to show that anomalous (significant) departures from probability theory can be obtained by matching columns of random number's (39). A detailed examination of these points was undertaken by Scott (64). With respect to "doctored" sequences, Scott showed that the maximum error due to rejected (edited) sequences would nok affect interpretations of results which are more than marginally signific@ant and could, in fact, increase the likelihood of making a Type 11 error. On the hypothesis that ESP results are due to some kind of hyper-regularl,ity affecting both the target sequence and the response (guess) seqpen& simultaneously and similarly, Scott makes the point that this would lead to the expectation of similar results from matching any set of humanlyl produced random se- quences. The cross-check type of control series and ihe Greenwood chance control series described earlier demonstrate that thi's is not the case. The anomalies reported by Spencer Brown (68), obtained @y arbitrarily matching columns of random numbers, have been criticized on the basis of post hoc selection (40) and illustrate not that there are fundamental defects in prob- ability theory, but rather that significant deviati8ns from chance can occur in any data where hypotheses and analyses are not specified in advance. The most recent phase of the ESP controversy ceriters on the hypothesis of investigator fraud. This argument was most for@efully prese .nted in a lead article in Science, entitled "Science and the Supernatural," by G. R. Price (47), who began with the following observations Believers in psychic phenomena appear to have won a decisive victory and virtually silenced opposition. This victory is the result of an impressive amount of careful experimentation and intelligent argumentation. . . . Against all this evidence, almost the only defense Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Apprn%F(Velease 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Paranormat rommunication / "Error Sotne Placel" remaining to the skeptical scientist is ignorance, ignorance concerning the work itself and concerning its implications. The typical scientist contents himself with regaining . . . some criticism that at most applies to a small fraction of the published studies. But these findings (which challenge our very concepts of space and time) are-if valid-of enor: motes importance . . . so they ought not to be ignored. Following Hume's argument on miracles, Price asserted that ESP is "incompatible with current scientific theory," and that it is therefore more parsimonious to believe that parapsychologists cheat than that ESP is a real phenomenon. He concluded, "My opinion conceming the findings of the parapsychologists is that many of them are dependent on clerical and statistical errors and unintentional use of sensory clues, and that all extra- chance results not so explicable are dependent an deliberate fraud or mildly abnormal mental conditions" (47, p. 360). This extraordinary critique and the ensuing discussion in Science (5, 36, 48, 55, 56, 65) were widely reviewed. As Meehl and Scriven (46) pointed out, Price's argument rests on two highly questionable assumptions, namely that. contemporary scientific knowledge is complete, and that ESP necessarily conflicts with it. Seventeen years later, in an "Apology to Rhine and Soal," Price retracted his accusations of investigator fraud (49). Very similar arguments have, however,_ been made more recently by the British parapsychological critic C. E. M. Hansel (14, 15), who began his examination of the ESP hypothesis by suggesting that "the a priori arguments . . .may even save time and effort in wr-utinizing the [ESP] experiments .... In view of the a priori arguments against it we know in advance that telepathy, etc., cannot occur." Because of the "a priori unlikelihood" of ESP, Hansel's examination of the literature centered primarily on the possibility of fraud, by subjects or investigators. He reviewed in depth four experiments which he regarded as providing the best evidence of ESP: the already-mentioned Pearce-Pratt distance series (59); the Pratt-Woodruff (44) series, also conducted at Duke; and Soal's work with Mrs. Stewart and Basil Shackleton (66), as well as a more recent series by Soal and Bowden (67). Hansel showed, in each case, how fraud could have been committed (by the experimenters in the Pratt-Woodruff and Soal-Bateman series, and by the subjects in the Pearce- Pratt and Soal-Bowden experiments). He gave no direct evidence that fraud was committed in these experiments but said, "If the result could have arisen through a trick, the experiment must be considered unsatisfactory proof of ESP, whether or not it is finally decided that such a trick was in fact used" (15, p. 18, italics mine). Hansel's argument is unclear, inasmuch as he quite properly insists that no single experiment can be conclusive, then proceeds to show that none is, given the theoretical possibility of fraud by subjects or investigators. Hansel's only conclusion after more than 250 pages of careful scrutiny was that these experiments were not "fraud-proor* and therefore not con- clusive proof of ESP. IZI Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08108 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 J Two recent examples, one involving cancer research (74) and the other involving parapsychology (57), serve to remind us of the importance of cross-validation in the assessment of any experi@,nental finding. In both cases, it should be added, the fraudolent acts wtrc detected in-house, by the researchers themselves. The point is that in th' final analysis an experi. mental finding is of valtie and is to be taken seriously only to the extent that it leads to further inqtiir),. To regard any Oxperiment as an end in itself is to remove it from the domain of experime@tal science. It is obvious that hypothetical construct, such as ESP, cannpt be validated by any isolated experiment, no matter how well controlled it might be. Inde- pendent replication is a necessary prerequisite. The claim that psi phenomena operate I outside the framewor@ of physical probability has been a major source of a I priori arguments ag@inst acceptance of ESP. It has been suggested that to accept ESP r@quires the rejection of physics. This is absurd, and it is Worth noting th'at such arguments have usually been advanced and defended by psycli@logists rather than by physicists. The debate over the incompatibility of p)iyiics and ESP has been conducted almost exclusively within the framewor@k of nineteen th-century deterministic physics, wherein the ultimate constituent of physical reality was still believed to be solid matter. Inasmuch as dern microphysics has exorcised the material out of matter and deals 1114,ioth processes which on our macrophysical level of sensor), perception are @very bit as erratic and anomalous as ESP, the a priori claim that ESP violates specifiable laws of physics can no longer be considered to be of moreithan historical interest. ESP and other psi phenomena, while no lor@ger incompatible with physics, are not yet accounted for by physics; but then, neither are the more familiar processes of memory and conscious @Xperience. Indeed, the transformation of "raw feels" into conscious experience is no less a problem for the neurophysiologists of today than it was for: the speculative philos. ophers of classical antiquity. Sir John Eccles, amon@ others, has repeatedly warned, "We should not pretend that coiisciousnes@. is not a mystery." The ESP controversy illustrates several features of the paradigmatic view of-science developed by Thomas Kohn (28). Normal science, according to Kuhn, is essentially a clean-up operation, cobstrained by a broad theoretical framework, or paradigm, which defines tlie boundaries of legiti- mate inquiry. Paradigms are scientific world views which provide coherence and structure and deter-mine the types of questions'to be posed of nature, as well as the manner in which answers are sought. ;Normal science is thus a process of paradigm-articulation, rather than of discovery. Within the p2radigm structure of normal science, observations which conflict with 112 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT Paranormat Communicatio" / "Error Some Place!' the paradigm are seldom made-, anomalies ire ignored. When the anomalies become sufficiently persistent thm thcN, can no longer be ignore(l, they ire hofly dispute(]. Eventually, a new paradigm is tentatively erected which attracts a group of adheren(s, an(l a period of crisis ensties which Kuhn calls a paradigm clish. In this review I have focused at surne length on the period of the 1930s, not because it provides the best available evidence for ESP or the best understanding of the processes underlying its operation-it does neither, but rather because it was dtiring this period that the major substawive methodological issues were raised and to a large extent con- sensually resolved. Since 1940, well ovor 10,000 journal pages devoted to parapsychological research have been published, and at least 250 experi- mental studies have been reported. The methodological foundations of the research have gradually diversified, enlarging and enriching (fie scope of inquiry and providing a basis for more sophisticated study. Automated testing equipment has replaced card-guessing in forced-choice ESP tasks, and quantitative methods have been developed for the objective assessment of psi interactions in nonguessing tasks. Psychophysiological techniques, permitting determination of psi-optimal organismic states, have been in- troduced and utili7.ed in conjunction with experimental methods more closely approximating the conditions tinder which psi interactions occur in vivo. More important, parapsychological investigators have to a large extent shifted their attention away from the "proof-oriented" approach, which can on]y reaffirm the presence of anomaly, toward systematic at- tempts to identify the antecedent conditions necessary for the occurrence and detection of psi interactions, the delineation of positive attributes, and the study of individual differences. Only through the pursuit of such .. process-oriented" research can we ever hope to achieve the goals of control, assured replicability (or at least predictability), and eventual understanding. REFERENCES 1. American Psychological As%ociation, "ESP Symposium at the American Psychological Association." Journal of Parapsychology 2, 1938, pp, 247-272. Bell. M. "Francis Bacon, Pioneer in P2172PS)'ChOlOgy." International journal of Para. psi-rhology 6, 19K pp. 199-208. I. Bender, 14. "The Case of Ilga K.: Report of a Phenomenon of Unusual Perception." journal of Parapsychology 2, 1938, pp. 5-22. I. Rozarth, J. D., and R. R. Roberts. "Signifying significant Significance." American Psychologist 27. 1972. pp. 774-775. Bridgman, P. IV. "Probability, Logic, and ESP." Science 123, 1956. pp. 15-17. Camp, B. H. "Statement tinder 'Notes.'" lou"Pal of Parapsycholo . 1. 1937, p. 305- gy Carpenter, C. R., and H. R. Phalen. "An Expciimcnt in Card Guessing." Journal of Parapsychology 1, 1937, pp. 31-43. Crumbaugh. J. C. An Experimental Study of Extra-sensory Perception. M.A. Thesis, 1938, Southern Methodist University Library. Feller. NV. "Statistical Aspects of ESP." Journal of Parapsychology 4, 1940, pp. 27)-298. 0. Fisher. R. A. Letter to J. B. Rhine, cited in (50), p. 45. 113 Approved For Release 2000108108: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CPYRGHT Journal of Communication. Wil"Ler 1975 CIA-RDP96-00789RQ03100120001-4 11. Gibson. E. P. -A Study of COMp2r2tiVC Performance in Several ESP Procedures." Journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp. 264-275. 12. Greenwood. J. A. Analysis Of 2 Large Chance Contr!l Series of ESP D2(a." Journal of ParaInyrhology 2, 1938, pp. 138-146. 13. Gurney. E., F. Myers, and F. Podmore. Phnntasms @f the Living (2 vols.). I.nndon: Trubncr and Co., JR86. 14. Hansel. C. E. M. "Experimehts-on Tclep2thy in Childr@n." British Journal of Statistical Psychology 15. 060, pp. 175-178. 15. Hansel. C. E. M. ESP-A Scientifir Evaluation. New York-. Scribners, 1966. 16. Hansen, F. C. C., and A. Lehmann. "VI)cr Unwilikorliches Flikstern." Philosophical Studies 17. 1895, pp. 471-530. 17. Heinlein. C. P., and J. H. Heinlein. "Critique of th@ Premises and Statistical Meth. odology of Para psychology." journal of Psychology 6. 1938, pp. 135-148. 18. Hcrbcrt, C. V. C. "Experiment in Extra-scnsory Per@eption." Journal of the Society for Psychical Research 30. 1938, pp. 215-21 R. 19. Humphrey. R. M., and J. A. Clark. "A Comparison of IC12irvoyant and Chance Match. ing."Journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938, pp. 31-37. i 20. Huntington, E. V. "Is It Chance or ESP?" American .1cholar 7. 1938. pp. 201-210. 21. Kellogg. C. E. "Dr. J. B. Rhine and Extra-scnsory PeIrception." journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 31, 1936, pp. 190-193. 22. Kellogg, C. E. "New Evidence (?) for Extra-sensory @erception." Scientific Afonthly, 1937. pp.-331-341. 23. Kellogg, C. E. Critical comments in (43). pp. 228-238. 24. Kennedy,]. L. "A Methodological Review of Extra-s@nsory Perception. Psychological Bulletin 36, 1939, pp. 59-103. 25. Kennedy, J. L. "The Visual Cues from the Backs of the ESP C21`ds." journal of Psychology 5. 1938, pp. 149-153. 26. Kennedy, J. L., and H. F. Uphoff. "Expetiments op the Nature of Extr2-sensory Perception: 111. The Recording Error Criticism of Extra-chance Scores." journal of Parapsychology 3.1939, pp. 22&-245. 27. Kennedy, J. L. Critical comments in (43), pp. 218-220. 28. Kuhn, T. S. The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. Phicago: University of Chicago Press, 1962. i 29. Lcmmon, V. W. "The Role of Selection in ESP Data@" @i journal of Parapsychology 3. 1939, pp. 104-106. 30. Lemmon. V. W. Critical comments in (43), pp. 222-228. 31. Leub2, C. "An Experiment to Test the Role of Chanc in ESP RCW2rch," journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938, pp. 217-221. 32. ItfacF2fland, J. D. "Discrimination Shown llctwceni Experimenters by Subjects." journal of Paraps '1chology 2. 1938, pp. 160-170. 33. MacFarland, J. D., and R. W. George. "Extra-senso Ih- Perception of Normal and Distorted Symbols." journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937 p. 93-101. 34. Martin, D. R. "Chance and Extra-chancc Results i C2rd-1112tching." journal of Parapsychology 1, 1937, pp. 185-190. 35. Martin, D. R., and F. P. Stribic. "Studies in Extra-senlory Perception: 1. An Analysis of 25,ODO Tri2ls; and 11. An Analysis Of 2 Second S@ries of 25,ODO Trials!' Journal of Parapsychology 2,1938, pp. 23-30; 287-295. 36. Mcchl, P. E., and M. Scriven. "Comp2tibility of Scicn@,c and ESP." Jk-ience 123. 1956. pp. 14-15. 37. Murphy, G. "On Limits of Recording Errors." In (1). pp 1262-266. 38. Murphy. G., and E. Taves. "Covaiiancc Nfcthods in I Comparison of Extra-siensory Tasks." Journal of Parapsychology 3. 1939. pp. 38-78. 39. Oram. A. T. "An Experiment with Random Numbcv@,s." journal of the Society for Psychical Research 37, 1954, pp. 369-377. 40. Or2m, A. T. Correspondence. journal of the Society fqr Psychical Research 38, 1955. pp. 143-144. 114 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 CPYRGHT Parantormal Commsmicagion / "Error 41. Pratt, J. G. "Clairvoyant Blind Matching." journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp. 10-17: and "The Work of Dr. C. Hilion Rice in Extra-scn%ory Perception, pp. 239- 259. 42. Pratt, 1. G., and M. Price. "The Experimenter-subject Relationship in Tests for ESP." Journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938, pp. 84-94. 43. Pratt. J. G., 1. B. Rhine, B. M. Smith, C. E. Stuart, and J. A. Greenwood. Extrasensory Perception After Sixty Years. Boston: Bruce Humphries. 1966. (Originally published in 1940 by Henry Holt, New York.) 44. Pratt, J. G.. and J. L. Woodruff. "Size of Stimulus Symbols In Extra-menSOTY PeTCCP- tion." Journal of Parapsychology 3,1939, pp. 121-158. 45. Price, M. "A Comparison of Blind and Seeing Subjects in ESP Tests." Journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938, pp. 273-286. 46. Price, M., and M. PegTam. "Extrasensory Perception Among the Blind." journal of Parapsychology 1, 1937, pp. 143-155. 47. Price, G. R. "Science and the Supernatural,' Science 122. M55, pp. 359-367. 48. Price, G. R. "Where is the Definitive Experiment?" Science 123. 1956, pp. 17-18. 49. Price, G. R. "Apology to Rhine and Soal." Science 175, 1972, pp. 359. 50. Rhine. J. B. Extra-sensory Perception. Boston: Bruce Humphries, 1%.4. (Originally published in 1934.) 51. Rhine, J. B. "Telepathy and Clairvoyance in the Normal and Trance States of a Medium." Character and Personalit 'y 3. 1934. pp. 91 -111. 52. Rhine, J. B. "Some Selected Experiments in Extra-sensory Perception." journal of Abnormal andSorial Psychology 31, 1936, pp. 216-228. 53. Rhine, J. B. "The Question of Sensory Cues and the Evidence." journal of Para- psychology 1, 1937, pp. 276-291. 54. Rhine. 1. B. "ESP Tests With Enclosed Cards." Journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938, pp. 199-216. 55. Rhine, J. B. "Comments on 'Science and the Supernatural."' Science 123, 1956, pp. 11-14. 56. RhineJ. B. 'The Experiment Should Fit the Hypothesis." Scienre 123, 1956. p. 19. 57. Rhine, B. Comments. journal of Parapsychology, 1974, p. 38. 58. Rhine, B., and J. G. Pratt. "A Review of the Pearce-Pratt Distance Series of ESP Tests." journal of Parapsychology, 18, 1954, pp. 165-177. 59. Rhine, J. B., B. M. Smith, and j. L. Woodruff. "Experiments Bearing on the Pre- cognition Hypothesis: 11. The Role of ESP in the Shuffling of Cards." journal of Parapsychology 2. 1938. pp. 119-131. 60. Riess, B. F. "A Case of High Scores in Card Guessing at a Distance." journal of Parapsychology 1. 1937. pp. 260-263. 61. Shulman, R. "A Study of Card-guessing in Psychotic Subjects." Journal of Parapsy- chology 2. 1938. pp. 96-107. 62. Sinclair, U. Mental Radio, with a Preface b@. Albert Einstein. Springfield, Ill.: Charles C. Thomas, 1962. (Originally published in 1030.) 63. Shapiro, A. "Review of ESP-A Scientific Evaluation by C. E. M. Hansel." International journal of Clinical and Experimental Hypnosis 16,1968, pp. 133-134. 64. Scott, C. "G. Spencer Brown and Probability: A Critique." journal of the Society for Psychical Research 39, 1958, pp. 217-234. 65. Soal, S. G. "On 'Science and the Supernatural.' " Science 123, 1956, pp. 9-11. 66. Soal. S. G, and F. Bateman. Modem Experiments in Telepathy. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1954. 67. S021, S. G., and H. T. Bowden. The Mind Readers: Recent Experiments in Telepathy. New Haven, Conn.: Yale Univenity Press, 1954. 68. Spencer Brown, G. "Statistical Significance in Psychical Research." Nature 172, 1953, pp. 154-156. 69. Spencer Brown, G. Probability and Scientific Inference. New York: Longmans, Green, 1957. 70. Sterling, T. C. "Publication Decisions and Their Possible Effects of Inference Drawn Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Place!" 115 Ap p rTp@ga@ffe I ease 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Journal of Communication, Winter 1975 from Tests of Significancc-Or Vice Versa." journal, of the American Statistical As- sociation 54, 1959, pp. 30-34. 7J. Stuart, C. E. ".The Effect of Rate of Movement in Card Matching Tests of Extra- sensory Perception." journal of Parapsychology 2, 193@1 pp. 171-183. 72. Stuart, C. E. "A Review of. Certain Proposed Hypotheses Alternative to Extra-sensory Perception." Journal of Abnormal and Social Psych@ Ilogy 33, 1938, pp. 57-70. 73. Stuart, C. E., and J. A. Greenwood. "A Review of iCriticisms of the Mathematical Evaluation of ESP Data." Journal of Parapsychology 110 1937. pp. 295-304. 74. Time, April 29, 1974. 75. Tyrrell, G. N. M. "Some Experiments in Undifferentiated Extra-sensory Perception." journal of the Society for Psychical Research 29, 1935.1 pp. 52-M. 76. Warner, L. "The Role of Luck in ESP Data." journaf of Parapsychology 1. 1937, pp. 84-92. 77. Warner. L. "A Test Case." journal of Parapsychol 1. 1937. pp. 234-238. 78. Willoughby, R. "Critical Comment: The Use of t'hovProbable Error in Evaluating Clairvoyasice." Character and Personality 4. 1935. pp. 0_80. 79. Willoughby, R. "A Critique of Rhine's 'Extra-sensort Perception."' Journal of Ab. normal and Social Psychology 30,1935, pp. 199-207. 80. Willoughby, R. Critical comments in (43), pp. 220-221. 81. Wolins, L. "Needed: Publication of Negative Results." IAmerican Psychologist 14, 1959, P. 598. 82. Wolfle, D. L. "A Review of the Work on Extra-sensoq, Peweption." American journal of Psychiatry, 1938, pp. 943-955. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 PRC>CEEDINcApprovedEFWLRteleas.e24WO8lO8: CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 329 10 A, Perceptual Channel for Information Transfer over Kilometer Distances:. Historical Perspective and Recent Research HAROLD E. PUTHOFF, MEMBER, IEEE, AND RUSSELL TARG, SENIOR MEMBER, IEEE CPYRGHT Abstract-For more than 100 years, scientists have attempted to determine the truth or falsity of claims for the existence of a perceptual channel whereby certain individuals are able to perceive and describe remote data not presented to any known sense. This paper presents an outline of' the history of scientific inquiry into such so-called paranor- mal perception and surveys the current state of the art in parapsycho- logical research in the United States and abroad. The nature of this perceptual channel is examined in a series of experiments carried out in the Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of Stanford Research Institute. The perceptual modality most extensively investigated is the ability of both experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteers to view, by innate mental processes, remote geographical or technical targets including buildings, roads, and laboratory apparatus. The ac- cumulated data indicate that the phenomenon is not a sensitive func- tion of distance, and Faraday cage shielding does not in any apparent way degrade the quality and accuracy of perception. On the basis of this research, some areas of physics are suggested from which a descrip- tion or explanation of the phenomenon could be forthcoming. CPYRGHT "IT IS THE PROVINCE of natural science to investigate nature, impartially and without prejudice" [11. Nowhere in scientific inquiry has this dictum met as great a chal- lenge as in the area of so-called extrasensory perception (ESP), the detection of remote stimuli not mediated by the usual sensory processes. Such phenomena, although under scientific consideration for over a century, have historically been fraught with unrefiability and controversy, and validation of the phe- nomena by accepted scientific methodology has been slow in coming. Even so, a recent survey conducted by the British publication Xew Scientist revealed that 67 percent of nearly 1500 responding readers (the majority of whom are working scientists and technologists) considered ESP to be an estab- lished fact or a likely possibility, and 88 percent held the investigation of ESP to be a legitimate scientific undertaking (2]. A review of the literature reveals that although experiments by reputable researchers yielding positive restilts were begun over a century ago (e.g., Sir William Crookes' study of D. D. Home, 1860's) [31, many consider the study of these phe- nomena as only recently emerging from the realm of quasi- science. One reason for this is that, despite experimental results, no satisfactory theoretical construct had been advanced to correlate data or to predict new experimental outcomes. Consequently, the area in question remained for a long time in the recipe stage reminiscent of electrodynamics before the Manuscript received July 25, 1975; revised November 7, 105. The submission of this paper was encouraged after review of an advance proposal. This work was supported by the Foundation for Parasensory Investigation and the Parapsychology Foundation, New York, NY; the institute of Noetic Sciences, Palo Alto, CA; and the National Aero- nautics and Spaff The authors Ire Qcfl0VVa1##4- AlrdMORNIAV Stanford Research institute, Menlo Park, CA 94025. unification brought about by the work of Ampere, Faraday, and Maxwell. Since the early work, however, we have seen the development of information theory, quantum theory, and neuro physiological research, and these disciplines provide powerful conceptual tools that appear to bear directly on the issue. In fact, several physicists (Section V) are now of the opinion that these phenomena are nof at all inconsistent with the framework of modern physics: the often-held view that observations of this type are a priori incompatible with known laws is erroneous in that such a concept is based on the naive realism prevalent before the development of quantum theory. In the emerging view, it is accepted that research in this area can be conducted so as to uncover not just a catalog of inter- esting events, but rather patterns of cause-effect relationships of the type that lend themselves to analysis and hypothesis in the forms with which we are familiar in the physical conditions of sensory shielding is mediated by extremely low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic waves, a proposal that does -not seem to be ruled out by any obvious physical or `-biological facts. Further, the development of information theory makes it possible to characterize and quantify the performance of a communications channel regardless of the underlying mechanism. For the past three years, we have had a program in the Electronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of the Stan- ford Research Institute (SRI) to investigate those facets of human perception that appear to fall outside the range of well- understood perceptuallprocessing capabilities. Of particular interest is a human information -accessing capability that we call "remote viewing." This phenomenon pertains to the ability of certain individuals to access and describe, by means of mental processes, information sources blocked from ordi- nary perception, and generally accepted as secure against such access. In particular, the phenomenon we have investigated most extensively is the ability of a subject to view remote geograph- ical locations up to several thousand kilometers distant from his physical location (given only a known person on whom to target).' We have carried out more than fifty experiments under controlled laboratory conditions with several individuals who'se remote perceptual abilities have been developed suf- ficiently to allow them at times to describe correctly-often in great detail-geographical or technical material such as build- ings, roads, laboratory apparatus, and the like. As observed in the laboratory, the basic phenomenon appears to cover a range of subjective experiences variously referred to C I&R-PRPIQ 9,79,9 9 OAS [41, and re- printed in the IEEE Commun. Soc. Newsletter, vol. 13, Jan. 1975. 330 CPYERGH.T 14E IEEE, MARCH I I97E Aivroved For Kelease 2000/08/08 C1A-RDP96-00789R0fffbVf"PM Fig. I. Airport in San Andres, Colombia, used as remote-viewing target, along w@th sketch produced by subject in California. i in the literature as autoscopy (in the medical literature); exteri- orization or disassociation (psychological literature); simple clairvoyance, traveling clairvoyance, or out-of-body experience (parapsychological literature); or astral projection (occult liter- ature). We choose the term "remote viewing" as a neutral descriptive term free from prior associations and bias as to mechanisms. The development at SRI of a successful experimental pro- cedure to elicit this capability has evolved to the point where persons such as visiting government scientists and contract monitors, with no previous exposure to such concepts, have learned to perform well; and subjects who have trained over a one-year period have performed excellently under a variety of experimental conditions. Our accumulated data thus indicate that both specially selected and unselected persons can be assisted in developing remote perceptual abilities up to a level of useful information transfer. In experiments of this type, we have three principal findings. First, we have established that it is possible to obtain signifi- cant amounts of accurate descriptive information about remote locations. Second, an increase in the distance from a few meters up to 4000 km separating the subject from the scene to be perceived does not in any apparent way degrade the quality or accuracy of perception. Finallyi the use of Faraday cage electrical shielding does not prevent high-quality descrip- tions from being obtained. To build a coherent theory for the explanation of these phenomena, it is necessary to have a clear understanding of what constitutes the phenomena. In this paper, we first briefly summarize previous efforts in this field 1 See tA edffiar FAIRaMiNhuplefrioll' present APPWM than fifty eXpprime@ts with nine subjects Carried out in our own laborator*Y" whi!ch represent a sufficiently stable data base to permit testing of various hypotheses concerning the func- tioning of this cha -@nel. Finally, in Section V, we indicate those areas of physips and information theory that appear to be relevant to an 6derstanding of certain aspects of the phenomena. First, however, we'present an illustrative example generated eriment. A in an early pilot ex 0 s will be clear from our later discussion, this is not a "best-ever" example, but rather a typical sample of thi4 'level of proficiency that can be reached and that we have cor@e to expect in our research. Three subjects pa@ticipated in a long-distance experiment focusing on a series !of targets in Costa Rica. These subjects said they had never been to Costa Rica. In this experiment, one of the experimen@ers (Dr. Puthoff) spent ten daystraveling through Costa Rica 'on a combination businesstpleasure trip. This information wasi all that was known to the subjects about the traveler's itinerar@. The experiment called for Dr. Puthoff to keep a detailed re @ord of his location and activities, includ ing photographs of each of seven target days at 1330 PDT. A total of twelve daill, descriptions were collected before the ly traveler's return: sixl'responses from one subject, five from another, and one fro@ a third. The third subject who submitted the single response supplied a drawing for a day iih the middle of the series. (The subject's response, together with the photographs taken at the site, are shown in Fig. 1). kithough Costa Rica is a mountainous country, the subject unexpectedly perceived the traveler at a k. he described an n 09FM J 010 t 901 Wa "hy etRan@an airstnp with the ocean at the PUtHOFF A*W&ddRFUFR-bWdgtIE2(YOO/JlYgfW~TGrATRMPSS-OO789ROO31 0CQ12bM4T 331 end (correct). An airport building also was drawn, and shown to have a large rectangular overhang (correct). The traveler had taken an unplanned one-day side trip to an offshore island and at the time of the experiment had just disembarked from a plane at a small island airport as described by the subject 4000 kin away. The sole discrepancy was that the subject's drawing showed a Quonset-hut type of building in place of the rectangular structure. The above description was chosen as an example to illustrate a major point observed a number of times throughout the program to be described. Contrary to what may be expected, a subject's description does not necessarily portray what may reasonably be expected to be correct (an educated or "safe" guess), but often runs counter even to the subject's own expectations. We wish to stress again that a result such as the above is not unusual. The remaining submissions in this experiment pro- vided further examples of excellent correspondences between target and response. (A target period of poolside relaxation was identified; a drive through a tropical forest at the base of a truncated volcano was described as a drive through a jungle below a large bare table mountain; a hotel-room target descrip- tion, including such details as rug color, was correct; and so on.) So as to determine whether such matches were simply fort uitous- that is, could reasonably be expected on the basis of chance alone-Dr. Puthoff was asked after he had-returned to blind match the twelve descriptions to his seven target locations. On the basis of this conservative evaluation proce- dure, which vastly underestimates the statistical significance of the individual descriptions, five correct matches were ob- tained. his number of matches is significant at p = 0.02 by exact binomial calculation.2 The observation of such unexpectedly high-quality descrip- tions early in our program led to a large-scale study of the phenomenon at SRI under secure double-blind conditions (i.e., target unknown to experimenters as well as subjects), with independent random target selection and blind judging. The results, presented in Sections III and IV, provide strong evi- dence for the robustness of this phenomenon whereby a human perceptual modality of extreme sensitivity can detect complex remote stimuli. It. BACKGROUND Although we are approaching the study of these phenomena as physicists, it is not yet possible to separate ourselves entirely from the language of the nineteenth century when the labora- tory study of the paranormal was begun. C6nsequently, we continue to use terms such as "paranormal," "telepathy," and the like. However, we intend only to indicate a process of information transfer under conditions generally accepted as secure against such transfer and with no prejudice or occult assumptions as to the mechanisms involved. As in any other scientific pursuit, the purpose is to collect the observables that result from experiments and to try to determine the functional relationships between these observables and the laws of physics as they are currently understood. 2The probability of a correct daily match by chance for any given 3nscript is p = -L. Therefore, the probability of at least rive correct 7 atches by chance out of twelve tries can be calculated from 12 121 1./,102-0 Teleas&2000/08/08 P ATIM "2- 1 ( @7 7 i--s i Organized research into so-called psychic functioning began roughly in the time of J. J. Thomson, Sir Oliver Lodge, and Sir William Crookes, all of whom took part in the founding of the Society for Psychical Research (SPR) in 1882 in England. Crookes, for example, carried out his principal investigations with D. D. Home, a Scotsman who grew up in America and returned to England in 1855 [3]. According to the notebooks and published reports of Crookes, Home had demonstrated the ability to cause objects to move without touching them. We should note in passing that, Home, unlike most subjects, worked only in the light and spoke out in the strongest pos- sible terms against the darkened seance rooms popular at the time [ 5 1. Sir William Crookes was a pioneer in the study of electrical discharge in gases and in the development of vacuum tubes, some types of which still bear his name. Although everything Crookes said about electron beams and plasmas was accepted, nothing he said about the achievements of D. D. Home ever achieved that status. Many of his colleagues, who had not obs erved the experiments with Home, stated publicly that they thought Crookes had been deceived, to which Crookes angrily responded: Will not my critics give me credit for some amount of common sense? Do they not imagine that the obvious precautions, which occux to them as soon as they sit down to pick holes in my experiments, have occimed to me also in the course of my pro- longed and patient investigation? The answer to this, as to all other objections is, prove it to be an error, by showing where the error Res, or if a trick, by showing how the trick is per- formed. Try the experiment fully and fairly. If then fraud be found, expose it; if it be a truth, proclaim it. This is the only scientific procedure, and it is that I propose steadily to pursue (3). In the United States, scientific interest in the paranormal was centered in the universities. In 1912, John Coover [61 was established in the endowed Chair of Psychical Research at Stanford University. In the 1920's, Harvard University set up research programs with George Estabrooks and L. T. Troland [71,, [8]. It was'in this framework that, in 1930, William McDougall invited Dr. 1. B. Rhine and Dr. Louisa Rhine to join the Psychology Department at Duke University [9]. For more than 30 years, significant work was carried out at Rhine's Duke University Laboratory. To examine the existence of paranormal perception, he used the now-famous ESP cards containing a boldly printed picture of a star, cross, square, circle, or wavy lines. Subjects were asked to name the order of these cards in a freshly shuffled deck of twenty-five such cards. To test for telepathy, an experimenter would look at the cards one at a time, and a subject suitably separated from the sender would attempt to determine which card was being viewed. Dr. J. B. Rhine together with Dr. J. G. Pratt carried out thousands of experiments of this type under widely varying conditions[101. The statistical results from these experiments indicated that some individuals did indeed possess a paranor- mal perceptual ability in that it was possible to obtain an arbitrarily high degree of improbability by continued testing of a gifted subject. The work of Rhine has been challenged on many grounds, however, including accusations of improper handling of statis- tics, error, and fraud. With regard to the statistics, the general consensus of statisticians today is that if fault is to be found 6MwRDRN,-QG7&2RQQ3J 0012MIAn statistical grounds [I I]. With regard to the accusations of fraud, the CPYRGHT 332 most celebrated case of criticism of Rhine's work, that of G. R. Price 112], ended 17 years after it began when the accusation of fraud was retracted by its author in an article entitled "Apology to Rhine and Soal," published in the same journal in which it was first put forward [13 1. It should also be noted that parapsychological researchers themselves re- cently exposed fraud in their own laboratory when they encountered it [ 14 1. At the end of the 1940's, Prof. S. G. Soal, an English mathe- matician working with the SPR, had carried out hundreds of card guessing experiments involving tens of thousands of calls (151. Many of these experiments were carried out over ex- tended distances. One of the most notable experiments was conducted with Mrs. Gloria Stewart between London and Antwerp. This experiment gave results whose probability of occurring by chance were less than 10-8. With the publication of Modern Experiments in Telepathy by Soal and Bateman (both of whom were statisticians), it appeared that card guess- ing experiments produced significant results, on the average? The most severe criticism of all this work, a criticism diffi- cult to defend against in principle, is that leveled by the well- known British parapsychological critic C. E. M. Hansel [ 171, who began his examination of the ESP hypothesis with the stated assumption, "In view of the a priori arguments against it we know in advance that telepathy, etc., cannot occur." Therefore, based on the "a priori unlikelihood" of ESP, Hansel's examination of the literature centered primarily on the possibility of fraud, by subjects or investigators. He reviewed in depth four experiments which he regarded as providing the best evidence of ESP: the Pearce-Pratt distance series [181; the Pratt-Woodruff [19] series, both conducted at Duke; and Soal's work with Mrs. Stewart and Basil Shackle- ton 15 1, as well as a more recent series by Soal and Bowden (20 Hansel showed, in each case, how fraud could have been committed (by the experimenters in the Pratt-Woodruff and Soal-Bateman series, or by the subjects in the Pearce-Pratt and Soal-Bowden experiments). He gave no direct evidence that fraud was committed in these experiments, but said, "If the result could have arisen through a trick, the experiment must be considered unsatisfactory proof of ESP, whether or not it is finally decided that such a trick was in fact used " [ 17, p. 18 1. As discussed by Honorton in a review of the field [211, Hansel's conclusion after 241 pages of careful scrutiny therefore was that these experiments were not "fraud-proof" and therefore in principle could not serve as conclusive proof of ESP. Even among the supporters of ESP research and its results, there remained the consistent problem that rhany successful subjects eventually lost their ability and their scores gradually drifted toward chance results. This decline effect in no way erased their previous astronomical success; but it was a disap- pointment since if paranormal perception is a natural ability, one would like to see subjects improving with practice rather than getting worse. One of the first successful attempts to overcome the decline effect was in Czechoslovakia in the work of Dr. Milan Ryzl, a chemist with the Institute of Biology of the Czechoslovakian Academy of Science and also an amateur hypnotist [221. Through the use of hypnosis, together with feedback and reinforcement, he developed of whom, Pavel Siepanek, around the world fol T Ryzl's pioneeringii raised by the 195@ sensory perception.! meetings on topics:, that same year they chologists to have 4! The conference con@cluded in parapsychology Iresearch could be found; na@ely, menters could repeat statistically significa@t Ryz1 had by 19621 tribution was a deci,kon son, to try to build @p depended on "working jects. Ryzl's star subject, significant results wt@1th [29). In these expef Iiments, reliability whether @ side up, yielding st#tistics thousand trials. As significant as sul channel is imperfect! When considering h@ to the communirati( redundancy as a mi effects of a noisy ch RyzI using such tech had an assistant seli each. These 15 digiti translated into a seq envelopes. By mea; majority vote PTOtO( Stepanek (averaging numbers, a result sil individual calls was 6 [31). Note Added in Pro that a similar proced, error the word "pe@ Carpenter, "Toward weak-signal ESP effe the American Assoc New York, NY, Jan. The characteristics accordance with the bit rate associated w from (301 where H(x) is the uni symbols with a priori and Hy(x) is the con probabilities that a re 311ecently, some of the early Soal experiments have been criticized 16 1. However, his long-distance experiments cited here were judged in a double-blind fashion of the kpi that esVd6, crit' * f 080 ? d#T1rA%-RDP96-0 early ex*ppmved For I e ease 1 IEEE, MARCH 1976 several outstanding subjects, ont has worked with experimenter! more than 10 years. work came as an answer to the question.; CIBA Foundation conference on extra The CIBA Chemical Company has annua of biological and chemical interest, and assembled several prominent parapsy state-of-the-art conference on ESP [23). that little progress would be made until a repeatable experiment an experiment that different experi at will and that would reliably yield a result. accomplished that goal. His primary con to interact with the subject as a per his confidence and ability. His protocol with" rather than "running" his sub Pavel Stepanek, has produced highly many contemporary researchers (241 he was able to tell with 60-percent hidden card was green side or white of a million to one with only a @h results are statistically, the information containing noise along with the signal. w best to use such a channel, one is led n theory concept of the introduction of ans of coding a message to combat the innel [30]. A prototype experiment by iiques has proved to be successful. Ryzi ct randomly five groups of three digits were then encoded into binary form and aence of green and white cards in sealed is of repeated calling and an elaborate DI, Ryzl was able after 19 350 calls by ) s per call) to correctly identify all IS nificant at p = 10- 1 S The hit rate for 1.9 percent, 11 978 hits, and 73 72 misses )f- It has been brought to our attention re was recently used to transmit without ce" in International Morse Code (J. C. the effective utilization of enhanced ts," presented at the Annual Meeting of ation for the Advancement of Science, 7, 1975). of such a channel can be specified in 3recepts of communication theory. The th the information channel is calculated R = H(x) - Hy(x) ,rtainty of the source message containing probability pi: 2 X) PJ 1092 Pi (2) tional entropy based on the a posteriori dved signal was actually transmitted: 2 (3) u"6qiWU_P1U). 0 1 1 4 CPYRGHT PUTHOFF AKD%T%A"kePAFCFiWWN&la"&"ElrwmtwaWAM~kTD*WBUA-nn7QODnn,24 nn4,)nnn4 -A I , py 0.619, and an average Similar behavior modification types For Stepanek's run, with pi = I of experiments have been time of 9 s per choice, we have a sourcecarried out in recent times by 1. M. uncertainty H(x) = I Kogan, Chairman of the bit and a calculated bit rate Bloinformation Section of the Moscow Board of the Popov Society. He is a Soviet engineer who, until 1969, published R - 0.041 bit/symbol extensively on the theory of telepathic communication [371- or [40 1. He was concerned with three principal kinds of experi- RIT- 0.0046 bit/s. ments: mental suggestion without hypnosis over short dis- (Since the 15-digit number (49.8 bits)tances, in which the percipient attempts actually was transmitted to identify an object; at the rate of 2.9 X 10-4 bit/s, an mental awakening over short distances, increase in bit rate by a in which a subject is factor of about 20 could be expected awakened from a hypnotic sleep at the on the basis of a coding "beamed" suggestion scheme more optimum than that used from the hypnotist; and long-range (intercity) in the experiments. See, telepathic com- for example, Appendix A.) munication. Kogan's main interest has been to quantify the Dr. 'Charles Tart at the University channel capacity of the paranormal channel. of California has written He finds that the extensively on the so-called decline bit rate decreases from 0.1 bit/s for effect. He considers that laboratory experiments having subjects attempt to guess cards,to. 0.005 bit/s for his 1000-km intercity or perform any other experiments. repetitious task for which they receivein the USSR, serious consideration is no feedback, follows given to the hypothesis the classical technique for deconditioningthat telepathy is mediated by extremely any response. He low-frequency (ELF) thus considers card guessing "a techniqueelectromagnetic propagation. (The pros for extinguishing and cons of this psychic functioning in the laboratory"hypothesis are discussed in Section [32 1. V of this paper.) In Tart's injunctions of the mid-sixties general, the entire field of paranormal were being heeded at research in the USSR Maimonides Hospital, Brooklyn, NY, is part of a larger one concerned with by a team of researchers the interaction between that included Dr. Montague Ullman, electromagnetic fields and living organisms who was director of [41], [421. At research for the hospital; Dr. Stanleythe First International Congress on Krippner; and, later, Parapsychology and Charles Honorton. These three worked Psychotronics in Prague, Czechoslovakia, together for several in 1973, for example, years on experiments on the occurrenceKholodov spoke at length about the susceptibility of telepathy in dreams. of living In the course of a half-dozen experimentalsystems to extremely low-level ac and series, they found dc fields. He described in their week-long sessions a number conditioning effects on the behavior of subjects who had of fish resulting from the dreams that consistently were highly application of 10 to 100 ;AW of RF to descriptive of pictorial their tank [431. The material that a remote sender was lookingUSSR take these data seriously in that at throughout the the Soviet safety re- night. This work is described in detailquirements for steady-state microwave in the experimenters' exposure set limits book I)ream Telepathy [33]. Honorton at: 10 AW/cm 2, whereas the United States is continuing work has set a steady-state of this free-response type in which limit of 10 mW/cm 2 [44]. Kholodov spoke the subject has no precon- also about the ceived idea as to what the target may nonthermal effects of microwaves on be. animals' central nervous In his more recent. work with subjectssystems. His experiments were very carefully in the waking state, carried out and Honorton is providing homogeneous stimulationare characteristic of a new dimension to the subject in paranormal research. who is to describe color slides viewedThe increasing importance of this area by another person in a in Soviet research was remote room. In this new work, the indicated recently when the Soviet Psychological subject listens to white Association noise via earphones and views an homogeneousissued an unprecedented position paper visual field calling on the Soviet imposed through the use of Ping-Pong Academy of Sciences to step up efforts ball halves to cover the in this area [451. subject's eyes in conjunction with They recommended that the newly formed diffuse ambient illumina- Psychological tion. In this so-called Ganzfeld setting,Institute within the Soviet Academy subjects are again able, of Sciences and the now in the waking state, to give correctPsychological Institute of the Academy and often highly of Pedagogical Sciences accurate descriptions of the material review the area and consider the creation being viewed by the of a new laboratory sender [341. within one of the institutes to study persons with unusual In Honorton's work and elsewhere, it abilities. They also recommended a comprehensive apparently has been evaluation the step away from the repetitive forced-choiceof experiments and theory by the Academy experiment of Sciences' Insti- that has opened the way for a wide tute of Biophysics and Institute for variety of ordinary people the Problems of Informa- to demonstrate significant functioningtiqn Transmission. in the la'boratory, with- out being bored into a decline effect.The Soviet research, along with other behavioristically This survey would be incomplete if oriented work, suggests that in addition we did not indicate to obtaining overt certain aspects of the current state responses such as verbalizations or of research in the USSR. key presses from a subject, It is clear from translated documents it should be possible to obtain objective and other sources [351 evidence of informa- that many laboratories in the USSR tion transfer by direct measurement are engaged in paranormal of physiological parame- research. ters of a subject. Kamiya, Lindsley, Pribram, Silverman, Since the 1930's, in the laboratory Walter, and others brought together of L. Vasiliev (Leningrad to discuss physiological Institute for Brain Research), there methods to detect ESP functioning, have has been an interest in the suggested that a use of telepathy as a method of influencingwhole range of electroencephalogram the behavior of a (EEG) responses such as person at a distance. In Vasiliev's evoked potentials (EP's), spontaneous book Experiments in Mental EEG, and the contingent Suggestion, he makes it very clear negative variation (CNV) might be sensitive that the bulk of his labora- indicators of the tory's experiments were aimed at long-distancedetection of' remote stimuli not mediated communica- by usual sensory tion combined with a form of behavior processes [461. modification; for example, Pu tinpOeoqkdaObPifW6 I e_XD er curied out by A ges 260M) h15 In his P 0 ineerin nosis JZ10J. g. g 334Approv&PFy9tqdTease 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789 E IEEE, MARCH 191, search for Physiological correlates of information transfir, he used the plethysmograph to measure changes in the blood C volume in a finger, a sensitive indicator of autonomic nervous system functioning [47]. A plethysmographic measurement was made on the finger of a subject during telepathy experi- ments. A sender looked at randomly selected target cards M consisting of names known to the subject, together with names unknown to him (selected at random from a telephone book). The names of the known people were contributed by the sub- Q ject and to be of emotional significance to him. Dean were found significant changes in the chart0 recording of finge r blood volume when the remote sender > was looking at those names known to the subject as compared with those names randomly chosen. Three other experiments using the physiologicalFig. approach 2. Occipital EE have now been published. The first acting work by Tart [481 , a later as receiver sl function of strobe work by Lloyd [491, and most recently (twelve the work by the trial ayerag authors [41 all follow a similar procedure. Basically, a subject is closeted in an electrically shieldedresults room while his EEG is were prod recorded. Meanwhile, in another laboratory,pickup a second person (ENIII), or @ is stimulated from time to time, and As the time of that stimulus part of the e is marked on the magnetic-tape recordingto of the subject's EEG. indicate a cons, The subject does not know when the key) remote stimulus periods as to the na are as compared with the nonstimulus guesses periods. to be at cl With regard to choice of stimulus for cant our own experimenta- alpha blockin tion, we noted that in previous work physiological others had attempted, resp( without success, to detect evoked potentialphysiological changes in a sub- (EE( ject's EEG in response to a single even stroboscopic flash stimulus in the absenc( observed by another subject [50). In Whereas a discussion of that in our c experiment, Kamiya suggested that becausestimulus, of the unknown Tart 141 temporal characteristics of the informationhimself channel, it might as sender, be more appropriate to use repetitive think bursts of fight to increase of a red ti the probability of detecting informationilluminated transfer [511. There- withir fore, in our study we chose to use evoked a stroboscopic flash train of poteritial j 10-s duration as the remote stimulus. and in Tart's, a r( In the design of the study, we assumedtion that the application of alpha was of the remote stimulus would result is in responses similar to resting in an @ those obtained under conditions of stimulated, direct stimulation. For for em example, when an individual is stimulateda with a low- desynchronizati( frequency K 30 Hz) flashing light, sider the EEG typically shows that these col: a decrease in the amplitude of the of resting rhythm and a noncognitive av driving of the brain waves at the frequencyhave of the flashes [52 1. a profound in We hypothesized that if we stimulated one subject in this III. manner (a putative sender), the EEG SRI of another subject in a INV remote room with no flash present (a Experimentation receiver) might show changes in alpha (9-11 Hz) activity carried and possibly an EEG out to inv( driving similar to that of the sender,Ingo or other.coupling to the Swann, when sender's EEG [531. The receiver was gained seated in a visually during expe opaque, acoustically and electrically (verified shielded, double-walled in other i steel room about 7 m from the sender. to The details of the view remote Ic experiment, consisting of seven runs tion, of thirty-six 10-s trials a pilot study each (twelve periods each for 0-Hz, around 6-Hz, and 16-Hz stimuli, the globe randomly intermixed), are presented perimenters in 141. This experiment on a proved to be successful. The receiver'sability alpha activity (9-11 Hz) to descrit showed a significant reduction in averagebridges, power (-24 percent, and the I p < 0.04) and peak power (-28 percent,a p < 0.03) during subject by mean 16-Hz flash stimuli as compared with randomly periods of no-flash chosen stimulus. (A similar response was observedfrom for 6-Hz stimuli the subject's (-12 percent in average power, -21 priate percent in peak power), means. Th but the latter result did not reach test statistical significance.] the remote-vi, Fig. 2 shows an overlay of three averagedscientific EEG spectra from condition one o[ the subjecto's 6 tsial runs iiMbdif , 8-RdP9ffT-UW'0'AF cP v &Nx` e consiZiered sJ to t 9e alpha MR6qMgg W o G control procedures were under-taken unambiguous to determine if thm cond 16 ;5 Hz 10 Hz 15 Hz frequency spectra, 0-20 Hz, of one subject (H.H owing amplitude changes in the 9-1 I-Hz band as frequency. Three cases: 0-, 6-, and 16-Hz flash, aced by system artifacts, electromagneti ubtle cueing; the results were negative [41 @perimental protocol, the subject was aske ious assessment for each trial (via telegrap ure of the stimulus; analysis showed thes ance. Thus arousal as evidenced by signif , occurred only at the noncognitive level o nse. Hence the experiment provided direc ) evidence of perception of remote stimul of overt cognitive response. Kperiments we used a remote light flash as 1 in his work used an electrical shock t4 and Lloyd [491 simply told the sender t( angle each time a red warning light wa his view. Lloyd observed a consisten i his subjects; whereas in our experiment Juction in amplitude and a desynchroniza observed-an arousal response. (if a subjec lpha-dominant condition and he is ther mple in any direct manner, one will observ( n and decrease in alpha power.) We con ibined results are evidence for the existena areness of remote happenings and that the3 plication for paranormal research. STIGATIONS OF REMOTE VIEWING in remote viewing began during studies tigate the abilities of a New York artist, he expressed the opinion that the insights hents at SRI had strengthened his ability search before he joined the SRI program) ations [S41, To test Mr. Swann's asser- vas set up in which a series of targets from ere supplied by SRI personnel to the ex- ouble-blind. basis. Mr. Swann's apparent correctly details of buildings, roads, e indicated that it may be possible for of mental imagery to access and describe geographical sites located several miles position and demarcated by some appro- refore, we set up a research program to @Ving hypothesis under rigidly controlled wwwamt catrated on what we Vit F ni it s, icip, responsi ility-to resolve under the basic issue of whether or not this PUTHC)FF,6APPOOVediftrrReleasv2lOOWO8fO&riACIA-lRDPWO0789FR)WM(MI'ROO01 -4 335 class of paranormal perception phenomenon exists. At all times, we and others responsible for the overall program took measures to prevent sensory leakage and subliminal cueing and to prevent deception, whether intentional or unintentional. To ensure evaluations independent of belief structures of both experimenters and judges, all experiments were carried out under a protocol, described below, in which target selection at the beginning of experiments and blind judging of results at the end of experiments were handled independently of the researchers engaged in carrying out the experiments. Six subjects, designated SI through S6, were chosen for the study. Three were considered as gifted or experienced subjects (S I through S3), and three were considered as learners (S4 through S6). The a priori dichotomy between gifted and learners was based on the experienced group having been successful in other studies conducted before this program and the learners group being inexperienced with regard to paranormal experimentation. The study consisted of a series of double-blind tests with local targets in the San Francisco Bay Area so that several in- dependent judges could visit the sites to establish documenta- tion. The protocol was to closet the subject with an experi- menter at SRI and at an agreed-on time to obtain from the subject a description of an undisclosed remote site be' lng visited by a target team. In each of the experiments, one of the six. program subjects served as remote-viewing subject, and SRI experimenters served as a target demarcation team at the remote location chosen in a double-blind protocol as follows. In each experiment, SRI management randomly chose a target location from a list of targets within a 30-min driving time from SRI; the target location selected was kept blind to subject and experim enters. The target pool consisted of more than 100 target locations chosen from a target-rich environ- ment. (Before the experimental series began, the Director of the Information Science and Engineering Division, not other- wise associated with the experiment, established the set of lo- cations as the target pool which remained known only to him. The target locations were printed on cards sealed in envelopes and kept in the SRI Division office safe. They were available only with the personal assistance of the Division Director who issued a single random-number selected target card that con- stituted the traveling orders for that experiment.) In detail: To begin the experiment, the subject was closeted with an experimenter at SRI to wait 30 min before beginning a narrative description of the remote location. A second ex- perimenter then obtained from the Division Director a target location from a set of traveling orders previously prepared and randomized by the Director and kept under his control. The target demarcation team, consisting-of two to four SRI experi- menters, then proceeded by automobile directly to the target without any communication with the subject or experimenter remaining behind. The experimenter remaining with the sub- ject at SRI was kept ignorant of both the particular target and the target pool so as to eliminate the possibility of cueing (overt or subliminal) and to allow him freedom in questioning the subject to clarify his descriptions. The demarcation team remained at the target site for an agreed-on 15-min period following the 30 min allotted for travel.4 During the observa- The first b- t (Si) ;A ap3wed_30 in for his des it was found d S4,1c4rev dDra S rgaS0,200MMMul &t min. The viewihg time was therefore reduced to 15 min for subjects S2 through S6. tion period, the remote-viewing subject was asked to describe his impressions of the target site into a tape recorder and to make any drawings he thought appropriate. An informal com- parison was then made when the demarcation team returned, and the subject was taken to the site to provide feedback. A. Subject SI: Experienced To begin the series, Pat Price, a former California police com- missioner and city councilman, participated as a subject in nine experiments. In general, Price's ability to describe correctly buildings, docks, roads, gardens, and the like, includ- ing structural materials, color, ambience, and activity-often in great detail -indicated the functioning of a remote per- ceptual ability. A Hoover Tower target, for example, was recognized and named by name. Nonetheless, in general, the descriptions contained inaccuracies as well as correct state- ments. A typical example is indicated by the subject's drawing shown in Fig. 3 in which he correctly described a park-like area containing two pools of water: one rectangular, 60 by 89 ft (actual dimensions 75 by 100 ft); the other circular, diameter 120 ft (actual diameter 110 ft). He incorrectly indi- cated the function, however, as water filtration rather than recreational swimming. (We often observe essentially correct descriptions of basic elements and patterns coupled with in- complete or erroneous analysis of function.) As can be seen from his drawing, he also included some elements, such as the tanks shown in the upper right, that are not present at the target site. We also note an apparent left-right reversal, often observed in paranormal perception experiments. To obtain a numerical evaluation of the accuracy of the remote-viewing experiment, the experimental results were subjected to independent judging on a blind basis by an SRI research analyst not otherwise associated with the research. The subject's response packets, which contained the nine typed unedited transcripts of the tape-recorded narratives along with any associated drawings, were unlabeled and pre- sented in random order. While standing at each target loca- tion, visited in turn, the judge was required to blind rank order the nine packets on a scale I to 9 (best to worst match). The statistic of interest is the sum of ranks assigned to the target- associated transcripts, lower values indicating better matches. For nine targets, the sum of ranks could range from nine to eighty-one. The probability that a given sum of ranks s or less will occur by chance is given by [551 k Pr (s or less) = - Y_ 7- (_ I)l n) (i - N1 - 1) Nn i-n 1-0 n where s is obtained sum of ranks, N is number of assignable ranks, n is number of occasions on which rankings were made, an: d I takes on values from zero to the least positive integer k in (i - n)ln. (Table I is a table to enable easy application of the above fon-nula to those cases in which N = n.) The sum in tfiis case, which included seven direct hits out of the nine, was 16 (see Table II), a result significant at p = 2.9 X 10-5 by exact calculation. In Experiments 3, 4, and 6 through 9, the subject was se- cured in a double-walled copper-screen Faraday cage. The Faraday cage provides 120-dB attenuation for plane-wave radio-frequency radiation over a range of 15 kHz to I GHz. 15 kHz and 0 ra@& CV6,M"esto -OV#MZ. k orderjudging (Table II) indicate that the use of Faraday cage electrical 336 CPYRGHTApproved For Release 2000/08/08: CIA-RDP96-00789 M-'4iE IEEE, MARCH 197 _LJ J AV E. ELE TENNIS DIST. COURTS 75 100 PLAY GROUNDS POOL SERVICE HOUSE CONCRETE YARD BLOCK FIRE STAT10M PICNIC AREA/ Jk0 @e, Fig. 3. Swimming pool complex as remote-viewing target. (a) City map of target (b) Drawing by Price (SI). TABLE I CRITICAL VALUES OF SUMS OF RANKS FOR PREFERENTIAL M, ATCHING NumberProbability of (one-tailed) i that bl the Indicated Sum of Ranks or LIrag Would occur by Chance Ass I e 0.200.100.050.040.0250.010.00S0.0020.0010.0005lor410-1IT6iT7 gna Ranks (N) 4 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 5'. 6 16 15 13 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 7 22 20 18 18 17 15 14 12 12 LI; 9 8 8 29 27 24 24 22 20 19 1.7 16 15 &J LL 9 a 9 37 34 31 30 29 26 24 22 21 20i 17 14 12 10 10 46 42 39 38 36 33 31 29 27 25 22 19 16 13 11 56 51 48 47 45 41 3B 36 34 321 2B 24 20 17 12 67 61 58 56 54 49 47 43 41 39 35 30 25 22 Note: This table applies only to those special cases in which the number ofoccasions on which objects are being ranked (n) is equal to the number of assignable ranks (N). Eachlentry represents the largest number that is significant at the indicated p-level. Source: R. L. Morris [55 ]. 11 shielding does not prevent high-quality descriptions from being obtained. As a backup judging procedure, a panel of five additional SRI scientists not otherwise associated with the research were asked simply to blind match the unedited typed transcripts (with associated drawings) generated by the remote viewer against the nine target locations which they independently visited in tum. The transcripts were unlabeled and presented in random order. A correct match consisted of a transcript of a given date being matched to the target of that date. In- stead of the expected number of I match each per judge, the number of correct matches obtained by the five judges was 7, 6, 5, 3 and 3, respeplivellk Thus# _F% t total ;WF 4 matches were obtained. B. Subject S4: Learoer This experiment I as designed to be a replication of our pre- w vious experiment with Price, the first replication attempted. The subject for thi experiment was Mrs. Hella Hammid, a gifted professional photographer. She was selected for this series on the basis @;of her successful performance as a per- cipient in the EEG iexperiment described earlier. Outside oi that interaction, she' had no previous experience with apparent paranormal function@ing. At the time we began working with Mrs. Hammid, she had no strong feelings about the likelihood of her ability to suc- ceed in this task. this was in contrast to both Ingo Swann J1t"qA6UJL4rorn a lengthy and ttg 1M t e enes of experiments with Dr. Gertrude Schmeidler at City of New York (561 and Pat Price PUTHOFF Afig, ObRf ed rF6YR'd4 @MVMWWW@ 337 0789RO034W6@MT-4 PEDESTRIAN OVERPASS TARGET Fig. 4. Subject Hammid (S4) drawing, described as "some kind of diagonal trough up in the air." TABLE 11 DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS ASSIGNED To TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR ExPERIENCED SUBJECT PRICE (SI) Rank Target Lo ation Distanceof Associated 'an" Transcript km M Hoover Tower, Stanford3.4 1 3.4 F Baylands Nature 6.4 1 Preserve Palo Alto 64 Radio telescope, 6.4 1 Portola Valley Marina, Redwood 6.8 1 City Bridge toll plaza, 14.5 6 Fremont Drive-in theater, 5.1 1 Palo Alto Arts and Crafts 1.9 1 Plaza, Menlo Park Catholic Church, 8.5 3 Portola Valley Swimming pool cmplex,3.4 1 Palo Alto Total sum of ranks 16 (p-2. 9X10-11) who felt that he used his remote-viewing ability in his every- day life. In comparison with the latter two, many people are more influenced by their environment and are reluctant under public scrutiny to attempt activities, that are generally thought to be impossible. Society often provides inhibition and nega- tive feedback to the individual who might otherwise have explored his own nonregular perceptual ability. We all share an historical tradition of "the stoning of prophets and the burning of w tion of those w claim to perceive things that the majority do not admit to seeing. Therefore, in addition to maintaining scientific rigor, one of our primary tasks as researchers is to provide an environment in which the subject feels safe to explore the possibility of paranormal perception. With a new subject, we also try to stress the nonuniqueness of the abiliry because from our experience paranormal functioning appears to be a latent ability that all subjects can articulate to some degree. Because of Mrs. Hammid's artistic background, she was ca- pable of drawing and describing visual images that she could not identify in any cognitive or analytic sense. When the target demarcation team went to a target location which was a pedestrian overpass, the subject said that she saw "a kind of trough up in the air," which she indicated in the upper part of her drawing in Fig. 4. She went on to explain, "If you stand where they are standing you will see something like this," indicating the nested squares at the bottom of Fig. 4. As it turned out, a judge standing where she indicated would have a view closely resembling what she had drawn, as can be seen from the accompanying photographs of the target loca- tion. It needs to be emphasized, however, that judges did not have access to our photographs of the site, used here for illustrative purposes only, but rather they proceeded to each of the target locations by list. In another experiment, the subject described seeing "an open barnlike structure with a pitched roof." She also saw a "kind of slatted side to the structure making light and dark bars on the wall." Her drawing and a photograph of the associated bicycle shed target are shown in Fig. S. (Subjects are encouraged to make drawings of anything they visualize CWRSP,96'aN7N*N8*QQit2entf4rawings they make are in general more accurate than theirverbal description-) As in the original series with Price, the results of the nine 338 CPYRGHT DETAIL OF BICYCLE SHED S@4 @X Y Q, Fig. 5. Subject Harnmid (S4) response to bicycle shed target described as an on the sides" and a "pitched roof." TABLE III DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGS AsSIGNFDToTRANSCRrPTs ASSOCIATED wiTH EACH TAR:GET LOCATION FOR LEARNER SUBJECT HAMMID (S4) R Target Location Distance.:nk,of A oc (km) aced Transcript Methodist Church, 1.9 1 Palo Alto 4ess Auditorium? 0.2 1 Menlo Park Merry-go-round, Palo3.4 1 Alto Parking garage, Mountain8.1 2 View SRI International 0.2 1 Courtyard, Menlo park Bicycle shed, Menlo 0.1 2 Park Railroad trestle 1.3 2 bridge, Palo Alto Pumpkin patch, Menlo1.3 1 Park Pedestrian overpass,5. 2 Palo Alto Total sum of ranks 13 cperiment series were submitted for independent judging on blind basis by an SRI research analyst not otherwise associ- :ed with the research. While at each target location, visited turn, the judge was required to blind rank order the nine ,iedited typed manuscripts of the tape-recorded narratives, ong with any associated drawings generated by the remote ewer, on a scale I to 9 (best to worst match). The sum of nks assigned to the target-associated transcripts in this case as 13, a result significant at p = 1.8 >@ 10-6 by exact calcula- )n (se KAM IWO/08/4)acl id fouNeOond ranks f(TaWble MI)feed&L Again, as a backi tional judges not were asked simply scripts and associate against the nine ta visited in turn. A a given date being stead of the expec the number of coi was 5, 3, 3, 2, and pected total numb 15 such matches we &N IEEE, MARCH 1§*? "barn-like building" with "slats judging procedure, a panel of five addi- therwise associated with the research ) blind match the unedited typed tran- drawings generated by the remote viewer, et locations wWch they independently )rrect match consisted of a transcript of latched to the target of that date.' In- d number of I match each per judge, ct matches obtained by the five judges , respectively. Thus, rather than the ex- of 5 correct matches from the judges, obtained. C. Subjects S2 and S@@: Experienced Having completed 4 series of 18 remote-viewing experiments, 9 each with experie"hced subject S I (Price) and learner S4 (Hammid), additionai replication experiments, four with each subject, were carried jout with experienced subjects S 2 (Elgin) and S 3 (Swann) and !learners S 5 and S 6. To place the judging on a basis comparabl Ie to that used with S I and S 4, the four transcripts each of e@penenced subjects S2 and S3 were com- bined into a group ol eight for rank order judging to be com- pared with the sim#ariy combined results of the learners SS and S6. The series with S2 an SRI research analyst) provided a further example of @the dichotomy between verbal and draw- ing responses. (As w4th medical literature, case histories often Theex- periment described here was the third conducted with this BICYCLE SHED TARGET PUTHOFF AAPWMVPACFE91URALe@R@M 0 99P~PN94A'TI;O~rRWFO~6-007(go~W~01 20001-4 339 Fig. 6. Subject Elgin (S2) drawings in response to tennis court target. subject, It was a demonstration experiment for a government experiments, he dictates two lists for US to record. One list visitor who had heard of our work and wanted to evaluate our contains objects that he "sees," but does not think are located experimental protocol. at the remote scene. A second list contains objects that he In the laboratory, the subject, holding a bearing compass at thinks are at the scene. In our evaluation, he has made much arm's length, began the experiment by indicating the direction progress in this most essential ability to separate memory of the target demarcation team correctly to within 5 0. (In all and imagination from paranormal inputs. This is the key to four experiments with this subject, he has always been within bringing the remote-viewing channel to fruition with regard to 100 of the correct direction in this angular assessment.) The its potential usefulness. subject then generated a 15-min tape-recorded description and The quality of transcript that can be generated by this pro the drawings shown in Fig, 6. cess is evident from the results of our most recent experiment In discussing the drawings, Elgin indicated that he was with Swann. The target location chosen by the usual double uncertain as to the action, but had the impression that the blind protocol was the Palo Alto City Hall. Swann described a demarcation team was located at a museum (known to him) tall building with vertical columns and "set in" windows. His in a particular park. In fact, the target was a tennis court lo- sketch, together with the photograph of the site, is shown in cated in that park about 90 m from the indicated museum. Fig. 7. He said there was a fountain, "but I don't hear it." Once again, we note the characteristic (discussed earlier) of a At the time the target team was at the City Hall during the resemblance between the target site and certain gestalt ele- experiment, the fountain was not running. He also made an ments of the subject's response, especially in regard to the effort to draw a replica of the designs in the pavement in front drawings, coupled with incomplete or erroneous analysis of of the building, and correctly indicated the number of trees the si@gnificances. Nonetheless, when rank ordering transcripts (four) in the sketch. I through 8 at the Site, the judge ranked this transcript as 2. For the entire series of eight, four each from S2 and S3, the This example illustrates a continuing observation that most of numerical evaluation 'based on blind rank ordering of tran- the correct information related to us by subjects is of a non. scripts at each site was significant at p = 3.8 X 10-4 and in- analytic nature pertaining to shape, form, color, and material cluded three direct hits and three second ranks for the target- rather than to function or name. associated transcripts (see Table IV). A second example from this group, generated by S3 (Swann), indicates tIA&O'Veef "pWe halog D. Subjects SJ and S6:, Learners practice. In w 1ATRr1P9§rPg1ZQ9R_09AJ 94MAQUAh were carried wo years smce we Fifs irhC rump eriez, Swann, he has been studying the problem of separating the ex- out with learner subjects S5 and S6, a man and woman on the - - -1 - - - - - - 'R --!-- T- _- -f _-* & I nrofe-ginnil qtiff The re-mIts in this case, taken as a TARGET-TENNIS COURTS 340 Approved For'R9'10@ff000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789 IEEE, MARCH 1976 TABLE IV DISTRIBUTION OF PLAN@I?Ios AssIGNED To TRANSCRIPTS AssocIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION FOR EXPERIENCED SUBJECTS ELGIN (S2) AND SWANN (S3) cvuss^ d dLUJA ot.k sst4W obA W4. 4L tkj. ut&* WA)0.4 Fig. 7. Subject Swann (S3) response to City Hall target. group, did not differ significantly from chance. For the series of eight (judged as a group of seven since one target came up twice, once for each subject), the numerical evaluation based on blind rank ordering of transcripts at each site was non- significant at p = 0.08, even though there were two direct hits and two second ranks out of the seven (see Table V). One of the direct hits, which occurred with subject S6 in her first experiment, provides an example of the "first-time effect" that has been rigorously explored and is well-known to experi- menters in the field (57]. The outbound experimenter obtained, by random protocol from the pool, a target blind to the experimenter with the subject; as is our standard pro- cedure,AftpV&Jfr 1@ ter e1R9"%% 60001/ftlo;paefA matician e comp science laboratory who had no pre- TABLE V DISTRIBUTION OF "KINGs ASSIGNED To TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET! LOCATION FOR LEARNER SUBJECTS S5 AND S6 of DistanceRank SubieccTa@ get Location Associated (km) Transcript J S2 BART Station (irransit16.1 1 System), Fremont s2 Shielded roam,i 0.1 2 SRI, Menlo Park s2 Tennis court, Palo 3.4 2 Alto s2 Golf course br@dge,3.4 2 Stanford S3 City Hall, Pal@l 2.0 1 Alto S3 Miniature tolf1course,3.0 1 Menlo ?azk s3 Kioak in park,:Menlo0.3 3 Park S3 Baylands Kstur@ 6.4 3 Preserve, Palo Alto Tdtal sum of ranks Rank SubiectTsr@et Location Distanceof (km) Associated Transcript 5 Pedestrian overpass,5.0 3 Palo Alto :5 Railroad tre @tle 1.3 6 bridge, Palo Alto S5 Windmill, Pot,tola8.5 2 Valley 55, White Plaza,,,Stanford3.8 1 S6 (2) S6 Airport, Fal91 5.5 2 Alto S6 Kiosk In Pa r@, 0.3 5 Menlo Park S6 Boathouse, S@anford4.0 1 Total sum 4f ranks 20 (P.0,08, NS) vious experience in @emote viewing, began to describe a large un in square with a fo t i Four minutes into the experiment, ize she recogn! -d the 1@cai`ion and correctly identified it by name (see Fig. 8). (It sho, Id be noted that in the area from which the target locations@ were drawn there are other fountains as well, some of whiich were in the target pool.) As an ex ample of the style 0 f the narratives generated during remote viewing with inexpe,,;(e d subjects and of the part played by . @ncedg the experimenter re nin with the subject in such a case, we have included th@ entire unedited text of this experiment as Appendix B. E. Normal and Paran'prmal: Use of Unselected Subjects in Remote Viewing After more than al year of following the experimental pro- tocol described above and observing that even inexperienced subjects generated roults better than expected, we initiated a series of experiment to explore further whether individuals other than putative @'psychics" can demonstrate the remote- viewing ability. To test this idea, we have a continuing pro- gram to carry out ad@itional experiments of the outdoor type with new subjects woom we have no a priori reason to believe have paranonnal perceptual ability. To date we have collected data from five experiments with two individuals in this cate- gory: a man and al woman who were visiting government scientists interested i4 observing our experimental protocols. The motivation for these particular experiments was twofold. IN 4*icate the level of R1DPft.W7"iR0Q3*N1=0 proficiency that can The expected from unselected volunteers. I Amroved For Release 20P0W9rW9& Q*jqRPsM-00789WM%qf 0001 -4 PUTHOFF AND TARG: PERCEPTUAL CHANNEL Fig. B. Subject (S6) drawing of White Plaza, Stanford University. Sub- ject drew what she called "curvy benches" and then announced cor- rectly that the place was "White Plaza at Stanford." d Awn 1.6 Second, when an individual observes a successful demonstra- tion experiment involving another person as subject, it inevi- blk&x tably occurs to him that perhaps chicanery is involved. We have found the most effective way to settle this issue for the observer is to have the individual himself act as a subject so as to obtain personal experience against which our reported results can be evaluated. The first visitor (VI) was invited to participate as a subject in a three-experiment series. All three experiments contained elements descriptive of the associated target locations; the quality of response increased with practice. The third re- sponse is 1 6 RESPONSES OF VISITING I 0t,9F&eRdfA!M S@V XWS~,,tlA-RDP96-00-MUMSIrOOdUM-4 apffif the drawing a peare o be a closer mat analytic interpretation of the target object as a cupola. Fig. 9. Subject (V 1) drawing of merry-go-round target. 341 342 ved For Release 2000108108 ': CIA-RDP96-00789 CPYRGWro IEEE, MARCH 1976 sows-& M%0-e apwls &W Qt[41b 0""'sP 01*` odc"' ON&" 44 2 "IC4. W" ant W44 -i as 6G It- IL23 TECHNOLOGY SERIES TYPEWRITER TARGET LIN A.As-,ff SUBJECT SWANN (S3) RESPONSE Fig. 10. SUBJECT HAMIMID (S4) RESPONSE Drawings of a typewriter target by two subjeo IS. The second visitor (V21 participated as a subject in two ex- TABLE VI periments. In his first experiment, he generated' one of the DISTRIBUTION OF RANKJ@GS ASSIGNED To TRANSCRIPTS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET Lo ATION FOR VISITOR SUBJECTS VI AND V2 higher signal-to-noise results we have observed. He began his narrative, "There is a red A-frame building and next to it is a large yellow thing [a tree-Editor] . Now further left there is another A-shape. It looks like a swing-set, but it is pushed down in a gully so I can't see the swings." (All cor- rect.] He then went on to describe a lock on the front door that he said "looks like it's made of laminated steel, so it must be a Master lock." [Also correct.) For the series of five-three from the first subject and two from the second-the numerical evaluation based on blind rank ordering of the transcripts at each site was significant at p = 0.0 17 and included three direct hits and one second rank kDP94-00789ROO3100120001 for the AfSpleff6deFtYinROttsat%FeZDNfDO/08 CIA- Rook SublectT1'rg6t Location Distanceof (km) Associated Transcript Vi Bridge over rate, 0.3 1 Menlo Park V1, Baylands Nature 6.4 2 Preserve, Palo Alto Vk Morry-jo-rounA !,Palo3.4 1 Alto V2 Windmill, Pore of& 8.5 1 Valley V2 Apartment switing 9.1 3 pool, Mountain View Total sum of! iranks (p-0,017) 4 I PUTHOFF AAPPRO V 9AAMAlse LVArq oE299OiQ8iQ8.A:TGLA4URB6-00789FW~M~0001 -4 343 TARGET LOCATION: XEROX MACHINE (TECHNOLOGY SERIES) TO ADD INTEREST TO TARGET LOCATION EXPERIMENTER WITH HIS HEAD BEING XEROXED Ic - Fig. 11. Drawings by three subjects (S2, S3, and V3) for Xerox machine target. When asked to describe the square at upper left of response on the right, subject (V3) said, "There was this predominant light source which might have been a window, and a working surface which might have been the sill, or a working surface or desk." Earlier the subject had said, "I have the feeling that there is something silhouetted against the window." Observations with unselected subjects such as those de- scribed above indicate that remote viewing may be a latent and widely distributed perceptual ability. F. Technology Series: Short-Range Remote Viewing Because remote viewing is a perceptual ability, we consid- ered it important to obtain data on its resolution capabilities. To accomplish this, we turned to the use of indoor techno- logical targets. Twelve experiments were carried out with five different sub- jects, two of whom were visiting government scientists. They were told that one of the experimenters would be sent by random protocol to a laboratory within the SRI complex and that he would interact with the equipment or apparatus at that location. It was further explained that the experimenter remaining with the subject was, as usual, kept ignorant of the contents of the target pool to prevent cueing during question- ing. (Unknown to subjects, targets in the pool were used with replacement, one of the goals of thi$ particular experiment was to obtain multiple responses to a given target to investigate whether correlation of a number of subject responses would provide enhancement of the signal-to-noise ratio.) The sub- ject was asked to describe the target both verbally (tape recorded) and by means of drawings during a time-synchronized 15-min interval in which the outbound experimenter inter- acted in. an appropriate manner with the equipment in the target area. In the twelve experiments, seven targets were used: a drill press, Xerox machine, video terminal, chart recorder, four- state random number generator, machine shop, and type- writer. Three of these were used twice (drill press, video terminal, anAVPMVe)daEdoi;nROease,20igO/G&108p: three times in our random selection procedure. Comparisons of the targets and subject drawings for three of the multiple-response cases (the typewriter, Xerox machine, and video terminal) are shown in Figs. 10, 11, and 12. As is apparent from these illustrations alone, the experiments provide circumstantial evidence for an information channel of useful bit rate. This includes experiments in which visit- ing government scientists participated as subjects (Xerox machine and video terminal) to observe the protocol. In general, it appears that use of multiple-subject responses to a single target provides better signal-to-noise ratio than target identification by a single individual. This conclusion is borne out by the judging described below. Given that in general the drawings constitute the most accurate portion of a subject's description, in the first judging procedure a judge was asked simply to blind match only the drawings (i.e., without tape transcripts) to the targets. Multiple- subject responses to a given target were stapled together, and thus seven subject-drawing response packets were to be matched to the seven different targets for which drawings were made. The judge did not have access to our photographs of the target locations, used for iflustration purposes only, but rather proceeded to each of the target locations by list. While standing at each target location, the judge was required to rank brder the seven subject-drawing response packets (presented in random order) on a scale I to 7 (best to worst match). For seven targets, the sum of ranks could range from 7 to 49. The sum in this case, which included I direct hit and 4 second ranks out of the 7 (see Table VII) was 18, a result significant at p = 0.036. In the second more detailed effort at evaluation, a visiting scientist selected at random one of the 12 data packages (a CIA-RDP86~007r8RRNlADQllmGQ4-n4ted it for in dependent analysis to an engineer with a request for an esti- 41 ... Approved FoKM&M12000/08/08: CIA-RDP96-00789R0(J84(WJ2ftqf - E IEEE, MARCH 19? ""W" 'A 7:7 Pl.!'@@.'_17,` 7 TARGET: VIDEO MONITOR FOR TEXT EDITING (TECHNOLOGY SERIES) 03 (a) (b) Fig. 12. Drawing by two subjects of a video monitor target. (a) Subject (S4) drawing of "bOX1 with light coming out of it ... painted flat blaO and in the middle of the room." (b) Second subject (V2) saw a computer terminalliwith relay racks in the background. TABLE VII TABLE VIII ]DISTRIBUTION OF RANKINGs AssIGNED TO SUBJECT SUMMARY: REMOTE VIENVING DRAWINGS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH TARGET LOCATION Number of p__Va1_u*, Rank Rank SubjectTarget of Associated Drswings S3, Drill press 2 S4 S2, Xerox machine 2 S3, V3 S4, Video terminal1 V2 S3 chart recorder2 S4 Random number 6 generator 84 Machine shop 3 S3, Typewriter 2 S4 Total aum of ranks mate as to what was being described. The analyst, blind as to the target and given only the subject's taped narrative and drawing (Fig. 13), was able, from the subject's descri@tion alone, to correctly classify the target as a 44 man-sized vertical boring machine." G. Summary of Remote Viewing Results 1) Discussion: The, descriptions supplied by the subjects in the experiments involving remote viewing of natural targets or laboratory apparatus, although c.ontaining inaccuracies, were sufficiently accurate to permit the ' d -s W, e=@ee amonRkP4iIWYeAEM 41 eww R S.bl.4r Experiments2Ldsr _ 12A&in& _ i _. WLth natural targ@ _ ts Sl (expsrienced@ 9 2. 9 X 10' 5 -4 S2 and S3 (exp*Aenced)a 3.8 x 10 S4 (learner) 9 1. 8 x 10' 6 S5 and S6 (lenisners)a 0.08 (NS) VL and V2 (learqers/visitors)5 0.017 With technology targets S2, S3, S4, v2,,v312 0.036 tabulation of the statistical evaluations of these fifty-one ex- periments with nioie subjects is presented in Table VIII. The overall result, evaluated conservatively on the basis of a judging procedure ihat ignores transcript quality beyond that necessary to rank qrder the data packets (vastly underestimat- ing the statistical significance of individual descriptions), clearly indicates t e presence of an information channel of useful bit rate. urthermore, it appears that the principal difference betwee experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteers is not t@at the latter never exhibit the faculty, but rather that their relults are simply less reliable, more sporadic. Nevertheless, as delcribed earlier, individual transcripts from the inexperienced Oroup of subjects number among some of the best obtained.' Such observations indicate a hypothesis la2bb t and widely distributed O@ PUT@OFF AkpppTJMVedfb"lehmlBE2(lO~M&*8AT(DIAT-RMVN-OOMRRGI-00120001-4 34S Fig. 13. Subject (S4) drawing of drill press showing belt drive, stool, and a "vertical graph that goes up and down," Thus the primary achievement'of the SRI program was the elicitation of high-quality remote viewing from individuals who agreed to act as subjects. Criticism of this claim could in principle be put forward on the basis of three potential flaws. 1) The study could involve naivet6 in' protocol that permits various forms of cueing, intentional or unintentional. 2) The experiments discussed could be selected out of a larger pool of experiments of which many are of poorer quality. 3) Data for the reported experiments could be edited to show only the matching elements, the nonmatching elements being discarded. All three criticisms, however, are invalid. First, with regard to cueing, the use of double-blind protocols ensures that none of the persons in contact with the subject can be aware of the target. Second, selection of experiments for reporting did not take place; every experiment was entered as performed on a master log and is included in the statistical evaluations. Third, data associated with a given experiment remain unedited; all experiment t motto - ane ee sare -9 1 eMovap"Yor edited in the"Mpr P In the process of judging-attempting to match transcripts against targets on the basis of the information in the transcripts-some patterns and regularities in the transcript descriptions became evident, particularly regarding individual styles in remote viewing and in the perceptual form of the descriptions given by the subjects. These patterns and the judging procedure are discussed below. a) Styles of response: The fifty-one transcripts were taken from nine different subjects. Comparing the tran- scripts of one subject with those of another revealed that each pattern tended to focus on certain aspects of the remote target complex and to exclude others, so that each had an individual pattern of response, like a signature. Subject S3, for example, frequently responded with topo- graphical descriptions, maps, and architectural features of the target locations. Subject S2 often focused on the behavior of the remote experimenter or the sequence of actions he carried out at the target. The transcripts of subject S4, more than those of other subjects, had descriptions of the feel of the lo- cation, and experiential or sensory gestalts-for example, light/dark elements in the scene and indoor/outdoor and enclosed/open distinctions. Prominent features of SI's tran- scripts were detailed descriptions of what the target persons were concretely experiencing, seeing, or doing-for example, standing on asphalty blacktop overlooking water; looking at a purple iris. The range of any individual subject's responses was wide. Anyone might draw a map or describe the mood of the remote experimenter, but the consistency of each subject's overall approach suggests that just as individual descriptions of a directly viewed scene would differ, so these differences also occur in remote-viewing processes. b) Nature of the description: The concrete descriptions that appear most commonly in transcripts are at the level of subunits of the overall scene. For example, when the target was a Xerox copy machine, the responses included (S2) a rolling object (the moving light) or dials and a cover that is lifted (S3), but the machine as a whole was not identified by name or function. In a few transcripts, the subjects correctly identified and named the target. In the case of a computer terminal, the subject M) apparently perceived the terminal and the relay racks behind it. In the case of targets which were Hoover To 'wer and White Plaza, the subjects (S I and S6, respectively) seemed to identify the locations through analysis of their initial images of the elements of the target. There were also occasional incorrect identifications. Gestalts were incorrectly named; for example, swimming pools in a park were identified as water storage tanks at a water filtration plapt (S 1). The most common perceptual level was thus an intermediate one-the individual elements and items that make up the tar-_ get. This is suggestive of a scanning process that takes sample perceptions from within the overall environment. When the subjects tried to make sense out of these fragmen- tary impressions, they often resorted to metaphors or con- strUcted an image with a kind of perceptual inference. From a feeling of the target as an "august" and "solemn" building, a subject (S4) said it might be a library; it was a church. A pedestrian overpass above a freeway was described as a conduit (S4). A rapid transit station, elevated above the countryside, mdata w1thgqVgX1 @h @e re on s t@ 0 eq. JTX sp se qx rs 10 s p ial informa- ne g6q Es 346 CPYR IEEE, MARCH 1971 tion: similarly, this Occurs in other not be visibleobserver merely standing parapsychological experi- to ' at ground leve', -scribing he sees. (In particular, ments. These observations are compatiblewh t a subject often with the hypotheses and de that information received in a putativecorrectly lements not visible to remote-viewing mode describes the target demarca- 'e is processed piecemeal in pattern formtion team.) y, motion is seldom reported; (consistent with a low Fino in fact: bit rate process, but not necessarily moving objectsn are unseen even when requiring it); and the of' fe nearby static errors arise in the processes of attemptedobjects are identified. integration of the correctl@ data into larger patterns directed A comparison the results of remote toward verbal labeling. of! viewing (a so-called When the subjects augmented the verbalfree-responseith results of forced-choice transcripts with task) w tasks, such as drawings or sketches, these often expressedthe selectionof four choices generated the target elements of one by a random more accurately than the verbal descriptions.number generator8 1, reveals the following Thus the draw- [ @ findings. From a ings tended to correspond to the targetsstatistical a subject is more likely more clearly and viewpoin@, to describe, with precisely than the words of the transcript.sufficient to permit blind matching, accuracy a remote site i i The descriptions given by the subjectschosen at an he is to select correctly sometimes went be- random one of four r yond what the remote experimenter experienced,random numbers.ur experience with these at least con- phenomena leads sciously. For example, one subject us to Consider (S4) described and drew that'; this difference in task performance may a belt drive at the top of a drill stem from press that was invisible even to fundam@ntal signal-to-noise considerations. Two the remote experimenter who was operatingprincipal noise in the system apparently the machine; sources o@ are mem- another subject .(SI) described a numberory and imagination, both of which can give of items behind rise to mental shrubbery and thus not visible to memberspictures of arity than the target of the demarcation greater @l to be perceived. In team at the site. the random task, a subject can create number! a perfect mental Curiously, objects in motion at the picture of e four possible outputs remote site were rarely each Of T@ in his own imagi- mentioned in the transcript. For example,nation and empt to obtain the correct trains crossing the then ati answer by a railroad trestle target were not described,mental matchingration. The same is true though the remote opp for card guessing experimenter stood very close to them.experiments. o other hand, the subject On th in remote view- Also in a few cases, the subject descriptionsing is apparentlyore likely to approach were inaccurate ni the task with a regarding size of structures. A 20-ft blank mind tempts to perceive pictorial courtyard separating two as he a@ information buildings was described as 200 ft wide,from remote ns about which he may and a small shed was locatio have no stored expanded to a barn-like structure. mental data. c) Blind judging of transcripts: The Finally, we judging procedure obser@e that most of the correct information entailed examining the transcripts that subjectso us is of a nonanalytic for a given experimental relate t@,l nature pertaining series and attempting to match the to shape, @l and material rather transcripts with the cor- form, colo than to function or rect targets on the basis of their name. In consultatioh with Dr. Robert Ornstein correspondences. The tran- of the Langley- scripts varied from coherent and accuratePorter Neuropsychia@ric Institute, San Francisco, descriptions to mix- CA, and with tures of correspondences and noncorrespondences.Dr. Ralph f the Department of Neurology, Since the Kiernan o Stanford judge did not know a priori which elementsUniversity Center, Stanford, CA, of the descriptions ld@dical we have formed were correct or incorrect, the task the tentativeilesis, that paranormal was complicated, and tran- hypot functioning may scripts often seemed plausibly to matchinvolve specializatior@ characteristic of the more than one target. brain's right hemi- A confounding factor in these studies sphere. This lity is derived from a is that some target lo- possibi variety of evidence cations have similarities that seem from clinicalIosurgical sources which alike at some level of per- and n indicate that the e' For ihe human brain are specialized ception. example, a radio telescope two hemispheresfor dif- at the top of a hill, of the observation deck of a tower, and ferent cognitivetions. The left hemisphere a jetty on the edge of a fun is predomi- bay all match a transcript descriptionnantly activeq and other analytical of "looking out over a in verb functioning and the long distance." A lake, a fountain, right hemisphereedominates in spatial and a creek may all result pr and other holistic in an image of water for the subject. processing p]. Further research is Therefore, in several [591, f6 necessary to cases, even correct images may not elucidate *ip between right hemisphere help in the conservative the relatio function differential matching procedure used. and paranormall@ties. Nonetheless, we abi can say at this According to the judge, the most successfulpoint that @-viewing results of the procedure was a the remot group of subjects careful element-by- element comparisonat SRI have @ristics in common with that tested each tran. charact more familiar script against every target and used performances eiquire right hemispheric the transcript descriptions that r function. The and drawings as arguments for or againstsimilarities e highly schematicized assigning the tran- include t drawings of ob- script to a particular target. In mostjects in a remote scenes. Verbal cases, this resulted in room or of identification of i either a clear conclusion or at least these drawingst a ranking of probable is of en highly inaccurate and the drawings matches; these matches were subjected themselves ,@ntly left-right reversed to the statistical are frequ relative to the analyses presented in this paper. target configuration.1 Further, written material generally is 2) Summary: In summary, we do not yet not cognized.e characteristics have have an under- Thes been seen in left standing of the nature of the inform brain-injured@nd in call osal-section ation-bearing signal that a patients ed patients. subject perceives during remote viewing.As a result above considerations, The subjects com- of the we have learned to monly report that they perceive the urge our subjectsoly to describe what they signal visually as though sim see as opposed they were looking at the object or to what they hey are looking at. We place from a position in its think t have learned that immediate neighborhood. Furthermore, their unanalyzedcIptions are almost always the subjects' per- per a better guide ceptual viewpoint has mobility in thatto the true an their interpretations they can shift their target th of the perceived point of view so as to describe elementsdata. of a scene that would Approved For Release 2000/08108 : CIA-RD OO3100120001-4 P96-00789R CPYRGHT PUTHOFF AAPPMV~CkFfort.RekmseE2000/88M4aQKT-RiDR96-00789ROO3100120001-4 347 IV. CONSMERATIONS CONCERNING TiME If the authors may be forgiven a personal note, we wish to express that this section deals with observations that we have been reluctant to publish because of their striking apparent in- compatibility with existing concepts. The motivating factor for presenting the data at this time is the ethical consideration that theorists endeavoring to develop models for paranormal functioning should be apprised of all the observable data if their efforts to arrive at a comprehensive and correct descrip- tion are to be successful. During the course of the experimentation in remote viewing (Section III), subjects occasionally volunteered the informa- tion that they had been thinking about their forthcoming par- ticipation in a remote-viewing experiment and had an image come to them as to what the target location was to be. On these occasions, the information was given only to the experi- menter remaining at SRI with the subject and was unknown to the outbound experimenter until completion of the experi- ment. Two of these contributions were among the most accurate descriptions turned in during those experiments. Since the target location had not yet been selected when the subject communicated his perceptions about the target, we found the data difficult to contend with. We offer these spontaneous occurrences not as proof of pre- cognitive perception, but rather as' the motivation that led us to do further work in this field. On the basis of this firsthand evidence, together with the copious literature describing years of precognition experiments carried out in various other labo- ratories, we decided to determine whether a subject could per- form a perceptual task that required both spatial and temporal remote viewing. It is well known and recently has been widely discussed that nothing in the fundamental laws of physics forbids the appar- ent transmission of information from the future to the present (discussed further in Section V). Furthermore, there is a gen- eral dictum that "in physical law, everything that is not forbid- den, is required" (611. With this in mind, we set out to con- duct very well-controlled experiments to determine whether we could deliberately design and execute experiments for the sole purpose of observing precognition under laboratory conditions. The experimental protocol was identical to that followed in previoiLs remote-viewing experiments with but one exception. The exception was that the subject was required to describe the remote location during a 15-min period beginning 20 min before the target was selected and 3S min before the outbound experimenter was to arrive at the target location. In detail, as shown in Table IX, each day at ten o'clock one of the experimenters would leave 'SRI with a stack of ten sealed envelopes from a larger pool and randomized daily, con- taining traveling instructions that had been prepared, but that were unknown to the two experimenters remaining with the subject. The subject for this experiment was Hella Hammid (S4) who participated in the nine-experiment series replicating the original Price work described earlier. The traveling experi- menter was to drive continuously from 10:00 until 10:30 be- fore selecting his destination with a random number generator. (The motivation for continuous motion was our observation that objects and persons in rapid motion are not generally seen in the remote-viewing mode of perception, and we wished the traveler to be a poor target until he reached his target site.) At the end of ApPareWdnEOireRMeaseculOMMIO&4- TABLE IX ExPERIMENTAL PROTOCOL: PRECOGNITIvE REMOTE VIEWING Time Experiments r/Subj ec t Activity Schedule - 10:00 Outbound experimenter leaves with 10 envelopes (containing target locations) and random number generator; begins half-hour drive 10:10 Experimenters remaining with subject in the laboratory elicit from subject a description of where outbound experimenter will be from 10:45-11:00 10:25 Subject response completed, at which time laboratory part of experiment is over 10:30 Outbound experimenter obtains random number from a random number generator, counts down to associated envelope, and proceeds to target location indicated 10:45 Outbound experimenter remains at target location for 15 minutes (lOi45-11:00) ated a random digit from 0 to 9 with a Texas Instruments SR-51 random number generator; while still in motion, he counted down that number of envelopes and proceeded di- rectly to the target location so as to arrive there by 10:45. He remained at the target site until 11:00, at which time he re- turned to the laboratory, showed his chosen target name to a security guard, and entered the experimental room. During the same period, the protocol in the laboratory was as follows. At 10: 10, the subject was asked to begin a descrip- tion of the place to which the experimenter would go 35 min hence. The subject then generated a tape-recorded description and associated drawings from 10: 10 to 10:25, at which time her part in the experiment was ended. Her description was thus entirely concluded 5 min before the beginning of the tar- get selection pro cedure. Four such experiments were carried out. Each of them ap- peared to be successful, an evaluation later verified in blind judging without error by three judges. We will briefly sum- rn@arize the four experiments below. The first target, the Palo Alto Yacht Harbor, consisted en- tirely of mud flats because of an extremely low tide (see Fig. 14). Appropriately, the entire transcript of the subject per- tained to "some kind of congealing tar, or maybe an area of condensed lava. It looks like the whole area is covered with some kind of wrinkled elephant skin that has oozed out to fin up some kind of boundaries where (the outbound experi- menter) is standing." Because of the lack of water, the dock where the remote experimenter was standing was in fact rest- CIA-ADN&DOTUR003100120001-4 Fig. 14. Subject Hammid (S4) described "some kind of congealing tar, or maybe an area of condensed lava ... that has oozed out to fill up some kind *of boundaries." lEEE, MARCH 1@76 Fig. 16. Subject (S4) saw a "black Iron triangle that Hal had somehow walked into" and hea@d a "squeak, squeak, about once a second." Fig. 17. Subject (S4) di streets and Fig. IS. Subject (S4) described a The final target formal garden "very well manicured" was behind a double colonnade. subject described a "Tiffany-like glass." @ Note that the subject has learned with little not to rush into interpreta- cubes at th tion as to the nature or purpose of I the place. This is a result the little cubes are I of our cautioning based on the observationbuildings located that such efforts in t@ tend to be purely analytical and in To obtain a our experience are almost numeri invariably incorrect. If a subject cognitive viewing, can limit himself to what he tht sees, he is often then able to describeindependent a scene with sufficient judging accuracy that an observer can performwho were not the analysis for him and otherw identify the place. judges were asked t@ The second target visited was the visited, against fountain 'at one end of a the u large formal garden at Stanford Universityrecorded narratives, Hospital (Fig. 15). g The subject gave a lengthy descriptionremote viewer. of a formal garden be- The t ' hind a wall with a "double colonnade"in random order and "very well mani- and cured." When we later took the subjectcorrect match to the location, she req i r I was herself taken aback to find the :t double colonnaded wall ment be matched ; leading into the garden just as described.judges independently The third target was a children's swing at a small park .4.6 kin TT 'J data without error. from the laboratory (Fig. 16). The channel and subject repeated again and a rando again that the main focus of attentionplacement), at the site was a "black each judg iron triangle that the outbound experimentercant at p (4 had somehow 1)-1 0. walked into or was standing on." The For reasons triangle was "bigger we do n than a man," and she heard a "squeak,generated in squeak, about once a the preca econd," which we observe is a match herence and to the black metal swing accuracy hat did squeak. judges were I able to = e e cal on pe pedited ong ranscripts L i, , Approved For Release 2000108108: CIA-RDP96-00789R a very tall structure located among city with "Tiffany-like glass." the Palo Alto City Hall (Fig. 17). The very, very tall structure covered with he had it located among city streets and base. The building is glass-'covered, and good match to the small elevator exit plaza in front of the building. evaluation of the accuracy of the pre experimental results were subjected to a blind basis by three SRI scientists associated with the experiment. The match the four locations, which they typed manuscripts of the tape with the drawings generated by the were presented unlabeled and @ere to be used without replacement. A Id that the transcript of a given experi- the target of that experiment. All three ' tch d the target data to the response der the null hypothesis (no information selection of descriptions without re- independently obtained a result signifi- as yet understand, the four transcripts ition experiment show exceptional co- evidenced by the fact that all of the Ch successfull f the transcripts to )3 - - - 2-U1660-4 348 Q ,,ZYRQHT Ar%nrf%%1Ari 2000108108 CIP PUT1HOFF A 349 20001-4 the corresponding target locations. A long-range experimental prograrn devoted to the clarification of these issues and involv- ing a number of subjects is under way. The above four experi- ments are the first four carried out under this program. Currently, we have no precise model of this spatial and tem- poral remote-viewing phenomenon. However, models of the universe involving higher order synchronicity or correlation have been proposed by the physicist Pauli and the psychologist Carl Jung [62). ACAUSALITY. If natural laws were an absolute truth, then of course there could not possibly be any processes that deviate from it. But since causalitys is a statistical truth, it holds good only on average and thus leaves room for exceptions which must somehow be experienceable, that is to say, real. I try to regard synchronittic events as acausal exceptions of this kind. They prove to be relatively independent of space and time; they rela- tivize space and time insofar as space presents in principle no ob- stacle to their passage and the sequence of events in time is in- verted so that it looks as if an event which has not yet occurred were causing a perception in the present. We shall see in the next section that such a description, though poetic, has some basis in modern physical theory. V. DISCUSSION It is important to note at the outset that many contempo- rary physicists are of the view that the phenomena that we have been discussing are not at all inconsistent with the framework of physics as currently understood. In this emerg- ing view, the often-held belief that observations of this type are incompatible with known laws in ptinciple is erroneous, such a concept being based on the naive realism prevalent before the development of modem quantum theory and information theory. One hypothesis, put forward by 1. M. Kogan of the ,USSR, is that information transfer under conditions of iensory shielding is mediated by extremely low-frequency (ELF) electromagnetic waves in the 300-1000-km region [371- [40]. Experimental support for the hypothesis is claimed on the basis of slower than inverse square attenuation, com- patible with source-percipient distances lying in the induc- tion field range as opposed to the radiation field range; ob- served low bit rates (0.005-0.1 bit/s) compatible with the information carrying capacity of ELF waves; apparent ineffec- tiveness of ordinary electromagnetic shielding as an attenuator; and standard antenna calculations entailing biologically gener- ated currents yielding results compatible with observed signal- to-noise ratios. M. Persinger, Psychophysiology Laboratory, @aurentian Uni- versity, Toronto, Canada, has narrowed the ELF hypothesis to the suggestion that the 7.8-Hz "Shumann waves" and their harmonics propagating along the eirth-ionosphere waveguide duct may be responsible. Such an hypothesis is compatible with driving by brain-wave currents and leads to certain other hypotheses such as asymmetry between east-west and west- east propagation, preferred experimental times (midnight-4 A.M.), and expected negative correlation between. success and the U index (a measure of geomagnetic disturbance throughout the world). Persinger claims initial support for these factors on the basis of a literature search (631, [64]. , On the negative side with regard to a straightforward ELF interpretation as a blanket hypothesis are the following: a) ap As usually parent real-time descriptions of remote activities in sufficient @dotail to require a channel capacity in all probability greater than that allowed by a conventional modulation of an ELF signal; b) lack of a proposed mechanism for coding and decod- ing the information onto the proposed ELF carrier; and c) ap- parent precognition data. The hypothesis must nonetheless re- main open at this stage of research, since it is conceivable that counterindication a) may eventually be circumvented on the basis that the apparent high bit rate results from a mixture of low bit rate input and high bit rate "filling in the blanks" from imagination; counterindication b) is common to a number of normal perceptual tasks and may therefore simply reflect a lack of sophistication on our part with regard to perceptual functioning, [65]; and counterindication c) may be accom- modated by an ELF hypothesis if advanced waves as well as retarded waves are admitted [66], [67]. Experimentation 'to determine whether the ELF hypothesis is viable can be carried out by the use of ELF sources as targets, by the study of para- metric dependence on propagational directions and diumal timing, and by the exploration of interference effects caused by creation of a high-intensity ELF environment during ex- perimentation, all of which are under consideration in our lab- oratory and elsewhere. Some physicists believe that the reconciliation of observed paranormal functioning with modern theory may take place at a more fundamental level-namely, at the level of the founda- tions of quantum theory. There is a continuing dialog, for example, on the proper interpretation of the effect of an ob- server (consciousness) on experimental measurement (681, and there is considerable current interest in the implications for our notions of ordering in time and space brought on by the observation [691, [701 of nonlocal correlation or "quan- tum interconnectedness" (to use Bohm's term [711) of distant parts of quantum systems of macroscopic dimensions. The latter, Bell's theorem [721, emphasizes that "no theory of reality compatible with quantum theory can require spatially separated events to be independent" [73], but must permit interconnectedness of distant events in a manner that is con- trary to ordinary experience [74]-[751. This prediction has been experimentally tested and confirmed in the recent experiments of, for example, Freedman and Clauser [691, [701. E. H. Walker and 0. Costa de Beauregard, independently proposing theories of paranormal functioning based on quan- tum concepts, argue that observer effects open the door to the possibility of nontrivial coupling between consciousness and the environment and that the nonlocality principle permits such coupling to transcend spatial and temporal barriers [761, [771. Apparent "time reversibility "-that is, effects (e.g., observa- tions) apparently preceding causes (e.g., events)-though con- ceptually difficult at first glance, may be the easiest of appar- ent paranormal phenomena to assimilate within the current theoretical structure of our world view. In addition to the familiar retarded potential solutions f(t - r1c), it is well known that the equations of, for example, the electromagnetic field admit of advanced potential solutions f(t + r/c)-solutions that would appear to imply a reversal of cause and effect. Such solutions are conventionally discarded as not corresponding to any observable physical event. One is cautioned, however, by statements such as that of Stratton in his basic text on electro- 350 CPYRGHT The reader has doubtless noted that the choice of the function f(t - r1c) is highly arbitrary, since the field equation admits also a solution fl(t + r1c). 11is function leads obviously to an advanced time, implying that the field can be observed before it has been generated by the source. The familiar chain of cause and effect is thus reversed and this alternative solution might be discarded as logically inconceivable. However, the application of "logical" causality principles offers very insecure footing in matters such as these and we shall do better to restrict the theory to retarded actio?i solely on the grounds that this solution alone conforms to the present physical data. Such caution is justified by the example in the early 1920's of Dirac's development of the mathematical description of the relativistic electron that also yielded a pair of solutions, one of which was discarded as inapplicable until the discovery of the positron in 1932. . In an analysis by 0. Costa de Beauregard, an argument is put forward that advanced potentials constitute a convergence toward "finality" in a manner symmetrical to the divergence of retarded potentials as a result of causality (771. Such phenomena are generally unobservable, however, on the gross macroscopic scale for statistical reasons. This is codified in the thermodynamic concept that for an isolated system entropy (disorder) on the average increases. It is just this requirement of isolation, however, that has been weakened by the observer problem in quantum theory, and 0. Costa de Beauregard argues that the finality principle is maximally operative in just those situations where the intrusion of consciousness as an ordering phenomenon results in a significant local reversal of entropy increase. At this point, further discussion of the subtleties of such considerations, though apropos, would take us far afield , so we simply note that such advanced waves, if detected, could in certain cases constitute a carripr of information precognitive to the event. The above arguments are not intended to indicate that the precise nature of the information channel coupling remote events and human perception is understood. Rather, we in- tend to show only that modem theory is not without resources that can he brought to bear on the problems at hand, and we expect that these problems will, with further work, continue to yield to analysis and specification. Furthermore, independent of the mechanisms that may.be involved in remote sensing, observation of the phenomenon implies the existence of an information channel in the inform ation-the ore tic sense. Since such channels are amenable to analysis on the basis of communication theory techniques, as indicated earlier, channel characteristics such as bit rate can be determined independent of a well-defined physical channel model in the sense that thermodynamic concepts can be ap- plied to the analysis of systems independent of underlying mechanisms. Furthermore, as we have seen from the work of RyzI discussed in Section 11, it is po'ssible to use such a channel for effor-free transmission of information if redundancy coding is used. (See also Appendix A.) Therefore, experimentation involving the collection of data under specified conditions per- mits headway to be made despite the formidable work that needs to be done to clarify the underlying bases of the phenomena. VI. CONCLUSION For the past three years we have had a program in the Elec- tronics and Bioengineering Laboratory of SRI to investigate those facets of human perception that appear to fall outside the ra*pprovfto~ftfbPJL40eeou200Qffi&DZg:QA- PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, MARCH 1-97( bilities. The prim4'ry achievement of this program has beer the elicitation of @igh-quality "remote viewing"-the abilit@ of both experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteer. to view, by means of innate mental processes, remote geo graphical or technical targets such as roads, buildings, and laboratory apparatus. Our accumulated data from over fifty expenments with ore than a half-dozen subjects indicate the following. a) The phenomenon is not a sensitive function of distance over a range of several kilometers. b) Faraday cage shielding does not a@ppear to degrade the quality or accuracy of perception. c) Moit of the correct information that subjects relate is of a nonanalytic nature pertaining to shape, form, color, and material rather than to function or name. (This aspect suggests a [iypothesis that information transmission under conditions of sensory shielding may be mediated pri in marfly by the bra 's right hemisphere.) d) The principal difference between experienced subjects and inexperienced volunteers is not th t the latter never exhibit the faculty, but rather that their res Iults are simply less reliable. (This observa- tion suggests the ypothesis that remote viewing may be a latent and widely istributed, though repressed, perceptual ability.) Although the pm ise nature of the information channel cou- pling remote events and human perception is not yet under- stood, certain cor cepts in information theory, quantum theory, and neuropt ysiological. research appear to bear directly on the issue. As a result, the working assumption among re- sea-rchers in the filld is that the phenomenon of interest is consistent with mo em scientific thought, and can therefore be expected to yie d to the scientific method. Further, it is recognized that communication theory provides powerful techniques, such as the use of redundancy coding to improve signal-to-noise ratio which can be employed to pursue special- purp'q@e application'l Pf the remote-sensing channel independent of an understandingl of the underlying mechanisms. We there- fore consider it important to continue data collection and to encourage others to do likewise; investigations such as those reported here need eplication and extension under as wide a variety of rigorously controlled conditions as possible. APPENDix A SIGNAL ENk ANCEMENT IN A PARANORMAL COMMUNICAt ION CHANNEL By APPLICATION oFiREDUNDANCY CODING Independent of e mechanisms that may be involved in th remote sensing, observation of the phenomenon implies the existence of an in i@ormation channel in the information theoretic sense. As we have seen from the work of RyzI dis 16 - cussed in Section 11,@ it is even possible to use such a (noisy) channel for error-f @ee transmission of information if suf- ficient redundancy coding is used [ 301, [ 3 11. Following is a general procedure t@at we have used successfully for signal enhancement. I We shall assume t4at the "message" consists of a stream of binary digits (0, 1) Of equal probability (e.g., binary sort of green/white cards as !in Ryzl's case, English text encoded as in Table X and sent lor g distance by strobe light on/off, and so on). To combat ch nel noise, each binary digit to be sent through the channel requires the addition of redundancy bits (coding). Efficient c oding requires a compromise between the desire to maximize reliability and the desire to minimize re- work done by 6(Y1LW-JdVV2fessu' CPYRGHT PUTHOFF AA~)PWVEPdRFUFI:Z619MV20WGBtW~,IMA4ROM-00789ROO3100120001-4 351 TABLE X 5-BIT CODE FOP ALPHANUMCRIC CHARACTERS z 50 (D U 0 E 00000Y 01000 11111G,J 10111 N 00001W 01001 R 11110V 10110 00010B 0101.0 111010 lolot A 000111 01011 SXZ 111002 10100 D 001003 01100 H 110114 10011 L 001015 01101 CXQ 110106 10010 F 001107 01110 P 110018 10001 U 001119 01111 M 11DOO 10000 Note: Alphabet characters listed in order of decreasing frequency in English text. See, for example, A. Sinkov [791. (The low-fre- quency letters, X, Z, K, Q, and J, have been grouped with similar characters to provide space for numerics in a * S-bit code.) In consideration of the uneven dis- tribution of letter frequencies in English text, this code is chosen such that 0 and I have equal probability. dundancy. One efficient coding scheme for such a channel is obtained by application of a sequential sampling procedure of the type used in production-line quality control [801. The adaptation of such a procedure to paranormal communication channels, which we now discuss, was considered first by Taetzsch [811. The sequential method gives a rule of proce- dure for making one of three possible decisions following the receipt of each bit: accept I as the bit being transmitted; reject I as the bit being transmitted (i.e., accept 0); or continue transmission of the bit under consideration. The sequential sampling procedure differs from fixed-length coding in that the number of bits required to reach a final decision on a message bit Is not fixed before transmission, but depends on the results accumulated with each transmission. The principal advantage of the sequential sampling procedure as compared with the other methods is that, on the average, fewer bits per final decision are required for an equivalent degree of reliability. Use of the sequential sampling procedure requires the speci- fication of parameters that are determined on the basis of the following; considerations. Assume that a message bit (0 or 1) is being transmitted. In the absence of a priori knowledge, we may assume equal probability (p = 0.5) for the two possibili- ties (0,I). Therefore, from the standpoint of the receiver, the probability of correctly identifying the bit being transmitted is p = 0.5 because of chalice alone. An operative remote-sensing channel could then be, expected to alter the probability of correct identification to a value p = 0.5 + ip, where the param- eter 0 satisfies 0 < I V/ I < O.s. (The quantity may be positive or negative depending on whether the paranormal channel results in so-called psi-hitting or psi-missing.) Good psi func- tioning on a repetitive task has been observed to result in @ = 0.12, as reported by Ryzl [311. Therefore, to indicate the design proce'Ayppt*vodarmWeReleRS02000AM()er: @b = 0. 1 and design a communication system on this basis. 1 1 1 1 DECISION 1 Accept "1" as the Bit Being TransmittedECISION Continue ransmission DECISION 2 Accept "0" as - the Bit Being Transmitted 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 so NUMBER OF TRIALS Fig. 18. Enhancement of signal-to-noise ratio by sequential sampling procedure (po = 0.4@ p, = 0.6, a = 0.01, P = 0.0 1). The question to be addressed is whether, after repeated transmission, a given message bit is labeled a "I" at a low rate Po commensurate with the hypothesis HO that the bit in ques- tion is a "0," or at a higher rate p, commensurate with the hypothesis H, that the bit in question is indeed a "l." The decision-making process requires the specification of four parameters. po The probability of labeling incorrectly a "0" message bit as a " 1. " The probability of labeling correctly a "0" as a "0" is P = 0-5 + V1b = 0.6. Therefore, the probability of labeling incorrectly a "0" as a "I" is I - p = 0.4 = po. p I The probability of labeling correctly a "I" message bit as a "I," is given by p I = 0-5 + Ob = 0.6. a The probability of rejecting a correct identification for a "0" (Type I error). We shall take ci = 0.0 1. The probability of accepting an incorrect identification for a "l" (Type 11 error). We shall takep= 0.01. With the parameters thus specified, the sequential sampling procedure provides for construction of a decision graph as shown in Fig. 18. The equations for the upper and lower limit lines are =dl +SN 0 =-do + SN where log I - log I - a of dl Li- I - PO do Pi Po log log PO I - pi PO Pi I - Po log S_ I - pi P, I - Po log P0 I -Pi in which S is the slope N and d and of receiver- generated responses to the target bit is compiled until either 352 CPYRGHT @0 E 0.8 0 >@ z .6 -0 d) 0 0) OM ,0.4 >- E Fn 0.2 _J a) Ui cc Fig. 19. Reliability curve for sequential sampling procedure (P, 0.4, P, @ 0.6, a = 0.01, P = 0.01). the upper or the lower limit line is reached, at which point a decision is made to accept 0 or I as the bit being transmitted. Channel reliability (probability of correctly determining message being transmitted) as a function of operative psi parameter Vi is plotted in Fig. 19. As observed, the sequential sampling procedure can result in 90 percent or greater reliability with psi parameters on the order of a few percent. Implementation of the sequential sampling procedure re- quires the transmission of a message coded in binary digits. Therefore, the target space must consist of dichotomous ele- ments such as the white and green cards used in the experi- ments by RyzI. In operation, a sequence corresponding to the target bit (0 or 1) is sent and the cumulative entries are made (Fig. 18) until a decision is reached to accept either a I or a 0 as the bit being transmitted. At a prearranged time, the next sequence is begun and continues as above until the entire message has been received. A useful alternative, which relieves the percipient of the burden of being aware of his self-contradiction from trial to trial, consists of cycling through the entire message repeti- tively and entering each response on its associated graph until a decision has been reached on all message bits. The authors have used this technique successfully in a pilot study, but a discussion of this would take us beyond the intended scope of this paper. From the results obtained in such experiments, the channel bit rate can be ascertained for the system configuration under consideration. Furthermore, bit rates for 6ther degrees of reliability (i.e., for other po, p 1, a, and P) can be estimated by construction of other decision curves over the same data base and thus provide a measure of the bit rate per degree of reliability. In summary, the procedures described here can provide for a specification of the characteristics of a remote-sensing channel under well-defined conditions. These procedures also provide for a determination of the feasibility of such a channel for particular applications. APPENDix B REMOTE-VIEWING TRANSCRIPT Following is the unedited transcript of the first experiment with an SRI volunteer (SO, a mathematician in the computer science laborato th "A ApprovWMWNIIN MOMM' PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, MARCH 197, viewing. The targ t, determined by random procedure, wa a t White's Plaza, %za with fountain at Stanford UniverSit) (shown in Fig. 8).1 As is our standard protocol, the experi menter with the subject is kept ignorant of the specific targei e contents of the target pool. The experi visited as well as t1i menter's statemento and questions are italics. Today is Monday! October 7th. It is 11:00 and this is a re- mote viewing experfment with Russ Targ, Phyllis Cole, and Ha, Puthoff, In this e*periment Hal will drive to a remote site chosen by a random'process. Phyllis Cole will be the remote viewer, and Russ T@rg is the monitor. We expect this experi. ment to start at t*enty minutes after eleven and run for fif teen minutes. It is just about twenty minutes after eleven and Hal should be at his target locafion by now. Why don't you t 11 me what kind of pictures you see and whatyouthinkhe ight be doing or experiencing. The first thing th t came to mind was some sort of a large, square kind of a shope. Like Hal was in front of it. It was a ... not a building dr something, it was a square. I don't know if it was a window,!but something like that so that the bottom line of it was not at Ithe ground. About where his waist was, at least. That's what t seemed to me. It seems outdoors some- how. Tree. Does Hal seem to @e looking at that square? I don't know. T1 e first impression was that he wasn't, but I have a sense that whatever it was was something one might look at. I don't know if it would be a sign, but something that one might look at. - Can you tell if it 0 on the ground or vertical? It seemed vertical.i I don't have a serise that it was part of anything particular. It might be on a b@ilding or part of a building, but I don't know. There was al tree outside, but I also got the impression of cement. I don't 'have the impression of very many people or traffic either. I have the sense that he is sort of walking back and forth. I on't have any more explicit picture than that. Can you move into where he is standing and try to see what he is looking at? 1 I picked up he w@s touching something-something rough. Maybe warm and ro@gh. Something possibly like cement. It is twenty-fourminutes after eleven. Can you change @our point of view and move above the scene so you can get@a bigger picture of what's there? I still see some trees and some sort of pavement or some- thing like that. Mig@_ t be a courtyard. The thing that came to mind was it might Up one of the plazas at Stanford campus or something like that, ement. Some kinds of Ian scaping. I said Stanford ca pus when I started to see some things in White Plaza, but I th nk that is misleading. I have the sense hat he's not moving around too much. That it's in a small al, a. I guess I'll go aheaq and say it, but I'm afraid I'm just putting on my impressions from Stanford campus. I had the impres- sion of a fountain. There are two in the plaza, and it seemed that Hal was possibly near the, what they call Mem Claw. What is that? It's a fountain th#'t looks rather like a claw. It's a black sculpture. And it ha@ benches around it made of cement. Are there any builoings at tpe place you are looking at? Are tbP9vPob1ftRb00),M4&k0M 4d of a courtyard. +0.4 +0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4 0 (psi parameter) CPYRGHT PUTHOFF &ND TARG: PF-VEPTW CHA AT 353 Approved or MeasNeNh6b7d9T69"!A8FX-96 -o0789ROO3100120001-4 Usually at some places there should 18.1974. be a building, large or Loo ,k at the end or the sides [5) D. D. Home, Lights and Shadows small'that the courtyard is about of Spiritualism. New York: . G. W. Carleton, 1877. of the courtyard. Is there anything [61 J. Coover, Experiments in Psychical to be seen? Research. Palo Alto, CA: I have a sense that there are buildings. Stanford Univ. Prbss, 1917. It's not solid build- [71 G. Estabrooks, Bull. Boston Society for Psychical Research, 1927. ings. I mean there are Some around See also ( 12, pp. 18 - 19 ]. the periphery and I have a sense that none of them are very tall.[81 L. T. Troland, Techniques for Maybe mostly one story, the Experimental Study of Telep- athy and OtherAlleged Clairvoyant maybe an occasional Processes. Albany, NY, 1928. two story one , (9) J. B. Rhine, New Frontiers of . the Mind. New York: Fiff at and Do you have any better idea of what Rinehart, 1937. your square was that you saw at the outset? [101J. Pratt and J. B. Rhine et al., Extra-Sensory Perception after Sixty Years. New York: Henry Holt, No. I could hazard different kinds [11)1940. of guesses. C. Scott, "G. Spencer Brown and probability: A critique," Does it seem part of this scene? J. Soc. Psychical Res., Vol. 39, pp. 217-234, 1958. It ... I think it could be [12 G. R. Price, "Science and the It could almost be a bulletin board ] supernatural," Science, vol. 122, . pp.359-367,195S. or sornething with notices on it maybe.[131-, "Apology to Rhine and Soal," Science, Vol. 17S, p. 359, Or something that people are expected 1972. to look at. Maybe a (141J. B. Rhine, "A new case of experimenter window with things in it that people unreliability," J. were expected to look at. Parapsychol., Vol. 38, pp. 215-225, June 1974. What kind of trees do you see in this 1151S. G. Soal and F. Bateman, Modern place? Experiments in Telepathy. I don't know what kind they are. The London, England: Faber and Faber, impression was that 1953. [161 Maybe 12 feet of * they were shade trees a C Scott and P. Haskell, "'Normal' bi explanation of the Soal- d " ibl t t n G no Nature, Vol. err oldney experiments in extra-sensory g. perception, y trunk and then a certain amount of 245, pp. 52-54, Sept. 7, 1973. branches above that. So that the branches have maybe a 12 foot[171C. E. M. Hansel, ESP-A Scientific diameter, or some- Evaluation. New York: Scribner, 1966. thing. Not real big trees. [181J. B. Rhine and J. G. Pratt, "A review of the Pearce-Pratt dis- New trees rather than old trees? tance series of ESP tests," J. Parapsychol., Vol. 18, pp. 165-177r 1954. Yeah, maybe 5 or 10 years old, but [191J. G. Pratt and 1. L. Woodruff, not real old ones. "Size of stimulus symbols in extra- Is there anything interesting about sensory perception," J. Parapsychol., the pavement? Vol. 3, pp. 121-158, 1939. No. It seems to be not terribly new [201S. G. Soal and H. T. Bowden, ne or terribly old. Not Mind Readers: Recent Experi- mentsin Telepathy. New Haven, very interesting. There seems to be 1211CT; Yale Univ. Press, 1954. some bits of landscaping C. Honorton, "Error some placel" J. Commun., Vol. 25, no. I around. Little patches of grass around (Annenberg School of Commun.), the edges and periph- Winter 1975. eries. Maybe some flowers. But not [221M. Ryzi, "Training the psi faculty lush. by hypnosis,".r. Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., Vol. 4 1, pp. 234-251, 1962. You saw some benches. Doyou want to (231CIBA Foundation Symposium on Extra tell me about them? Sensory Perception. Well, that's my unsure feeling about Boston, MA: Little, Brown, 1956. this fountain. There [241M. Ryzl and J. Pratt, "A repeated-calling Curved benches ESP test with scaled it felt " was some kind of benches of cement . cards, , J. Parapsychoi., Vol. 27, pp. 161-174, 1963. like. [251-, "A further confirmation of stabilized ESP performance in a They were of rough cement selected subject," J. Parapsychol., Vol. 27, pp. 73-83, 1963. . [261J. Pratt, "Preliminary experiments Wh with a 'borrowed' ESP sub- t d " thi i th ? k H h l i d hil i a ject, s J. Amer. Soc. PsychicalRes., Vol. ere 42, pp. 333-345, 1964. n e o you a s e o ng w 1 have a sense that he is looking at [271J. Pratt and J. Blom, "A confirmatory things trying to project experiment with 'bor- rowed" outstanding ESP subject," them. Looking at different things and J. Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., sort of walking back Vol. 42, pp. 381-388, 1964. and forth not covering a whole lot [281W. G. Roll and J. G. Pratt, "An of territory. ESP test with aluminum targets," Sometimes standing still while he looks J Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., Vol. around. 62, pp. 381-387, 1968. [291J. Pratt, "A decade of research and I almost sense with a selected ESP subject: I just had the impression of him talking An " , overview and reappraisal of the work with Pavel Stepanek, that it was being recorded or something. Proc. Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., I don't know if he Vol, 30, 1973. has a tape recorder 1301C. Shannon and W. Weaver, ne Mathematical then he is saying sorne_ Theory of Com- but if it's not that , munication. Urbana, IL: Univ. , (311Illinois Press, 1949. thing because it needed to be remembered. " It's 11:33. He's "A M zl R ti d i l i h l . commun mo ca ca o on, y , el for parapsyc og just probably getting ready to come J. ParaPsychol., Vol. 30, pp. back. 18 -3 1, Mar. 1966. [321C. Tart, "Card guessing tests: Learning paradigm or extinction paradigm," J. Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., Vol. 60, p. 46, 1966. ACKNOWLEDGMENT (331M. Ullman and S. Krippner, with A. Vaughan, Dream Telepathy. New York: Macmillan, 1973. The authors wish to thank the principal(34)" J subjects, Mrs. Hella "S C H t i i i i . Hammid, Pat Price, and Ingo Swann, onor who showed patience and on, vat . act tate of awareness factors n ps on, Amer. Soc. Psychical Res., vol. 68, pp. 246-2 57, 1974. forbearance in addition to their enthusiasm1351Proc. 2nd Int. Congr, Psychotronic 'and outstanding Research (Monte Carlo). Cotati, CA: Int. Assoc. Psychotronic perceptual abilities. We note with [361Res., 1975. sadness the death of one Of L V ili L E l ti H hi as . on. ev, xperiments in Menta Sugges amps re, .. our subjects, Mr. Price. We express England: ISMI Publ., 1963. our -sincere thanks also to Earle Jones, Bonnar Cox, and Dr. Arthur1371L M. Kogan, "Is telepathy possible?" Hastings, of SRI, and Radio Eng., Vol. 21, p. 75, Jan 1966. Mrs. Judith Skutch and Richard Bach, [381: "Telepathy, hypotheses and observations," without whose en- Radio Eng., Vol. couragement and Support this work could 2 2, p. 14 1, Jan. 1967. not have taken place. [391-, "Information theory analysis of telepathic communication " experiments, Radio Eng., Vol. 23, p. 122, Mar. 1968. [401-, "The information theory aspect of telepathy," RAND Pubi., REFERENCES Santa Monica, CA, p. 4145, July 1969. [411A. S. Presman, Electromagnetic Fields and Life. New York: (1) J. R. Smythles, Ed., Science and Plenum, 1970. ESP. London, England: Rout- ledge, 1967. 1421Y. A. Kholodov, Ed., Inf7uence of Magnetic Fields on Biological (21 C. Evans, "Parapsychology -What Objects. JPRS 63038, NTIS, Springfield, the questionnaire revealed," VA, Sept. 24, 1974. New Scientist, Jan. 25, 1973, p. 209. [431Y. A. Kholodov, "Investigation of the direct effect of magnetic [3) A. Gauld, 77te Founders of Psychical fields on the central nervous Research. New York: system," in Proc. Ist Conf, Psycho- Schocken Books, 1968. See also W. Crookes, tronic Res., JPRS L/s022-1 and Researches In the 2, Sept. 6, 1974. Phenomena of SpiritualLsm. Londori, (441D. Mennie, "Consurner electronics," England: J. Bums, 1874. IEEE Spectrum, Vol. 12, , d 1 t (41 R Ta -C'A w AM004f 13W%4!0 @1001 9 W !90%%%0 9 4 P ! .nd A. R. Lur a, il rev-, t . . C'ns w o , t. C . 2 , 354 CPYRGHT PROCEEDINGS OF THE IEEE, MARCH 1476 "PhrApsychology: Fiction or reality?"1641-, "The parafiormal-P. 11: Mechanisms Questions of Philosophy, and models," M.S.S. vol. 9, pp. 128-136, 1973. Information Cor 3., New York, 1974. [461R. Cavanna, Ed., Proc. Int. Conf. [651B. Julesz, Foun fations of Cyclopean Methodology in PSI Research. Perception. Chicago, IL: New York: Parapsychology Foundation, Uniy. Chicago Pmss, 197 1. 1970. [471E. D. Dean, "Plethysmograph recordings661 H. Puthoff and t. Targ, in Psychic as ESP responses," Int. Exploration-A Challenge for J. Neuropsychiatry, vol. 2, Sept. Science, J. White, Ed. New York: 1966. Putnam, 1974, pp. 522-542. [481C. Tart, "Physiological correlates 671 G. Feinberg, "Precognition -A memory of psi cognition," Int. J. Para- of things future?" in psychol., no. 4, 1963. Proc. Conf. Q ntum Physic and Pa-psychology (Geneva, (491D. H. Lloyd, "Objective events in Switzerland). N w York: Parapsychology the brain correlating with Foundation, 1975. psychic phenomena," New Horizons, 168 E. P. Wigner, "@he problem of measurement," vol. 1, no. 2, Summer 1973. ] Amer. J. Phys., [501J. Silverman and M. S. Buchsbaum, vol. 3 1, no. 1, p. '6, 1963. "Perceptual correlates of con- sciousness; A conceptual model and 1691J. J. Freedman and J. F. Clauser, its technical implications for "Experimental test of local psi research," in Psi Favorable hidden variable theories," Phys. States of Consciousness, R. Ca- Rev. Left., vol. 28, no. 14, p. vanna, Ed. New York: Parapsychology 938, Apr. 3, 1972. Foundation, pp. 143- 169, 1970. [ J. F. Clauser an M. A. Horne, "Experimental 70 consequences of J 1511J. Kamiya, "Comment to Silverman objective local t eories," Phys. and Buchsbaum," ibid., pp. Rev. D, vol. 10, no. 2, p. 526, 158-159. July 15, 1974. 521D. Hill and G. Parr, Electroencephalography.171)D. Bohm and B. Hiley, "On the intuitive A Symposium on understanding of non- Its Various Aspects. New York: Macmillan, locality as implied by quantum 1963. theory" (Birkbeck College, (531T. D. Duane and T. Behrendt, "Extrasensory London, England), Feb. 1974, Preprint. electroencephalo- graphic induction between identical[721J. S. Bell, "On the problem ot twins," Science, vol. 150, hidden variables in quantum p.367,1965. theory," Rev. . Phys., val. 38, no. 3, p. 447, July 1966. Md,d 541K. Osis, ASTR Newsletter, no. 14, 731 H. Stapp, "The ry of reality," 1972. Lawrence -Berkeley Lab. Rep. " 55R. L. Morris, LBL-3837, Univ. California, Berkeley, An exact method for evaluating preferentially Apr. 1975. matched free-response material," 74 A. Einstein, B. P dolsky, and N. J. Amer. Soo. Psychical Res., ] Rosen, "Can quantum-mechani- vol. 66, p. 401, Oct. 1972. cal description o physical reality [56"PK be considered complete?" Phys. idl G R S h ff . Rev., vol. 47, p. 77, May 15, 193S. . c me er, e ects upon continuously recorded tem- peratures," J. Amer. Soo. Psychical751 R. H. Dicke and 1. P. Wittke, Introduction Res., vol. 67, no. 4, Oct. to Quantum Mechan- 1973. Ics. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley, 1960, ch. 7. [571W. Scherer, "Spontaneity as a factor[76 E. H. Walker, "F:)undations of in ESP," J. Amer. Soo. ] parephysical and parapsychologi- Psychical Res., vol. 12, pp. 12 cal phenomena,' in Proc. Conf. 6-147, 1948. Quantum Physics and Para- [S81R. Targ, P. Cole, and H. Puthoff, psychology (Gen-va, Switzerland). "Techniques to enhance man/ New York: Parapsychology machine communication," SRI, Menlo Foundation, 1971 . Park, CA, Final Rep., NASA Contract NAS7-1 00, 1 une 1974.17710. Costa de Bea regard, "Time symmetry and interpretation of 59R. Ornstein, Me Nature ofHuman Consciousness. quantum mechanics," Lecture delivered ] San Fran- at Boston Colloquim for cisco, CA: Freeman, 1973, ch. 7 Philosophy of Science (Feb. 1974), and 8. Foundations ofPhysics (in 1601R. W. Sperry, "Cerebral organization press). i and behavior," Science, vol. 133, pp. 1749-1757, 1961. [ J. A. Stratton, i ectromagneric 781 Theory. New York; McGraw- 161)0. Bilaniuk and E. C. G. Sudarshan, Hill, 1941. "Particles beyond the light 6arrier," Phys. Today, vol. 22, [ A. Sinkov, Elementary Cryptanalysis-A May 5, 1969. 791 Mathematical Approach. 1621W. Pauli and C. G. Jung, Eds., 77te New York: Rand)m House, 1968. Interpretation ofNature and the Psyche (Bollingen Ser. LI). 180]P. Hoel, Introduction to Mathematical Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Statistics, 2nd ed. New Press, 1955. York: Wiley, 195 t, p. 27. 1631M. A. Persinger, "ELF waves and 81 R. Taetzsch, "D sign of a psi communications ESP," New Horizons Trans. J system," Int. J. Toronto Society for Psychical Research, Parapsychol., vol.1 4, no. 1, p. vol. 1, no. 5, Jan@ 1975. 35, Winter 1962. Approved For Release 2000/08/08 : CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 Approved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789ROO3100120001-4 ADVANCES IN REMOTE-VIEWING ANALYSIS By EDWIN G. MAY, JESSICA M. UT-rs, BEVERLY S. HUMPHREY, WANDA L W. LUK@., THANLJ. FRIVOLD, AND VIRGINIA V. TRASK ABSTRACT: Fuzzy set technology is applied to the ongoing research question 0 question o how to automate the analysis of remote-viewing data. Fuzzy sets were invented to describe, in a formal way, the subjectivity inherent in human reasoning. Applied to remote-viewing analysis, the technique involves a quantitative encoding of target and response material and provides a formal comparison. In this progress report, the accuracy of a response is defined as the percent of the intended target material that is described correctly. The reliability is defined as the percent of the response that was correct. The assessment of the remote-viewing quality is defined as the product of accuracy and reliability, called the figure of merit. The procedure is applied to a test set of six remote-viewing trials. A comparison of the figures of merit with the subjective assessments of 37 independent analysts shows good agreement. The fuzzy set technology is also used to provide a quantitative defini- tion of target orthogonality. Human analysts are commonly used to evaluate free-response data. Although there are many variations, the basic idea is that an analyst, who is blind to the actual result, is presented with a re- sponse and a number of' target possibilities, one of which is the in- tended target. The analyst's task is to decide what is the best re- sponse/target match, and frequently includes rank-ordering the targets from best to worst correspondence with the response. It is beyond the scope of this report to provide a critical review of the extensive literature on this topic. One aspect, however, of this type of evaluation is that analysts are required to make global judgments about the overall match be- tween a complex target (e.g., a photograph of a natural scene) and an equally complex response (e.g., written words and drawings). In a recent book, Dawes (1988) has discussed various decision algo- rithms in general and the-difficulty with global techniques, such as those used in rank-order evaluation, in particular.' According to Dawes, the research results suggest that global decisions of this type are not as good as those based on smaller subelements that are later CPYRGHT 'We are indebted to Professor D. Bem. Cornell University, for directing us to this valuable source of information. 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The mathematical )rmaqm underlying this procedure is known as the "figure of @FM) analysis. 'his method is predicated on descriptor ii ierit"Z I I Ist -chnc&gy, which represented a significant improvement over car- er jectifying" ."conceptual analysis" techniques, both in terms of "ob ie anS@ysis of RV data and in increasing the speed and efficiency ith wjdch evaluation can be accomplished. Humphrey's technique, hich &as based on the pioneering work of Honorton (1975) and s ex&sion by Jahn, Dunne, and Jahn (1980), was to encode tar- et an% response material in accordance with the presence or ab- nce 4 specific elements. It 191came increasingly evident, however, that this particular ap licati(M of descriptor lists was inadequate in providing discrimina rs th8. were "fine" enough to describe a complex target accurately, d ui8ble to exploit fully the more subtle or abstract information )ntenf%f the RV response. To decrease the granularity of the RV aluab", n system, therefore, a new technology would have to allow e anoyst a radation of judgment about target and response fe-a A@l -9 res %her than the hard-edged (and rather imprecise) all-or-noth- g bir&y determinations. Requiring an analyst to restrict subjective idgmeat to single elements rather than to complete responses is risisOt with the research reported by Dawes (1988). A 16climinary survey of various disciplines and their evaluation etliolq (spanning such diverse fields as artificial intelligence, lin and environmental psycholor) revealed a branch of math listiclo -natic;uknown as "fuzzy set theory." Q Q 4ZZY 5@! Concepts Q Fu2% set theory was chosen as the focal point of the RV analyt &iques because it provides a mathematical framework for al ted odel*ww situations that are inherently imprecise. Because it is such -I imotant component in the analysis, a brief tutorial will be pre- nted@o highlight its major concepts. We wish to thank S. James P. SpOtLiSwoode and D. Graff, CE, for directing us the fuZZy Set literature and for many helpful discussions. Mernbi 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 9*9 Population in 100 Thousands Figure 1. The fuzzy sct "kind-of-small" cities. 0.01 0.0 15 30 In traditional set theory (i.e., crisp sets), an element either is or is not a member of a set. For example, the crisp set of cities with population equal to or greater than 1,000,000 includes New York City, but not San Francisco. This set would also not include a city with a population of 999,999. The problem is obvious. There is no real difference between cities with populations of 1,000,000 and 999,999, yet one is in the set and the other is not. Humans do not reason this way; therefore, something other than crisp sets is re- quired to capture the silbJectivity inherent in RV analysis. Fuzzy set theory introduces the concept of degree of membership. Herein lies the essence of its applicability to the modeling of impre- cise concepts. For example, if we consider the size of a city, we might define certainfuzzy sets, such as veiy small cities or kind-of-smit cities. Using kind-of-small cities as a fuzzy set examplejewe might sub- jectively assert that a city with a population of 100,000 is definitely such a city, but a city with a population of 400,000 is only a little bit like a kind-of-small city. As depicted in Figure 1, fuzzy set theory al- lows us to assign a membership value between O.and I that repie- sents our best subjective estimate as to how much each of the pos- sible city populations embodies the concept kind-of-small. In this example, a population of 700,000 assigned a membership value of 0.3. Clearly, a different set of membership values would be assigned to the populations for the fuzzy sets veTy small cities, nwdium cities, large cities, and so forth; a population of 100,000 might receive a value of 0.2 for very small cities, but a value for 1.0 for kind-of- small cities, depending on context, consensus, and the particular I 0 _17 Q Q 17- 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 ou application. These membership values can be obtained through con- sensus opinion, a mathematical formula, or by several other I"Calls. Crisp sets are special cases of fuzzy sets, in which all membership vaiges are either zero or one. By using membership values, we are a* to provide manipulatable numerical values for imprecise natu- raRlanguage expressions; in addition, we'are no longer forced into m,%ing inaccurate binary decisions such as, "Is the city of San Fran- c large-yes or no?" 11n this example, the crisp set of all cities defines the universal set ofdlements (USE). The crisp set of cities with populations of one In @on or more is a subset of USE. The fuzzy sets very small, kind- of-@@all, medium, and large cities are fuzzy subsets of USE. M fu Umversal Set of Elements (D U3ince targets and the responses will be defined as fuzzy sets, we ingt specify a USE. The universal set of elements can be quite gen- ea and include all aspects of a given target pool, or it can be tai- lo%d to a specific experiment to test a given concept (e.g., include og geometric shapes). Since the method of fuzzy set analysis crit- intly depends on the choice of USE, we provide one example that %vQ derived from a target pool used in earlier experiments. What f(tows is only an example of how one might construct a USE. The 0 we use is not generally applicable to other target pools or other eigeriments. (DWe constructed our USE by including a list of features present ia) hotographs from the National Geographic magazine with ele- r6p obtained from the RV responses in earlier experiments. This Tsis presented in Appendix A as the actual coding forms. For Ao tr!h target features, we focused on direct visual elements. (In the tZcase of the RV response-derived elements, an effort was made _L to.preserve the vocabulary used by the viewers. Some of the ele- ni!Rits, therefore, are either response-de pendent or target-depen- dtat or both, whereas others, particularly at the more abstract lev- elsappear to be more universal across possible USEs. C)T . his universal set of elements is structured in levels, ranging fqkm the relatively abstract, information poor (such as vertical lines), to the relatively complex, information rich (such as churches). The current system is structured into seven primary and three secondary levels of elements; the main intent of this structure is to serve as a heuristic device for guiding the analyst into makingjudicious con- Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis 1991 crete element assignments based on rather abstract commentary. The use of' levels Is advantageous ill that each element level call be weighted separatel y and used or not, as the case may be. This ena- bles various combinations of levels to be deployed to identify thd optimal mix of concrete versus abstract elements. Of course, an@ such weighting scheme must be determined in advance of any ex-- periment. The determination as to which elements belonged on which level,, was made after consideration of two primary factors: (1) the appar-- ent ability of the viewers to be able to resolve certain features, cou-! pled with (2) the amount of pure information thought to be con--, tained in any given element. Some of these "factor one"! determinations were based on the combined anecdotal experiences, of analysts and monitors in the course of either analyzing or con-( ducting numerous RV experiments; some were determined em@pir-l ically from post hoc analyses of viewers' abilities to perceive 4 various4 elements in previous experiments. The "factor two" determinations were made primarily by arrang-1 ing the elements such that an element at any given level represents; the sum of its constituent elements at lower levels. For example, a( Port element (Level 7) could be considered to include canal (Level 6)'( and partially bounded expanse of water (Level 5). The world is not aZ very crisp place and not all its elements are amenable to hierarchicaf structuring. Certain violations of the "factor two" rule appearj therefore, throughout the USE example. It should be noted, how-' ever, that some of the more glaring violations were largely driven't by the "factor one" determinations (i.e., the viewers' abilities to dis- I cern certain elements) enumerated above. 4 To emphasize once again, it is very important to-realize that this( universal set of elements was constructed to match our particularo spe claFuifpets-, requirements. They are shown here toi illustrate the procedure. Any particular application of fuzzy set -tech- 4 nology to the analysis of free-response material requires an a @riol-P constructio* 4 n of an individualized, and improved, USE specific to the target pool and the goals of the experiment. 4 Target Fuzzy Sets Each target is defined as a fuzzy set constructed by assigning a membership value to each of the elements in the USE (see Appen- dix A). In general, membership values can vary continuously on the interval [0,1]..Ain this application they represent human judgment I md, thus, were constrained to vary in steps of 0.1. In addition, they nust represent the perceptual dimension used to construct the USE. n our example, membership values were assigned to each element or each of tile targets, according to a consensus (on an elernent-hy- @lement basis) reached by three analysts. This approach was used to -nitigate the potential influence of any single c`ode_r'& hiases, and idio-- ies. A numerical assignment, i.L (0 -_ l.L -, 1, in steps of 0.1), ;ync4 @vas rtgade for each element in response to the following question: Fiow asually important is this element to this photograph? Eigoded by this method, the fuzzy sets served as a formal defi- litiodPof the targets for the analysis. It should be noted that our JSE O!fined targets in terms of visual importance.' If other dimen- ;ions -are of interest (e.g., conceptual, functional, allegorical), the JSE 9buld have to be revised to incorporate them. Inign actual experimental series, it is critical that the target fuzzy iets I defined by analysts before the series begins. Because of the ote al information leakage owing to bias on the part of the ana- Yst, it@ an obvious mistake to attempt to define the target fuzzy set )n a Ckget-by-target basis in real tinic or post hoc. ?espo* Fuzzy Sets 0 00 To Aefine RV response fuzzy sets, membership values l.L are as- iigned-for each element in the USE by asking: To what degree am (the)@tnalyst) convinced that this element is represented in this re pons@O For example, if a response explicitly states "water," then the emqship value for the water-element should be 1. If, however, @n he raponse is a rough sketch of what might be waves, then the -nemffirship value for the water-element might be only 0.3, depend- ng oighe specificity of the drawing. This definition of membership ,alue V quite general and can be used in most applications. InAur example, responses were coded according to this defini ion (Wit still using the USE in Appendix A). The assigned tL's for le taacts and responses were one-digit fuzzy numbers on the in @rval:M,I] (e.g., 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, etc.). In some rare cases, two-digit ssigAents, (e.g., 0.05, 0.15, 0.25, 0.35, etc.) were made; any finer _J% .ssignpaents, however, were deemed to be meaningless. Thus, the espolge was defined as its fuzzy subset of the USE. Inipkied visual importance was ignored. For example. in a photograph of the ind Canyon that did not show the Colorado River, water, river, and so on would scored as zero. By definition the target was only what was visible in the photo- In an actual experimental series, each response fuzzy set is ated by analysts who are blind to the intended target. Fuzzy Set Defini i n -' F -g-ure of Merit .1.0 V 1-i > Once tile fuzzy sets that define tile target and the response i5ve been specified, the comparison between them to provide a figur?'of merit (FM) is straightforward. In previous work (Humphrey et@@I.. 1980), we have defined accuracy as the percent of the tar-get matdpial that was described correctly by a response. Likewise, we have e- fined reliability (of the viewer) as the percent of the response It was correct. The FM is the product of the two; to obtain a high Ell, it response must be a comprehensive description of the target Vp d be devoid of inaccuracies. The mathematical definitions for accuncy and reliability for the jth target/response pair are as follows. get lJL,,(Rj) and tLk(Tj) be the membership values for the kth elemenfDin USE for the Ith response and the jth target, respectively. Then ge accuracy and reliability for the ith response applied to thejth ta t ;are given by: 00 EWAminjlLjRj),l.LjT,)j 0 A 00 accuracyY a. = jw,@Lhffj) A Y,W,jminjtLA(R,),jL,(T,)j 5 I reliabilityij = rij X Y, lV*i.Lj,(Rj) 0 k 0 W where the sum over k is called the sigma count in fuzzy set terthi ogy, and is defined as the sum of the membership values. We hoe allowed for the possibility of weighting the membership values M@l weights WA in order to examine various level/element contributiG%s to the FM. The index, k, ranges over the entire USE. 0 For the above calculation to'be nieaningful, the jL's for'the t'w- gets must be similar in meaning to the Ws for the responses. As -1 noted above, in our definition of the membership values, this is i0t. the case. The target R's represent the visual importance of the 18- ment relative to the scene, and the response lt's represent the dn- gree to which an analyst- is convinced that the element is reps- sented in the response regardless of its relevance to that resporis@, With advanced viewers it might be possible to change the defi- nition of the response i.L's to match the definition of the target l.L's. In that case, the viewer must not only recognize that an element is 0 0 < 202 71tejournal oj'Parapsychology present in the target, but must also provide information as to how visually important it is. This ability is currently beyond the skill of most novice viewers. Alternatively, we have opted to modify the tar get Vefinition by . using the fuzzy set technique of a-cuts. In out exalle, an a-cut is a way to set a threshold for visual importance. t All t get elements possessing that threshold value or higher are consQered to be full members of the target set. In fuzzy set par lanc 0 111 a-cut converts a fuzzy set to it Crisp olle. The I-Citill Is 111al Cal the taWet set is now devoid of detailed visual information: a poten- iial t,*get element is either present or absent in the target set, re- gardL-s of its actual visual importance. Even with this concelAual chaiift in the target definition, the FM formalism described above 1'einiAs applicable, because a crisp set can be considered as a fuzzy set %ah all membership values equal to 0 or 1. It is important to recogaize that the a-cut is only applied to the target set; the re- spong set remains fuzzy. CD CD Assesevent of Quality of the Remote Viewing CD 00 Ijjs difficult to arrive at a general assessment of'liow well a given respose matches a specified target. The ideal situation is to obtain som5absolute measure of goodness of match. Although the FM is an a roximation to this measure, it is impossible to assess the like- liliocQ of a particular FM value because it requires knowledge of the U viewco's specific response bias for the session. It is possible to deter- min eneral response biases (May et al., 1985), but that knowledge is 02 useful on the average. For example, a viewer may love rock climgj@g and may spend most of his free time involved in that ac- tivit)gFhus, the general response bias would probably entail aspects -of ni&nt-ains-i--r-oc-ks,--rope-si-an"a-fonh@ Suppose-,-howe-.~e-ri--diat-4he- viewa spent the evening previous to a given RV session on ;I ro- man sig moonlight sail on San Francisco Bay. For this specific RV ses .3, the response bias might include romantic images of the 11100 t water, lights of the city, and bridges. _18e current solution to the problem is to provide a relative as- sess63nt of FM likelihood. A relative assessment addresses the fol- lowi$g question: "How good is the response matched against its in- tended target, when compared to all possible targets that could have been chosen for the session?" This is not ideal, since the answer de- pends on the nature of the remaining targets in the pool. An ex- ample of the worst-case scenario illustrates the problem. Suppose Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis 203 that the target pool consisted of 100 photographs of water falls, and the viewer gave a near-perfect description of a waterfall. (We as- sume that this description is not fortuitous.) An absolute assessment of the resulting FM should be good, whereas a relative assessmeb will be low. The worst-case scenario can be avoided, to a large d-g gree, by carefully selecting the target pool. (See the later section Quantitative Definition of Target Orthogonality.") (D To provide it relative assessment ofthe likelihood of a giv n en FMR. we define the score for one session to be the number of targets 4 out of a total, N, that have an FM equal to or higher than t.1lie A achieved by the correct match.' The answer to the question: Give this response, what is the probability of selecting a target that woull match it as well as or better than the target selected?" is n1N. A) W Consecutive RV responses by the same viewer are not statisticallo independent, nor can the responses be considered to be random iE any sense. The statistically independent random element in the se 9 sion is the target. Since targets are selected with replacement, undea the null hypothesis of no psi, the collection of scores derived over S2 series of m trials constitutes a set of independent random variable?, each with a discrete uniform distribution. Under the null hypothe. sis, the mean chance expectation for the score in each session G? given by (N + 1)/2 and the variance is given by (N 2 _ 1)/12. If Jr is the sum of scores from a series of remote viewings, then the pro ability of K, under the null hypothesis, can be obtained from t 16 h;6 exact distribution for the sum of ranks given by Solfvin, Kelly, ang: Burdick (1978): 1 CD CD P(K or less) K Ob m a - bN - 1 4 2 6@ N%, b-o (b m - I ... - ------------- ..... . ........ . .. _-..._....._... ------- --- ------ CD I f 711 is large, then the suni-of-ranks distribution is approxituatele normal and K/m has a mean of (N + 1)/2 and a variance og (N2 1)112m. Thus, a z score can be computed front: CD CD 0.5(N + 1) CD M. z(K or less) 12m- 5 N must be the size of the target pool from which each target was randomly selected, and for this theoretical discussion, we assume no ties. 0 G) victit r"a m it rmoir- v wrivig /i nat.ysts L, 05 mund Tnith To determine whether the new analytical approach was effective, a standard had to be developed against which-it could be measured. It wa dete mined that this standaTd-known as -ground- truth" 0 u_g r h consist of a "real-world" normalized consensus about the de- s -9 gree f correspondence between RV responses and their intended targeQ. TM-chieve this objective, we presented analysts (chosen from the W gener.+1 SRI staff) with the same test case of six remote-viewing re P'ns% and their associated targets. The test case was the data from sin,j viewer (177) taken from an experimental series in a 1986 hotcLMultiplier tube experiment (Hubbard, May, & Frivold, 1987). he i2sponses (i.e., two to five pages of rudimentary drawings with ome(PAssociated descriptive words) were fairly typical of novice (D ' iew%output and represented a broad range of response quality. he tgrgets consisted of six photographs of outdoor scenes selected rom cD National Geographic magazine target pool of 200. Thus, this ata ~ was ideally suited for an analysis testbed. Appendix B con- ains 1;4e "best" and "worst" trials (Sessions 9005 and 9004, respec- ,Livelypfrom this series in the form of their responses, their intended argey@ and their fuzzy set encodings (see the next section). Eap- analyst was asked individually for his sul:jective jud rnent _g bouC@qie degree of correspondence between the remote-viewing re- ponsa and their respective intended targets. The "degree of cor- espolMence" was purposely undefined; the analysts had to formu- late &ir own criteria. The only information provided was that espoi6es typically begin with small bits of information and even- ually!Juiminate in a composite drawing at the end. Appendix C onta[Bs the coding form that was used to obtain "ground truth." E,qM analyst was instructed to examine all of the responses and heir Stmided targets. Then, oil a session-by-session basis, lie was skedw(l) to assess the degree of correspondence between the -emot0viewing response and its intended target, and (2) to register his c?rrespondence assessment by making a vertical hash mark croso 10-cm scale ranging from "none" to "complete." Tgperform the ground truth analysis, distance measurements vere 4ken from the left end point of each scale to the vertical slash nark-6r each assessment. Let the distance obtained for the kth ses- sion from the ith analyst be given by x,.,. To account for analysts' bh1scs, [lie v,.& %vci,e normalized by a z transformation, Xj.k zjk = aj where li, and uj are the inean and standard deviation ol'tliejtli aiv alyst's distance scores, xj.A. The effect of this transformation is to convert an analyst's absolute subjective opinion to a relative one. For the jth 'analyst, the largest z,.k indicates that the degree of corre- spondence for response/target h is higher than any other pair in the series. It does not indicate overall quality. This type of transforma- tion was necessary since we wished to combine the assessments from a number of different analysts. To combine the assessments across analysts, we computed the mean z score for each response/target pair, k, as: IV* z, = T zzmf A. j-1 where N. is the number of analysts. The number of analysts was dcterinined by tile data. For tile best response/target pair (i.e., ses- sion 9005, k = 5) we computed the percent change of z, for every additional analyst. When the addition of two new analysts produced consecutive changes of' less than 2%, the process was considered complete. For this data set, 37 analysts were required before this condition was met. Figure 12 shows the normalized mean for each target/response pair, and represents a relative assessment of remote' viewing quality. These means constitute the basis for the ground truth against which the fuzzy set technique was measured. We re- cognize that this definition of ground truth is based on global deci- sions and may not be most optimal (Dawes, 1988). Results of the Fuzzy Set Analysis To effect a meaningful comparison between ground truth and the figure of merit analysis, we also analyzed the same RV series that served as the ground truth set by* the fuzzy set figure of merit method. The fuzzy set membership values (@t's) for the six targets and six responses were consensus coded by five analysts ranging from expert. to novice. A typi 'cal spread of R assignments was -t 0.1 with an occasional outlier. Some of the elements were vigorously de- bated until a consensus was reached. 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LEVEL SINGLE STRUCTURES SUBSTRUCTURES ton C-ft 1.0. psume bo 10 -bw- &A-vs- Mh@ (nKkm, 7-1 lears. ticks. IrmovoH spin ("wwst Is turAm .@= b"m 17 011% I$= "811116g.twGromiWen Is= -M..m - Is= mom CONCRETE DESCRIPTOR LEVELS 11 Experknem 7"al: Resp.frerq: Coder Vlower LEVEL SMILEMENT ELEVATION LANOIWATER No INTERFACE WATER VEGETATION AMOIEMCFJ OR VEGETATION FUNCnON it Pwt Pismon a sgnmft" Amid n n= V= n= bdviom U. 102 bo 30=00 0 ruww 31 080" -0 --'-1 (kManvift 36 mess, r 31 r bt 37 Mr--) Urb., 30 .= ". MAM"KID (13-10" 131 43= ON.CAMW wo. P-A - go 1861M expame of welow, so hft 0., (00-L 9" 4" 04099) 4F1 1 bw . iWAIVII, nuounds) sa= em, 44= ""Altak" exparmsecowmer M (boy) W" deft] W Wnd vemy 01"t sm rwwf bawl- LAppromed F. ir@,' p- 2non/m/na -c-iA-Rnpgr,-nnzFtggoo3lOOl2OOO1 CPYRGHT z t4 z z %. Approved For Release 3029ARWOEGNPOP PectkI.V 7 8 9 A- 1 Experiment: Resp.frarg: Coder: Viewer: QUALITIES LEVELCOLOR OTHER IMPLIED IMPLIED IMPLIED Nii VISUAL TEXTURE TEMPERATURE MOVEME AMBIENCE corgesled Icitz1fored. at YO- a" (mrac") 80= zncioth .3 hot so ---v so = b S l u olonse. y W 0(mve 72= 19.1dj #I= 1IJZ2Y Cold (,n., Cat IPW*k$l 63 73= I.&WI n= =rldy. &F humid unhtXndd. ntrairsoccl u 04= blus YA racil ed dry 1") Ira d In k o" y gg 03= C ween is= JoWowl 13= M*98d. iclausirrophoblic) rou hl nxibied 4 . g (PXPIO Is= obactmaid (krM. 6.= ow (SPAC0111; Vast, exparts") PW*) d im. so. yj or= brown 77= "Id"dr' 11099Y- ordered (0714d) (be") 111111y) 011= bisick 11= Id disordered (jurnbW unstjogneal W= Whits W1060141 I= n, 70= grov ARCHETYPES STRUCTURE ELEVATION INTERFACE UNIOUENESS AMBIENCE or 0 Ivert" rise ,ug,%j n, Vdark areas ;r= Carlos! mairmade ret. as = as Ice :i0h woo as $"I bg "ams) log d lof anere ) go= flat boundaries i0s namal no IC2 :a wale, nilwace .0 !ano sky 'WrIwe (honZon) ABSTRACT DESCRIPTO.R LEVELS i 11 Experiment: Trial: .Resp./Targ: Coder: Viewer: 2-0 & 3-D GEOMETRIES LEVEL RECTILINEARCURVILINEAR MIXED IRREGULAR REPEAT,, FOAMS FORMS FORMS FORMS MOTIF opwc,"10"d. I's = Its oil cylind- III= in'. hap" heire) form 1 001 r bm) 111 cone 113 (for.) ("99PUlar feat urell .as (Iredazold, 2 Pwarholl Other Potygorw 110 I!> 4 sKsoms: hisoagm, octagon. ex.1 it, Cme -hatch I -D GEOMETRY I's= "OPPed In= are (curve) 130 moo.-V curve 'to par&" W- in wow Iorm 00PI04 Vrb__W Ithe. 129 spors; 22 hairiatctat W. : diagonat Ir. V.shmM Its W--W V-shape In 7=1 cow ! Abprnvedror Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-00789R0 03100120001-4 E 1.0. 130 0 U E 1-20 0 U bo CPYRGHT proved For Release 2000/08/08 CIA-RDP96-007 An U, OQ 1,4 > ; .z z z tw .Approved For Release 2000 bo cli iz 0 102 9) -47 9L 3100120001-4 3100120001-4 'VO06 MIMS) asuodsai aqi jo o3.iql a2iej -@,U aan2t U /Ve ar .... . .. ... ....... ... -2 DO r (D ry 0- ilz @v sivklvuv 2uuw -alouLay Iq sa.?Uvnpv C*4 . ... . .. ...... ... ... ....... .. co 1 U601 laBjt!.L pOO6 tiolssaS) astiodmi w1i jo omi ;)Sua -gu to a- co C14 LO- LL V 0- CL 0ojoV2ks4vivjfo lvtunof a?I_L F, I AHL f. ISI rAIWET-Rl:sj@oNsti 9004 ElemenE Name Target Responhe 20 Roads 0.30 23 AgriCUILural fields0.05 ().On 32 Urban OZ00 0-.5G > 33 Rural, pastoral 0.60 0.50 44 Ibwn, village 0.00 0.50 -15 City 0.00 0.40 460 Single peak 0.70 0,00 47(D Hills, slopes, 0. 10 0.40 bumps. mounds 48CL Mountains 0.00 0.60 49-n Cliffs 0.00 0.10 600 Vegetation, trees 0.30 0.00 64 Blue 0.50 0.00 65 Green 0.30 0.00 69 White 0.10 0.00 70(D 9D Grey 0.20 0.00 76(1)Obscured, fuzzy, 0.20 0.00 dim. smoky 77 Cloudy, foggy. 0.20 0.00 misty 79 Weathered. croded,0.00 0.10 incomplete 80Q Smooth 0.00 1.00 Q 81Q Fuzzy 0.20 0.00 82Q Grainy, sandy, 0.20 1.00 crumbly 9000 Other implied movement0.20 0.00 91Q Congested. cluttered.0.10 0.30 busy 9200 Serene, peacefid. 0.40 0-00 unhurried 93' Closed in, claustrophobic0.00 0.10 ' 940 Open, spacious, 0.60 0.00 vast 95> Ordered, aligned 0.00 0A0 97 Buildings. structures0.00 1.00 980 Rise, vertical 0.60 1.00 rise, slope 99-U Flat 0.30 1.00 100to Light/dark areas 0.10 0.00 101?) Boundaries 0.30 1.00 103CD Land/sky interface0.50 0.00 104Q Single predominant0.6n 0.00 feature 1054 Odd juxtaposition,0.30 0.00 00 surprising 106CD Manmade. altered 0.20 0.80 107W Natural 0.70 0.20 108CD Rectangle, square,0.00 1.00 CD box 109W Triangle, pyramid.0.60 0.00 trapezoid 1 5 " Cone 0.60 0-00 I CD 117CD I rregular forms 0.00 0.20 118 Repeat motif 0.10 0.60 119 Stepped 0. 10 0.70 120Q Parallel lines 0.10 0.00 Q 121Q Vertical lines 0.10 1.00 122 1 forizonial lines0. 10 0.00 123 Diagonal lines 0.40 0.00 125 Inverted V-shape 0.70 0.00 126 Other anales 0.00 0.10 Figure B5. Target for Session 9005. I-ZIA A@- CIA J-Clt 46-- Figure B6. Page one of response (Session 9005, Target 1005). r > 0 (D CL -n 0 (D F (D M Q 00 0 > 1 0 -U 6 CD -4 00 CD CD CD CD Q Q Q 731 -Ph TABLE B2 TARGET-RL.spoNSE 9005 Element Name Target Response T. - THR 14 Spire. minaret, 0.000.20 0 0.00 tower 20 Roads 0.100.10 0 0.00 > 32 Urban 0.800-70 1 0.70 -0 3.9 Canal, manmade 0.000.10 0 0.00 waterway . 44 '16wil, vilhige 0.000.30 0.00 0 45 City 0.900.70 1 0.70 < 46 Single peak 0.000.20 0 0.00 (1) 0.00 CL .17 1 lills. slol)(s. 0-00(). N11111n. 1114itI1141% I () - 54 Unbounded large O@00OAU 0 0.00 expanse water n .5 Plirtially botinded0.30O@30 1 0.30 0 6 water --1 58 ltivcj, sit cam, 0.000.411)4) 0.00 crtck ;0 59 Coastline 0.000.20 0.00 (1) 60 Vegetation. trees 0.200.20 1 0.20 (1) 64 Blue 0.250.00 1 0.00 go r35 Green 0.200.00 1 0.00 (a 0.00 (D 67 Brown, beige 0.500.00 1 " 611 White (). (MM 0 (LOO I (I Q 70 Grey 0.100.00 0 ().00 Q 80 Smooth 0.100.00 0 0.00 Q 0.001.00 0 0.00 81 Fuzzy Q 82 Grainy, sandy. 0.001.00 0 0.00 crumbly 00 83 Rocky, ragged, 0.001.00 0 0.00 rubbled, rough Q 00 91 Congested, cluttered,0.700.70 1 0.70 busy . 94 opcn. spacious, 0.101.00 0.00 . vast 0 95 Ordered, aligned 0.000.30 0 0.00 96 Disordered. jumbled,0.300.00 1 0.00 unaligned 97 Buildings. structures0.800.90 1 0.90 98 Rise, vertical 0.001.00 0 0.00 rise. slope 99 Flat 0.501.00 1 1.00 100 Light/dark areas 0.100.00 0 0.00 to 0.201.00 1 1.00 a) 101 Boundaries 6 102 Land/witer interface0.30Loo 1 1.00 (D 103 Land/sky interface0.100.10 0 0.00 4 104 Single predominant(). 0.40 0 0.00 feature I () 00 Manmade, altered 0.800.80 1 0.80 106 0.200.20 1 0.20 107 Natural ........tW ---Rectangk--square-,-box C)- - C) III Cross-hatch. grid 0.300.00 1 0.00 W (). 0.00 0 _L 112 Circle. oval. sphereI () Q 116 Semicircle. dome. 0.30 0.00 hemisphere C) 118 Repeat motif 0.400.80 1 0.80 _L 0.201.00 1 1.00 " 119 Stepped Q 120 Rarallel lines 0.300.3u 1 0.30 (:) 121 Vertical lines 0.501.00 1 1.00 C) 0.100.00 0 0.00 122 Horizontal lines 123 Diagonal lines 0.100.20 0 0.00 125 Inverted V-shape 0.000.20 0 0.00 127 Arc, curve 0.301.00 1 1.00 128 Wave form 0.000.10 0 0.00 Totals 21.2022.0012.60 Advances in Remote-Viewing Analysis APPENDIX C "GROUND TRUTH" INSTRUCTION AND CODING FORM > 0 < Analysis' Insinictions for Remote-Viettying Series 90OX (1) CL Thank you for helping us perform a post h" assessment of a serie -nf S(P I-C1110te viewings-The targets were actually 35-inin slides that were attacli?d to a photomultiplier, a device to measure small amounts of light. We wtTe searching for possible physical correlates to remote viewing. (1) You will find in your packet 6 remote viewing responses labeled 9000-- 9006 respectively. Also shown is the target number of the intended phd& graph. We have supplied the original. rather than the 35-mm slide. We would like you to make a sul@ective judgment as to the degreesf correspondence between the remote viewing response and its associated m- get. Familiarize yourself with the task by first looking at all the respon0s and their intended targets. Then, on a session-by-session basis, rate yoo assessm ents. You are completely free to define what is meant by'Degrec6a-f Correspondence." Indicate yourjudgment by marking one line.across the appropriate continuous scale shown below. A vertical line near the "Noo" end of the scale will indicate that you feel there is very little correspondebe between that response-target pair. likewise a vertical line near the "C@101_ plete" end of the scale will indicate that you feel that there is a significi3t degree of correspondence. -0 to Many of the responses begin with a little information and build towad a composite drawing at the end. Please assess the response in its entiret)AC§S best you can. Thank you again. -4 00 Nonc compicte C) 9001 1034- C) _L 9002 1042 C) C) 9003 1065 Q 9004 1094 9005 1005 9006 1024 Accuracy = 0.573 Reliability = 0.594 Figure of merit = 0.340 REFERENCES DAWES, R. M. (1988). Rational choice in an uncertain world. New York: Har- cotori, Brace,jovallovich. HONORTON, C. (1975). Objective determination ofinformation rate in psi tasks with pictorial stimuli. Journal of the American Society for Psychical 4esearch, 69, 353-359. Hf=BARD, G. S., MAY. E. C., & FRIVOLD, T. J. (1987). Possible photon pro- 33uction during a remote viewing task: A replication experiment. Final ;§[Zeport, SRI Project 1291, SRI International, Menlo Park, California. HL41PHREY, B. S., MAY, E. C., TRAsK, V. V., & THOMSON, M. J. (1986). -Remote viewing evaluation techniques. Final Report, SRI Project 1291, %RI International, Menlo Park. California. I I M-i iRLY, B. S., MAY, E. G., & U-i-rs, J. M. (1988). Fuzzy set technology SP the analysis of remote viewing. Proceedings of the 31st Annual Conven- gion of the Parapsychological Association (pp. 378-394). JAEM, R. G., DUNNE, B. J., & JAHN, E. G. (1980). Analytical judging pro- (Dcedure for remote perception experiments. Journal of Parapsychology, t14, 207 -23 1. MAS E. C. (1983). A remote viewing evaluation protocol. Final Report (re 2yised), SRI Project 4028, SRI International, Menlo Park, California. MAa9 E. C., HUMPHREY, B. S., & MATHEWS, C. (1985). A figure of merit Snalysis for free-response material. Proceedings of the 28th Annual Con- pention of the Parapsychological Association, (pp. 343-354). PU-MOFF, H. E., & TARG, R. (1976). A perceptual channel for information Wansfer over kilometer distances: Historical perspective and recent re- I h P ceedings of the IEEE, 64(3), 329-354. ,ijearc . ro SOOVIN. G. F., KELLY, E. F., & BURDICK, D. S. (1978). Some new methods Mf analysis for preferential-ranking data. Journal of the American Society gor Psychical Research, 72(2), 93-110. TA& R., PUTHOFF, H. E.. & MAY, E. C. (1977). State of the art in remote qvicwing studies at SRI. 1977 Proceedings of the International Conference of ;tybernetics and Society (pp. 519-529). Zid*. R., CARLSTEIN, E., & BUDESCU, D. V. (1987). Measures of similarity 5mong fuzzy concepts: A comparative analysis. International Journal of CXpproximate Reasoning, 1(2), 221-242. SRgnternational 33VRavemwood Av. MABo Park, CA 94025 Q Q Divftion of Statistics Unftersity of California, Davis Davis, CA 95616 < r > 0 (D CL